AFC Playoff Chase

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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AFC by Tiers

Tier 1 - Legit contenders: Buf, KC
Tier 2 - Can contend, but some things have to go right: Mia, Ten, Cin
Tier 3 - Can contend, but only if a bunch of things go right: Bal, LAC
Tier 4 - Can be a playoff team: NE, Ind, NYJ
Tier 5 - Maybe will be an 8-9 win team if things break right: Cle, Den, LV
Tier 6 - Yuck: Pit, Jax, Hou

I put Baltimore below teams like Ten, Cin, and Mia, only because Mia added nice pieces, Ten looks like they're very solid, and Cincy went to the SB last year and we know what Burrow can do in the playoffs. I just think that more has to go right for Baltimore to make it than it does for Mia/Ten/Cin, though people may certainly disagree with me on that.
my tiers
tier 1 Buff KC
tier 2 Tenn Mia NE Bait
tier 3 NYJ LAC CINY
Tier 4 indy cle den
tier 5 vegas jax pitt hou
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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I would go with 2 tiers. It’s Buffalo & Kansas City in one, and the rest of the mediocrity in the other. Literally the only question is which two of the other severally flawed AFC team get luck enough to get their doors blown off by either Buffalo or KC in the divisional round.
 

luckiestman

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Jul 15, 2005
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my tiers
tier 1 Buff KC
tier 2 Tenn Mia NE Bait
tier 3 NYJ LAC CINY
Tier 4 indy cle den
tier 5 vegas jax pitt hou
I can go along with this. Only thing I would say is that the gap between tier 1 and tier 2 is large. H2H nothing would really surprise me with T2 thru T4 and even the Raiders beating any of these teams wouldn’t surprise me.
 

Jungleland

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Legit contenders: Buffalo KC
Teams that are probably not good enough to win the super bowl but good enough to beat anyone on a good day: Balt Ten Miami
Teams that suck right now but could be interesting if they get it together: SD LV NE Cin NYJ Den Cle
See you next year: Indy Jax Houston Pit
 
Apr 24, 2019
1,124
Legit contenders: Buffalo KC
Teams that are probably not good enough to win the super bowl but good enough to beat anyone on a good day: Balt Ten Miami
Teams that suck right now but could be interesting if they get it together: SD LV NE Cin NYJ Den Cle
See you next year: Indy Jax Houston Pit
Agree completely. Although, I’d put Cincy up a tier once Chase is back.
 

mikeot

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Dec 22, 2006
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Legit contenders: Buffalo KC
Teams that are probably not good enough to win the super bowl but good enough to beat anyone on a good day: Balt Ten Miami
Teams that suck right now but could be interesting if they get it together: SD LV NE Cin NYJ Den Cle
See you next year: Indy Jax Houston Pit
Concur but for the wheels seemingly falling off in Miami lately.
 

Old Fart Tree

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I would go with 2 tiers. It’s Buffalo & Kansas City in one, and the rest of the mediocrity in the other. Literally the only question is which two of the other severally flawed AFC team get luck enough to get their doors blown off by either Buffalo or KC in the divisional round.
yeah. I was going to argue thatNE should be tier 3 or whatever but it’s two Johns and 14 Ringos in the AFC
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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4 of the top 8 teams in the AFC standings are in the AFC East. The Pats are #4 in the division and #8 in the conference.

AFC Beast indeed.
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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AFC Stanings
1 Buff 6-2 rating 93 still likely 12-13 wins
2 tie KC /TENN BOTH 5-2 Rating 91 Kc has trouble with phyical teams Tenn if they can get good qb play are a sleeper
4 Balt 5-3 if they can win tomm night will likely go on a run rating 90
5 NYJ 6-3 if they beat NE will likely knock NE out rating 89
6 Mia 6-3 they also look like a 11-12 win team rating 88
7 NE 5-4 great win today but they are in trouble for a playoff shot because 10 might not be enough rating 86
8 LAC 5-3 they are a coach away from greatness rating 85
9 Ciny 5-4 they will be right there rating 83
10 Cle 3-5 they are up/down shouild be good in 23 rating 79
11 den 3-5 if denver def keeps this up they can end the rams season and keep LAC out of the playoffs rating 75
12 indy 3-5-1 they have no o-line taylor has missed a huge chuck and no qb hey at least u have your 1st round pick rating 72
13 Jax 3-6 couild be a sleeper in 23 rating 70
14 Vegas 2-6 they need a overhaul rating 69
15 pitt 2-6 they might be done utill 24 or 25 rating 66
16 hou 1-6-1 great furue after 22 rating 65
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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tiers
tier 1 KC Buff Tenn Balt
Tier 2 Mia NE NYJ
Tier 3 LAC Ciny
tier 4 Cle Den jax
tier 5 vegas indy pitt hou
 

JMDurron

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tiers
tier 1 KC Buff Tenn Balt
Tier 2 Mia NE NYJ
Tier 3 LAC Ciny
tier 4 Cle Den jax
tier 5 vegas indy pitt hou
I would swap NE and Cincy in this list. Patriots seem like a defense-heavy team that lacks Cincy’s upside. I’m bullish on Cincy’s OL play going forward, even without Chase.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Turnovers, as always, are so critical for this team.

