American Horror Story - 2023 Red Sox Lineup

[TomRicardo]

I am trying to get my head around this. Unless the Red Sox think LHH are the new market inefficiency, this lineup is terrible. I am not sure how they expect to score 700 runs. This is the worst line up since 2014. Using early 2023 ZIPs outside of Yoshida

Masatoka Yoshida - L .300/.355/.455 (This is tough to look at a decent project, HRs are the thing that don't carry over.)
Alex Verdugo - L - .295/.340/.445
Trevor Story - R - .255/.325/.465
Rafael Devers - L - .290/.355/.535
Triston Casas - L - .255/.355/.440
Kike Hernandez - R - ..250/.325/.415
Eric Hosmer - L - .285/.340/.430
Reese McGuire - L - .265/.315/.365
Christian Arroyo - R - .265/.315/.425

Connor Wong, Rob Refsnyder, Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran/Pick Up

That line up is terrible and will get murdered by LHP. I don't think there is anything available in FA that is going to help them at this point.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yeah, it’s pretty bad. The lineup was already not great, and three of the more productive players from last year are gone. Guess the hope is to have less at bats to terrible hitters - so replacing your worst hitters with more average ones?

Hosmer has to go, he serves no purpose on this roster. Add Segura, Conforto, and Turner and you can maybe squint and see at least an average offense.

 

[Ganthem]

Good thing the season doesn't start tomorrow. I am sure we will get at least one outfielder via trade and there are still some right handed bats on the market who can add value. I also think we will see a much improved Kike this year and Casas will be an upgrade at first over the dreck that was trotted out last year. As long as they abandon the three true outcome nonsense and focus on grinding out at bats and keeping the line moving, I can see this lineup rounding into shape by opening day.

 

[Doc Zero]

Nothing more than a gut feeling informed by his putrid season at the plate this year, but relying on Bobby Dalbec in '23—even as a regular platoon candidate—sure seems like a questionable strategy.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Available FA OF / DH (*LH)

JD
Belt*
Turner
Longoria
Brantley*
Cruz
Pollock
Gallo*
Sano
Duvall
Benintendi*
McCutchen
Mancini
Pham
Peralta*
Conforto*
Profar
Voit
Carpenter*

 

[Benj4ever]

While this probably won't be a popular take, I'd love bringing Jose Iglesias back. He's solid, if unspectacular offensively, but he'd be a big upgrade to the infield defense.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I agree with this completely, and to be fair, I don't think the rotation is that much better - but that isn't the point of this thread.

Obviously, there is still plenty of time (and money) left to fix it if they want to, but that remains to be seen.

4 of the top 5 are at least least young enough or historically good enough to be interesting, (omitting Devers because I'm operating under the assumption that at best Devers is gone this year for some decent prospects and at worst, and most likely, we lose him for nothing next off season the way we just did with Bogaerts) but after that there is nothing to be interested in besides maybe Hernandez having a good enough season that we can trade him for decent prospect at the deadline.

 

[walt in maryland]

I am trying to get my head around this. Unless the Red Sox think LHH are the new market inefficiency, this lineup is terrible. I am not sure how they expect to score 700 runs. This is the worst line up since 2014. Using early 2023 ZIPs outside of Yoshida

Masatoka Yoshida - L .300/.355/.455 (This is tough to look at a decent project, HRs are the thing that don't carry over.)
Alex Verdugo - L - .295/.340/.445
Trevor Story - R - .255/.325/.465
Rafael Devers - L - .290/.355/.535
Triston Casas - L - .255/.355/.440
Kike Hernandez - R - ..250/.325/.415
Eric Hosmer - L - .285/.340/.430
Reese McGuire - L - .265/.315/.365
Christian Arroyo - R - .265/.315/.425

Connor Wong, Rob Refsnyder, Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran/Pick Up

That line up is terrible and will get murdered by LHP. I don't think there is anything available in FA that is going to help them at this point.

Thngs look grim, but you don't honestly think they're finished building this lineup, do you?

 

[walt in maryland]

While this probably won't be a popular take, I'd love bringing Jose Iglesias back. He's solid, if unspectacular offensively, but he'd be a big upgrade to the infield defense.

I think there's an argument to be made that the Sox should extend Devers, spend some money on a couple of bats and a quality SP, and then acquire a stopgap like Iglesias or Nick Ahmed to provide quality SS defense until Mayer arrives. Beats the hell out of giving 10+ years to Swanson or Correa.

 

[chawson]

Doesn't it seem a little early for the pitchforks?

Here's the current Dodgers lineup using Steamer projections. Should they be mad?

Mookie Betts - .270/.353/.493
Freddie Freeman - .293/.383/.490
Will Smith - .252/.343/.473
Max Muncy - .226/.345/.435
Trayce Thompson - .220/.302/.439
Gavin Lux - .264/.339/.412
Chris Taylor - .227/.309/.377
Miguel Vargas - .264/.337/.447
James Outman - .238/.313/.446

 

[TomRicardo]

Thngs look grim, but you don't honestly think they're finished building this lineup, do you?

