49ers, Aiyuk, and where he will play in 2024 (not NE)
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
true but that spending should be on the lines imo. Spending on a WR should come last
They will likely be in position to draft one of the top OTs this year in the draft. LSU has 2 good ones and Banks from UT is a force as well. Because of this, now is the perfect time to nab the young elite or quasi elite WR.
As long as it isn't giving up a 1st, I'm good with it. If they can finagle it with a couple 3rds as the draft capital going out, I'm ecstatic. It completely changes the look of the WR corps by sliding everyone else down a matchup, and you have him for prime years while you have the cap room and are building the next round of talent that you're going to need to extend in 2027-2029. Get it done Eliot.
Thoughts:
1. He's almost certainly going to Cleveland.
2. The money would be high, but that is how these things work. Calvin Ridley signed for 4 years, $92 million. Aiyuk is way better and will be paid more. An argument can be made for staying out of the top WR pool for now or being like BB and never investing in a top WR, but if you are going to get in, you are going to spend this kind of money.
3. As long as they don't get too crazy with the trade offer I'd be OK with this.
1. He's almost certainly going to Cleveland.
2. The money would be high, but that is how these things work. Calvin Ridley signed for 4 years, $92 million. Aiyuk is way better and will be paid more. An argument can be made for staying out of the top WR pool for now or being like BB and never investing in a top WR, but if you are going to get in, you are going to spend this kind of money.
3. As long as they don't get too crazy with the trade offer I'd be OK with this.
I am sure that JuJu would drop everything for the chance to go play on the west coast.
THEY ARE SAYING THIS BECAUSE JUJU ISN'T A GOOD RECEIVER ANYMORE
THEY ARE SAYING THIS BECAUSE JUJU ISN'T A GOOD RECEIVER ANYMORE
I'm not sure how you are arriving at this conclusion.
The report from San Fran was that they've agreed to deals with both New England and Cleveland and the ball was in Aiyuk's court to negotiate and come to an agreement with one of them. So it doesn't seem like Cleveland's trade package is better than New England's. Aiyuk's primary motivation is money, of which the Patriots have plenty and can match/beat whatever Cleveland is offering.
If money is equal and we're comparing situations...is NE that much worse than Cleveland? Watson is a bigger "name" QB but he hasn't been very good in a long time and Brissett is arguably better than him. Plus the Patriots have Maye waiting in the wings. They both should have stout defenses, and he'd be the primary weapon on offense.
eh - JuJu will drop shit no matter where he is.
That's my read too - 9ers will take either package. If Browns are Amari plus multiple picks including a 2, I'm really nervous about what the Pats might be offering. Kendrick plus a 2 isn't close to the Browns offer.
Maybe that's what Mayo told Judon the other day--"We're working on something with SF, but you gotta get on the field."
Isn’t the logical conclusion that the Pats’ offer must be heavier on draft capital (since we don’t have an Amari Cooper to include)?
1. I might be wrong about this, but I took the announcement by the Niners to mean that they had deals with each team, so it was just a matter of Aiyuk negotiating a deal with one or the other.
2. Cleveland made the playoffs last year and has a better offensive situation with a better QB, OL, and more established weapons.
3. Because Cleveland is better, more incentive for them to fork out the cash needed to sign Aiyuk.
That said, if I am right and the Pats are the high bidders anyway, they win. I think I probably underrated the possibility of him coming here.
Mike Reiss has an article for ESPN this morning that the 49ers are “now willing to listen to trade offers”. That is very different from the report last night from nbcsports.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40745198/sources-49ers-open-brandon-aiyuk-trade-patriots-browns-interested
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40745198/sources-49ers-open-brandon-aiyuk-trade-patriots-browns-interested
Last edited:
I'd push back a bit on Cleveland having a better QB. Watson is a bigger name but his last good season was 2020. Over the last 2 years:
Watson in 12 starts: 59.1% completion, 2,217 yards, 14 TD, 9 INT, 6.4 yards per attempt, 84.1 rating
Brissett in 19 games (11 starts): 64.8% completion, 2,832 yards, 15 TD, 6 INT, 7.2 yards/attempt 92.6 rating
I don't think either are that good, but I think it's reasonable to suggest the Patriots have the better QB at the moment and that's before factoring in Maye and his ceiling.
