Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

Just a bit outside

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 6, 2011
7,940
Monument, CO
Someone who knows more than me please explain what are pick and roll defense was against the Jazz. Our bigs hung back and watched the, shoot wide open 3 after wide open 3. I know Gobert can roll to the rim but it really killed them all game long.
 

riboflav

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2006
9,581
NOVA
Someone who knows more than me please explain what are pick and roll defense was against the Jazz. Our bigs hung back and watched the, shoot wide open 3 after wide open 3. I know Gobert can roll to the rim but it really killed them all game long.
You're probably talking about the Mitchell three that essentially iced the game. The Celts were in drop coverage (not ice) and Williams looked like he did a poor job of communicating where Gobert's exact placement was and Smart ended up going under the screen having no idea where Gobert was. That's execution not strategy.

Most open threes tonight were bc the ball defender was slow getting over the screen so extra help was needed and then the kick out to where help came from three. Hope that helps.
 

Just a bit outside

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 6, 2011
7,940
Monument, CO
You're probably talking about the Mitchell three that essentially iced the game. The Celts were in drop coverage (not ice) and Williams looked like he did a poor job of communicating where Gobert's exact placement was and Smart ended up going under the screen having no idea where Gobert was. That's execution not strategy.

Most open threes tonight were bc the ball defender was slow getting over the screen so extra help was needed and then the kick out to where help came from three. Hope that helps.
Thanks, it happened on the Mitchell 3 but also about 3-5 other times in the game. Is this mostly a case of doing a poor job fighting over the screen?
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,127
Santa Monica
The real problem was lack of production from Semi, GW, PP and Teague. 58 minutes and two points.
that's easy to fix, add a competent bench wing, move those guys (not Pritchard) to the deep bench. Problem solved. Those 4 combined make roughly $8MM, none are guaranteed very long employment if they don't improve

Our $35MM PG that picks up the on-ball defense at the 3pt line, goes under screens, barely rotates and waves at 3pt shooters is a whole different kettle of fish. He needs to efficiently score 20+ points to make up for his defense...never mind the $70MM left for the next 2 seasons.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
Moving this discussion with @radsoxfan in here from the game thread:

Last night, Semi/Grant/Teague/PP combined for 2 (!) 3 point attempts in 57 total minutes, and one of those was a bad Teague take off the dribble. Grant had the one catch-and-shoot, and even that was contested, because he was bailing out Tatum near the end of the clock.

One shitty spot-up 3 created for the entire bench in a 48 minute game.

That's not on the bench. That's on the creators for not forcing Utah into rotation, which matches the eye test and lack of fouls drawn. We can yell that we want MOAR POINTZ FROM BENCH all we want, but that doesn't change the fact that NBA role players need to get the ball with advantages to be useful on any team.

I don't think that the Celtics bench is particularly great, but with Smart back it's far less the issue than the fact that our top-end guys haven't been top-end.
 

Imbricus

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 26, 2017
4,813
That's not on the bench. That's on the creators for not forcing Utah into rotation, which matches the eye test and lack of fouls drawn.
Yup. I agree too that the bench isn't that good, but not enough people are saying this. Look at how Utah passed the ball to scramble the defense, and how effective that was. And look at how terribly Tatum played to start the game, then he came back in, and shifted his focus to passing and getting his teammates involved, and Celts got a bunch of easy buckets.

They started out last night with another ball-pounding, ISO-heavy offense. When the shots fall, no one cares. When they don't fall, the lack of execution becomes quite obvious.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
I agree with this. The biggest difference between UT and BOS to me is that UT used the PnR to break down BOS's defense and get BOS into rotation with the ball finding someone with an open shot. BOS for whatever reason was not able to get UT into rotation the same way.

Well that and the fact that we didn't have anyone who could guard Clarkson.
Replying to @wade boggs chicken dinner from the game thread:

Agree, and the thing is people will look at Clarkson and be like "omg why don't we have a bench scorer like that", when the real issue is that we have more lead dogs than Houston, which should at least somewhat obviate the need for that microwave guy.