Ok what comes in and saves them?

That is the issue. Even if they grab Brantley and Correa, that line up doesn't get to 800 runs, hell it would be a struggle to match last year's numbers.

 

[ehaz]

You need a RHH DH that's not Hosmer. He's a terrible roster fit. Preferably someone who can also play the field for some roster flexibility. You also obviously need a SS. Story/Arroyo are not realistic options. And you likely need another OF even if the plan is to go with Verdugo in RF. Refsnyder is perfect as a 5th OF, but he can't be the 4th OF on a team with Kike (injury history plus will need to play IF some games to back-up other oft-injured players), Yoshida (poor fielder, likely will play a good portion of games at DH even if he is full time LF), and Verdugo (he's really a LF).

The FA options sans Correa/Swanson are not great. If you can't sign one of them, I would absolutely not trade anyone of value in the minors because this team's not going anywhere in 2023. Make a series of 1 to 2 year veteran signings who would be good clubhouse fits and be fun to watch and hope they have something left in the tank. Spend the big bucks on rotation upgrades instead.

Something like:
- Justin Turner or Evan Longoria (DH/3B/1B)
- Jean Segura, Elvis Andrus, or Jose Iglesias (SS)
- AJ Pollock (LF/CF/RF)

Balances out the lineup, and those guys aren't completely toast. Probably won't cost much. Then go get one of Senga/Eovaldi/Rodon.

 

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

Available FA OF / DH (*LH)

JD
Belt*
Turner
Longoria
Brantley*
Cruz
Pollock
Gallo*
Sano
Duvall
Benintendi*
McCutchen
Mancini
Pham
Peralta*
Conforto*
Profar
Voit
Carpenter*

This list is pretty unremarkable in every way. Turner as a right handed bat would be useful, but he has only played third base the last few years and is definitely in decline. As part of a cheap component of a DH platoon I could be interested, but short of that, I don't see how he fits. Only one inning of MLB outfield experience, so he has zero positional flexibility. Same goes for Longoria, but his bat is even on a steeper decline and.

Profar was always a binkie of mine in terms of a guy outside the organization I thought would blossom into a star. Clearly it didn't happen. But he put together a nice season last year. Unfortunately it was career year at 29 years old (essentially half of his career WAR came last year). He offers a switch hitting option, but is equally mediocre from both sides of the plate. He no longer plays any infield. Another pass.

Honestly, on that list, they probably go Wham Bam Tommy Pham, if they go for anyone at all. Id also be ok with Segura on the right deal, too.

Moral of that list? Trades are really the only way left to improve the lineup.

 

[ehaz]

Available FA OF / DH (*LH)

JD
Belt*
Turner
Longoria
Brantley*
Cruz
Pollock
Gallo*
Sano
Duvall
Benintendi*
McCutchen
Mancini
Pham
Peralta*
Conforto*
Profar
Voit
Carpenter*

AJ Pollock isn't a horrible stop-gap for OF. He's old and had a bad season, but had a 134 OPS+ in 2021 and a 132 OPS+ in 2020. He also destroys lefties and can (or could?) play all over the OF. His defense I'm sure is in decline from when he played a pretty good CF, but I assume he could still play there in a pinch.

Edit: Steamer projects 120 games, 105 wRC+, 1.2 WAR

 

[circus catch]

Projected wRC+ on fangraphs:

Casas 124
Bogaerts 122
JD 109

They don't have one for Yoshida yet but if the prediction above is correct, Yoshia's wRC+ will certainly be over 100. We all love Bogaerts for his cool, his intelligence, his durability, his class, and his history with us, but it's not going to be impossible to mostly replace his bat. His OPS has dropped three years in a row. Get Kiki back fulltime, hope Story can stay healthy, sign Segura and a righthanded outfielder for depth, and we're going to score some runs.

Now that rotation? Yeesh.

 

[8slim]

This is where I'm at today. Last year's offense was pretty good when it was clicking, and it ranked well. But it was wildly inconsistent. Now we've lost X, JD and Vazquez, and replaced them with... well, I'm willing to say that it's still a work in progress. But yeah, on 12/9/22 it doesn't inspire confidence.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yeah they really need some guys who can mash lefties. Pollock and Turner seem to qualify, and theoretically have that proven veteran winner stuff that GM’s tend to like when the team looks a little meh. Adding the two of them and Segura shouldn’t cost a ton in $$$ or years, I think it’s probably the direction to go in. Trades are always possible, but what do the Sox have to trade that has value and that they are comfortable trading? Doubt that Dalbec / Seabold / Downs / Winckowski etc can really return much, but you never know.

