Active Hall of Famers

Kliq

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Who, currently playing, are Hall of Fame players? I'm not asking who do you think will end up in the HoF, but rather which players already should be in the HoF, if their careers ended today?

The Top 10 in active bWAR are:

1. Albert Pujols, 100
2. Mike Trout, 72
3. Zack Greinke, 72
4. Justin Verlander, 71
5. Miguel Cabera, 70
6. Robinson Cano, 70
7. Clayton Kershaw, 68
8. C.C.Sabathia, 63
9. Max Scherzer, 60
10. Joey Votto, 60

I think right now, Pujols, Trout, Verlander, Cabrera and Kershaw are all no-doubt HoF players. Everyone else I think is up for debate. I think it is interesting that there is one player who has accumulated 28 higher WAR than everyone else, and then a glut of players in between 60-70 WAR.

WAR likes Grienke the most out of the active pitchers, but other measures don't find him as convincing. He has a carer black ink total of 14 (average HOF is 40) and a career gray ink total of 155 (average HOF 185). JAWS does have him ranked 36th for SPs. I don't think people think of him as being in the class of Verlander and Kershaw, but his career numbers are close, and he is over the 200 win barrier, whatever that means for modern pitchers. His career adjusted ERA+ is 72nd all time. He won one Cy Young and finished second in another year.

Cano is a guy who I never thought of as being a future HoF, but he has a case. He is 10th all-time in WAR at 2B, and finished top six in MVP voting five times, although never higher than third. He has never led the league in any major hitting category, but his gray ink at 138 is just slightly below the HOF average (144). I don't think he gets in unless he has a few last good seasons that push him towards some key milestones. He has 2,570 career hits and turns 37 in October.

Sabathia has very good counting stats and will probably get in. To me, he was a slightly-better than average pitcher for most his run with the Yankees, and racked up a lot of stats by being very durable and reliable. From 2007 to 2011 he was pretty awesome, never throwing less than 230 innings per season and never had an ERA+ under 136. He won the Cy Young in 2007 and had a famously monster rental run with Milwaukee in 2008, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA (255 ERA+) over 17 starts and pitching them into the playoffs. He has been medicore for a number of years now, you kind of forget how good his peak was. I'd vote for him.

Scherzer doesn't have quite the counting stats that his contemporaries have due to being a late bloomer, but his 3 Cy Youngs and overall dominance over the last seven seasons make him a HOF player. Black ink (50) and Gray Ink (170) both like him.
 

E5 Yaz

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Yelling At Clouds

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Cano is a guy who I never thought of as being a future HoF, but he has a case. He is 10th all-time in WAR at 2B, and finished top six in MVP voting five times, although never higher than third. He has never led the league in any major hitting category, but his gray ink at 138 is just slightly below the HOF average (144). I don't think he gets in unless he has a few last good seasons that push him towards some key milestones. He has 2,570 career hits and turns 37 in October.
Cano was headed for virtual lock status until his PED suspension. But I will note that he had an .880 OPS in the second half last year, so he might be slightly less toast than most think.


Sabathia has very good counting stats and will probably get in. To me, he was a slightly-better than average pitcher for most his run with the Yankees, and racked up a lot of stats by being very durable and reliable. From 2007 to 2011 he was pretty awesome, never throwing less than 230 innings per season and never had an ERA+ under 136. He won the Cy Young in 2007 and had a famously monster rental run with Milwaukee in 2008, going 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA (255 ERA+) over 17 starts and pitching them into the playoffs. He has been medicore for a number of years now, you kind of forget how good his peak was. I'd vote for him.
Kind of crazy to think about Sabathia. Through age 30, he had 176 wins, ~50 bWAR, a Cy, a World Series title, and, despite his physique, was demonstrating himself to be durable. You'd never call a pitcher a lock at age 30, but he seemed as close to a lock as anyone would be comfortable declaring. Then from 32 - 34, he was, by all appearances, totally done. Then, as you point out, he rebuilt himself into someone good enough to hang on to the point where he could get his numbers up into Hall territory. I'm always amazed by it.
 

scottyno

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Every retired player other than Clemens with at least 3 cy youngs is in, I think that makes Scherzer a lock even if he retired today, his peak has been just too good.
 

