I think the test is 2025. Do they make short sighted moves to chase a playoff spot (like they did in 2021), or play the longer game?
Alpha Wolf: Eliot Wolf named de facto GM
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
This is the story I'm telling myself about what they're doing... I hope it's right!
I'm also going to continue to hope that Polk and Wallace turn a page and show us things that validate where they were drafted. And that a handful of other guys who we more-or-less-picked-up-for-free (Elliss, Pettus, Hawkins, Jaheim Bell, Michael Jordan) pop and turn into competent league-average starters.
Don't look now, but a gust of crisp air just blew through hell. Which is to say, 'Trey Jacobs actually did a decent job of pass blocking, first against Tennessee and then again against the Bears...
(I'm not going to let myself get optimistic. Yet.)
Yeah, I'm not really that down on anything yet. Sure I'd like to have seen more out of Polk, and Wallace before injury, but it;s still early.This is the story I'm telling myself about what they're doing... I hope it's right!
I'm also going to continue to hope that Polk and Wallace turn a page and show us things that validate where they were drafted. And that a handful of other guys who we more-or-less-picked-up-for-free (Elliss, Pettus, Hawkins, Jaheim Bell, Michael Jordan) pop and turn into competent league-average starters.
Don't look now, but a gust of crisp air just blew through hell. Which is to say, 'Trey Jacobs actually did a decent job of pass blocking, first against Tennessee and then again against the Bears...
(I'm not going to let myself get optimistic. Yet.)
I meant it more there haven't really been any breakouts.
Okorafor quit, he was the biggest dice roll hoping for value.
On the other hand, a bunch of small contributors.. Hooper has been decent, they're piecing together line play with a bunch of guys who weren't on the roster to open the season wall of whom they got for nothing (Jordan, Jacobs, Brown), Roy has been a decent situational player the last few weeks they pulled off waivers, Pettus looks like he can play for real and he was nice UDFA.
I think they should be chasing a playoff spot next year.
I don't really have much issue with the 2021 spending spree, the players they brought in were largely fine, I don't think the money spent set the frranchise back. The problems were elsewhere, the QB and the coaches. We have 7 games to go this year and Maye so far looks like a franchise guy. Assuming Maye's trajectory holds over the rest of the year, it's time to invest around him.
I agree they need to invest around him. I just hope they do it with a long term focus and not solely on chasing a playoff spot in 2025 (e.g., signing a 30 year old WR or something).
This thread deserves a bump after Ladd McConkey made Wolf look stupid today.
For all of the Mayo talk, I can’t believe they’re likely to bring Wolf back as GM. He’s had an awful first year.
I give him more credit than most here for drafting Maye. And I don’t fault him for not being able to attract any high end free agents given the circumstances of the franchise. But he’s been brutally bad at everything else.
His non-Maye draft has been a catastrophe. The mid-tier FAs have been bad. The guys he re-signed have all gotten worse. His in season acquisitions, when he bothered to do them, have been failures across the board.
He stinks. I want him nowhere near the decision on the #2 pick. He’s gotta go.
For all of the Mayo talk, I can’t believe they’re likely to bring Wolf back as GM. He’s had an awful first year.
I give him more credit than most here for drafting Maye. And I don’t fault him for not being able to attract any high end free agents given the circumstances of the franchise. But he’s been brutally bad at everything else.
His non-Maye draft has been a catastrophe. The mid-tier FAs have been bad. The guys he re-signed have all gotten worse. His in season acquisitions, when he bothered to do them, have been failures across the board.
He stinks. I want him nowhere near the decision on the #2 pick. He’s gotta go.
Yet another NFL nepo baby. He took Maye. Good. Literally almost everything else…bad. He needs to go. Like you, I don’t want him anywhere near this offseason but it looks like we’re stuck with him and Mayo another year. Good job, good effort, Krafts.
Thirded. I also give him more credit than most for Maye. His other good moves were trading Judon for a 3rd, re-signing Henry, and the Hooper signing. Possibly Slye, I guess, although Ryland has had a better year, so maybe not.
Everything else - ranging from below average to total disaster.
Everything else - ranging from below average to total disaster.
I think it is hard to disentangle Wolf and Mayo. Unlike Mayo, Wolf had NFL experience outside NE, and I think it may be hard to evaluate his personnel decisions given how terrible the coaching has been.
We also don't know how much Wolf was involved in recent prior drafts, and we know that it was essentially BB's personnel without BB running the football operation from last year.
We also don't know how much Wolf was involved in recent prior drafts, and we know that it was essentially BB's personnel without BB running the football operation from last year.
