AAAA Video Clips & Other Assorted Definitely MiLB Things

benhogan

Granite Truther
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Nov 2, 2007
22,841
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Maybe Fredriksson is correct and those concerns have been resolved. In my experience, it’s unusual for guys to move up the defensive spectrum at this point in their development, it there is Mookie. Maybe he is Mookie.
If the bar is a Mookie-level defender, we'll be disappointed.

The question the Sox may be interested in is, can he be a better defensive 3B than Devers? That bar is worlds lower.

At this point, it's fine to move on to the scout's recent commentary over traditional development & HS/GTech scouting reports. Especially with Fredriksson going out of his way to mention KC's arm strength. That's a green light for the Sox to continue playing him on the IF's left side.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
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Nov 10, 2006
8,489
I'm in the minority but I think Anthony and Campbell are starting by the end of spring training or a couple weeks in, either because someone is injured or because they've won the job.

I think Rafaela is going to get bumped unless he has an otherworldly spring training. His bat is that bad and Anthony and Campbell are reportedly good defenders and their bats are great bets to be better.

And Grissom is not a good enough defender to be full-time at 2B unless he's made some strides, IMO. I think he's headed for the outfield if he can fill out and be a 115-125 wrc+ guy.

My suspicion is Yoshida will have an extended spring training and Romy will be in AAA, as the middle infield is mostly right-handed now. With that in mind it will look something like this:

LHP
C: Wong/Narvaez
1B: Casas
2B: Campbell
3B: Devers
SS: Story
LF: Refsnyder/Grissom
CF: Duran
RF: Wilyer/Anthony (whoever hits LHP better)
DH: Grissom/Refsnyder (and cycling in others to give days off so Rafaela and Narvaez play the field to bump Refsnyder and Grissom and Wong out of the field)

RHP:
C: Wong (and maybe Sabol or Narvaez if they show out)
1B: Casas
2B: Campbell (and occasional starts for Hamilton with Campbell or Grissom pushed to third base so Devers is at DH - and maybe that becomes full-time )
3B: Devers
SS: Story
LF: Anthony
CF: Duran
RF: Wilyer
DH: a cycle of our bad defenders and older players, allowing for starts for Rafaela

Bench: Narvaez or Sabol, Hamilton, Rafaela, Refsnyder

I think once Yoshida comes back there will be a bit of a crunch. I suspect Hamilton will get sent down at that juncture. If everyone is healthy (they won't be for long!)
 

Cassvt2023

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Jan 17, 2023
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I'm in the minority but I think Anthony and Campbell are starting by the end of spring training or a couple weeks in, either because someone is injured or because they've won the job.

I think Rafaela is going to get bumped unless he has an otherworldly spring training. His bat is that bad and Anthony and Campbell are reportedly good defenders and their bats are great bets to be better.

And Grissom is not a good enough defender to be full-time at 2B unless he's made some strides, IMO. I think he's headed for the outfield if he can fill out and be a 115-125 wrc+ guy.

My suspicion is Yoshida will have an extended spring training and Romy will be in AAA, as the middle infield is mostly right-handed now. With that in mind it will look something like this:

LHP
C: Wong/Narvaez
1B: Casas
2B: Campbell
3B: Devers
SS: Story
LF: Refsnyder/Grissom
CF: Duran
RF: Wilyer/Anthony (whoever hits LHP better)
DH: Grissom/Refsnyder (and cycling in others to give days off so Rafaela and Narvaez play the field to bump Refsnyder and Grissom and Wong out of the field)

RHP:
C: Wong (and maybe Sabol or Narvaez if they show out)
1B: Casas
2B: Campbell (and occasional starts for Hamilton with Campbell or Grissom pushed to third base so Devers is at DH - and maybe that becomes full-time )
3B: Devers
SS: Story
LF: Anthony
CF: Duran
RF: Wilyer
DH: a cycle of our bad defenders and older players, allowing for starts for Rafaela

