Analysis of Celtics Games (2020-2021)

NomarsFool

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I will give Brad credit for giving Nesmith a consistent run of several games to see what he could do. I didn’t personally see what was so bad about his play to send him to the deep end of the bench, but at least it was some consistency in playing time. Since then we’ve been back to sometimes Grant sometimes Teague sometimes Semi. Edwards was certainly a surprise. I don’t buy the “rewarding guys for practice” thing because they aren’t practicing.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Just to be clear, you believe Semi and Grant have been productive with their opportunities? Teague had a decent week last week IMO, but aside from that, what kind of production are we getting from him? Javonte Green?

The lack of playing time for Nesmith with those guys in front of him is mind-boggling. Or to a lesser extent, PP, who at least finds his way onto the floor on occasion. I have no idea what Nesmith can or will be, but I know in the 7 games where he played 22 minutes a night, he wasn't out there hurting the team. These guys are actively hurting the team regularly, and we're just going to keep sending them out there, while he hangs around on the bench. I want to know what Brad saw in those 7 games that completely turned him off to Nesmith, because I sure as hell didn't see it.

Reggie was in here blasting away over and over again about the 1 game where Nesmith played 22 minutes and didn't take a shot (which is kind of hard to do when you're relegated to standing in a corner sucking your thumb on offense), but nobody seems concerned that in 10 games this season where he played 14+ minutes, Semi has taken either 0,1 or 2 shots. The other night, he played 19 minutes, zero shots. In his last 11 games, Grant Williams is averaging 16mpg, and averaging 3.1fga. In those 11 games, he's shooting .412/.313/.625.

If these guys were playing some sort of Dennis Rodman level defense, I'd have no problem plugging them in there over anyone, but we all know they aren't even playing decent defense, so what are we waiting for? When do we change something?

Sacramento tonight, we'll see what happens...
For better or worse, I always try and call it like I see it. On draft night I was fine with the Nesmith pick as he was pretty much the entire Vanderbilt offense last year before it being cut short a month by injury. The team was disjointed and the offense fell apart for several weeks once he left the lineup. Granted, I didn’t watch a ton of Commodore basketball last year but from what I saw, and the teams response after he went down, I felt this was a fine pick.

My evaluation of this player in a Celtics uniform differs from what some here see and much different than what I saw in the limited time at Vandy. When a coach like Brad is holding a guy back I trust that there is something he sees in workouts/practice that we are not privy to. Brad talked about how hard Nesmith was working which to me is an enormous tell that there is an underlying issue if he’s working that hard and isn’t on the floor over the dreck he was putting out there.

Once given an opportunity he worked his ass off defensively and I praised him for that over the first 3-4 games. Once that adrenaline wore off he became a JAG out there on defense but it was offensively where he was lost, unable to create his own shot, and struggling with his handle, confidence and ability to create off the dribble. Maybe most disturbing was his deer in headlights appearance while deferring to others (which Ainge alluded to when referring to certain young players). There were several cringe moments in a couple of his final games that showed me he isn’t yet an NBA rotation player and no really even close to being one. I’m not hating the kid.....I liked him as a player originally, he works hard according to sources but my evaluation of him from what I’ve seen is that right now he simply can’t play in this league. If he shows Brad something in workouts or should he get another opportunity due to injuries that could change I’m sure.......but from my seat he’s got a lot of work to do to play in this league.
 

Deathofthebambino

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For better or worse, I always try and call it like I see it. On draft night I was fine with the Nesmith pick as he was pretty much the entire Vanderbilt offense last year before it being cut short a month by injury. The team was disjointed and the offense fell apart for several weeks once he left the lineup. Granted, I didn’t watch a ton of Commodore basketball last year but from what I saw, and the teams response after he went down, I felt this was a fine pick.

My evaluation of this player in a Celtics uniform differs from what some here see and much different than what I saw in the limited time at Vandy. When a coach like Brad is holding a guy back I trust that there is something he sees in workouts/practice that we are not privy to. Brad talked about how hard Nesmith was working which to me is an enormous tell that there is an underlying issue if he’s working that hard and isn’t on the floor over the dreck he was putting out there.

Once given an opportunity he worked his ass off defensively and I praised him for that over the first 3-4 games. Once that adrenaline wore off he became a JAG out there on defense but it was offensively where he was lost, unable to create his own shot, and struggling with his handle, confidence and ability to create off the dribble. Maybe most disturbing was his deer in headlights appearance while deferring to others (which Ainge alluded to when referring to certain young players). There were several cringe moments in a couple of his final games that showed me he isn’t yet an NBA rotation player and no really even close to being one. I’m not hating the kid.....I liked him as a player originally, he works hard according to sources but my evaluation of him from what I’ve seen is that right now he simply can’t play in this league. If he shows Brad something in workouts or should he get another opportunity due to injuries that could change I’m sure.......but from my seat he’s got a lot of work to do to play in this league.
I'm not saying he's ready to be an NBA rotational player either. I'm certainly not calling for him to get 25+ minutes a night. But to the bolded, everything you are criticizing him for on offense is also true of Semi and Grant. Neither of those guys can create their own shot, their handles are worse than Nesmith's IMO, and we know they can't create off the dribble. I am not normally a guy that believes in playing the kids. I'm the guy that argues for bringing them along slowly. I have a problem though when we're playing .500 ball, losing regularly to the dregs of the league and our #14 pick in the draft is being benched behind guys that literally do nothing better than he does, and maybe, they are even worse than he is.

Like I said upthread, in his last 11 games, Grant Williams is averaging 3.1fga per game over 16mpg and he's shooting .412/.313/.625
In the 8 games that Brad played Nesmith, he averaged 19mpg, shot 3.3fga, and shot .500/.421/.657.

Nesmith also averaged 3.6rpg in those 19 minutes. Semi is currently averaging 2.8rpg in 19mpg on the season. Grant is averaging 3.0rpb on 18mpg this season. So in limited time, Nesmith was actually a better rebounder than either of them, mostly because he actually hustles, and has a modicum of NBA athleticism....