Aiyuk probably doesn't give a shit but I think Cleveland is primed for a step back this year, they went 6-1 in one score games last year which typically isn't repeatable.
No way the Pats should trade away next year’s first or second round pick. There’s a good chance both those picks will be top 35 picks and the Pats still have core needs.
It’s not like they’re a WR away from the playoffs.
Also, he’s been playing in a loaded offense in SF. No telling how he would be as “the man”.
It’s not like they’re a WR away from the playoffs.
Also, he’s been playing in a loaded offense in SF. No telling how he would be as “the man”.
Isn't this the case for every trade on an expiring deal, where the new team would only make the trade if an extension is signed? There doesn't seem to be anything super-unique here (ie there isn't a no-trade clause) unless I am missing it
I agree about the 1st but with the 2nd and later picks, they're going to spend the pick trying to draft an Aiyuk. I'd rather cash it in for an already established elite player, one who is young and fits the Maye timeline.
I guess put it this way, would you rather spend a pick on the unknown of Ja'Lynn Polk or Brandon Aiyuk who has 4 years of real NFL production under his belt?
I see Aiyuk as a top 5 WR and a natural X who can play any position. I absolutely love Aiyuk. If he signed here you would likely have him as the X, Baker as the Z and Polk as a big slot. As much fun as Pop is he is just not someone who can add to the run game which is a huge part of this offense, especially as a slot player. Now, in theory, if Baker and Polk don't materialize you can still use Pop as one of your top 3 guys...
I would be overjoyed with Aiyuk. If we keep out 1 that means we likely can grab an LT in round 1 too... in that case we would have our legit #1 guy and our X, a toolsy QB prospect AND a LT. We would have the framework for an elite offense...
I would be overjoyed with Aiyuk. If we keep out 1 that means we likely can grab an LT in round 1 too... in that case we would have our legit #1 guy and our X, a toolsy QB prospect AND a LT. We would have the framework for an elite offense...
I'm weary of a guy who put up numbers as the secondary option in a great offensive system getting signed to be the primary option in a much worse offense (which the Pats would be) while also trading draft capitol to get him AND paying him. It's certainly a risk.
Why doesn't San Fran want to pay him? Is it just that they really can't afford to do so? They are paying nothing for their QB too.
Why doesn't San Fran want to pay him? Is it just that they really can't afford to do so? They are paying nothing for their QB too.
It doesn't make a ton of sense from the 49ers side, and I'm not really sure what changed for them to suddenly go from "we're not going to trade him" to "send us offers." Aiyuk asked for a trade and is holding in but doesn't really have any leverage and doesn't seem to be making a fuss or being a distraction. I guess the WR contracts exploding created a wider gap, but again, Aiyuk's under contract.
They are in GFIN mode, the team is built to win a Super Bowl now. Aiyuk's trade request seems financially motivated and has nothing to do with being unhappy with the team. He's under contract for this year. If I was San Fran, I'd just keep him, chase a title, and deal with after the season even if that means letting him walk. Flags fly forever. They also could franchise him, so the sudden shift is a head scratcher for me, but I'd love if he ended up in NE.
Purdy is going to get a massive raise in the near future, probably after this season.
They are in GFIN mode, the team is built to win a Super Bowl now. Aiyuk's trade request seems financially motivated and has nothing to do with being unhappy with the team. He's under contract for this year. If I was San Fran, I'd just keep him, chase a title, and deal with after the season even if that means letting him walk. Flags fly forever. They also could franchise him, so the sudden shift is a head scratcher for me, but I'd love if he ended up in NE.
Purdy is going to get a massive raise in the near future, probably after this season.
The first report being that "Cleveland and NE have deals locked in" and the next report being "the Niners are open for business" feels like an announcement: "the Niners want your #1 WR and a second rounder, and there are other teams already negotiating with BA, so hurry up if you think you can do better." I don't see the Pats coming out of this with anything.