This goes with my more general assessment of Celtics season right now: the theory of what Tatum and Brown are (2-way primary creators) hasn't lined up with what they've actually been, after the start of the season. I remain bullish on both, but their coronation as top-10 guys was premature (I was guilty of this as well).
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,127
Santa Monica
Replying to @wade boggs chicken dinner from the game thread:
This goes with my more general assessment of Celtics season right now: the theory of what Tatum and Brown are (2-way primary creators) hasn't lined up with what they've actually been, after the start of the season. I remain bullish on both, but their coronation as top-10 guys was premature (I was guilty of this as well).
I'm guilty as charged, as well (and let's not even discuss the defense from our 3 stars).

The shot selection chart, from the game thread, crystalizes a lot of what my eyes were telling me. Our 3 amigos are getting real comfortable going ISO, using clock, and looking for challenged mid-range twos.

Good teams, like Utah, don't do that. They immediately look for paint touches, draw, move ball, force opponents into rotation, and eventually attempt open 3s or layups.

We can fix the bench by acquiring a Harrison Barnes, that's simple. Not feeling confident it's going to change the outcome against the NBA elite.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
I'm guilty as charged, as well (and let's not even discuss the defense from our 3 stars).

The shot selection chart, from the game thread, crystalizes a lot of what my eyes were telling me. Our 3 amigos are getting real comfortable going ISO, using clock, and looking for challenged mid-range twos.

Good teams, like Utah, don't do that. They immediately look for paint touches, draw, move ball, force opponents into rotation, and eventually attempt open 3s or layups.

We can fix the bench by acquiring a Harrison Barnes, that's simple. Not feeling confident it's going to change the outcome against the NBA elite.
Tatum, in particular, hasn't really made the move I expected to increase his volume beyond the 3-point line. It's nice that he's getting better in the midrange, but that's not the shot that forced defenses into trapping him 30 feet from the basket last year.

If you gave Boston's 4-10 guys to Milwaukee, either LA team, Brooklyn, or Philly to replace the 4-10 guys there, those teams would be much better than the current Celtics. That's the problem right there.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,101
I believe the Celtics track record against the league's elite (shorthanded Clippers teams notwithstanding) is why Ainge is going to treat this season as a bridge year when it comes to acquiring a player at the deadline. Ainge and Wyc have been pretty open about telegraphing their intentions in that regards.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
I believe the Celtics track record against the league's elite (shorthanded Clippers teams notwithstanding) is why Ainge is going to treat this season as a bridge year when it comes to acquiring a player at the deadline. Ainge and Wyc have been pretty open about telegraphing their intentions in that regards.
Yeah, that seems clear. It just sucks, given that this same team last year was good without Hayward in the regular season, and was right on the brink in the postseason. With TL's improvement, Thompson being an upgrade over Kanter, and PP+Teague being fine relative to Wanamaker, you'd hope for a much more competitive showing.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
I'm guilty as charged, as well (and let's not even discuss the defense from our 3 stars).

The shot selection chart, from the game thread, crystalizes a lot of what my eyes were telling me. Our 3 amigos are getting real comfortable going ISO, using clock, and looking for challenged mid-range twos.

Good teams, like Utah, don't do that. They immediately look for paint touches, draw, move ball, force opponents into rotation, and eventually attempt open 3s or layups.

We can fix the bench by acquiring a Harrison Barnes, that's simple. Not feeling confident it's going to change the outcome against the NBA elite.
I agree - everyone does, really - that the Cs play better when the ball pops. That's obvious. But being playmakers - as opposed to just scoring - isn't something JB or JT did in college so they are learning on the job, which I imagine is tough in the NBA.

Two things bother me about this team.

First and foremost, I don't understand how well teams are shooting the 3s. It's particularly bothersome since this group has had a track record of defending 3s.

If I were coaching, I'd try to figure out why this group can't defend 3s this year. Maybe it's because everyone is getting beat off the PnR or maybe it's just SSS or maybe some teams have better shooters but if this doesn't get fixed the Cs aren't doing much this season.

From the standpoint of watching the games, I'malso bothered because the Cs seem to waste a lot of possessions, whether it be unforced TOs, bad shots where no one else touches the ball, or botched FB. Just off the top of my head - JT bungled a pass that lead to a run-out; JB threw away at least two possessions where he got in the air and didn't know what to do; KW held the ball too long on a 3 on 2 FB that lead to JB being blocked; the JT charge after TL blocked a shot; JB stepping on the sideline; the GW TO on the KW bad pass on another FB; GW passing up an open 17 footer and then throwing the ball away. Etc.

