Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

[PedroKsBambino]

I'd say the closest comps to JT are: Paul George, Grant Hill, and Chris Mullin (he made it as all-NBA one year as a F). Mullin has the reputation of being a better shooter and maybe Grant Hill is better all-around that JT but to me, there's no reason why JT couldn't come close enough to one of these three to be all-NBA.

Those three certainly are near top of the list. George was an elite defender but rest of his game is quite similar and he was (in my view) not as dynamic offensively as playoff Tatum. Hill is a tougher comp--he was elite defensively and as a playmaker, I doubt Tatum catches him in peak value----but also hope he greatly exceeds him in durability! Mullin really only made one, and he's a reasonable comp....much less defensive impact than Tatum.

My point is not at all to doubt Tatum, who I do believe will make a couple all-NBA teams it is just to demonstrate that reggie cleveland's point on top-5 guys is a pretty good one to consider as we project Tatum forward.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Tatum's Career EFG%, not even adjusted .523.

League average during that time: .525.

last year: Tatum .527, league .529.

Granted that doesn't take FT into the equation. That still surprises me, a lot.



Edit: Dirks 1st year in the NBA, the league average EFG% was .466. In his last season, the league average was .524. That's 21 years. WOW. That blows my mind.

Doesn't surprise me at all.

Dee Brown led the leage in 3PM in 98-99 with 135. Harden hit 378 in 19-20. Different game. You should watch the 1981 finals some time.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Fair. But not all assists are equal. Swinging the ball on the perimeter to the open guy who drains a three is not the same level of difficulty as the guy who can dish off to an open cutter while driving.

The point I was attempting to make was that if Tatum can become a better passer while driving, then it will make him a much bigger threat at the end of the game with the ball in his hands.

Not all assists are equal but even in generic terms, a jump from 2 assists to 5 assists is huge. It would be hard to do without improving a bit.


Oddly enough, I think Jaylen Brown has a better chance of becoming a top 5 player in the league than Tatum but I don't think he's very likely to get there at all. I think Tatum is far more likely to be a top 10 player than Brown and will probably be a top 10 player by years end. He's already in the conversation for some people.

It's funny, because someone one here called Jaylen a 20/7/3 type guy and I made it a point he wasn't even close to being a 3 type guy. In the first 3 games this year, he's had 4, 3, 4. 11 assists to 4 TO. 19.5% assist rate, 5.5% TO rate, 30.0% usage. It's 3 games but I love what I've seen in those 3 games. Last year, he was at 9.7%, 11.2% and 24.3%. Tatum this year is 14.7%, 12.1, and 33.2%. Last year, 14.5%, 10.2%, 28.6%. Really high usage for Brown and Tatum this year. Brown has responded, Tatum has stayed mostly flat. Again, it's 3 games.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Doesn't surprise me at all.

Dee Brown led the leage in 3PM in 98-99 with 135. Harden hit 378 in 19-20. Different game. You should watch the 1981 finals some time.

This is part of why simply pulling a single stat, not adjusted for era, is at best misleading and much more likely nearly meaningless. The analytics revolution has changed the shots that are taken, and this has increased overall eFG% significantly. We can really only compare players to their peers effectively, because saying "would James Harden have still taken 378 threes in 98-99 is so contrary to the game as played then" It is likely more useful to compare the raw % than eFG% when comparing across eras, though that has its own limitations as well.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Doesn't surprise me at all.

Dee Brown led the leage in 3PM in 98-99 with 135. Harden hit 378 in 19-20. Different game. You should watch the 1981 finals some time.

I know it's a completely different game, I just never paid that close to the numbers. Hell, in Tatum's Career the league average EFG% has raised from .521 to .529. This year it's currently at .530. That's 3(4) years.

Using TS%, Tatum is at .565 for his career, league .561. Dirk was .577, league was .534. At the start of Dirk's career, the league average TS% was .511. At the end, .560.


So to date, Tatum hasn't really been all that more efficient shooting than a league average player.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Jaylen for reference
EFG%: .536, league .523
TS%: .561, league .559.

