Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

BigSoxFan

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This is a bit of a side-track, but wouldn't it be nice if for once the Celtics got equal to or better than expected production out of their big name free agents? Kemba, Hayward, Horford - it seems like they have all ended up at least a bit of a disappointment.
I wouldn't call Horford a disappointment. He was very solid for us and sometimes better, including being an all-star in his 2nd season with us. Hayward/Kemba have clearly been disappointments, which is entirely physical related. Hayward was a fluke injury and Kemba was a calculated risk that didn't turn out too great.

The bigger disappointment is wondering what a functioning Kyrie with the Jay's would be doing right now...
 

RetractableRoof

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Basketball like many pursuits is often a game of rhythm, right? The Celtics do not generate any flow offensively on a consistent basis. ISO basketball destroys rhythm for everyone except the guy with the ball. If you have an offense that asks Grant/Semi/? to set a screen or two and then go sit in the corner until we need you - it's hard to complain that they're not hitting 3s consistently - they have no rhythm. Utah laughed at Theis going out to the 3 point line and shooting, at one point I'm pretty sure they sent a ball boy out on the court with a golden ticket inviting him to shoot. As far as I can tell they have one non-J who can consistently hit a 3 pointer outside of rhythm and that is PP - and he's got the rookie deferential blues going on. It's listed on Kemba's biography - but he hasn't done it game in and game out for a long while.

Short term, give the ball to PP and let him dribble, penetrate, distribute and get people involved the way he was prior to his injury, prior to Smart being on the court. He was generating easy buckets for others - which the Celtics get very few of in their current attack. (If someone wants to say the league has caught up to PP already and he's not going to be successful at that, I'm listening.)

Long term, and I know I'm going to get laughed at... the Celtics have too much talent at a lot of positions to be suck this bad - IMO the way to go, is to run a version of the damn triangle. Get everyone moving, get the other team tired chasing the ball, everyone is touching the ball and establishing rhythm. No doubt in my mind that Kemba, Smart, PP could run it, both Js could, Grant is smart enough, Theis could do it, and TL would explode. He's got the passing game to excel at it. It would take advantage of RL's slashing should he ever get back on the court, and AN would fit in nicely as well I think. The team is young enough to implement it (even progressing into it in stages), that it could be a staple for years to come. I think one of the primary benefits is that it would provide a structure/framework for getting everyone involved, without putting the short term pressure (2021ish) on the Js to be effective distributors - it would happen organically.

Go ahead, tar and feather me... lol
 

TripleOT

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Maybe breaking up the Jays needs to happen, which pains me to type. Maybe Brown and KAT as the centerpieces of a deal? Brown, Kemba, TT for Kat, Rubio, Beasley, with picks going to Minny?
 

benhogan

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Maybe breaking up the Jays needs to happen, which pains me to type. Maybe Brown and KAT as the centerpieces of a deal? Brown, Kemba, TT for Kat, Rubio, Beasley, with picks going to Minny?
If you want to go there (which I don't) you'd ring the Hawks and hope they overpay for their hometown hero.

something like Collins + Hunter + First-round pick would probably be close to fair.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I'll say this, I would really like to never see Robert Williams setting screens at, near or outside the 3 point line anymore. It's simply too far for a roll to work on a PnR, and most of the time, he just ends up standing out there like Theis waiting to shoot a 3 that he's never going to shoot. Is there a rule that in Brad's offense, a big has to set the high screen that far from the hoop? Why not run Marcus out there to set the screen for Jaylen or Kemba or JT? Or have them set the screens for each other? Leave RWill down low, so if the screen works, and one of their playmakers gets going to the hoop, you force the big defending TimeLord to make a decision. If he jumps out to cover the guy driving the hoop, you lob it to RWill. If he stays on TimeLord, you have an easy bucket, or a wing has to back in to help leaving a shooter open on the wing or in the corner. I just don't understand why we constantly have to have an offense that ends up with our worst shooters at the 3 point line.

There also continues to be virtually no offensive moment by any player other than those involved in dribbling or setting the high screen. The other 3 guys are standing outside the arc twiddling their thumbs. The cut the other day by Jaylen (or maybe it was Smart) in which TL hit him with a great pass was so good, but so fucking rare for this team. Steph Curry doesn't get open solely on PnR's. He gets open because he runs around the court at a dizzying rate when he's not near the ball.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I'll say this, I would really like to never see Robert Williams setting screens at, near or outside the 3 point line anymore. It's simply too far for a roll to work on a PnR, and most of the time, he just ends up standing out there like Theis waiting to shoot a 3 that he's never going to shoot. Is there a rule that in Brad's offense, a big has to set the high screen that far from the hoop? Why not run Marcus out there to set the screen for Jaylen or Kemba or JT? Or have them set the screens for each other? Leave RWill down low, so if the screen works, and one of their playmakers gets going to the hoop, you force the big defending TimeLord to make a decision. If he jumps out to cover the guy driving the hoop, you lob it to RWill. If he stays on TimeLord, you have an easy bucket, or a wing has to back in to help leaving a shooter open on the wing or in the corner. I just don't understand why we constantly have to have an offense that ends up with our worst shooters at the 3 point line.

There also continues to be virtually no offensive moment by any player other than those involved in dribbling or setting the high screen. The other 3 guys are standing outside the arc twiddling their thumbs. The cut the other day by Jaylen (or maybe it was Smart) in which TL hit him with a great pass was so good, but so fucking rare for this team. Steph Curry doesn't get open solely on PnR's. He gets open because he runs around the court at a dizzying rate when he's not near the ball.
Using TL to set the screen is already forcing the defending big into uncomfortable positions/decisions, as he now has to cover the drive against a faster player while TL and his enormous alley-oop radius get a relatively free path to the rim in motion which is really tough to stop—if the driver is willing and able to make the pass (see Harden/Jordan, Harden/Capela, etc). You also want the paint cleared of defenders when Tatum/Brown get the ball looking to drive.

While different screen combos could help get JB/JT in motion more, it doesn't get the desired effect of creating mismatches, as you're often just swapping the top wing defenders. This is why Al was so good here, because he could pop off that screen much faster than a big could recover, and/or he would have any number of avenues to create good offense.