sean1562

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I cant imagine Grienke doesnt get in. that one year he won the cy young was an amazing year. he has been brilliant this year and doesnt really show any signs of slowing down. he is such a weird guy, the story of him giving alex gordon hitting advice is hilarious
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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I’ll throw an off the wall one out, just for discussion-Jon Lester. He’s not there by WAR and the counting stats are light (although 190 wins probably gets him in the discussion). But some of the other measures (Grey Ink, H of F standards, etc.) put him in the top 110 or so pitchers of all times, and H of F Monitor has him at 78. Three Top-5 Cy young finishes, a no-hitter, and very good in the playoffs, especially the WS - a 1.77 ERA and .925 WHIP in 35 innings. If he suddenly retired tomorrow, I’m not saying he’d get in (and I don’t think he would) but I could see him getting serious support
 

Cesar Crespo

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It sure points out the Hall of Fame vs the Hall of Stats debate.

When we get to the point where the HoF is only for those who reach statistical measures preferred by those who base everything off those stats, then we really won't have a Hall of Fame anymore
Verlander exceeds the other measures, in some cases by a lot.

Black ink 66, avg HOF 44
Gray Ink 222, avg HOF 185
HOF Monitor 194, avg HOF 100
HOF Standards 51, avg HOF 50.

His JAWS is 60.2, avg HOF is 61.5. He's basically there too.

He's a lock.

I think the first 5, Kershaw and Scherzer are in.
 

ehaz

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I think Yadier Molina will eventually get in because 9 gold gloves, rings, and reputation.
 

sean1562

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yea and im not sure WAR does justice to contributions from catchers. I read this the other day, it is really crazy how good molina has been in st louis. honestly after reading that article i cant see how he doesnt get into the HoF

edit: does anyone know how to see SB against for all HoF catchers? 513 seems like a really low number. ivan rodriguez had 786. when you look at passed balls ivan has 127 to yadi's 86 and wild pitches 830 to 476

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/yadier-molinas-career-in-four-graphs/
 
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Kliq

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Posey is another guy who doesn't rank highly when it comes to WAR, but would seem like a logical HoF candidate. MVP, 6x All-Star, 3x World Series, 4x Silver Slugger. JAWS has him 14th among catchers, below the HoF average, but that isn't considering the rings that Posey has won.
 

Marciano490

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Are there instances of guys playing themselves out of the Hall? Like adding a couple mediocre years to the end of their careers that ups their ERAs or lowers their BAs to an unpalatable level? I’m thinking, for example, of a couple more Lester years pitching to a 4.5ish ERA while not adding enough wins to offset the bloat.
 

Spacemans Bong

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Are there instances of guys playing themselves out of the Hall? Like adding a couple mediocre years to the end of their careers that ups their ERAs or lowers their BAs to an unpalatable level? I’m thinking, for example, of a couple more Lester years pitching to a 4.5ish ERA while not adding enough wins to offset the bloat.
Not very many, if any, I think for two reasons:

1) It's usually worth it to hang around for those counting stat milestones, 250/300 wins, 3000 hits, 500 home runs, whatever. Early Wynn was pretty well cooked, but he hung around a while to get his 300th win (I think he lost six or seven starts in a row - it was like the black and white TV equivalent of Wakefield trying to get the Red Sox win record). It messed up his rate stats a bit but he still got into the Hall.

2) I think the Veteran's Committee/Hall of Fame politics sweeps up the rest of those guys. Until he got in as a fuck you to the stats nerds, Jim Rice was a good answer to this question. In 1986, Rice hit 324/384/490 with 20 homers and 110 RBIs (and cut his GIDPs nearly in half) at the age of 33. He looked like he had a great chance of hitting .300 for his career with 400 home runs. He was at .303 career with 351 home runs and had just posted his highest BA since 1979.

Instead, Rice fell off a cliff, posting just 263/330/395 with just 31 home runs in 1100 ABs over the next three years. Ended up below .300 and didn't even really get close to 400 homers (he finished with 382). That got mentioned a LOT in the Jim Ed: HOF? debate before he got inducted.

So the kind of short, sharp decline that really screws you out of the Hall doesn't really exist. I think you do have some longer-term declines, guys who seemed like sure fire Hall of Famers at the age of 30 who lost a lot of value due to injuries, and ended up on the borderline. Will Clark and Joe Mauer fit that category. I suspect Mauer gets in, because he was a great catcher, and maybe Clark eventually gets in because he was actually still pretty valuable when he retired early due to his son being diagnosed with autism and a terminally bad back. But even Giants fans aren't marching on the Hall because Will Clark isn't in.