I know guys aren't going to be perfect but they seem to do this more often than their opponents.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
14,206
I'm guilty as charged, as well (and let's not even discuss the defense from our 3 stars).

The shot selection chart, from the game thread, crystalizes a lot of what my eyes were telling me. Our 3 amigos are getting real comfortable going ISO, using clock, and looking for challenged mid-range twos.

Good teams, like Utah, don't do that. They immediately look for paint touches, draw, move ball, force opponents into rotation, and eventually attempt open 3s or layups.

We can fix the bench by acquiring a Harrison Barnes, that's simple. Not feeling confident it's going to change the outcome against the NBA elite.
This is for me. The other good teams just don't seem to have their stars dribbling between their legs for 7 seconds and "trying to score." Tatum sometimes gets hot and it works for a while when he's hitting those sidesteps and stepbacks, but way too often it leads to out of control drives and poor turnarounds and fadeaways.

Brad said it last night - they just make the game harder than it has to be.
 

CreightonGubanich

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 13, 2006
1,379
north shore, MA
Moving this discussion with @radsoxfan in here from the game thread:

Last night, Semi/Grant/Teague/PP combined for 2 (!) 3 point attempts in 57 total minutes, and one of those was a bad Teague take off the dribble. Grant had the one catch-and-shoot, and even that was contested, because he was bailing out Tatum near the end of the clock.

One shitty spot-up 3 created for the entire bench in a 48 minute game.

That's not on the bench. That's on the creators for not forcing Utah into rotation, which matches the eye test and lack of fouls drawn. We can yell that we want MOAR POINTZ FROM BENCH all we want, but that doesn't change the fact that NBA role players need to get the ball with advantages to be useful on any team.

I don't think that the Celtics bench is particularly great, but with Smart back it's far less the issue than the fact that our top-end guys haven't been top-end.
I couldn't agree with this assessment more. The team has one natural playmaker off the dribble, and that's Marcus Smart, and he certainly isn't elite. Tatum and Brown are fantastic as scorers and, sometimes, as defenders, but right now they're not making the guys around them better. That's kind of expected - they are 24 and 22, it's a natural part of their development. They've both flashed enough improvement as playmakers that I'm still optimistic long term. But they both have a long way to go to reach even, say, Paul Pierce levels of being able to manipulate defenses. Right now, they can both make basic reads in reaction to the defense's coverage, and execute the right pass. What they can't do yet is think two steps ahead of those coverages, get the defense in rotation, identify where the breakdown will come, and get the pass there at the right time. That should come, but in the meantime, the team has two legit primary scorers and a bunch of guys standing around watching them. Most of those guys are mediocre shooters off the catch, which doesn't help.

I don't think this a scheme thing, nor do I think it's a selfishness thing from Brown or Tatum. It's easy to say they need to move the ball, but passing the ball around the perimeter, or into the post and back out, without drawing double teams or forcing the defense to scramble, doesn't lead to easy shots. There's not really a fix here except for those guys to get better. Adding a True Point Guard (tm) to this roster probably creates more problems than it solves; I don't think taking the ball out of Brown and Tatum's hands is the answer. But you look around at the top contenders - they all have an elite playmaker on the roster (Harden, LeBron, Paul, Middleton, Simmons, Jokic, Conley).

While there's no dramatic fix that I can see, some things might help around the margins. More Marcus Smart is important. I like when he's aggressive attacking the basket, even though he's not a great finisher at the rim. I'd be inclined to either keep him on the bench, or give him some extended run as the second unit point guard. While he was out, Stevens typically ran the bench offense through whichever one of Brown or Tatum was on the floor. It's not working. If we're dreaming, Romeo Langford's specific skill set could help. He at least has the theoretical ability to get into the interior of the defense. It remains to be seen if he can make the right reads and execute the pass from there, but I've come around to the idea that at least with the second unit, Langford minutes would help more than Nesmith minutes.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,160
Is part of the problem that the Celtics have very little reason, nor would other teams expect them to, pass the ball in towards the basket? They do force the ball into TT, and he has been getting some baskets lately, but it's not like they pass the ball in to a big, and then he passes it back out. I'm just wondering if having a situation where all of your scorers are perimeter players is a challenge from a ball movement perspective. It seems like the Celtics do little other than pass the ball around to see which guy wants to do iso. They also do a lot of player A basses to player B who immediately passes back to player A stuff. I don't really know what that accomplishes.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
All star players need to impose their will on a game. Gobert certainly did. Despite a slow start scoring, Mitchell got teammates involved early, and made a couple of big plays to close it out.