I think this is why you just clean house and start over. The team has cratered. Trying to split the baby and salvage the good while removing the bad (oddly the GOAT HC in this scenario) is how you got here. It is not working. Like every other franchise, they now need a reset and some new talent at GM, HC and on the field. Run a real search and select the best candidates.
The risk there is that it is too much to do in one offseason.
It also depends on who you hire at HC: someone who slots in below the GM or above.
Washington did this last year?
This should be doable if they’re decisive. They should announce everyone is gone next Monday and the GM search begins immediately. Of course you’re constrained by personnel on teams still in it so in theory most of who you want, but get moving. No hemming and hawing and then you’re stuck with who you’ve got or whoever is left. IMO the decision is already made, we just don’t know if their messaging is posturing or what. If they truly still don’t have an idea of what they’re going to do and can’t prioritize and act quickly then they deserve what they get.
Can we even give Wolf credit for the Maye pick? It's not like they took Maye over Williams and Daniels. Maye was the best QB available at #3, they needed a QB, so they took him. The only credit you can give Wolf is that he didn't trade the pick away for a lower tier QB and mid-tier picks.
Lots of names get bandied around as HC, but who could replace Wolf?
Seems like the position would be tempting with high first pick and lots of cap space.
Seems like the position would be tempting with high first pick and lots of cap space.
Ray Agnew? Or John Dorsey to go Lions
Mike Borgonzi, Ian Cunningham, Josh Williams could be interesting… I admittedly don’t know much about this and have no idea who could be actually available, but that’s what the search is for. Good teams have, at least in theory, good FO teams to mine but can’t identify them if you don’t talk to them. In case it isn’t obvious I really, really hope they dump everyone and have a broad search. It’s way past time to bring in new people and ideas
The package deal of Robinson/Vrabel/McDaniels is one option. As for others, maybe...
Dimitroff
Liipfert (Houston)
Ahmad (SF)
Sullivan (GB)
Highsmith (Internal)
No idea who would want the job but it is attractive. They need to run the process.
I think the Patriots would be a very attractive HC vacancy. Kraft is, I think, highly regarded in general, the Pats have a winning tradition, they've got lots of $$ to spend, a high draft slot, and a stud young QB with enormous potential who is only a rookie. So they have in place the hardest and most important thing to get when building a franchise.
I think a lot of coaches would love the opportunity to rebuild this organization. If they fire Mayo, they should have lots of good options if they want to do a real search.
I think a lot of coaches would love the opportunity to rebuild this organization. If they fire Mayo, they should have lots of good options if they want to do a real search.
Is that the same Ray Agnew? Man, I feel old:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AgneRa20.htm
So I think the case for Wolf is pretty easy to make...
1. GMs often have rough first drafts.
2. He was the interim GM through May, that means he was likely operating with a lot of ownership and coach indluence.
3. He didn't spend much in FA after the top guys he targeted didn't want to be here.. An interim GM probably doesn't get to make that call without ownership agreeing.
4. He did decently on his mid-level signings, one big (non-talent related) miss, but about average outcomes of on the rest.
5. The strategy shown in trade targets (aggressive on Aiyuk, not chasing washed names at big money) was a good one. Also the Judon trade was great.
6. He didn't make bad cap moves out of desperation, the situation in cap and picks is good.
7. The coaching has been bad which makes signings and picks look worse.
. GM offseason outcomes even for the best GMs can swing wildly, it's a high variance job so you usually need multiple years to judge.
ALL THAT SAID....
I think you still clean house and run a real search (with outside help) bring in a new GM let him pick his coach and do this the right way.
Options include:
Ray Agnew from DET
Mike Borgonzi from KC
John Spytek from TB
Alac Halaby from PHI
Dave Sears from ARI
Trey Brown from CIN
1. GMs often have rough first drafts.
2. He was the interim GM through May, that means he was likely operating with a lot of ownership and coach indluence.
3. He didn't spend much in FA after the top guys he targeted didn't want to be here.. An interim GM probably doesn't get to make that call without ownership agreeing.
4. He did decently on his mid-level signings, one big (non-talent related) miss, but about average outcomes of on the rest.
5. The strategy shown in trade targets (aggressive on Aiyuk, not chasing washed names at big money) was a good one. Also the Judon trade was great.
6. He didn't make bad cap moves out of desperation, the situation in cap and picks is good.
7. The coaching has been bad which makes signings and picks look worse.
. GM offseason outcomes even for the best GMs can swing wildly, it's a high variance job so you usually need multiple years to judge.
ALL THAT SAID....
I think you still clean house and run a real search (with outside help) bring in a new GM let him pick his coach and do this the right way.