I could see it in situations where a team is doubling Tatum on screens. If his outlet in those situations is a big at the top of the key who isn't a threat to shoot/drive/pass, it becomes harder to turn those situations into an open look elsewhere on the court.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The issue isn’t that of iso......the issue is about how the iso players understand the game and how to take advantage of matchups that also incorporate their teammates. It’s also important to actually have NBA quality teammates. Nearly all the best teams in the league are iso-heavy and in the 4Q almost predominantly iso. The Nuggets with Jokic. Clippers w Kawhi and George. Nets, Lakers......and on an on. I don’t know why the term “iso” carries such a negative connotation when that is what the leagues best offenses and best teams run. Youth doesn’t win in this league.....Tatum and Brown are 24 and 22. They need time to figure it out.
 

Fishy1

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Let me be clearer. I have no clue what the Celtics think of Walker but even at full strength, they have to play at max efficiency to beat the best teams. That may work in the short term but there is a reason why the haves keep piling on more players. Kemba isn't really the problem because he was never supposed to be the solution. They need more top end talent beyond what they already have, period. Its as simple as that.
Forgive me, but I'm not sure this is clearer for me. If you're saying the bench is thin, I don't disagree. It would be wonderful if this team had Joe Harris or KCP or someone like that instead of Semi Ojeleye. But I don't know how you can say Kemba isn't "really" the problem when his injury forced Jeff Teague into a ton of minutes, and since his return, he's been shooting an abysmal 39% on his field goals. Kemba's rate stats have never lit the world on fire, but when your third and fourth options on offense are both shooting sub 40%, you can't pretend that isn't a problem.

Anyway, I believe that top-end talent is built into the growth of this team. Both Tatum and Brown are already very good scorers, and I'm a pretty big believer that next year at least one of Jaylen and Tatum make another leap as a playmaker, and I think that's the biggest difference we can look forward to. Harden didn't average six passes a game until his age 23 season, and Jimmy Butler only got there last year. Durant didn't start assisting more than he turned the ball over till he was 24. Both Tatum and Brown are around four a game this year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Tatum averaging six or seven next year, with continued improvements over the course of this season as well.

I know this year has been rough -- but to have two wings capable of making shots at all three levels and tough passes is a dream. For the first time they're playing without the consistent presence of a star veteran -- Hayward, Horford, Kyrie, Kemba etc, and they've spent this year struggling with injuries and a diminished Kemba. In spite of that they have fought hard and both shown incredible improvement.

I still think this team, barring further injuries or a total collapse from Kemba, makes a run this year, maybe all the way to ECF. I'm not a big believer in Philadelphia, and Brooklyn is just one injury or psychotic break away from struggleville. I thought the C's played well last night and I'm looking forward to seeing what they can do with what they have.
 

Imbricus

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This is for me. The other good teams just don't seem to have their stars dribbling between their legs for 7 seconds and "trying to score." Tatum sometimes gets hot and it works for a while when he's hitting those sidesteps and stepbacks, but way too often it leads to out of control drives and poor turnarounds and fadeaways.

Brad said it last night - they just make the game harder than it has to be.
I would slap an exclamation point after this. When Tatum gets the ball and pounds it, and the rest of the Celtics offense pretty much disappears, because he's decided he's going to somehow beat his man one-on-one, he's just begging for the possession to end in a more difficult shot. If he snaps off a pass, and that guy snaps off a pass, and then there's another pass, then it comes back to him, chances are the defense isn't set and he's going to be in a much better position to get a good look or a drive. It makes the game so much easier.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Forgive me, but I'm not sure this is clearer for me. If you're saying the bench is thin, I don't disagree. It would be wonderful if this team had Joe Harris or KCP or someone like that instead of Semi Ojeleye. But I don't know how you can say Kemba isn't "really" the problem when his injury forced Jeff Teague into a ton of minutes, and since his return, he's been shooting an abysmal 39% on his field goals. Kemba's rate stats have never lit the world on fire, but when your third and fourth options on offense are both shooting sub 40%, you can't pretend that isn't a problem.

Anyway, I believe that top-end talent is built into the growth of this team. Both Tatum and Brown are already very good scorers, and I'm a pretty big believer that next year at least one of Jaylen and Tatum make another leap as a playmaker, and I think that's the biggest difference we can look forward to. Harden didn't average six passes a game until his age 23 season, and Jimmy Butler only got there last year. Durant didn't start assisting more than he turned the ball over till he was 24. Both Tatum and Brown are around four a game this year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Tatum averaging six or seven next year, with continued improvements over the course of this season as well.

I know this year has been rough -- but to have two wings capable of making shots at all three levels and tough passes is a dream. For the first time they're playing without the consistent presence of a star veteran -- Hayward, Horford, Kyrie, Kemba etc, and they've spent this year struggling with injuries and a diminished Kemba. In spite of that they have fought hard and both shown incredible improvement.

I still think this team, barring further injuries or a total collapse from Kemba, makes a run this year, maybe all the way to ECF. I'm not a big believer in Philadelphia, and Brooklyn is just one injury or psychotic break away from struggleville. I thought the C's played well last night and I'm looking forward to seeing what they can do with what they have.
My point was that Kemba was never going to be the player that put this team over the top, even at at his peak. He was/is very good but unless one or both Tatum and/or Brown makes another big leap, they were always going to need another top player to really compete. And I am not talking about Harris or KCP. Rotation players will help too but only marginally.
 
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RetractableRoof

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My point was that Kemba was never going to be the player that put this team over the top, even at at his peak. He was/is very good but unless one or both Tatum and/or Brown makes another big leap, they were always going to need another top player to really compete. And I am not talking about Harris or KCP. Rotation players will help too but only marginally.
They swapped out ball dominant Kyrie for Kemba, and we thought it would be a positive - he'd be that complimentary 3rd piece that would allow the Js to mature. In what I assumed was a good thing, he was willing to defer to them, excepting in games where they seemed to suck - and then he tried to turn on Charlotte mode. I don't think he has that in him any longer, but even if he did - that's just a 3rd individual piece. Until they install an offense where the ball has to move and the right shot occurs within the flow (i.e. the Utah approach) the skills of Kemba (whatever is left of them) certainly isn't going to put them over the top. And when he feels like it is hitting the fan, Smart jumps in with his cape flowing in the wind.