As one of the resident Niners fans here, my take:
Aiyuk is the best receiver on the team. He's better than Deebo, he never takes plays off, he blocks like a tight end on EVERY play he doesn't get the ball and does everything asked of him (which is why he wants top receiver money). He also runs the best routes and is by far the best player to get seperation on most plays.
The ShanaLynch regime has always paid near the top for what they think are pivotal positions on their team (CMC, Trent WIlliams, Fred Warner, Bosa), but have been reluctant to go over what they think is the right value for positions they think they can somewhat fill otherwise (Mosely, Armstead, Buckner, Reid, Tartt ect.). I think they've already gone OVER what they want to in their current offer to BA, but the money Jefferson and others have got has made BA think he should get more (and he will get more if he goes to another team).
I also think we're still in a game of chicken, in that BA wanted to go to Washington ot Pitt and the Niners have now said, we can get you to CLE or NE. They're making him choose how much 4M or whatever per year matters vs the team and chance of winning. I think they're betting on him have Devonte Adams-type regrets and hoping he's going to re-sign in SF. But they're also weighing the fact that they need to pay Purdy next year and also have like 20 other free agents, not to mention re-working Trent Williams deal, possibly paying Deebo, Kittle and Warner again in the near future and guys like Mooney Ward who will have to be paid or replaced. So, they're open to trading BA.
On compensation, it won't be a first rounder, but it will be a second to get him if it happens. Remember the Niners really don't have to do anything here, he will have to play under his 5th year and then they could even franchise him for like 3 more years (that won't happen, but it does show SF really holds a ton of cards).
Aiyuk is the best receiver on the team. He's better than Deebo, he never takes plays off, he blocks like a tight end on EVERY play he doesn't get the ball and does everything asked of him (which is why he wants top receiver money). He also runs the best routes and is by far the best player to get seperation on most plays.
The ShanaLynch regime has always paid near the top for what they think are pivotal positions on their team (CMC, Trent WIlliams, Fred Warner, Bosa), but have been reluctant to go over what they think is the right value for positions they think they can somewhat fill otherwise (Mosely, Armstead, Buckner, Reid, Tartt ect.). I think they've already gone OVER what they want to in their current offer to BA, but the money Jefferson and others have got has made BA think he should get more (and he will get more if he goes to another team).
I also think we're still in a game of chicken, in that BA wanted to go to Washington ot Pitt and the Niners have now said, we can get you to CLE or NE. They're making him choose how much 4M or whatever per year matters vs the team and chance of winning. I think they're betting on him have Devonte Adams-type regrets and hoping he's going to re-sign in SF. But they're also weighing the fact that they need to pay Purdy next year and also have like 20 other free agents, not to mention re-working Trent Williams deal, possibly paying Deebo, Kittle and Warner again in the near future and guys like Mooney Ward who will have to be paid or replaced. So, they're open to trading BA.
On compensation, it won't be a first rounder, but it will be a second to get him if it happens. Remember the Niners really don't have to do anything here, he will have to play under his 5th year and then they could even franchise him for like 3 more years (that won't happen, but it does show SF really holds a ton of cards).
No, but if they could add a tackle or two plus Aiyuk it'd start looking interesting.
The questions are (1) can he play as well when he's not surrounded by talent and particularly (2) does he start to become a pain in the ass re: contract precisely when the Pats are ready to make a run again. Seems a bit of a luxury given the team, so giving up a bunch of draft capital seems unwise.
For those that don't want Aiyuk - because he isn't "elite", it's too early, or he's too expensive - I counter with two words: Mac Jones.
Is Jones good enough to be a starting NFL QB? Probably not. Probably.
Four years removed from drafting him, we still can't say definitively (well, everyone aside @Smiling Joe Hesketh) partly because the other 10 guys on offense ranged from mediocre to dog shit. If Maye isn't the guy, fine. Missed draft picks happen to every team. But being agile and pivoting away from them quickly is how to keep a team moving in the right direction.
