AFC playoff chase 2021
- Thread starter j-man
- Start date
And here's the flip side to "If the Bills had just run a dozen designed runs for Allen, they would have beaten the Pats on MNF"
If Allen's OK— a huge if— I think people are too low on Buffalo in this thread. Yes, they've fallen to 7-6, have a tendency to get gashed by huge run plays, something feels off with the mojo and coaching. Still, though, they have the second-highest point differential in the AFC by a wide margin, 3rd overall in DVOA (4th weighted) going into this week. They lost very close games to NE and TAM, and have one of the game's better players under center. I like them over anyone but NE or KC (or maybe TENN, with healthy Henry) in the playoffs.
My totally subjective rankings:
AFC
1. KC - I do not like this, Sam I am.
2. NE - A complete team right now.
3. Buf - I still think they're really good.
4. Ind - They're doing a lot of good things and will be a handful.
5. Ten - Especially if they get Henry back at full strength.
6. Cin - Explosive on offense, but it's....Cincinnati.
7. Bal - They're 9-4 so it seems crazy to have them this low, but that's where I've got them.
8. LAC - They're pretty good but I don't think they're better than the top 7.
9. Cle - Meh.
10. Den - Meh.
NFC
1. TB - They're still the champs.
2. Ari - I need to see Murray do it in the playoffs but they're pretty good all around.
3. GB - If the D shows up, they're very tough.
4. LAR - If Stafford plays well, this team is going to be hard to beat.
5. Dal - Another "you've got to prove it to me" team, but they have the pieces to be very good.
6. SF - I can't believe they're back in the playoff mix after the start they had to the season.
7. Min - Meh. They can be good or they can be bad.
8. Phi - Yuck.
9. Was - Yuck.
10. NO - Yuck.
The NFC is very top heavy and after the first few teams the quality drops off considerably. They have five teams at 6-7 vying for that last playoff spot. Six teams at either 7-6 or 6-7 vying for the last two spots. Reasonable chance an 8-9 team makes the playoffs in the NFC.
The AFC is solid up and down. Now that KC is playing like they are, and given that NE barely lost to both TB and Dal, I think the way these teams are playing right now, the AFC is the better conference. Better in depth for sure, and even at the top, I'd take KC and NE going up against the top of the NFC.
The playoffs are going to be great this year.
By current standings, here's the current playoff matchups:
AFC
1 NE bye
7 Buf at 2 Ten - I like Buf in that game unless Henry is back and playing at near 100%.
6 Ind at 3 KC - A tough matchup for KC given these teams' relative strengths and weaknesses.
5 LAC at 4 Bal - Could go either way. I could see the Chargers winning.
NFC
1 Ari bye
7 Was at 2 GB - Don't see the Pack losing that one.
6 SF at 3 TB - Don't see Tampa losing that one, though I could see SF giving them fits.
5 LAR at 4 Dal - This would be a great matchup.
AFC
1. KC - I do not like this, Sam I am.
2. NE - A complete team right now.
3. Buf - I still think they're really good.
4. Ind - They're doing a lot of good things and will be a handful.
5. Ten - Especially if they get Henry back at full strength.
6. Cin - Explosive on offense, but it's....Cincinnati.
7. Bal - They're 9-4 so it seems crazy to have them this low, but that's where I've got them.
8. LAC - They're pretty good but I don't think they're better than the top 7.
9. Cle - Meh.
10. Den - Meh.
NFC
1. TB - They're still the champs.
2. Ari - I need to see Murray do it in the playoffs but they're pretty good all around.
3. GB - If the D shows up, they're very tough.
4. LAR - If Stafford plays well, this team is going to be hard to beat.
5. Dal - Another "you've got to prove it to me" team, but they have the pieces to be very good.
6. SF - I can't believe they're back in the playoff mix after the start they had to the season.
7. Min - Meh. They can be good or they can be bad.
8. Phi - Yuck.
9. Was - Yuck.
10. NO - Yuck.
The NFC is very top heavy and after the first few teams the quality drops off considerably. They have five teams at 6-7 vying for that last playoff spot. Six teams at either 7-6 or 6-7 vying for the last two spots. Reasonable chance an 8-9 team makes the playoffs in the NFC.
