AFC Playoff Positioning

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
2,541
2 games to go...

Pats: 11-3 (AFC East Champs)
Bills: 8-6

Chiefs: 8-6
Chargers: 7-7

Steelers: 11-3 (AFC North Champs)
Ravens: 8-6

Jaguars: 10-4
Titans: 8-6

(Dolphins/Raiders left out of the analysis intentionally, too long of a shot)

Some simple truths:
---------------------------
1. Pats win out, they get home field throughout.
2. Chiefs clinch AFC West with another win (vs Dolphins, @Broncos)
3. Jags clinch AFC South with another win (@49ers, @Titans)

For WC teams...
Baltimore has best situation, cake schedule (IND/CIN), and tiebreakers on their side. Win one and they are likely in, and they should win both. I am willing to pencil them in as top WC.

Titans control their destiny but have a tough schedule (vs Rams, vs Jags). I think they lose both, but they are at least at home.
Buffalo needs to win out likely since tiebreakers aren't favorable to them
Chargers need to win out but schedule is favorable (@NYJ, vs Oak)

Give me Chargers for #6 playoff seed at moment

If we assume the Chiefs and Jags can each win one more, the most likely outcome is:

1. Pats (bye)
2. Steelers (bye)
3. Jags
4. Chiefs
5. Ravens
6. Chargers
 

Ale Xander

Lacks black ink
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
38,036
Chargers at home v. Raiders isn't favorable at all. I think Raiders take that one. They're the more talented team.

Jags still have a chance to get #1 seed if Pats and Steelers each lose to create 3 way tie, via common opponent tiebreaker.
 

Rudy's Curve

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2006
1,796
Chargers at home v. Raiders isn't favorable at all. I think Raiders take that one. They're the more talented team.
The Raiders might win because shit happens and you’ll be able to count the Charger fans on one hand but on what planet are they the more talented team?
 

Seels

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
3,756
NH
The 4-6 seeds regardless of who they are, are as bad as I've ever seen in a conference. The Chargers are an okay team that has no right leading a division, the Chiefs have been exposes for the last two months, and the Ravens best win of the year is either @ Oakland or v the Lions.

I think this sets up for a pretty easy divisional for the Pats and a pretty difficult one for whoever gets the #2 between Pitt and Jax.

The NFC is scary though. The top 4 seeds in the NFC are all incredible.
 

Oppo

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2009
1,576
Chargers at home v. Raiders isn't favorable at all. I think Raiders take that one. They're the more talented team.

Jags still have a chance to get #1 seed if Pats and Steelers each lose to create 3 way tie, via common opponent tiebreaker.
Raiders have shown to be wildly overrated this year as the sexy super bowl pick.
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
2,541
I have watched a few Raiders games and can assure you that they suck