An early look at the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Maybe this becomes an going thread, maybe not.

Top carryovers:

Curt Schilling - 10th try
Roger Clemens -10th try
Barry Bonds - 10th try
Scott Rolen - 5th try
Omar Vizquel - 5th try
Billy Wagner - 7th try
Todd Helton - 4th try

Top new candidates:

Alex Rodriguez
David Ortiz
Mark Teixeira
Jimmy Rollins
Carl Crawford
Prince Fielder
Ryan Howard
Tim Lincecum
Joe Nathan
Jonathan Papelbon
Jake Peavy


i expect A-Rod and Papi will get in from this list, but maybe not in the first year, due to questions about steroids.
 

Seels

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
4,948
NH
Arod and Papi. Not sure anyone on the list of new names deserves a moment of consideration.

Rolen should be in.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,017
Imaginationland
I don't understand why Arod would get in when Clemens and Bonds have been shut out for a decade, but if it were me they'd both be in years ago (and a bunch of other guys).

Arod and Ortiz are the only new arrivals to get in at any point. Outside shot for Rollins and Teixeira, but probably not.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
15,669
I wonder if ARod being on the ballot has any effect on Clemens and Bonds. It's a weird dynamic. Ortiz seems to me like a fairly clear-cut HOFer, but there are (relatively weak IMO) steroid claims. ARod was suspended for a year for steroids, so worse than anything linked to Papi, but is clearly the superior ballplayer. So Ortiz in ARod not is a little odd. But if you put ARod in and not Bonds and Clemens that is odd too. And not Ortiz in seems really odd.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
Billy Wagner keeps trending up in voting results year after year, and he really doesn't have much of a better case than Papelbon or Nathan, so it'll be interesting to see how those 2 do next year
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
22,774
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
Maybe this becomes an going thread, maybe not.

Top carryovers:

Curt Schilling - 10th try
Roger Clemens -10th try
Barry Bonds - 10th try
Scott Rolen - 5th try
Omar Vizquel - 5th try
Billy Wagner - 7th try
Todd Helton - 4th try

Top new candidates:

Alex Rodriguez
David Ortiz
Mark Teixeira
Jimmy Rollins
Carl Crawford
Prince Fielder
Ryan Howard
Tim Lincecum
Joe Nathan
Jonathan Papelbon
Jake Peavy


i expect A-Rod and Papi will get in from this list, but maybe not in the first year, due to questions about steroids.
Ryan Howard was a guy who in year 8 of his career looked like an absolute lock. Man he fell off a cliff.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,018
Oregon
Ryan Howard was a guy who in year 8 of his career looked like an absolute lock. Man he fell off a cliff.
His 2006-2009 seasons were astounding.

Meanwhile, Tim Lincecum is likely to be only the second multiple-CYA winner eligible for the Hall not to get in
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,688
Miami (oh, Miami!)
I wonder if ARod being on the ballot has any effect on Clemens and Bonds. It's a weird dynamic. Ortiz seems to me like a fairly clear-cut HOFer, but there are (relatively weak IMO) steroid claims. ARod was suspended for a year for steroids, so worse than anything linked to Papi, but is clearly the superior ballplayer. So Ortiz in ARod not is a little odd. But if you put ARod in and not Bonds and Clemens that is odd too. And not Ortiz in seems really odd.
Arod admitted to doing PEDs while with the Rangers, but said something like he did it once and felt so bad he'd never do it again. Then he got caught doing PEDs, then fought it.

So no, he shouldn't go in.

PS - I think all three should go in if they create a PED wing. Seriously. If they come clean and do a comprehensive, "This is wrong, witness my swollen head and shrunken testicles, but I got rich while crowding clean players out of the game" sure, stick 'em in a basement exhibit next to the restrooms.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,405
Clemens and Bonds both got nearly the same percentage of the vote this year as last year, so I’m not sure there’s going to be a wave of support to usher them in next year. But who knows what the VC will do in 2023 or whatever year. Depends who’s on the committee, I guess.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,018
Oregon
Clemens and Bonds both got nearly the same percentage of the vote this year as last year, so I’m not sure there’s going to be a wave of support to usher them in next year. But who knows what the VC will do in 2023 or whatever year. Depends who’s on the committee, I guess.
Clemens always seems to get one vote less than Bonds. It's got to be the same guy, sitting there each year, saying "nope, not going to do it"
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
8,126
I'd be surprised if ARod or Ortiz get in on the first try. Looking at another empty class.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 10, 2017
5,959
His 2006-2009 seasons were astounding.