 

[8slim]

Projected wRC+ on fangraphs:

Casas 124
Bogaerts 122
JD 109

They don't have one for Yoshida yet but if the prediction above is correct, Yoshia's wRC+ will certainly be over 100. We all love Bogaerts for his cool, his intelligence, his durability, his class, and his history with us, but it's not going to be impossible to mostly replace his bat. His OPS has dropped three years in a row. Get Kiki back fulltime, hope Story can stay healthy, sign Segura and a righthanded outfielder for depth, and we're going to score some runs.

Now that rotation? Yeesh.

I'm using your mention as a jumping off point, because I've seen this referenced more than a few times around here.

Why do people have confidence in Kike being a strong offensive player? Were we really blinded by those 10 days in October 2021? His OPS+ the past 4 seasons was 75, 108, 81, 87. Offensively he's not good.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Doesn't it seem a little early for the pitchforks?

Here's the current Dodgers lineup using Steamer projections. Should they be mad?

Mookie Betts - .270/.353/.493
Freddie Freeman - .293/.383/.490
Will Smith - .252/.343/.473
Max Muncy - .226/.345/.435
Trayce Thompson - .220/.302/.439
Gavin Lux - .264/.339/.412
Chris Taylor - .227/.309/.377
Miguel Vargas - .264/.337/.447
James Outman - .238/.313/.446

While this is of course fair, the Dodgers have also shown a willingness to spend market value in terms of years and dollars for high impact players (Betts and Freeman), so there is reason to at least believe they might do that over the next several months. The Red Sox have not shown that. They also have a better farm system by pretty much every evaluation site that is deeper than that of the Red Sox to use in trades.

For what it's worth, Vargas has not shown nearly the platoon split in the upper minors that Casas has, either. Now, I like the idea of starting Casas at 1b/DH and breaking in prospects, but I do think Vargas will be a better MLB player than Casas - for that reason. However I'll call breaking in those two prospects a 'wash" since we really don't know how either will translate.

I'm not even saying the Red Sox are "wrong" in terms of not spending. Even if you count the 2020 tournament as a true World Series season (I don't) we're ahead of the Dodgers 4-1 this century in terms of titles.

But for this year, 2023, I think there is very little chance the Red Sox score nearly as many runs as the Dodgers. They were 1st in runs scored last season and from their starting line up return 4 of their top 6 players in OPS+ whom put up OPS+ scores of:

Freeman 152, Betts 136, Smith 120, Lux 105 and Muncy 96 (a bit below average).

The Sox on the other hand were 9th in runs scored our top returners in terms of OPS+ are Devers 141, Story 102 and Verdugo 102. Next highest "returning" player was Dalbec at 80.

For both teams, I'm discounting outliers whom are highly unlikely to repeat their success over a full season such as TThompson (145) or Rob Refsnyder (143) but in neither case am I betting on a 32 year old to repeat that success when it was drastically out of line with their career norms.

 

[TimScribble]

I am trying to get my head around this. Unless the Red Sox think LHH are the new market inefficiency, this lineup is terrible. I am not sure how they expect to score 700 runs. This is the worst line up since 2014. Using early 2023 ZIPs outside of Yoshida

Masatoka Yoshida - L .300/.355/.455 (This is tough to look at a decent project, HRs are the thing that don't carry over.)
Alex Verdugo - L - .295/.340/.445
Trevor Story - R - .255/.325/.465
Rafael Devers - L - .290/.355/.535
Triston Casas - L - .255/.355/.440
Kike Hernandez - R - ..250/.325/.415
Eric Hosmer - L - .285/.340/.430
Reese McGuire - L - .265/.315/.365
Christian Arroyo - R - .265/.315/.425

Connor Wong, Rob Refsnyder, Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran/Pick Up

That line up is terrible and will get murdered by LHP. I don't think there is anything available in FA that is going to help them at this point.

this is why I brought up in a previous thread that Correa really solves Boston’s two biggest issues. Right handed middle of the order bat and a shortstop. You say you learned from the X mistake and take the plunge.

 

[circus catch]

I'm using your mention as a jumping off point, because I've seen this referenced more than a few times around here.

Why do people have confidence in Kike being a strong offensive player? Were we really blinded by those 10 days in October 2021? His OPS+ the past 4 seasons was 75, 108, 81, 87. Offensively he's not good.

You're right in that Kike is not a "strong offensive player", but his projected wRC+ is 97. His OPS against lefties for his career is .822. In this lineup that has real value. Not to mention he solidifies the outfield defensively. He's worth more to the 23 team than JD would be. So that's where my confidence comes from.

 

[BaseballJones]

1. I think Kiké will bounce back after a rough season, so that should be more RH production.

2. If Story stays healthy (and for the most part he's been healthy for his career), that's a lot more RH production from him than last year.

