AFC Playoff race

[j-man]

1 KC 100% IN
2 Hou 95% in
3 Buff 95 % in
4 Balt/pitt 100% in 1 of these 2 will win the north
5 Balt pitt loser 100% will likey get the 5th
6/7 Den/lac If Den wins this upcoming week they have basiccy a 2 game lead for number 6 and tiebeark over the main WC teams 70% in goes up to 90% with a win sunday 60% with a loss
7 LAC reason they are here even if they lose sunday last 2 games @ ne @ vegas means couild be as bad as 8-7 and still be in fine shape 65% in

the rest
8 nyj 2-3 2-1 in the afc can make a run but now needs DEN/LAC at 9 wins or less 50%
9 indy 2-3 but they look like at best 8-9 9-8 40%
10 ciny 1-4 as long as they win next sunday if denver goes 9-8 or worse as long as ciny beats den in week 17 they have a shot 35%

see ya next year
12 vegas 2-3 Pitt kc SF next 3 weeks not looking great 5%
13 tenn 1-3 cant see no better than 5 wins 1%
14 mia 2-3 unless tua comes back and they win 6 7 in a row 10% at best 1% right now
15 cle 1-4 basiccy what the broncos were suppored to be 0%
16 NE 1-4 4 wins at best 0%

i fogot Jax 1-4 1% chance 13th

 

[j-man]

thinking about this more i can see the jets 6-7 and then winning 4 in a row

 

[j-man]

1 KC best case 16-1 worse case 13-4

2 Hou best case 13-4 worse case 11-6
3 Balt best case 12-5 worse case 11-6
4 Buff best case 11-6 worse case 10-7
5 pitt best case 11-6 worse case 9-8
6 lac best case 10-7 worse case 9-8
7 indy best case 10-7 worse case 8-9
8 den best case 9-8 worse case 8-9
9 nyj best case 9-8 worse case 7-10

10 Ciny best case 10-7 worse case 8-9
11 mia best case 7-10 worse case 5-12
12 lv best case 6-11 worse case 5-12
13 tenn best case 5-12 worse case 4-13

14 jax best case 5-12 worse case 4-13
15 ne best case 4-13 worse case 2-15
16 cle best case 3-14 worse case 2-15

 

[Ale Xander]

NYJ worst case is fewer than 7 wins imho

 

[j-man]

NYJ worst case is fewer than 7 wins imho

i think they will get hot when there is nothing to play for

 

[Ale Xander]

i think they will get hot when there is nothing to play for

Well it looks like there will be a lot of games they will have nothing to play for so maybe you’re right

 

[Justthetippett]

Well it looks like there will be a lot of games they will have nothing to play for so maybe you’re right

I'm going to be very surprised if Rodgers plays the whole season. He can't elude the rush in any way resembling his younger self, yet he's still going to try to extend and make plays. He's already had a few close calls. Not hoping for any injuries as the Jets drama adds something to the season but it seems inevitable.

 

[j-man]

the bengals worry me it looks like the week 17 den @ ciny game will deside the 7 seed

 

[j-man]

assuming BAL PITT HOU BUFF KC are in

this leaves 4 teams for 2 spots
LAC - wouild had a lock on 6 with a W last night should win the next 3 NO CLE TENN then 6 tough games in a row and then 2 more wins to finish it off
11-6 at best 9-8 at worst
INDY their next 5 games are very diff couild go 1-4 2-3 but on the filp side should be 4-1 in the last 5 weeks
10-7 at best 9-8 at worst
Den will be 5-5 with 7 games left ATL is a swing game then Vegas and cle are likely wins then starting after denver bye INDY @ LAC @ CINY KC denver should be 8-5 or 7-6 going in to those 4 games
Best case 10-7 worst case 8-9
Ciny Philly is a swing game Vegas is a likely win @ balt is a likely loss @ LAC Swing game pitt swing game @ Dal swing game @ TENN WIN Den swing @ pitt L unless they have nothing to play for
that L to NE will likely cost u the playoffs Best case 9-8 worse case 8-9

i expect LAC to get the 6 seed anyway because of 5 likely wins as long as they beat 2 of Ciny den atl tb balt and they can get away with only 1 win if it's denver and denver is 9-8