Meanwhile, Tim Lincecum is likely to be only the second multiple-CYA winner eligible for the Hall not to get in
I was cleaning out some old Nintendo Wii games to give to a friend's kid this past weekend, and MLB 2009 with Tim Lincecum on the cover was one of the games. He was an icon at his peak.

I agree about Scott Rolen, he needs to be in and based on the jump in percentages should be in a few years from now. The last year of Bonds/Clemens and first year of Papi/ARod may conspire to keep his increase minimal next year.
 

coremiller

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,846
Ryan Howard was a guy who in year 8 of his career looked like an absolute lock. Man he fell off a cliff.
He was always overrated, a guy who put up big HR/RBI numbers hitting in the middle of the lineup on a good team but didn't have the OBP or defense to be a truly top player. If you're going to be a 1B/DH type with zero defensive value, you need to be Jim Thome/Frank Thomas/Ortiz/Ramirez level with the bat and Howard was never that good. He definitely didn't deserve the 2006 MVP (when Pujols or Beltran, both superior and more complete players, should have won).

The 5/125 extension the Phillies gave him could be a first-ballot inductee in the Hall of Bad Contracts though.
 

bob burda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,549
He was always overrated, a guy who put up big HR/RBI numbers hitting in the middle of the lineup on a good team but didn't have the OBP or defense to be a truly top player. If you're going to be a 1B/DH type with zero defensive value, you need to be Jim Thome/Frank Thomas/Ortiz/Ramirez level with the bat and Howard was never that good. He definitely didn't deserve the 2006 MVP (when Pujols or Beltran, both superior and more complete players, should have won).

The 5/125 extension the Phillies gave him could be a first-ballot inductee in the Hall of Bad Contracts though.
I'm sure someone in SABR or at Baseball Prospectus etc. must have done a study on the worst MLB contracts of all time, using modern metrics for performance, and some adjustments for inflation and present value with the money. That would be a fascinating read.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,672
The steroid claims against Papi are really weak and shouldn't factor into his Hall of Fame case; but I'm biased af. He has great numbers and was an icon of the game. It's bullshit he is -21 dWAR, which keeps his bWAR at a very modest 55.

A-Rod isn't getting in, even if I would vote for him. Look at the gap between Manny and Sheffield; guys take positive tests and hold them against players more than just speculation.

Ryan Howard has a career WAR of 14.7. Kevin Youkilus has more than double that.

Papelbon did have a really good career; 368 saves, 2.44 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 1.043 WHIP. He won't get in, but his numbers are borderline.
 

santadevil

wears depends
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
6,472
Saskatchestan
Billy Wagner keeps trending up in voting results year after year, and he really doesn't have much of a better case than Papelbon or Nathan, so it'll be interesting to see how those 2 do next year
Ya, exact same except Wagner was the best of those three, which is probably why he's still on the ballot and trending up

Guy was a hell of a good pitcher on some not great teams, which is why he's overshadowed
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
Ya, exact same except Wagner was the best of those three, which is probably why he's still on the ballot and trending up

Guy was a hell of a good pitcher on some not great teams, which is why he's overshadowed
Wagner is 19th all time among RPs in JAWs with terrible postseason results, Nathan is 17th with terrible postseason results and Papelbon is 29th with great postseason results. For reference, Hoffman was 20th with mediocre postseason results. Postseason results don't mean much for an RP of course, but it's still not nothing.

But they all had similar careers and ended up with similar WARs, it would be pretty silly if Hoffman got in 3rd ballot pretty much just on save volume, Wagner is trending up and may eventually get there, and 2 very similar pitchers get no support.
 

coremiller

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
5,846
The steroid claims against Papi are really weak and shouldn't factor into his Hall of Fame case; but I'm biased af. He has great numbers and was an icon of the game. It's bullshit he is -21 dWAR, which keeps his bWAR at a very modest 55.

A-Rod isn't getting in, even if I would vote for him. Look at the gap between Manny and Sheffield; guys take positive tests and hold them against players more than just speculation.