I don't care what kind of motion offense they install, but they have to install one and work from it. I'm also at the point of others in the game thread. If they are going to suck like this, I want to see AN on the floor. He can't be any worse, and at least he can start getting through his growing pains. And frankly, if the Js aren't going to try to get anyone involved (other than the lob to TL), then back off their minutes as well - because it ain't working as is. (Edit: frankly I'm worried that some of the All-star game BS might be getting to their heads. The stuff they are doing might indeed get them to or back to the All Star game, but it isn't going to win them games consistently.)

Sorry if this feels game thready... I'm ticked.
 
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Auger34

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I'll say this, I would really like to never see Robert Williams setting screens at, near or outside the 3 point line anymore. It's simply too far for a roll to work on a PnR, and most of the time, he just ends up standing out there like Theis waiting to shoot a 3 that he's never going to shoot. Is there a rule that in Brad's offense, a big has to set the high screen that far from the hoop? Why not run Marcus out there to set the screen for Jaylen or Kemba or JT? Or have them set the screens for each other? Leave RWill down low, so if the screen works, and one of their playmakers gets going to the hoop, you force the big defending TimeLord to make a decision. If he jumps out to cover the guy driving the hoop, you lob it to RWill. If he stays on TimeLord, you have an easy bucket, or a wing has to back in to help leaving a shooter open on the wing or in the corner. I just don't understand why we constantly have to have an offense that ends up with our worst shooters at the 3 point line.

There also continues to be virtually no offensive moment by any player other than those involved in dribbling or setting the high screen. The other 3 guys are standing outside the arc twiddling their thumbs. The cut the other day by Jaylen (or maybe it was Smart) in which TL hit him with a great pass was so good, but so fucking rare for this team. Steph Curry doesn't get open solely on PnR's. He gets open because he runs around the court at a dizzying rate when he's not near the ball.
I don’t mean this to seem snarky or game thread-esque (because I’m being serious)....but it seems like a big setting a screen near the 3 point line (or catching and surveying from that position) is honestly the only rule or principle in Brad’s offense.
Mosr possessions seem to be a high PnR for one of Tatum/Brown/Kemba while 3 other players stand behind the arc and do nothing
 

slamminsammya

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I don’t mean this to seem snarky or game thread-esque (because I’m being serious)....but it seems like a big setting a screen near the 3 point line (or catching and surveying from that position) is honestly the only rule or principle in Brad’s offense.
Mosr possessions seem to be a high PnR for one of Tatum/Brown/Kemba while 3 other players stand behind the arc and do nothing
Scheme is always dominated by personnel. How quickly people forget the flowing selfless beauty that was the Brad Stevens offense when IT was here. Scheme won't suddenly make Tatum's entire temperament on offense change. The guy is a total ball stopper unless he is passing out of a move he has initiated.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Scheme is always dominated by personnel. How quickly people forget the flowing selfless beauty that was the Brad Stevens offense when IT was here. Scheme won't suddenly make Tatum's entire temperament on offense change. The guy is a total ball stopper unless he is passing out of a move he has initiated.
You are partly correct. The problem is that Tatum and Brown don't have much support. They are the team's most efficient scorers by a wide margin. They need more volume scoring help beyond what is on their roster. Smart's playmaking should help as he eases back in to things and the TimeLord breakout opens up a host of possibilities. But they need reinforcements. Plural. A two way wing (not named Barnes) plus more bench shooting would be ideal.
 

scottyno

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They swapped out ball dominant Kyrie for Kemba, and we thought it would be a positive - he'd be that complimentary 3rd piece that would allow the Js to mature. In what I assumed was a good thing, he was willing to defer to them, excepting in games where they seemed to suck - and then he tried to turn on Charlotte mode. I don't think he has that in him any longer, but even if he did - that's just a 3rd individual piece. Until they install an offense where the ball has to move and the right shot occurs within the flow (i.e. the Utah approach) the skills of Kemba (whatever is left of them) certainly isn't going to put them over the top. And when he feels like it is hitting the fan, Smart jumps in with his cape flowing in the wind.
He just had a 10 game stretch where he did turn on Charlotte mode, it just didn't help much because both Jays were sucking. His shooting has been fine outside of the first few games, he's shooting the 3 at a solid rate on high volume, but if the Jays don't figure things out on a regular basis it's not going to matter.
 

RorschachsMask

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Scheme is always dominated by personnel. How quickly people forget the flowing selfless beauty that was the Brad Stevens offense when IT was here. Scheme won't suddenly make Tatum's entire temperament on offense change. The guy is a total ball stopper unless he is passing out of a move he has initiated.
Tatum isn’t even the biggest ball stopper on the team. He goes iso the most, and is slow to make decisions, but when it comes to being a ballstopper, Jaylen is by far the biggest offender.

Of 84 players who receive at least 40 passes per game, Jaylen Brown is dead last in passes made. He is at 42.7 passes received a game, with 29.8 passes. Tatum is at 51.4 passes received, and 48.9 passes made. Kemba is at 60.4 passes received, and 49 made.
 
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RetractableRoof

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Tatum isn’t even the biggest ball stopper on the team. He is slow to make decisions, but when it comes to being a ballstopper, Jaylen is by far the biggest offender.

Of 84 players who receive at least 40 passes per game, Jaylen Brown is dead last in passes made. He is at 42.3 passes received a game, and 29.7 passes. Tatum is at 51 passes received, and 49 passes made. Kemba is at 60 passes received, and 49 made.
I'm not being snarky, but how many of Tatum's passes are just given right back to him? He is not distributing, and any stat that makes it look like he is doesn't add any value to me.
 

RorschachsMask

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I'm not being snarky, but how many of Tatum's passes are just given right back to him? He is not distributing, and any stat that makes it look like he is doesn't add any value to me.
Can’t really check that, I just think people kind of see what they want to see. He has the 3rd highest assist rate on the team, and passes the ball as much as he receives it.

