49ers, Aiyuk, and where he will play in 2024 (not NE)

NomarsFool

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No. Whoever trades for him is going to have to sign him to the deal he wants (likely 4+ years at $30+M a year). SF is only trading him because that's the deal he wants and they don't think it makes sense for them given their long term plan, and that they have him for this year at $14M and can tag him next year if need be. If he was willing to sign for less they would just sign him.
If they had the cap space. Maybe they don't. If he sits out, he doesn't get paid I assume?
 

scott bankheadcase

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If they had the cap space. Maybe they don't. If he sits out, he doesn't get paid I assume?
They have plenty of room this year. Their reported offer is somewhere between 26-28M per year. He simply wants more with what Jefferson and others have been paid. SF would happily re-sign him at their number.
 

cshea

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The 49ers currently have the most cap space in the league. San Francisco paying him this year isn't the problem, it's the future years where it gets murky for them.
 

Curt S Loew

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He's under contract for one year, currently, but sitting out? Is there a trade (for lesser compensation from the Pats) that just gives him a year deal? Honestly, I think I might even prefer that. Give the kid a high priced weapon for a year. The team is still a year or two from being an actual contender.
Brissett isn't a kid anymore.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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In an ideal world, the Pats would wait to get their WR after getting the OL settled.

But we don't live in an ideal world.

I just don't see much of a difference between trading for Aiyuk now and drafting an OT in R1 next year vs drafting an OT in R1 next year and then finding a #1 WR. Except you know you can go get the #1 WR now and you don't know if you'll be able to get a comparable player in the next year or two. Sure, the OT you draft might suck or Maye might not be the guy. But neither are reasons for waiting, IMO. In the end, it'll all come down to whether Maye is the guy and to find out, it sure woudl be nice to get him some more weapons.

If they aren't giving up a 1st, I'm in. It might not pay off this year but having him around for years 2/3/4 of Maye could be huge.
 

cshea

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I think it's more likely that Aiyuk isn't enthused by the Patriots or Browns and asked if there were any other possibilities.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Right, he's going to be a Steeler and the Patriots/Browns "news" was planted by SF to get the Steelers to up their offer.
 

Van Everyman

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Right, he's going to be a Steeler and the Patriots/Browns "news" was planted by SF to get the Steelers to up their offer.
I suppose that’s possible but it’s a shitty way to do business and doesn’t sound like it’s how Shanahan conducts himself with the Patriots who he seems to like as an organization.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I suppose that’s possible but it’s a shitty way to do business and doesn’t sound like it’s how Shanahan conducts himself with the Patriots who he seems to like as an organization.
Unless that Pats were never really in on Aiyuk and said "Sure, go ahead and drop our name. It's in our best interest that the Steelers, an AFC team, pay more not less."
 

Cellar-Door

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One question I have about a Steelers offer....

CLE was supposedly sending Cooper, and excellent X WR with experience in a Shanahan system.
NWE was supposedly sending Bourne a good versatile WR with actual SF Shanahan experience.....

who is PIT sending that the 49ers feel good about trotting out there?
 

Ferm Sheller

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One question I have about a Steelers offer....

CLE was supposedly sending Cooper, and excellent X WR with experience in a Shanahan system.
NWE was supposedly sending Bourne a good versatile WR with actual SF Shanahan experience.....

who is PIT sending that the 49ers feel good about trotting out there?
Aiyuk may have made it clear that he won't sign with NE or CLE, and therefore there are no possible NE or CLE deals, and so SF might be trying to work out the best deal that they can with a team that he will sign with and may be forcing his way to, the Steelers.
 

cshea

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I don't think San Fran is leveraging offers to pump the return.

I think the whole thing is in Aiyuk's hands. San Fran has told him here's our best contract offer. Either sign with us, or go work out a deal with teams X, Y, Z who we've gotten acceptable trade offers from. Tell us who you pick.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I don't think San Fran is leveraging offers to pump the return.

I think the whole thing is in Aiyuk's hands. San Fran has told him here's our best contract offer. Either sign with us, or go work out a deal with teams X, Y, Z who we've gotten acceptable trade offers from. Tell us who you pick.
Yeah, we're all just guessing, but my guess is that he's a Steeler by the time this washes out. We'll see.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I don't think San Fran is leveraging offers to pump the return.

I think the whole thing is in Aiyuk's hands. San Fran has told him here's our best contract offer. Either sign with us, or go work out a deal with teams X, Y, Z who we've gotten acceptable trade offers from. Tell us who you pick.
And PIT knows, directly or indirectly, what contract Aiyuk will take. So this is really about what SF will accept to trade him and not just keep him/wait it out. Even if CLE or NE are offering two first rounders it doesn’t matter if Aiyuk won’t sign an extension with either team, and both PIT and SF know it.