Options include:
Ray Agnew from DET
Mike Borgonzi from KC
John Spytek from TB
Alac Halaby from PHI
Dave Sears from ARI
Trey Brown from CIN
Every offseason there are always numerous promising college coaches and NFL coordinators and ex-NFL head coaches available and dying to take the next NFL head coaching opportunity that comes up. The Pats will have no problem conducting a search among multiple promising candidates if they should go down that route. Anyone that tells you otherwise doesn't know how coveted NFL coaching gigs truly are.
The bigger challenge will be rebuilding a roster that, with a couple of exceptions, is almost totally bereft of NFL-caliber talent.
The problem is that good ownership would have decided to clean house weeks ago. And they would have been having back channel conversations with potential GM candidates since that decision.
Good ownership wouldn’t be starting the process next week. They’d be near the end of that process.
But I don’t think we have good ownership. They’re cheap, weird, star fuckers. And I’m fairly certain they’re going to run it all back.
Wolf’s going to botch our draft. That I’m also fairly certain of.
Good ownership wouldn’t be starting the process next week. They’d be near the end of that process.
But I don’t think we have good ownership. They’re cheap, weird, star fuckers. And I’m fairly certain they’re going to run it all back.
Wolf’s going to botch our draft. That I’m also fairly certain of.
I am by no means a Wolf apologist, but Austin Hooper has been a solid addition. The TE room, while probably due for an injection of youth in the next couple drafts (Bell?), has been a nice surprise.
The Pats are definitely one of the most attractive jobs in the league. Young franchise QB, good draft position, tons of cap room, and the fact that almost any bum off the street can improve on a 3-14 record.
My biggest concern is that there were some media rumors (take those with a grain of salt) was that the Pats leadership/ownership looked like idiots when conducting interviews last offseason. One of the most important jobs for ownership is to sell talented people that they should come here. They miserably failed at that last offseason, despite the fact that the fundamentals of this opportunity are good. So, they either need to completely change their approach or bring in someone who can sell this opportunity to talented individuals.
My biggest concern is that there were some media rumors (take those with a grain of salt) was that the Pats leadership/ownership looked like idiots when conducting interviews last offseason. One of the most important jobs for ownership is to sell talented people that they should come here. They miserably failed at that last offseason, despite the fact that the fundamentals of this opportunity are good. So, they either need to completely change their approach or bring in someone who can sell this opportunity to talented individuals.
To be fair those Meetings were Mayo JKK and Stacey James for OCs. You would hope only one of those would be in these
And those interviews only happened because Mayo had no contacts around the league or
plan at arguably his most important hire.
I think any case in Wolf's favor falls apart when you look at his first draft. There are rough first drafts, and then there's whatever the hell this is. The team needed talent everywhere, and had high picks in each round. Wolf took 8 players: Maye, who was the 3rd rated QB and the Pats took him as the 3rd QB so they really had CHI and WAS making the choice for them, and 7 other players who have literally contributed nothing to the team at all. 7! That's really hard to do; most of the time you'll luck into someone who turns out to be a player.
But no, Wolf found Polk, Wallace, Robinson, Baker, Dial, Milton, and Bell, and not a single one of them can play at the NFL level. Polk and Baker are WORSE than N'Keal Harry was, as a little treat.
That's impressively incompetent, and Wolf screwing up this draft has at the very least punted the rebuild down the road another year. A new GM would come in and immediately dump at least 6 of those guys (Wallace being hurt likely saves him). That's execrable draft management.
I agree with Cellar Door in that the Juson deal was a good one, and Wolf has done a couple of other decent things. But the draft....you can't take charge of a rebuilding team and fail a draft that badly.
But no, Wolf found Polk, Wallace, Robinson, Baker, Dial, Milton, and Bell, and not a single one of them can play at the NFL level. Polk and Baker are WORSE than N'Keal Harry was, as a little treat.
That's impressively incompetent, and Wolf screwing up this draft has at the very least punted the rebuild down the road another year. A new GM would come in and immediately dump at least 6 of those guys (Wallace being hurt likely saves him). That's execrable draft management.
I agree with Cellar Door in that the Juson deal was a good one, and Wolf has done a couple of other decent things. But the draft....you can't take charge of a rebuilding team and fail a draft that badly.
And they were one “stand pat and take McConkey” move away from having a solid draft. None of us would care about the rest if you nail your franchise QB and get him a talented WR in the first draft. But he blew it.
Honestly that draft looks exactly like the draft you have if you are an interim GM.. Forced WR and OT in the middle rounds (late rounds don't matter, most of those guys aren't sticking in the league) the positions the public (and owners) said they needed. Picked the WR that the WR coach had just been coaching... It's a very "draft by committee" feeling draft
Agreed, and that also tracks with Kraft's public comments about involving more people in the decision-making process after getting rid of the grouchy old bastard who used to be in charge.
