And on this farm he had some prospects B-L-O-O-M

[grimshaw]

Thought I'd break this out since it's off topic from the Duran thread.

But what is the value of these depth guys? Most won’t turn out to be productive big leaguers and they likely don’t have a ton of trade value, right? Years ago I remember hearing about all the depth in the system and a looming 40-man crunch and no one significant was lost. It’s better to have interesting prospects than not but a lot of these guys are really far from the bigs and become less interesting as they progress (or, don’t progress).

You need these guys in order to help develop and either package them for better guys, use them as up and down/emergency fellas, have fringe league minimum salary 26th men to get under the cap or simply to fill the minor league ranks because someone needs to play down there. Otherwise you just have to keep amassing more and more guys and fellas.

In 2016 alone Fangraphs had future major leaguers Aaron Wilkerson, Henry Ramos, Tzu-Wei Lin, and Kyle Martin listed as "of note players" These are basically 35 FV guys considered as coin flips for cups for cups of coffee who ended up making it to the majors. Wilkerson at least was used to acquire a rapidly worsening but potentially helpful Aaron Hill and Lin became interesting when they were able to develop him into a brief stop gap.

If you move one step up to 40+ FV - the guys Bloom has been acquiring in mass quantities, you have Jalen Beeks who was moved for one Nate Eovaldi. Much less of note was Pat Light who was acquired for the ineffective Fernando Abad who was a roll of the dice to maybe pick up a win down the stretch.

These minor leaguers aren't just added to help the Red Sox, they help other teams' bottom tier farm systems or make cheap owners happy and therefore allow the Sox to get rentals or better.

This is a very impatient fan base as @E5 Yaz noted, but I have come to appreciate previous GM's a lot more (Dombrowski in particular) to at least keep the line moving when the high ups couldn't afford to wait any longer. You need to keep making these deals to have a sustainably competitive team. I like Bloom so much because this is just what the franchise needs but ultimately what he ends up doing with this depth is what will keep him employed or not or others to continually cheerlead for him.

I respect the views of those who wish Bloom would push his chips in more to make the team better now, but my enjoyment of watching this team is looking forward to one who can continuously get what they need because of their embarrassment of farm riches, like the Padres and have a significant guy or two knocking on the door and forcing their case year after year.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

For a few years now many of us have lamented the Yankees constantly trading for MLB players without touching their tip-top prospects. They aren't able to do this by virtue of having 15-20 guys who would classify as other teams' top prospects, they do this by having a very good top 10 and then another 30 guys beyond that who are interesting in one way or another.

That is the kind of thing Bloom is probably looking to build, and we'll see if that's the case this offseason now that he has a bit of a war chest to work with, both in cash and prospects. The Yankees have also developed a bit of a superpower in terms of turning mid-round pitchers into relevant prospects. So far Bloom's talent has been accumulation more than anything (plus whatever voodoo caused Mayer to drop to 4), but there does appear to be a pattern with the Yorke/Blaze/Romero/Coffey/Anthony picks so if he is able to hang around long enough we'll see if he is able to turn these prep bats into gold.

But we're now at a spot where you can put together a package like Murphy/Paulino/Jimenez that could be enticing to another team without really hurting the prospect depth all that much. It takes time to really see the benefits of the kind of prospect churn grimshaw is talking about.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think I am in agreement here; having the depth prospects is nice but not an ends to itself- they need to be converted into value and I think that needs to happen to some extent this off-season. In the past I recall folks getting really attached to depth prospects and perhaps not acknowledging that their value was perishable- there’s that balance between moving a guy too early and holding on too long. Of course, you ideally need some of these guys to make it to the bigs and provide value to the major league team, too, and need to identify who are the best bets to do that. Not that any of it is easy!

 

[Apisith]

When fangraphs ranked us 5th before the trade deadline, we had the most ranked prospects but in terms of average value, we were ranked 16th. Basically, we have a farm filled with a lot of decent prospects but we don’t have the same amount of top tier prospects that other highly ranked farm systems do. That’s because we haven’t tanked like other teams and Dombrowski didn’t make international kids a focus, so we didn’t spend money like the Yankees did.

