Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
Looking at this team, I wouldn't be surprised if Theis is getting less than 10 MPG by the playoffs, maybe less than 5 depending on matchup.

He can only play C, and Thompson and Williams both do key things better. Unless Theis goes back to his fluke 39% from 3 form of 2 years ago there isn't much of a role for him.
Theis is very needed. TT/TL won't stay healthy all season. Compressed schedule and all

We'll need at least 3 BIGs to survive this season. Maybe need a 4th (not sure that's Tacko)
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,460
Theis is very needed. TT/TL won't stay healthy all season. Compressed schedule and all

We'll need at least 3 BIGs to survive this season. Maybe need a 4th (not sure that's Tacko)
I'm talking late season/playoffs. Of course he'll get minutes throughout, but when the rotation tightens he's looking like the odd man out. It isn't going to be Thompson, and I think TL is probably passing Theis.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
I'm talking late season/playoffs. Of course he'll get minutes throughout, but when the rotation tightens he's looking like the odd man out. It isn't going to be Thompson, and I think TL is probably passing Theis.
Some were suggesting trading one of them (not you), which seems misguided (sapping their depth)

Let's see how DT plays at the 5 before speculating on his playoff minutes. He looks like he's in decent shape and playing the 4 doesn't suit him at all.
 
Last edited:

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
I was hoping we would get a Baynes encore this season after Phoenix passed, but was assured by most that TT was better.
That decision looked pretty good last night. Need to look at the other comments, but I thought TT gave them great minutes when they put him in his natural role (true 5 in a spacey lineup with Tatum).
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
Did Semi play the entire 3rd? It looks like Brad has seen enough of the 2 bigs lineup for now. I'd be mildly surprised if we see it next game to start.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
That decision looked pretty good last night. Need to look at the other comments, but I thought TT gave them great minutes when they put him in his natural role (true 5 in a spacey lineup with Tatum).
AB only missed half of dozen point-blank layups o_O

I didn't really pay attention to his defense. TT/DT did zip offensively, other than loiter in the lanes and get in JayCrews way.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
AB only missed half of dozen point-blank layups o_O

I didn't really pay attention to his defense. TT/DT did zip offensively, other than loiter in the lanes and get in JayCrews way.
Yeah, Baynes is something like 48% within 10 feet this year so far, and the eye test says he's old without any lift near the rim (more so).
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
4,810
Just noticed in the box score that Williams (Rob) had 15 rebounds last night in 20 minutes. Wow. That seems like a record for him. He never struck me as a very good rebounder last year, so that's an encouraging sign.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
8,713
Grant Williams: "Sometimes I just get in my head and don't focus on what I have to do. Tonight, I was able to play freely."

So maybe it wasn't a physical thing but that he was thinking too much. His positioning certainly looked better all night long.

If the 2-Big lineup can't guard the 3P line, Brad isn't going to play it, which I'm sure makes everyone here - and Scal - very happy. Hopefully one or both of Semi / GWill will hit or continue to hit 38+% of 3ps.

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1346297997244686340
Slow starts to the season seem to be a thing for Grant. He looked great last night.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
What was the most surprising individual element of lat night's game:
  1. PP's 23/8?
  2. GWill's 14 pts on 5/9, 3/4 shooting?
  3. RWill's 15 boards?
And which is the most sustainable? And which is the most hopeful?
Most hopeful is PP, because real NBA offense is hard to come by and kind of dwarfs everything else.

RWill’s game is probably the most sustainable: he’s a freak among freaks who is learning to put things together.
 

HowBoutDemSox

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2009
10,103
Quite a home grown second unit being built.
And from picks #22 (Grant), #26 (Pritchard), and #27 (Timelord). It was obviously a great night for all of them, but if they continue getting production from those guys, that's some solid value late in the first round.
 

bigq

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,084
And from picks #22 (Grant), #26 (Pritchard), and #27 (Timelord). It was obviously a great night for all of them, but if they continue getting production from those guys, that's some solid value late in the first round.
I’m not holding my breath and as you point out it’s just one game but maybe there is hope that we can put the Danny is no good with non-lottery picks takes to bed.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
And from picks #22 (Grant), #26 (Pritchard), and #27 (Timelord). It was obviously a great night for all of them, but if they continue getting production from those guys, that's some solid value late in the first round.
Hopefully, the late lottery picks can figure it out and join them. That will be a nice problem to have.