Does the ball stick with him too much? Absolutely, and he goes ISO too much. But he’s very clearly not the biggest offender of being a ballstopper, that would be Jaylen.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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Tatum isn’t even the biggest ball stopper on the team. He goes iso the most, and is slow to make decisions, but when it comes to being a ballstopper, Jaylen is by far the biggest offender.
This is schematic, isn't it? When sharing the floor with Tatum, Brown is typically relegated to the corner with, I assume, the intention of receiving a pass via drive & kick. Something that also may skew perception against what the stats say, Jaylen is quick to make his decision to shoot. It's not often that he eats 14 seconds off the clock walking the ball up, taking his sweet time asking the 5 to come to the top of the arch to set a pick for the switch and then spend the last 10 seconds of the clock dribbling before pulling a step-back 3.

Jaylen pushes the ball hard in transition, gets out and puts pressure on the defense to collapse into the paint. I much prefer this type of ball-stopping to Tatum's.
 

RorschachsMask

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This is schematic, isn't it? When sharing the floor with Tatum, Brown is typically relegated to the corner with, I assume, the intention of receiving a pass via drive & kick. Something that also may skew perception against what the stats say, Jaylen is quick to make his decision to shoot. It's not often that he eats 14 seconds off the clock walking the ball up, taking his sweet time asking the 5 to come to the top of the arch to set a pick for the switch and then spend the last 10 seconds of the clock dribbling before pulling a step-back 3.

Jaylen pushes the ball hard in transition, gets out and puts pressure on the defense to collapse into the paint. I much prefer this type of ball-stopping to Tatum's.
It’s definitely part of the equation, but Jaylen is out there without Tatum quite a bit of the time. Tatum holds the ball longer than anyone on the team, that much is very clear, but he also moves it more than Jaylen by a fair amount. He’s 3rd on the team in assist rate behind Smart and Kemba, and doesn’t turn the ball over despite holding it so much.

As far as Jaylen attacking the hoop, him and Tatum are basically even in percentage of shots at the rim. 19% of Jaylen’s shots are at the rim, and 18% of Tatum’s are. Basically even in efficiency at the rim as well, 71% for Jaylen, 70% for Tatum.

Jaylen does get out in transition far more often, 22.7% of the time, and he’s in the 59th percentile for transition efficiency. Tatum only gets out in transition 10% of the time, but is in the 83rd percentile for transition efficiency. So he should try running in transition more, easy buckets are a good thing.
 
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RetractableRoof

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Can’t really check that, I just think people kind of see what they want to see. He has the 3rd highest assist rate on the team, and passes the ball as much as he receives it.

Does the ball stick with him too much? Absolutely, and he goes ISO too much. But he’s very clearly not the biggest offender of being a ballstopper, that would be Jaylen.
Agree with those numbers as well, but my point stands. He has the ball, he passes the ball. If he gets the ball handed right back to him - it's an empty pass. While I'm whining, I'm beginning to dislike him bringing the ball up whenever Kemba or PP are on the court as well, for similar reasons.

I agree Jaylen may be worse - though I am seeing him begin to look for TL a bit more (maybe as a result of TL hitting him with some magical passes of his own?). [Edit: @BillMuellerFanClub assessment about Jaylen's aggression is relevant here though.]

My overall point is simply that this team uses no genuine/consistent motion to create easy shots or in general few shots where the Js leverage their own gravity for the betterment of the team. MJ himself didn't win in this league until he figured out how to put others into a position to be successful - ironically some of that involved the triangle offense I was talking about earlier in this thread.
 

RetractableRoof

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This is schematic, isn't it? When sharing the floor with Tatum, Brown is typically relegated to the corner with, I assume, the intention of receiving a pass via drive & kick. Something that also may skew perception against what the stats say, Jaylen is quick to make his decision to shoot. It's not often that he eats 14 seconds off the clock walking the ball up, taking his sweet time asking the 5 to come to the top of the arch to set a pick for the switch and then spend the last 10 seconds of the clock dribbling before pulling a step-back 3.

Jaylen pushes the ball hard in transition, gets out and puts pressure on the defense to collapse into the paint. I much prefer this type of ball-stopping to Tatum's.
Yes... this is what I'm talking about for Jayson... much more succinctly than I of course.
 

RorschachsMask

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Agree with those numbers as well, but my point stands. He has the ball, he passes the ball. If he gets the ball handed right back to him - it's an empty pass. While I'm whining, I'm beginning to dislike him bringing the ball up whenever Kemba or PP are on the court as well, for similar reasons.

I agree Jaylen may be worse - though I am seeing him begin to look for TL a bit more (maybe as a result of TL hitting him with some magical passes of his own?).

My overall point is simply that this team uses no genuine/consistent motion to create easy shots or in general few shots where the Js leverage their own gravity for the betterment of the team. MJ himself didn't win in this league until he figured out how to put others into a position to be successful - ironically some of that involved the triangle offense I was talking about earlier in this thread.
I completely agree with the rest of your post, FWIW. The offense is stagnant, and has very little rhythm.

I also dislike Tatum bringing the ball up the court, he walks it up and the offense gets started with like 16 seconds on the shot clock. Seems like an easy adjustment to make, they just don’t make it.
 

128

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Somebody mentioned Rondo in the game thread, maybe half-jokingly, but I'd love to see how different this offense might look with a capable pass-first point guard running the show.

Have no idea Lonzo Ball is available or what he would cost, but I gotta believe somebody like that would transform the offense. The C's might run a little more, too.
 

RetractableRoof

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Somebody mentioned Rondo in the game thread, maybe half-jokingly, but I'd love to see how different this offense might look with a capable pass-first point guard running the show.

Have no idea Lonzo Ball is available or what he would cost, but I gotta believe somebody like that would transform the offense. The C's might run a little more, too.
Consider every option, but this team is currently has facilitators on it, they just aren't being used in that way or in the case of PP are being ignored. I didn't count them, but possession after possession with PP on the floor resulted in Tatum just strolling the ball up the court against the Cavs last night. This is even occurring when down late in the game and the Cs were trying to get back in it - no push, no search for easy buckets because the ball was in Tatum's hands. Kemba, PP, Smart are all capable of playing with pace and certainly in transition.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Agree with those numbers as well, but my point stands. He has the ball, he passes the ball. If he gets the ball handed right back to him - it's an empty pass. While I'm whining, I'm beginning to dislike him bringing the ball up whenever Kemba or PP are on the court as well, for similar reasons.

I agree Jaylen may be worse - though I am seeing him begin to look for TL a bit more (maybe as a result of TL hitting him with some magical passes of his own?). [Edit: @BillMuellerFanClub assessment about Jaylen's aggression is relevant here though.]