I'm just not a fan of not changing things up at least a little bit when seasons go like this. I'm not calling for Brad's firing, or massive adjustments to the offense (I mean, if NBA pros aren't capable of doing more on offense than running a high PnR with 3 guys standing around, they aren't NBA players) or giving Nesmith starter's minutes. But I'd love to see some incremental changes when this team is getting hammered by the Cleveland fucking Cavaliers.
 

RetractableRoof

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I'm not saying he's ready to be an NBA rotational player either. I'm certainly not calling for him to get 25+ minutes a night. But to the bolded, everything you are criticizing him for on offense is also true of Semi and Grant. Neither of those guys can create their own shot, their handles are worse than Nesmith's IMO, and we know they can't create off the dribble. I am not normally a guy that believes in playing the kids. I'm the guy that argues for bringing them along slowly. I have a problem though when we're playing .500 ball, losing regularly to the dregs of the league and our #14 pick in the draft is being benched behind guys that literally do nothing better than he does, and maybe, they are even worse than he is.

Like I said upthread, in his last 11 games, Grant Williams is averaging 3.1fga per game over 16mpg and he's shooting .412/.313/.625
In the 8 games that Brad played Nesmith, he averaged 19mpg, shot 3.3fga, and shot .500/.421/.657.

Nesmith also averaged 3.6rpg in those 19 minutes. Semi is currently averaging 2.8rpg in 19mpg on the season. Grant is averaging 3.0rpb on 18mpg this season. So in limited time, Nesmith was actually a better rebounder than either of them, mostly because he actually hustles, and has a modicum of NBA athleticism....

I'm just not a fan of not changing things up at least a little bit when seasons go like this. I'm not calling for Brad's firing, or massive adjustments to the offense (I mean, if NBA pros aren't capable of doing more on offense than running a high PnR with 3 guys standing around, they aren't NBA players) or giving Nesmith starter's minutes. But I'd love to see some incremental changes when this team is getting hammered by the Cleveland fucking Cavaliers.
Ditto.

Ditto the bolded twice. Add a motion set to the offense in a hotel ballroom walkthrough the morning before the Cavaliers game - BB can successfully add offensive plays the morning of the Superbowl, why the hell can't the Cs add a piece or two every couple of days. Something is better than nothing. Honestly, I'm tired of the cream of the athletic crop being carried around on peoples shoulders as heroes... but then folks say they aren't capable of incremental skill acquisition mid-season because it's "too hard". These are the same guys who can get to level 74 of some damn video game - they can figure out some basic rules of motion offense in bits and pieces. When 10 year olds can figure out the concepts, adults can too. Execution is vastly different in the professional arena, but don't tell me it's too hard.

Edit: removed the fan boy "we".
 

NomarsFool

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On a different topic, I think I saw a statistic that the Celtics are winless against the 5? best teams in the NBA. I don't have the statistic, but I feel like they have also played pretty poorly against the cellar of the NBA as well (although there is a lot of parity so to speak after the top teams). If that's the case, it's interesting that they have somehow managed to do well against the mid-tier NBA teams for some reason.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm not saying he's ready to be an NBA rotational player either. I'm certainly not calling for him to get 25+ minutes a night. But to the bolded, everything you are criticizing him for on offense is also true of Semi and Grant. Neither of those guys can create their own shot, their handles are worse than Nesmith's IMO, and we know they can't create off the dribble. I am not normally a guy that believes in playing the kids. I'm the guy that argues for bringing them along slowly. I have a problem though when we're playing .500 ball, losing regularly to the dregs of the league and our #14 pick in the draft is being benched behind guys that literally do nothing better than he does, and maybe, they are even worse than he is.

Like I said upthread, in his last 11 games, Grant Williams is averaging 3.1fga per game over 16mpg and he's shooting .412/.313/.625
In the 8 games that Brad played Nesmith, he averaged 19mpg, shot 3.3fga, and shot .500/.421/.657.

Nesmith also averaged 3.6rpg in those 19 minutes. Semi is currently averaging 2.8rpg in 19mpg on the season. Grant is averaging 3.0rpb on 18mpg this season. So in limited time, Nesmith was actually a better rebounder than either of them, mostly because he actually hustles, and has a modicum of NBA athleticism....

I'm just not a fan of not changing things up at least a little bit when seasons go like this. I'm not calling for Brad's firing, or massive adjustments to the offense (I mean, if NBA pros aren't capable of doing more on offense than running a high PnR with 3 guys standing around, they aren't NBA players) or giving Nesmith starter's minutes. But I'd love to see some incremental changes when this team is getting hammered by the Cleveland fucking Cavaliers.
The problem I see with promoting Nesmith over Semi/Grant is that one is a backcourt/wing defender while the other two are more versatile and are primarily playing the 4 and sometimes defending bigs in the paint. Nesmiths minutes seem to have gone to Teague initially and now that Smart has returned it would take backcourt injuries for him to get another opportunity as he isn’t fighting for the Semi/Grant minutes.

I agree with you on the shakeup. I think there will be multiple second/third unit players moved in and out of the roster at the deadline......and hopefully Barnes brought in to take the Semi/Grant/2-Big minutes.
 

Deathofthebambino

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The problem I see with promoting Nesmith over Semi/Grant is that one is a backcourt/wing defender while the other two are more versatile and are primarily playing the 4 and sometimes defending bigs in the paint. Nesmiths minutes seem to have gone to Teague initially and now that Smart has returned it would take backcourt injuries for him to get another opportunity as he isn’t fighting for the Semi/Grant minutes.

I agree with you on the shakeup. I think there will be multiple second/third unit players moved in and out of the roster at the deadline......and hopefully Barnes brought in to take the Semi/Grant/2-Big minutes.
I thought with the emergence of TimeLord, and Theis and TT playing pretty well, we'd start seeing less of Grant and Semi for the exact same reason, but it hasn't been the case so far. I know Brad said last week that he wants to sit one of them during each game while they go through this crazy stretch, so I can see the argument for playing one or the other when an opposing team is actually throwing 2 bigs on the floor.

But we aren't getting beat because of interior defense. We're getting absolutely fucking destroyed night and night out on the perimeter. And that's partially because guys like Semi and Grant are turnstiles on the outside. If he wants to throw Grant in there when an opposing team has a center and a true PF, I'll concede that's fine, but is that really happening much? I wouldn't mind seeing Tatum defending a 4 in the post than Semi or Grant, because his perimeter defense has been terrible too.