TL is so much more engaged at the defensive end, as both a one on one and help defender. The other four guys can ratchet up the pressure when he’s in the floor, because he’s always going to get involved on any drivers. He’s also good with his long arms and low hands in getting deflections and breaking up p/r passes.

In a league where long armed defenders can jam up normal passes off the p/r, teams need vertical spacers, guys who can catch lobs and finish. That’s obviously TL’s bread and butter, along with putbacks.

He’s also showing better instinct in tracking down defense rebounds, a product of PT and effort.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,494
What was the most surprising individual element of lat night's game:
  1. PP's 23/8?
  2. GWill's 14 pts on 5/9, 3/4 shooting?
  3. RWill's 15 boards?
And which is the most sustainable? And which is the most hopeful?
You forgot one:

4. Semi's 12 points, 8 boards, 3-5 from 3P land, in 30 minutes. Also, note that Semi was pick #37 and he's shooting 44% from 3P this season.

Most sustainable is problem RWill since he has highest TRB% on the team and he's only playing approximately 17 mpg. If his minutes increase, he will be a double-double machine. Assuming he stays healthy.

I think it's correct to keep him on the 2nd unit for now. Hopefully he can see a slight minutes increase, but that may be unlikely if Brad scraps his 2-Big lineup.
 

ugmo33

Member
SoSH Member
May 6, 2016
165
And from picks #22 (Grant), #26 (Pritchard), and #27 (Timelord). It was obviously a great night for all of them, but if they continue getting production from those guys, that's some solid value late in the first round.
Except for Tristan Thompson, everyone that played last was a Celtics draft pick and all but Jaylen are on their first contract
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,091
Except for Tristan Thompson, everyone that played last was a Celtics draft pick and all but Jaylen are on their first contract
Technically, Theis was a FA signing but, yes, pretty impressive to see that in this day and age.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
Hopefully, the late lottery picks can figure it out and join them. That will be a nice problem to have.

TL is so much more engaged at the defensive end, as both a one on one and help defender. The other four guys can ratchet up the pressure when he’s in the floor, because he’s always going to get involved on any drivers. He’s also good with his long arms and low hands in getting deflections and breaking up p/r passes.

In a league where long armed defenders can jam up normal passes off the p/r, teams need vertical spacers, guys who can catch lobs and finish. That’s obviously TL’s bread and butter, along with putbacks.

He’s also showing better instinct in tracking down defense rebounds, a product of PT and effort.
If the late lottery picks figure it out AND the guys from the 20s are rotation players/starters, Ainge will have one of the most ludicrous drafting runs in history, starting with Smart.

Most likely we just end up with “really fucking good.”
 

tbrown_01923

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2006
780
You forgot one:

4. Semi's 12 points, 8 boards, 3-5 from 3P land, in 30 minutes. Also, note that Semi was pick #37 and he's shooting 44% from 3P this season.

Most sustainable is problem RWill since he has highest TRB% on the team and he's only playing approximately 17 mpg.
Going back to last year Semi has been a 38% 3pth shooter. I think that number 37-40% is sustainable if he is taking catch and shoot 3s, since he has (already) sustained it for a (sort of) season
 

themuddychicken

New Member
Mar 26, 2014
80
If the late lottery picks figure it out AND the guys from the 20s are rotation players/starters, Ainge will have one of the most ludicrous drafting runs in history, starting with Smart.

Most likely we just end up with “really fucking good.”
And not on this board necessarily, but in general I feel like he doesn't get nearly as much credit for the Jays as he deserves since they were both #3 picks. Most GMs walk away from those two picks with Bender and Fultz. Ainge hit a home run twice, and the second time involved him trading out of the #1 spot when there was a consensus #1 prospect. Not one other GM does that.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
You forgot one:

4. Semi's 12 points, 8 boards, 3-5 from 3P land, in 30 minutes. Also, note that Semi was pick #37 and he's shooting 44% from 3P this season.

Most sustainable is problem RWill since he has highest TRB% on the team and he's only playing approximately 17 mpg. If his minutes increase, he will be a double-double machine. Assuming he stays healthy.