The best person I can think of that fits the criteria is Keith Hernandez. After 1987 (really 1986, but he added some bombs to compensate for a 20 point loss in BA in 87), Hernandez was basically done as a hitter despite only being 33 years old. His career BA dropped below .300, ending up at .298. I'm not sure he'd be in if he was a .300 hitter, but it would have helped.

Felix Hernandez might one of the best examples for a pitcher...he's been absolutely done for three years now and not hit any milestones to compensate for it. He's added almost a quarter run to his ERA and dropped seven points in ERA+.

Posey is another guy who doesn't rank highly when it comes to WAR, but would seem like a logical HoF candidate. MVP, 6x All-Star, 3x World Series, 4x Silver Slugger. JAWS has him 14th among catchers, below the HoF average, but that isn't considering the rings that Posey has won.
Also, Posey is really the only remotely logical candidate as a player from the 2010-2014 Giants (Bochy is a lock as a manager, even with a career losing record). There are basically no World Series champions, much less multiple World Series champions, teams with zero Hall of Famers on them. So there will be a Buster For The Hall bandwagon that won't exist if he had his career for, say, Cincinnati.

That said, Posey might answer Marciano's question in a few years, because he's just fallen off a cliff as a hitter. To the point the "Give Buster the 1B glove and trade Belt, who we hate" crowd has shut up in San Francisco, because Buster isn't valuable enough as a 1st baseman.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Are there instances of guys playing themselves out of the Hall? Like adding a couple mediocre years to the end of their careers that ups their ERAs or lowers their BAs to an unpalatable level? I’m thinking, for example, of a couple more Lester years pitching to a 4.5ish ERA while not adding enough wins to offset the bloat.
Andruw Jones? I know the book isn’t closed on his candidacy, but I think a lot of voters think of his itinerant post-Braves career as the dealbreaker.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Are there instances of guys playing themselves out of the Hall? Like adding a couple mediocre years to the end of their careers that ups their ERAs or lowers their BAs to an unpalatable level? I’m thinking, for example, of a couple more Lester years pitching to a 4.5ish ERA while not adding enough wins to offset the bloat.
Dale Murphy.
 

InstaFace

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It sure points out the Hall of Fame vs the Hall of Stats debate.

When we get to the point where the HoF is only for those who reach statistical measures preferred by those who base everything off those stats, then we really won't have a Hall of Fame anymore
Thankfully, the two are correlated well enough that we don't have to listen to old cranks tell us the right way to enjoy baseball and its HOF debates.

The cases where oldschool and newschool disagree have, generally, been settled by the BBWAA voting them down, and then the Veterans Committee putting them in anyway.

2019: Lee Smith (max 50.6%, in on 1st ballot with VC, unanimously)
2019: Harold Baines (max 6.1%, in on 2nd ballot with VC, at the margins with exactly 75%)
2018: Jack Morris (max 67.7%, in on 1st ballot with VC)
2018: Alan Trammell (max 40.9% in 15th year, in on 1st ballot with VC)
2011: Ron Santo (max 43.1% in 15th year / 1998, in via VC on 5th (?) ballot voted-on as he was dying; not inducted till 2012 and safely dead)
2001: Bill Mazeroski (max 42.3% in 15th year / 1992, in via VC though unclear how many ballots)
1999: Orlando Cepeda (max 73.5% in 15th year / 1994, in via VC though unclear how many ballots)

It wasn't really an issue before last year, since Mazeroski was superlative in at least two ways - his legendary glove and arguably the most famous HR of all time. Ron Santo was above his JAWS positional standard while on the BBWAA ballot and was a worthy candidate who had nearly made it in; similarly, for all the hate Jack Morris's candidacy got from the stats crew, he was clearly close to being a HOF-worthy player and it's not an embarrassment that he's in, nor Trammell and likewise Cepeda. Where the HOF-following public drew the line was this year, with Smith being a very subpar candidate and Baines being a bottom-5, Frankie Frisch And Friends-level travesty.

Part of the issue was also that for player inductees prior to 2018, there was generally a lengthy gap between their BBWAA candidacy and their VC election - 9 years for Mazeroski, 13 years for Santo; only 5 for Cepeda but he was even-less controversial. But then these last 2 ballots you had gaps of 2 years (Smith), 2 years (Trammell), and 4 years (Morris), where it just felt like the will of the public (which definitely influences the BBWAA vote) was being overruled by insiders. That's not "Hall of Fame vs Hall of Stats", that's "small group of insiders in an opaque process, vs the baseball universe in a transparent and thoroughly-debated process". If the Veterans Committee sticks to 19th century candidates, as well as executives, managers and umpires, it's going to help the Hall rather than create controversy. But if they continue overruling recent BBWAA votes, seemingly for reasons of favoritism rather than "Fame", that's going to diminish the Hall far more than any hand-wringing about the influence of stats.
 