His TS% last year was .583. I only mention this because last year he hit 72.4% of his FT. The previous 3 years he hit 65.8%.

 

[mcpickl]

Yeah, he will never be Giannis, Lebron, Shaq level freak athlete.

Offensively he can be Kawhi (possibly better) but not defensively...so, not quite a fit there either.

Interesting to ask the top-5 guy in his athletic tier. Bird is the obvious one, but Tatum can’t touch his passing. Honestly, no one really comes to mind...there’s guys whose passing (Luka) or defense (Kawhi) are other worldly and guys like Steph Curry whose shooting is but for all his great traits nine are at that level

Look at wings who made all nba...there really isn’t a guy like Tatum historically. http://www.espn.com/nba/history/awards/_/id/44

Durant and Dirk are probably the closest comps. Both bigger defensively, though not better. But both better shooters to date.

For me, I think his comps are on the lower end, Carmelo Anthony with more range and defensive ability

On the high end, Kobe Bryant with more range and less of a maniacal attitude(in a good, and bad, way)

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

For me, I think his comps are on the lower end, Carmelo Anthony with more range and defensive ability

On the high end, Kobe Bryant with more range and less of a maniacal attitude(in a good, and bad, way)

Carmelo with more range and defensive ability is an incredible player, to be fair.

 

[mcpickl]

Carmelo with more range and defensive ability is an incredible player, to be fair.

Absolutely. Nothing unfair about it. Tatum is already an incredible player, while still having room to grow.

 

[TripleOT]

Fair. But not all assists are equal. Swinging the ball on the perimeter to the open guy who drains a three is not the same level of difficulty as the guy who can dish off to an open cutter while driving.

The point I was attempting to make was that if Tatum can become a better passer while driving, then it will make him a much bigger threat at the end of the game with the ball in his hands.

You are correct, Tatum just drove in the first quarter at Indy, and after the big came over, smartly laid it down to TT for a layin. That needs to be a big part of his game.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

This is part of why simply pulling a single stat, not adjusted for era, is at best misleading and much more likely nearly meaningless. The analytics revolution has changed the shots that are taken, and this has increased overall eFG% significantly. We can really only compare players to their peers effectively, because saying "would James Harden have still taken 378 threes in 98-99 is so contrary to the game as played then" It is likely more useful to compare the raw % than eFG% when comparing across eras, though that has its own limitations as well.

It's a good conversation, with useful context, but it should be noted that Tatum is going to suffer by comparison of his ages 19, 20, and 21 season TS% average to Dirk and KD's career averages. TS% is typically the worst during the player’s first couple of seasons- KD’s first four years were the four worst of his career, after that is when he really went nuclear; and Dirk didn't really show Dirkesque efficiency until his third year in the league. Holds for Paul George too- his first four years were his four worst TS%. I don't think Tatum's quite at the KD/Dirk level as shooters, but not only are we comparing him to two of the best shooters ever, we’re comparing his first three years to data sets that include the GOATs’s primes. If he shows a similar growth curve, he can settle in somewhere around a 60 TS% for his prime.

I'd also just add that while I get the point of the "lack of elite athleticism or transcendent skill" as a potential limit to his ability to be in the MVP-level conversation, I do think a case can be made that his team defense is his transcendent skill. Simply put, the advanced stats for his defensive impact are unprecedented for someone his age who isn't an offensive black-hole big. Those advanced stats (D-PIPM, DRPM, D-RAPM, D-RAPTOR, D-LEBRON, to name some) have been consistent across his three years, and consistently excellent. I'm certainly biased, but I think that aligns with a general eye-test consensus from people who study the game, and if you check the game threads from his rookie year, a lot of us were marveling at his defensive precociousness before the stats started to confirm it. It's not something that immediately pops to the casual fan, because his defense on-ball is pretty average, but getting excellent team defense from the nail position is simply incredibly impactful in today's game because it affects every action in the halfcourt set

All that said, it's really hard to do both- to be an efficient, high-volume alpha scorer and to impact the game on an All-NBA type level on defense. Lebron, Kawhi and KD have all done it for meaningful stretches, but even they fade on one end or the other (usually D) from season to season because it's exhausting to sustain that level of effort.