3 games they've turned it over more than once (3 at Mia, 4 vs Bad, 4 vs Chi), and they're 0-3 in those games.
6 games they've turned it over just once, and they're 5-1 in those games.

Interesting that they haven't played a clean game yet this year. I would think that 9 straight games with a turnover allowed is the longest such streak for BB as Pats' HC.

The offense has really struggled though. The last three games the offense has scored 55 points (18.3/game) and has averaged just 250 yards per game, while committing 6 turnovers.
 

DJnVa

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Interesting that they haven't played a clean game yet this year. I would think that 9 straight games with a turnover allowed is the longest such streak for BB as Pats' HC.
They had a 10 game streak from the last 2 regular season games of 2019, plus the WC game, then the first 7 games of 2020.

They also had a 9 game streak with the last 2 postseason games of 2017 and they first 7 games of 2018.

They had an 8 game streak in 2015.

They had a 10 game streak in 2013.

Then I stopped looking.
 

Brand Name

make hers mark
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Interesting that they haven't played a clean game yet this year. I would think that 9 straight games with a turnover allowed is the longest such streak for BB as Pats' HC.
From 11/3/2003 to 11/22/2004, the Patriots had at least one turnover in 21 straight regular season games, the longest such streak in the BB era. If you include the 2003-04 playoffs, it's 24 straight.

They were 20-1 in those regular season games; 23-1 if you count the Super Bowl 38 playoff run.
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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1 KC 7-2 getting better every week
2 mia 7-3 with a better def they couild be super bound in 2023
3 balt 6-3 should win the north
4 NYJ 6-3 have everything but the qb
5 buff 6-3 still a great team but loseing steam
6 Tenn 6-3 i watched them today and other then their great d-line they can be beat
7 ciny 5-4 with burrow anything is possable
8 ne 5-4 still should sneak in as the 6 or 7 seed
9 LAC 5-3 coaching will likely keep them out if they win they are 7
10 indy 4-5-1 can play spoiller
11 den 3-6 gave a great effort but need a brand new o-line
12 cle 3-6 a team to watch for 23
13 Jax 3-7 see Cle
14 pitt 3-6 they have a long hill to climb
15 vegas 2-7 if they lose next week couild lose out
16 hou 1-7-1 looking at a 3rd coach in 3 years
 

luckiestman

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We’re getting to the point where it looks like 9 teams for 7 slots. If only 2 teams from the east make it because they beat each other up, the other 5 are set.
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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i think 3 are in the east
north it's balt/ciny
south its tenn/indy
west its kc

so my 02 its 1 spot between NYJ/NE/CINY/LAC/
 

luckiestman

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i think 3 are in the east
north it's balt/ciny
south its tenn/indy
west its kc

so my 02 its 1 spot between NYJ/NE/CINY/LAC/
Next week is huge for the Jesters. If they win I think they can get to 10. If they lose, that’s going to be tough. They should win, they have better players but BB is still BB.

57613
 

BigSoxFan

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Pats are the 7th seed as of today.
Sunday is close to a must-win with the Vikes and Bills coming after the Jets. Win 2 of the next 3 and playoffs are a real possibility. Go 1-2 or 0-3 and it’s probably over.
 

cshea

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To me, the Pats still feel like a longshot given their schedule and current offensive ineptness. Some games may look easier now than they did before the season (@ Vegas; @ Arizona) but they still have a very difficult path to 10 wins. I guess 9 wins may be good enough if they win the right ones for tiebreak purposes but it still seems like a big uphill climp for them.

Wish they could've pulled out the GB game or just beaten a bad CHI team at home. An extra early win in their back pocket would've given them a slight margain for error down the stretch.
 

RedOctober3829

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To me, the Pats still feel like a longshot given their schedule and current offensive ineptness. Some games may look easier now than they did before the season (@ Vegas; @ Arizona) but they still have a very difficult path to 10 wins. I guess 9 wins may be good enough if they win the right ones for tiebreak purposes but it still seems like a big uphill climp for them.