BoSox Rule

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SP
Kershaw
Greinke
Verlander
Scherzer
Sabathia

1B
Pujols
Cabrera

CF
Trout

Molina probably gets in on reputation, I think Posey and Votto get in with a few more strong years. Cano is worthy but can’t see a suspended player getting voted in.
 

InstaFace

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As to the original question, Pujols, Trout, Verlander, Cabrera and Kershaw are in today, even if they fall down an open manhole and never throw or hit again. Greinke would get my vote but I'm not sure he'd win 75% on a ballot today; he'll be a very controversial candidate because his career is a "very good for very long with very good health" category, but despite winning a CYA and deserving a 2nd, I'm not sure he was famous enough or dominant enough to really swing the votes. Kliq asks for our own vote, and he'd get mine, but barely.

Cano I predict will fall short even if the voters start to ignore PEDs; he'll get a lot of crap from writers for shying away from the spotlight in going from MFY to SEA (ignoring how stark the contract-value differences were), and I don't think his career is superlative in either fielding or hitting to the extent that I'd want to see.

Scherzer has nearly the platonic ideal of a 7-year peak (3 CYAs, 3 more top-5 finishes) and might grudgingly get my vote today (his candidacy is in the Pedro brilliance-over-longevity category, and I'm always a sucker for those), but I expect that if his mid-30s go gracefully he'll end up a slam dunk first-balloter regardless.

Sabathia is a Hall of Very Good for me, not every cy young winner deserves induction (and that award should've been Beckett's, goddammit! okay, should've been Lackey's, but still).

Votto, at age 35, probably doesn't have many extraordinary seasons left in him, I'd say he's a No vote from me right now but a few great seasons might tip the scales.

Yadier Molina is a deeper question than I have time to thoroughly consider right now, but among the other nominees after the OP's list of 10 here, he's the most intriguing to me. I guess I'll acknowledge Bonger's point about Posey, who is basically Campanella Lite, and figure he eventually gets in, but if I'm voting for a catcher I think Yadier more represents what I think of as a legendary catching career. I don't think I'd vote for Lester or King Felix today.
 

lexrageorge

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While I personally would not vote for Sabathia, he will get support by voters for his longevity (his 2016-18 seasons helped his candidacy tremendously) and being in New York.

If we look solely at bWAR, Lester's 9 years in Boston were equal to or better than Sabathia's 8 seasons in Cleveland or his 11 in New York. Lester's candidacy is hurt in comparison because he was 24 before he became a full time starter, and he was basically league average for 2 of his last 3 seasons with the Cubs. If he's able to repeat his 2018 performance over the next one or two seasons, and somehow get another ring in the process, his chances of induction become a lot more real. But that's a lot to ask.
 

mauf

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God damn, between Jones and Murphy I feel like an idiot, because they really are perfect examples of guys who played themselves out of the Hall. Far better than my examples. I think Jones might get in anyway, but I think Murphy is going to be on the outside looking in unless he gets a Baines-esque Veteran's Committee of buddies.
I’m with @The Needler — not seeing a point where Dale Murphy could’ve walked away and had a solid case. Ditto for Andruw Jones; the 239/339/489 career line he had at the end of 2008 wouldn’t have been enough without any longevity-related accomplishments, even with all those Gold Gloves.

Tim Raines was the answer to this question before he finally got in. Raines might have been a first-ballot choice if he retired five years earlier. But even that had more to do with the offensive explosion from 1994-2004 that made his numbers look less impressive than with dilution of those numbers from his last five seasons.
 
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lexrageorge

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But at what point could he have retired and made the HOF? I don't think there was such a point. So isn't that a little different from playing yourself out? That seems like more the fairly common case of being on a HOF pace and not being able to close the deal.
It's an interesting point. Had he retired after 1987 with a career OPS of 0.862 and 315 home runs, he at least would have been in the conversation most years of his eligibility. Instead, he never garnered more than 21% of the vote, and most years was in the low-to-mid teens.
 