 

[benhogan]

It's a good conversation, with useful context, but it should be noted that Tatum is going to suffer by comparison of his ages 19, 20, and 21 season TS% average to Dirk and KD's career averages. TS% is typically the worst during the player’s first couple of seasons- KD’s first four years were the four worst of his career, after that is when he really went nuclear; and Dirk didn't really show Dirkesque efficiency until his third year in the league. Holds for Paul George too- his first four years were his four worst TS%. I don't think Tatum's quite at the KD/Dirk level as shooters, but not only are we comparing him to two of the best shooters ever, we’re comparing his first three years to data sets that include the GOATs’s primes. If he shows a similar growth curve, he can settle in somewhere around a 60 TS% for his prime.

I'd also just add that while I get the point of the "lack of elite athleticism or transcendent skill" as a potential limit to his ability to be in the MVP-level conversation, I do think a case can be made that his team defense is his transcendent skill. Simply put, the advanced stats for his defensive impact are unprecedented for someone his age who isn't an offensive black-hole big. Those advanced stats (D-PIPM, DRPM, D-RAPM, D-RAPTOR, D-LEBRON, to name some) have been consistent across his three years, and consistently excellent. I'm certainly biased, but I think that aligns with a general eye-test consensus from people who study the game, and if you check the game threads from his rookie year, a lot of us were marveling at his defensive precociousness before the stats started to confirm it. It's not something that immediately pops to the casual fan, because his defense on-ball is pretty average, but getting excellent team defense from the nail position is simply incredibly impactful in today's game because it affects every action in the halfcourt set

All that said, it's really hard to do both- to be an efficient, high-volume alpha scorer and to impact the game on an All-NBA type level on defense. Lebron, Kawhi and KD have all done it for meaningful stretches, but even they fade on one end or the other (usually D) from season to season because it's exhausting to sustain that level of effort.

excellent post DD. His defense (and defense in general) is underrated by the NBA media.

His private coaching, work ethic, and lean physique are worth a lot in my book. So he can't jump out of the gym, like Zion, big deal, he gets where he needs to on the floor. Less stress on the knees/ankles as far as I'm concerned. JT will eventually get better at finishing at the rim, he struggled at the beginning of last season also.

He played 40 minutes tonight and just got it going at the end. I suspect he's the type of player that can play big minutes and not be bothered. Lets' see how many minutes he goes tomorrow, I bet he is not affected at all.

AND Its not like he runs out to LA in the offseason to go run on the beach for a photo op. He goes to St Louis, with his private coach where they review tape and work on specific details. It's easy to see him continue to make leaps since he is willing to put in focused/detailed work.

Besides being an elite defender already, I believe he will become an elite 3pt shooter and eventually be a top 5 player in 2 seasons.

 

[chilidawg]

Ten FT's for Tatum tonight, and only 3 3's. Good adjustment.

Coincidentally or not, C's were +19 with him on the court, -14 in his 8 minutes off the court.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Ten FT's for Tatum tonight, and only 3 3's. Good adjustment.

Coincidentally or not, C's were +19 with him on the court, -14 in his 8 minutes off the court.

Obviously JT is reading the thread. He went to the hole like his life depended on it. He was also disruptive on the defensive end (JB even more so).

If they can figure out what's wrong with Theis, and Teague can get some ball luck, they might go on a run.

 

[benhogan]

Obviously JT is reading the thread. He went to the hole like his life depended on it. He was also disruptive on the defensive end (JB even more so).

If they can figure out what's wrong with Theis, and Teague can get some ball luck, they might go on a run.

Theis needs to stop playing the 4 next to TT.

DT needs to go back to 15-20mpg at the 5. Rotate TT/DT/TL, based on matchups.

 

[lovegtm]

Theis needs to stop playing the 4 next to TT.

