AFC Playoff Chase

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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Arkansas
1 KC - 9 -2 but beware in gaveing RB M Gordon the ball
2 mia 8-3 they are a lock at 10-11 wins
3 Tenn 7-4 yes they lost but will be a tough machup for anyone
4 Balt 7-4 soft sch but beware the @ pitt and @ ciny games
5 Buff 8-3 must win thur night or they will be a wild card
6 Cin 7-4 they can get to 11-6
7 NYJ 7-4 50-50 at 10-7 more likely 9-8
8 LAC 6-5 plob 10-7 at worst
9 NE 6-5 sorry guys but vegas now looks like a 50-50 game buff 2 plus miami and ciny means long odds for playoffs
10 indy 4-6-1 almost need to win out
11 Cle 4-7 jekel and hyde
12 jax 4-7 its all about trevor
13 vegas 4-7 the closer they get to 500 the better they will be in 23
14 pitt 3-7 this is the 1 team i got right
15 den 3-8 it's all about 2023 at this point
16 hou 1-9-1 see den
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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My short list: KC, Philly, Miami, Buffalo, SF, Dallas.

Miami is playing at a much higher level than Buffalo, and I think they'll continue to improve from here. Gun to my head I've got Miami @ KC and SF @ Philly in the championship games.
my afc nfc champ game picks BALT@ KC SF @ PHILLY
 

ObstructedView

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It's looking like the NFC North may end up being the key to NE's demise - losing to a GB team we now know to be bad, the inexplicable Bears debacle at home, and gifting a game to a very beatable Vikings team (yes, with some help from the refs). They've put themselves in a position where they'll likely need at least one win against the Bills or Bengals. The Dolphins now own them, and I could see the AZ game being sneaky difficult given the Pats' recent history against running QBs.

I got conditioned to expecting them to figure things out down the stretch, but they're somewhere around .500 after Thanksgiving over the past 3 seasons - losing key games to the Bills and Dolphins in each of those years. I guess this is the life of a middle-of-the-pack team.
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
3,678
Arkansas
1 buff- 9-3 everything is going their way
2 Kc 9-3 i do not think they can win in buff
3 ciny 8-4 i think they win the north
4 tenn 8-4 a good team but not great
5 mia 8-4 they need their CB to get healhy or its 1 and done
6 balt 8-4 if jackout is out their season is over
7 NYJ 7-5 can they get to 10
8 ne 6-6 see nyj
9 lac 6-6 now looking at 9-8 or 8-9
10 Pitt 5-7 couild get to 9-8
11 Vegas 5-7 i think the winner of vegas pitt on chriseve will get to 9-8
12 cle 5-7 7 wins to me
13 indy 4-7-1 see cle
14 jax 4-8 its all about can trevor take that leap in 23
15 den 3-9 looks like a rebuild
16 hou 1-10-1 can they hit the num 1 pick
 

Justthetippett

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Aug 9, 2015
2,444
I think the Pats are likely to lose to either Ariz or LV, which will put the playoff dream to bed. They needed to bank a few games early and not getting anything out of GB, CHI, or MIN really hurts. Buff might be playing for a bye in Week 18, and if so that’s a certain loss, so they’ll need to run the rest of table to get to 10. Don’t see it happening.
 
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DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
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I can see the Pats winning a crazy tiebreaker at 9-8. The Jets can still lose to all of BUF, SEA, MIA on the road, and the Lions have been a weird team this year. Chargers who knows what the tiebreaker would be there.
 

rodderick

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The Raiders now face the Wolford led Rams so there's a reasonable chance they'll get the Patriots at home with the possibility of overtaking NE in the standings with a win, regardless of how the Pats do against the Cardinals.
 