Ryan Howard has a career WAR of 14.7. Kevin Youkilus has more than double that.

Papelbon did have a really good career; 368 saves, 2.44 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 1.043 WHIP. He won't get in, but his numbers are borderline.
Ortiz's -21 dWAR is almost all positional adjustment because he played so few actual innings in the field. He was only -16 runs below average based on his actual fielding over his career, but he only played only 2162 innings in the field, about 240 games' worth. The positional adjustment, mostly for DH, costs him -204 runs.

I think that's fair. There should be a DH penalty. The replacement level for DHs is super-high since there's no fielding requirement, and DH occupies a lineup spot that forces other weak defenders to play the field to get into the lineup. It's proper to punish DHs as if they were a terrible 1B/LF.
 

santadevil

wears depends
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
6,472
Saskatchestan
Wagner is 19th all time among RPs in JAWs with terrible postseason results, Nathan is 17th with terrible postseason results and Papelbon is 29th with great postseason results. For reference, Hoffman was 20th with mediocre postseason results. Postseason results don't mean much for an RP of course, but it's still not nothing.

But they all had similar careers and ended up with similar WARs, it would be pretty silly if Hoffman got in 3rd ballot pretty much just on save volume, Wagner is trending up and may eventually get there, and 2 very similar pitchers get no support.
I'm going to disagree about Paplebon, mostly because of his lack of longevity and low IP. He was good, but he couldn't sustain it and was out of the game after 10 seasons at age 35, so he's out altogether. Great career ERA+ at 177

When Hoffman retired, he was the all time saves leader (to be passed by Mo). Hoffman also pitched for 18 seasons (1,089.1 IP) until he was 42 and accumulated rate stats (saves) do hold water for voters. Lowest ERA+ of the four at 141

Nathan, missed 2 full MLB seasons, but still tallied 16 overall. He had the longevity, but his first two seasons were as a mediocre starter and accounted for about 20% of his overall IP. He was really good, but not elite. Career ERA of 2.87 not amazing and ERA+ of 151, again, both good, but not elite.

Wagner slightly less innings than Nathan (903.0 vs 923.1), but pitched in more games (853 vs 787). But two things really jump out at me for Wagner. Career ERA+ is 187, which tops this group and WHIP under 1.00 (0.998). And the best K/9 of the group at 11.9

Wagner was a fairly big step above Nathan and Paplebon. WAR and JAWS aren't the only things voters are looking at.

My question is, which of these four would have you wanted on your team? My order would be Wagner, Hoffman, Paplebon and Nathan
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
My question is, which of these four would have you wanted on your team? My order would be Wagner, Hoffman, Paplebon and Nathan
Hoffman would be dead last for me and really it isn't close. His 2nd full season by era+ would be Wagner's 5th best, Nathan's 7th best, and Papelbon's 5th best, he pitched forever but he wasn't really ever elite. Papelbon had the best peak of any of them in Boston, so probably him then Wagner then Nathan then Hoffman.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,199
CA
I’m really confused by posters in here thinking that Alex Rodriguez will get in next year?

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will be on their 10th try — and are exclusively being held out because of alleged steroid abuse (Clemens continues to deny and was never suspended and Bonds has continually denied and only claims to have “mistakenly” used the cream unknowingly, and was also never suspended).

Alex Rodriguez was suspended for an entire season (2014) after admitting to using PEDs, lying about it, trying to cover it up in the Biogenisis scandal, and MLB is said to have had extensive evidence that he was using, at minimum, in 2011, 2012, and 2013. All of this came after strict rules were put in place (2004) and the original Balco steroids scandal had played out (2002-03). Unless there is a sea change amongst HOF voters, I’m not sure why anyone would be anticipating Alex Rodriguez to be getting in anytime soon.

I’m not necessarily advocating for it either way — I’m fine with them all getting in at this point — it just seems so logically disjointed to me. I despised A-Rod when he played, still think he is a loser, and kind of hate that he has re-worked his image on TV (and with J-Lo), but the guy is a definite Hall of Famer regardless of PEDs.
 