DT needs to go back to 15-20mpg at the 5. Rotate TT/DT/TL, based on matchups.

Yeah, the 2-center thing was cute I guess, but it doesn't put Theis or TT in position to succeed.

My main concern with Tatum so far is that he doesn't look comfortable getting to his step-back 3. He's adding a lot down in the post, so it's fine if he wants to keep working on that, but that 3 is his most elite offensive skill.

 

[Imbricus]

Theis needs to stop playing the 4 next to TT.

DT needs to go back to 15-20mpg at the 5. Rotate TT/DT/TL, based on matchups.

Hell yeah. Theis is not a stretch 4, what with all the three pointers he's missed already this year. More like a shrink 4. I'm looking forward to Brad figuring out the rotations better. I realize that he's been busy experimenting, but so far the rotations have been meh.

 

[benhogan]

My main concern with Tatum so far is that he doesn't look comfortable getting to his step-back 3. He's adding a lot down in the post, so it's fine if he wants to keep working on that, but that 3 is his most elite offensive skill.

Someone compared Tatum to an Ace starting pitcher that starts off games/the season slow, builds arm strength and then dominates in the 2nd half.

While not a perfect analogy, it feels something like that. He starts off most games on the slow side, builds a rhythm and then gets going by the 2nd half. And I suspect he'll build slowly this season with his step-back (side-step) 3, work out the kinks during the break on March 5-10 (maybe even before then with Hanlen). Fine-tune it. Gain confidence with it. Then start hitting it at an elite pace. Just seems the way Tatum is wired. Trial and error guy. The most important thing is Brad just lets him figure it/fine-tune it during games. So while it may be frustrating now to watch him struggle at the end of Quarters/games with it, we should be confident that by the playoffs it will be an elite skill.

 

[benhogan]

Yeah, the 2-center thing was cute I guess, but it doesn't put Theis or TT in position to succeed..

Agreed. If Theis was banging 3s from the corners every day in practice and all offseason I could see it working for specific matchups/short minutes during games.
I had Grant penciled in as Brad's corner 3pt sniper with PLUS big wing defense. But 4 games in and GW hasn't been that player yet.

IMO the corner 3 is a very important shot for the modern offense. That shot, more than any other on the floor, stretches/warps defenses into bad positions. More defenders end up in the first 2 rows completely out of the following play trying to block it. BUT you need to have a guy the defense respects from that spot to warp it. Theis probably isn't that. I still believe Grant will be that player. I'd like Brad to begin experimenting with Nesmith (10mins a night) and see if he could start drilling corner 3s to warp defenses. Barring all of that PJ Tucker at the trade deadline may be an option if Houston starts selling.

 

[Imbricus]

Did anyone else notice how frustrated Grant looked last night in his brief (5-minute) stint? I think he realizes that's he's on a really short leash right now, and may be trying to force things a little.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Cs are currently allowing an opponent EFg% of .589, which is worst in the league (by comparison, BRK and ATL are the two best at .455 and .478). Despite starting their two-big lineup, the Cs are allowing opponents to shoot .805 from 0-3 feet, which is 3rd worst (ahead of only DAL and DEN at .841 and .825, respectively).

Hopefully, this is just early season kinks to work out but by the eye test (and DRtg), Robert Williams add defensive presence the Cs sorely need even if he blows some PnR coverages.

Did anyone else notice how frustrated Grant looked last night in his brief (5-minute) stint? I think he realizes that's he's on a really short leash right now, and may be trying to force things a little.

Also by the eye test, GWill had not been good. He's not staying in front of guys like he did last year and he's getting punished by bigger players. Hopefully, he'll snap out of it.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

The Tatum bucket at 7:30 left in the 4th was a thing of beauty; made a nice and decisive move to into the lane off of a crossover, hung in the air moving to his left, and kissed it off the glass for the bucket.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The Tatum bucket at 7:30 left in the 4th was a thing of beauty; made a nice and decisive move to into the lane off of a crossover, hung in the air moving to his left, and kissed it off the glass for the bucket.

