AL East PECOTA Projections
- Thread starter VORP Speed
- Start date
Are the Sox really a scratch fielding team? I'd assume all 3 outfield spots and 2b are +, SS and C are scratch, 3b and 1b are -. PECOTA must either be bearish on the outfield/Pedroia's playing time, or expect that Sandoval remains a disaster at 3b and that Hanley can't be any more than a disaster at 1st.
Tampa scored 644 runs last year and are projected to score 713 next year. Regression can account for some of that gap, but not nearly all of it. Where are those 69 runs coming from? I know they have great pitching, but I'd be very surprised if Tampa finishes higher than third and would be comfortable projecting them in 4th, a good 5-8 games behind the Yankees when all is said and done.
They've added Corey Dickerson, Steve Pearce, Brad Miller, and Logan Morrison this winter. I imagine the projections figure they're good for improvements over their 2015 counterparts. Can't really say I disagree with that notion, particularly the first two guys. Steamer projects them to be right behind Longoria as the best offensive contributors on the team, at least per wRC+.
Those guys along with Jennings potentially bouncing back from an injury plagued 2015 and greater overall depth with the bats and it doesn't seem like an off the wall projection.
It's actually the FRAA with which I would quibble. I imagine a huge portion of that projection is Centerfield Defense Jesus who had a ridiculous 31 FRAA all by himself last year. I'm not really convinced that is real or sustainable.
PECOTA projections typically underrate teams like Orioles. Last four years they have missed Os actual performance by total of 45 games across that time. And this year they have Os giving up 93 more runs than last year's team and scoring less runs than Tampa??? Hard to see. But these projection systems are pretty useless as it relates to what actually happens during the season.
What do you mean by "teams like the Orioles"? What about them is typically underrated by PECOTA?
It seems to me that the PECOTA team win projections underweight certain areas like defense metrics, bullpen effects and teams like the Royals and Orioles that have been stronger in those areas are routinely underpredicted in the team win loss projections. They then tend to use words like "luck" when their team projections are as far off base as they have been with the Orioles three of the last four years.