Bench: Narvaez or Sabol, Hamilton, Rafaela, Refsnyder

I think once Yoshida comes back there will be a bit of a crunch. I suspect Hamilton will get sent down at that juncture. If everyone is healthy (they won't be for long!)
I'm completely with you on Yoshida. I think they'll hold him back until he shows he if fully healthy, and I stated this somewhere above. I wouldn't mind seeing something like this to start the season against RH SP, which is about 70% of the starts: (This assumes they give KC & RA some more AAA at bats)

Duran LF
Devers 3B
Casas 1B
Story SS
Abreu RF
Wong C
Grissom DH
Hamilton 2B
Rafaela CF

Cora loved having those 3 speedsters wrapping around the lineup last year. And against LH SP:

Duran LF
Refsnyder RF
Devers DH
Story SS
Casas 1B
Wong C
Grissom 2B
Romy 3B
Rafaela CF
 

pjheff

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Jan 4, 2003
1,641
If the bar is a Mookie-level defender, we'll be disappointed.
Mookie is the rare defender who has moved up the defensive spectrum as he has aged. Maybe lightning strikes twice, but I’m skeptical.

The question the Sox may be interested in is, can he be a better defensive 3B than Devers? That bar is worlds lower.
The same could be asked of Grissom. The issue continues to be Yoshida, though I wonder if he’ll be ready to break Spring Training with the big league club.

At this point, it's fine to move on to the scout's recent commentary over traditional development & HS/GTech scouting reports. Especially with Fredriksson going out of his way to mention KC's arm strength. That's a green light for the Sox to continue playing him on the IF's left side.
The scout isn’t exactly an unbiased source, like the IF coach who vouched for Grissom. I look forward to seeing him with my own eyes in five weeks.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
22,841
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Mookie is the rare defender who has moved up the defensive spectrum as he has aged. Maybe lightning strikes twice, but I’m skeptical.
Mookie is a Unicorn. He should never be used in any kind of comparison in the field or at the bat.

You don't need lightning to strike twice since 100s of players have gone back and forth between 2B & 3B.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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I don't think KCamp would be a good 3B, but that's not really based on anything.

The Devers is a bad 3B & Bregman is a good 3B stuff is interesting. & while it's true... it's interesting trying to figure out how much it actually matters.

I like OAA better than DRS, so we'll use FRV for this, which is basically the translation of outs to runs.

Devers was a -5 last year & Bregman was +5 runs. So, if that's accurate, over the course of the season, having Bregman at 3B instead of Devers would have allowed the Red Sox to prevent 10 runs on the season.

The Red Sox allowed 747 runs last year, so with Bregman they allow 737. They scored 751 runs.

That would increase their pythag wins from 81.5 to 82.5. So that's not nothing, but it's also not like a big needle mover. Bregman is also 2.5 years older than Devers so one would generally expect his defense to fall off sooner, but there are of course arguments to the contrary.

The other piece is the offense. If we sign Bregman with the intention of replacing Yoshida by moving Devers to DH, the other piece is how many runs more do you score with Bregman over Yoshida?

Bregman had a .323 xwOBA & a 118 wRC+ last year, & Steamer projects him for 122 next year.

Yoshida, who is about 9 months older than Bregman, had a .324 xwOBA & a 115 wRC+, & Steamer projects him for a 117 next year.

Steamer projects Bregman to be worth 15.3 runs above average offensively in 664 PAs & Yoshida to be worth 8.4 in 520. While it is reasonable to project that Bregman may have more PAs in a full season than Yoshida, that's not particularly descriptive if Yoshida is complemented by a Refsnyder or someone. But rather than getting too into the weeds on that, let's just give Yoshida the same # of PAs as Bregman which would take him to 10.7 RAA.

So in the same # of PAs, Steamer projects Bregman to be worth 4.6 more runs. Let's round that to 5.

So in Bregman world, the Red Sox have now outscored their opponents 756 to 737, which is a pythag of 83.1.

So using this really rough mathmatical construct, Bregman at 3B & Devers at DH is worth about 1.6 wins more than Devers at 3B & Yoshida at DH.

Is a marginal increase of 1.6 wins worth $30m per year, their 2nd round pick & $500k of IFA $? I guess it's hard to say in a vacuum. Technically they could probably be able to save about $7m/year of that amount by subsidizing Yoshida.