The two step-throughs were also really pretty.

JT looks unstoppable if he gets the ball at the FT line. I don't know why they don't put him there at the end of games, unless they believe it would be too easy to double-team him there.

 

[jimv]

He played 40 minutes tonight and just got it going at the end. I suspect he's the type of player that can play big minutes and not be bothered. Lets' see how many minutes he goes tomorrow, I bet he is not affected at all.

They're in a stretch of 5 games in 7 nights. Its a compressed season and with Kemba out indefinitely it would be counter-productive to push Tatum's minutes.
Keep him under 30 tonight vs Memphis, give others an opportunity

 

[Lazy vs Crazy]

Agreed. If Theis was banging 3s from the corners every day in practice and all offseason I could see it working for specific matchups/short minutes during games.
I had Grant penciled in as Brad's corner 3pt sniper with PLUS big wing defense. But 4 games in and GW hasn't been that player yet.

IMO the corner 3 is a very important shot for the modern offense. That shot, more than any other on the floor, stretches/warps defenses into bad positions. More defenders end up in the first 2 rows completely out of the following play trying to block it. BUT you need to have a guy the defense respects from that spot to warp it. Theis probably isn't that. I still believe Grant will be that player. I'd like Brad to begin experimenting with Nesmith (10mins a night) and see if he could start drilling corner 3s to warp defenses. Barring all of that PJ Tucker at the trade deadline may be an option if Houston starts selling.

The weird thing is Theis hit a corner 3 in game 1 and since then most of his 3s have come from the top of the arch. He needs to spend more time in the corners.

 

[the moops]

The weird thing is Theis hit a corner 3 in game 1 and since then most of his 3s have come from the top of the arch. He needs to spend more time in the corners.

I think the problem is that he is setting screens up at the top for Tatum or whoever else. The pick and pop only works up there, so it would require an inferior screener with a more switchable defender if you toss Theis in the corner

 

[ColonelMustard]

After reviewing yesterday's game again, a few thoughts based on the discussion:

• Teague does not look good so far. His eFG% is lower than his career averages. He is taking poor routes to the basket (collided with Brown on a fast break) and playing horrific defense. He didn't even raise his hands on one drive AND still got called for the foul because of awkward body positioning.
• The Pacers are not going to do well this year and despite that, the Celts were playing from behind until the 4th. The Pacers are a team that the Celts should be beating handily.
• It was great to see that JT took a concerted effort to drive and get to the basket especially in the 4th. There were some pretty drives that are hard to stop once he gets down there with his length. JT should not be playing 40 minutes a game back to back. This is still "pre-season".
• 8-Mile is a baller. Great game for him. He played great defense, got the ball to shooters, and drove effectively to break down the defense.
• Brown's pull-up jumpers are becoming a ++ weapon for him.
• TT's defenses has been as poor as advertised. He lost both the PG and the Picker on PnRs several times. He didn't close out on Sabonis effectively.

 

[128]

After reviewing yesterday's game again, a few thoughts based on the discussion:

• Teague does not look good so far. His eFG% is lower than his career averages. He is taking poor routes to the basket (collided with Brown on a fast break) and playing horrific defense. He didn't even raise his hands on one drive AND still got called for the foul because of awkward body positioning.
• The Pacers are not going to do well this year and despite that, the Celts were playing from behind until the 4th. The Pacers are a team that the Celts should be beating handily.
• It was great to see that JT took a concerted effort to drive and get to the basket especially in the 4th. There were some pretty drives that are hard to stop once he gets down there with his length. JT should not be playing 40 minutes a game back to back. This is still "pre-season".
• 8-Mile is a baller. Great game for him. He played great defense, got the ball to shooters, and drove effectively to break down the defense.
• Brown's pull-up jumpers are becoming a ++ weapon for him.
• TT's defenses has been as poor as advertised. He lost both the PG and the Picker on PnRs several times. He didn't close out on Sabonis effectively.