Tatum and Brown scored, but didn’t impact the game enough in other areas. This happens far too often. They both are supposed to be top defenders. How about playing lock down defense early in the game, when you have a lead? The killer instinct just isn’t there, unfortunately.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,333
Is part of the problem that the Celtics have very little reason, nor would other teams expect them to, pass the ball in towards the basket? They do force the ball into TT, and he has been getting some baskets lately, but it's not like they pass the ball in to a big, and then he passes it back out. I'm just wondering if having a situation where all of your scorers are perimeter players is a challenge from a ball movement perspective. It seems like the Celtics do little other than pass the ball around to see which guy wants to do iso. They also do a lot of player A basses to player B who immediately passes back to player A stuff. I don't really know what that accomplishes.
Part of this is that a team running so much through Tatum/Brown should really have 3 semi-credible floor spacers on the floor with them. Thompson has been solid overall at what he is asked to do, but I don't think it does the slashers any favors to have an opposing big camping in the paint waiting for them, which is part of why we see them take so many little mid-range shots. Things run smoother with Theis at the 5 because he gives defenses something different to think about. TL does too in his way, and we are still figuring out how to leverage that consistently. Given that their optimal 4 is really Tatum and their optimal 3 is really someone not currently on the roster, they have been playing sort of wrong-handed all season.

Most of their lineups this season feature at least 2 guys who are no real threat to attack closeouts and/or make quick passing decisions (or, often, to hit shots). So it's a very slow offense overall especially when Tatum is in iso mode.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I agree - everyone does, really - that the Cs play better when the ball pops. That's obvious. But being playmakers - as opposed to just scoring - isn't something JB or JT did in college so they are learning on the job, which I imagine is tough in the NBA.

Two things bother me about this team.

First and foremost, I don't understand how well teams are shooting the 3s. It's particularly bothersome since this group has had a track record of defending 3s.

If I were coaching, I'd try to figure out why this group can't defend 3s this year. Maybe it's because everyone is getting beat off the PnR or maybe it's just SSS or maybe some teams have better shooters but if this doesn't get fixed the Cs aren't doing much this season.

From the standpoint of watching the games, I'malso bothered because the Cs seem to waste a lot of possessions, whether it be unforced TOs, bad shots where no one else touches the ball, or botched FB. Just off the top of my head - JT bungled a pass that lead to a run-out; JB threw away at least two possessions where he got in the air and didn't know what to do; KW held the ball too long on a 3 on 2 FB that lead to JB being blocked; the JT charge after TL blocked a shot; JB stepping on the sideline; the GW TO on the KW bad pass on another FB; GW passing up an open 17 footer and then throwing the ball away. Etc.

I know guys aren't going to be perfect but they seem to do this more often than their opponents.
We are 13th in the league in Opponents 3-pt shooting so middle of the pack to the better end. The problem I saw last night was that Tatum and others were operating in the mid-range scoring 2 while Utah was raining 3’s......I was pointing this out to the wife seemingly all night last night. I’ll go back to this being a personnel issue in that we don’t have the firepower or the shooters to compete with the best teams as they have all made massive leaps forward while we have remained stagnant or declined in certain areas. We are 22nd in the league in attempted 3’s due to our role players not being threats.......that’s a problem in this day and age.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
8,725
This is for me. The other good teams just don't seem to have their stars dribbling between their legs for 7 seconds and "trying to score." Tatum sometimes gets hot and it works for a while when he's hitting those sidesteps and stepbacks, but way too often it leads to out of control drives and poor turnarounds and fadeaways.

Brad said it last night - they just make the game harder than it has to be.
To me, this speaks to a complete lack of focus and discipline to play within their system. Night after night we see short bursts where they move the ball and the offense and defense complement each other but they can't sustain that for a large enough percentage of the game's minutes to be a top team. Last night in the first quarter they were able to build a nice lead because they played very good D which lead to Utah mistakes and easy C's buckets. Later they had some fantastic streak where they hit something like 13/15 shots which they almost directly followed up by miss 15 of their next 17 shots(going off memory).