Wish they could've pulled out the GB game or just beaten a bad CHI team at home. An extra early win in their back pocket would've given them a slight margain for error down the stretch.
They have to beat the Jets, Vegas, and Arizona then find 2 more wins out of Buffalox2, at Minnesota, and home Cincy and Miami. Even winning those Vegas and AZ games will be tough since they're likely staying on the road for that whole time.
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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Arkansas
w 11
1 Tenn 7-3 - yes they are likely to fail aga KC or Buff in the playoffs but they are as close as u can get to the 03 pats in the morden game and when bill goes mr kraft needs to hire vrabel
2 Kc 7-2 other than @ LAC @ CINY Sch is sitting nice for them to get a 1 seed
3 Balt 7-3 Cake Sch comeing up which means if kc silps balt will get home field
4 Mia 7-3 afc east favs lock for 11 wins which means no worse than 5
5 Buff 7-3 they have the most talent in the AFC but something off
6 Ne - 6-4 take notes hackett they are exutered the form hackett shouild have from week 1 if NE can win 1 of the next 2 will make the playoffs
7 LAC 5-4 Starting to get everyone back can go 6-2 over the last 8 or 3-5 jecker and hyde
8 ciny 6-4 not enrough def can they get to 11
9 indy 4-6-1 sat is a good coach their owner shouild had done this in the offseason oh well
10 NYJ 6-4 sorry luckestman that kind of loss is a gut punch idk if u can recover from
11 jax 3-7 they have outscore their opp this year if lawrence takes 1 more leap couild win the afc south in 23
12 Vegas 3-7 cant play denver every week have only 1 def player will lose jacobs in offseason
13 Den 3-7 had hackett done this in week 1 couild been 6-4 right now that said denver can go 1 of 2 ways A fire hackett the gm and blow everything up getting high draft picks for jerdy and simmons or B fire hackett hire a vet coach and inprove the ol and win 9-10 games in 23 but by doing so wilson might be shot which means denver is likely looking at 3 lost seasons
14 Cle 3-7 even with watson in 23 they are a 500 team at best
15 pitt 3-7 pickett looks like a bust they remind me of the 2018 broncos which means welcome to bad football 85-88 syile
16 hou 1-8-1 they are looking at 2 top 10 picks in 23 but they also look 3 years away
 
Aug 9, 2015
886
They have to beat the Jets, Vegas, and Arizona then find 2 more wins out of Buffalox2, at Minnesota, and home Cincy and Miami. Even winning those Vegas and AZ games will be tough since they're likely staying on the road for that whole time.
Well, one down. The way they play, they’ll have a chance, with things coming down to a few plays each game one way or the other. Belichick excels in those situations, and so do his players, generally speaking.

Minnesota turning back into a pumpkin today wasn’t so surprising. Will be interesting to see how they respond.
 

cshea

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Feels like 4 teams for the final 2 spots- New England, New York Jets, Cincy, LAC. Schedules:

NE: @ Minnesota (THU), Buffalo (THU), @ Arizona, @ Las Vegas (SNF/ probably flexed), Cincy, Miami, @ Buffalo
NYJ: Chicago, @ Minnesota, @ Buffalo, Detroit, Jacksonville, @ Seattle, @ Miami
Cincy: @ Tennessee, Kansas City, Cleveland, @ Tampa Bay, @ New England, Buffalo, Baltimore
LAC: @ Arizona, @ Las Vegas, Miami, Tennessee, @ Indy, Los Angeles Rams, @ Denver

NE, NYJ and Cincy are all facing gauntlets. LAC has the *easiest* road but I don't think there's any layups for them and they're also the furthers out from a spot at the moment.

The division races are still in play so NE/NYJ/Cincy coudl change places with Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore. But this appears to be how the race is shaping up.
 

tims4wins

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Feels like 4 teams for the final 2 spots- New England, New York Jets, Cincy, LAC. Schedules:

NE: @ Minnesota (THU), Buffalo (THU), @ Arizona, @ Las Vegas (SNF/ probably flexed), Cincy, Miami, @ Buffalo
NYJ: Chicago, @ Minnesota, @ Buffalo, Detroit, Jacksonville, @ Seattle, @ Miami
Cincy: @ Tennessee, Kansas City, Cleveland, @ Tampa Bay, @ New England, Buffalo, Baltimore
LAC: @ Arizona, @ Las Vegas, Miami, Tennessee, @ Indy, Los Angeles Rams, @ Denver

NE, NYJ and Cincy are all facing gauntlets. LAC has the *easiest* road but I don't think there's any layups for them and they're also the furthers out from a spot at the moment.