I don’t know what Bloom’s strategy is from now on. Does he start spending these chips for major league guys? He could only get rentals, which doesn’t solve our long term issue with not having enough cost-controlled players. Or does he spend some of the good prospects that are far away from the majors to acquire players that are in AA or AAA and can hopefully contribute sooner. Based on fangraphs’ value, 3-4 40FV prospects are equivalent to 1 45FV prospect. German, Kavadas, Lugo and Bonaci are equivalent to 1 Winckowski. Is he willing to trade eight 40FV guys for 2 Winckowskis?

I still think that’s too risky, we could end up with a barren farm and a bad major league team. There are no shortcuts here, Bloom has to continue accumulating enough prospects until he can make those 3 for 1 deals yearly for cost-controlled or soon-to-graduate players. We can do that maybe once this off-season and everyone would start questioning the strength of the farm system again.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don't know how important Sox Prospects is in the grand scheme of valuation of prospects, but it's pretty exciting that Blaze Jordan is barely in their top 20 right now. I know he had a slow start to the year and the shine dulled a little, but it also speaks of the depth that Bloom has built just over the past year, and the more realistic possibility that he can start to cash in some of that depth without stripping the farm of talent

 

[chawson]

Baseball America released their Red Sox Top 30

1. Mayer
2. Bello
3. Casas
4. Rafaela
5. Yorke
6. Bleis
7. Mata
8. Murphy
9. Walter
10. Jordan
11. Winckowski
12. Romero
13. Lugo
14. W. Gonzalez
15. C. Coffey
16. E. Valdez
17. Rodriguez-Cruz
18. Paulino
19. Downs
20. Bonaci
21. Anthony
22. Abreu
23. Seabold
24. McDonough
25. Ward
26. Hickey
27. Drohan
28. Juan Daniel Encarnacion
29. Ravelo
30. Kavadas

https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1003/boston-red-sox/organizational/

 

[johnlos]

Sox up to 13th from 16th in Kiley McDaniel's post-draft organizational rankings https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34345715/post-mlb-trade-deadline-farm-system-rankings-all-30-teams

13. Boston Red Sox - $249 million
Preseason Value - $210 million (16th)

The Red Sox had a confusing trade deadline, holding J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, trading Christian Vazquez and Jake Diekman, and adding Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. The Hosmer deal included flipping longtime prospect LHP Jay Groome to San Diego for 2B Max Ferguson and CF Corey Rosier while Vazquez netted Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu; all four added prospects are more depth pieces than impact types. The draft class was solid, led by prep position players SS Mikey Romero, RF Roman Anthony, C Brooks Brannon and SS Cutter Coffey. Three former prep position player top picks -- SS Marcelo Mayer, 2B Nick Yorke and 1B Triston Casas -- still pace the system.

A reminder, we were 30th in BA's rankings when Bloom took over. Been a tough year but last year was fun and hopefully we're building something more sustainable like what LAD has done.

 

[tims4wins]

Sox up to 13th from 16th in Kiley McDaniel's post-draft organizational rankings https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34345715/post-mlb-trade-deadline-farm-system-rankings-all-30-teams

13. Boston Red Sox - $249 million
Preseason Value - $210 million (16th)

The Red Sox had a confusing trade deadline, holding J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi, trading Christian Vazquez and Jake Diekman, and adding Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. The Hosmer deal included flipping longtime prospect LHP Jay Groome to San Diego for 2B Max Ferguson and CF Corey Rosier while Vazquez netted Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu; all four added prospects are more depth pieces than impact types. The draft class was solid, led by prep position players SS Mikey Romero, RF Roman Anthony, C Brooks Brannon and SS Cutter Coffey. Three former prep position player top picks -- SS Marcelo Mayer, 2B Nick Yorke and 1B Triston Casas -- still pace the system.