So, all the other team has to do is hang around and wait for the C's to fall back into the same bad habits we see every night and they're easily able to take control of the game and by the time the C's ratchet up the intensity again it's too late because you're one Donovan Mitchell dagger away from game over. Brad must be banging his head against the wall coaching these guys because they're their own worst enemy. They all get what they have to do to be successful out there but they can't do it, and frankly, I don't think they're going to be able to flip the switch and fix their biggest issues.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
1,388
Baby steps. There was a quote from Tatum after the game that I thought was pretty accurate:

View: https://twitter.com/taylorcsnow/status/1372020270265929729?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1372020270265929729%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fm6que7%3Fresponsive%3Dtrueis_nightmode%3Dtrue


Taking away the end-result - another loss where the game was in-reach - and lumping it into the category of all the other losses, this team looked more cohesive for most of the game, both offensively and defensively. This game didn't feel like the abysmal stretch prior to winning 4 straight heading into the ASB. The ball did move more, even through JT and JB, and I've been one of their toughest critics this year. Theis and Williams did a great job of facilitating and things did feel a lot more crisp. I personally will file this under encouraging growth against the best team in the NBA, though the growth hasn't come as fast as we all would have expected or liked.

I think PP is a long-term upgrade from Brad - and I was a bigger fan of Brad than most here IMO - but the defensive downgrade seems significant to me.
For 2020-2021, I agree. Though I do think it's easy to forget, given PP's flashes on offense, that this guy is still a first-year NBA player. The heady plays show that he understands the game, and I wouldn't necessarily say this is his ceiling on defense in the long-term.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,193
San Francisco
The complaints about the ball not moving and the fact that Tatum and Brown are far from natural playmakers are all valid but lets all remember Utah has the 2nd best defense in the NBA.
 

tbrown_01923

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2006
780
And the lack of practice has to be impacting them as an inexperienced team. as others pointed out the stars are still learning how to be stars and make their teammates better... and obviuosly PP, AN, GW look like they could use practice time too - learning sets and rotations.

Maybe they will be better in the playoffs, with the ability to practice and plan for a single opponent? maybe it will be too late. I guess that is the question - should I be hoping on them being able to put it together in the playoffs? meaning playing better hoops and not as frustrating to watch (not necessarily bring back the title)
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
Taking away the end-result - another loss where the game was in-reach - and lumping it into the category of all the other losses, this team looked more cohesive for most of the game, both offensively and defensively. This game didn't feel like the abysmal stretch prior to winning 4 straight heading into the ASB. The ball did move more, even through JT and JB, and I've been one of their toughest critics this year.
You know what's weird though? The Cs are playing a lot worse in clutch time than they have in the past. Forsberg breaks it down here: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/breaking-down-boston-celtics-struggles-clutch-time-situations.

Cs have played 25 clutch games (within 5 in the 5 minutes). To no one's surprise, they are 11-14 in those games. (Contrast PHI (15-5) + BRK (14-7) + CHA (12-5) + MIA (12-10).) But the weird thing, is that this team has been good in clutch situations over the past 4 seasons: 107-72. Maybe some has to do with lack of practice time. Forsberg's blames the offense, which probably has a lot to do with KW being out and then not being KW and Marcus being out. I'm sure some of it is just plain bad luck. Hopefully these numbers will revert back to where they were in the past.

For the first time since Stevens' rookie season on the bench, the Celtics have a negative net rating during crunch time. In fact, it’s a ghastly minus-8.7. While we’ve harped on the team’s inability to consistently get defensive stops at the end of close games in this space before, it’s the offensive numbers that might be even more troubling at the moment.
Boston’s offensive rating of 101.6 in crunch time this season ranks 25th in the NBA. That’s 11 points per 100 possessions lower than the team’s offensive rating for the season and 7.3 points lower than the meager 108.9 offensive rating the team has posted in the fourth quarter of games this season.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
5,872
Some of last night felt like bad luck. The free throw stuff and the opposing three point shooting - some of that is bad luck anyway. I thought they were very competitive, regardless. Brown I always thought would become a competitive free throw shooter, racking up seven or eight a game, but as his game has dri fted away from bully ball under the hoop and toward the mid-range, those attempts have stagnated. Tatum may never be a great finisher, on the other hand. I wish for christs sake he would just take more 3's.

