Albert Pujols Watch

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
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Jul 19, 2005
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If Trout suddenly gets healthy, he has a chance. A couple of guys who are athletic and might have really productive 30s are Nolan Arrenado and Bryce Harper. They're at 31 years old/298 and 29/284 respectively.
Manny Machado is 30 and has 281, no injury issues I’m aware of. But that might just mean he has a good shot at 500.

Really, the 60-game season means all of these guys’ counting stats will be artificially dampened. Harper and Machado “should” have 300 already, Trout might be closing in on 400.
 

Max Power

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Manny Machado is 30 and has 281, no injury issues I’m aware of. But that might just mean he has a good shot at 500.

Really, the 60-game season means all of these guys’ counting stats will be artificially dampened. Harper and Machado “should” have 300 already, Trout might be closing in on 400.
For sure. Harper, Machado, and Arrenado are decent bets to hit 500. Harper and Trout could get 600. But it would take bringing back the 2019 ball for a longer time to get to 700.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
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Hoping Dylan or Cole Pedroia make the majors and play against Machado’s team on or before he’s sitting on 499. Payback would be great.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I don’t know that I realized this: for all of the discussion of Trout’s health issues, he has 36 HRs in 109 games this year. Still unlikely he gets to 700, but I think we might all be prematurely writing his professional obituary?
I don't think anyone's writing his obit, just gauging his chances of getting to 700 HRs. As great as he's been, he's still only halfway there at age 30. At his current HR/PA rate, he'll need roughly 6255 more PA to get to 700. It's taken him most of 12 seasons to get to 6114 PA. If we're generous and give him 10 years to get the next 6255 in (which is nearly perfect health), that's a 35 HR a season pace. A tall task for sure.
 

Hyde Park Factor

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Obligatory mention of Ted Williams who could have had 650-ish career HR's and 3,300-ish hits if not for the time he missed while he was in the military
 

Pitt the Elder

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I don't think anyone's writing his obit, just gauging his chances of getting to 700 HRs. As great as he's been, he's still only halfway there at age 30. At his current HR/PA rate, he'll need roughly 6255 more PA to get to 700. It's taken him most of 12 seasons to get to 6114 PA. If we're generous and give him 10 years to get the next 6255 in (which is nearly perfect health), that's a 35 HR a season pace. A tall task for sure.
If we can take any lessons from the stars that faded thread it's that it's really unlikely for any guy to maintain star level performance into their mid 30s, let alone as they approach 40.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
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Obligatory mention of Ted Williams who could have had 650-ish career HR's and 3,300-ish hits if not for the time he missed while he was in the military
That brings up another point

Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived, never hit more than 43 and only hit more than 38 once.
Not only WWII and Korea but he was both too patient and “too willing” to hit singles and doubles.

that’s what will “doom” Soto. He’s “too” selective.

give him 38x3 in 43-45 and full season in ‘52 and he still doesn’t get there
 

Max Power

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Of the four players who have 700 homers, Pujols has by far the fewest homers after turning 30. He has 334, Ruth had 430, Aaron 413, and Bonds 503. Obviously Bonds is an outlier, but if someone does hit that many homers in his career, he's going to have to be great in his 30s and still be compiling a bit in his 40s. Getting 300+ in your 20s sets you up for a chance. Any less and there's just no way without visiting BALCO.
 

nazz45

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The answer is more likely none but Vlad Jr hasn’t been mentioned. He’s been very durable so far and doesn’t walk at a prolific pace like Soto. Worry a bit about his body type as he ages.

Pete Alonso is too old but his 44 HR average over 162 games would get him there if he does it for… 13 more years.

In the way too early category there is Julio Rodriguez but even he is far behind someone like Acuna and, for that matter, Pujols at that age.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
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Imagine if some of those walks were at bats for Bonds. Still not sure what was more incredible in 2004, Bonds walk total or the Red Sox shutting up Shank.

one thing in the favor of current players is they’re batting 2 spots higher than they would have in the old days so they’re both getting more plate appearances and pitched around less often.
 

BaseballJones

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Agree about the consistency from Aaron. He never had that one spectacular season, but each season was pretty much like the one that came before it and the one that would come next.
I respectfully object to the idea that he never had that one spectacular season.

1971 - 47 hr, 118 rbi, .327/.410/.669/1.079, 194 ops+
1959 - 223 h, 39 hr, 123 rbi, .355/.401/.636/1.037, 183 ops+
1963 - 121 r, 201 h, 44 hr, 130 rbi, .319/.391/.586/.977, 179 ops+
1962 - 127 r, 45 hr, 128 rbi, .323/.390/.618/1.008, 170 ops+

Those are, by any measure, all spectacular seasons. The issue isn't that he was just consistently good but without spectacular seasons. The issue is that he had a LOT of spectacular seasons. Like, a crap ton of them.

