Anyway, to get this thread back on track. From 2019.
Brayan Bello, pitcher for Greenville, tonight had 13 K in 6 scoreless innings. He has had an awful season with an ERA over 7 before tonight in 69 innings. But, apparently when he’s good, he’s spectacular.
Sometimes guys just have really great games too tho.. With that caveat:
Bello is another guy who saw his velocity jump 2-3 mph. I'm not a pitcher/scout/whatever but I'd guess the increased velocity takes some time to get used to and affects (effects?) control/command some too. Bello had a great season last year in the DSL, with an era of 1.60 in 67.1 ip, 10bb/74k. and a WHIP of .73. That's hard to do in any league. Granted he was pretty old for the DSL at 19 years of age. He had 3 innings in the GCL last year but for the most part, skipped rookie ball all together.
Going further into his numbers this season, hitters are slashing .315/.383/.479 off him with a .398 BAbip. His k% is only 22.1% and his BB% is 8.8%. I'd guess last nights game was just an outlier but maybe it's a sign of things to come.
Either way, It's "funny" how pitching prospects work out. I wonder if it's better for pitchers to add velocity later on in their career because it forces them to learn how to pitch, and it's probably less strain on their arm earlier on. Mata (who is only 2 weeks older than Bello) and Bello are now sitting around 95 at age 20 and we've seen Groome, Espinoza and Kopech's careers get derailed early on by injuries.
When all is said and done, Logan Allen may be the best SP the Redsox traded away.
I was looking back to when my love affair to Brayan Bello started and it's earlier than I thought. After that game, I really started to follow him and he did not disappoint. He's probably my favorite binky (if not prospect) of all time. It's absolutely crazy how far he has come since. By July 2021, he was ranked 18th in the Sox farm system by MLB. I had him as the best pitcher in the entire Sox system. I was all in. His velocity would end up jumping more than 2-3 mph, too. I still have some of the same thoughts re: pitching prospects. Sign as many cheap pitchers as you can in the IFA period. You can sign 10-20 of them for the price of a top player. Bello was $28,000.
Another pitcher who gets overlooked on this board a lot, Bryan Mata, signed for $25k.
last 2 games in AAA:
5.0 ip, 9 hits, 1r/1er, 0bb/7k.
5.1 ip, 3 hits, 3r/3er, 3bb/10k.
For the year across all levels: 2.49 era, 83.0 ip, 60 hits, 28r/23er, 46bb/105k. 30.3% K%, 13.2% BB%. Going into the year, he had a career 22.7% K%/10.7% BB%. He's always thrown hard, he's now striking guys out. Given he's coming off TJS, it's really encouraging to see. Hopefully, some of the BB% is just rust. I'm not as confident in Mata as I am in Bello but he has more potential in the AAA group than anyone else. Outside of maybe Walter, but I think he's the most likely to end up in the bullpen.
Then the most exciting arm in the lower levels now is Luis Perales, who signed for a
super expensive $75k. Extremely wide range of outcomes (washes out before AA to Ace.). All 3 of these guys saw their velocity jump in their late teens. There used to be a popular saying "Throwing 95 at 18 means throwing 89 at 21." I don't think it's quite as true now that we are more aware of PC and the like but there's some merit to it.
Wikelman is too expensive to include with the above 3, (250k) but was still cheap enough. He looked excellent to finish the year.
I hope this is Bloom's strategy and I hope he hoards young pitching rather than trading them for rentals. MLB was suggesting trading him and Franchy for Rizzo. This person probably only looked at his prospect ranking. This is why I always think it's kinda foolish to look at a player's prospect ranking during a mid season trade. Even on some updated list. It'll be fun to evaluate some of the (midseason) trades that happened this year. Scouting reports always trail development. Valdez and Abreu have real intrigue and I imagine both will be in AAA. At the very least, it's some injury depth for small stretches with young talent. I'm kind of surprised the Astros trades 2 players so close to the MLB. They do need to be on the 40 though.
Player development is weird. Rafaela blew up in late 2021 and it carried over to 2022. Castellanos blew up late in 2019, some carried over but not enough. Lugo, Paulino and Bonaci all finished this year on considerable streaks as well. Yorke was an absolute beast to finish the season last year and this year has been awful (hopefully most or all of it is injury related). Bello basically had a light switch go off one game and that was that. Other times, 1 game is just one game. See Drohan, Shane. I love it. It's the one time something can be small sample size or something legit.
Anyway, as someone who has been watching Brayan Bello almost obsessively since 2019, he's going to be a 1 or 2 if he holds up and I think he will. I'm also a total fanboy. This guy was supposed to be my new
Roniel Raudes or
Denyi Reyes. Control pitchers who don't really throw hard enough so you have to watch them go up the latter every step up the way. Not a top prospect. Reyes actually made it to the majors this year. He's an outlier control wise. Career 3.7% BB% in the minors. Raudes is 24 and had a good year in the indies. Maybe he reappears. I'm really glad I got to see him (Bello, though I saw Reyes as well) pitch a few times in Portland and Manchester last year.
Don't really have a point. I just like seeing people on the Bello train.
edit: of course, Mata ended up needing TJS anyway.