I just realized if I use Steamer projections they only predict a 5.6 run difference on defense between Bregman & Devers for '25, so using that we are back to about 1 marginal win by adding Bregman, but either way.

Let's compare that to the catcher situation, though...Steamer projects Wong will be worth -4.4 runs on offense & -3.0 runs on defense in 369 PAs & Narváez for -4.2 & 3.7 in 194 PAs...

The oddest thing is if that's accurate, they could improve by 3 runs just by switching Narváez to Wong's PAs & Wong to Narváez's.

But for the sake of this exercise, let's just plan on replacing Wong & letting Narváez be the backup.

Yasmani Grandal has a Steamer projection of -1.8 offense & 5.3 defense in 240 PAs. If you give him Wong's 369 PAs, that would be a total of +5.4 runs, compared to Wong's -7.4 runs. That's a swing of 12.8 runs...rounding we will call it scoring 2 more runs & allowing 11 less.

So in Grandal over Wong world we're at 753 to 736, for a pythag of 82.8 wins.

So Bregman is worth 1.6 marginal wins & Grandal is worth 1.3 marginal wins.

Grandal is a free agent who signed a 1 year, $2.5m contract last off season. He would not require a long term commitment, or cause the Red Sox to lose a draft pick or IFA money.

I mean, of course they can do more than one thing... but I think the main thing this exercise illustrates is how much easier it is of a fit to upgrade at catcher than it is by adding Bregman.

Another guy who has been thrown out there is Sean Murphy, who Steamer projects at +1.5 & +10.6 in 420 PAs. If we give him all of Wong's PAs, & 51 of Narváez's it's a 19.7 run swing (83.8 pythag).

Murphy would obviously require some sort of trade compensation, but he has 4/$60m renaining on his contract with a team option for '29, & his AAV is only $12.2m. Not sure if that bumps up to $15m if he's traded. They keep changing the rules on that stuff, but either way.
What's the upgrade from Yoshida to Alonso?

Using a similar Steamer method as I did for the Bregman acquisition, but instead assuming Alonso & Yoshida only play DH...when you normalize Yoshida to Alonso's # of PAs, Yoshida is worth 9.9 runs on offense & Alonso is worth 16.3. With an extra 6.4 more runs in a season, now they're outscoring their opponents 757 to 747, going from 81.5 pythag wins to 82.1 pythag wins at the cost of Alonso's contract minus whatever they can get someone to take of Yoshida's contract, & losing a comp pick & $500k of IFA $$$ next year.
 

pjheff

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Jan 4, 2003
1,641
Mookie is a Unicorn. He should never be used in any kind of comparison in the field or at the bat.
That’s the source of my skepticism. Lots of developmental SS’s end up at 2B. Few go the other direction successfully.

You don't need lightning to strike twice since 100s of players have gone back and forth between 2B & 3B.
[/QUOTE]

Can you point me to some developmental 2Bmen who became plus defensive 3Bmen? I’m not saying that they don’t exist, but none springs to mind.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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Random gripe: I find the "Story can't possibly be counted on to stay healthy" because he had 1 arm surgery & 1 fluke injury very reminiscent of the similarly awful takes about Chris Sale not possibly being healthy last year.

Also... it never ceases to amaze me when people think their opinions are so important they needs to be repeated 873 million times in every thread. But hey, if they're sufficiently negative they can still count as signal, right?

/rant ❤
 

LogansDad

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Nov 15, 2006
33,201
Alamogordo
My liberal use of the Ignore function is making the whole site very difficult to follow. I am seriously considering removing my SoSH bookmark, if I am being totally honest. I just am not getting as much good from it as I used to in the past.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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I've said this before, but the cool, smart thing the Dodgers have done isn't the deferrals... it's the deferrals + a nice signing bonus which ups the present value while keeping the cap hit down.

The thing is, though, any fiscally solvent MLB team could do it, so good for them & their fans. Might have to catch a game or 2 this year.
 

LogansDad

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Nov 15, 2006
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Alamogordo
I've said this before, but the cool, smart thing the Dodgers have done isn't the deferrals... it's the deferrals + a nice signing bonus which ups the present value while keeping the cap hit down.