110+ runs 7 times
200+ hits 3 times
40+ homers 8 times
120+ rbi 7 times
20+ sb 6 times
.320+ avg 8 times
.390+ obp 8 times
.600+ slg 6 times
1.000+ ops 5 times
170+ ops+ 6 times
8.0+ bWAR 9 times

By contrast, at age 30 (7 seasons in), Aaron Judge has reached those milestones:

110+ runs 7 times (Judge: 2)
200+ hits 3 times (Judge: 0)
40+ homers 8 times (Judge: 2)
120+ rbi 7 times (Judge: 1)
20+ sb 6 times (Judge: 0)
.320+ avg 8 times (Judge: 0)
.390+ obp 8 times (Judge: 3)
.600+ slg 6 times (Judge: 2)
1.000+ ops 5 times (Judge: 2)
170+ ops+ 6 times (Judge: 2)
8.0+ bWAR 9 times (Judge: 1)

Hank Aaron's top seasons are incredible. It's just that he's had a LOT of top seasons, not that he's had a lot of "really good" seasons but no top seasons.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
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Can we please not talk about rooting for injuries. It’s gruesome.
I will take your point. Under advisement. Didn't realize you were an opponent of justice, or that justice was gruesome. And the pluralization is totally uncalled for, in any case. Carry on.
 

E5 Yaz

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Casas is only 22 and is already up to 4. 700 might be a stretch, but 600 seems pretty likely.
On the other hand, there's a player who homered in his first MLB at-bat, played 20 seasons, and never hit another

Hoyt Wilhelm
 

54thMA

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MLB.com front page has the video
Ok, who had Phil "I've got three pitches; balls, base hits and 400 foot home runs" Bickford as the generational talent who served up #700?

Didn't his Dad play for the Washington Generals and then go on to open a chain of shitty restaurants?
 

GrandSlamPozo

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May 16, 2017
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That brings up another point

Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived, never hit more than 43 and only hit more than 38 once.
Not only WWII and Korea but he was both too patient and “too willing” to hit singles and doubles.

that’s what will “doom” Soto. He’s “too” selective.

give him 38x3 in 43-45 and full season in ‘52 and he still doesn’t get there
Williams missed most of '53 serving in Korea as well. He would've had an outside shot at 700 if he didn't miss any time serving. He also likely would've led the AL in OBP 19 consecutive years if he had managed to stay healthy in 1950 and 55 as well.
 

JoePoulson

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NL only recently got the DH so had he stayed in STL who knows how his career goes if they had to run him out in the field each night. Obviously going to Anaheim sucked for him, though.
 

lexrageorge

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Not sure how either the team or the ballpark had anything to do with Pujols dropping 250 OPS points with Anaheim. Being older than 32 years old is probably the better explanation. He's had a remarkable bounce back season at 42, and deserves all the credit for that. But to be in the inner circle of All Time Greats does require a level of consistency that select few ever approach.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

critical thinker
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NL only recently got the DH so had he stayed in STL who knows how his career goes if they had to run him out in the field each night. Obviously going to Anaheim sucked for him, though.
Great point. He definitely would have had to do some load management and be strictly a DH in AL parks during interleague, but I think being on a team that was always a threat to make a postseason run would have helped him a lot more than one that hoped to be at the time.

Ohtani came around too late for LAA. If his like comes around a few years ago, the Angels might have been able to break into the playoffs with a healthy Trout and Pujols.
 

JoePoulson

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I still can't get over his averages over his first 10 years:

.331 / .426 / .625, 119 runs, 41 HR, 123 RBI, 172 OPS+. Video game shit.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

critical thinker
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703 tonight, which was my pick for his final total. I hope for more, but with two games left and the postseason looming, he may not got many more chances.

Oh, and number two all time in RBI.
 

Catcher Block

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He hits 703 tonight in Pittsburgh, passes Ruth on the all-time RBI list.

Also his 263rd go-ahead HR, which passes Bonds for most all time.

And his 35th career HR at PNC Park, which is more than anyone on Pittsburgh's active roster.
 

streeter88

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Nice .895 OPS at age 42. I don’t think he’s got enough PAs to qualify, otherwise with an HR tomorrow he could join ~ 10 other people with 900 OPS for the season.

EDIT: If he did have enough PAs, he would currently rank seventh just ahead of Manny Machado.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

critical thinker
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Hasn't played yet today and may not, since it really doesn't matter if the Cardinals win this game (currently trailing). Very likely last night was it for him, at least in terms of regular season play. Still 2.1 innings to go, so we'll see.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

critical thinker
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And that's it. He doesn't get into the game and finishes his regular season career with:

Avg: .296 (BABIP: .284) (won 2003 NL batting title)
OPS: .918 (OBP: .373, SLG: .544)
HR: 703 (4th all-time) (won HR title 2009-10)
RBI: 2218 (2nd all-time)
SB: 117
SF: 123
H: 3384
2B: 686 (5th all-time) (won 2003 NL 2B title)
3B: 16
BB: 1373 (IBB: 316)
TB: 6211 (2nd all-time)
R: 1914
Silver Slugger: 6 (2001 (3B), 2003 (OF), 2004, 2008-10 (1B))
All-Star: 11 (2001, 2003-10, 2015, 2022)
NL Rookie of the Year (2001
NL MVP: 3 (2005, 2008, 2009)
Hank Aaron Award: 2 (2003, 2009)
2009 Heart and Hustle Award
Gold Glove: 2 (2006, 2010) (set Major League record for single season assists at 1B in 2009 (185))

There's more I could put but that pretty much says it all.
 

BoSox Rule

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It’s kind of amazing how terrible he was with the Angels. His career rate stats don’t really do just to the kind of hitter he was because most greats like him don’t have decline phases that last 10 years and are so genuinely awful.
 

axx

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It’s kind of amazing how terrible he was with the Angels. His career rate stats don’t really do just to the kind of hitter he was because most greats like him don’t have decline phases that last 10 years and are so genuinely awful.
If it wasn't for his contract, Pujols would have been out of baseball a long time ago.