ALCS Prediction Time: who ya got?

uk_sox_fan

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Nov 11, 2006
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For the first time in this epic season the Sox are the favourites to win the WS.

BOS/LAD/HOU/MIL are 41/22/22/15 on 538 and 42.0/27.5/22.9/7.7 on fangraphs
 

Al Zarilla

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Dec 8, 2005
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For the first time in this epic season the Sox are the favourites to win the WS.

BOS/LAD/HOU/MIL are 41/22/22/15 on 538 and 42.0/27.5/22.9/7.7 on fangraphs
Wow. Unreal that were almost double Houston now. Is that what they’re saying? Still have to face Verlander and Cole again and Morton can be rough on right handed hitters. We shall see.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Nov 11, 2006
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Wow. Unreal that were almost double Houston now. Is that what they’re saying? Still have to face Verlander and Cole again and Morton can be rough on right handed hitters. We shall see.
Betfair Exchange has it closer - implied odds from the mids (average of bids and offers) are 35.9/25.2/22.3/16.6 which seems more realistic.

Boston bid and offer implieds are 34.7% / 37.9%

(i.e. people are willing to buy the Sox from you at a price that implies a 34.7% chance of winning and sell to you for a price that implies they have a 37.9% chance which implies that their true chances are somewhere in between)

Houston are 21.3% / 23.8%
 

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
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the projection systems all have their flaws. for example, on 538, for each individual game home teams are getting a huge +24 adjustment to their ELO. but I feel like in the playoffs it just isn't that huge of an individual advantage game to game.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Nov 11, 2006
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the projection systems all have their flaws. for example, on 538, for each individual game home teams are getting a huge +24 adjustment to their ELO. but I feel like in the playoffs it just isn't that huge of an individual advantage game to game.
Historically the home advantage is about the same in the playoffs (54%) than in the reg season [see this betting article with somewhat dubious conclusions when he slices the data too much]

I think the Elo adjustment seems about right
 

shepard50

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Nov 18, 2006
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Betfair Exchange has it closer - implied odds from the mids (average of bids and offers) are 35.9/25.2/22.3/16.6 which seems more realistic.

Boston bid and offer implieds are 34.7% / 37.9%

(i.e. people are willing to buy the Sox from you at a price that implies a 34.7% chance of winning and sell to you for a price that implies they have a 37.9% chance which implies that their true chances are somewhere in between)

Houston are 21.3% / 23.8%

I got 4/1 on the Red Sox winning the WS week before last in Vegas (we were up 1-0 in the ALDS). Doesn't seem to have shifted that much. The again, I always bet on the wrong day at the wrong time.
 

JimD

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Nov 29, 2001
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Fangraphs has the Sox as 66% favorites to win the ALCS, slightly worse than coin flip odds (68.75%).
 

uk_sox_fan

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Nov 11, 2006
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Sox now 52.7% likely to win WS per FG
(LAD 35.0%, Hou 8.6%, Mil 3.7%)

538 has it 52/32/7/8

BFX has it 51.7%/32.6%/6.5%/9.2% with B/A for each at:

BOS 51.3/52.2*
LAD 32.3/33.2*
HOU 6.5/7.4*
MIL 9.1/10.0*

*offers calculated by buying the other 3 teams which in all cases was a better bet than selling the one

edit: typo
 

Devizier

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Crazy to me that the AL has a projected 60-40 advantage in the World Series. LAD and MIL both look fairly strong in my book.
 

hawaiirsn

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Sep 22, 2006
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Sox now 52.7% likely to win WS per FG
(LAD 35.0%, Hou 8.6%, Mil 3.7%)

538 has it 52/32/7/8

BFX has it 51.7%/32.6%/6.5%/9.2% with B/A for each at:

BOS 51.3/52.2*
LAD 32.3/33.2*
HOU 6.5/7.4*
MIL 9.1/10.0*

*offers calculated by buying the other 3 teams which in all cases was a better bet than selling the one

edit: typo
The last individual Red Sox game that was won by team 538 had with higher probability of winning is Game 1 of ALDS. Of course a lot of these are 55/45% type of probabilities, but it goes to show that these models are robust only in an aggregate sense.