The AFC is solid up and down. Now that KC is playing like they are, and given that NE barely lost to both TB and Dal, I think the way these teams are playing right now, the AFC is the better conference. Better in depth for sure, and even at the top, I'd take KC and NE going up against the top of the NFC.
The playoffs are going to be great this year.
By current standings, here's the current playoff matchups:
AFC
1 NE bye
7 Buf at 2 Ten - I like Buf in that game unless Henry is back and playing at near 100%.
6 Ind at 3 KC - A tough matchup for KC given these teams' relative strengths and weaknesses.
5 LAC at 4 Bal - Could go either way. I could see the Chargers winning.
NFC
1 Ari bye
7 Was at 2 GB - Don't see the Pack losing that one.
6 SF at 3 TB - Don't see Tampa losing that one, though I could see SF giving them fits.
5 LAR at 4 Dal - This would be a great matchup.
BAL is 8-5 and in some trouble. I agree that KC is looking tough and that BUFF will be a handful (assuming health for Allen). It’s trite but the difference maker is really Belichick for me; his ability to manipulate a game if Pats can play mistake free.
I would say Baltimore is in serious trouble not just trouble. I ain’t a Lamar Jackson guy as I think he stinks but the next 3 games are on home against Green Bay, at Cincinnati, home against the Rams. Then they finish at home with Pittsburgh. Their only saving grace is 3 of 4 at home. 9-8 or 8-9 is a definite reality for them.
Another killer for Baltimore is they have a terrible AFC record at 5-5. They will lose a ton of AFC tiebreakers because of it.
Chiefs-Chargers this Thursday seems likely to decide the AFC West. KC will definitely win the division if they win, being two games up. If LAC they'll be tied but they have such an easy schedule (@HOU, DEN, @LV) that they could very plausibly win out.
The Chiefs' run has been impressive but I don't feel like they've taken a real shot from a good team the entire time. Their best win was against Dallas but that game was really unusual, to the point where I'd give KC only half credit. Dak played terribly in the first half, missing wide open receivers left and right, then after Lamb got concussed Dallas essentially had no hope of coming back without him or Cooper on the field for the whole second half. Beyond that, they beat an LV team that has been in shambles twice, GB without Rodgers, Denver at home, and almost lost to the Giants.
The Chargers are so unpredictable that I wouldn't be surprised by any score. But I think they can definitely win if Herbert plays well.
The Chiefs' run has been impressive but I don't feel like they've taken a real shot from a good team the entire time. Their best win was against Dallas but that game was really unusual, to the point where I'd give KC only half credit. Dak played terribly in the first half, missing wide open receivers left and right, then after Lamb got concussed Dallas essentially had no hope of coming back without him or Cooper on the field for the whole second half. Beyond that, they beat an LV team that has been in shambles twice, GB without Rodgers, Denver at home, and almost lost to the Giants.
The Chargers are so unpredictable that I wouldn't be surprised by any score. But I think they can definitely win if Herbert plays well.
The only 2 teams that scare me in the post season are Kansas and Buffalo. Kansas for obvious reasons. They are a very good team that, like the Pats, have been trending upwards. You could argue that their upward trend has been more impressive than the Pats upward trend. Buffalo for a variety of reasons. They also are still a very good team, despite their recent losses. If the Pats beat them in 2 weeks, but they still manage to sneak into the playoffs, it will be hard to beat the same team 3 times within a matter of weeks, and Buffalo will have a huge chip on their shoulder. If Buffalo manage to beat the Pats in a few weeks, they will have the confidence that they can go toe to toe with the Pats at Gillette. My hope, and expectation, is that the Pats go 12-5 and Kansas does the same, giving the Pats not only the bye, but home field advantage (assuming TN doesn't win out), which will be huge if they end up playing Kansas in the AFCCG. Also hoping that they avoid Buffalo in any playoff games.
I agree with this. I think their volatility means they are not much of a real contender - they're not getting the bye, and I have a hard time seeing them win 4 games in a row against the teams at the top. But good Herbert, like we saw yesterday without his best receiver, is absolutely good enough to cause problems for the Chiefs on Thursday or in any individual playoff matchup.