It's a disaster.
I agree with almost all of this, but I really don’t like how you think Wolf doesn’t deserve any credit for picking Maye. The only time you don’t deserve credit for a draft pick working out is when you’ve got the 1st overall pick and there is a generational QB talent available. The only guys that fit that bill in the last 30 years are Manning, Luck and Lawrence (fucking Colts). If Maye had looked terrible (or not played at all), Wolf would be getting blamed either for taking a franchise QB before the team was ready to support one, or for not moving the pick for a potential haul (turning down whatever the Giant’s final offer was counts for something), or for taking the wrong QB (Maye was generally thought of either as the #3 QB or perhaps #2B, but there were 2 QBs taken after him in the top 10, and a 3rd taken at 12. If any of those guys looked significantly better than Maye, Wolf would be taking the blame for that, too).
It’s looking like he got a young, high ceiling franchise QB in the draft, the single most important task there is, and even if it wasn‘t the most difficult move in the world, it still counts. It’s doesn’t excuse the dumpster fire that came after Maye, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t get credit for making the straightforward (but still risky) move.
I’ve long been with SJH on this. Ok maybe Wolf gets like 10% credit for not royally screwing it up like he did the rest of the draft? This was a draft labeled as one of the best QB drafts in awhile with 3 consensus picks that would be #1 on their own most years.
Wolf is supposed to be one of the 30 best people in the world to draft and build a football roster. And yet the Pats would have been better off letting AI handle it, set up a poll in this forum, or have @SMU_Sox do it by himself.
I don’t know whats wrong with Polk, he should be better than this. The Baker pick is awful because it seems like the kid has the physical tools but he cannot crack this sad sack WR room. AVP has intimated that he cannot be trusted to line up and run the routes correctly. One would think in the pre draft process you would figure out if the player has the aptitude to play professional football.
Baker was a 4th rounder despite physical tools because he can't run routes... Which he still can't.
We have to get out of the mindset of "credit." When people say "Wolf should get credit for Maye, he deserves another year because of that" I shake my head. This isn't grade school where you get a report card for all your work. It's a key executive position at a multi-billion dollar business. We need the best man for the job, and the idea that Wolf picking Maye makes him the best man for the job is ludicrous given that the vast majority of options at GM would have done the exact same thing there. How many times has a team with no franchise QB traded out of a top draft pick spot with a top rated QB available? Sashi Brown and no one else. Sashi Brown was a complete failure as a GM as well. When asking if Wolf is the best choice to run player personnel for the New England Patriots, the Maye pick has very little bearing on whether he is or not.
Other than the Maye pick, Wolf has shown the makings of a complete amateur. He signed middling players at non-core positions to very expensive contracts. When there was a run on WRs in the draft, instead of zigging when others were zagging and taking the top defensive talent that fell, Wolf reached for a low-ceiling WR with a coaching connection. Then he reached again for a tackle in R3 after a run on tackles. Research has shown that reaching vs media consensus tends to be a losing bet, and smart teams like the Eagles and the Ravens typically pick chalk or similar to chalk.
The other problem with giving Wolf more time is that Mayo is a disaster of a head coach, and letting Wolf hire the next guy would be a huge vote of confidence for Wolf that he doesn't deserve. If we fire Mayo after one year, there is no chance that the next coach is getting canned after a year. Good GM candidates like to hire their own HC. So Wolf will get to stick around for a couple more years if we fire Mayo but keep him.
The sad thing is that this offseason is an incredibly crucial time for this franchise. If we give Wolf a couple more years just for the sake of it because he needs "credit" for the Maye pick and he screws it up, Maye's rookie contract will have been completely squandered, and with it, our best chance at a championship window. If Wolf gets this offseason, I'm very fearful that he's just going to do the same thing he did last year and draft for need. We'll take some mediocre tackle with the first pick and pass up on real difference makers.
Other than the Maye pick, Wolf has shown the makings of a complete amateur. He signed middling players at non-core positions to very expensive contracts. When there was a run on WRs in the draft, instead of zigging when others were zagging and taking the top defensive talent that fell, Wolf reached for a low-ceiling WR with a coaching connection. Then he reached again for a tackle in R3 after a run on tackles. Research has shown that reaching vs media consensus tends to be a losing bet, and smart teams like the Eagles and the Ravens typically pick chalk or similar to chalk.