Smart's return will certainly set back minutes for AN and PP, but if we can't find minutes for them while losing to teams we should beat (roster construction be damned when you're losing to Detroit and Washington and Cleveland), while giving big minutes to Semi and Grant when the opposition is beating us with open 3 after open 3, then I don't know how we'll ever find them minutes.
 

Cesar Crespo

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On a different topic, I think I saw a statistic that the Celtics are winless against the 5? best teams in the NBA. I don't have the statistic, but I feel like they have also played pretty poorly against the cellar of the NBA as well (although there is a lot of parity so to speak after the top teams). If that's the case, it's interesting that they have somehow managed to do well against the mid-tier NBA teams for some reason.
It's almost like they are a mid tier team themselves. The C's really aren't in that great of a position going forward either. We have Tatum and Brown. Maybe TL. We can hope and pray on Romeo and Aaron.

A team like the Bulls have Carter, Lauri, LaVine, Williams and White. The Hawks have Hunter, Collins*, Young, Huerter, Reddish. The Hornets have Washington, Monk, Ball, Bridges.

It's never as bad as it looks though, because 1 player can swing everything. If TL evolves into a 30 minute 2 way player putting up 14/12/3/2/1, that moves the needle a bit. Romeo and/or Aaron turning into 25-30 minute rotational players would also do the trick.

They also have the TPE that is probably their best option to add the 3rd piece to the Jays. If that doesn't pan out, it should net at least a rotational player or two but it puts the C's in a terrible position. They'd have to either get very lucky in the draft or pray RN or AL make the leap.

Someone on this board yesterday said they could envision TL scoring 20 a night, or at least 20.0 per 36.. I'm guessing in a universe where TL scores 20 points a night that more than 1/3 of his FGs aren't dunks, that he's getting to the line 5-6 times a game, that he''d be racking up assists, and that some plays would be drawn for him. His range would have expanded some too. I'd guess he'd be putting up something like 20/12/4/2/1 shooting 60-65%. I don't see him ever scoring 20 points a night anyway, but especially not getting to the line 2.7 times per 36. Even at 70% FG%, he'd need 13 FGA a night. He's averaging 9.6 FGA/36 this season. At a 65% FG% and 6 FTA/G at 70% FT%, he'd need 12 FGA. All this assumes no 3s. Either way, it means he's a legit threat and 3rd scoring option. Add in great defense and he's a top 20 player. Arguably the best player on the C's. That would move the needle from H to F. That version of TL also gets paid a lot more than 4/40-4/60. Maybe the max. Add that to the Jays and they compete for the title year in, year out. May as well give TL a 3 point shot while we are it.

I like TL and think as soon as next year he'll be averaging something like 25.0 mpg, 10/10/2/2/1. I'd like the C's to lock him up soon for 4/48 or so. I see him more like Marcus Smart than Tatum or Brown though.



Long story short, the team's future outlook isn't nearly as bright as it was a few years ago and other teams have caught up/surpassed us in that regard. But it's the NBA. It only takes one player to change everything. Right now, the team is kind of in NBA no mans land. Not good enough to win a title without a lot of injury luck, not bad enough for the lottery. They've lost a lot of talent to FA over the years and very little to show for the last 3 drafts to date. TL is starting to look like a get but he's also in his 3rd season and has played a total of 1223 minutes in his career. For comparison sake: Semi played 1150 his rookie year. RL has less than 400 in more than 1 1/2 seasons, AN is at less than 300. Grant Williams played but from a box score stand point, he was invisible. The box score isn't everything but it does matter. I thought he was bad last year but a lot of people think he has regressed this season. PP has looked like good value too.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I thought with the emergence of TimeLord, and Theis and TT playing pretty well, we'd start seeing less of Grant and Semi for the exact same reason, but it hasn't been the case so far. I know Brad said last week that he wants to sit one of them during each game while they go through this crazy stretch, so I can see the argument for playing one or the other when an opposing team is actually throwing 2 bigs on the floor.

But we aren't getting beat because of interior defense. We're getting absolutely fucking destroyed night and night out on the perimeter. And that's partially because guys like Semi and Grant are turnstiles on the outside. If he wants to throw Grant in there when an opposing team has a center and a true PF, I'll concede that's fine, but is that really happening much? I wouldn't mind seeing Tatum defending a 4 in the post than Semi or Grant, because his perimeter defense has been terrible too.
We've seen GW and Semi the last two games because TT has been out.

And BTW, if you think the Cs are getting destroyed on the perimeter, putting Nesmith in isn't going to help at all. He's worse laterally than both Semi and Grant.

It's a no-win argument. The Cs are losing so obviously whatever choices Brad makes aren't "working" and there's no counterfactual to prove that the Cs would be worse off with AN playing instead of Grant or Semi.

And I say that as a person who wishes Brad would play Nesmith over Grant but that would leave the Cs really really small.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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On a different topic, I think I saw a statistic that the Celtics are winless against the 5? best teams in the NBA. I don't have the statistic, but I feel like they have also played pretty poorly against the cellar of the NBA as well (although there is a lot of parity so to speak after the top teams). If that's the case, it's interesting that they have somehow managed to do well against the mid-tier NBA teams for some reason.
The Cs are 0fer UT, LAL, PHI, and BRK, so I wouldn't be surprised if they were 0fer the "5 best teams," depending on who one includes as the 5th best team.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Long story short, the team's future outlook isn't nearly as bright as it was a few years ago and other teams have caught up/surpassed us in that regard.
Are we talking about the same Cs team that has made the ECF in 3 out of the last 4 years?

Virtually every team in the NBA other than teams with well-established top 10 players (i.e., LAL, BRK, LAC, PHI, MIL and GSW) would trade their rosters for the Cs. Admittedly, DEN and PHO might not. But if PHI and/or MIL get bounced early in the playoffs, they probably would.

The Cs have a super young team. They are lead by two super-young players who have played a ton of basketball over the last three years (don't forget the World Cup). They also got some really bad luck on ping-pong balls and injuries.

Before we write them off, how about we wait for a normal, non-COVID season with a normal off-season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Are we talking about the same Cs team that has made the ECF in 3 out of the last 4 years?