OurF'ingCity

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 22, 2016
8,469
New York City
Manny not even making the "top holdovers" list is a travesty
Yep. Manny is an easy Hall-of-Famer if you are just looking at his numbers - he's top-10 all-time in JAWS for left fielders and virtually everyone close to him (above or below) in that range is in the Hall. I guess you could argue that he never really dominated the league or was really ever the best player at any given time, but he was so consistently good offensively for so long that I think that makes up for it - he was an all-star every single year he was on the Red Sox.

And even if you care about steroid suspensions (I don't), those came at the tail end of his career when he wasn't producing much value anyway. (He was also on the 2003 list, but we all know there were numerous false positives and other issues with that list, and if he was a habitual user it doesn't really make sense that he never tested positive prior to 2009.)
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,017
Imaginationland
Yep. Manny is an easy Hall-of-Famer if you are just looking at his numbers - he's top-10 all-time in JAWS for left fielders and virtually everyone close to him (above or below) in that range is in the Hall. I guess you could argue that he never really dominated the league or was really ever the best player at any given time, but he was so consistently good offensively for so long that I think that makes up for it - he was an all-star every single year he was on the Red Sox.

And even if you care about steroid suspensions (I don't), those came at the tail end of his career when he wasn't producing much value anyway. (He was also on the 2003 list, but we all know there were numerous false positives and other issues with that list, and if he was a habitual user it doesn't really make sense that he never tested positive prior to 2009.)
I don't care at all about the steroids, but this is not true. In 2008 he had a monster year in Boston/LA, with a line of .332/.430/.601 in 153 games. He was absolutely incredible after the trade to the Dodgers, putting up 3.5 bWAR in just 53 games. That he tested positive the following season is pretty damning.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,688
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Ortiz's -21 dWAR is almost all positional adjustment because he played so few actual innings in the field. He was only -16 runs below average based on his actual fielding over his career, but he only played only 2162 innings in the field, about 240 games' worth. The positional adjustment, mostly for DH, costs him -204 runs.

I think that's fair. There should be a DH penalty. The replacement level for DHs is super-high since there's no fielding requirement, and DH occupies a lineup spot that forces other weak defenders to play the field to get into the lineup. It's proper to punish DHs as if they were a terrible 1B/LF.
I reach the opposite conclusion. The DH is part of the rules; it replaces terrible hitting pitchers with a better bat. The DH cannot field. As such, it should be judged on its own terms. There are eh DHs, good DHs relative to their peers, and transcendent/epic/legendary DHs. E.g., Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz.

Penalizing them for not fielding is like penalizing pitchers for not hitting or having a low fielding WAR, or judging catchers only by the amount of hit balls they field.
 

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2007
17,178
Washington
I think it is more like penalizing relief pitchers who are not quite good enough to be starters. A higher bar is fine.

Ortiz will get in because he was an elite DH. It may not be the first ballot, but could easily be.
 

santadevil

wears depends
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
6,472
Saskatchestan
Hoffman would be dead last for me and really it isn't close. His 2nd full season by era+ would be Wagner's 5th best, Nathan's 7th best, and Papelbon's 5th best, he pitched forever but he wasn't really ever elite. Papelbon had the best peak of any of them in Boston, so probably him then Wagner then Nathan then Hoffman.
For me, I'd take 18 years of really good from Hoffman, over the 10 years the league got from Papelbon
 

mauidano

Mai Tais for everyone!
SoSH Member
Aug 21, 2006
35,627
Maui
A-Rod will NEVER make it. Not even down the road with the Veterans Committee. He is the Poster Child for PED use. The lying and suspension keep him out. Fuck him and his arrogance.

Papi is in but it will probably be close. He was allegedly but never truly caught nor admitted as clearly explained above. He is an icon and absolutely deserves it. Clemens needs to be in, he got tied in with Pettite at the wrong time and wrong place. Everyone else is on the bubble.
 

mauidano

Mai Tais for everyone!
SoSH Member
Aug 21, 2006
35,627
Maui
He's gonna get his wish. His vote total will be embarrassingly low next year. Putting all his chips in with the Veterans Committee in a few years. Fuck him. I'm done with him after yesterday's manifesto.
 