The thing is, though, any fiscally solvent MLB team could do it, so good for them & their fans. Might have to catch a game or 2 this year.
I am curious how much of the calculus for other teams not doing it as much has to do with wanting to be able to sell their teams in the future. I can't imagine that paying a 50 year old Ohtani for work he did 20 years before has no effect on the bottom line, I just don't know how much of an effect it really is.

And these teams essentially print money, anyway, so...
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
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Nov 10, 2006
8,489
I am curious how much of the calculus for other teams not doing it as much has to do with wanting to be able to sell their teams in the future. I can't imagine that paying a 50 year old Ohtani for work he did 20 years before has no effect on the bottom line, I just don't know how much of an effect it really is.

And these teams essentially print money, anyway, so...
There's also risk. A lot of owners don't want to get caught with their pants down, I think, if sales tank or there's a recession or something.

I mean, there's a reason only one team is going there. Obviously these owners have a profit motive and a risk assessment with their teams.
 

20Ks

New Member
Jul 11, 2024
204
I am curious how much of the calculus for other teams not doing it as much has to do with wanting to be able to sell their teams in the future. I can't imagine that paying a 50 year old Ohtani for work he did 20 years before has no effect on the bottom line, I just don't know how much of an effect it really is.

And these teams essentially print money, anyway, so...
Ohtani is a special case, along with Yamamoto, was brilliant strategy. Last year Dodgers agreed to about $20m+ in yearly ad revenue from Japan (Al Nippon, Toyo, Kowa Daiso etc) and now dominate the Japanese market. Reportedly 80% of all Japanese that visit LA also visit Dodger stadium. This will be generational (at least) and a multiplier effect on the value of the team. Not to mention as seen with Sasaki, they will get nearly every Japanese player coming to MLB.
 

20Ks

New Member
Jul 11, 2024
204
Random gripe: I find the "Story can't possibly be counted on to stay healthy" because he had 1 arm surgery & 1 fluke injury very reminiscent of the similarly awful takes about Chris Sale not possibly being healthy last year.

Also... it never ceases to amaze me when people think their opinions are so important they needs to be repeated 873 million times in every thread. But hey, if they're sufficiently negative they can still count as signal, right?

/rant ❤
Or you know, maybe have multiple opinions on things. The problem is when your entire argument is you know better, withouth really knowing about the player development aparatus, scouting, training, rehabilitation, analytics, etc, you can only make that one argument.

See you get to have many, realize that there are many shades of gray, and are willing to change as facts change. The reason being, you have the intellectual curiosity to learn about those factors before opining. I'm not saying everyone needs to, or should. (I certainly don''t and appreciate everything you do) but it would soften their "I know better" stances.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
Random gripe: I find the "Story can't possibly be counted on to stay healthy" because he had 1 arm surgery & 1 fluke injury very reminiscent of the similarly awful takes about Chris Sale not possibly being healthy last year.

Also... it never ceases to amaze me when people think their opinions are so important they needs to be repeated 873 million times in every thread. But hey, if they're sufficiently negative they can still count as signal, right?

/rant ❤
The "injury prone" thing is so demeaning. Guy got injured, worked harder than we ever have or will to get healthy, had another injury. It's a lazy term although I think a lot of people throw that phrase around online because they're calling him a pussy. It's pathetic and says more about the people saying it. The rest of the internet is worse than this place but after the last few years' horrific injury luck people are going there. The Mayer part is awful too. It's a contact sport, he's had some bad luck. Guys' bodies have to adjust to pro ball, especially high schoolers I'd think?

Some guys are injury prone because they have a physical deficiency that causes them to get hurt repeatedly, like NBA giants with bad knees. That's it.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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There's also risk. A lot of owners don't want to get caught with their pants down, I think, if sales tank or there's a recession or something.

I mean, there's a reason only one team is going there. Obviously these owners have a profit motive and a risk assessment with their teams.
Uber rich people can make more than the discount on deferred comp with their money, even in a recession (especially in a recession in some cases).

I'm sure someone has done this breakdown, but if you look at these contracts like the Scott one with a $20m signing bonus & $21m of deferrals, the present value is going to be significantly higher than the AAV & will be more in line with the actual sticker price.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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Or you know, maybe have multiple opinions on things. The problem is when your entire argument is you know better, withouth really knowing about the player development aparatus, scouting, training, rehabilitation, analytics, etc, you can only make that one argument.