JimD

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Nov 29, 2001
8,692
If BUF wins the 1 seed, they will have earned it - the home game vs. MIA and the week 17 Monday night tilt at Cincinnati loom large, and they can't afford to slip up against NYJ and NE either. Only CHI is probably a gimme for them. By contrast, KC has a much easier schedule than BUF down the stretch (@ DEN, @HOU, vs. SEA, vs. DEN, @LV).
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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Locks
1 Buff 10-3 if they get homefield they are going to the super bowl
2 KC 10-3 Great talent but can be had by passing teams i e Buff philly
3 Bait 9-4 darkhorse but their QB will cost them aga buff kc

Likely
4 Tenn 7-6 will win the south by defauit cant see jax going 4-0 over next 4
5 Ciny 9-4 if they win in tampa they are likely to beat bait in week 18 and win the nortn

the chase
6 Mia 8-5 if they can win sat night and buff loses to ciny miami wins the east
7 LAC 7-6 Lock for 10 wins

just missed
8 NYJ 7-6 can they win @ Sea or @ MIA and does LAC blow a game to indy the rams or den
9 Ne 6-6 i am loseing faith in this team without bill they are the denver pats

everyone else
10 Jax 5-8 might win the south in 23
11 Vegas 5-8 will they get brady or jimmy g or stick with carr beat denver twice but go 6-11
12 pitt 5-8 bad qb play remind me of denver 2018-20
13 cle 5-8 next year is when we know is it a teardown or rebuild
14 indy 4-8-1 they are in hell not bad enrough to get a qb but bad enrough to get only 7 wins
15 Den 3-10 see indy allthrough with a new coach and o-line couild win 9 games next year
16 hou 1- 11 - 1 2 top 10 picks intsresting times
 

Rudy's Curve

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Cincinnati likely needs Baltimore to lose to Cleveland to have a chance at the North. They play Week 18 in Cincy but Baltimore will win the tiebreaker regardless, so the Bengals need to come into that tied or ahead. However, they’ve got a much tougher schedule the next three weeks (at TB, at NE, vs. BUF) while the Ravens have at CLE/vs. ATL/vs. PIT. Any given Sunday (or Saturday Week 16), yada yada, but I can’t see how the Ravens lose another home game.
 

Justthetippett

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Aug 9, 2015
2,444
Cincinnati likely needs Baltimore to lose to Cleveland to have a chance at the North. They play Week 18 in Cincy but Baltimore will win the tiebreaker regardless, so the Bengals need to come into that tied or ahead. However, they’ve got a much tougher schedule the next three weeks (at TB, at NE, vs. BUF) while the Ravens have at CLE/vs. ATL/vs. PIT. Any given Sunday (or Saturday Week 16), yada yada, but I can’t see how the Ravens lose another home game.
They could easily lose if Jackson is not healthy. They have also won some real squeakers so their close game luck could change.
 
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luckiestman

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Jul 15, 2005
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Buffalo
KC
CINCY
TENN
JETS
CHARGERS
FISH

RD1

KC Squish Fish
Joe Cool Zaps Chargers
Jets youth will be served

RD 2

Mike White get revenge for his broken ribs by breaking Buffalo’s back

KC breaks the Bengal streak

RD 3

Saleh’s revenge for the SB, Jets shock Chiefs in Arrowhead
 

ObstructedView

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I just don't see it with the Jets. They have a good defense and some offensive talent but have consistently fallen behind, and that's not a good recipe when your QB is Mike White/ Zombie Joe Flacco/ Zach Wilson. The Detroit matchup is no cakewalk, and they still have to play in two difficult road locations in Seattle and Miami.
 

tims4wins

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Jul 15, 2005
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Taking a deep dive into the 6th and 7th seed, with the Pats, Chargers, and Jets all tied at 7-6, and Miami at 8-5

Miami: 6-3 AFC; remaining schedule @ BUF, vs GB, @ NE, vs NYJ. Likely to win 2 or 3 games and get to 10 or 11 wins and safely in the playoffs, likely as the 6 seed
NE: 5-3 AFC; remaining schedule @ LV, vs CIN, vs MIA, @ BUF. Assuming a win in LV (which obviously is no given), would need a win vs. either CIN or MIA at home to get to 9-8. This would put their AFC record at 7-5.
LAC: 5-4 AFC; remaining schedule vs TEN, @ IND, vs LAR, @ DEN. Easiest remaining schedule. If they win 3 of 4, they get to 10 wins and likely the 7th seed. If they only split, it obviously depends which games they win, as they could either finish 7-5 or 6-6 in the AFC if they finish 9-8 overall.
NYJ: 5-5 AFC; remaining schedule vs DET, vs JAX, @ SEA, @ MIA. Winnable next two, then a pair of difficult road games. There's a path to 3-1, but 2-2 or even 1-3 seems more likely. Doubtful they get to 7-5 AFC; 6-6 more likely.