I'd say similar in the NFC for Minnesota. They're not a great team and it would take a miracle to get through more than 1 of the teams ahead of them come January, but it would not shock me at all to see Cousins go crazy for a week and them upset one of the real contenders.
If NE falls short, I'm rooting for the Titans to go all the way on the back of a resurgent Henry. I would also not undersell them in the list of teams I'd be fairly concerned about meeting in January - Vrabel's been there before, and they were competitive with a very depleted roster just a couple weeks ago.
my 02 about playoff seeds up-to date
1 NE - KC
2 KC -NE
3 TENN
4 Ciny/balt
5 LAC
6 Indy
7 buff/den/mia
u guys need den or mia in the 7 spot if u get the 2 but if kc does u need buff in that spot
NFC
1 GB
2 TB
3 Zona/rams
4 dal
5 rams/zona
6 SF
7 Min/wft
right now it's NE-TB or KC-GB any combo of those 4
1 NE - KC
2 KC -NE
3 TENN
4 Ciny/balt
5 LAC
6 Indy
7 buff/den/mia
u guys need den or mia in the 7 spot if u get the 2 but if kc does u need buff in that spot
NFC
1 GB
2 TB
3 Zona/rams
4 dal
5 rams/zona
6 SF
7 Min/wft
right now it's NE-TB or KC-GB any combo of those 4
Maybe I'm just overly nervous but I still think Buffalo has a realistic shot at beating out the Pats for the division (caveat: if Allen is reasonably healthy). Their 2H against the Bucs show what they're capable of doing and so I'd give them ~40% odds of winning in Foxboro. The other 3 games are all at home against weaker opponents (Panthers, Falcons and Jets) so if they win the Pats game it's fairly reasonable to think they can run the table. In that scenario in order for NE to still take the division they'd have to run the table on the rest of their games which include a tough 50/50 game this week (@indy) and another one @Mia to finish the reg season.
All told call it .4 (Buf beats NE) x .667 (Buf wins other 3 games) x .75 (NE doesn't win all of its other 3) = .20
fivethirtyeight has them at 20% (using different odds than my assumptions for the 3 components) so it seems to work out
All told call it .4 (Buf beats NE) x .667 (Buf wins other 3 games) x .75 (NE doesn't win all of its other 3) = .20
fivethirtyeight has them at 20% (using different odds than my assumptions for the 3 components) so it seems to work out
Typically I would agree, but the Buffalo weakness really is exploited by the NE strength (run O vs run D). Plus the loss of White is really a problem if the Pats do start forcing 9 man boxes in better weather.
Sure Buffalo should be able to score better but it's not obvious after the struggles with Run D how Buffalo would match up against NE or Indy in a playoff game especially on the road.
There are a lot of really solid running teams in the AFC playoff hunt. NE and Indy are the obvious ones, but so are Tennessee (pending a healthy Henry), Baltimore and Cleveland (4th in rushing DVOA). The Bills really are built to beat KC, and only KC. I think it's still too early to take a victory lap and say that was the wrong move - the division may again go through the Pats, but the conference may go through KC.
So there is no way this game will be seen in the NYC market. What a bonehead move. I guess Jags at Jets will be equally entertaining.
Well obviously the NYC market is going to show a NYC team first and foremost, no matter how bad they are and no matter what other great games are being played. If the Pats were terrible, we'd still want the Pats shown here in New England over a better game involving non-NE teams.
Plus...Jax-NYJ might have some something at stake before it's all said and done.
Tank for Thibodeaux?Well obviously the NYC market is going to show a NYC team first and foremost, no matter how bad they are and no matter what other great games are being played. If the Pats were terrible, we'd still want the Pats shown here in New England over a better game involving non-NE teams.
Plus...Jax-NYJ might have some something at stake before it's all said and done.
I never expected that the Jets would not be on in the NYC market. What I hoped for was that the Patriots game would get flexed out of that time slot. Based on that Reiss tweet I was not alone in thinking (praying) that might happen. This Covid resurgence means I am not going anywhere near a sports bar so Red Zone it is.Well obviously the NYC market is going to show a NYC team first and foremost, no matter how bad they are and no matter what other great games are being played. If the Pats were terrible, we'd still want the Pats shown here in New England over a better game involving non-NE teams.
Plus...Jax-NYJ might have some something at stake before it's all said and done.