7 seed looks to be between indy and den
indy will be 6-6 or 5-7 dec 1st but look at their sch starting dec 1st
@ ne W
2 Weeks to prepare for @ denver tossup
Tenn W
@ NYG W
JAX W

 

[luckiestman]

assuming BAL PITT HOU BUFF KC are in

this leaves 4 teams for 2 spots
LAC - wouild had a lock on 6 with a W last night should win the next 3 NO CLE TENN then 6 tough games in a row and then 2 more wins to finish it off
11-6 at best 9-8 at worst
INDY their next 5 games are very diff couild go 1-4 2-3 but on the filp side should be 4-1 in the last 5 weeks
10-7 at best 9-8 at worst
Den will be 5-5 with 7 games left ATL is a swing game then Vegas and cle are likely wins then starting after denver bye INDY @ LAC @ CINY KC denver should be 8-5 or 7-6 going in to those 4 games
Best case 10-7 worst case 8-9
Ciny Philly is a swing game Vegas is a likely win @ balt is a likely loss @ LAC Swing game pitt swing game @ Dal swing game @ TENN WIN Den swing @ pitt L unless they have nothing to play for
that L to NE will likely cost u the playoffs Best case 9-8 worse case 8-9

i expect LAC to get the 6 seed anyway because of 5 likely wins as long as they beat 2 of Ciny den atl tb balt and they can get away with only 1 win if it's denver and denver is 9-8

7 seed looks to be between indy and den
indy will be 6-6 or 5-7 dec 1st but look at their sch starting dec 1st
@ ne W
2 Weeks to prepare for @ denver tossup
Tenn W
@ NYG W
JAX W

I have been torturing myself looking at this too.

Steelers schedule gets really tough whereas Ravens could get the 1 seed if KC slips
Houston is a lock, as are the Chiefs and Buffalo

LOCK UP: RAVENS, CHIEFS, BILL, TEXANS

Pitt is likely in but them only getting to 8 or 9 is in play
Cincy getting to 10 is tough but 9 is in play.
Chargers losing last night is a big problem for them, also looking like 8 or 9 wins
Broncos it looks like 8 or 9 to me unless Nix gets much better
If Colts get to 9 their guy should be Coach of the Year
My team has an easy schedule but opponents probably looking at us as an easy game. I think we are also in trouble with tiebreakers losing to Denver and Pitt

 

[j-man]

I have been torturing myself looking at this too.

Steelers schedule gets really tough whereas Ravens could get the 1 seed if KC slips
Houston is a lock, as are the Chiefs and Buffalo

LOCK UP: RAVENS, CHIEFS, BILL, TEXANS

Pitt is likely in but them only getting to 8 or 9 is in play
Cincy getting to 10 is tough but 9 is in play.
Chargers losing last night is a big problem for them, also looking like 8 or 9 wins
Broncos it looks like 8 or 9 to me unless Nix gets much better
If Colts get to 9 their guy should be Coach of the Year
My team has an easy schedule but opponents probably looking at us as an easy game. I think we are also in trouble with tiebreakers losing to Denver and Pitt

beat the texans and u guys are right back in it but
let say u lose to HOU and BUFF other than that can u win out because 9-8 for u means no playoffs

 

[j-man]

update
1-5 is clear
6 is 80% lac

1 KC/BUF
2 BUF/HOU/KC
3 HOU/PITT/BALT/ BUFF
4 PITT/BALT
5 BALT/PITT /LAC
6 LAC/DEN
7 ? DEN/INDY

LAC 4-3 Likely wins over CLE TENN CINY PATS Vegas tossups aga ATL TB DEN balt L aga KC
Cant see no worse than 10-7

7 spot is between 3 teams
DEN
INDY
CINY and ciny is a long shot because of playing Pitt 2x balt dal lac den as best its 3 L'S