The division races are still in play so NE/NYJ/Cincy coudl change places with Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore. But this appears to be how the race is shaping up.
Given those schedules, 9-8 may be good enough, and 10-7 is a near-lock.
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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Feels like 4 teams for the final 2 spots- New England, New York Jets, Cincy, LAC. Schedules:

NE: @ Minnesota (THU), Buffalo (THU), @ Arizona, @ Las Vegas (SNF/ probably flexed), Cincy, Miami, @ Buffalo
NYJ: Chicago, @ Minnesota, @ Buffalo, Detroit, Jacksonville, @ Seattle, @ Miami
Cincy: @ Tennessee, Kansas City, Cleveland, @ Tampa Bay, @ New England, Buffalo, Baltimore
LAC: @ Arizona, @ Las Vegas, Miami, Tennessee, @ Indy, Los Angeles Rams, @ Denver

NE, NYJ and Cincy are all facing gauntlets. LAC has the *easiest* road but I don't think there's any layups for them and they're also the furthers out from a spot at the moment.

The division races are still in play so NE/NYJ/Cincy coudl change places with Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore. But this appears to be how the race is shaping up.
looks like to me Ne @ minn tossup buff i will be rooting for u but likely L @ Zona Tossup @ Vegas Win Cincy Tossup Miami Tossup @buff L
NYJ Chi W @ MINN L @ BUFF Tossup Detroit W Jax W @ Sea L @ MIA L
Ciny @ tenn L KC Tossup cle W @ TB L @ NE Tossup Buff Tossup Balt W
LAC @ Zona Tossup @ lv W Miami L Tenn Tossup @ INDY W Rams W @ DEN W

looking at the sch Jets are out if LAC beats 2 of Zona Tenn Mia they are in to me that NE/CINY game will be a playoff game
 

luckiestman

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If Jesters can beat one of Minn/SEA, they have a shot to get to 10. I think they have a shot against the Vikes based on the way the teams match up but maybe that is green tinted glasses.

I think the Chargers can get to 10

If the Pats can get to 10, BB will have impressed me again. Jets not being able to split with the Pats has put us in trouble and given you life

Ravens are getting 10 and maybe more unless they collapse

Cincy may also go above 10. Think we are going to get multiple 10 win teams and tie breakers might come into play.
 

Salva135

Cassandra
Mike White seems have to lit a fire under the Jets. The Bears aren't great, but they were 9th in passing D. With their defense they were always competent QB play away from being really good, and if they get that, the Pats are staying at the bottom of the division.
 

luckiestman

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Mike White seems have to lit a fire under the Jets. The Bears aren't great, but they were 9th in passing D. With their defense they were always competent QB play away from being really good, and if they get that, the Pats are staying at the bottom of the division.
Bears were down a lot of guys and post trades I don’t think it’s the same D either. Mike W will get the ball out and he is calm. All that said, 4 of 6 upcoming games are tough: Vikes, Bills, Lions, Jags, Seattle, Fish.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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1. KC (9-2): at Cin, at Den, at Hou, vs Sea, vs Den, at LV - should go 6-0 in those games and finish at 15-2. Maybe lose at Cin but that's probably it.
2. Mia (8-3): at SF, at LAC, at Buf, vs GB, at NE, vs NYJ - very tough schedule...I think they could go 2-4 to finish at 10-7. Call it 11-6 though.
3. Ten (7-4): at Phi, vs Jax, at LAC, vs Hou, vs Dal, at Jax - not easy, but should win 10 games and win the division. Even 9-8 likely wins the division.
4. Bal (7-4): vs Den, at Pit, at Cle, vs Atl, vs Pit, at Cin - pretty soft schedule, should get to 11 or 12 wins and win the division.
5. Buf (8-3): at NE, vs NYJ, vs Mia, at Chi, at Cin, vs NE - depends on how good NE really is, but I see But finishing with 11-12 wins. Game vs Mia is huge.
6. Cin (7-4): vs KC, vs Cle, at TB, at NE, vs Buf, vs Bal - brutal schedule; I could see them finishing at 9-8, 10-7 max.
7. NYJ (7-4): at Min, at Buf, vs Det, vs Jax, at Sea, at Mia - challenging schedule, figure they go 3-3 and end up at 10-7.
8. NE (6-5): vs Buf, at Ari, at LV, vs Cin, vs Mia, at Buf - very tough schedule, probably will win only 2 more games but will have to find a way to win 3 at least to have a chance. 4 might be necessary. The games at Ari and LV - the most winnable games on the schedule - are must-wins.
9. LAC (6-5): at LV, vs Mia, vs Ten, at Ind, vs LAR, at Den - manageable, but not a cakewalk at all. Probably goes 3-3, maybe 4-2 to get to 10-7 at best.