A reminder, we were 30th in BA's rankings when Bloom took over. Been a tough year but last year was fun and hopefully we're building something more sustainable like what LAD has done.

How much of this is Bloom though just compared to the normal cyclical nature of such rankings? The Sox tanked in 14-15, had a great org ranking, won the division 3 straight years as prospects graduated, traded prospects for stars that contributed to the division titles (and WS title), then regressed and tanked in 20, and began refilling the cupboard. Has Bloom done anything remarkable to help this process? Or is it more or less where any GM would expect to be at this point?

 

[scottyno]

How much of this is Bloom though just compared to the normal cyclical nature of such rankings? The Sox tanked in 14-15, had a great org ranking, won the division 3 straight years as prospects graduated, traded prospects for stars that contributed to the division titles (and WS title), then regressed and tanked in 20, and began refilling the cupboard. Has Bloom done anything remarkable to help this process? Or is it more or less where any GM would expect to be at this point?

It's early, but he appears to have drafted really well. And not just due to the luck of ending up with Mayer.

 

[johnlos]

How much of this is Bloom though just compared to the normal cyclical nature of such rankings? The Sox tanked in 14-15, had a great org ranking, won the division 3 straight years as prospects graduated, traded prospects for stars that contributed to the division titles (and WS title), then regressed and tanked in 20, and began refilling the cupboard. Has Bloom done anything remarkable to help this process? Or is it more or less where any GM would expect to be at this point?

Valid point. Mayer in particular was an obvious pick after a bad season and as McDaniel points out (see Alvarez on Mets being worth >$100m) one prospect can have a huge influence on the rankings. That said, the system was baddd at the end of 2019 and that was pretty quick to be top-half again. He's responsible for 1, 5, 6, and 10 in the new BA top-10 (see a few posts ago) and mayyybe he gets slight credit for tanking?

And as I said in another thread, he's made a series of good moves in the last few years even if you hate the Mookie trade (which I'd blame ownership for more than anything). Kiké, Pivetta, Schwarber, Whitlock, even Story acquired at great values without denting the system.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think it would be cool to have a predictive poll on which of these prospects will have the greatest impact for the Red Sox.

 

[Jimbodandy]

When fangraphs ranked us 5th before the trade deadline, we had the most ranked prospects but in terms of average value, we were ranked 16th. Basically, we have a farm filled with a lot of decent prospects but we don’t have the same amount of top tier prospects that other highly ranked farm systems do. That’s because we haven’t tanked like other teams and Dombrowski didn’t make international kids a focus, so we didn’t spend money like the Yankees did.

I don’t know what Bloom’s strategy is from now on. Does he start spending these chips for major league guys? He could only get rentals, which doesn’t solve our long term issue with not having enough cost-controlled players. Or does he spend some of the good prospects that are far away from the majors to acquire players that are in AA or AAA and can hopefully contribute sooner. Based on fangraphs’ value, 3-4 40FV prospects are equivalent to 1 45FV prospect. German, Kavadas, Lugo and Bonaci are equivalent to 1 Winckowski. Is he willing to trade eight 40FV guys for 2 Winckowskis?

I still think that’s too risky, we could end up with a barren farm and a bad major league team. There are no shortcuts here, Bloom has to continue accumulating enough prospects until he can make those 3 for 1 deals yearly for cost-controlled or soon-to-graduate players. We can do that maybe once this off-season and everyone would start questioning the strength of the farm system again.

Some prospects-for-entering-arb-years-guys deals would be nice.

Don't forget that Dombo, whatever his flaws, kind of had his hands tied with international signings due to shenanigans.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Don't forget that Dombo, whatever his flaws, kind of had his hands tied with international signings due to shenanigans.

Also one of their top-rated international signings died of cancer.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Some prospects-for-entering-arb-years-guys deals would be nice.

Don't forget that Dombo, whatever his flaws, kind of had his hands tied with international signings due to shenanigans.

It’s weird how little love Dombrowski gets compared to other Sox GM’s / Presidents of Baseball Ops. The team won 93, 93, 108, and 84 games on his watch.

