AFC Playoff race

[j-man]

1 KC 100% IN
2 Hou 95% in
3 Buff 95 % in
4 Balt/pitt 100% in 1 of these 2 will win the north
5 Balt pitt loser 100% will likey get the 5th
6/7 Den/lac If Den wins this upcoming week they have basiccy a 2 game lead for number 6 and tiebeark over the main WC teams 70% in goes up to 90% with a win sunday 60% with a loss
7 LAC reason they are here even if they lose sunday last 2 games @ ne @ vegas means couild be as bad as 8-7 and still be in fine shape 65% in

the rest
8 nyj 2-3 2-1 in the afc can make a run but now needs DEN/LAC at 9 wins or less 50%
9 indy 2-3 but they look like at best 8-9 9-8 40%
10 ciny 1-4 as long as they win next sunday if denver goes 9-8 or worse as long as ciny beats den in week 17 they have a shot 35%

see ya next year
12 vegas 2-3 Pitt kc SF next 3 weeks not looking great 5%
13 tenn 1-3 cant see no better than 5 wins 1%
14 mia 2-3 unless tua comes back and they win 6 7 in a row 10% at best 1% right now
15 cle 1-4 basiccy what the broncos were suppored to be 0%
16 NE 1-4 4 wins at best 0%

i fogot Jax 1-4 1% chance 13th

 

[j-man]

thinking about this more i can see the jets 6-7 and then winning 4 in a row

 

[j-man]

1 KC best case 16-1 worse case 13-4

2 Hou best case 13-4 worse case 11-6
3 Balt best case 12-5 worse case 11-6
4 Buff best case 11-6 worse case 10-7
5 pitt best case 11-6 worse case 9-8
6 lac best case 10-7 worse case 9-8
7 indy best case 10-7 worse case 8-9
8 den best case 9-8 worse case 8-9
9 nyj best case 9-8 worse case 7-10

10 Ciny best case 10-7 worse case 8-9
11 mia best case 7-10 worse case 5-12
12 lv best case 6-11 worse case 5-12
13 tenn best case 5-12 worse case 4-13

14 jax best case 5-12 worse case 4-13
15 ne best case 4-13 worse case 2-15
16 cle best case 3-14 worse case 2-15

 

[Ale Xander]

NYJ worst case is fewer than 7 wins imho

 

[j-man]

NYJ worst case is fewer than 7 wins imho

i think they will get hot when there is nothing to play for

 

[Ale Xander]

i think they will get hot when there is nothing to play for

Well it looks like there will be a lot of games they will have nothing to play for so maybe you’re right

 

[Justthetippett]

Well it looks like there will be a lot of games they will have nothing to play for so maybe you’re right

I'm going to be very surprised if Rodgers plays the whole season. He can't elude the rush in any way resembling his younger self, yet he's still going to try to extend and make plays. He's already had a few close calls. Not hoping for any injuries as the Jets drama adds something to the season but it seems inevitable.

 

[j-man]

the bengals worry me it looks like the week 17 den @ ciny game will deside the 7 seed

 

[j-man]

assuming BAL PITT HOU BUFF KC are in

this leaves 4 teams for 2 spots
LAC - wouild had a lock on 6 with a W last night should win the next 3 NO CLE TENN then 6 tough games in a row and then 2 more wins to finish it off
11-6 at best 9-8 at worst
INDY their next 5 games are very diff couild go 1-4 2-3 but on the filp side should be 4-1 in the last 5 weeks
10-7 at best 9-8 at worst
Den will be 5-5 with 7 games left ATL is a swing game then Vegas and cle are likely wins then starting after denver bye INDY @ LAC @ CINY KC denver should be 8-5 or 7-6 going in to those 4 games
Best case 10-7 worst case 8-9
Ciny Philly is a swing game Vegas is a likely win @ balt is a likely loss @ LAC Swing game pitt swing game @ Dal swing game @ TENN WIN Den swing @ pitt L unless they have nothing to play for
that L to NE will likely cost u the playoffs Best case 9-8 worse case 8-9

i expect LAC to get the 6 seed anyway because of 5 likely wins as long as they beat 2 of Ciny den atl tb balt and they can get away with only 1 win if it's denver and denver is 9-8

7 seed looks to be between indy and den
indy will be 6-6 or 5-7 dec 1st but look at their sch starting dec 1st
@ ne W
2 Weeks to prepare for @ denver tossup
Tenn W
@ NYG W
JAX W

 

[luckiestman]

assuming BAL PITT HOU BUFF KC are in

this leaves 4 teams for 2 spots
LAC - wouild had a lock on 6 with a W last night should win the next 3 NO CLE TENN then 6 tough games in a row and then 2 more wins to finish it off
11-6 at best 9-8 at worst
INDY their next 5 games are very diff couild go 1-4 2-3 but on the filp side should be 4-1 in the last 5 weeks
10-7 at best 9-8 at worst
Den will be 5-5 with 7 games left ATL is a swing game then Vegas and cle are likely wins then starting after denver bye INDY @ LAC @ CINY KC denver should be 8-5 or 7-6 going in to those 4 games
Best case 10-7 worst case 8-9
Ciny Philly is a swing game Vegas is a likely win @ balt is a likely loss @ LAC Swing game pitt swing game @ Dal swing game @ TENN WIN Den swing @ pitt L unless they have nothing to play for
that L to NE will likely cost u the playoffs Best case 9-8 worse case 8-9

i expect LAC to get the 6 seed anyway because of 5 likely wins as long as they beat 2 of Ciny den atl tb balt and they can get away with only 1 win if it's denver and denver is 9-8

7 seed looks to be between indy and den
indy will be 6-6 or 5-7 dec 1st but look at their sch starting dec 1st
@ ne W
2 Weeks to prepare for @ denver tossup
Tenn W
@ NYG W
JAX W

I have been torturing myself looking at this too.

