AFC Wild Card (NOW VOTING)

Who Gets the Wild Cards (Vote for Two Only)?

  • Patriots

    Votes: 15 78.9%
  • Dolphins

    Votes: 2 10.5%
  • Browns

    Votes: 12 63.2%
  • Ravens

    Votes: 6 31.6%
  • Colts

    Votes: 1 5.3%
  • Texans

    Votes: 4 21.1%
  • Chargers

    Votes: 2 10.5%
  • Raiders

    Votes: 1 5.3%

  • Total voters
    19

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
OK, lets move this thing forward with a quick discussion and vote of the Wild Card teams.  The following are the divisional results for the AFC.
 
East - Bills win, Jets finish last
North - Bengals win, Steelers finish last by a hair
South - Jaguars win, Turtlenecks finish last
West - Broncos win, Chiefs finish last
 
That leaves the following teams in the mix for Wild Card spots.  I'm putting the percentage of votes each team received for 1st in their respective divisions in parentheses, but take that with a grain of salt.  Obviously the presence of a really strong division winner will tend to reduce that number, irrespective of team quality, so the number may say more about the rest of the division than the team itself.
 
Patriots (39%)
Dolpins (0%)
Browns (29%)
Ravens (5%)
Colts (0%)
Texans (0%)
Chargers (0%)
Raiders (0%)
 
If you want to make a pitch for your team getting a WC spot, go for it.  Or if you just want to discuss which teams should qualify.  Like the NFL, there'll be two WCs from each conference and I'll throw a poll up in a couple days.
 

Super Nomario

Member
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Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Reposted from the AFC North thread, with some addendums:
  • PFF underrates Kaepernick, who finished 7th in Y/A, 10th in QB rating, 3rd in QBR, 7th in WPA, and 6th in EPA. He finished 13th in B/R's recent NFL1000 scouting-based study. PFF's play-by-play method rewards consistency and penalizes guys like Kaepernick who are a little more boom-or-bust.
  • PFF underrates TE blocking in general. Only 22 of 135 TEs rated above 0.0 in run blocking, while 94 rated below. That means the best way for a TE to get a decent run block grade is to be such a bad run blocker he never plays in-line. Both my TE rated -10 or worse in run blocking; that number has to be taken with an enormous grain of salt.
  • Quinton Coples is a 6'5" 290-lber who played a lot of OLB in the Jets' defense thanks to the arrival of Sheldon Richardson. I'd have him in his more natural 5-technique role. Bruce Irvin, who was asked to play in space a lot due to Seattle's glut of pass-rushing riches, would get to pin his ears back and rush a lot more (he only had 112 pass-rushing snaps but graded out as the 4th-best pass-rushing 4-3 OLB).
  • I'm running a 3-4 on early downs with Coples - Ngata - Cofield (Ngata and Cofield can both play end or NT) and Harrison - Harris - Tulloch - Irvin behind. On passing downs, Harrison and one of Ngata / Cofield comes off, Coples kicks inside, and Irvin / Mercilus rush from the edges. I can keep my team fresh and put Mercilus a more limited role that plays to his strengths.
  • Greg Cosell on Stephon Gilmore: "I believe that Stephon Gilmore is on his way to being a top-three NFL cornerback.” On his way isn't there, but I think Gilmore's better than his PFF grade (he allowed just a 72.7 passer rating on throws his way, despite often matching up against teams' #1 WRs).
  • Even PFF knows they're underrating Kenny Vaccaro - they named him to their All-Rookie and all-NFC South team and have him as a light green / bordering on dark green in their Saints projected lineup. B/R's NFL 1000 ranked him as the 5th-best safety in the NFL.
  • While Crabtree was hurt much of the year and Nicks had struggles, my WR corps had depth, with Jacoby Jones and Avant legit 2/3 options.
No excuses for my 2 worst players - Konz and Cox really were that bad, getting pushed to the bench despite being a 2nd-round pick the year before (in Konz' case) and signing a pretty big contract in the prior offseason (in Cox'). And my team definitely struggled early in the year with the injuries to Crabtree and Gilmore and Irvin's suspension. But the Ravens would have been dangerous down the stretch when the full squad was assembled.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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May 11, 2011
10,391
NH
I've got the Pats as the 5th seed (surprise, surprise) and the AFC North fighting for the 6th seed. The West and the South aren't really strong divisions. 
 