I think it's correct to keep him on the 2nd unit for now. Hopefully he can see a slight minutes increase, but that may be unlikely if Brad scraps his 2-Big lineup.
Hah! I literally typed half of Semi's line as point #4, and then deleted it, thinking that each element was eclipsed GWill's almost identical (but better) line.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
All these draft goodies

Looking forward to the return of Romeo

Nesmith, still looks nervous, but glad he got on the floor early when the game counted. It was nice to see Tatum encouraging the kid after AN missed another 3. They'll start falling eventually
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
10,016
All these draft goodies

Looking forward to the return of Romeo

Nesmith, still looks nervous, but glad he got on the floor early when the game counted. It was nice to see Tatum encouraging the kid after AN missed another 3. They'll start falling eventually
Yeah, I'm not worried about Nesmith's shot, which he was clearly rushing last nite. With enough minutes, the game will start to slow down for him and he can relax. You can see the physical tools are there.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
And not on this board necessarily, but in general I feel like he doesn't get nearly as much credit for the Jays as he deserves since they were both #3 picks. Most GMs walk away from those two picks with Bender and Fultz. Ainge hit a home run twice, and the second time involved him trading out of the #1 spot when there was a consensus #1 prospect. Not one other GM does that.
Agreed. He didn't luck into Tatum. He made a tactical move that came with some risk but was incredibly shrewd. He deserves full marks for that pick. And the Jaylen one too, as he wasn't any consensus stud coming out of college. Everyone knew he had athletic upside, but I don't know that anyone envisioned THIS for him.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,620
What was the most surprising individual element of lat night's game:
  1. PP's 23/8?
  2. GWill's 14 pts on 5/9, 3/4 shooting?
  3. RWill's 15 boards?
And which is the most sustainable? And which is the most hopeful?
What jumped out to me lately and it shows up in “3” is that TL is starting to get it. He looks freer on the court so far this year and his plus athleticism has let his skills pop. I had no idea TL had the kind of awareness/court vision of what is going on around him.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
What jumped out to me lately and it shows up in “3” is that TL is starting to get it. He looks freer on the court so far this year and his plus athleticism has let his skills pop. I had no idea TL had the kind of awareness/court vision of what is going on around him.
TL looks like he is starting to fill out and can hold his own on the block. That's going to open up a lot of minutes for him against the "classic" 5s that would push him around down low in the past. This added muscle should lead to a higher rebound % going forward
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
What jumped out to me lately and it shows up in “3” is that TL is starting to get it. He looks freer on the court so far this year and his plus athleticism has let his skills pop. I had no idea TL had the kind of awareness/court vision of what is going on around him.
With as active as he is, it would be hard not to be a plus defender. Him and Tatum paired together can hide a lot of mistakes too.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,494
Hah! I literally typed half of Semi's line as point #4, and then deleted it, thinking that each element was eclipsed GWill's almost identical (but better) line.
Understand completely why you would make that decision but my overall point is that a bunch of people on this board are asking for a 3&D guy and we have a guy who looks to be able to shoot 38% (+ or -) on catch and shoot 3Ps and who plays pretty good defense - at least better than, after reading through Nick Nurse's pre-game and post-game comments, anyone on TOR's bench. And a guy that was in danger of not getting his contract renewed until Hayward opted-out.

It will be interesting to see how the league values Semi.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,460
With as active as he is, it would be hard not to be a plus defender. Him and Tatum paired together can hide a lot of mistakes too.
It wouldn't be that hard. He needs to work on not being a Hassan Whiteside-esque block chaser. If I have a criticism of him this year (he's been much better on offense) it's that on D he still tries to block shots he has no chance at, giving his man an easy putback, or uncontested rebound for a re-set. His discipline is still pretty bad on defense.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
It wouldn't be that hard. He needs to work on not being a Hassan Whiteside-esque block chaser. If I have a criticism of him this year (he's been much better on offense) it's that on D he still tries to block shots he has no chance at, giving his man an easy putback, or uncontested rebound for a re-set. His discipline is still pretty bad on defense.
Williams is far more active in the passing lanes than Whiteside. Whiteside has a career 1.1% steal rate, 7.5% block rate. Robert Williams has a 2.4% steal rate and a 9.9% block rate.

I know steals and blocks are overrated but he's just so long, athletic and active it's hard to see him being below average as a whole. He definitely still needs some work and can improve a lot but I think he's a positive on that end even with the bad discipline. That's why I'd like to see him get more minutes but I'm not entirely sure he could play 25-30 minutes with the kind of energy he does and/or without fouling out. The guy is a tremendous athlete so I don't want to knock him for cardio when he's going all out but he seems to get winded at times.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,460
Williams is far more active in the passing lanes than Whiteside. Whiteside has a career 1.1% steal rate, 7.5% block rate. Robert Williams has a 2.4% steal rate and a 9.9% block rate.

