In two games against SF the LAR have 543 yards on offense and 258 of those are by Kupp. If the 49ers can contain Kupp at all I’m not sure how the Rams score. So that might be one way.
AFC and NFC Championship game thread
- Thread starter Ferm Sheller
- Start date
Probably not a predictor or anything, but the 49ers have won 6 straight against the Rams, all Shannahan vs. McVay. Recent history is in SF's favor.
I do think the Rams win. They look like the best team remaining, IMO. Stafford has been playing well, the defense looks like a unit that can pressure with 4 and cover. They killed the Cardinals and should've killed the Bucs. The 2nd half was a clusterfuck but they're unlikely to lose 4 fumbles again. Didn't run the ball well against Tampa but very few teams do.
It's a game of matchups, and for some reason the 49ers seem to be a very difficult matchup for the Rams. Since it's no longer a small sample but dates back several years, I don't really see a reason why that should change this week. That said, it still feels to me like the Rams are a better team; but maybe it's just a specifically bad matchup for them.
Rankings of the NFL's 4 conference championship teams the last 5 years.
2017
Jax: #5 points off, #6 yds off, #2 points def, #2 yds def
NE: #2 points off, #1 yds off, #5 points def, #29 yds def
Phi: #3 points off, #7 yds off, #4 points def, #4 yds def
Min: #10 points off, #11 yds off, #1 points def, #1 yds def
2018
KC: #1 points off, #1 yds off, #24 points def, #31 yds def
NE: #4 points off, #5 yds off, #7 points def, #21 yds def
LAR: #2 points off, #2 yds off, #20 points def, #19 yds def
NO: #3 points off, #8 yds off, #14 points def, #14 yds def
2019
KC: #5 points off, #6 yds off, #7 points def, #17 yds def
Ten: #10 points off, #12 yds off, #12 points def, #21 yds def
SF: #2 points off, #4 yds off, #8 points def, #2 yds def
GB: #15 points off, #18 yds off, #9 points def, #18 yds def
2020
KC: #6 points off, #1 yds off, #10 points def, #16 yds def
Buf: #2 points off, #2 yds off, #16 points def, #14 yds def
TB: #3 points off, #7 yds off, #8 points def, #6 yds def
GB: #1 points off, #5 yds off, #13 points def, #9 yds def
2021
KC: #4 points off, #3 yds off, #8 points def, #27 yds def
Cin: #7 points off, #13 yds off, #17 points def, #18 yds def
SF: #13 points off, #7 yds off, #9 points def, #3 yds def
LAR: #7 points off, #9 yds off, #15 points def, #17 yds def
Average ranking
Points off: 5.3
Yards off: 6.4
Points def: 10.5
Yards def: 14.5
Number of top 5 ranked units
Points off: 12/20 (60.0%)
Yards off: 8/20 (40.0%)
Points def: 4/20 (20.0%)
Yards def: 5/20 (25.0%)
Super Bowl champ average ranking
Points off: 3.8
Yards off: 6.3
Points def: 6.5
Yards def: 12.0
Super Bowl champ top ranking (of the four teams in the CC games)
Points off: 0
Yards off: 0
Points def: 3
Yards def: 1
That last data set I need to explain a little more. I looked at the four teams in the conference championship games (we can't count this year because we're looking at SB winners, and obviously we aren't there yet with 2021). Of the four points offense rankings for the four finalists, which one had the highest ranking in that category, and then how many times did the team with the highest ranking (of the four teams) actually win the Super Bowl? So it's interesting that none of the teams with the highest points or yardage offense rankings (of the four remaining teams each year) won the Super Bowl, but three out of four times the team with the highest ranked point defense, and one team with the highest ranked yardage defense won the Super Bowl.
Seen another way, here's the rankings - AMONG THE FOUR REMAINING TEAMS - of the SB winners:
2017 (Phi): 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd = avg off rank: 5.0; avg def rank: 4.0
2018 (NE): 3rd, 3rd, 1st, 3rd = avg off rank: 4.5; avg def rank: 14.0
2019 (KC): 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd = avg off rank: 5.5; avg def rank: 12.0
2020 (TB): 3rd, 4th, 1st, 1st = avg off rank: 5.0; avg def rank: 7.0
So from this small sample, is it more important to have a great offense or a great defense in the modern NFL?