Virtually every team in the NBA other than teams with well-established top 10 players (i.e., LAL, BRK, LAC, PHI, MIL and GSW) would trade their rosters for the Cs. Admittedly, DEN and PHO might not. But if PHI and/or MIL get bounced early in the playoffs, they probably would.

The Cs have a super young team. They are lead by two super-young players who have played a ton of basketball over the last three years (don't forget the World Cup). They also got some really bad luck on ping-pong balls and injuries.

Before we write them off, how about we wait for a normal, non-COVID season with a normal off-season.
You think Atlanta and Charlotte would? Dallas?

And oh boy, 3 ECFs. Are we the Colts now?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Do people here think Jaylen is better than Ingram or Fox? LaVine? Better enough to really matter?

I'm not sure NO would swap either. Ingram is as good as Brown. Zion has the Tatum upside. They also have Ball and NAW. If we can dream on RL and AN, they can dream on Hayes and Lewis Jr. Sacramento would. Fox, Haliburton and Bagley isn't a bad core though.

Yeah the C's are a super young team. A lot of that youth isn't very good tho and Jaylen isn't super young anymore. He's merely young. He'll be 25 in October. Most players are what they are at 25, with small improvements. Carsen Edwards, Tremont Waters, Grant Williams, RL, AN don't contribute/play/aren't good/aren't good yet and drag down the age as well.


Jaylen is great but I'm not sure he's a top 10 asset under 25. At least not clear cut. I've always wanted to make a list but a lot of it is subjective. Sounds like a thread.
 

Deathofthebambino

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We've seen GW and Semi the last two games because TT has been out.

And BTW, if you think the Cs are getting destroyed on the perimeter, putting Nesmith in isn't going to help at all. He's worse laterally than both Semi and Grant.

It's a no-win argument. The Cs are losing so obviously whatever choices Brad makes aren't "working" and there's no counterfactual to prove that the Cs would be worse off with AN playing instead of Grant or Semi.

And I say that as a person who wishes Brad would play Nesmith over Grant but that would leave the Cs really really small.
If Aaron Nesmith is worse at guarding laterally at the 3 point line than Grant Williams, he's completely, 100% useless to any NBA team. We've now determined in this thread that he can't guard guard down low, he can't guard the perimeter, he can't create, he can't dribble and he lacks confidence. The guy shouldn't even be playing in Europe if that's true, never mind going #14 overall in the draft last year.

I'll keep going back to this until I see a reason to not believe it. In 7 games, and nearly 160 minutes of playing time, Nesmith had a +/- of +6.1. The team went 2-5 in those games. He was playing first half minutes, early 2nd half minutes and minutes at the end of games, and he looked fine for the most part (albeit not doing much on offense, but again, neither is anyone else). In the 1st game of that stretch, in a loss to the Wizards, he was a +10 in over 28 minutes. In that same game, Semi was a -29 in 30 minutes. In the Dallas game, he was a +5 in 22 minutes and Semi was a -18 in 23 minutes.

I know how folks feel about +/- in small sample sizes, but IMO, when the same thing basically happens for 7 games in a row (Nesmith has a better +/- than the team performed as a whole, and certainly a lot better than the guys he's losing minutes to), that means the guy isn't out there hurting you. I don't care if a guy doesn't show up in a box score, if he enters the game and the team scores more points than the other team when he is on the floor, he's not hurting you. Semi and Grant have nights where the C's might be better off playing 4on5 and I'm only being slightly hyperbolic there.

I had such high hopes for this team, but I guess we'll blame the pandemic and just move along to next year. That should fix things. Maybe Danny mandated to Brad to play some of these guys in the hopes of increasing their market value. At least there would be some reason for what they are doing.

JT, JB, Kemba, Smart, TL, TT, Theis, PP (IMO), are legit NBA rotation players. That's 8 guys. If we're just re-arranging chairs on the Titanic after that, I'd rather use the chairs that are newer and might work as opposed to continue sitting on the old rickety ones that we know are shit. .
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If Aaron Nesmith is worse at guarding laterally at the 3 point line than Grant Williams, he's completely, 100% useless to any NBA team.
That's not true in today's NBA. There's room for guys like Duncan Robinson, Seth Curry, Shake Milton, Joe Ingles, Harris, etc. etc. etc. - guys who can really shoot but really can't guard one on one. It takes time for them to be able to play in NBA games.

There are not many rookie sharpshooters playing meaningful games in the NBA but there is room for people who can shoot but aren't great on Defense once they understand the speed of the game and have a better feel for where they should be on defense. In the NBA, a half-step or a false step or a second thought can be the difference between a difficult contest or a charge versus sa made bucket.
 

Auger34

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That's not true in today's NBA. There's room for guys like Duncan Robinson, Seth Curry, Shake Milton, Joe Ingles, Harris, etc. etc. etc. - guys who can really shoot but really can't guard one on one. It takes time for them to be able to play in NBA games.

There are not many rookie sharpshooters playing meaningful games in the NBA but there is room for people who can shoot but aren't great on Defense once they understand the speed of the game and have a better feel for where they should be on defense. In the NBA, a half-step or a false step or a second thought can be the difference between a difficult contest or a charge versus sa made bucket.
Yeah, I am calling BS on Nesmith not moving laterally as well as Grant Williams. I’ll give you Semi (even though I think that’s a toss up too) but no fucking way on Grant. In fact, I think every player you mentioned is way better at moving laterally than Grant. Maybe if he was in shape it’s an argument but not this current version
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yeah, I am calling BS on Nesmith not moving laterally as well as Grant Williams. I’ll give you Semi (even though I think that’s a toss up too) but no fucking way on Grant. In fact, I think every player you mentioned is way better at moving laterally than Grant. Maybe if he was in shape it’s an argument but not this current version
I'm probably not going to convince you but we've talked about it in threads before - Semi has great feet for a guy who is 240; Grant was drafted because people thought he could stay in front of guards (and he did so in the bubble); and if you watch AN, he doesn't shuffle his feet. He literally turns his hips and starts running after people. Watch him the next time he plays. He's gotten a little better about it since the first games but moving laterally is not his forte.
 