I know steals and blocks are overrated but he's just so long, athletic and active it's hard to see him being below average as a whole. He definitely still needs some work and can improve a lot but I think he's a positive on that end even with the bad discipline. That's why I'd like to see him get more minutes but I'm not entirely sure he could play 25-30 minutes with the kind of energy he does and/or without fouling out. The guy is a tremendous athlete so I don't want to knock him for cardio when he's going all out but he seems to get winded at times.
Oh I think he'll likely be good, but there is a long history of active athletic guys who ended up not being good defenders because they didn't learn discipline, so for every steal or deflection they got they gave up 2 easy buckets or a bunch of FTs.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Actually did the math and broke it down. This is how I'd try to assign minutes until Kemba returns.

Tatum 34
Jaylen 34
Smart 33
Payton 27
Timelord 25
Semi 25
Tristan 20
Teague 18
Grant 15
Theis 5
Nesmith 4
Edwards/Waters/Tacko/Green garbage time only


And people miss games, so there will be more minutes due to injury. Adjust accordingly.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
27,957
Saskatoon Canada
This is n't alway indictive of anything, but I checked to see numbers matched my eyes.

But the Celtics have lost 5 of the 8 1st quarters The three they won were the two Pacers game and the Grizzlies game. In contrast they are 6-1-0 in 2nd quarter. This fits my observation that the bench has been pulling them out of holes. The defence has been particularly bad in the 1st Q.

What are the causes for slow starts? Is it the lineup? Is it prep? Will it balance out? What alarms me is the lack of execution from a team coached by a guy considered a good game-plan coach. I am used to seeing teams have to adjust to the D Brad throws at them, but so far it is Brad trying to figure out how to stop people.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,753
Twin Cities
And not on this board necessarily, but in general I feel like he doesn't get nearly as much credit for the Jays as he deserves since they were both #3 picks. Most GMs walk away from those two picks with Bender and Fultz. Ainge hit a home run twice, and the second time involved him trading out of the #1 spot when there was a consensus #1 prospect. Not one other GM does that.
Maybe. But for Ainge, it was made easier because the same trade was laid out pretty plainly, on page 3, of his private copy of Auerbach’s “How to outGM Everyone Else” manual.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
27,957
Saskatoon Canada
Maybe. But for Ainge, it was made easier because the same trade was laid out pretty plainly, on page 3, of his private copy of Auerbach’s “How to outGM Everyone Else” manual.
Don't forget that Magic Johnson was reading the Elgin Baylor handbook specifically the "be sure to announce your draft intentions ahead of time" page.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
It was easy for him because LA had given a promise to Lonzo and he had Tatum #1 on his board. By contrast Philly needed what Fultz theoretically provided, ball handling and shooting/spacing. It was a perfect storm for him. The only real worry was that LA came to its senses. (Hence Ainge attempting to work out Josh Jackson to evaluate him as a fallback option. Allah be praised that LA drafted Ball.)
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
This is n't alway indictive of anything, but I checked to see numbers matched my eyes.

But the Celtics have lost 5 of the 8 1st quarters The three they won were the two Pacers game and the Grizzlies game. In contrast they are 6-1-0 in 2nd quarter. This fits my observation that the bench has been pulling them out of holes. The defence has been particularly bad in the 1st Q.

What are the causes for slow starts? Is it the lineup? Is it prep? Will it balance out? What alarms me is the lack of execution from a team coached by a guy considered a good game-plan coach. I am used to seeing teams have to adjust to the D Brad throws at them, but so far it is Brad trying to figure out how to stop people.
What's complicated here? Theis and TT are too slow in combination to defend the perimeter, and so they give up tons of good looks. That first quarter against Toronto was target practice.

The only times that didn't happen were against Indy, who also play 2 slower bigs, and Memphis, who had nobody good available. It also worked OK against Milwaukee, who are limited in perimeter creation and elite shooting.

As soon as Theis and TT are put in normal lineups that play to their strengths, suddenly they've been good again. Magic.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
What's complicated here? Theis and TT are too slow in combination to defend the perimeter, and so they give up tons of good looks. That first quarter against Toronto was target practice.