Kliq

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I think if tragedy strikes, a player could get without as hefty as a resume. If god forbid, Jose Altuve were to get paralyzed in an accident, I think you could see a lot of HoF support for a player like him, who was on a HoF trajectory and already accomplished a lot, but needs a few more elite seasons to seal the deal. If he were to instead just fall off a cliff and be a below average player, he wouldn't get in though.

A big part of the HoF is that you were either good enough to get in, or you were not. If you were never an MVP or close to it, you're HoF case probably lies on your longevity and consistency, so you wouldn't be able to play your way out of the hall at the end of your career. If you were a top, top player, than people will forgive the end of your career and focus on your peak. If Felix Hernandez had won 3 Cy Young awards instead of one, I think you would hear a lot more HoF buzz even though his career fizzled out early.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Is Dustin Pedroia eligible for this conversation? Or is he de facto inactive at this point? We had a good discussion about his candidacy back in April before it was apparent that he was done. He's certainly got the highlights of a Hall of Fame career with the MVP, ROY, four gold gloves, several post season appearances, including two World Championships, but he doesn't have the counting stats that would make him automatic. He's ahead of some Hall of Fame second basemen in bWAR (Doerr, Lazzeri, Fox, Mazeroski, Schoendienst) but behind some others who have not gotten in (Whitaker, Grich, Kent, Willie Randolph).

Does he get the Kirby Puckett treatment (almost exactly the same bWAR) or the Don Mattingly treatment?
 

Leather

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It's an interesting point. Had he retired after 1987 with a career OPS of 0.862 and 315 home runs, he at least would have been in the conversation most years of his eligibility. Instead, he never garnered more than 21% of the vote, and most years was in the low-to-mid teens.
Maybe. Or maybe he would have been the Johan Santana of hitters and just dropped off the ballot immediately.
 

Spacemans Bong

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I’m with @The Needler — not seeing a point where Dale Murphy could’ve walked away and had a solid case. Ditto for Andruw Jones; the 239/339/489 career line he had at the end of 2008 wouldn’t have been enough without any longevity-related accomplishments, even with all those Gold Gloves.

Tim Raines was the answer to this question before he finally got in. Raines might have been a first-ballot choice if he retired five years earlier.
Raines is a decent call, but I think more due to the politics of the Hall and the idiocy of the BBWAA than anything else. He retired the year before Rickey IIRC, and so he ended up being compared to the greatest lead off hitter ever, rather than to everybody else as a lead off hitter.

What makes Jones and Murphy better cases than my suggestions is I think they were more like Rice in that they were really close to having the resume to get in. They needed 2-3 decent years, not superstar numbers, just a nice gentle decline and they were in. Mauer probably fits that too, if you just have him stay behind the plate for the rest of his career. Clark or even Hernandez needed to be productive longer than that.

It’s an interesting question because I can’t really think of a candidate in any sport. There’s guys who had sudden declines who had to wait to get in, like Rice or Bob McAdoo in basketball, but they got in eventually. I think voters just throw out the decline phase eventually if they think (or talk themselves into thinking) a guy was good enough in the first place.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think if tragedy strikes, a player could get without as hefty as a resume. If god forbid, Jose Altuve were to get paralyzed in an accident, I think you could see a lot of HoF support for a player like him, who was on a HoF trajectory and already accomplished a lot, but needs a few more elite seasons to seal the deal. If he were to instead just fall off a cliff and be a below average player, he wouldn't get in though.
Kirby Puckett was forced to retire due to going blind in one eye but he was 36 when that happened, a bit older than I remember him being. His numbers on their own probably aren't enough to get him in the hall. Also, had he played another 3-4 years, all the DV stuff would have come to light before his vote. I don't know if that would have had that big an impact in the early 2000s though.
 

brs3

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CC's peak was 2006-2012. Half of his dominance was during that time. The time before and after is less impressive and more filler than anything else. Just because he has more than 3,000 Ks does not qualify him for the HOF IMO. Just one other stat, CGs, he had 38 in his career, 29 came during that peak. His postseason does not tip the scale in favor of the elite status of HoF. He had a great career. I don't think he had a Hall of Fame career. I'm for a bigger hall, but I don't see a clear path here. Just look at Verlander, who shows no signs of slowing down, just wrapped up the best 4 year stretch of his career. If he maintains this for 3 more years, he has a chance to be the last 300 game winner for a while.
 