I'd say let's just get the poll up and start voting. Not much discussion going on. Maybe the votes will spark some?
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
I vote for the Pats and the Ravens. I think my squad ends up 5-11 and finishes 11th in the division.
 

soxfan121

JAG
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Dec 22, 2002
23,043
SMU_Sox said:
I vote for the Pats and the Ravens. I think my squad ends up 5-11 and finishes 11th in the division.
:bill-throwing:
 
There is a veritable ream of paper on why y'all thought you won the division. This sudden reversal because you realized drafting in the 20s would be less than ideal is transparent. 
 
I'm not sure on whether the Pats or the Ravens is my #2 wildcard, but I'm damn sure voting for the Browns as the 5 seed. Like I said, the voluminous explanations on why y'all thought you won the AFC North were somewhat persuasive. 
 
IOW, you gonna stop shooting yourselves in the foot next season?
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
So I'm not allowed to change my mind? I argued for what I thought was right. Then a ton of posters told me why my squad wasn't nearly as good as I thought it would be. I changed my mind. QB is the most important position on the field and I have a shit QB. That and I would have started Gabbert for those first 2 games. So we start off 0-2 before we go to RFP. We go .500 or worse with RFP. We can't win a wc spot with a sub .500 record.
 

PayrodsFirstClutchHit

Bob Kraft's Season Ticket Robin Hoodie
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Jun 29, 2006
8,319
Winterport, ME
Lets's look at how Vegas sees the SB odds of the AFC East rivals for the Pats in 2014.
 
Buffalo   65/1 to 75/1 (3rd worst overall in many lists)
Jets       65/1 to 75/1
Miami    50/1 to 55/1
 
Pats are 8/1 to 12/1 (4th best overall in many lists).
 
Certainly not seeing the logic in selecting Buffalo as the AFC East winner with the Pats as a wild card.
 
Pats still win this division. 
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

Member
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Jan 17, 2006
3,016
PayrodsFirstClutchHit said:
Lets's look at how Vegas sees the SB odds of the AFC East rivals for the Pats in 2014.
 
Buffalo   65/1 to 75/1 (3rd worst overall in many lists)
Jets       65/1 to 75/1
Miami    50/1 to 55/1
 
Pats are 8/1 to 12/1 (4th best overall in many lists).
 
Certainly not seeing the logic in selecting Buffalo as the AFC East winner with the Pats as a wild card.
 
Pats still win this division. 
 
Ha
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
By weeks 14 to 17 my squad has some serious injury problems. If you think about it that way we'd go 0-2 with Gabbert then switch to RFP. But the last 3-4 weeks of the season we lose games because we have injuries. So the games we win have to come in weeks 3 to 13 and we have our toughest schedule then. If we start the season 0-2 and end it at best 1-3 do you really think RFP can go 8-2 during those 10 weeks? Neither do I.
 

JerBear

Member
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Nov 11, 2006
1,582
Leeds, ME
I voted Pats and Texans.  I think I beat up on the other teams in my division, split with the Karachi Mannings and sneak into the 6 spot.
 

Super Nomario

Member
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Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
SeoulSoxFan said:
I can honestly say my Steelers would beat half of these teams in a neutral field /bitter
Hey, you get to add a top-8 pick to a really nice core. I'm going to get the consolation "prize" of being the best non-playoff team.
 

Dollar

Member
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May 5, 2006
11,086
SeoulSoxFan said:
I can honestly say my Steelers would beat half of these teams in a neutral field /bitter
 
I'm with you on this.  I actually looked for the Steelers on the list because I was planning on voting for them when I re-examined all the teams in all divisions.  Too bad your division was so close this year.