Ultimately I think Miami and the Chargers make it, but if the Pats beat Vegas and can take 1 of 2 against Cincy and Miami and are tied with the Chargers headed into week 18, it could come down to that game in Denver.
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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Taking a deep dive into the 6th and 7th seed, with the Pats, Chargers, and Jets all tied at 7-6, and Miami at 8-5

Miami: 6-3 AFC; remaining schedule @ BUF, vs GB, @ NE, vs NYJ. Likely to win 2 or 3 games and get to 10 or 11 wins and safely in the playoffs, likely as the 6 seed
NE: 5-3 AFC; remaining schedule @ LV, vs CIN, vs MIA, @ BUF. Assuming a win in LV (which obviously is no given), would need a win vs. either CIN or MIA at home to get to 9-8. This would put their AFC record at 7-5.
LAC: 5-4 AFC; remaining schedule vs TEN, @ IND, vs LAR, @ DEN. Easiest remaining schedule. If they win 3 of 4, they get to 10 wins and likely the 7th seed. If they only split, it obviously depends which games they win, as they could either finish 7-5 or 6-6 in the AFC if they finish 9-8 overall.
NYJ: 5-5 AFC; remaining schedule vs DET, vs JAX, @ SEA, @ MIA. Winnable next two, then a pair of difficult road games. There's a path to 3-1, but 2-2 or even 1-3 seems more likely. Doubtful they get to 7-5 AFC; 6-6 more likely.

Ultimately I think Miami and the Chargers make it, but if the Pats beat Vegas and can take 1 of 2 against Cincy and Miami and are tied with the Chargers headed into week 18, it could come down to that game in Denver.
yep and the Chargers have a hard time winning in denver i couild see denver going all-out in that one if anything to push sea pick in the 5-6 range
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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NE needs to win these next 3 games to get to 10-6 because buff will likely be playing that last game for the 1 seed if they beat ciny
 

DJnVa

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Dec 16, 2010
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Here's 538's playoff prediction page--you can enter a result for each game and it'll show you a team's playoff odds.

They have the pats at 40% now. A Pats win and some help (Buffalo, Detroit, Tennessee wins) and Pats jump to 72%.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Four games remaining....I'm assuming these teams are IN: Buffalo, KC, Bal, Cincy, Ten. That leaves the following teams fighting for the last two spots: NE, Mia, NYJ, LAC.

Mia (8-5): at Buf (10-3), vs GB (5-8), at NE (7-6), vs NYJ (7-6) - 29-23 tot
NE (7-6): at LV (5-8), vs Cin (9-4), vs Mia (8-5), at Buf (10-3) - 32-20 tot
LAC (7-6): vs Ten (7-6), at Ind (4-8-1), vs LAR (4-9), at Den (3-10) - 18-33-1 tot
NYJ (7-6): vs Det (6-7), vs Jax (5-8), at Sea (7-6), at Mia (8-5) - 26-26 tot

The Chargers have by far the easiest remaining schedule of the four, with opponents having a combined record of 18-33-1. The Patriots have the hardest remaining schedule, with opponents having a combined record of 32-20. Yikes.

I think Miami could lose all four of those, or could go 3-1. They're not running the table. I have them most likely at 10-6 with the Patriots game up outstanding. The Pats (hopefully) beat Vegas, they'll lose to Buffalo, and I'm assuming they'll lose to Cincy. That leaves them at 8-8 with the Miami game outstanding. I think the Chargers could run the table but I think most likely they lose one of those games, putting them at 10-7 total. Then the Jets....Let's say they go 2-2 to finish 9-8. That would mean that the Miami-NE game is meaningless because both Miami and LAC have 10 wins and NE, in this scenario, could only get to 9 with a win in that Miami game.

So..... I don't think 9-8 gets it done, unless the Chargers lose two and/or Miami gets upset by Green Bay or the Jets, and also loses to Buf and NE. The bottom line is that I think the Pats need to win the next three games to make the playoffs. A very tall order, but not impossible.