The only times that didn't happen were against Indy, who also play 2 slower bigs, and Memphis, who had nobody good available. It also worked OK against Milwaukee, who are limited in perimeter creation and elite shooting.

As soon as Theis and TT are put in normal lineups that play to their strengths, suddenly they've been good again. Magic.
TT didn't play in the Memphis game. Brad started a 1-BIG lineup:
Teague
Smart
Brown
Tatum
Theis

It kind of broke even against Indy for the reasons you stated.
TT/DT combined were a net -4 in both Indy games, a +1 vs Milwaukee

Hopefully, we don't have to witness that Double BIG experiment for long stretches anymore. A couple of minutes in certain matchups might work, but I'm even skeptical there.
 
Last edited:

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,157
I was very glad to see CBS read SOSH during half-time and didn't run the 2BIG lineup out there to start the 2nd :) They were unbelievably atrocious in the first quarter, and that performance should completely solidify their statistical putrescence.

It's still early days, of course, but I feel like PP has pushed Teague down to 3rd string PG when Kemba returns. I don't think PP gives up anything to Teague on the defensive end - a little shorter, and Teague probably has a little bit more savvy due to his experience, but PP seems to have quick hands and has contributed to a lot of steals, in my opinion. PP also has Teague beat with regards to perimeter shooting, I'd say. Teague's 4-4 performance on opening night was very likely an outlier, I'd say. PP also seems to be doing a good job of driving and dishing and overall running the offense.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
27,957
Saskatoon Canada
I brought up trading Teague for a wing in the game thread, but using the 24 hour rule we have to wait a while longer to declare this rookie the guy. Coaches are going to notice and make a plan to stop him. My bet is we get best case scenario where he and Timelord progress to jump over teague and one of TT/DT.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,460
I brought up trading Teague for a wing in the game thread, but using the 24 hour rule we have to wait a while longer to declare this rookie the guy. Coaches are going to notice and make a plan to stop him. My bet is we get best case scenario where he and Timelord progress to jump over teague and one of TT/DT.
Teague isn't getting traded any time soon, even if PP passes him he's still very valuable to this team, as seen by Waters getting minutes with Smart out (also Marcus should play less point and more guard).

Also.... we don't need a wing that you can get for Jeff Teague (we don't need a wing at all, but Teague has no trade value).
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,934
Cultural hub of the universe
Teague isn't getting traded any time soon, even if PP passes him he's still very valuable to this team, as seen by Waters getting minutes with Smart out (also Marcus should play less point and more guard).

Also.... we don't need a wing that you can get for Jeff Teague (we don't need a wing at all, but Teague has no trade value).
I'm not sure I buy the Smart playing less point. If you think that Semi and Grant are reasonable bench options, Marcus and PP splitting the point with MS also getting some wing minutes seems like a good option. I'd like to see a Smart/Brown/Tatum/Semi/Big lineup get some run. From a defensive standpoint it'd be highly switchable, and I think Smart has done a pretty good job running the offense. Maybe he's likely to shoot less if playmaking is his primary responsibility.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,154
San Francisco
Teague isn't getting traded any time soon, even if PP passes him he's still very valuable to this team, as seen by Waters getting minutes with Smart out (also Marcus should play less point and more guard).

Also.... we don't need a wing that you can get for Jeff Teague (we don't need a wing at all, but Teague has no trade value).
If our Semi-charmed kind of backup wing play reverts to old form I would say having someone who can competently spell Tatum or Brown in the playoffs is a need.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,154
San Francisco
One surprising thing I learned about Tatum: Both this year and last his True Shooting % is just about league average.

One slightly less surprising thing I learned about him: He has continued a trend taking more midrange and shooting less close to the basket. He also shot more midrange last year as compared with 2 years ago but no one really talked about it because he also became a knock down 3 point shooter. Is this a minor concern? I do feel the guy eventually has to figure something out at the rim.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,494
One surprising thing I learned about Tatum: Both this year and last his True Shooting % is just about league average.

One slightly less surprising thing I learned about him: He has continued a trend taking more midrange and shooting less close to the basket. He also shot more midrange last year as compared with 2 years ago but no one really talked about it because he also became a knock down 3 point shooter. Is this a minor concern? I do feel the guy eventually has to figure something out at the rim.
JT needs to realize that he's a monster and start going through people at the rim instead of trying to avoid contact. It would help his finishing IMO but it would also send him to the FT line multiple times a game. There's no better way to stop a run by an opponent than going to the FT line.