I think the main problems on offense are not that Tatum and Brown are maturing as ballhandlers or that the secondary players aren't very good, but that Kemba has been bad. His shooting percentage is under 40%. That's totally untenable. He seems to disappear completely at the end of games. With him and Smart jacking up 25 shots a game at those percentages, it's hard to keep up. If Kemba gets hot, we'll start winning.

Otherwise, Semi has been above average shooting threes for a while now, at least by raw percentage, but he needs to have a quicker trigger. So does Pritchard. If those two were as willing to shoot as many threes as Smart is, we might pull out a couple more games here and there.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Otherwise, Semi has been above average shooting threes for a while now, at least by raw percentage, but he needs to have a quicker trigger. So does Pritchard. If those two were as willing to shoot as many threes as Smart is, we might pull out a couple more games here and there.
Smart 6.0 3PA/36. Semi, 5.9. Pritchard, 5.8. Your eyes lie.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
Mine and everybody else's!

So their trigger isn't the problem, it's Smart's. Is that what you're saying, or did you just drop in to insult my ocular nerve?
The problem last night wasn’t anybody’s trigger: Utah was hugging up to shooters and the primary guys couldn’t make them pay for it or force help to generate looks.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Mine and everybody else's!

So their trigger isn't the problem, it's Smart's. Is that what you're saying, or did you just drop in to insult my ocular nerve?
The problem is Semi isn't really an above average shooter. Other people have broken it down already. He'll also never have a quick release, so maybe that's what you mean by quick trigger.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,160
The kind of shots that Semi takes, a good shooter makes at a much higher percentage. Yes, his overall numbers are typically around league average and maybe even a tick or two above. But, he only takes completely open looks. Which is the result of the fact that people aren't really covering him, they are covering JT/JB. If we had a better shooter that would draw more attention, it would help JT/JB.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
Moving this discussion with @radsoxfan in here from the game thread:

Last night, Semi/Grant/Teague/PP combined for 2 (!) 3 point attempts in 57 total minutes, and one of those was a bad Teague take off the dribble. Grant had the one catch-and-shoot, and even that was contested, because he was bailing out Tatum near the end of the clock.

One shitty spot-up 3 created for the entire bench in a 48 minute game.

That's not on the bench. That's on the creators for not forcing Utah into rotation, which matches the eye test and lack of fouls drawn. We can yell that we want MOAR POINTZ FROM BENCH all we want, but that doesn't change the fact that NBA role players need to get the ball with advantages to be useful on any team.

I don't think that the Celtics bench is particularly great, but with Smart back it's far less the issue than the fact that our top-end guys haven't been top-end.
I don't disagree with the critiques of the starters at all. Bench play is highly dependent on the overall ball movement and game plan, these guys are on the bench for a reason. The majority of them aren't expected to be creating a lot of offense for themselves.

However, I do think there is a baseline NBA competence and productivity that most teams expect from their bench. If a group of 4 guys gets 57 minutes, there are points out there on loose balls, broken plays, offensive rebounds, steals, unexpected fast breaks, etc. They might need help from the starters to have good games, but they shouldn't need help to exist.

Semi starts and plays 19 minutes, 0 shots, 0 points
Grant gets 17 minutes, 3 shots, 2 points
Pritchard gets 12 minutes, 0 shots, 0 points
Teague gets 10 minutes, 1 shot, 0 points

You can talk about the starters playing ISO ball and not getting these guys involved, and you would be right. But NBA players shouldn't be doing absolutely nothing on the court even if they aren't getting any help. There is plenty of blame to go around after a game like that, and the bench definitely deserves some.


Edit: that foursome also had 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 0 steals, and 2 TO so it's not like they were productive in some other way. That many empty minutes (57!!!) is going to hurt any team. There are only 240 minutes out there to be had.
 
Last edited:

RorschachsMask

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2011
5,205
Lynn
Sharing this from elsewhere.

Kemba has a 32% TS and a -21(!!) net rating in the last 5 minutes of close games. Has a 19% assist rate, and a 3.1% turnover rate. At least he doesn’t turn the ball over late?

Jaylen has a 50.5% TS and a -9.2 net rating in those moments. Has a 4.8% assist rate, and an 8.5 turnover ratio. To say he is a ballstopper late would be a massive understatement.

Tatum has a 62% TS and a -1.6 net rating in them. Has a 14.7% assist rate and a 10.1% turnover rate, he turns the ball over a bit too much late, but he has to do everything for them in those situations, and he’s done it at a high level.