First things first. Gotta beat the Raiders. It sure would help if Buffalo beats Miami, the Pats beat the Raiders, the Titans beat the Chargers, and somehow the Lions upset the Jets.
 

luckiestman

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Jul 15, 2005
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somehow the Lions upset the Jets.
Unless it changed, Lions are road favorites. I thought Lions were supposed to be bad on the road and outside but the number didn’t reflect that.

edit: the line has moved in the Jets favor to “even”
 

jmcc5400

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Here's 538's playoff prediction page--you can enter a result for each game and it'll show you a team's playoff odds.

They have the pats at 40% now. A Pats win and some help (Buffalo, Detroit, Tennessee wins) and Pats jump to 72%.
.
Pats wins against LV and Miami, losses to Cinci and Buff leave them at 54%. If you flip the Miami/Cinci results, it's 40%.
 

cshea

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It doesn't impact the Wild Card, but I think the Jags are probably a faint an "in the hunt" mention. They are 5-8 but beat Tennessee last week to close the gap to 2 games and still have the rematich against Tennesee week 18 and have won 3 of 5. They basically both have the same remaining schedule.

Titans: @ LAC, Houston, Dallas, @ Jacksonville
Jags: Dallas, @ NYJ, @ Houston, Tennessee

The Titans are reeling so I can see a scenario where that week 18 game is for all the marbles.

Edit: Both beat Houston, lose to Dallas. Jags beat the Jets, Titans lose to LAC seems like a realistic path.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
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Pats wins against LV and Miami, losses to Cinci and Buff leave them at 54%. If you flip the Miami/Cinci results, it's 40%.
This may be slightly overestimating the Pats though--538 has the Pats as the #9 team in the league.
 

luckiestman

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Jul 15, 2005
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This may be slightly overestimating the Pats though--538 has the Pats as the #9 team in the league.
who I have as clearly better

Eagles
SF
Dallas
Bills
Chiefs
Bengals
….
After this there is a group of teams where the rankings are arguable.

Vikings
Ravens
Dolphins
Pats
Jets
Chargers
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
3,678
Arkansas
1 Buff 11-3
2 kc 11-3
3 ciny 10-4
4 tenn 7-7
5 balt 9-5
6 lac 8-6
7 mia 8-6
8 jax 6-8
9 lv 6-8
10 ne 7-7
11 nyj 7-7
12 cle 6-8
13 pitt 6-8
14 den 4-10
15 indy 4-9-1
16-hou 1-12-1

my 02 cents

afc east Buff likely 14-3 miami shouild get to 10-7 ne'nyj likely out
AFC North can ciny win 2 out last 3 i say yes balt is in a wild card unlees they lose last 3 games
Afc south i now think jax and tenn will be 8-8 going in to week 18
Afc west KC and LAC souild be in

1 Buff/kc
2 kc/buff
3 Ciny/bait
4 tenn/jax
5 bait/ciny
6 LAC/MIA
7 MIA
 

Remagellan

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Pats are out, me thinks.
The one thing comforting me today--with the difference in quality between our remaining opponents (Bengals, Dolphins, at Bills) versus the Chargers (at Colts, Rams, at Broncos), the Pats probably weren't beating out the Chargers for a spot anyway. That would have left Dolphins collapse as a possible path, but I think even if the Pats won yesterday and had tied them at 8-6, it would still be more likely the Dolphins would win two out of their remaining three (Packers, at Pats, Jets) given how well they played in Buffalo on Saturday.
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
3,678
Arkansas
playoff chase w 16
1 Buff 12-3 @ Ciny 50% NE 90 %
2 KC 12-3 DEN 99% @vegas 85 %
3 Ciny 11-4 Buff 50 Balt 50
4 Jax 7-8 @ hou 60 % Tenn 80%
5 Balt 10-5 Pitt 85% @Ciny 50%
6 LAC 8-6 @ INDY 80% Rams 50% @ DEN 75%
7 MIA 8-7 @ NE 50% NYJ 70%
8 NE 7-8 MIA 50% @ BUFF 10% 9 NYJ 7-8 @ Sea 35% @ mia 30%
10 Pitt 7-8 @ bait 15% Cle 70%
1 1 tenn 7-8 Dal 20% @ jax 20%
12 vegas 6-9 SF 15 % KC 15%
13 CLE 6-9 @ WASH 35% @ PITT 30 %
14 indy 4-9-1 LAC 20% @NYG 25% HOU 51%
15 DEN 4-11 @ KC 1% LAC 25%
16 HOU 2-12-1 JAX 40% @ INDY 49%