If you go to sportsurge.net you can pick up a link to watch the game. If you have Apple TV, you can mirror your computer or tablet to the TV and depending on your internet speed there isn't much of a delay. Otherwise, you can take an HDMI cable and connect your computer to the TV.
very boneheaded also if denver wins the next 2 weeks nbc needs to flex DEN @ LAC on SNF because winner gets in loser has to hope Buff fals
The Patriots loss does open the door for Miami still in the Division. They still have the Jets, at New Orleans, at Tennessee and then New England. Next week is not a hat and tshirt game unless the Jets pull a stunner today.
That would have to be one of the more unlikely outcomes in any divisional race. Here is the scenario: Dolphins run the table, beating TEN and NE, Pats go 1-2, and the Bills go 2-2 against a slate that includes CAR, ATL, and NYJ.
up-to-date
1 kc 10-4 only ciny stands between HF
2 ne 9-5 they have to win out and hope for help
3 tenn 9-5 likely locked in at 3
4 ciny 8-6 with a better o-line they are kc north
5 indy 8-6 a lock for 10 wins
6 LAC 8-6 likely 11-6
7 Buff 8-6 is the likely fav for 7 80% for 10 wins
8 balt 8-6 stareing at 9-8 and out
9 mia 7-7 if they can win their last 3 couild get the 7 i just dont see it but good bet for 9 through
10 cle 7-6 likely looking at 2 more L'S at least
11 pitt 7-6-1 got lucky today will be a underdog @ kc and @ balt
12 Den 7-7 if they dont beat vegas 7-10 unless kc rests
13 vegas can get to 8-7 but very unlikey they can beat both indy and lac
1 kc 10-4 only ciny stands between HF
2 ne 9-5 they have to win out and hope for help
3 tenn 9-5 likely locked in at 3
4 ciny 8-6 with a better o-line they are kc north
5 indy 8-6 a lock for 10 wins
6 LAC 8-6 likely 11-6
7 Buff 8-6 is the likely fav for 7 80% for 10 wins
8 balt 8-6 stareing at 9-8 and out
9 mia 7-7 if they can win their last 3 couild get the 7 i just dont see it but good bet for 9 through
10 cle 7-6 likely looking at 2 more L'S at least
11 pitt 7-6-1 got lucky today will be a underdog @ kc and @ balt
12 Den 7-7 if they dont beat vegas 7-10 unless kc rests
13 vegas can get to 8-7 but very unlikey they can beat both indy and lac
538 has the Pats winning the division at >99% if they win next weekend.
So I guess you're saying there's a chance.
So with the Raiders win, the picture gets even cloudier. 10 of the 16 AFC teams have either 6 or 7 losses. This has to be unprecedented the way it is clustered.
Damn, next week's schedule for the 7-7s and better
49ers at Titans
Browns at Packers
Colts at Cardinals
Bills at Patriots
Ravens at Bengals
Steelers at Chiefs
Broncos at Raiders
Dolphins at Saints
Chargers at Texans
Divisional race
1. NE 9-5, vs Buf, vs Jax, at Mia
2. Buf 8-6, at NE, vs Atl, vs NYJ
3. Mia 7-7, at NO, at Ten, vs NE
I think in order of difficulty from easiest to hardest, their remaining schedules are: Buffalo, New England, Miami.
I don't see Buffalo losing to either Atlanta or the Jets. I could see NE losing to Miami (isn't that place always a problem for the Pats?). The Dolphins could lose all three of their remaining games, and obviously are in the worst spot to begin with.
If Buffalo beats NE this weekend, the Pats would need (thanks to that stupid week 1 loss to Miami) to win out and have the Bills lose to either Atlanta or the Jets. Neither of those is likely, but hey, we never thought they'd lose to Jacksonville either. If the Pats win this week, they've locked up the tiebreaker over Buffalo, so that eliminates the Bills from divisional title contention. Then it's about the Dolphins, should they beat the Saints. The Pats would have a two game lead with two to go, so all NE would need is one win or one Miami loss. But if somehow the Pats were then to lose to Jax and Mia was to beat Ten, it would leave one game for the division - Pats at Miami. Which would be crazy.
Actually, there's still a real chance for a three-way tie atop the AFC East.