3. Neither JDM nor Turner are what they used to be, not by a long shot. But both are still quality RH hitters, even if their power has decreased considerably. You could do worse than adding either of them.

But yeah, right now, at this point, that lineup is in rough shape. Getting Correa would be an enormous lift.

 

[JM3]

Lefty hitters certainly could be a market inefficiency with the new shift rules, & only 28% of innings are pitched by lefties. But yeah, I think it's pretty safe to say it's a work in progress.

 

[grepal]

I am trying to get my head around this. Unless the Red Sox think LHH are the new market inefficiency, this lineup is terrible. I am not sure how they expect to score 700 runs. This is the worst line up since 2014. Using early 2023 ZIPs outside of Yoshida

Masatoka Yoshida - L .300/.355/.455 (This is tough to look at a decent project, HRs are the thing that don't carry over.)
Alex Verdugo - L - .295/.340/.445
Trevor Story - R - .255/.325/.465
Rafael Devers - L - .290/.355/.535
Triston Casas - L - .255/.355/.440
Kike Hernandez - R - ..250/.325/.415
Eric Hosmer - L - .285/.340/.430
Reese McGuire - L - .265/.315/.365
Christian Arroyo - R - .265/.315/.425

Connor Wong, Rob Refsnyder, Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran/Pick Up

That line up is terrible and will get murdered by LHP. I don't think there is anything available in FA that is going to help them at this point.

Couple that with starting pitching that is beyond questionable but a much better bull poen and Sox are looking at about 70-74 wins, maybe. Last place three out of four years. The Bloom is quickly falling off the rose for this lifelong fan.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

We can’t judge this team because:

The offseason’s not over yet <— you are here
Teams don’t win games on paper
Teams don’t miss the playoffs in April
Let’s see where they are at the All Star Break
The roster will be very different after the trade deadline
This is a multi-year rebuild, give Bloom the off-season to show what he can do

 

[nighthob]

I think the Yoshida signing is indicative of a forthcoming Verdugo deal. Not sure who they'd be targeting, presumably a RHH. They could definitely use a RF/RHH that can play defense. I'm not seeing that guy in their system closer than Bleis and he's a good 3-4 years away.

 

[Ganthem]

I think the Yoshida signing is indicative of a forthcoming Verdugo deal. Not sure who they'd be targeting, presumably a RHH. They could definitely use a RF/RHH that can play defense. I'm not seeing that guy in their system closer than Bleis and he's a good 3-4 years away.

Given what the oft injured Nimmo got, Verdugo has to be very attractive.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

We can’t judge this team because:

The offseason’s not over yet <— you are here
Teams don’t win games on paper
Teams don’t miss the playoffs in April
Let’s see where they are at the All Star Break
The roster will be very different after the trade deadline
This is a multi-year rebuild, give Bloom the off-season to show what he can do

Understood on the off-season, but there is very little left on the FA market in terms of "mid tier talent" that would reasonably be expected to improve the offense to the point of being anywhere close to that of New York or Toronto (and I'd FAR rather have Baltimore's line up, at least they're stocked with interesting young pieces - whereas we have one.)

While I also generally speaking agree with your "deadline" and "off-season" last two points, why the confidence in Bloom doing well in those two situations. He absolutely failed last trade deadline (when we could have added at least varying levels of "something" to the farm system for Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill and Martinez the way we did for Vazquez) and his off-season so far this year have shown very little toward building for the future.

If we'd traded all those pieces mentioned above mid season last year AND were discussing the prospect returns we'd just gotten for Devers (because we won't sign him to a market value extension) and Verdugo, I'd agree.

My issue with Bloom is that he is apparently here for a multi year rebuild, had the chance to move some valuable pieces at the deadline in a lost year and instead chose not to. I just find no reasonable defense for that.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Pollock and Turner would elevate the lineup against lefties quite a bit-- if they aren't washed up.

Turner is old, but had a 116 OPS+ (278/350/438) last year and played 66 games at third, so he should be able to play there sometimes to let Devers DH or to cover for rest/short term injuries. He's played some first base, though not much and not recently. We've thrown Franchy and Schwarber there in recent years, so we probably could play him there too as a backup to Casas. He'd basically be upgrading Dalbec's role if he came here.

Pollock will be 35 and was bad last year, but still crushed lefties-- .935 OPS in 133 PA. He played 37 games in CF, but was mostly a LF. Steamer projects him to have a .730 OPS with 17 HR in 500 PA.

I doubt we'll sign both, but either would help balance the lineup.

 

[chawson]

I think the Yoshida signing is indicative of a forthcoming Verdugo deal. Not sure who they'd be targeting, presumably a RHH. They could definitely use a RF/RHH that can play defense. I'm not seeing that guy in their system closer than Bleis and he's a good 3-4 years away.