Ale Xander

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I'd go

Trout (1st ballot)
Cabrera (1st ballot)
Pujols (1st ballot)
Kershaw
Verlander
Scherzer
------
Close but no
Greinke
Cano (can't put him in there before Manny)
Sabathia
--------
Joke?
Votto
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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including two World Championships
Technically, he was on three World Championships. It depends how much credit you give him for last year.

Edit: what I find interesting is that baseball-reference does not give Pedroia credit for being on a World Series championship team last year and they don't give Frank Thomas any credit for being on the White Sox WC team in 2005. I'm not sure exactly how I feel about that. They were on the roster at some point in the year and contributed to the championship winning season. How come they don't get credit for it?

I remember Abe Alvarez got a World Series ring in 2004.
 

The Needler

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Is Dustin Pedroia eligible for this conversation? Or is he de facto inactive at this point? We had a good discussion about his candidacy back in April before it was apparent that he was done. He's certainly got the highlights of a Hall of Fame career with the MVP, ROY, four gold gloves, several post season appearances, including two World Championships, but he doesn't have the counting stats that would make him automatic. He's ahead of some Hall of Fame second basemen in bWAR (Doerr, Lazzeri, Fox, Mazeroski, Schoendienst) but behind some others who have not gotten in (Whitaker, Grich, Kent, Willie Randolph).

Does he get the Kirby Puckett treatment (almost exactly the same bWAR) or the Don Mattingly treatment?
If Nomar—the all time OPS leader for SS—didn’t sniff the Hall, I don’t see how Pedroia is in the conversation.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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We're taking the easy route so far! I'll predict this group of eleven:

Mookie Betts
Christian Yelich
Bryce Harper
Francisco Lindor
Jose Altuve
Alex Bregman
Matt Chapman
Nolan Arenado
Gleyber Torres
Ronald Acuna, Jr.
Juan Soto

Ok. I know that a bunch of you right now are thinking "It's too soon to tell about those guys." I know. But first, history tells us that there are more than 8-10 future HoFers active in a given year, and second, lighten up maybe?
 

Cesar Crespo

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We're taking the easy route so far! I'll predict this group of eleven:

Mookie Betts
Christian Yelich
Bryce Harper
Francisco Lindor
Jose Altuve
Alex Bregman
Matt Chapman
Nolan Arenado
Gleyber Torres
Ronald Acuna, Jr.
Juan Soto

Ok. I know that a bunch of you right now are thinking "It's too soon to tell about those guys." I know. But first, history tells us that there are more than 8-10 future HoFers active in a given year, and second, lighten up maybe?
Do you hate pitchers? Not listing any pitchers is taking the easy route.

Edit: If someone asked me to predict 10 future HOF and I was being graded, I'd take 10 hitters too though.
 

The Needler

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Technically, he was on three World Championships. It depends how much credit you give him for last year.

Edit: what I find interesting is that baseball-reference does not give Pedroia credit for being on a World Series championship team last year and they don't give Frank Thomas any credit for being on the White Sox WC team in 2005. I'm not sure exactly how I feel about that. They were on the roster at some point in the year and contributed to the championship winning season. How come they don't get credit for it?

I remember Abe Alvarez got a World Series ring in 2004.
B-ref only gives rings to those on the WS roster.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Do you hate pitchers? Not listing any pitchers is taking the easy route.

Edit: If someone asked me to predict 10 future HOF and I was being graded, I'd take 10 hitters too though.
Well, if I'm being honest, I started to compile a list of pitchers and then got kind of overwhelmingly depressed when I reached a certain potential candidate whose lucrative extension is about to kick in...
 

InstaFace

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Technically, he was on three World Championships. It depends how much credit you give him for last year.

Edit: what I find interesting is that baseball-reference does not give Pedroia credit for being on a World Series championship team last year and they don't give Frank Thomas any credit for being on the White Sox WC team in 2005. I'm not sure exactly how I feel about that. They were on the roster at some point in the year and contributed to the championship winning season. How come they don't get credit for it?

I remember Abe Alvarez got a World Series ring in 2004.
I think B-Ref only credits you the little ring icon if you were on a postseason roster, regardless of whether the team chose to recognize you or not.

See Ramiro Mendoza, whose last appearance for the crimson hose was the humiliation of the 19-8 defeat. He wasn't on the WS roster, just the ALCS, but gets the icon.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Well, if I'm being honest, I started to compile a list of pitchers and then got kind of overwhelmingly depressed when I reached a certain potential candidate whose lucrative extension is about to kick in...
Was he the first one on your list? Looking at the active WAR list and there really aren't many pitchers on HOF trajectories.