 

[catsooey]

I think it was his moves in 2019 that really lead to the criticism. Dave is probably one of the people most responsible for Mookie not being here. He took Mook to arbitration and there’s some cause to question whether Dave really felt he was worth a huge contract.

His contract with Sale was a needless gamble. I honestly don’t know what’s up with this organization but it certainly feels like they were set up for a great future after 2018, and that was when everything fell apart. One bad move after the next, and here we are today, in hell.

 

[Jimbodandy]

It’s weird how little love Dombrowski gets compared to other Sox GM’s / Presidents of Baseball Ops. The team won 93, 93, 108, and 84 games on his watch.

Yeah and more importantly a title.

But we do need to remember that what he did was unsustainable. I could take out a second and third mortgage on my house. and travel the world a couple of times. Wife and kids would love it. But eventually all my equity would be gone, and I'd have added years to the end of my working career.

Now, Henry brought DD in for that very reason. And he enjoyed the vacations (so did we), but the bill came due. Now Bloom is tasked with paying down the principal while still taking the fam to the Cape occasionally. We don't know whether we'll see the Cape again soon (or Rome), and the kids are squawking about the same four walls, but the equity in the house is rebounding (boring!).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Our neighbors have nicer houses and are still going to the Cape, though. And the kids are talking about moving in with them.

 

[BaseballJones]

What franchises have, since 2004 (to pick a random season hahaha), both (a) sustained excellence, and (b) won championships?

Not counting this year or 2020 (except I am counting that year in terms of WS titles and place in the division, just not in the win category)...

Yankees
- averaged 93.6 wins
- never had a losing season
- only once finished worse than second (4th in 2016)
- been to 1 World Series
- won 1 World Series

Dodgers
- averaged 90.5 wins
- 1 losing season
- only once finished worse than second (4th in 2010)
- been to 3 World Series
- won 1 World Series

Cardinals
- averaged 90.1 wins
- 1 losing season
- 4x finished worse than second
- been to 4 World Series
- won 2 World Series

Red Sox
- averaged 89.9 wins
- 4 losing seasons
- 8x finished worse than second
- been to 4 World Series
- won 4 World Series

Other really strong organizations:
- Houston - Been great since 2017 but had a stretch of such bleakness that they averaged 63.6 wins from 2009-2014.
- San Francisco - Won 3 World Series, but had 3 straight losing seasons from 2017-2019, and 4 straight losing seasons from 2005-2008.

I'd say the Yankees have had the best run of sustained excellence, but they've only managed to be in one World Series (winning it) in that entire 17 season stretch. The Cardinals have been really good and consistently good and have been to 4 World Series (winning 2). But they've averaged just 0.2 wins more than Boston has over that time, and Boston has won 2 more WS titles (beating StL twice, no less) in the process. The Dodgers have been awesome, but even they have struggled to win it all, only garnering 1 WS title, and that was in the bizarro Covid year.

The Patriots "only" won 6 Lombardis during their great 19 year run, and had the greatest run of excellence in the SB era (even the history of the NFL). But lots of other teams had great stretches and won championships. They just couldn't sustain it for a long stretch of time. Indy with Peyton was the closest thing to what NE had done.

What Boston has done since 2004 is remarkable. No, the Sox haven't always been "good". There have been some terrible years in there. But few franchises have averaged as many wins a season as Boston has over the last 17 years, and nobody has won more championships.

They are clearly in rebuilding mode. The stars from 2018 are either gone (Mookie, Kimbrel, Benintendi, Porcello, Price, Eduardo) or have lost a lot of their effectiveness (JD, Xander, Sale, JBJ - well, he's gone now too -, Barnes, Brasier, Eovaldi).

It's rebuilding time, establishing the new young core of future stars that will take Boston on its next great ride. Stinks to be in this spot, but almost every team in baseball goes through it. Even the Yankees had "down" years where they won "only" 85, 84, 87, and 84 games (2013-2016) and only made the playoffs once in that stretch, despite having opening day payrolls that ranked #1, #2, #2, and #2, respectively, during those years.