I'm not nearly as down on Indiana as you are. The Pacers, especially Brogdon, who's usually a Celtic-killer, missed a lot of shots in the fourth quarter that they typically make. Turner remains an enigma, but Brogdon, Sabonis, Warren, a healthy Oladipo, McDermott and the Holidays form a solid core.

 

[Jimbodandy]

The two step-throughs were also really pretty.

JT looks unstoppable if he gets the ball at the FT line. I don't know why they don't put him there at the end of games, unless they believe it would be too easy to double-team him there.

I think that you answered your own question. He's vulnerable to guys picking his pocket from the blind side, and it's too easy to get there when he sets up low.


I'm not fussed about opponent EFG after four games and probably won't be after ten games. The entire team is trying to gel. There was significant turnover. Offensive rhythm takes time. Sorting out the actions on defense (abysmal so far overall) takes time.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

After reviewing yesterday's game again, a few thoughts based on the discussion:

• Teague does not look good so far. His eFG% is lower than his career averages. He is taking poor routes to the basket (collided with Brown on a fast break) and playing horrific defense. He didn't even raise his hands on one drive AND still got called for the foul because of awkward body positioning.
• The Pacers are not going to do well this year and despite that, the Celts were playing from behind until the 4th. The Pacers are a team that the Celts should be beating handily.
• It was great to see that JT took a concerted effort to drive and get to the basket especially in the 4th. There were some pretty drives that are hard to stop once he gets down there with his length. JT should not be playing 40 minutes a game back to back. This is still "pre-season".
• 8-Mile is a baller. Great game for him. He played great defense, got the ball to shooters, and drove effectively to break down the defense.
• Brown's pull-up jumpers are becoming a ++ weapon for him.
• TT's defenses has been as poor as advertised. He lost both the PG and the Picker on PnRs several times. He didn't close out on Sabonis effectively.

Not sure what makes you so sure Indiana is not going to do well. They make the playoffs easily.

 

[benhogan]

They're in a stretch of 5 games in 7 nights. Its a compressed season and with Kemba out indefinitely it would be counter-productive to push Tatum's minutes.
Keep him under 30 tonight vs Memphis, give others an opportunity

I'm not saying push Tatum's minutes.

I'm saying his play won't be adversely affected by a compressed schedule/minutes like most of the veteran superstars due to his fitness/body type.

 

[benhogan]

I think the problem is that he is setting screens up at the top for Tatum or whoever else. The pick and pop only works up there, so it would require an inferior screener with a more switchable defender if you toss Theis in the corner

If TT is playing the 5, he should be doing the screening at the top.

The excessive use of TT/DT together is perplexing since Brad did hint early that he would rotate the starting lineup based on matchups.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Indy played solid D all night and Warren got white-hot in the third (Warren fouling out with 6 left was huge for the C's chances.) The Pacers' broadcast mentioned several times how the last five games between the C's and Pacers have been decided by a total of 21 points. It's a tightly contested match-up.

 

[jmcc5400]

I'm not nearly as down on Indiana as you are. The Pacers, especially Brogdon, who's usually a Celtic-killer, missed a lot of shots in the fourth quarter that they typically make. Turner remains an enigma, but Brogdon, Sabonis, Warren, a healthy Oladipo, McDermott and the Holidays form a solid core.

Especially when they return a rotation that is familiar with each other in a year with minimal training camp. Splitting two games on the road against the Pacers is fine.

 

[ColonelMustard]

Re: Indiana Pacers

Mea Culpa on the Indiana Pacers and their competitive positioning this year. My argument got distorted by hyperbole. My point is that the Celtics should be handling a 7th or 8th seed more effectively not fighting for a 6th, 7th, 8th position.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Re: Indiana Pacers

Mea Culpa on the Indiana Pacers and their competitive positioning this year. My argument got distorted by hyperbole. My point is that the Celtics should be handling a 7th or 8th seed more effectively not fighting for a 6th, 7th, 8th position.