My overall point is simply that this team uses no genuine/consistent motion to create easy shots or in general few shots where the Js leverage their own gravity for the betterment of the team. MJ himself didn't win in this league until he figured out how to put others into a position to be successful - ironically some of that involved the triangle offense I was talking about earlier in this thread.
It's not the offense. We know this because this isn't the first year this offense has been run. We know what Brad's offense is designed to do and what can be done with it.

The Cs really miss GH - as Brad noted last year, he had a "settling effect" on the team - which is why I was super disappointed that he took his talents elsewhere. They miss GH getting into the lane and making the correct basketball play, which was usually trying to pass to an open shooter. Even if the shooter didn't shoot, at least there was ball movement.

To me, the problem with the offense is two-fold. (1) When JB and JT get into the paint, they look to score. There was a play down the stretch last night where DT wasn't even being guarded in the left corner and JT (I think) didn't see him but certainly didn't get the ball to him. Ball goes into paint; defense collapses; tough shot follows.

As far as I can tell, when JB and JT get the ball into the paint, they rarely kick it out. I wonder if anyone has any stats on this.

And I don't think this is a function of teammates. Kicking the balls to corners or wings doesn't necessarily have to result in a shot to be effective. It gets the defense in rotation and then the ball can move faster than the defense - which we all know since we see opponents do it time and time again. It's a function of JT and JB needing to learn this IMO.

(2) As much discussed, when JB and JT drive, they look to create separation not contact so they can't stem shooting droughts by going to the FT line.
 

RetractableRoof

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I think one of the most frustrating parts of all of this stagnant, iso ball BS is the the talent sitting on the bench. If they are playing a motion, slashing game, then TL will be amplified, Jaylen's game is stronger, Green can be on the court more. There are more possessions, more points to be had. I just don't understand the acceptance of this stagnant losing approach.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Somebody mentioned Rondo in the game thread, maybe half-jokingly, but I'd love to see how different this offense might look with a capable pass-first point guard running the show.

Have no idea Lonzo Ball is available or what he would cost, but I gotta believe somebody like that would transform the offense. The C's might run a little more, too.
I’m not sure it even matters if Tatum and Brown aren’t willing to buy into a movement-heavy offense. The ball stops once it hits their hands regardless of the guy who throws it to them. My hope at this point is that they’ll play better offense when they have guys around them they can trust to make big shots. They need a legitimate stretch big (I don’t care what his 3P% is, no one trusts Theis to make threes when it’s late and the game is close), and another wing who is actually capable of handling a basketball.
 

RetractableRoof

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It's not the offense. We know this because this isn't the first year this offense has been run. We know what Brad's offense is designed to do and what can be done with it.

The Cs really miss GH - as Brad noted last year, he had a "settling effect" on the team - which is why I was super disappointed that he took his talents elsewhere. They miss GH getting into the lane and making the correct basketball play, which was usually trying to pass to an open shooter. Even if the shooter didn't shoot, at least there was ball movement.

To me, the problem with the offense is two-fold. (1) When JB and JT get into the paint, they look to score. There was a play down the stretch last night where DT wasn't even being guarded in the left corner and JT (I think) didn't see him but certainly didn't get the ball to him. Ball goes into paint; defense collapses; tough shot follows.

As far as I can tell, when JB and JT get the ball into the paint, they rarely kick it out. I wonder if anyone has any stats on this.

And I don't think this is a function of teammates. Kicking the balls to corners or wings doesn't necessarily have to result in a shot to be effective. It gets the defense in rotation and then the ball can move faster than the defense - which we all know since we see opponents do it time and time again. It's a function of JT and JB needing to learn this IMO.

(2) As much discussed, when JB and JT drive, they look to create separation not contact so they can't stem shooting droughts by going to the FT line.
Semantics on my part perhaps. It IS the offense if your two young stars aren't implementing it as designed, or asked for. If they CAN'T do it, then the offense has to be changed so they can. If they WON'T do it, then they need to be forced into an offense where it happens whether they want it or not.

As to the ball doesn't have to be shot to be effective (after a kickout), I disagree to the degree that if the other team doesn't respect the shot, it doesn't create the spacing that benefits the Js. This is the MJ conundrum all over again. He knows that if the ball is in his hands, there is a high(er) percentage of a chance they score. Then he scores a magical number, and the team wins some because 'Michael', but loses often because the supporting cast sucks. Except part of the reason the supporting cast sucks is a lack of rhythm and motion keeping them involved enough to be confident to make the shots. Until the Js learn, or are forced into a more successful style of play on the court, this is a frustrating carousel of basketball to watch. Round and round we go.

Hayward (IMO) left because he saw that the Js were operating as the stars, without the ability to use their gravity to help the team win. He came from Utah, to Stevens for a chance to play a team game with skilled players - where he wouldn't be the only star. He facilitated for a long time (when actually on the court), but when push came to shove, for the foreseeable future the ball was going to be in the hands of one of the Js. If that wasn't going to result in a championship, why not go where he can be the guy with the ball in his hand, making more of the right decisions? If nothing else, on a nighty basis that is a more fun game for him, than waiting for a kickout that wasn't going to come, in order to make the right pass. He is also a rhythm player, so the Js style hampered his ability to excel as well.

Note: I'm not trashing the Js. I'm observing where they are in this moment of time and trying to assess. If they CAN'T, or WON'T - change the offense so they HAVE to leverage their gravity for the team. If aren't running the designed/intended offense, then that falls on Ainge to change - either by decree, or changing the offense (via changing the coach or whatever), or by moving parts to get the desired result.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I’m not sure it even matters if Tatum and Brown aren’t willing to buy into a movement-heavy offense. The ball stops once it hits their hands regardless of the guy who throws it to them. My hope at this point is that they’ll play better offense when they have guys around them they can trust to make big shots. They need a legitimate stretch big (I don’t care what his 3P% is, no one trusts Theis to make threes when it’s late and the game is close), and another wing who is actually capable of handling a basketball.
Who are they going to pass to? The offense is literally designed to stop the ball when it hits their hands. If you have a big, and one of them playing the screen game at the top of the key and the other 3 guys are literally doing nothing outside the 3 point line, why bother passing it? A tough shot from Tatum or Brown is better than a contested shot from anyone else on this team, and they are all contested shots because there is no off the ball movement.