my guess
1 KC/BUFF/CINY
2 BUFF/KC CINY
3 CINY/BAIT
4JAX/TENN
5 BAIT/CINY
6 LAC/MIA
7 MIA /PITT/NE
 

luckiestman

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Jul 15, 2005
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If Mike White can play and beat Seattle then Jesters/Fish Buf/Pats is setting up as an amazing regular season finale weekend.
 

Rudy's Curve

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If the Chargers win out and the Bengals lose a game, we're almost guaranteed Bengals-Ravens in back-to-back weeks.
 
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BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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The Patriots have still having a shot after the $h!tshow of the past two weeks in fairly incredible.
They're still playing meaningful football after what has appeared to be a disaster of a season. Which, yeah, is amazing.

I assume the Chargers are in. That leaves Mia/NE/NYJ/Pit/Ten(or Jax) fighting for that #7 spot.

7. Mia 8-7 - at NE, vs NYJ
8. NE 7-8 - vs Mia, at Buf
9. NYJ 7-8 - at Sea, at Mia
10. Ten 7-8 - vs Dal, at Jax (good luck with that, Ten)
11. Pit 7-8 - at Bal, vs Cle

I think Pit finishes 8-9 and out. I think Ten finishes 8-9 and out. That leaves the three AFCE teams. And it's wild. Each of those teams could win both their remaining games, one of their remaining games, or none of their remaining games. (Of course that's always the possibility, but I mean that I think they're REAL possibilities.)

It would be nuts if NE and the Jets both win next week, setting up a three-team, 8-8, AFCE round robin in week 17, all playing at the same time. One hope would be if Buffalo has the #1 seed locked up. But that's highly unlikely because they're tied record-wise with KC right now at 12-3 (ahead on H2H tiebreaker), and next week KC gets to play that crapshow that is Denver, while Buffalo plays at Cincinnati. That means that Buffalo almost certainly will need the win in the last game of the year, so NE won't get the break of getting a Bills team that's resting Josh Allen. About a 2% chance the Pats win that game.

So ideally.....

Ten loses both games, putting them at 7-10, and Pit loses at Baltimore putting them at 8-9 if they beat Cleveland. And the Jets hopefully lose at Seattle (which is possible for sure) and then knocks off Miami. That would put them at 8-9. Then if the Pats can beat Miami and lose to Buffalo, they'd also be 8-9, but it would, I believe, give them the tiebreaker over Miami and the Jets, because the Pats were 2-0 against the Jets H2H, and they'd be 3-3 in the division, compared to 2-4 for Miami and 3-3 for the Jets (but the Pats again have that H2H over the Jets).

I think this is, to be perfectly honest, NE's best shot at making the playoffs. And I don't think it's crazy at all.
 

Gash Prex

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Honestly I'm just happy the pats are playing "meaningful" football after this dumpster of a season. I think its unlikely they beat both Miami and Buffalo - but given the way the season has gone I could see them losing in excruciating fashion against the Buffalo in the last 2 min with a chance to make the playoffs.
 

axx

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Honestly I'm just happy the pats are playing "meaningful" football after this dumpster of a season. I think its unlikely they beat both Miami and Buffalo - but given the way the season has gone I could see them losing in excruciating fashion against the Buffalo in the last 2 min with a chance to make the playoffs.
That's what the extra playoff spot will do for you. Vegas is even still alive at this point and it wasn't even that difficult to get the Playoff Machine to get them in... course they would have to beat SF and KC just to start.
 

dynomite

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Honestly I'm just happy the pats are playing "meaningful" football after this dumpster of a season. I think its unlikely they beat both Miami and Buffalo - but given the way the season has gone I could see them losing in excruciating fashion against the Buffalo in the last 2 min with a chance to make the playoffs.
I agree with this.