Meanwhile:

View: https://twitter.com/josinaanderson/status/1820916607842967962?s=46&t=1S4eWjX_rzBBrpPNddRPAg
 

cshea

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And PIT knows, directly or indirectly, what contract Aiyuk will take. So this is really about what SF will accept to trade him/not just keep him and wait it out. Even if CLE or NE are offering two first rounders it doesn’t matter if Aiyuk won’t sign an extension with either team, and both PIT and SF know it.
I'm still not understanding how San Fran reached this point but it seems to me that they've, for whatever reason, decided now is the time to end this either via trade or an extension. They leaked the CLE/NE thing to pressure Aiyuk into a decision, quickly.

Edit: It'd be nice if Anderson defined "stretch the offer." The contract offer, or the trade offer?
 

Cellar-Door

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Aiyuk may have made it clear that he won't sign with NE or CLE, and therefore there are no possible NE or CLE deals, and so SF might be trying to work out the best deal that they can with a team that he will sign with and may be forcing his way to, the Steelers.
Yeah, could be, but the 49ers are a SB favorite, trading him now didn't make a lot of sense unless they get a WR back. Getting Aiyuk after he sits out half the year is probably better for them than trading him for picks.
 

Salem's Lot

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I just really don’t get why he doesn’t play out the year, maybe win a super bowl, then have 30 teams compete to sign him in UFA if these teams are his options right now.
 

jodyreeddudley78

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Just summing up the folks who consider Aiyuk as a top 10 WR and many of these folks see him as a top 5-6 guy: Mina Kimes, Dionte Lee, Robert Mays, Derrick Klassen, Matt Harmon, James Cho, Nate Tice, Steven Ruiz, and Ben Solak. That's just the people off the top of my head. Aiyuk is highly thought of by all the folks I listen to and who I think are worth listening to. These folks are not an echo chamber. So the fact that these people all agree on him is something to me.
https://x.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1811434121341682000?t=WfP5XbpLl0BmuoZpC00X7A&s=19

I was going to ask what you thought of him, because I know you’re a film guy. Aiyuk is at or near the top of all the efficiency stats (1D/RR, TPRR, YPRR, etc.) but did so on the #30 team in PA/G, so some of his raw stats like targets are impacted by that fact. Also WR efficiency stats were dominated by WRs on teams coached by the Shanahan tree in 2023, and I tend to think that system aids efficiency stats. Still, he seems to be well regarded by scouts/NFL
 

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Cellar-Door

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I just really don’t get why he doesn’t play out the year, maybe win a super bowl, then have 30 teams compete to sign him in UFA if these teams are his options right now.
Because he won't be a UFA, the 49ers will tag him. Also he could get hurt. You're talking about risking what is likely a $80M+ guarantee on a 1 year 14M deal.... makes no sense for him.
 

RedOctober3829

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One question I have about a Steelers offer....

CLE was supposedly sending Cooper, and excellent X WR with experience in a Shanahan system.
NWE was supposedly sending Bourne a good versatile WR with actual SF Shanahan experience.....

who is PIT sending that the 49ers feel good about trotting out there?
My guess would be they'd be asking for George Pickens
 

RedOctober3829

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I'm still not understanding how San Fran reached this point but it seems to me that they've, for whatever reason, decided now is the time to end this either via trade or an extension. They leaked the CLE/NE thing to pressure Aiyuk into a decision, quickly.

Edit: It'd be nice if Anderson defined "stretch the offer." The contract offer, or the trade offer?
If they had issues with Aiyuk signing a long term deal at the draft, they should have just acted swiftly and taken the 34 pick for him. Now if the goal is to get a 2nd round pick for him, the chances of that pick being any higher than that are pretty remote.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Because he won't be a UFA, the 49ers will tag him. Also he could get hurt. You're talking about risking what is likely a $80M+ guarantee on a 1 year 14M deal.... makes no sense for him.
Right he could (should?) go the route Mankins went. Hold out until the last possible day before he is ineligible to accrue service time for the year. Then report, play out the season and presumably get tagged. He doesn’t really have any leverage here. He can try to shoot his way out of town but the 49ers are better off with half a season + playoffs with him this year
than a lottery ticket in April. And they’re in decent shape to franchise tag him after the season anyway.
 

TomRicardo

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Because he won't be a UFA, the 49ers will tag him. Also he could get hurt. You're talking about risking what is likely a $80M+ guarantee on a 1 year 14M deal.... makes no sense for him.
49ers won't be able to tag him next year. They have built a cap nightmare. He isn't going to stick with them, have no real stake if he stays healthy, and might mitigate his role.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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If they had issues with Aiyuk signing a long term deal at the draft, they should have just acted swiftly and taken the 34 pick for him. Now if the goal is to get a 2nd round pick for him, the chances of that pick being any higher than that are pretty remote.
Presumably they thought was enough of a chance of him reporting to play (which he has to do anyway) that trading him wasn’t worth it.