128

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I'm probably not going to convince you but we've talked about it in threads before - Semi has great feet for a guy who is 240; Grant was drafted because people thought he could stay in front of guards (and he did so in the bubble); and if you watch AN, he doesn't shuffle his feet. He literally turns his hips and starts running after people. Watch him the next time he plays. He's gotten a little better about it since the first games but moving laterally is not his forte.
If Nesmith struggles to that degree when trying to move laterally, then perhaps the C's shouldn't have used the No. 14 pick on him.
 

ColonelMustard

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For better or worse, I always try and call it like I see it. On draft night I was fine with the Nesmith pick as he was pretty much the entire Vanderbilt offense last year before it being cut short a month by injury. The team was disjointed and the offense fell apart for several weeks once he left the lineup. Granted, I didn’t watch a ton of Commodore basketball last year but from what I saw, and the teams response after he went down, I felt this was a fine pick.

My evaluation of this player in a Celtics uniform differs from what some here see and much different than what I saw in the limited time at Vandy. When a coach like Brad is holding a guy back I trust that there is something he sees in workouts/practice that we are not privy to. Brad talked about how hard Nesmith was working which to me is an enormous tell that there is an underlying issue if he’s working that hard and isn’t on the floor over the dreck he was putting out there.

Once given an opportunity he worked his ass off defensively and I praised him for that over the first 3-4 games. Once that adrenaline wore off he became a JAG out there on defense but it was offensively where he was lost, unable to create his own shot, and struggling with his handle, confidence and ability to create off the dribble. Maybe most disturbing was his deer in headlights appearance while deferring to others (which Ainge alluded to when referring to certain young players). There were several cringe moments in a couple of his final games that showed me he isn’t yet an NBA rotation player and no really even close to being one. I’m not hating the kid.....I liked him as a player originally, he works hard according to sources but my evaluation of him from what I’ve seen is that right now he simply can’t play in this league. If he shows Brad something in workouts or should he get another opportunity due to injuries that could change I’m sure.......but from my seat he’s got a lot of work to do to play in this league.
This is spot on. AN has beautiful shooting mechanics and good athletic ability. Hopefully, his ship rights itself once he finds confidence.

Meanwhile, we are still one wing player away. (Saddiq Bey's lockdown defense and 40% 3P% would have looked nice in green but—if wishes were horses)
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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If Nesmith struggles to that degree when trying to move laterally, then perhaps the C's shouldn't have used the No. 14 pick on him.
Like I said, Duncan Robinson really can't guard anyone (on a NBA level) and he's a pretty valuable piece on a Finals squad. AN will be okay. He's not going to be a defensive stopper but there are things he can do (see chasedown blocks) and once he learns the NBA, he will be fine IMO. With one caveat - as long as he's shooting 40% from 3P on volume.
 

Cesar Crespo

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perhaps the C's shouldn't have used the No. 14 pick on him.
It's too early to tell but that may end up being the case.

I'd guess he figures it out, but he may not be a positive contributor until year 3 or 4 and then you have to decide to sign him or not. See Terry, See Time Lord.

Hopefully RL is in that spot next year too, but it's hard to see it giving all the injuries. Grant would be too, but I don't see his upside.
 

Auger34

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I'm probably not going to convince you but we've talked about it in threads before - Semi has great feet for a guy who is 240; Grant was drafted because people thought he could stay in front of guards (and he did so in the bubble); and if you watch AN, he doesn't shuffle his feet. He literally turns his hips and starts running after people. Watch him the next time he plays. He's gotten a little better about it since the first games but moving laterally is not his forte.
I think you actually did just agree with me....Semi’s problem isn’t lateral quickness it’s that he refuses to leave his feet and challenge anyone. I buy that he’s better at shuffling his feet than AN.

I mentioned that maybe an in shape
Grant Williams could be similar to a nesmith in lateral movement..This years Grant Williams is in awful shape and appears to be about a good 15-20 points overweight. He can’t stay in front of anyone and he’s got T-Rex arms. With that and his stone hands I think he’s about as close to functionally useless as you can get.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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shoelace

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The theory that animated this roster construction was that they could be an elite defensive team (as they have been for most of Brad's tenure) and that Tatum could be a top 10ish player and that Brown could be a fringe All Star. Some of that has been true. But, their defensive drop off, especially in transition and against the three, has been precipitous. lovegtm and benhogan have been all over this issue. It feels like some posters want offensive help, but if they could get Harrison Barnes or Aaron Gordon, I'd take Gordon. This team needs defensive help, and needs someone who can take minutes at the 4 from Semi and Grant.

I'm bullish on the future of this team, given how good Brown and Tatum are. Their record will be better by the end of the season. Thus far they are 11th in strength of schedule, and only Utah among teams with a tougher schedule by SOS has a positive net rating. After they finish their series against Milwaukee, their schedule is among the easiest in the NBA. But I don't think they should use the TPE unless it brings back a player who can help them defensively.
 

128

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I'm bullish on the future of this team, given how good Brown and Tatum are. Their record will be better by the end of the season. Thus far they are 11th in strength of schedule, and only Utah among teams with a tougher schedule by SOS has a positive net rating. After they finish their series against Milwaukee, their schedule is among the easiest in the NBA. But I don't think they should use the TPE unless it brings back a player who can help them defensively.
In theory, that makes sense, but the C's are losing to the bad teams on the schedule, not only the good ones.

They've lost twice to Detroit this season and in the past 72 hours have lost to Cleveland and Sacramento.
 

128

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There were breakdowns galore at both ends of the court tonite, but the play that best summed up the C's woes was probably the 3-on-1 break on which Grant Williams, for reasons known only to him and his god, chose to pass to Pritchard instead of Tatum, who would have had an easy layup or dunk.

Pritchard's shot was blocked out of bounds, and I'm pretty sure the C's got nothing out of the possession.
 

JCizzle

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There were breakdowns galore at both ends of the court tonite, but the play that best summed up the C's woes was probably the 3-on-1 break on which Grant Williams, for reasons known only to him and his god, chose to pass to Pritchard instead of Tatum, who would have had an easy layup or dunk.