Pats beat Buf and lose to Jax and Mia, putting them at 10-7, 2-2 in H2H games among the three teams, and having a 4-2 divisional record.
Buf loses to NE and beats Atl and NYJ, putting them at 10-7, 2-2 in H2H games among the three teams, and having a 4-2 divisional record.
Mia wins all three games, putting them at 10-7, 2-2 in H2H games among the three teams, and having a 4-2 divisional record.
Then it's on to, what, conference records? In that case:
- NE would be 8-4.
- Buf would be 7-5.
- Mia would be 7-5.
So in a three-way tie, the Pats look like they'd win the division. It's only if it ends up tied between NE and Mia (meaning the Dolphins have beaten the Pats twice) without Buffalo in the mix, that the Pats would lose out on tiebreakers.
Still...coming down to a crazy, awesome finish in the division, never mind the conference as a whole.
1. NE 9-5, vs Buf, vs Jax, at Mia
2. Buf 8-6, at NE, vs Atl, vs NYJ
3. Mia 7-7, at NO, at Ten, vs NE
I think in order of difficulty from easiest to hardest, their remaining schedules are: Buffalo, New England, Miami.
I don't see Buffalo losing to either Atlanta or the Jets. I could see NE losing to Miami (isn't that place always a problem for the Pats?). The Dolphins could lose all three of their remaining games, and obviously are in the worst spot to begin with.
If Buffalo beats NE this weekend, the Pats would need (thanks to that stupid week 1 loss to Miami) to win out and have the Bills lose to either Atlanta or the Jets. Neither of those is likely, but hey, we never thought they'd lose to Jacksonville either. If the Pats win this week, they've locked up the tiebreaker over Buffalo, so that eliminates the Bills from divisional title contention. Then it's about the Dolphins, should they beat the Saints. The Pats would have a two game lead with two to go, so all NE would need is one win or one Miami loss. But if somehow the Pats were then to lose to Jax and Mia was to beat Ten, it would leave one game for the division - Pats at Miami. Which would be crazy.
Actually, there's still a real chance for a three-way tie atop the AFC East.
Pats beat Buf and lose to Jax and Mia, putting them at 10-7, 2-2 in H2H games among the three teams, and having a 4-2 divisional record.
Buf loses to NE and beats Atl and NYJ, putting them at 10-7, 2-2 in H2H games among the three teams, and having a 4-2 divisional record.
Mia wins all three games, putting them at 10-7, 2-2 in H2H games among the three teams, and having a 4-2 divisional record.
Then it's on to, what, conference records? In that case:
- NE would be 8-4.
- Buf would be 7-5.
- Mia would be 7-5.
So in a three-way tie, the Pats look like they'd win the division. It's only if it ends up tied between NE and Mia (meaning the Dolphins have beaten the Pats twice) without Buffalo in the mix, that the Pats would lose out on tiebreakers.
Still...coming down to a crazy, awesome finish in the division, never mind the conference as a whole.
I think there is an error somewhere in this scenario, since it would mean that if the Patriots beat Buffalo this weekend, they would clinch the division, and we know that they can’t mathematically clinch with just a win against Buffalo this weekend.
I don't believe that scenario is discounted.
If the Bills beat the Pats, the Pats would need the Bills to lose one or more of their remaining games while the Pats win out in order to win the division. All tiebreakers would favor the Bills in that scenario. Miami would still be alive for the division if they beat the Saints, but would need for the Bills to lose their remaining 2 games.
If the Pats beat Buffalo, the Bills would be eliminated from winning the division. The best the Bills could finish would be 10-7, while the Pats could be no worse than 10-7, and H2H would favor the Pats, as does the 3-way tie scenario above.
However if the Pats beat Buffalo, the Dolphins would still have a shot if they win out and the Pats lose out while Buffalo loses 1 more game to finish 9-8. Which is why Sunday cannot be a hat & T-shirt game. The Pats would still clinch if the Dolphins lose, but that game isn't until Monday night.
Ok I get it, so New England can’t clinch with a win Sunday vs Buffalo because Miami could still win the division on a head to head tiebreaker if both teams finish ahead of Buffalo, but NE wins if all three finish tied. Thanks, I was confused.