Team desperately needs another guy who can hit shots late in games, or at least be a threat to take them.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,213
My diagnosis---going back to playoffs---is that they get tentative in the last five minutes. That leads to guys dribbling more and waiting for the perfect cut/lane/opporutnity and that often results in a late in the shot clock pull up.

Smart is never tentative, so one reason he takes more shots late is he is seeing the above and not impacted directly by it. That's better than not being aggressive, but not as good as what they need to develop, which is JT/JB being even more aggressive in driving/passing/creating in the last 5 minutes than they are in the first 43. That's the step they need more than anything, even if they aren't the player who ultimtaely scores they are the guys who can initate movement and disrupt the defense. And they aren't doing it consistently. Some of that is about better/tighter defense at end but I truly believe more of it is they aren't yet fully confident in their ability to do so.

Put a different way, I wish TT was saying to them in practice "I played with young Lebron and he KNEW he was going to beat his man with one minute left in a tie game. You guys need to believe you will do so, and then go do it"
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
5,872
The problem last night wasn’t anybody’s trigger: Utah was hugging up to shooters and the primary guys couldn’t make them pay for it or force help to generate looks.
Listen, I think all of these things are issues, but some are bigger issues than others. The Celtics did take far fewer threes, but I think if you go back and watch the highlights you'll see plenty of instances of Brown and Tatum drawing plenty of help and deciding not to pass, opting for tough floaters and fadeaways. There's one from the fourth quarter where Pritchard is even jumping up and down waving his hands as Brown gets blocked by Gobert. There are others still where Pritchard was open and didn't pull the trigger. I think Brown and Tatum need to find Semi and Pritchard more and I think Pritchard needs a quicker trigger. That's been a documented problem with him, Brad has even complained.

But Smart and Kemba also combined to go 3/13 on 3 pointers. Together they're taking 13 a game and shooting under 35%. That's going to be a headache for the rest of the season. That, plus the free throws - which I think has as much to do with this teams ability to generate them as it does Utah's defense and some bad luck - was as much the difference as anything last night.

The problem is Semi isn't really an above average shooter. Other people have broken it down already. He'll also never have a quick release, so maybe that's what you mean by quick trigger.
In case I wasn't clear, I'm conceding your point about their triggers, and I'm happy to admit I didn't think through Semi's limitations on offense enough. On the other hand, if he's shooting as much by volume as Smart at almost 39%, can we at least agree he's perfectly fine at what he does?

Again, my point was that as much as Tatum and Brown need to learn to improve their decision-making, Kemba and Smart have together been well-below average on 3 pointers, which has left Brown and Tatum no wiggle room to make these mistakes.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
In case I wasn't clear, I'm conceding your point about their triggers, and I'm happy to admit I didn't think through Semi's limitations on offense enough. On the other hand, if he's shooting as much by volume as Smart at almost 39%, can we at least agree he's perfectly fine at what he does?
He would be perfectly fine at what he does but he's been forced into a bigger role. He shouldn't be playing almost 20 minutes a night or be 6th in total minutes played this season. It's Wanamaker all over again. We are getting over exposed to a guy who would be fine if he was 10th in minutes.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
Team desperately needs another guy who can hit shots late in games, or at least be a threat to take them.
This is it. This is all the analysis we need to do. Utah is a great team - they roll out walking bucket after walking bucket - and they play fantastic defense. Meanwhile, the C's have two elite wings who can get buckets but little in the way of other offensive help. Its hard for us to all see and its not an easy fix given the parameters of a potential solution but this team is really one more scorer from being able to hang with a team like the Jazz and that would also positively impact their rotations (assuming that they wouldn't deal all of their rotation for help).

The 2021 Boston Celtics are talented and good. They just aren't talented or good enough.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
5,872
This is it. This is all the analysis we need to do. Utah is a great team - they roll out walking bucket after walking bucket - and they play fantastic defense. Meanwhile, the C's have two elite wings who can get buckets but little in the way of other offensive help. Its hard for us to all see and its not an easy fix given the parameters of a potential solution but this team is really one more scorer from being able to hang with a team like the Jazz and that would also positively impact their rotations (assuming that they wouldn't deal all of their rotation for help).

The 2021 Boston Celtics are talented and good. They just aren't talented or good enough.
If Kemba comes roaring back in the second half, he's that guy. If he doesn't, we're sunk.