Pritchard's shot was blocked out of bounds, and I'm pretty sure the C's got nothing out of the possession.
IIRC, Grant actually hit a 3 off the in-bounds pass. Not that it changes your point at all, it was a horrible decision.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The theory that animated this roster construction was that they could be an elite defensive team (as they have been for most of Brad's tenure) and that Tatum could be a top 10ish player and that Brown could be a fringe All Star. Some of that has been true. But, their defensive drop off, especially in transition and against the three, has been precipitous. lovegtm and benhogan have been all over this issue. It feels like some posters want offensive help, but if they could get Harrison Barnes or Aaron Gordon, I'd take Gordon. This team needs defensive help, and needs someone who can take minutes at the 4 from Semi and Grant.

I'm bullish on the future of this team, given how good Brown and Tatum are. Their record will be better by the end of the season. Thus far they are 11th in strength of schedule, and only Utah among teams with a tougher schedule by SOS has a positive net rating. After they finish their series against Milwaukee, their schedule is among the easiest in the NBA. But I don't think they should use the TPE unless it brings back a player who can help them defensively.
Barnes on paper is a good fit. In practice he would not be imo. I think he and Boston would be a terrible combination in terms of expectations versus capability. He is a useful player but he alone would probably not make a meaningful difference in the team's current ceiling.

I agree that their D has been bad and they need help there too but their offense is way to concentrated. Teams who are successful at slowing Tatum and or Brown then just have to play Walker roulette and thus far its worked. The reality is beyond those three, they currently have nobody who can consistently get buckets. Even if they get another wing, they still need more scoring. Tatum and Brown account for ~40% of the teams overall points this season. Aside from the Bucks few other presumed playoff teams are that concentrated and the Bucks have a better roster. The Clippers, who are a model of sorts for the Cs, are currently relying on George and Leonard for about 33% of their points.

In short, we agree they need help but it has to be on both ends.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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There were breakdowns galore at both ends of the court tonite, but the play that best summed up the C's woes was probably the 3-on-1 break on which Grant Williams, for reasons known only to him and his god, chose to pass to Pritchard instead of Tatum, who would have had an easy layup or dunk.
I'm sure it was the I know that you know that I know that you know I'm going to pass to JT so I'll pass to PP and they won't know what's coming.

That wasn't all GW's fault. PP should have brought the ball to the middle and created more spacing. Plus his pass to GW was questionable.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The theory that animated this roster construction was that they could be an elite defensive team (as they have been for most of Brad's tenure) and that Tatum could be a top 10ish player and that Brown could be a fringe All Star. Some of that has been true. But, their defensive drop off, especially in transition and against the three, has been precipitous. lovegtm and benhogan have been all over this issue. It feels like some posters want offensive help, but if they could get Harrison Barnes or Aaron Gordon, I'd take Gordon. This team needs defensive help, and needs someone who can take minutes at the 4 from Semi and Grant.
The Celtics are 13th in the league in Opp 3-pt Pct. It isn’t like we are the Cavaliers defending the perimeter.
 

lovegtm

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If Jayson Tatum+Jaylen Brown+Marcus Smart+competent defensive role players doesn’t give you a good defense, no amount of acquisitions are going to move the needle. Those guys simply aren’t playing anyway near their potential or past performance on that end, and it’s destroying the team.
 

RetractableRoof

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No, we’re saying that the future is in the JayCrew, not the 6-10 guys in the rotation. Those guys are ultimately fungible. Tatum and Brown need to grow if Boston is to become a contender, these are the growing pains.
Didn't see this post last night. I agree with your post, in it's entirety (partially because you are saying 6-10, versus 3-10). My quibble is the area of growth. Any individual skill growth in these two that doesn't involve one of them crossing the line into legit MVP candidate isn't enough to get the team over the hump by itself. These two need to learn to make their teammates better, and play a game that maximizes whatever fungible 6-10 teammates that are present. They improve their handles, their step back, their crossover, their finish by what percent? 3? 5? 10? Conversely there is room for massive improvements in their team play, their team game - and that could be a difference maker in getting them over the line. And those growing pains could be occurring simultaneously with them working on their skill games. And if not simultaneously, then I'd say work the team game skills when with the team, and individual skills can be worked in the offseason with their personal trainers, they are acknowledged gym rats.
 

reggiecleveland

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Ditto.

Ditto the bolded twice. Add a motion set to the offense in a hotel ballroom walkthrough the morning before the Cavaliers game - BB can successfully add offensive plays the morning of the Superbowl, why the hell can't the Cs add a piece or two every couple of days. Something is better than nothing. Honestly, I'm tired of the cream of the athletic crop being carried around on peoples shoulders as heroes... but then folks say they aren't capable of incremental skill acquisition mid-season because it's "too hard". These are the same guys who can get to level 74 of some damn video game - they can figure out some basic rules of motion offense in bits and pieces. When 10 year olds can figure out the concepts, adults can too. Execution is vastly different in the professional arena, but don't tell me it's too hard.

Edit: removed the fan boy "we".
Couple Things
1. football has a huddle, and each player's job lasts maybe 3-4 seconds.
2. football is much simpler. I like to anger my football friends by pointing out, it is the only sport, if it were legal you would play animals in place of some people. Trained elephant shot yardage line?
3. When BB is adding plays before a superbowl he has a good team.
 

RetractableRoof

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Couple Things
1. football has a huddle, and each player's job lasts maybe 3-4 seconds.
2. football is much simpler. I like to anger my football friends by pointing out, it is the only sport, if it were legal you would play animals in place of some people. Trained elephant shot yardage line?
3. When BB is adding plays before a superbowl he has a good team.
All true, and yet Stevens draws a play up on a white board to run after a time out. I understand the level of knowledge you have (many of you have), but telling me that things can't be improved mid-season is BS. Somewhere between my hyperbole of it's not that hard, and you all answering that it's impossible is the real answer of "we can do some things". That's what I want, to see some "motion" things.
 

chilidawg

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It seems to me, coming from a casual fan perspective, that you can generate open shots from either an iso or motion offense. The problem isn't so much that they run iso or PnR, but that they're not moving the ball out of the iso with any consistency. How much of that is on the creators and how much on the role players is pretty hard to say. I'm going to guess it's some of both.
 