Here is a 4:30 minute clip of Tatum's highlights in January. Please someone find me 5 plays where at least 3 other Celtics aren't standing around at the 3 point line doing nothing. This offense is the most stagnant offense I've ever seen, and if its' not by design, the players are ignoring the coach. If it is by design, this is on Brad as much, if not more, than it is on the players. At the 1:25 mark, even Scal mentions how it's basically Tatum and 4 guys standing around doing nothing. There is no upside kicking out to a covered Grant or Semi or Teague, they're just going to pass it to another covered guy. I don't think I could find one baseline cut from a Celtic player in the last couple months. The two wings in the corners are the two wings in the corners. That's where they go, that's where they stay.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9-evgJl1Os
 

tbrown_01923

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I do wonder if there are after effcts of the knee/covid/compressed schdule limiting the impact of the Js. Agree on their willingness to ball stop/iso - the team is no fun to watch. But they are not as effcective as they were to start the yr. Were they just lucky at the start or is there something different now?
 

RorschachsMask

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The offense is guys just standing around, there’s very little motion, it’s just PnR after PnR, which is great if you have a Harden or someone who is an equal threat to score, kick it out or throw a lob, but Tatum isn’t nearly there yet, as bullish as I am on his upside as a playmaker.

Now you can’t blame Brad for the offense, or Danny for not getting the right players for the personnel, but the offense is hideous. I don’t think either of the Jays are trying to play selfishly, they just think it’sthe best way for the team to win games.

They are now 7-13 when Jaylen scores 25+, and I believe 10-13 when Tatum does. So it’s not really the case, but they are young, and it takes time to learn how to make guys around you better.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Semantics on my part perhaps. It IS the offense if your two young stars aren't implementing it as designed, or asked for. If they CAN'T do it, then the offense has to be changed so they can. If they WON'T do it, then they need to be forced into an offense where it happens whether they want it or not.

As to the ball doesn't have to be shot to be effective (after a kickout), I disagree to the degree that if the other team doesn't respect the shot, it doesn't create the spacing that benefits the Js. This is the MJ conundrum all over again. He knows that if the ball is in his hands, there is a high(er) percentage of a chance they score. Then he scores a magical number, and the team wins some because 'Michael', but loses often because the supporting cast sucks. Except part of the reason the supporting cast sucks is a lack of rhythm and motion keeping them involved enough to be confident to make the shots. Until the Js learn, or are forced into a more successful style of play on the court, this is a frustrating carousel of basketball to watch. Round and round we go.

Hayward (IMO) left because he saw that the Js were operating as the stars, without the ability to use their gravity to help the team win. He came from Utah, to Stevens for a chance to play a team game with skilled players - where he wouldn't be the only star. He facilitated for a long time, but when push came to shove, for the foreseeable future the ball was going to be in the hands of one of the Js. If that wasn't going to result in a championship, why not go where he can be the guy with the ball in his hand, making more of the right decisions? If nothing else, on a nighty basis that is a more fun game for him, than waiting for a kickout that wasn't going to come, in order to make the right pass. He is also a rhythm player, so the Js style harmed his ability to play as well.

Note: I'm not trashing the Js. I'm observing where they are in this moment of time and trying to assess. If they CAN'T, or WON'T - change the offense so they HAVE to leverage their gravity for the team. If aren't running the designed/intended offense, then that falls on Ainge to change - either by decree, or changing the offense (via changing the coach or whatever), or by moving parts to get the desired result.
As I said in the Coach Brad thread, when I checked in the pre-season, the Cs were the youngest team in the NBA with championship aspirations. They are super young, particularly if KW isn't playing.

I don't think it's a question of can't or won't right now. It's a question of how much further they have to grow. We should all note that we're pretty spoiled - that JB and JT have exceeded every reasonable projection we had when they were drafted. They are also 24 and 22 and as many people have noted, they are doing more this year in terms of assists than they've done before.

So to me, it's not a question of "CAN'T" or "WON'T". It's a question of whether they will learn what it takes to win big games in the NBA - on both sides of the floor.

For both players, their growth (well except for JB's bump his second year) has been pretty steady. At this point, their growth will be more incremental. I think they are still growing so I'm not particularly worried about their record this year. Frankly, it's probably better than they lose games like this than pull out a victory at the last moment.
 

RorschachsMask

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I do wonder if there are after effcts of the knee/covid/compressed schdule limiting the impact of the Js. Agree on their willingness to ball stop/iso - the team is no fun to watch. But they are not as effcective as they were to start the yr. Were they just lucky at the start or is there something different now?
Through the first 10-15 games Jaylen was shooting 30% better than Durants career numbers from 16-3PT, while taking twice as many shots as he ever had from that range.

Tatum was shooting 45% from deep on 8-9 attempts, I think he is an elite outside shooter, but it’s tough to shoot that percentage with the level of difficulty of his threes.

Natural course correction happened, on top of Smart going down for as long as he did. Plus Jaylen had the knee for a bit, and Tatum was clearly dealing with post covid issues for awhile.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The offense is guys just standing around, there’s very little motion, it’s just PnR after PnR, which is great if you have a Harden or someone who is an equal threat to score, kick it out or throw a lob, but Tatum isn’t nearly there yet, as bullish as I am on his upside as a playmaker.
What do you think UT did? They had DM or Conley initiate a PnR; they got into the paint; and either they went to Gorbert in the middle or the ball kicked out. In either case, the PnR forced help; the defense lost shape and was in rotation; and the ball beat the defender to an open shot.

That's pretty much all any NBA offense does with star players because it's typically impossible to guard the PnR given the freedom of movement rules.
 

Strike4

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I think the stagnation/distribution problem is like a vicious cycle where the team is playing in a distributive way early in the game (and the J's are on the bench) but then the team hits a rough patch (poor bench play, shots don't fall, etc.). Then the J's - now trying to be leaders since Kyrie's departure - come in and feel the need to take the team on their shoulders to win. This manifests as them taking and making great, difficult shots - but also in them clearly ignoring other players for open shots and often forcing impossible ones of their own.
 