Yep, I'm hoping this is the next move and I'm excited for it. I don't think Bloom would have sealed the deal on Yoshida so quickly unless something like this was in place. (There's no way Bloom values Yoshida as a 5/$90M player as a strictly DH, and Verdugo's on-field value takes quite a hit in right field.)

Some deals that make sense to me include:

MIA gets: Verdugo, Hosmer, Wong
BOS gets: Avisail García, Rogers or López, Stallings

MIL gets: Verdugo, Arroyo
BOS gets: Yelich (+ cash), Adames, Lauer

PHI gets: Verdugo
BOS gets: Hoskins

 

[RedOctober3829]

I am trying to get my head around this. Unless the Red Sox think LHH are the new market inefficiency, this lineup is terrible. I am not sure how they expect to score 700 runs. This is the worst line up since 2014. Using early 2023 ZIPs outside of Yoshida

Masatoka Yoshida - L .300/.355/.455 (This is tough to look at a decent project, HRs are the thing that don't carry over.)
Alex Verdugo - L - .295/.340/.445
Trevor Story - R - .255/.325/.465
Rafael Devers - L - .290/.355/.535
Triston Casas - L - .255/.355/.440
Kike Hernandez - R - ..250/.325/.415
Eric Hosmer - L - .285/.340/.430
Reese McGuire - L - .265/.315/.365
Christian Arroyo - R - .265/.315/.425

Connor Wong, Rob Refsnyder, Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran/Pick Up

That line up is terrible and will get murdered by LHP. I don't think there is anything available in FA that is going to help them at this point.

My assertion in other threads that the Red Sox are the 5th most talented team in the division is true. This lineup is putrid and would not have been that much better even with Xander Bogaerts in it. They need 2 right handed middle of the order type bats. Where are those coming from?

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Understood on the off-season, but there is very little left on the FA market in terms of "mid tier talent" that would reasonably be expected to improve the offense to the point of being anywhere close to that of New York or Toronto (and I'd FAR rather have Baltimore's line up, at least they're stocked with interesting young pieces - whereas we have one.)

While I also generally speaking agree with your "deadline" and "off-season" last two points, why the confidence in Bloom doing well in those two situations. He absolutely failed last trade deadline (when we could have added at least varying levels of "something" to the farm system for Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill and Martinez the way we did for Vazquez) and his off-season so far this year have shown very little toward building for the future.

If we'd traded all those pieces mentioned above mid season last year AND were discussing the prospect returns we'd just gotten for Devers (because we won't sign him to a market value extension) and Verdugo, I'd agree.

My issue with Bloom is that he is apparently here for a multi year rebuild, had the chance to move some valuable pieces at the deadline in a lost year and instead chose not to. I just find no reasonable defense for that.

Xander had a no-trade clause and didn't want to go anywhere. He should be completely left out of any discussion of last year's deadline.

The others wouldn't have brought back that much, and just dumping them would have been bailing on the season when we were 2 games out of the wild card right before Sale was going to come back. It didn't work out, but it was justifiable at the time. I can only imagine the response from the fans and the media if we had blown it up in that situation.

As for next year, Pollock and Turner would elevate the lineup against lefties quite a bit-- if they aren't washed up.

Turner is old, but had a 116 OPS+ (278/350/438) last year and played 66 games at third, so he should be able to play there sometimes to let Devers DH or to cover for rest/short term injuries. He's played some first base, though not much and not recently. We've thrown Franchy and Schwarber there in recent years, so we probably could play him there too as a backup to Casas. He'd basically be upgrading Dalbec's role as a part-time DH and 3B and backup 1B if he came here.

Pollock will be 35 and was bad last year, but still crushed lefties-- .935 OPS in 133 PA. He played 37 games in CF, but was mostly a LF. Steamer projects him to have a .730 OPS with 17 HR in 500 PA.

I doubt we'll sign both, but either would help balance the lineup.

 

[nvalvo]

We can’t judge this team because:

The offseason’s not over yet <— you are here
Teams don’t win games on paper
Teams don’t miss the playoffs in April
Let’s see where they are at the All Star Break
The roster will be very different after the trade deadline
This is a multi-year rebuild, give Bloom the off-season to show what he can do

I get what you're saying here, but I don't think it's accurate.

Most of us in the non-pitchforks camp have been saying for months (years?) that the 2023 offseason (<-- you are here) is when we need to start seeing the credible framework of a contending team, and the 2024-25 seasons is when it's really time to start seeing RESULTS.

This lineup isn't "the credible framework of a contending team," I agree. After the Bogaerts disappointment, Correa is one possibility, but probably not a great one. I think we're likely looking at a series of trades; I guess I doubt that Arroyo, Hosmer, and Verdugo will all be on the Opening Day roster, and I actually sort of doubt any of them will.

(Since I know I'm about to be accused of goalpost moving, here I am saying the same thing in October in the Bloom evaluation thread. I doubt that's the only time I've made that point, but I stopped looking after I found that one.)