They’re best served playing hardball with him. If he wants a huge payday he needs to play for them this year otherwise his contract won’t toll. And he’s a lot more valuable in a Super Bowl contending season than a draft pick which is unlikely to yield a player half as good.
 

Cellar-Door

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49ers won't be able to tag him next year. They have built a cap nightmare. He isn't going to stick with them, have no real stake if he stays healthy, and might mitigate his role.
They'll be able to tag and trade him if they want, next year isn't terrible for their cap, especially since between restructuring into this year and roll-over, they can free some up.
Now they definitely don't want to, which is why they'll entertain the right trade, but if push came to shove they'd make the moves needed to slap the tag on him and trade him over losing him. One way or another Aiyuk isn't hitting UFA next year.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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49ers won't be able to tag him next year. They have built a cap nightmare. He isn't going to stick with them, have no real stake if he stays healthy, and might mitigate his role.
Their cap looks ugly for 2025 right now but it would be easy enough to create the space to tag him if they wanted.

Extend Deebo and cut or restructure Hargrave and Williams (if he doesn’t retire) plus plenty of other fairly low hanging fruit (Collins, Gross-Matos) where they could save.
 
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They'll be able to tag and trade him if they want, next year isn't terrible for their cap, especially since between restructuring into this year and roll-over, they can free some up.
Now they definitely don't want to, which is why they'll entertain the right trade, but if push came to shove they'd make the moves needed to slap the tag on him and trade him over losing him. One way or another Aiyuk isn't hitting UFA next year.
I think they’d be better served paying Aiyuk and moving Deebo.

It doesn’t make sense to trade him unless they’re getting a really good trade. Even if Pearsall looks incredible in camp and preseason and can take a lot of Aiyuk’s snaps (presumably he was drafted to be the heir apparent), the team is better served trying to win a Lombardi this year than they are taking mediocre trade compensation.
 

radsoxfan

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Because he won't be a UFA, the 49ers will tag him. Also he could get hurt. You're talking about risking what is likely a $80M+ guarantee on a 1 year 14M deal.... makes no sense for him.
For sure. Can't look at these guys the same as an NBA or non-pitcher MLB guy. The chance of a major injury is high in any given year. Career ending injuries are not common of course, but injuries that hurt your stock big time can happen a lot. Got to get your $ when you can in the NFL.

I'd like to see him on the Pats but a lot working against us. Brissett/Maye is not enticing. Head Coach/O coordinator combo is not enticing. Team likely will be bad. Cold weather, high taxes. Aside form ghosts of the Brady years, this is just about the worst possible destination for a WR.

We would have to overpay, even even then, he may not come. Seems like if he wanted to, he would already be a Patriot.
 

BigSoxFan

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For sure. Can't look at these guys the same as an NBA or non-pitcher MLB guy. The chance of a major injury is high in any given year. Career ending injuries are not common of course, but injuries that hurt your stock big time can happen a lot. Got to get your $ when you can in the NFL.

I'd like to see him on the Pats but a lot working against us. Brissett/Maye is not enticing. Head Coach/O coordinator combo is not enticing. Team likely will be bad. Cold weather, high taxes. Aside form ghosts of the Brady years, this is just about the worst possible destination for a WR.

We would have to overpay, even even then, he may not come. Seems like if he wanted to, he would already be a Patriot.
It’s possible he wants more volume. Only had double digit targets once last year. If you’re the Pats, you give him the bag and try to sell him on higher usage and the potential of Maye. Still not the most compelling sales pitch out there, especially for a guy who only knows SB contention, but it’s the only shot.
 

radsoxfan

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It’s possible he wants more volume. Only had double digit targets once last year. If you’re the Pats, you give him the bag and try to sell him on higher usage and the potential of Maye. Still not the most compelling sales pitch out there, especially for a guy who only knows SB contention, but it’s the only shot.
Fair, though I have a feeling every team interested is saying he will be their #1, lots of volume etc.

Maybe we can let him know we will be losing in the 2nd half 80-90% of the time and forced to throw a lot.
 

E5 Yaz

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Still not the most compelling sales pitch out there, especially for a guy who only knows SB contention, but it’s the only shot.
SB contention is one of the reasons why, at the end of the day, he'll stay in SF.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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lol. They are out on Aiyuk because they are suddenly super excited about….Thornton, Boutte, and company? Ok, sure they are.
 

Cellar-Door

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Oh well, worth a shot.

I do think there is some reason to be pretty positive about the current WR corps... the two rookies, Douglas and Bourne particularly, but a true #1 X WR would have been nice. Guess they can allocate a chunk of that $ to a Higgins offer next spring.
 

Van Everyman

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I mean, when you have a chance to have the ball thrown to you by—checks notes—35 year old Russell Wilson, you don’t say no.