RorschachsMask

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What do you think UT did? They had DM or Conley initiate a PnR; they got into the paint; and either they went to Gorbert in the middle or the ball kicked out. In either case, the PnR forced help; the defense lost shape and was in rotation; and the ball beat the defender to an open shot.

That's pretty much all any NBA offense does with star players because it's typically impossible to guard the PnR given the freedom of movement rules.
I’m not disagreeing with this, I just don’t think they really have the personnel to run that style of offense and it be consistent, yet. Utah has guys moving around off the ball quite a bit though, at least to the eye. On top of that, they have guys who are much more open to swinging the ball. I feel like Smart is the only guy on this team who consistently swings the ball.

That’s why I don’t put a ton of blame on Brad, I think it’s an everyone issue.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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What do you think UT did? They had DM or Conley initiate a PnR; they got into the paint; and either they went to Gorbert in the middle or the ball kicked out. In either case, the PnR forced help; the defense lost shape and was in rotation; and the ball beat the defender to an open shot.

That's pretty much all any NBA offense does with star players because it's typically impossible to guard the PnR given the freedom of movement rules.
Yeah it looks worse on our end because the Celtics are not a team of good passers, and guys tend to take the pretty open look vs. make the extra pass or two that will lead to the wide open look. A team like Utah and other good teams have players like Ingles/Bojan who can shoot, drive, and pass. When you watch Semi or Grant receive a pass, on the other hand, you can usually see their soul leave their body the second they realize they don't have time to shoot and must make some other decision. This is a big problem for guys combining for 30+ wing minutes.

Marcus will make the early pass, and sometimes Kemba. Brown and Tatum are improving but are usually a tick or more late with making the right pass. I am a fan of Jaylen's recent interior passing efforts with TL. Just need to keep improving, and get more players that can pass/shoot/drive.
 
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Light-Tower-Power

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The style of offense they're playing this
The offense is guys just standing around, there’s very little motion, it’s just PnR after PnR, which is great if you have a Harden or someone who is an equal threat to score, kick it out or throw a lob, but Tatum isn’t nearly there yet, as bullish as I am on his upside as a playmaker.

Now you can’t blame Brad for the offense, or Danny for not getting the right players for the personnel, but the offense is hideous. I don’t think either of the Jays are trying to play selfishly, they just think it’sthe best way for the team to win games.

They are now 7-13 when Jaylen scores 25+, and I believe 10-13 when Tatum does. So it’s not really the case, but they are young, and it takes time to learn how to make guys around you better.
I can't really blame them for this because prime MJ isn't making Semi or Grant Williams any better. Follow the yellow brick road all the way back to the tire fire that is this roster outside the top few guys. Bottom line is I don't think there's an easy fix or switch to be flipped. I'm sure Brad has tried to get them to implement more ball movement within the offense a million times and it just hasn't happened. I don't know what needs to happen to fix this, but they've got major problems and I worry that the bridge of this bridge year leads to nowhere.
 

Deathofthebambino

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When Kemba or Smart are at the top of the key, why do we never see Jaylen or Tatum using an off ball screen to get open? When Tatum brings the ball up, why is Brown relegated to the corner or wing and just standing there. Semi and Grant literally do nothing but stand in one spot and hope for a kick out when they are open, but a lot of times, they aren't even open because our lead dogs aren't great at driving and distributing, and if Kemba blows by his guy, he's going to get stuffed by someone down low anyway, so people don't need to drop down to cut him off.

There needs to be movement. Not just ball movement. Fucking any movement. If Ingles or Joe Harris or Bogdanovich or (pick your good shooter) were on this team, running this same offense, they wouldn't do any better than Semi or Grant because they'd never be open either. They might knock down a couple more, but for the most part, they'd just be planted in the corner growing roots under their feet.
 

CSteinhardt

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By eye, it almost looks like the Celtics think they don't have the conditioning they need. They walk the ball up the court, so they're starting the possessions too late in the clock. Once it gets into the frontcourt, there's one person with the ball and four people standing still waiting for something to happen. It just looks like there's this idea of trying to score with minimum energy, rather than with maximum efficiency.

I can kind of understand why that's happening with a short offseason (and shorter than most other teams) and some injuries to shot creators. But they're not good enough to save energy on offense and still beat good NBA teams.
 

slamminsammya

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This is a nonstandard use of the term "ball stopping" since usually that is a euphemism for passing but when I say Tatum is the biggest ballstopper I mean it in the most literal sense. When Jaylen gets the ball he immediately goes into a move. He isn't a great passer but he attacks decisively and doesn't leave the defense a lot of time to load up or get set. Jayson's style on the other hand is frequently to receive the ball, wait two seconds, get into a move slowly, etc.
 

RorschachsMask

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This is a nonstandard use of the term "ball stopping" since usually that is a euphemism for passing but when I say Tatum is the biggest ballstopper I mean it in the most literal sense. When Jaylen gets the ball he immediately goes into a move. He isn't a great passer but he attacks decisively and doesn't leave the defense a lot of time to load up or get set. Jayson's style on the other hand is frequently to receive the ball, wait two seconds, get into a move slowly, etc.
This is all correct, but a big part of this is defenses load up on Tatum any time he makes a move with the ball. I get frustrated with how slow he makes decisions at times, but he is the only guy on the team that the defense consistently forces to have to think and make decisions.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm not being snarky, but how many of Tatum's passes are just given right back to him? He is not distributing, and any stat that makes it look like he is doesn't add any value to me.
Tatums Ast% has gone from 8.3 to 10.0 to 14.5 to 20.4 during his first four seasons. The optics show him in iso once the clock is under 10 which happens with all first options across the league. It may happen more this season to Tatum with his teammates struggling to create their own shots. When he’s sharing the floor with any combination of Pritchard, Semi, Grant, Javonte/Nesmith, and Teague’s corpse along with none of our 3 centers being shot creators......he’s gong to end up bailing out the offense frequently which is what we’ve been seeing. This is on Ainge and the personnel. We are fortunate to have two guys so good at creating out of iso or this offense would look like the C’s in the year Pierce left.
 

Cellar-Door

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One thing that stands out on Tatum and Brown this year in a negative way is their shot distribution.
Jaylen is taking way less 3s and layups (0-3), and way more shots in each of the 3-10, 10-16, 16-3pt areas.
Tatum is way down on layups, and down of 3s, and is up on 3-10 and 10-16.