So I'd still say that Bloom needs to get this team into a wildcard spot in 2023 and needs have us set up to be legit division/title contenders in 2024-25. But if things go badly in 2023, I think Bloom's job will be at risk, and depending on why they went badly, probably rightly so.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Xander had a no-trade clause and didn't want to go anywhere. He should be completely left out of any discussion of last year's deadline.

The others wouldn't have brought back that much, and just dumping them would have been bailing on the season when we were 2 games out of the wild card right before Sale was going to come back. It didn't work out, but it was justifiable at the time. I can only imagine the response from the fans and the media if we had blown it up in that situation.

As for next year, Pollock and Turner would elevate the lineup against lefties quite a bit-- if they aren't washed up.

Turner is old, but had a 116 OPS+ (278/350/438) last year and played 66 games at third, so he should be able to play there sometimes to let Devers DH or to cover for rest/short term injuries. He's played some first base, though not much and not recently. We've thrown Franchy and Schwarber there in recent years, so we probably could play him there too as a backup to Casas. He'd basically be upgrading Dalbec's role as a part-time DH and 3B and backup 1B if he came here.

Pollock will be 35 and was bad last year, but still crushed lefties-- .935 OPS in 133 PA. He played 37 games in CF, but was mostly a LF. Steamer projects him to have a .730 OPS with 17 HR in 500 PA.

I doubt we'll sign both, but either would help balance the lineup.

Genuinely, thank you; I did not know that, and hadn't seen it mentioned in the discussion of the Bogaerts going to San Diego thread - granted it is depressing enough that I don't want to read all of it. Rest assured I won't mention it again though, unless it's to share that with someone else (like me) whom didn't know this from his last contract details.

I think bailing on the season and where we are right now will receive the same level of scorn from the fans, personally. That is however just an opinion with no factual basis to it at all.

I just firmly believe that with about $40m left to spend this year (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/) and the highly likely need to improve at SS or 2b, DH or OF and needing probably two SPs, it's going to be tough to see where enough improvements to make a 78-84 last place team that has lost two of it's best hitters and it's only two above average starting pitchers into even a wild card contender is going to come from.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

I don't see the point of Pollock on a team that already has Refsnyder. Not to mention that Pollock presumably has no interest in signing a cheap deal to be a part-time player, given that he turned down a $13 million option for 2023 to stay with the White Sox. I assume he's looking for a full-time job.

Turner is about the same as JD Martinez: old and visibly breaking down, and the stretches of futility are getting longer and outpacing the stretches of production. At the very least he can stand at third base, and he's a more reliable hitter than Dalbec. But the upside is pretty low at this point and the floor keeps sinking. For one year at like $10–12 million? Sure, whatever. I just wouldn't bet on anything better than a 100–110 OPS+ and like 1–2 WAR. And the injury history for both him and Pollock is not a good one; you'd need to have depth ready to take their places when they inevitably end up missing a month with a strain or a pulled hammy, and depth is a real problem for this roster right now.

Were it up to me, I'd take a long look at Nelson Cruz. I know he struggled last year, but part of that was an eye/vision problem that he got fixed after the season. He'll almost certainly take a one-year deal, and with $3 million already on hand thanks to the Nationals buying out his 2023 option, he can probably be had for $10 million. Instant right-handed power for not much price, and if he ends up being washed, so be it. Or maybe they could create a DH/corner OF platoon out of Brantley and Duvall or McCutchen, or bring in Voit as a right-handed DH and 1B backup.

I wonder what Jurickson Profar is looking for, because he'd be a good fit overall. A switch-hitter who can play the corner outfield and the middle infield (albeit none of them particularly well), has run a walk rate over 11% the last two years, makes a lot of contact but isn't a hacker. I think he's a better bench piece than regular, but that versatility would be helpful on a team that lacks it.

Anyway, there are options, but they're all pretty low ceiling (with the possible exception of Cruz). This is the problem with avoiding the top of the market.

 

[jbupstate]

The Sox finished 4th in the AL with 735 runs. Lost 160 total with Xander and JDM.

Offense doesn’t look great on paper now but hopefully they should see backfills and improvement in the following -

- healthier Story and Kike and Devers
- added new SS or 2B (if Story moves over)
- replacement of the almost 1,000 at bats to Dalbec, JBJ, Franchy and Plawecki with Yoshida and Casas

Still not a juggernaut but last year when healthy the lineup was not horrible (and Xander and JDM were not killing it)

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Cruz seems like an odd fit for a fan base that grew sick of JD Martinez. He turns 43 this year, I’d pass. Profar is interesting but seems like another Hernandez; I think the team really needs someone with more power. What about signing Turner and Conforto, and moving Verdugo and Dalbec?