Don't leave any room for interpretation. You have a rookie QB contract. Build around it with haste and provide him all the chances possible to succeed. If he fails, start over again in three years. Every player signed in the Maye window can almost certainly be cut/traded if needed.
Guys like Aiyuk can end up being the difference between ending up in a Mac Jones situation instead of a Tua Tagovailoa situation. The chance an Aiyuk becomes available at juuuuuussst the right time is rare. So you bite the bullet and grab him when he becomes available, even if it's a year too early or a million too high.
Is Jones good enough to be a starting NFL QB? Probably not. Probably.
Four years removed from drafting him, we still can't say definitively (well, everyone aside @Smiling Joe Hesketh) partly because the other 10 guys on offense ranged from mediocre to dog shit. If Maye isn't the guy, fine. Missed draft picks happen to every team. But being agile and pivoting away from them quickly is how to keep a team moving in the right direction.
Don't leave any room for interpretation. You have a rookie QB contract. Build around it with haste and provide him all the chances possible to succeed. If he fails, start over again in three years. Every player signed in the Maye window can almost certainly be cut/traded if needed.
Guys like Aiyuk can end up being the difference between ending up in a Mac Jones situation instead of a Tua Tagovailoa situation. The chance an Aiyuk becomes available at juuuuuussst the right time is rare. So you bite the bullet and grab him when he becomes available, even if it's a year too early or a million too high.
They could throw in JuJu, but he wouldn't give them much separation from any other offers. Hell, the the 49ers might ask for another draft pick to take him on.
I would like Aiyuk and I also don't think he's elite. But this is an argument that completely misses the point on Mac Jones.
Mac Jones is bad, we know he is bad because we watched him be bad, we saw his clear physical and mental limitations (even in his "good" year with a top OC, very good O-line and a ton spent on skill position talent). The idea of "well if you surround him with the greatest talent ever he might be competent enough" misses the point. Jacoby Brissett can be competent enough surrounded by enough talent, so can dozens of other guys that doesn't make them good QBs. We'll see soon, but good chance Tua is about to become a huge mistake, because they paid him, and if you're right and he's a "if you surround him with enough talent he's competent" guy that's a trainwreck coming because you usually can't do that once you pay your QB real money..... one reason SF is about to have to decide if Purdy is actually good or not.
The argument you should be making is.....
If you believe Drake Maye is GOOD then getting him elite talent as soon as possible is the right move because a QB will almost never be in a better position to win you a SB than on his rookie deal.
Interestingly this is what Bill did with Mac year 1 (then he cheaped out year 2, his OC left, how much of that was them not believing in Mac after a year.... we'll never know)
Getting and paying Aiyuk is an investment in the idea that you correctly evaluated Maye. Now, ideally you'd like to go O-line first, but beggers can't actually be choosers, you take what is available to you, and filling one of the key spots with money now gives you more flexibility going forward to fill the others.
My thought on this potential trade is that if the Pats give up their 2nd round pick in 2025 (as has been surmised here), then they can really dedicate the 1st round pick to a stud OT.
That could give them an offense to be excited about heading into 2025:
QB -- Maye, hopefully with a handful of games under his belt
RB -- Rham
WR -- Aiyuk, Baker, Polk, Douglas
TE -- Henry
OL -- 1st rd OT, Sow, Andrews, Onwenu, Wallace
Take a nap!
In other news, go listen to Matt Harmon's podcast "reception perception" if you want a take on Aiyuk's ability to get open.
SF needs future cap space for Purdy-- I believe is the rationale.
They should be paying him... The biggest unlock in Shanny's offenses are when he has a true-blue X receiver.
Well said.
In general... When you look at places like reception perception, PFF, and talk to the football nerd podcast folks every single one of them see Aiyuk as a top 10 WR.
