Coming back here after being off line much of the last couple of weeks b/c holidays, family etc.
The last two weeks have moved me pretty clearly into the "time to clean house" camp. Excessively long post on why follows...
For most of the last several months I've been trying to give the powers that be the benefit of the doubt, for a few reasons:
- First, I was impressively wrong about Joe Mazzulla after his first season coaching the Celtics. I was banging the "He's got to go" drum pretty hard after Boston lost the 2023 ECF to Miami. And ho boy did he prove me wrong in the following twelve months.
- Second, it was hard from the outside to know what to make of what was happening inside the black box that was the Belichick-run Patriots. What was causing the consistently bad drafting, the head-scratching personnel decisions, the erratic offensive coaching, etc. etc.? It was hard to know what was going wrong and so what interventions would fix this issues. The Krafts' had a lot more visibility that I did into what had been going on, and so it seemed reasonable to let their plan play out and see if they weren't on to something.
Having gone back and reread a bunch of what I posted before and at the start of the season, there were a few things I clearly wanted see over the 2023 campaign, as evidence that the ship had been righted and turned in a better direction:
- I wanted to see Polk, Caedan Wallace, Layden Robinson, and perhaps a late-round pick exceed expectations and show that the college scouting team/process was on to something good with those picks
- I wanted some combination of moves provide evidence that Wolf/et al were the kind of savvy managers of talent/cap that could build a strong playoff team
- I wanted Mayo/et al to have the team playing fundamentally sound ball, with impressive schemes well-executed, and generally looking like they were well-prepared each week. Ideally, I wanted the team to be trending upward over the second-half of the season, and putting in multiple efforts where they appeared to punch over their weight class
Obviously, none of those things have happened
So, in retrospect, the story that best fits the facts-in-evidence points to a franchise that has been poorly run for the last several years. The challenges this created were somewhat offset, for a while, with the lingering benefits of having a GOAT defensive coach, albeit one who was losing his edge over the rest of the league as younger imitators copied and built on his accomplishments. Compounding our problems the GOAT defensive coach insisted on also playing the role of bad GM. And in the end the benefits of the first couldn't overcome the recurring flaws of the second.
In the last twelve months we removed the GOAT defensive coach/bad GM combo, and now appear to be left with just the poorly-run franchise. What to do?
I'm staying out of the Strum und Drang in the other thread, but generally side with the folks who see the Pats as an attractive opportunity for the right ambitious and talented GM/HC candidate. Why? I see two main reasons
- For ambitious people who want to prove their worth the Pats currently being a dumpster fire will be a feature, not a bug. They turn this franchise around and they get to bask in the glory of being the savior. If instead they go take over (say) a 12--win team and then win 11 games and everyone's will be a critic.
- The huge amount of salary cap flexibility makes this team a blank canvas, on which you can build more-or-less anything. There are no long-term contracts you need to build around. No scheme you need to be loyal to. You can implement your most glorious vision without impediment.
The Pats are a turn-around. So, we need someone excited to take on a turn-around, and build something from scratch. Those people would rather have a blank canvas and flexibility than a bunch of commitments they gotta accommodate.
If [Wolf + Highsmith] were assets that made the HC job more attractive, I'd consider keeping them. If [Mayo et al.] were assets that made the GM job more attractive, I'd consider keeping him. From the cheap seats I'm not sure either has shown enough to tie the hands of the people you're bringing in.
I'd go the Washington route that others have brought up:
- Announce you're launching a search or new football leadership, that will have complete authority over the front office, coaching, and player personnel
- Hire a group of external people to run the search, empower them to find the best talent + fit they can, as well as to assess the degree to which Wolf, Highsmith, Mayo, etc. were assets of any value to candidates
- Hire someone to this position of ultimate football leadership
- Let them fill out the rest of the front office and coaching staff as they see fit
I'm guessing that whoever you hire is going to want a long-term contract worth real money, as insurance against the Krafts' getting buyer's remorse. You pay it, because it's a reasonable thing for them to ask for. And you're not going to hire top talent by insisting they accept an unreasonable offer.
Hopefully, step #2, above, is already in process if not yet publicly announced. There's a lot you can do during the NFL playoffs, but it's always better to get as early a jump start as possible.