 

[KillerBs]

If we assume 13 position players, and Story cant play SS, the dance card is full as follows:

McGuire, Wong
Casas, Dalbec
Story
Devers
SS TBD
Arroyo
Yoshida,
Kike
Verdugo
Refsnyder
Hosmer

Substitute Pollock (or Wil Myers?) for Hosmer, and that allows you to DH Yoshida, especially on the road, and play Verdugo in LF a bit more, overall improve OF defense, which looms as a real concern. Is Refsnyder a plausible back up CFer? I keep thinking Dalbec is pretty good fit on this team, as a short side complement to Casas and to let Devers DH here and there vs lefties but surely you cant roll with 3 1Bs on the roster. What happens with the Hosmer/Dalbec dilemma will be interesting.

Also intrigued by whether there may be a deal be done with the Marlins especially for Miguel Rojas, but also maybe Jesus Sanchez or Avisail or Soler? Not sure what we have to offer back, or if Marlins interested in Hosmer/Dalbec but I certainly not inclined to move Houck for these likes.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Xander had a no-trade clause and didn't want to go anywhere. He should be completely left out of any discussion of last year's deadline.

The others wouldn't have brought back that much, and just dumping them would have been bailing on the season when we were 2 games out of the wild card right before Sale was going to come back. It didn't work out, but it was justifiable at the time. I can only imagine the response from the fans and the media if we had blown it up in that situation.

As for next year, Pollock and Turner would elevate the lineup against lefties quite a bit-- if they aren't washed up.

Turner is old, but had a 116 OPS+ (278/350/438) last year and played 66 games at third, so he should be able to play there sometimes to let Devers DH or to cover for rest/short term injuries. He's played some first base, though not much and not recently. We've thrown Franchy and Schwarber there in recent years, so we probably could play him there too as a backup to Casas. He'd basically be upgrading Dalbec's role as a part-time DH and 3B and backup 1B if he came here.

Pollock will be 35 and was bad last year, but still crushed lefties-- .935 OPS in 133 PA. He played 37 games in CF, but was mostly a LF. Steamer projects him to have a .730 OPS with 17 HR in 500 PA.

I doubt we'll sign both, but either would help balance the lineup.

The Globe's article on the Xander situation yesterday said the front office also promised Bogaerts they would not trade him prior to the deadline. The no-trade clause means nothing. If the FO came to Xander and said they had a deal for him to go to a World Series caliber team, I would think he'd accept it.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

Cruz seems like an odd fit for a fan base that grew sick of JD Martinez. He turns 43 this year, I’d pass. Profar is interesting but seems like another Hernandez; I think the team really needs someone with more power. What about signing Turner and Conforto, and moving Verdugo and Dalbec?

Pardon my ignorance, but is there anything in particular fans grew sick of with JD beyond his general slowdown offensively? I understand that he offered zero defensive versatility, but I don't see why that would rub folks the wrong way so long as you can hit. If Cruz hits, he'll be cheered, same as anyone else. Besides, the top of the DH depth chart right now is ... Hosmer? Refsnyder? The backup catcher? They have to add *someone* there, and Cruz is probably the best pure DH on the market.

Conforto would be fine and probably has the most upside of any non-Swanson/Correa FA hitter still left but is a terrifying proposition coming off a serious shoulder injury and a whole year off the field. Maybe he wants a one-year pillow deal to reset his market for next winter, but I'd wager he and Boras are looking for something closer to what Cody Bellinger got from the Cubs ($17.5 million).

 

[KillerBs]

I think as things stand now Yoshida would be the de facto DH vs LHPers, with Refsnyder in RF and Verdugo in LF. Arroyo would be in the mixt here too. Could be worse.

I wonder if Arroyo or Refsnyder are candidates to get moved as they are both pretty similar and valuable players.

On Nelson Cruz, he slugged .263 in his last approx 200 ABs, so i would rather not go down that road.

 

[BravesField]

There's no protection in the line up for Devers. Who in their right mind would pitch to that guy. Not a good scenario for Devers to be in during his walk year. If the Sox don't get another big bat in the line up, I can see Devers asking to be traded.

 

[8slim]

I think as things stand now Yoshida would be the de facto DH vs LHPers, with Refsnyder in RF and Verdugo in LF. Arroyo would be in the mixt here too. Could be worse.

Could it? Be worse? For a team that's claiming that they want to compete for the playoffs?

IMHO that combo is somewhere between mediocre and terrible. I can't believe some folks are OK with Refsnyder getting meaningful PAs in '23. I'm glad he had a nice little run last season. But he's 32 and has an entire career of being a terrible hitter. If he has 150 PAs with an OPS of .550 in June and someone says "well, who could have seen this kind of regression coming?" I'm saying right now that I did.

And Arroyo will be hurt because that's what he does. Every year. When he's not hurt he's... fine. Mediocre. League average. At best.

