ALDS (BOS/HOU) series discussion thread (GM1@4:08PM, GM2@2:05PM)

bluefenderstrat

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So game 3 is also in the middle of the afternoon.

Thus, after a regular season in which about 5 of every 7 games are night games, all of the Red Sox first 3 playoff games are in the afternoon.

Just another reason why I've been able to put this made for TV crap shoot in proper context post-2004, 7, and 13.

Is there any demonstrable benefit to the Red Sox playing nothing but day games in the ESPN/FOX Sports Championship Tournament?
You sure do hate baseball.
 

RedOctober3829

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Cross-posted...here's how I break it down.

SP(2)--Sale, Pomeranz, Fister
SP/RP(2)--Porcello, E-Rod
RP(6)--Kimbrel, Reed, Price, Kelly, Smith, Maddox
C(2)--Leon, Vazquez
IF(8)--Moreland, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, Holt, Marrero, Ramirez, Nunez
OF(4)--Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Davis
 

Marceline

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Nah, but MLB is doing everything possible to wreck its product in search of short-term profits.
Many people make this same claim about games with 8pm start times. It's not really possible to please everyone especially across multiple time zones.
 

Unin10D

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Feb 7, 2017
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I wonder who the early innings, high leverage guy will be? The one who comes in the third with the bases loaded. Smith? Kelly? Maddox?
 

Unin10D

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I guess they have used him with runners on. I know there has been a sentiment to get a starter a clean inning, but he's not really a starter now
 

joe dokes

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I guess they have used him with runners on. I know there has been a sentiment to get a starter a clean inning, but he's not really a starter now
I think that point was driven home Saturday. Cant come into a game much less clean than that.
 

JimD

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Not surprisingly, the Sox aren't getting much love from the various prognosticators:

ESPN - Astros picked by 26, Red Sox by 4
SI - Astros picked by 8, Red Sox by 1
 

The Gray Eagle

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Houston keeping 3 catchers on the roster, must be planning on using Gattis as DH at least sometimes.
 

AB in DC

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The question is - how long does he need to get ready? I'd be surprised if he can be ready as quickly as guys with more experience as relievers, so they may need another guy as a stopgap until Price can get ready.
He was called in from the bullpen mid-inning in each of his last three appearances and did fine. Is there any reason to think that this is an issue?
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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A little surprised that Holt didn't make it given Farrell's love for him. Guess he just didn't show enough when he came back. If they advance, does he get a look then or is he done until 2018?
 

Unin10D

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Feb 7, 2017
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why fister in 3 and not 4?
Assuming Erod in game 3..don't want 3 lefties in a row??
All signs point at Edrod being used out of the bullpen. They might try to save him for Game 4 if they're up, and turn it over to Sale if the season is on the line
 

BigPapiMPD34

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Apr 9, 2006
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I don't think enough gets made about the reasoning for why the Red Sox had less home runs this year compared to other teams. I've always thought a decent part of it is simply related to ballpark factors and weather. While the Astros were relatively neutral in terms of Home vs Away games, the Red Sox hit significantly more HRs on the road. Also, guys like Devers and Nunez didn't join the team til late July. Bogaerts also has talked about how he played through a wrist injury most of the year, but appears to be healthy now. Hopefully this means we don't need to worry too much about a power outage compared to our slugging opponents.

Overall, it looks really bad:
Yankees HRs: 240
Astros HRs: 238
Red Sox HRs: 168

When Considering Ballpark Factors:
Astros HRs at Home: 115
Astros HRs on Road: 123
Yankees HRs on Road: 101
Red Sox HRs on Road: 95
 

TeddyBallgame9

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Porcello or Sale for game 4?
Seems like Farrell is setting up for Sale to pitch game 4 regardless of whether it is 1-2 or 2-1. If you're up 2 games to 1 wouldn't you prefer to finish them off in Boston rather than let the Astros off the hook and give them the deciding game 5 at home?
 

uncannymanny

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I’m so fucking pumped right now. Let’s leave the regular season negativity behind in this thread, huh? Everyone’s 0-0. Don’t let us win today.
 

geoflin

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Pomeranz would be able to pitch game 5 on normal rest with 2 off days between games 2 and 5. If he pitches decently in game 2 and Sale is able to pitch game 4 on short rest they can avoid using Porcello and Rodriguez as starters which, given recent history, seems like a good thing. Of course should Pomeranz give up a bunch of runs early in game 2 that changes everything.
 

mt8thsw9th

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Not surprisingly, the Sox aren't getting much love from the various prognosticators:

ESPN - Astros picked by 26, Red Sox by 4
SI - Astros picked by 8, Red Sox by 1
And some nitwit at Yahoo selected them as the biggest disappointment. How can you disappoint if you're that much of an underdog?
 

BaseballJones

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Last four Red Sox postseason games, here's their starting pitching performances. Be prepared to avert your eyes...

2016 Porcello: 4.1 ip, 6 h, 5 r, 5 er, 0 bb, 6 k
2016 Price: 3.1 ip, 6 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb, 3 k
2016 Buchholz: 4.0 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 4 k
2017 Sale: 5.0 ip, 9 h, 7 r, 7 er, 1 bb, 6 k

Totals: 16.2 ip, 25 h, 19 r, 19 er, 4 bb, 19 k, 10.26 era, 1.74 whip, 10.3 k/9

It's really, really, really hard to win postseason games when your pitchers are constantly burying you early in the game. Not impossible, but really hard.

Not surprisingly, the Red Sox are 0-4 in these games. Not one starting pitcher getting more than 15 outs. And there are some GOOD pitchers in that group.