Miami is 6-2 vs New England in the last 8 in Miami. Conveniently stopping at 8 since I’m a Miami fan…
If you wanted to go to an even 10, it’s 6-4…which is still impressive considering the chasm that’s separated these teams the past decade.
Sharing since I happened to look this up recently. Thinking about the end of the season, I also had the thought that Miami has had NE’s number at home, and wasn’t sure if I was misguidedly romanticizing a couple wins or that was actually the case.
There's no need to even put an end date on it, they've owned the Patriots in Miami since the beginning of time. Per the below link, Miami is 39-17 all time in Miami vs. the Pats. In the Brady era, the Pats went 8-10 there (won in 2008 with Cassel so 9-10 total from 2001-2019). The Pats did win 7 out of 10 down there from 2003-2012, but are 2-6 since. Bledsoe only won there twice in his Pats career (he went 2-6).
https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-england-patriots/teamvsteam?opp=17&ha=A
Yeah that's why the win in the '85 playoffs was so shocking. The Pats never won in Miami. It was Hammer v. Nail most of the time.
The NFL says that if the Patriots win and the Dolphins lose on Monday then the Patriots will clinch the AFC East.
Yes, the NFL is correct.
Let's make all (or at least most of) the guesswork moot by beating Buffalo on Sunday.
So regardless of what happens vs Buffalo and Jacksonville, the game in Miami is going to matter/impact the Patriots playoff chances/seeding.
Wonderful.
Had I not been in the Orange Bowl in January of 1986 and seen it with my own eyes, I would not believe they actually won in Miami.
That one along with the first SB win over the Rams and the SB comeback SB win vs the Falcons are my top three all time favorite Patriots wins.
Well hopefully it won't impact the Patriots playoff CHANCES, though it will quite likely impact the Pats' playoff SEEDING.
I mean, for it to impact the Pats' playoff chances, NE needs to lose to Buffalo and then Miami at the end (assuming they beat Jax in between). That would put them at 10-7 and in with a pile of teams probably with the same record. Then it all comes down to all sorts of tiebreaker scenarios.
I mean, for it to impact the Pats' playoff chances, NE needs to lose to Buffalo and then Miami at the end (assuming they beat Jax in between). That would put them at 10-7 and in with a pile of teams probably with the same record. Then it all comes down to all sorts of tiebreaker scenarios.
The Dolphins been almost exactly .500 against each of the Bills and the Jets in MIA over the past twenty years or so. So it’s hard to believe that the weather - a common reason I’ve heard cited - is the reason why the Pats have struggled in Miami, because you’d expect Miami to have a better record at home against what have almost uniformly been worse teams than the Pats if that was the case.
I’m not particularly concerned about the Miami troubles as predictive of future games without an actual explanation for it.
I’m not particularly concerned about the Miami troubles as predictive of future games without an actual explanation for it.
Nothing that happens in Miami shocks me.
Not the John Smith miss in 1980 that led to an OT loss to a shit Miami team, knocking the Patriots out of the playoffs, to the loss again on Monday night in 2004 to a horrendously bad Miami team, to the loss the last game of the season to yet another shit Miami team that had their off season bags packed that ended up costing the Patriots HFA, to the miracle in Miami that propelled the Dolphins to a playoff wi...............oh right, they did shit that year, pardon me.
I hate the Dolphins with the fire of 10,000 suns; from the 70's when they used to come to Foxboro and destroy the Patriots, to the 80's when they had Marino and lit up the scoreboard, to the 90's with Johnson, to the past 20 or so years when they've sucked, but always found a way to fuck things up for the Patriots.
Yeah but that's without MAC JONES
If Miami wins the division please put me on suicide watch.
I wonder which of the other contenders in the AFC are rooting for (aside from a tie), Bills or Pats? KC is obviously circling the wagons. Tennessee would likely benefit more from a Bills win losing to us in a tie-breaker. The rest could be figuring we get in and hope to add to the Bills "L" column
Right now the Pats are the #6 seed, and if the playoffs ended today they’d travel to Cincinnati in the wild card round. As good as Joe Burrow looked today, that still the team I’d rather the Pats play in the first round.
What needs to happen for the Pats to miss the playoffs? I think the Chargers loss was a big plus for the playoff chances.