Here is Denver and Indy nexy 9 games
Den @ Balt L @ KC L ATL TUP @ VEGAS W Cle W Indy TUP @ LAC L @ CINY W KC is up to is kc 16-0 they fear den more than indy will kc use week 18 as a bye Denver shouild be 10-7 9-8 8-6 3 tossups
Indy @ MINN TUP BUFF L @ NYJ W DET L @ NE W @ DEN TUP TENN W @ NYG W JAX W indy will also be 10-7 9-8 9-6 2 tossups
that colts denver week 15 is a play in game unlees ciny wins 6 of their next 7 games

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Good stuff, @j-man

Appreciate the stuff you put up around here

 

[j-man]

Good stuff, @j-man

Appreciate the stuff you put up around here

thanks for reading

 

[j-man]

battle for 1 seed KC/BUFF/AFCNORTH Winner
2 Buff/balt/hou
3 Balt/hou/buff /pitt
4 hou/pitt balt
5 Pitt/balt
6 LAC / PITT

1 kc 100% 2 buff 100% 3 Balt/pitt 100% in 4 HOU 95% IN 5 PITT/BALT/LAC 99% IN 6 LAC/PITT 90% IN

6 spots are spoke for

and there are 4 teams for 1 spot
1 den 5-4 @ KC L ATL tossup @ Vegas W CLE W INDY SWING @ LAC L @ CINY SWING KC will explain ina min ok with kc the likely 1 seed they will get to choose the 7 seed and indy is their best path for kc but if its between den-ciny denver should win kc does not want ciny as a 7 seed 7-6- 4 toss ups likely 9-8 denver afc conf rec 2-3 60% as the 7 seed
2 indy 4-5 BUFF L @ NYJ Tossup DET L @ NE W @ DEN TOSSUP TENN W @ NYG TOSSUP JAX W also likely 9-8 7-7 3 tossups indy afc conf rec 3-3 30%
3 ciny 4-6 @ LAC Tossup Pitt L @ DAL W @ TENN W CLE W DEN Tossup @ pitt tossup my guess 8-9 best case is 9-8 7-7 3 tossups 10%

4 nyj 3-6 @ ZONA Toss up INDY Toss up sea W @ MIA L @ JAX W Rams L @ BUF L MIA W 6-9 2 Tossups

 

[j-man]

update
1 KC/BUFF
2 BUFF/KC
3 AFC North champ or buff
4 Hou or afc north champ
5 AFC North runner up
6 LAC

7 DEN/CINY/INDY
DEN SCH ATL Swing @ Vegas W CLE W INDY W @ LAC L @ CINY SWING KC SWING 8-6 3 TOSSUPS
CINY @ LAC SWING Pitt L @ DAL W @ TENN W CLE W DEN SWING @ PITT L 7-8 2 TOSSUPS
INDY @ NYJ W DET L @ NE W @ DEN L TENN W @ NYG SWING JAX W 8-8 1 TOSSUPS

 

[j-man]

time for a update
1 KC 13-1 HOU @ PITT @ DEN they will lose one coulis lose two my gueiss is 15-2
2 BUFF 11-3 NE NYJ @ NE 14-3
3 PITT 10-4 @ BALT KC CINY IF WATT is out they will lose at least twice 11-6
4 hou 9-5 @ kc balt @ tenn 10-7 unless mahomes is out
5 balt if balt wins next week they win the north 12-5 PITT @ HOU CLE 12-5
6 DEN 9-5 @ LAC @ CINY KC if they win 1 they are in sirtain if iffy next thur only way they miss is if ciny wins out den loses out 10-7
7 LAC 8-6 DEN @ NE @ LV likely 11-6 unlees they get in a shootout with den 11-6
8 ciny 6-8 CLE DEN @ PITT They will beat cle but i dont think they beat both den and pitt 8-9
9 mia 6-8 SF @CLE @ NYJ 8-9
1 KC/BUFF
2 BUFF/KC
3 BALT/PITT/HOU
4 HOU/PITT/BALT
5 PITT/BALT
6 LAC/DEN
7DEN/LAC/CINY/MIA

 

[Oil Can Dan]

So if Cincy wins out and Den loses to KC then Cincy is in? That’s a little bit crazy.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

So if Cincy wins out and Den loses to KC then Cincy is in? That’s a little bit crazy.