I have no sense of the relative draft prospects available at, say, 11th-14th overall (if they miss the playoffs, right?) vs 19th-21st (if they make them and lose, right?) — a question that vague isn’t even worth @SMU_Sox time — but meaningful football is fun and beating Miami is always an occasion for celebration.
 

Rudy's Curve

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So ideally.....

Ten loses both games, putting them at 7-10, and Pit loses at Baltimore putting them at 8-9 if they beat Cleveland. And the Jets hopefully lose at Seattle (which is possible for sure) and then knocks off Miami. That would put them at 8-9. Then if the Pats can beat Miami and lose to Buffalo, they'd also be 8-9, but it would, I believe, give them the tiebreaker over Miami and the Jets, because the Pats were 2-0 against the Jets H2H, and they'd be 3-3 in the division, compared to 2-4 for Miami and 3-3 for the Jets (but the Pats again have that H2H over the Jets).

I think this is, to be perfectly honest, NE's best shot at making the playoffs. And I don't think it's crazy at all.
I just ran this and it checks out, assuming it's not also affected by strength of victory tiebreakers since I only inputted results for the last spot contenders. However, it also requires the Raiders to lose a game - that's very likely since they play SF and KC, but they are both at home and they've been in almost every game (only one loss by 8+) and should've beaten the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Stranger things have happened, I suppose.
 

cshea

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I think the biggest problem in that scenario is the Jets losing at Seattle then going to Miami and winning. The Jets have to win both games to have a shot, a loss this week ends their chances. Either NE is getting to 8 this week and the Jets lose the tiebreakers or Miami gets to 9 and thus the Jets can't catch them. Feels like a tough spot to have your playoff chances end in Seattle, fly back to New York, fly to Miami and beat a desperate team needing a win.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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I think the biggest problem in that scenario is the Jets losing at Seattle then going to Miami and winning. The Jets have to win both games to have a shot, a loss this week ends their chances. Either NE is getting to 8 this week and the Jets lose the tiebreakers or Miami gets to 9 and thus the Jets can't catch them. Feels like a tough spot to have your playoff chances end in Seattle, fly back to New York, fly to Miami and beat a desperate team needing a win.
Yes but White and other players are playing for their futures, plus they may get a chance to play spoiler against a hated division rival. Teams that are out of the playoffs find strange ways to win games late in the season.
 

Rudy's Curve

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I think the biggest problem in that scenario is the Jets losing at Seattle then going to Miami and winning. The Jets have to win both games to have a shot, a loss this week ends their chances. Either NE is getting to 8 this week and the Jets lose the tiebreakers or Miami gets to 9 and thus the Jets can't catch them. Feels like a tough spot to have your playoff chances end in Seattle, fly back to New York, fly to Miami and beat a desperate team needing a win.
The Jets knocked the Dolphins out of the playoff race in Miami to end 2013 - I'm not sure if the Dolphins were win and in, but a loss obviously eliminated them. Granted, there wasn't the aspect of being eliminated across the country the week prior, but desperation works both ways (and can create pressure for the team needing to win) especially when it's a division rival.
 

cshea

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The Jets knocked the Dolphins out of the playoff race in Miami to end 2013 - I'm not sure if the Dolphins were win and in, but a loss obviously eliminated them. Granted, there wasn't the aspect of being eliminated across the country the week prior, but desperation works both ways (and can create pressure for the team needing to win) especially when it's a division rival.
Yeah, never count out a week 18 team with nothing to lose, but just feels like the deck is stacked against the Jets in that game. Plus the murky Miami QB situation may benefit NE if they need it.

Also it probably matters to fans a lot more than it does to coaches/players, but in this scenario the Jets mailing it in also screws a divisional opponent, one I bet the majority of non-coaches/players would prefer to screw over.
 

luckiestman

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The Jets will play hard regardless, don’t worry. These guys have a lot of pride. That doesn’t mean they will win. But they aren’t going to phone it in.
 

E5 Yaz

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Wins this weekend by the Patriots, Jets, Jaguars, Titans and Steelers would put all of them, and the Dolphins, at 8-8. I want it to happen just so I can see the standings the next day.