So the way I look at it, it'll finish:

AFCE: Buf 12-5
AFCS: Ten 10-7
AFCN: Bal 12-5
AFCW: KC 14-3
WC1: Mia 11-6

Then it's a mess. NYJ at 10-7, LAC at 10-7, Cin at 10-7 or 9-8. NE would need to get to 10-7. If they get there, if one of those wins is against Cincy, then they'd hold the tiebreaker over both the Jets and Cincy, which could be huge.

So the Pats HAVE to go 4-2 over these last 6 games, in my opinion, with one of those wins being against the Bengals. Man, it's not going to be easy. It will at least be a season of meaningful football right up til the end, I think. Every week at this point feels like a playoff game.
 

Remagellan

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The Pats need to win the next four games or there's little chance they'll make the playoffs. The AFC East race is too tight to imagine that the Bills will be resting players in that final game, so the Pats' best chance of beating them is this Thursday, and I agree that the wins against the Cardinals and Raiders are musts given the strength of the other teams remaining on the schedule, and beating the Bengals is critical for the tiebreaker.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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It’s entirely possible that Cincy and the Jets lose this week. If that happens and the Pats somehow beat Buffalo, the Pats jump right back into the #6 spot. There’s gonna be lots of movement these last six weeks among the wild card hopefuls.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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What's the list of teams that realistically have a chance of winning it all this year?

Short List: KC, Phi, Buf (yes them over Miami still)
Full List: KC, Phi, Buf, Mia, Min, Ten, SF, Bal, Cin, TB (if they get in, I can see them making a run)
 

Rudy's Curve

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What's the list of teams that realistically have a chance of winning it all this year?

Short List: KC, Phi, Buf (yes them over Miami still)
Full List: KC, Phi, Buf, Mia, Min, Ten, SF, Bal, Cin, TB (if they get in, I can see them making a run)
I'm sure leaving Dallas out completely was an oversight, but I'd put them on the short list. They lead the NFC in SRS (almost two points ahead of Philly) despite playing half the year with a backup QB. I'm not sure you can trust Dak in the cold assuming they don't win the division (although Philly is the only cold-weather place they'd play) or McCarthy in January, but they're really good.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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What's the list of teams that realistically have a chance of winning it all this year?

Short List: KC, Phi, Buf (yes them over Miami still)
Full List: KC, Phi, Buf, Mia, Min, Ten, SF, Bal, Cin, TB (if they get in, I can see them making a run)
Apologies for the thread divergence but I think San Francisco is in that short list. Their D is clearly legit and while Jimmy G may or may not be up to the task, they have the requisite elite players at skill positions on offense. Depending on your view of QB, they are a pretty complete team.
 

ShaneTrot

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I will watch every game but I think this New England team is the least talented out of all the AFC contenders, TN's talent on offense is lame but I trust their defense more than New England's. Plus this team plays stupid situational football. I love Mac but he is not winning a shoot-out against Buffalo, Miami, or Cincinnati. I am hoping for improvement by the Pats down the stretch.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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I'm sure leaving Dallas out completely was an oversight, but I'd put them on the short list. They lead the NFC in SRS (almost two points ahead of Philly) despite playing half the year with a backup QB. I'm not sure you can trust Dak in the cold assuming they don't win the division (although Philly is the only cold-weather place they'd play) or McCarthy in January, but they're really good.
Yep, total oversight. I don't see them on the short list but definitely they've got a puncher's chance for sure.
 

Oil Can Dan

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What's the list of teams that realistically have a chance of winning it all this year?

Short List: KC, Phi, Buf (yes them over Miami still)
Full List: KC, Phi, Buf, Mia, Min, Ten, SF, Bal, Cin, TB (if they get in, I can see them making a run)
My short list: KC, Philly, Miami, Buffalo, SF, Dallas.

Miami is playing at a much higher level than Buffalo, and I think they'll continue to improve from here. Gun to my head I've got Miami @ KC and SF @ Philly in the championship games.
 

BigSoxFan

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Apologies for the thread divergence but I think San Francisco is in that short list. Their D is clearly legit and while Jimmy G may or may not be up to the task, they have the requisite elite players at skill positions on offense. Depending on your view of QB, they are a pretty complete team.
Yeah, SF definitely in that short list for me. Their defense is nasty and their offense, when healthy, is a handful to match up with. Didn’t click yesterday but I also think they’re managing CMAC’s reps a bit.