See you get to have many, realize that there are many shades of gray, and are willing to change as facts change. The reason being, you have the intellectual curiosity to learn about those factors before opining. I'm not saying everyone needs to, or should. (I certainly don''t and appreciate everything you do) but it would soften their "I know better" stances.
Yeah...I feel like I know a lot for a random guy on the internet who only really got into the MiLB stuff because no one else was posting about it, but I don't have a fraction of the full puzzle & learning more stuff is always fun.
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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Kelly got a ton of shit in the second half for falling off so hard that I think people forgot how good he was before the break. He has some real weapons if he can get comfortable in higher leverage spots.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
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Nov 10, 2006
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Kelly got a ton of shit in the second half for falling off so hard that I think people forgot how good he was before the break. He has some real weapons if he can get comfortable in higher leverage spots.
The guy's stuff is without a doubt fantastic. Biggest thing for him is just limiting the walks.
 

JM3

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Kelly got a ton of shit in the second half for falling off so hard that I think people forgot how good he was before the break. He has some real weapons if he can get comfortable in higher leverage spots.
I wonder how much of the fall off was an illusion & how much was real...

Through end of June...

29.1 IP, 1.53 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, 9.8 k/9, 4 bb/9, .179 BABIP, 0.61 HR/9

July 1st on...

27.1 IP, 6.59 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, 9.6 k/9, 4.6 bb/9, .306 BABIP, 2.63 HR/9

So got both worse, & a lot less lucky.
 

JM3

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Of course, if you cut it off before his last 4 games, including the disastrous 5 runs in 0.1 innings, his back half was OK, too...

25.2 IP, 4.21 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 9.1 k/9, 3.2 bb/9, .250 BABIP, 2.83 HR/9.

What's my point? I don't really have one, except relievers operate with really small sample sizes. & hopefully he has figured some more stuff out, figured out how to control his pitches a bit better, & can be a medium leverage option this year.

Kelly also had some real problems against lefties (.362 wOBA compared to .252 against righties), including a huge walk rate (5.8 bb/9 compared to 3.2 against righties).
 

Tuor

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Mar 20, 2024
46
What exactly does "building up a bigger engine" mean? Bigger pitching repertoire? More stamina? Better stuff? Higher velocity? I am not tracking with the "big engine" metaphor in that Tweet.
 

JM3

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What exactly does "building up a bigger engine" mean? Bigger pitching repertoire? More stamina? Better stuff? Higher velocity? I am not tracking with the "big engine" metaphor in that Tweet.
Per ChatGPT:

In baseball, when someone says a pitcher is building up a "bigger engine," it refers to the process of improving their physical capabilities to increase overall performance. This often includes:

1) Strength and Power Development: Building muscle and explosive power to throw harder and sustain velocity deeper into games.

2) Endurance and Durability: Enhancing stamina so the pitcher can handle a higher workload (more innings or pitches) without losing effectiveness.

3) Mechanical Efficiency: Improving mechanics to maximize output (velocity, movement, and control) while minimizing strain on the body.

4) Injury Prevention: Strengthening key muscle groups (e.g., shoulder, core, legs) to withstand the physical demands of pitching.

Essentially, a "bigger engine" means upgrading their physical and biomechanical foundation to perform at a higher level consistently.
 

JM3

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I might just outsource all questions directed to me to ChatGPT.

Here it is on that Roman Anthony comp question from the other day...

Roman Anthony, a highly regarded prospect in the Boston Red Sox system, is an athletic outfielder with a strong hit tool, plus power potential, and advanced plate discipline. A good MLB comp for him could be J.D. Drew, particularly for his combination of smooth swing mechanics, patience at the plate, and ability to hit for both average and power. Both project as strong defensive assets in the outfield with the potential for Gold Glove-level defense.

If Anthony continues to develop his power and speed combo, another comp might be Kyle Tucker of the Houston Astros. Tucker possesses a similar mix of power, patience, and the ability to contribute on both sides of the ball, including sneaky baserunning value.