The other problem with giving Wolf more time is that Mayo is a disaster of a head coach, and letting Wolf hire the next guy would be a huge vote of confidence for Wolf that he doesn't deserve. If we fire Mayo after one year, there is no chance that the next coach is getting canned after a year. Good GM candidates like to hire their own HC. So Wolf will get to stick around for a couple more years if we fire Mayo but keep him.
The sad thing is that this offseason is an incredibly crucial time for this franchise. If we give Wolf a couple more years just for the sake of it because he needs "credit" for the Maye pick and he screws it up, Maye's rookie contract will have been completely squandered, and with it, our best chance at a championship window. If Wolf gets this offseason, I'm very fearful that he's just going to do the same thing he did last year and draft for need. We'll take some mediocre tackle with the first pick and pass up on real difference makers.
They’ve got plenty of NFL caliber talent. Very little STARTING NFL caliber talent, unfortunately.
I think this is the kind of draft a mush makes.
The committee takes Llad instead of trading down because the committee thinks it’s smarter than the other GM when it’s clearly so much dumber.
edit - also very much fine with bongo’s plan to just have @SMU_Sox do it.
Clearly we need to see if Baker and Polk can contribute next season, so they should get all the snaps at WR next week. I’d like to see Wallace start, as well, to see if he can contribute to the OL next year.
Yeah, I think the draft seems much more like that of a complete amateur/someone playing for mediocrity and trying to keep his job than that of a committee. Pick the safest, low-ceiling guys at WR, OT which the media was howling for. Then blame the rest of the terrible roster on Belichick. Either way, the fact that our GM clearly forced a pick at WR and OT and managed to totally whiff is completely unacceptable. The run on WRs in round 1 had a dual-effect of making the WR options worse and also creating a huge opportunity to get 1st round graded defensive talent at premium positions in R2. Even if Polk was a success and hit like his 75th percentile outcome and became a good WR2, similar to Robert Woods, that would still be a failure. It was just a no-win move. Passing up on DeJean, Newton, McKinstry for Polk was a complete disaster.
Agreed. And without the ability to complete a forward pass to a WR, this would have the added benefit of absolutely ensuring a loss and locking in 1-1.
Nah, committee puts weight on the WR coach stumping for his guy and picking up extra picks for another person's pet project.
It's possible, but either way, a committee or an incompetent GM, we're clearly running a terrible process. So I'd rather Wolf be fired and we replace him with a GM with more gravitas if we're running a commitee than trying to keep Wolf and give him more power. Because if we really forced him into some committee style draft last year, how do we know he won't try to pick to appease ownership again, even if we "give him more power?"
W/r/t Gibson, this was one I watched closely.
Believe the college GM they recruited to the front office was meant to be some kind of running back whisperer. Gibson looks like he’s a step in the right direction, so not all player analysis is a train wreck.
So, if replacing the single grouchy bastard decision-maker with a committee of sorts led to shit, is it possible thst a committee-free Wolf left more to his own devices does better? (I have no idea what the answer is).
Gibson was always talented. He’s sort of limited to change of pace or passing situations though and had major fumble issues.
He’s not a bad rotational guy or half a platoon but other than fumbling less, he’s basically been the same guy here as in Washington. I don’t think Highsmith unearthed a secret gem here.
It was Wolf’s best move by far but that’s not saying much.
I would give up meat and seafood for a whole year if this would happen. Maybe 2.
If they went off the consensus board they would be better than vs me. If I were in charge I would defer to the consensus board vs my own. I would just make sure that we adjusted for scheme fits and eliminate guys who weren't. I might use my board and my preferences for a tie-breaker. That was a fun day-dream.
As for this year...
If you start over it makes it harder to do the draft well. You are likely not going to clean house until after the draft on the scouting side at the very least. You would have a limited ability to convert what they were looking at to your new system. I still want them to clean house at the top but it comes with some tradeoffs (again that I would gladly take). I would trade down this year if I were Wolf or the new GM. If you can get anything close to fair value pull the trigger. Try to get a 1 next year. This is the last super-duper senior COVID-impacted college draft. You are going to start to see more years with normal levels of blue chippers at the top vs 7 year starters taking up their snaps and preventing them from developing. After that you just have to make sure you know where the tier drops are, your horizontal board and the consensus horizontal board, and other teams info if you can get it (Bill certainly did!). We have so many needs... we need the ammo.
All of that fun and draft strategy aside if Wolf stays I hope his year 2 is a lot more lucky and they stick closer to consensus.
Every team has a Gibson and Hooper. The Pats just happen to feature theirs because of their talent deficiency. Pass catching RBs that you can't really trust in pass pro and move TEs that can't block are about the most fungible assets in the NFL.