2017
Jax: #5 points off, #6 yds off, #2 points def, #2 yds def
NE: #2 points off, #1 yds off, #5 points def, #29 yds def
Phi: #3 points off, #7 yds off, #4 points def, #4 yds def
Min: #10 points off, #11 yds off, #1 points def, #1 yds def
2018
KC: #1 points off, #1 yds off, #24 points def, #31 yds def
NE: #4 points off, #5 yds off, #7 points def, #21 yds def
LAR: #2 points off, #2 yds off, #20 points def, #19 yds def
NO: #3 points off, #8 yds off, #14 points def, #14 yds def
2019
KC: #5 points off, #6 yds off, #7 points def, #17 yds def
Ten: #10 points off, #12 yds off, #12 points def, #21 yds def
SF: #2 points off, #4 yds off, #8 points def, #2 yds def
GB: #15 points off, #18 yds off, #9 points def, #18 yds def
2020
KC: #6 points off, #1 yds off, #10 points def, #16 yds def
Buf: #2 points off, #2 yds off, #16 points def, #14 yds def
TB: #3 points off, #7 yds off, #8 points def, #6 yds def
GB: #1 points off, #5 yds off, #13 points def, #9 yds def
2021
KC: #4 points off, #3 yds off, #8 points def, #27 yds def
Cin: #7 points off, #13 yds off, #17 points def, #18 yds def
SF: #13 points off, #7 yds off, #9 points def, #3 yds def
LAR: #7 points off, #9 yds off, #15 points def, #17 yds def
Average ranking
Points off: 5.3
Yards off: 6.4
Points def: 10.5
Yards def: 14.5
Number of top 5 ranked units
Points off: 12/20 (60.0%)
Yards off: 8/20 (40.0%)
Points def: 4/20 (20.0%)
Yards def: 5/20 (25.0%)
Super Bowl champ average ranking
Points off: 3.8
Yards off: 6.3
Points def: 6.5
Yards def: 12.0
Super Bowl champ top ranking (of the four teams in the CC games)
Points off: 0
Yards off: 0
Points def: 3
Yards def: 1
That last data set I need to explain a little more. I looked at the four teams in the conference championship games (we can't count this year because we're looking at SB winners, and obviously we aren't there yet with 2021). Of the four points offense rankings for the four finalists, which one had the highest ranking in that category, and then how many times did the team with the highest ranking (of the four teams) actually win the Super Bowl? So it's interesting that none of the teams with the highest points or yardage offense rankings (of the four remaining teams each year) won the Super Bowl, but three out of four times the team with the highest ranked point defense, and one team with the highest ranked yardage defense won the Super Bowl.
Seen another way, here's the rankings - AMONG THE FOUR REMAINING TEAMS - of the SB winners:
2017 (Phi): 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd = avg off rank: 5.0; avg def rank: 4.0
2018 (NE): 3rd, 3rd, 1st, 3rd = avg off rank: 4.5; avg def rank: 14.0
2019 (KC): 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd = avg off rank: 5.5; avg def rank: 12.0
2020 (TB): 3rd, 4th, 1st, 1st = avg off rank: 5.0; avg def rank: 7.0
So from this small sample, is it more important to have a great offense or a great defense in the modern NFL?
Gameday. Looks like Honey Badger's going to play. (Too bad. As much as I like him, I was hoping that he'd sit out).
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33177176/source-kansas-city-chiefs-tyrann-mathieu-concussion-set-play-afc-title-game
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33177176/source-kansas-city-chiefs-tyrann-mathieu-concussion-set-play-afc-title-game
Parking prices are insane at SoFi. I can’t imagine what they will be during the super bowl
View: https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/1487803706011578374
View: https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/1487803706011578374
Patrick Mahomes in three AFC Championship games:
16-31, 295 yds, 3 td, 0 int
23-35, 294 yds, 3 td, 0 int
29-38, 325 yds, 3 td, 0 int
TOT: 68-104 (65.3%), 914 yds, 8.8 y/a, 9 td, 0 int, 122.0 rating
Mahomes in the Super Bowl is another story:
26-42, 286 yds, 2 td, 2 int
26-49, 270 yds, 0 td, 2 int
TOT: 52-91 (57.1%), 556 yds, 6.1 y/a, 2 td, 4 int, 64.2 rating
But we're not to the SB yet, and in the AFCCG, the dude absolutely shines. Expect more of that today.
16-31, 295 yds, 3 td, 0 int
23-35, 294 yds, 3 td, 0 int
29-38, 325 yds, 3 td, 0 int
TOT: 68-104 (65.3%), 914 yds, 8.8 y/a, 9 td, 0 int, 122.0 rating
Mahomes in the Super Bowl is another story:
26-42, 286 yds, 2 td, 2 int
26-49, 270 yds, 0 td, 2 int
TOT: 52-91 (57.1%), 556 yds, 6.1 y/a, 2 td, 4 int, 64.2 rating
But we're not to the SB yet, and in the AFCCG, the dude absolutely shines. Expect more of that today.
The official with the better view of the play had the correct spot. Should’ve been called correctly on the field.
I bet at some point later on in the game Andy will sorely wish he had a challenge left for something more important.
The fact that he had the same 40 time as peyton manning will never stop being insane.
One of the announcers said that if they had lost the challenge they would have had no more challenges in the game… is that a thing?