How much WAR does the average HOF pitcher have after their age 30 season? Is there anyway to look that up?
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,405
Was he the first one on your list? Looking at the active WAR list and there really aren't many pitchers on HOF trajectories.

How much WAR does the average HOF pitcher have after their age 30 season? Is there anyway to look that up?
I was mostly going off the top of my head, but yes, his was the first name I thought of. Just from looking around at people as I think of them, though, it seems a lot of what I think of as the "top" pitchers of today either got a late-ish start or were less-than-stellar for a few years before having everything fall into place or both. Or have dealt with various injuries. Sale has been a somewhat rare combination of success on the field, relative youth, and a mostly unblemished injury history... until 2019.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I was mostly going off the top of my head, but yes, his was the first name I thought of. Just from looking around at people as I think of them, though, it seems a lot of what I think of as the "top" pitchers of today either got a late-ish start or were less-than-stellar for a few years before having everything fall into place or both. Or have dealt with various injuries. Sale has been a somewhat rare combination of success on the field, relative youth, and a mostly unblemished injury history... until 2019.
The youngest pitcher on the top 100 active list for bWAR is actually Geritt Cole, and he's 29 now. He's 86th on the list at 24.0. At age 26, EdRod has 2.4 more WAR than Cole did. Did the game really change that much or is this just a cycle?

The pitchers in the top 20 in active WAR and their WAR total at the end of their age 30 season. Cole would still have 2 seasons left, so if he's healthy, he'll be ahead of Lester and Scherzer anyway.

Verlander 40.7
Greinke 39.9
Sabathia 49.8
Scherzer 30.6
Felix 51.4
Lester 32.2
Kershaw 61.9!
Hamels 39.7
Sale 45.4

Age 31 to now
Verlander 30.7 (6 years)
Greinke 26.8 (5 years)
Sabathia 12.7 (8 years)
Scherzer 28.0 (4 years)
Felix -1.1! (3 years)
Lester 13.7 (5 years)
Kershaw 3.5 (1 year)
Hamels 18.9 (5 years)
Sale N/A

This is bWAR and only pitching.

WAR value outside of pitching for their careers (pretty sure it's almost entirely hitting. Does WAR for a pitcher include fielding and base running? If so, it's entirely hitting.)

Verlander -0.5
Greinke 5.0
Sabathia 0.5
Scherzer 1.6
Felix -0.1
Lester -0.4
Kershaw 2.6
Hamels 0.9
Sale -0.1

Interesting that Hamels is 11th on the list. He is 11 days older than Lester. Their entire careers overlap with each other. Hamels has been worth 14.3 more WAR. I get this is a Redsox board, but I don't think anyone would vote for Cole Hamels so how would one justify a vote for Lester? Also, it looks like Max Scherzer may be the only pitcher who provides more value after 30, though Greinke and Verlander definitely have a shot. I think it's fair to assume Kershaw is not going to. If he did, he'd finish at least 11th on the All time WAR list, possibly 9th. Either way, he would be 4th among pitchers. Only behind Walter Johnson, Cy Young and Roger Clemens, in that order.
 

Gdiguy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
6,231
San Diego, CA
SP
Kershaw
Greinke
Verlander
Scherzer
Sabathia

1B
Pujols
Cabrera

CF
Trout

Molina probably gets in on reputation, I think Posey and Votto get in with a few more strong years. Cano is worthy but can’t see a suspended player getting voted in.
This is a good list format, because I think it makes a useful point - I don't see it likely that the HoF for many years will basically only vote in 3 positions, so there's definitely going to be some others that at least get close just from that alone.

Going off of 'active but not so young that predicting is silly', in that vein - I think Pedroia is pretty likely (as the comparison with PED suspension-having Cano helps him); going down the list I wonder if someone like McCutchen or Zobrist might get some support.

Stanton is probably the most obvious one not discussed much so far (he's pretty high on the WAR list considering how young he still is; Betts as well)
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,229
We're taking the easy route so far! I'll predict this group of eleven:

Mookie Betts
Christian Yelich
Bryce Harper
Francisco Lindor
Jose Altuve
Alex Bregman
Matt Chapman
Nolan Arenado
Gleyber Torres
Ronald Acuna, Jr.
Juan Soto
You left Bogaerts and Devers off the list!
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

has fancy plans, and pants to match
Dope
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2001
24,537
B-ref only gives rings to those on the WS roster.
I think B-Ref only credits you the little ring icon if you were on a postseason roster, regardless of whether the team chose to recognize you or not.