He would be perfectly fine at what he does but he's been forced into a bigger role. He shouldn't be playing almost 20 minutes a night or be 6th in total minutes played this season. It's Wanamaker all over again. We are getting over exposed to a guy who would be fine if he was 10th in minutes.
Don't disagree at all, but even teams much better than we are have guys like this. Bucks fans have to watch DJ Augustin light twenty minutes on fire every night. Even the Lakers are trotting out Wesley Matthew's corpse for twenty minutes a game. Our problem is not Semi, who has become the ludicrous center of conversation because I said soemthing stupid -- it's the fact that Kemba looks like Terry Rozier from three years ago without the defense. We're hyper-focused on depth because the Jazz have maybe the best in the league, but our problem is not depth. Not really. It's the void at the top.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
The problem last night wasn’t anybody’s trigger: Utah was hugging up to shooters and the primary guys couldn’t make them pay for it or force help to generate looks.
What makes Utah’s defense so great is that Gobert is in the lane. Unlike most teams the Jazz don’t worry about being beat off the dribble so they can close out hard. This is why they are #1 in league in Opp 3-pt Attempts and Makes while 6th in Pct.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
If Kemba comes roaring back in the second half, he's that guy. If he doesn't, we're sunk.
Were I running the team, I would not be making that assumption. And I will argue that even if Kemba returns to form, they still don't have enough.

People keep getting caught up in individual play or sequences or coaching decisions. Without defending any of those things, the real issue for this team and every club in the NBA is how much top level talent they have. Its elemental - if you have a lot of players who have winning impacts on NBA games, you are more likely to win NBA games. The C's simply don't have enough of that type of talent. Everything else is a function of them trying to compensate for this deficiency when playing superior teams.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
5,872
Were I running the team, I would not be making that assumption. And I will argue that even if Kemba returns to form, they still don't have enough.

People keep getting caught up in individual play or sequences or coaching decisions. Without defending any of those things, the real issue for this team and every club in the NBA is how much top level talent they have. Its elemental - if you have a lot of players who have winning impacts on NBA games, you are more likely to win NBA games. The C's simply don't have enough of that type of talent. Everything else is a function of them trying to compensate for this deficiency when playing superior teams.
Well, I wouldn't either -- but we don't have much of a choice and neither does Danny. They're trapped with him.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
Well, I wouldn't either -- but we don't have much of a choice and neither does Danny. They're trapped with him.
Let me be clearer. I have no clue what the Celtics think of Walker but even at full strength, they have to play at max efficiency to beat the best teams. That may work in the short term but there is a reason why the haves keep piling on more players. Kemba isn't really the problem because he was never supposed to be the solution. They need more top end talent beyond what they already have, period. Its as simple as that.
 

bakahump

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2001
7,522
Maine
Not Happy with Tatum or Brown lately. They are the alpha dogs and while they may be "alpha Scorers" it occurred to me last night that they simply dont do many winning basketball plays. Too many times they got hung up and threw the ball to the Jazz. To many times Tatums handle wasnt where it needed to be and he lost the ball. Too many times they drive and avoid contact instead of invite it and get the opposing team into foul trouble.
I have some faith they will get there.....but right now they are not enough and for us to pretend they are is foolish. They do amazing things at times but still do way to many stupid things.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
At a fundamental level do people think that Tatum and Brown might be too redundant to ever lead an elite offense?
To ever lead one? I don't think so. They are both so young I would definitely not say that. This version of them, perhaps not.

It's going to take growth on their part and surrounding them with the right complementary guys.

But 2 wings with their talent is a great thing to have and definitely can be part of an elite offense in the future.

Even if they are a bit redundant, wing is the position it's best to be redundant at (plus they are both pretty versatile players in general).
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,160
This is a bit of a side-track, but wouldn't it be nice if for once the Celtics got equal to or better than expected production out of their big name free agents? Kemba, Hayward, Horford - it seems like they have all ended up at least a bit of a disappointment.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
This is a bit of a side-track, but wouldn't it be nice if for once the Celtics got equal to or better than expected production out of their big name free agents? Kemba, Hayward, Horford - it seems like they have all ended up at least a bit of a disappointment.
This is the LEBRON metric but we can use whatever non-counting stats to make the point that the Celtics got good production out of Horford. There was hope that this forum was done with the "Average Al" stuff.

39577