Would you like a more detailed breakdown of his skill set or his progression in the minors?
 

JM3

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.
Gosh I hope not, I like what you have to say. Though I recognize you have a life, so no pressure.
Lol I just spent the last 30 minutes trying to have it help me finish out the Red Sox roster & it kept getting worse & worse so I guess y'all are stuck with me.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
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Nov 10, 2006
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.

Lol I just spent the last 30 minutes trying to have it help me finish out the Red Sox roster & it kept getting worse & worse so I guess y'all are stuck with me.
As a writer whose profession is threatened by this Moloch, I hope the incompetence of the machine continues.
 

JM3

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As a writer whose profession is threatened by this Moloch, I hope the incompetence of the machine continues.
At my last firm we had a law clerk who thought it was a good idea to run the stuff he had written through AI tools to "improve it" before sending it to me.

It was always 10x as hard to turn it into real sensible English & compelling legal argument because the writing was so unnatural & forced.

I find ChatGPT really useful for a lot of day-to-day things, but I definitely haven't seen evidence that it can actually write well or be trusted, yet.

What kind of writing do you do?
 

Fishy1

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At my last firm we had a law clerk who thought it was a good idea to run the stuff he had written through AI tools to "improve it" before sending it to me.

It was always 10x as hard to turn it into real sensible English & compelling legal argument because the writing was so unnatural & forced.

I find ChatGPT really useful for a lot of day-to-day things, but I definitely haven't seen evidence that it can actually write well or be trusted, yet.

What kind of writing do you do?
Yes, my impression is at pumps out, uh, robotic prose. And when you ask it to imitate someone else, it doesn't do a great job. Still an interesting tool.

Copywriting, fiction writing, book and movie criticism. And none of it pays very well. ;)
 

Cassvt2023

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Kelly got a ton of shit in the second half for falling off so hard that I think people forgot how good he was before the break. He has some real weapons if he can get comfortable in higher leverage spots.
This is how I remember it. (He was on my fantasy team for a bit, we have Holds as a category). His stuff was looking really good and Cora started using him in close games, not blowouts or mop up. He was a super reliable 6th inning guy that earned managers trust. Then Martin and Slaten both went down and all of a sudden he was thrust into the 8th inning/set up role and he struggled.
 

Cassvt2023

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Yes, my impression is at pumps out, uh, robotic prose. And when you ask it to imitate someone else, it doesn't do a great job. Still an interesting tool.

Copywriting, fiction writing, book and movie criticism. And none of it pays very well. ;)
I can’t remember what thread it was on a couple weeks ago, but I think it was SoxProspects that is looking for people to write who have a deeper knowledge of the team and their farm system. They are unpaid positions. 95118
 

Cassvt2023

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That's one hell of an emoji.

But yeah, I'm not looking for anything more unpaid than what I already have. But thank you!
That would’ve been my guess, hence the emoji! That said, I enjoy your opinions and posts.
 

JM3

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Who would write extensively about the Red Sox Minor League system for free? Sounds dumb.
 

chrisfont9

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At my last firm we had a law clerk who thought it was a good idea to run the stuff he had written through AI tools to "improve it" before sending it to me.

It was always 10x as hard to turn it into real sensible English & compelling legal argument because the writing was so unnatural & forced.

I find ChatGPT really useful for a lot of day-to-day things, but I definitely haven't seen evidence that it can actually write well or be trusted, yet.

What kind of writing do you do?
Heh I recall reading a year ago that some attorney got slammed for submitting an AI-generated brief. At least your clerk saw it as a tool and not a substitute for, you know, assuring that a document you sign contains information that you should be signing your name to.
 

JM3

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Top 10 rotations per some Guardians fan named Steven with 60k followers on TikTok...

10. Padres
9. Twins
8. Astros
7. Red Sox
6. DBacks
5. Yankees
4. Phillies
3. Braves
2. Mariners
1. Dodgers

Not really sure if I have much point in posting this other than I saw the video & thought it was an interesting subject.
 