benhogan

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If Jayson Tatum+Jaylen Brown+Marcus Smart+competent defensive role players doesn’t give you a good defense, no amount of acquisitions are going to move the needle. Those guys simply aren’t playing anyway near their potential or past performance on that end, and it’s destroying the team.
I'll reach into my bag of excuses here on the defense:
1. Tatum: hasn't been the same after he got COVID, sounds like he can't catch a breath.
2. Brown: banged-up knee, clearly has reduced his explosiveness
3. Smart: paunchy shape from day 1 this year. I have ZERO proof of this but he probably didn't stay in basketball shape after the bubble to give his body some time to recover (that would be understandable). Figured he'd get in shape over the first month. Injury. Back to square -1
4. Grant Wiliams: some more conjecture on my part, followed in Smart's footsteps and took time off to eat Chipotle. He has looked slow and out of shape from day 1 of the season.
5. Romeo: Minor surgery after the injury in the bubble, a bit of a surprise but OK get ready for next year...
then not ready to start the season? then not ready for the first month? then not ready for 2 months? then not ready until after the All-Star game? then not ready for protocol reasons? then silence? WTF

So here are 5 players, that after the bubble, I would have rated from good to great defenders, that are getting better. All is good for 2020-21...

WRONG!!! all took a step back defensively this season. Then add in Kemba (tries hard but just terrible defensively) and you can see why after a decent start to the year the wheels are coming off. Adding a Harrison Barnes isn't going to change the defense much. I'd rather add some defensive-minded players that don't cost much (Nwaba, Delon Wright, Dunn) so they can be at least competitive.

Danny needs to do some work this Summer by first extracting Kemba. This team will never get to where it wants to go with his defense and declining skills. Just don't believe you can turn a $35MM/yr player into a high-scoring Lou Williams/bench piece type. Great in theory, not in practice. I'm not sure of the cost and was getting hopeful a few weeks back that it wouldn't be very painful. But not very optimistic.

This team needs to get back to being a top 4 defensive team next season if it wants to contend. I'm pretty much resigned to a bridge season (even with injury luck, 10 other teams are clearly ahead of us)
 

Jimbodandy

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2. football is much simpler. I like to anger my football friends by pointing out, it is the only sport, if it were legal you would play animals in place of some people. Trained elephant shot yardage line?

3. When BB is adding plays before a superbowl he has a good team.
Snipped some here, but your point 2 is fucking hilarious. Also true.

Regarding point 3, he also has two weeks of dedicated practice time in which to do it. In fact Bill can rewrite large portions of his playbooks every week, because they have a solid 4 days of practice to work on the new stuff.

We all know that hoop is a rhythm sport far more than football and baseball. But any coaching and young player development that would have happened on this team was totally sacrificed to covid. No offseason workouts, summer league, and basically no practice time at all due to compressed schedule. Brad could be the love child of John Wooden and Red Auerbach and it wouldn't mean jack this year. Coaches' are overrated in general, but this environment works directly against Brad's strengths.

If Ainge is to be blamed for anything, maybe it's that he should have moved off some developmental guys for lower ceiling vets and their inherent stability.
 

RetractableRoof

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Regarding point 3, he also has two weeks of dedicated practice time in which to do it. In fact Bill can rewrite large portions of his playbooks every week, because they have a solid 4 days of practice to work on the new stuff.
Regarding point 3, he was responding to my point that the MORNING of one of the superbowls they added a play in the hotel ballroom or wherever they were. Ran the play in the superbowl successfully. One of the Pats players is mic'ed up, and asks another player "Where did we get that play? I've never seen it before." Answered casually: "we put it in this morning."

I stand by my point, while still acknowledging Reggie's response. If the Pats can add a play superbowl morning, stuff can be added to the Celtics offense midseason - regardless of whether or not they have a trained elephant (Grant is just as strong, right?).
 

Jimbodandy

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Regarding point 3, he was responding to my point that the MORNING of one of the superbowls they added a play in the hotel ballroom or wherever they were. Ran the play in the superbowl successfully. One of the Pats players is mic'ed up, and asks another player "Where did we get that play? I've never seen it before." Answered casually: "we put it in this morning."

I stand by my point, while still acknowledging Reggie's response. If the Pats can add a play superbowl morning, stuff can be added to the Celtics offense midseason - regardless of whether or not they have a trained elephant (Grant is just as strong, right?).
Yeah they can work in a play that nobody has seen before, and it might work. But as we've seen in football, a team will see that and adjust. Then that play doesn't work anymore. It's good for one instance, and that one instance may be the biggest play of the day and change the outcome of the game. There's a lot of misdirection and surprise in football.

Basketball is a lot more about gaining an advantage and pressing that advantage. There's just not that much surprise and misdirection. Nobody is doing anything that the other team has never seen before. In order to implement new actions that will give you an advantage to exploit, it requires a lot of repetition and upskilling for young guys. Doc Rivers was able to whip shit up in Boston and LA with veteran guys. If we had more veteran guys, that would be more possible. Or if we had more practice time.

You've probably heard the story about K.C. Jones writing up a big play in the huddle in the 1984 season, when Larry interrupted him and said "coach just get me the ball and get everyone else out of the way". And K.C. said "Larry, quiet. I'm the coach here. OK, fellas, now let's get Larry the ball and get the hell out of his way".
 

RetractableRoof

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Yeah they can work in a play that nobody has seen before, and it might work. But as we've seen in football, a team will see that and adjust. Then that play doesn't work anymore. It's good for one instance, and that one instance may be the biggest play of the day and change the outcome of the game. There's a lot of misdirection and surprise in football.

Basketball is a lot more about gaining an advantage and pressing that advantage. There's just not that much surprise and misdirection. Nobody is doing anything that the other team has never seen before. In order to implement new actions that will give you an advantage to exploit, it requires a lot of repetition and upskilling for young guys. Doc Rivers was able to whip shit up in Boston and LA with veteran guys. If we had more veteran guys, that would be more possible. Or if we had more practice time.

You've probably heard the story about K.C. Jones writing up a big play in the huddle in the 1984 season, when Larry interrupted him and said "coach just get me the ball and get everyone else out of the way". And K.C. said "Larry, quiet. I'm the coach here. OK, fellas, now let's get Larry the ball and get the hell out of his way".
I'm not asking for gadget plays... no one is. I'm saying the idea that NOTHING can be done midseason is incorrect.
 