That’s not really how the NBA regular season works, though, particularly this year with a shortened preseason. The Nets have lost to the Grizzlies and Hornets. The Bucks got blown out by the fucking Knicks. The Lakers are 2-2. The Clips had that historic loss to the Mavs. The Raps haven’t won a game yet.

The Celtics just need to be in win-accumulation mode for now - whether they beat a good team by 20 or a bad one by 1 is (mostly) irrelevant.

 

[Jimbodandy]

That’s not really how the NBA regular season works, though, particularly this year with a shortened preseason. The Nets have lost to the Grizzlies and Hornets. The Bucks got blown out by the fucking Knicks. The Lakers are 2-2. The Clips had that historic loss to the Mavs. The Raps haven’t won a game yet.

The Celtics just need to be in win-accumulation mode for now - whether they beat a good team by 20 or a bad one by 1 is (mostly) irrelevant.

Agreed on all of this.

I also think that even win accumulation is far less important overall this year than ever before. Home court doesn't mean as much without fans. And defining a team identity and roles for everyone is pretty damn critical for teams with mad turnover and young guys that need to be figured out. Plus with a compressed schedule, you're going to see a lot of very strange box scores. Miami and Milwaukee getting their asses absolutely handed to them already should surprise noone. We've seen strange B2B results in seasons past, now the whole fucking schedule is B2B.

Get healthy. Sort out who can play. Define roles. Work out all of the actions. Stay healthy. Build chemistry and flow.

Seeding is way down the list.

 

[lovegtm]

Yeah, to pile on slightly--most people here expected the Celtics to be noticeably worse in Dec/Jan than they'll be in April. Their defensive communication is completely atrocious atm, partly as a result of working new guys in, partly because guys like GW and Theis are looking lost at times.

I'm enjoying the work-in-progress aspect of this season a lot, tbh.

 

[ColonelMustard]

That’s not really how the NBA regular season works, though, particularly this year with a shortened preseason. The Nets have lost to the Grizzlies and Hornets. The Bucks got blown out by the fucking Knicks. The Lakers are 2-2. The Clips had that historic loss to the Mavs. The Raps haven’t won a game yet.

The Celtics just need to be in win-accumulation mode for now - whether they beat a good team by 20 or a bad one by 1 is (mostly) irrelevant.

Thank you for your condescending tone. I've never seen the regular season play out before. What does that have to do with my assessment that the Celtics need to play better? You don't think that the Celtics need to improve on this game? I never said there is a correlation between this win, the Celt's season record, or playoff results.

Last season, the Bucks started 2-2—and then pushed their record to 24-3. Whether it's game 1 or game 10 or game 72 you need to get better throughout the year and shore up your weak spots. The Celtics, just like all the teams you mentioned, are reviewing tape and trying to improve. The regular season and seeding matter less this year but the Celts still need to play well and improve (and win) against good and bad teams. They need to play teams that will be the 7th/8th seed stronger to have a chance of advancing in the playoffs.

Sort out who can play. Define roles. Work out all of the actions. Stay healthy. Build chemistry and flow.

Seeding is way down the list.

So, how does this happen without winning?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Thank you for your condensation. I've never seen the regular season play out before. What does that have to do with my assessment that the Celtics need to play better? You don't think that the Celtics need to improve on this game? I never said there is a correlation between this win, the Celt's season record, or playoff results.

Last season, the Bucks started 2-2—and then pushed their record to 24-3. Whether is game 1 or game 10 or game 72 you need to get better throughout the year and shore up your weak spots. The Celtics, just like all the teams you mentioned, are reviewing tape and trying to improve. The regular season and seeding matter less this year but the Celts still need to play well and improve (and win) against good and bad teams. They need to play teams that will be the 7th/8th seed stronger to have a chance of advancing in the playoffs.



So, how does this happen without winning?

I'm not sure why you think the C's are a significantly better regular season team than the Pacers. I wouldn't be shocked if the Pacers won more games depending on Kemba's health. You are seriously understating the Pacers.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

So, how does this happen without winning?

By playing. It's almost like players improve in losses too. Maybe people would drop the condensation if you lost the attitude.