They aren't getting to the rim, and they are taking far too many mid-range shots. This team isn't a contender if they keep that shot profile.
 

teddykgb

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Tatums Ast% has gone from 8.3 to 10.0 to 14.5 to 20.4 during his first four seasons. The optics show him in iso once the clock is under 10 which happens with all first options across the league. It may happen more this season to Tatum with his teammates struggling to create their own shots. When he’s sharing the floor with any combination of Pritchard, Semi, Grant, Javonte/Nesmith, and Teague’s corpse along with none of our 3 centers being shot creators......he’s gong to end up bailing out the offense frequently which is what we’ve been seeing. This is on Ainge and the personnel. We are fortunate to have two guys so good at creating out of iso or this offense would look like the C’s in the year Pierce left.
I think this is true. But you’d expect even his % to go up as his usage and minutes increased.
He’s clearly still figuring it out. I don’t know if it’s his or Brads preferences but I don’t think he’s being helped by consistently getting the ball in the same spot and same action. He’s pretty much always trying to create from the top left with every defender stating at him. He may never have the handle for that to be his best play. He’s still relatively poor at finishing in traffic so the threat to go all the way is only moderately high and he isn’t a tricky enough dribbler to really trouble teams in the mid range either. I think his best skill by far is his combination of length and shooting and I wonder why we don’t see him doing a lot more work against off ball screens and coming around via motion to give him more of a head start against defenders and the always open option of just catching and shooting. It seems to me he profiles into more of that kind of player but instead of asking him to be a big Beal or Paul George we keep asking him to be Lebron or Giannis and I don’t know that he’s ever going to be a guy who can get to the rim and cause chaos no matter who is on front of him
 

HomeRunBaker

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One thing that stands out on Tatum and Brown this year in a negative way is their shot distribution.
Jaylen is taking way less 3s and layups (0-3), and way more shots in each of the 3-10, 10-16, 16-3pt areas.
Tatum is way down on layups, and down of 3s, and is up on 3-10 and 10-16.

They aren't getting to the rim, and they are taking far too many mid-range shots. This team isn't a contender if they keep that shot profile.
This was really evident in the Jazz game. We kept taking contested 2’s while Utah were getting clean catch-and-shoot 3’s.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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When Kemba or Smart are at the top of the key, why do we never see Jaylen or Tatum using an off ball screen to get open? When Tatum brings the ball up, why is Brown relegated to the corner or wing and just standing there. Semi and Grant literally do nothing but stand in one spot and hope for a kick out when they are open, but a lot of times, they aren't even open because our lead dogs aren't great at driving and distributing, and if Kemba blows by his guy, he's going to get stuffed by someone down low anyway, so people don't need to drop down to cut him off.

There needs to be movement. Not just ball movement. Fucking any movement. If Ingles or Joe Harris or Bogdanovich or (pick your good shooter) were on this team, running this same offense, they wouldn't do any better than Semi or Grant because they'd never be open either. They might knock down a couple more, but for the most part, they'd just be planted in the corner growing roots under their feet.
The Cs run every play in basketball. Well almost every play (Brad said about a month ago that he started running stuff from a few years back to try to get more motion). Below is a bunch of a video of their offense from last season and they are basically running the same stuff. They run horns, they run pin-downs; we all know they run PnR; etc.

Brad didn't forget how to coach offense between IT4 and this squad.

Everyone - even Brad - knows that the Cs go ISO-heavy. I think that's a player issue not a coaching issue. As HRB notes above, JB and JT are getting better about involving other players. Hopefully they continue getting better.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A_C5QOot9o
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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We are 40-odd games into the NBA season. There is useable data and it while eye test coaching tweaks and theories about ball movement may be entirely valid, the numbers are elemental.

The Celtics are a middling offensive team and if you carve out Tatum and Brown's offense, leaving all else equal, they drop in most key offensive categories. What's worse is that you cannot assume all else equal because Tatum and Brown create spacing for the "all else". Without their three point shooting, the C's overall 3p% falls from ~37.5 to 36.9% but it would likely be worse because even without being uber distributors, they still create opportunities for their teammates.

The Celtics are middle of the pack in LEBRON. They are middle of the pack if you look at RAPTOR or offensive rating. You can use your white board and draw up all sorts of plays or think about ways to create ball movement. But the reality is that until the Celtics upgrade the talent around these guys, this is likely to be the outcome, regardless of how creative you get with sets.
 

Deathofthebambino

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The Cs run every play in basketball. Well almost every play (Brad said about a month ago that he started running stuff from a few years back to try to get more motion). Below is a bunch of a video of their offense from last season and they are basically running the same stuff. They run horns, they run pin-downs; we all know they run PnR; etc.

Brad didn't forget how to coach offense between IT4 and this squad.

Everyone - even Brad - knows that the Cs go ISO-heavy. I think that's a player issue not a coaching issue. As HRB notes above, JB and JT are getting better about involving other players. Hopefully they continue getting better.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A_C5QOot9o
There are more cuts being made off the ball in 3 minutes of that highlight reel than the C's have made in the last 2 months of this season. Most of them involve Gordon Hayward in one way or another. But there's also plenty of standing around doing nothing by a lot of guys, but it's a highlight reel, so the shots are going down in every one of them.

Same with this video of the Jazz from this season, but count how many highlights involve Rudy Gobert setting a pick at the top of the key? In fact, there are almost no PnR's anywhere in their offense. The Jazz play an inside out game with Gobert from the foul line down where he catches, then kicks, guys are moving sometimes through the key, but a lot of times, they are moving around the perimeter leading to so many open 3's. I don't actually have a problem with the C's going ISO with Tatum and Brown, because I think Tatum and Brown 1on1 with most defenders is a good shot for the C's. It's the fact that there is nothing else going on, and if those guys aren't hot, there isn't any plan B anymore. When TimeLord is setting a pick for Tatum 30 feet from the hoop, the end result is almost always going to be an ISO with 3 other guys doing literally nothing, and that ISO usually leads to a long 2 or contested step back 3....It's time to change up this offense, and not once per game so we can point to the one time they made a backdoor cut per week.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btz7flmGI9k