Very, very discouraging.

Meanwhile, here's what the opposing starting pitchers have done against Boston in these games...

2016 Bauer: 4.2 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 3 er, 0 bb, 6 k
2016 Kluber: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 3 bb, 7 k
2016 Tomlin: 5.0 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 4 k
2017 Verlander: 6.0 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 3 k

Totals: 22.2 ip, 19 h, 7 r, 7 er, 6 bb, 20 k, 2.78 era, 1.10 whip, 7.9 k/9

Night and day.
 

tims4wins

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Interesting that the Sox starters have a better K:BB ratio. Nearly 5:1 vs only 3.33:1 for the opponents. BABIP in play? Maybe not since so many HR given up? Perhaps I am grasping at straws.

But if BABIP - I think we have a candidate for a sacrifice to the gods...
 

DeadlySplitter

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Nunez's season getting fucked might be the finishing blow to our offense. Really unfortunate as he was a X factor in August.

the corpse of Young now probably DHs against Keuchel. Fun!
 

jaytftwofive

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jaytftwofive

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Actually, the Braves had two other halfway decent starters in 1948: Bill Voiselle and Vern Bickford. Their BWARs were close to that of Spahn himself that year. Spahn did have a bit of an off year for him in 1948. One of the great baseball poems of all time though. Full version:

First we’ll use Spahn, then we’ll use Sain,
Then an off day, followed by rain.
Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain,
And followed, we hope, by two days of rain

Actually, the Braves had two other halfway decent starters in 1948: Bill Voiselle and Vern Bickford. Their BWARs were close to that of Spahn himself that year. Spahn did have a bit of an off year for him in 1948. One of the great baseball poems of all time though. Full version:

First we’ll use Spahn, then we’ll use Sain,
Then an off day, followed by rain.
Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain,
And followed, we hope, by two days of rain.
I remember what the WBZ Radio overnight host said in 03 after Sox beat the A's and were about to face the Yanks. Pedro and Lowe and two days of snow.
 

Hobson's Choice

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No, a long series, dumbo. We split in Houston and then try not to return unless for game 5. Is there a Manila metric for the lurkers?
 

The Talented Allen Ripley

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Half of what I said is coming true. They are using Fister in Game 3. Farrell realizes we need a righty and Doug seems to have turned it around. As to your condescending remarks I am 60 years old and have been following the game since 1965.
Then you should have known there's no way to stretch Joe Kelly out into a starter in time for Game 3, yet you asked the question anyway.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Update. Last 5 Red Sox' playoff games now, here's their starting pitching performances:

2016 Porcello: 4.1 ip, 6 h, 5 r, 5 er, 0 bb, 6 k
2016 Price: 3.1 ip, 6 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb, 3 k
2016 Buchholz: 4.0 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 4 k
2017 Sale: 5.0 ip, 9 h, 7 r, 7 er, 1 bb, 6 k
2017 Pomeranz: 2.0 ip, 5 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 1 k

Totals: 18.2 ip, 30 h, 23 r, 23 er, 5 bb, 20 k, 11.1 era, 1.87 whip, 9.64 k/9

And here are the starting pitching performances by every starter so far in the 2017 playoffs:

Severino: 0.1 ip, 4 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 0 k
Santana: 2.0 ip, 3 h, 4 r, 4 er, 2 bb, 0 k
Greinke: 3.2 ip, 6 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 1 k
Gray (Col): 1.1 ip, 7 h, 4 r, 4 er, 0 bb, 2 k
Sale: 5.0 ip, 9 h, 7 r, 7 er, 1 bb, 6 k
Verlander: 6.0 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 3 k
Gray (NY): 3.1 ip, 3 h, 3 r, 3 er, 4 bb, 2 k
Bauer: 6.2 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 8 k
Pomeranz: 2.0 ip, 5 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb, 1 k
Keuchel: 5.2 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 7 k
Sabathia: 5.1 ip, 3 h, 4 r, 2 er, 3 bb, 5 k
Kluber: 2.2 ip, 7 h, 6 r, 6 er, 1 bb, 4 k
Hendricks: 7.0 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 0 er, 3 bb, 6 k
Strasburg: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 2 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 10 k

Walker: 1.0 ip, 4 h, 4 r, 4 er, 2 bb, 3 k
Kershaw: 6.1 ip, 5 h, 4 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 7 k

16 quality starting pitchers - including some of the very best in the game (Severino, Greinke, Sale, Verlander, Keuchel, Pomeranz, Kluber, Hendricks, Strasburg, Kershaw). Of these 16 starts, just FIVE of them have been good. One was mediocre (Sabathia's). One was....passable (Kershaw's), but the rest (9 of the 16) were godawful, horrendous, disastrous performances.

It's hard to overstate just how bad the starting pitching has been this series. And let's be honest. The Red Sox had both Verlander and Keuchel on the ropes in the early innings, but couldn't break it open. Then those guys settled down.

It's been an epic meltdown by most of the starting pitching in these playoffs so far. Not just for Boston.

Boston (2 g): 7.0 ip, 14 h, 11 r, 11 er, 2 bb, 7 k, 14.14 era, 2.29 whip, 9.0 k/9
New York (3 g): 9.0 ip, 10 h, 10 r, 8 er, 8 bb, 7 k, 8.00 era, 2.00 whip, 7.0 k/9

It's not like the Yankees' starting pitching has been much better than Red Sox' starting pitching. But the Yankees are 1-2 because they've managed to score some runs.