Gdiguy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
6,231
San Diego, CA
Next year will be interesting with A-Rod just from the perspective of 'at what point does it become ridiculous that the top X in terms of on-field baseball results are all voted down'

I can understand those that don't want to vote for Manny/A-Rod (more than Bonds/Clemens), and definitely agree with the not voting for Schilling, but like for 2022 - by WAR the top 4 are

Bonds
Clemens
A-Rod
Schilling
(Rolen, Jones)
Manny (7th)

So the top 4 and 5 of the top 7 by on-field performance are kept out of the HoF for steroid/being an asshole reasons... that's starting to get a bit crazy

*edit I'll admit though that I'm more of a 'the HoF is a museum of the best baseball players' guy and not a 'these are the heroes we want people to emulate' one
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
I’m really confused by posters in here thinking that Alex Rodriguez will get in next year?

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will be on their 10th try — and are exclusively being held out because of alleged steroid abuse (Clemens continues to deny and was never suspended and Bonds has continually denied and only claims to have “mistakenly” used the cream unknowingly, and was also never suspended).

Alex Rodriguez was suspended for an entire season (2014) after admitting to using PEDs, lying about it, trying to cover it up in the Biogenisis scandal, and MLB is said to have had extensive evidence that he was using, at minimum, in 2011, 2012, and 2013. All of this came after strict rules were put in place (2004) and the original Balco steroids scandal had played out (2002-03). Unless there is a sea change amongst HOF voters, I’m not sure why anyone would be anticipating Alex Rodriguez to be getting in anytime soon.

I’m not necessarily advocating for it either way — I’m fine with them all getting in at this point — it just seems so logically disjointed to me. I despised A-Rod when he played, still think he is a loser, and kind of hate that he has re-worked his image on TV (and with J-Lo), but the guy is a definite Hall of Famer regardless of PEDs.
Moreover, as great as A-Rod was (and he was), he's not as great as either Clemens or Bonds.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,878
Boston, MA
Next year will be interesting with A-Rod just from the perspective of 'at what point does it become ridiculous that the top X in terms of on-field baseball results are all voted down'

I can understand those that don't want to vote for Manny/A-Rod (more than Bonds/Clemens), and definitely agree with the not voting for Schilling, but like for 2022 - by WAR the top 4 are

Bonds
Clemens
A-Rod
Schilling
(Rolen, Jones)
Manny (7th)

So the top 4 and 5 of the top 7 by on-field performance are kept out of the HoF for steroid/being an asshole reasons... that's starting to get a bit crazy

*edit I'll admit though that I'm more of a 'the HoF is a museum of the best baseball players' guy and not a 'these are the heroes we want people to emulate' one
All of those guys are still in the museum part, just like Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe. They just don't have plaques in that one room.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
The HOF-level players in next year's class are, IMO:

Elite Level
Bonds
Clemens
Rodriguez

HOF level
Ortiz
Schilling

Really close but IMO falls just a bit short
Rolen
Teixeira

Really good player, but no
Vizquel
Wagner
Helton
Fielder
Nathan

Stop already
Peavy
Rollins
Crawford
Lincecum
Howard
 

OurF'ingCity

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 22, 2016
8,469
New York City
A-Rod will NEVER make it. Not even down the road with the Veterans Committee. He is the Poster Child for PED use. The lying and suspension keep him out. Fuck him and his arrogance.

Papi is in but it will probably be close. He was allegedly but never truly caught nor admitted as clearly explained above. He is an icon and absolutely deserves it. Clemens needs to be in, he got tied in with Pettite at the wrong time and wrong place. Everyone else is on the bubble.
I would be willing to bet quite a lot of money that A-Rod eventually gets in via Veterans Committee (assuming the hall doesn't at some point transition to some totally new approach to induction). There is going to be a time - maybe 5 years down the road, maybe 10 - when people finally accept that it's dumb to keep out steroid users for that reason alone, just as it would be dumb to keep out spitball pitchers or whatever.
 

Sandwich Pick

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2017
701
The 5/125 extension the Phillies gave him could be a first-ballot inductee in the Hall of Bad Contracts though.
It would have been bearable if he hadn't blown out his Achilles on the last play of the Phillies season. A gradual decline turned into him falling off a cliff.

If Amaro hadn't given him that contract, he would have been a Free Agent after 2011, coming off a torn Achilles with a declining skill set. Phillies history may have been forever altered.