They also need a loss by Miami and Indy.

 

[BaseballJones]

They also need a loss by Miami and Indy.

Miami has vs SF, at Cle, and at NYJ. I don't see them winning all three, though they could since the most difficult of the three is this week at home vs. a banged up SF squad.

Indy has vs Ten, at NYG, vs Jax. Indy isn't very good but they probably should win all those games.

But I'm totally rooting for Cincy to run the table and sneak in as the #7 seed.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Miami has vs SF, at Cle, and at NYJ. I don't see them winning all three, though they could since the most difficult of the three is this week at home vs. a banged up SF squad.

Indy has vs Ten, at NYG, vs Jax. Indy isn't very good but they probably should win all those games.

But I'm totally rooting for Cincy to run the table and sneak in as the #7 seed.

The last two games for Miami are also on the road and, well, we know how they play in the cold - if they run the table then god bless them. The Colts schedule looks ostensibly easy, but the two home games are division games and they have to go on the road in the cold. Obviously the Giants are awful, but we saw the Colts struggle in the cold with the Pats so I don't think it's a slam dunk by any means. They can also lose to anyone if Richardson is missing throws left and right, which is entirely possible. The biggest obstacle for the Bengals (besides winning out, as that'll be a very tough game in Pittsburgh if the Steelers have something to play for) is the Chiefs winning the next two games and then laying down at Mile High with the 1-seed wrapped up.

 

[BaseballJones]

The last two games for Miami are also on the road and, well, we know how they play in the cold - if they run the table then god bless them. The Colts schedule looks ostensibly easy, but the two home games are division games and they have to go on the road in the cold to New York. Obviously the Giants are awful, but we saw the Colts struggle in the cold with the Pats so I don't think it's a slam dunk by any means. They can also lose to anyone if Richardson is missing throws left and right, which is entirely possible. The biggest obstacle for the Bengals (besides winning out, as that'll be a very tough game in Pittsburgh if the Steelers have something to play for) is the Chiefs winning the next two games and then laying down at Mile High with the 1-seed wrapped up.

Good point about Denver's schedule. Obviously Cincy can beat them head to head next week but you're right - if KC has the #1 seed wrapped up, they could sit Mahomes, especially as he's a little banged up. But KC has two difficult games this and next week (vs Hou and at Pit). They'll need to finish a game ahead of Buffalo, though, since the Bills have the H2H over KC. If KC goes 1-1 these next two weeks with a banged up Mahomes, and Buffalo goes 2-0 (which they should, given that they play the Pats and Jets), they'd go into week 17 with KC at 14-2 and Buf at 13-3, but with KC playing Denver and Buffalo playing New England. Should be an easy win for the Bills, which means KC would really need to win that game badly. That helps Cincy's prospects.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Interesting. Thanks for the explanation.
I think Indy sneaks in. They crush bad teams but lose vs good teams. KC is going to need to beat Denver in week 18 and if they do I bet Indy makes it.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Interesting. Thanks for the explanation.
I think Indy sneaks in. They crush bad teams but lose vs good teams. KC is going to need to beat Denver in week 18 and if they do I bet Indy makes it.

It's one of those situations where Indy needs Cincy to win to create a three-way tiebreaker but Cincy needs Indy to lose. If they all finish 9-8, Cincy would have beaten Denver who beat Indy but the Colts would make it by conference record since no team swept (or got swept by) the others.

 

[j-man]

barring inj or a lot of turnovers
other than the 1 seed thanks to thur night the AFC 1st round is mostly set
5 pitt vs 4 hou
6 lac vs 3 balt
now the networks would want ciny/buff but unless indy drops a game this week they are not losing to NYG and Jax
miami has very little shot
with all the late tv games denver is getting its a denver lean ciny only hope is if riley moss cannot go but if r moss can go then denver is the rare team that can cover chase and higgens
ciny only hope aga denver is payton does not run the ball