Aiyuk is smart going for the money now. He can go play for a contender when this deal is up and he's pushing 29 (sorry Judon). That said I'd rather see what Polk and Baker can do and save the capital for two offensive lineman (one from the draft, one from FA is there's anyone solid coming up in 2025 ... this I do not know). We're at 4.5 wins let's not blow it on Aiyuk's next mansion to get up to a 6 win season. If the Pats curve ls looking good and WR is the need we can do that next year.
Just summing up the folks who consider Aiyuk as a top 10 WR and many of these folks see him as a top 5-6 guy: Mina Kimes, Dionte Lee, Robert Mays, Derrick Klassen, Matt Harmon, James Cho, Nate Tice, Steven Ruiz, and Ben Solak. That's just the people off the top of my head. Aiyuk is highly thought of by all the folks I listen to and who I think are worth listening to. These folks are not an echo chamber. So the fact that these people all agree on him is something to me.
#1 receivers like Aiyuk don't seem to spring free that often. Stephon Diggs to Buffalo, Tyreek Hill to Miami (edit: and Davonte Adams) ... who else was available recently? And who was available to the Patriots?
In order to get one of these guys, you have to:
1) Have the cap space to fit them in
2) Have the draft capital to trade
3) Have a trade partner that's willing to trade with you
4) Be in a place as a team where you need a #1 and are willing to give all these things up
Clearly, the Patriots felt this offseason that getting a legit #1 receiver was a priority -- hence the big offer that Calvin Ridley('s girlfriend) turned down. Whether you agree or not, clearly Wolf feels like adding a #1 1) Will help Maye develop and 2) Raises the talent floor of the other guys (including RB and Rham).
I wonder if after losing out on Ridley, they are ready to push some shit to the center of the table and take a swing here. It may not work, but I can see the case for doing it.
In order to get one of these guys, you have to:
1) Have the cap space to fit them in
2) Have the draft capital to trade
3) Have a trade partner that's willing to trade with you
4) Be in a place as a team where you need a #1 and are willing to give all these things up
Clearly, the Patriots felt this offseason that getting a legit #1 receiver was a priority -- hence the big offer that Calvin Ridley('s girlfriend) turned down. Whether you agree or not, clearly Wolf feels like adding a #1 1) Will help Maye develop and 2) Raises the talent floor of the other guys (including RB and Rham).
I wonder if after losing out on Ridley, they are ready to push some shit to the center of the table and take a swing here. It may not work, but I can see the case for doing it.
Last edited:
Steve Ruiz's Brock Purdy takes might as well be HOT TAKEZZZZZZ central. Just a masterclass of being wrong.
Everyone else I'm with you on though. And I definitely have a Purdy bias.
I don't really see how trading for an extending Aiyuk would preclude them from aggressively adding to the OL. OL is likely a 2025 offseason focus since there currently aren't any impact tackles available and those guys generally don't change teams often so you'd have to draft one. For better or worse QB is all set for 3 years at a minimum, the WR room would be Aiyuk, Pop Douglas and the 2 draft picks from this years class. The defense is largely under contract going forward, and they have the cap space to fit Aiyuk and others. Assuming they aren't giving up their first, they'd be in prime position to draft the 2025 version of Joe Alt with their top pick.
I'd be very excited by this as long as it does not include R1 pick, which it seems it won't. Bourne, Judon plus picks...fine. I also don't really think the money is an issue. I also think it's a massive mistake by SF (unless as @scott bankheadcase says they are making a leverage play and calling BA's bluff). SF needs to GFIN or they may have to wait another cycle to compete for a SB. They could address this situation after the season. Predraft I could have seen the logic, but now...odd approach.
He's under contract for one year, currently, but sitting out? Is there a trade (for lesser compensation from the Pats) that just gives him a year deal? Honestly, I think I might even prefer that. Give the kid a high priced weapon for a year. The team is still a year or two from being an actual contender.
No. Whoever trades for him is going to have to sign him to the deal he wants (likely 4+ years at $30+M a year). SF is only trading him because that's the deal he wants and they don't think it makes sense for them given their long term plan, and that they have him for this year at $14M and can tag him next year if need be. If he was willing to sign for less they would just sign him.