JM3

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Jim Bowden did an article on 12 breakout candidates he's looking forward to scouting in Spring Training which included C Note:

4. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF, Red Sox
Age: 24
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 5-9 Weight: 165

Rafaela is an above-average defender wherever he plays up the middle, but he’ll probably end up as Boston’s long-term answer in center field as long as he hits enough. He has a tremendous arm (94th percentile) and blazing speed (87th percentile). Last season he hit 15 homers, drove in 75 runs and stole 19 bases — and he hasn’t even scratched the surface of what he’ll develop into in time. He needs to be more disciplined at the plate, which should come with more reps. Early in the count, he needs to take more of the pitches he can’t handle; late in the count, he needs to either not chase as much out of the zone or foul more of those pitches off to get to more pitches per at-bat.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6092048/2025/01/28/mlb-breakout-players-2025/
 

Fishy1

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Nov 10, 2006
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Jim Bowden did an article on 12 breakout candidates he's looking forward to scouting in Spring Training which included C Note:



https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6092048/2025/01/28/mlb-breakout-players-2025/
This "it should come with more reps" still really strikes me as silly wishcasting. It's not impossible, but "should?" The guy had nearly 2000 minor plate appearances and his plate discipline has only gotten worse.

Some guys do get better, it's true. And others spend their whole career walking 3-4% of the time.

EDIT: Terrifying list, tbh (this is all players career minimum 500 PA since 1960). It really is improve or die for Rafaela, it seems like. So there's some incentive, I guess.

 

JM3

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I don't see anything particularly concerning on that list. He literally needs to improve his rate by 0.5% over the rest of his career to not even be on it.

& while I agree it certainly isn't a given that he will improve with that stuff, there also was never nearly as much of an incentive to learn when he was dominating lower level pitching.

The other thing is that most of the guys on that list other than Shawon Dunstan & maybe Damaso Garcia (before my time) didn't have the other carrying skills C Note has.

C Note was a 2.8 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR this past year, despite playing almost half the season, badly (-5 FRV), at SS. If he played exclusively in CF where he was a +6 FRV, I think that makes him approximately a 3 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR player.

So he does not need to improve his hitting much over his current level to be an average to above average starting CF. It's certainly not a given that he will improve, but he doesn't need to in order to be a significant contributor to an MLB team for the next 7 or 8 years until his current carrying skills start to fall off.
 

simplicio

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The reason to hold out hope for Rafaela is that he combined consistently being able to hit in the minors with real defensive talent. Most of the low walk profile guys that got real MLB time only did one of those things. The guys that couldn't field generally didn't get much leash to improve, and most defense first guys didn't have a real offensive upside to work toward.

I think the comp remains Tim Anderson, who did improve the walk rate a bit after his first couple years and put together a series of 4-5 WAR seasons in the back half of his 20s.
 

Fishy1

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The reason to hold out hope for Rafaela is that he combined consistently being able to hit in the minors with real defensive talent. Most of the low walk profile guys that got real MLB time only did one of those things. The guys that couldn't field generally didn't get much leash to improve, and most defense first guys didn't have a real offensive upside to work toward.

I think the comp remains Tim Anderson, who did improve the walk rate a bit after his first couple years and put together a series of 4-5 WAR seasons in the back half of his 20s.
Yes, his defensive floor is very important to this discussion, you're both correct about that. And I think his defense alone makes him a major league player right now, and a valuable one. What I'm quibbling with is that we can or should expect an offensive improvement. Here's rookie years since 1960 by worst BB%.

There are absolutely some winners and guys with decent careers who found their footing in terms of their BB%. There's also a lot of guys who didn't.
 

Merkle's Boner

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I like seeing Garry Maddox on there. Loved him in the 80s and would seem to be a good comp in the OF.
 

simplicio

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Yes, his defensive floor is very important to this discussion, you're both correct about that. And I think his defense alone makes him a major league player right now, and a valuable one. What I'm quibbling with is that we can or should expect an offensive improvement. Here's rookie years since 1960 by worst BB%.



There are absolutely some winners and guys with decent careers who found their footing in terms of their BB%. There's also a lot of guys who didn't.
I won't argue your questioning of "should improve," I think that's fair to call out. But like JM3 I think you may be overestimating how much improvement there needs to be to become a productive everyday player. Jonathan Schoop was another guy who became pretty valuable by raising his walk rate a little bit.