See Ramiro Mendoza, whose last appearance for the crimson hose was the humiliation of the 19-8 defeat. He wasn't on the WS roster, just the ALCS, but gets the icon.
That makes sense. And I see b-ref's point, but do you consider those guys (Pedroia and Thomas) and their ilk World Champions? I know that I do.

EDIT: Maybe I'm the only one. I just double-checked and there's no mention of it on Thomas' HoF plaque.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

critical thinker
SoSH Member
Dec 19, 2009
9,386
If Nomar—the all time OPS leader for SS—didn’t sniff the Hall, I don’t see how Pedroia is in the conversation.
You may be right, but Pedroia was not a shortstop during the vast majority of his ML career; he played 2B, one of the least-represented positions in the Hall. He may not make it in but I think it's foolish to eliminate him because a player from another position didn't get more than a cursory look.
 

The Needler

New Member
Dec 7, 2016
1,803
You may be right, but Pedroia was not a shortstop during the vast majority of his ML career; he played 2B, one of the least-represented positions in the Hall. He may not make it in but I think it's foolish to eliminate him because a player from another position didn't get more than a cursory look.
Are you advocating affirmative action for second basemen? 2B is an easier position to play than SS; any good shortstop would be a good second baseman. There aren't many DHs in the HOF, either. Should we begin lowering the standards for them, too?

I am not eliminating Pedroia from consideration because Nomar was never seriously considered. I'm saying Pedroia will not/should not be considered for the same reason Nomar was (rightly) not considered -- he didn't play the game at the elite level for long enough.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
21,755
Pittsburgh, PA
That makes sense. And I see b-ref's point, but do you consider those guys (Pedroia and Thomas) and their ilk World Champions?
I guess I do, yeah.

There are postseason heroes. There are postseason contributors. There are postseason players who underperformed their seasons once in the playoffs, but still had good seasons. There are people who contributed during the season, but for whatever reason didn't make the postseason. There are players who would have contributed, had they not been injured. There are people who came up for a cup of coffee and were pretty interchangeable but still did things during the team's season, or who (like X) were september call-ups who played their way into getting K-Rod'd onto the postseason roster.

None of them are "Equal" in their contributions, in quality or quantity, or their reputation on the team and with the fanbase. But it's still a team. I don't think there's some flat categorization you can put them into to say "THESE people are World Champions, and THOSE people are just bodies whose dead weight we chucked aside along the way". Sticking to the 25-man WS roster undersells what sort of organizational depth is required to get you through a season and get the team to that point.

We know that in baseball, it's the (final-series) postseason roster that votes on who else gets a playoff share, or half-share. If they voted Pedroia and Thomas a share, who's to say otherwise? If the team decided they got a ring, who's to say otherwise? I don't expect B-Ref to do all the homework on that, but neither am I going to sit here and say that Thomas had nothing to do with the White Sox' victory and deserves no recognition for it.
 
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Mueller's Twin Grannies

critical thinker
SoSH Member
Dec 19, 2009
9,386
Are you advocating affirmative action for second basemen? 2B is an easier position to play than SS; any good shortstop would be a good second baseman. There aren't many DHs in the HOF, either. Should we begin lowering the standards for them, too?

I am not eliminating Pedroia from consideration because Nomar was never seriously considered. I'm saying Pedroia will not/should not be considered for the same reason Nomar was (rightly) not considered -- he didn't play the game at the elite level for long enough.
Be that as it may, that's not a standard used by HoF voters, at least not one that I've ever heard (your first statement after the question, not your second). They will rate Pedroia's candidacy against other HoF members from his same position and how he ranked for his era. He may not get in, as you said, but what Nomar Garciaparra did in his career has nothing to do with the candidacy of Dustin Pedroia no matter how you look at it.
 

The Needler

New Member
Dec 7, 2016
1,803
That makes sense. And I see b-ref's point, but do you consider those guys (Pedroia and Thomas) and their ilk World Champions? I know that I do.

EDIT: Maybe I'm the only one. I just double-checked and there's no mention of it on Thomas' HoF plaque.
Honestly, have never given it much thought, but now that I do...not really, I guess. If you weren't on the WS roster, you weren't really part of the team that won the World Series. I guess I could get behind it if you were at least on the roster for one of the playoff series, since it is at least the same tournament.