Steelers schedule gets really tough whereas Ravens could get the 1 seed if KC slips
Houston is a lock, as are the Chiefs and Buffalo

LOCK UP: RAVENS, CHIEFS, BILL, TEXANS

Pitt is likely in but them only getting to 8 or 9 is in play
Cincy getting to 10 is tough but 9 is in play.
Chargers losing last night is a big problem for them, also looking like 8 or 9 wins
Broncos it looks like 8 or 9 to me unless Nix gets much better
If Colts get to 9 their guy should be Coach of the Year
My team has an easy schedule but opponents probably looking at us as an easy game. I think we are also in trouble with tiebreakers losing to Denver and Pitt

 

[j-man]

I have been torturing myself looking at this too.

Steelers schedule gets really tough whereas Ravens could get the 1 seed if KC slips
Houston is a lock, as are the Chiefs and Buffalo

LOCK UP: RAVENS, CHIEFS, BILL, TEXANS

Pitt is likely in but them only getting to 8 or 9 is in play
Cincy getting to 10 is tough but 9 is in play.
Chargers losing last night is a big problem for them, also looking like 8 or 9 wins
Broncos it looks like 8 or 9 to me unless Nix gets much better
If Colts get to 9 their guy should be Coach of the Year
My team has an easy schedule but opponents probably looking at us as an easy game. I think we are also in trouble with tiebreakers losing to Denver and Pitt

beat the texans and u guys are right back in it but
let say u lose to HOU and BUFF other than that can u win out because 9-8 for u means no playoffs

 

[j-man]

update
1-5 is clear
6 is 80% lac

1 KC/BUF
2 BUF/HOU/KC
3 HOU/PITT/BALT/ BUFF
4 PITT/BALT
5 BALT/PITT /LAC
6 LAC/DEN
7 ? DEN/INDY

LAC 4-3 Likely wins over CLE TENN CINY PATS Vegas tossups aga ATL TB DEN balt L aga KC
Cant see no worse than 10-7

7 spot is between 3 teams
DEN
INDY
CINY and ciny is a long shot because of playing Pitt 2x balt dal lac den as best its 3 L'S

Here is Denver and Indy nexy 9 games
Den @ Balt L @ KC L ATL TUP @ VEGAS W Cle W Indy TUP @ LAC L @ CINY W KC is up to is kc 16-0 they fear den more than indy will kc use week 18 as a bye Denver shouild be 10-7 9-8 8-6 3 tossups
Indy @ MINN TUP BUFF L @ NYJ W DET L @ NE W @ DEN TUP TENN W @ NYG W JAX W indy will also be 10-7 9-8 9-6 2 tossups
that colts denver week 15 is a play in game unlees ciny wins 6 of their next 7 games

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Good stuff, @j-man

Appreciate the stuff you put up around here

 

[j-man]

Good stuff, @j-man

Appreciate the stuff you put up around here

thanks for reading

 

[j-man]

battle for 1 seed KC/BUFF/AFCNORTH Winner
2 Buff/balt/hou
3 Balt/hou/buff /pitt
4 hou/pitt balt
5 Pitt/balt
6 LAC / PITT

1 kc 100% 2 buff 100% 3 Balt/pitt 100% in 4 HOU 95% IN 5 PITT/BALT/LAC 99% IN 6 LAC/PITT 90% IN

6 spots are spoke for

and there are 4 teams for 1 spot
1 den 5-4 @ KC L ATL tossup @ Vegas W CLE W INDY SWING @ LAC L @ CINY SWING KC will explain ina min ok with kc the likely 1 seed they will get to choose the 7 seed and indy is their best path for kc but if its between den-ciny denver should win kc does not want ciny as a 7 seed 7-6- 4 toss ups likely 9-8 denver afc conf rec 2-3 60% as the 7 seed
2 indy 4-5 BUFF L @ NYJ Tossup DET L @ NE W @ DEN TOSSUP TENN W @ NYG TOSSUP JAX W also likely 9-8 7-7 3 tossups indy afc conf rec 3-3 30%
3 ciny 4-6 @ LAC Tossup Pitt L @ DAL W @ TENN W CLE W DEN Tossup @ pitt tossup my guess 8-9 best case is 9-8 7-7 3 tossups 10%

4 nyj 3-6 @ ZONA Toss up INDY Toss up sea W @ MIA L @ JAX W Rams L @ BUF L MIA W 6-9 2 Tossups

 

[j-man]

update
1 KC/BUFF
2 BUFF/KC
3 AFC North champ or buff
4 Hou or afc north champ
5 AFC North runner up
6 LAC

7 DEN/CINY/INDY
DEN SCH ATL Swing @ Vegas W CLE W INDY W @ LAC L @ CINY SWING KC SWING 8-6 3 TOSSUPS
CINY @ LAC SWING Pitt L @ DAL W @ TENN W CLE W DEN SWING @ PITT L 7-8 2 TOSSUPS
INDY @ NYJ W DET L @ NE W @ DEN L TENN W @ NYG SWING JAX W 8-8 1 TOSSUPS