 

[jmcc5400]

The regular season and seeding matter less this year but the Celts still need to play well and improve (and win) against good and bad teams. They need to play teams that will be the 7th/8th seed stronger to have a chance of advancing in the playoffs.

Why are the Pacers a 7th/8th seed? They finished 45-28 last year and were the 4th seed. They bring everyone back, Sabonis is continuing to develop as an elite player and Oladipo looks much, much better. I think they're pretty clearly in the top 6 (unless Atlanta takes a huge step this year) in the East and will be in the scrum for 3rd-6th seeds. They're a good regular season team.

 

[ColonelMustard]

By playing. It's almost like players improve in losses too. Maybe people would drop the condensation if you lost the attitude.

That's rich. It's not my intention to antagonize anyone just challenge your groupthink. (As a separate point that does not give OurF'ingCity the right to speak down to anyone on this board.)

You're pulling out straw-man arguments for a serious question. I did not say that players do not "improve in losses". How do you know as a team that you are "building chemistry and flow", "defining roles", "working out all of the actions" if hat does not translate to wins? Basketball (for teams) is binary.

Why are the Pacers a 7th/8th seed? They finished 45-28 last year and were the 4th seed. They bring everyone back, Sabonis is continuing to develop as an elite player and Oladipo looks much, much better. I think they're pretty clearly in the top 6 (unless Atlanta takes a huge step this year) in the East and will be in the scrum for 3rd-6th seeds. They're a good regular season team.

Teams that I see performing better than Pacers: Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn Nets, Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, Toronto Raptors.

In any case, I think the conversation has drifted tangentially enough.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Thank you for your condensation.

People do seem to have decided to use this thread to blow off a little steam.

 

[ColonelMustard]

People do seem to have decided to use this thread to blow off a little steam.

Haha! Very well done.

 

[Jimbodandy]

So, how does this happen without winning?

Sacrificing some wins early in order to identify your rotation and get them playing good basketball together come playoff time is a sound strategy that doesn't prioritize maximizing regular season win totals.

They should win plenty. If they do this right, every month should have a higher winning pct than the month prior. But figuring out who can play and getting them up to speed and eventually fluent on the sets that we want to run at both ends is critical for us to have a chance at a deep playoff run.

Seeding is more or less irrelevant this year. Making the fans feel good about the team is also.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Teams that I see performing better than Pacers: Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn Nets, Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, Toronto Raptors.

In a 7 game series, yeah probably. Not convinced about the Raptors. I doubt any of those teams would sweep the Pacers in the playoffs either.

Losing on the road to the Pacers in the regular season isn't a big deal... and the C's won anyway. There's a good chance they lose tonight at home to a Memphis team without JJJ and Morant just because of the schedule.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

In a 7 game series, yeah probably. Not convinced about the Raptors. I doubt any of those teams would sweep the Pacers in the playoffs either.

Losing on the road to the Pacers in the regular season isn't a big deal... and the C's won anyway. There's a good chance they lose tonight at home to a Memphis team without JJJ and Morant just because of the schedule.

I think the Celtics and Pacers are pretty evenly matched, and I'm not surprised that the two games were both extremely close. Brogdon and a rejuvenated Oladipo is going to be a highly underrated starting backcourt as long as Oladipo stays healthy. Indiana is in that "really solid team but no shot at coming out of the East" category. As things stand right now I think the Celtics might be there too.

 

[lovegtm]

“If Jayson Tatum’s banked prayer three did not go in, we would not be able to evaluate the performance and improvement of Celtics players on that night. However, it did, and so analysis can proceed.”

Yes this is a caricature, but not by much.

I can see the underlying point Mustard is getting at (don’t fool yourself into thinking improvement is happening if it doesn’t lead to more winning), but it’s irrelevant in the short run.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If TT is playing the 5, he should be doing the screening at the top.

The excessive use of TT/DT together is perplexing since Brad did hint early that he would rotate the starting lineup based on matchups.

MIL, BRK, and IND are all pretty big teams. I think the DT/TT combination was dictated by matchups.