I know we can't run 9 All-Stars out there but fielding a lineup that's 2/3rds replacement-level dreck seems suboptimal.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I know we can't run 9 All-Stars out there but fielding a lineup that's 2/3rds replacement-level dreck seems suboptimal.

Replacement-Level Dreck should a fantasy team name

 

[TheYellowDart5]

For what it's worth with Refsnyder, I think there's a good chance his success sticks to a certain degree thanks to a swing change that has him making better contact. If nothing else, he showed he can be a force against lefties, and there's definitely room on this roster for that. He shouldn't be a regular or anything close to it, but he's an ideal platoon bat in the corner OF.

 

[8slim]

Replacement-Level Dreck should a fantasy team name

Or maybe I just stumbled upon the 2023 Sox marketing slogan!

 

[Benj4ever]

I think there's an argument to be made that the Sox should extend Devers, spend some money on a couple of bats and a quality SP, and then acquire a stopgap like Iglesias or Nick Ahmed to provide quality SS defense until Mayer arrives. Beats the hell out of giving 10+ years to Swanson or Correa.

That sounds like a plan. Honestly, the World Series Champion Houston Astros highest contract is Altuve, at 7/163.5. Most of the WS champions over the last 10 years have not been big market spenders, but, rather, the guys who build with young, controllable talent, then fill in the gaps in trades and free agency. Bloom is right on the money.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Most of the WS champions over the last 10 years have not been big market spenders ...

2013 Red Sox, fourth-highest payroll
2014 Giants, seventh-highest payroll
2015 Royals, 17th-highest payroll
2016 Cubs, sixth-highest payroll
2017 Astros, 17th-highest payroll
2018 Red Sox, First in payroll
2019 Nationals, seventh-highest payroll
2020 Dodgers, third-highest payroll
2021 Braves, 10th-highest payroll
2022 Astros, eighth-highest payroll

Twice in the past 10 years have teams outside the Top 10 in payroll won the World Series

Data: BaseballCube/SporTrac

 

[BaseballJones]

2013 Red Sox, fourth-highest payroll
2014 Giants, seventh-highest payroll
2015 Royals, 17th-highest payroll
2016 Cubs, sixth-highest payroll
2017 Astros, 17th-highest payroll
2018 Red Sox, First in payroll
2019 Nationals, seventh-highest payroll
2020 Dodgers, third-highest payroll
2021 Braves, 10th-highest payroll
2022 Astros, eighth-highest payroll

Twice in the past 10 years have teams outside the Top 10 in payroll won the World Series

Data: BaseballCube/SporTrac

Or spin it this way. When you think of the *best* in any category, aren't you usually thinking top 10%, maybe top 15%? You aren't thinking top THIRD, right? Like when you think of the *best* quarterbacks in the NFL, you aren't thinking about the guy ranked #9. You're thinking top 3 or top 5 at the lowest.

The top 10% of MLB payrolls (30 teams) is the top 3. The top 15% of MLB payrolls is the top 4.5, so let's call it top 5 - that's really the top 16.7% of all MLB payrolls.

So of these 10 most recent WS winners, 7 were outside the top 5. Only two were in the top 3.

4, 7, 17, 6, 17, 1, 7, 3, 10, 8 = average of 8 (or top 26.7%). The median of those ten is 7 (or top 23.3%).

If you divide the 30 teams into equal-sized groups of 6, the median WS winner would be in the second group, not the first. If you divide those 30 up into deciles, the median WS winner is in the third decile.

In other words, yes you need to spend some money - you aren't finding teams with $40m payrolls winning the World Series - but you also clearly don't need to be among the biggest spenders.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Or spin it this way. When you think of the *best* in any category, aren't you usually thinking top 10%, maybe top 15%? You aren't thinking top THIRD, right? Like when you think of the *best* quarterbacks in the NFL, you aren't thinking about the guy ranked #9. You're thinking top 3 or top 5 at the lowest.

The top 10% of MLB payrolls (30 teams) is the top 3. The top 15% of MLB payrolls is the top 4.5, so let's call it top 5 - that's really the top 16.7% of all MLB payrolls.

So of these 10 most recent WS winners, 7 were outside the top 5. Only two were in the top 3.

4, 7, 17, 6, 17, 1, 7, 3, 10, 8 = average of 8 (or top 26.7%). The median of those ten is 7 (or top 23.3%).

If you divide the 30 teams into equal-sized groups of 6, the median WS winner would be in the second group, not the first. If you divide those 30 up into deciles, the median WS winner is in the third decile.

In other words, yes you need to spend some money - you aren't finding teams with $40m payrolls winning the World Series - but you also clearly don't need to be among the biggest spenders.

You're just making arbitrary decisions on how to judge "best." I was going by the parameters set by the poster, WS champions weren't "big market spenders," and noted where they fell. Have fun spinning, though