Imbricus

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Interesting that the latest comments by Brad, uber diplomat, are (if you parse them) really about the Celtics not playing as a team. He actually said the effort's been there. It's just been individual effort, by implication. I think that's the closest he'll come to saying too many guys are playing selfish and not getting teammates involved.

And he has said it makes the game harder. This is a great point. Once this offense is more free-flowing, it gets harder to predict. The defense can't assume that Tatum is going to pound the ball for three seconds, then spend eight more seconds trying to juke out his defender and throwing up a contested shot.

Anyway, a lot of chatter everywhere about "the Celtics must do something by the trade deadline!" I actually hope they don't. They'd be selling low on any pieces in a trade (except for maybe Time Lord) and seems like they'd overpay for a single piece that really won't solve their problems anyway.
 

benhogan

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Interesting that the latest comments by Brad, uber diplomat, are (if you parse them) really about the Celtics not playing as a team. He actually said the effort's been there. It's just been individual effort, by implication. I think that's the closest he'll come to saying too many guys are playing selfish and not getting teammates involved.

And he has said it makes the game harder. This is a great point. Once this offense is more free-flowing, it gets harder to predict. The defense can't assume that Tatum is going to pound the ball for three seconds, then spend eight more seconds trying to juke out his defender and throwing up a contested shot.

Anyway, a lot of chatter everywhere about "the Celtics must do something by the trade deadline!" I actually hope they don't. They'd be selling low on any pieces in a trade (except for maybe Time Lord) and seems like they'd overpay for a single piece that really won't solve their problems anyway.
Agree with all of this, I'll just add one thing about the Jays ISO/get mine offense. It's perfectly fine for the Jays to go ISO. My beef is they need to be decisive, attack the rim, shoot or quickly move the ball with purpose.

Standing there, bouncing the ball between your legs for 5 seconds at the top is asinine. Going into "genius coma solo act" lets the defense dig in, position itself and play the passing lanes for the 4 other potted plants on the perimeter. This is what I believe Brad is saying when he refers to the players making it hard on themselves.
 

Imbricus

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Going into "genius coma solo act" lets the defense dig in, position itself and play the passing lanes for the 4 other potted plants on the perimeter.
Ha! Exactly.

Your earlier observation about Brown is spot on. I think the knee is really bothering him. Contrast how he looks now with earlier in the season, when he seemed to levitate in the air on mid-range jumpers and no one could touch the shot. Now he's stumbling around, falling, and not getting a lot of lift (he's been blocked a few times lately underneath). Separately, I wish he wouldn't drive into traffic with no good plan, then spin around and try to unload the ball to a teammate. He's caused several turnovers doing that. But that may also be a function of his not thinking he can get as much lift on the shot, so he'd rather pass out.

I wish Brad would just sit him for a few weeks. It's becoming clear this weird Covid-shortened season isn't our year anyway. Play the kids. Try to figure some stuff out. It's not like there are 30,000 fans in Boston Garden for games right now anyway.
 

Jimbodandy

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Agree with all of this, I'll just add one thing about the Jays ISO/get mine offense. It's perfectly fine for the Jays to go ISO. My beef is they need to be decisive, attack the rim, shoot or quickly move the ball with purpose.

Standing there, bouncing the ball between your legs for 5 seconds at the top is asinine. Going into "genius coma solo act" lets the defense dig in, position itself and play the passing lanes for the 4 other potted plants on the perimeter. This is what I believe Brad is saying when he refers to the players making it hard on themselves.
While I agree with all of this, I think that we've seen some negative side effects of those potted plants getting into motion too. The supporting cast simply doesn't have enough of an understanding to make smart cuts most of the time and frequently end up fucking up the spacing when they try to improvise.

IMO Theis and Smart are the only two non-Jay guys on the team who routinely make smart cuts and find soft spots in the defense without ever fucking things up. And I don't think that's an accident. Theis had five years in Europe and is in his fourth NBA season. Smart is in seventh.

Lack of practice time hurts a lot. Lack of overall basketball experience, particularly in being that role player, hurts badly too. HRB is onto something there.
 

benhogan

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While I agree with all of this, I think that we've seen some negative side effects of those potted plants getting into motion too. The supporting cast simply doesn't have enough of an understanding to make smart cuts most of the time and frequently end up fucking up the spacing when they try to improvise.

IMO Theis and Smart are the only two non-Jay guys on the team who routinely make smart cuts and find soft spots in the defense without ever fucking things up. And I don't think that's an accident. Theis had five years in Europe and is in his fourth NBA season. Smart is in seventh.

Lack of practice time hurts a lot. Lack of overall basketball experience, particularly in being that role player, hurts badly too. HRB is onto something there.
While it's not in my nature to ever agree with HRB, he is right. The team is very young/inexperienced or older/declining (Kemba/TT/Teague).

I'm optimistic the majority of this group can turn it around, but probably not happening this fu@ked up season. Just hoping the media settles down a bit, doesn't start roasting our youngsters out of frustration (Kendrick :rolleyes:) and creates unnecessary drama. I'm sure we're only a few days away from CHB weighing in with an optimistic take.
 

peritas

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I agree. This team should focus on getting better and forget about a deep playoff run. They need to learn to play together and not try to do it one on one.
 

NomarsFool

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Almost seems like a retooling is in order here. Would Golden State trade the Minnesota first round pick for Marcus Smart? Cade Cunningham or Evan Mobley would look good with this squad. What could Theis be worth at the deadline? A late first? Seems like a 2nd rounder at a minimum.
 

reggiecleveland

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All true, and yet Stevens draws a play up on a white board to run after a time out. I understand the level of knowledge you have (many of you have), but telling me that things can't be improved mid-season is BS. Somewhere between my hyperbole of it's not that hard, and you all answering that it's impossible is the real answer of "we can do some things". That's what I want, to see some "motion" things.
But a motion offence is not a new play. It is new rules, philosophy, and many motion people say it can end up with the shot distribution evening out. As we are all aware the Celtics are not deep in offensive talent. There is a pretty good chance you are right, as difficult as the change would be, it is not like they are changing Ted Williams swing, a change is needed.