It's not fun to be here. But we're here. They need to secure Raffy as the centerpiece of the organization. 25 years old (not a fading star like JD; not even a guy about to hit his 30s like Xander), total stud, one of the best bats in the sport. He's the guy they need to pay, and build around him.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

You left out Tampa Bay, who half the site seems to want the Sox to be like and the other half fears the Sox are turning into

 

[moondog80]

Baseball America released their Red Sox Top 30

1. Mayer
2. Bello
3. Casas
4. Rafaela
5. Yorke
6. Bleis
7. Mata
8. Murphy
9. Walter
10. Jordan
11. Winckowski
12. Romero
13. Lugo
14. W. Gonzalez
15. C. Coffey
16. E. Valdez
17. Rodriguez-Cruz
18. Paulino
19. Downs
20. Bonaci
21. Anthony
22. Abreu
23. Seabold
24. McDonough
25. Ward
26. Hickey
27. Drohan
28. Juan Daniel Encarnacion
29. Ravelo
30. Kavadas

https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1003/boston-red-sox/organizational/

Doesn't look good at the moment for those who bought stock in the Renfroe/JBJ trade.

 

[chawson]

Doesn't look good at the moment for those who bought stock in the Renfroe/JBJ trade.

Noticed that yeah. Both Hamilton and Binelas have fallen completely off the list.

 

[moondog80]

Noticed that yeah. Both Hamilton and Binelas have fallen completely off the list.

I've hammered that trade for the last week and am ready to move on, in the big picture the damage isn't really *that* big, they probably still miss out on the playoffs with Renfroe. But I do hope it serves as little reminder that while it's important to build for the future, today matters too.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

No German either, who was supposedly the reason they took on Ottavino’s deal (although Ottavino was solid and probably should have been resigned). Couple that with the drop for Downs and Wong, and I guess even Seabold and Freddy Valdez and it seems like most of the players the Sox have acquired in deals have lost value. Maybe it doesn’t mean anything, but Winckowski is the only top 15 guy they have traded for.

 

[chawson]

FanGraphs published an interview David Laurila did with Alex Binelas, mostly on the subject of exit velocity.

I thought this part was interesting -- he's been working through a swing change in Portland.

___
Laurila: Have there been swing changes over the years?

Binelas: “I’m actually working through one right now. Just the other day I started trying to get my hands a little farther away from my body in my start. Pretty much my whole career, I’ve been really tight to my body with my hands. Sometimes I can get stuck, to where my swing gets in and out of the zone really quick.

“I’m starting to push my hands a little farther away from my body, which gives them room to work — room to stay inside the ball, make a clean move, and stay short and through the ball so I’m not in and out of the zone. That’s something I’m working on as we speak. Other than that, nothing too crazy.”

Laurila: I assume making more consistent contact is the objective?

Binelas: “Yes. Not getting tied up, so there aren’t as many foul balls and swings and misses. When I put the ball in play… I like to say that nobody hits the ball as hard as me. At the same time, we’ve always talked about how often I can do that. If I can create more contact without losing the exit velo and the damage, that’s the next step in my game. It’s what I most need to work on.”

 

[Manramsclan]

Doesn't look good at the moment for those who bought stock in the Renfroe/JBJ trade.

Counterpoint: Perhaps it is a good sign because the farm is so deep that they aren't able to crack the Top 30?
I have phrased it as a question because my prospect knowledge is not that deep but it is a possible scenario.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Counterpoint: Perhaps it is a good sign because the farm is so deep that they aren't able to crack the Top 30?
I have phrased it as a question because my prospect knowledge is not that deep but it is a possible scenario.

That's probably part of it but a lot if it is their performance to date. Hamilton is slashing .226/.305/.373 in AA and turns 25 in September. He's fast anyway (51 sb, 4cs).
Binelas just turned 22 and is in AA so there's some hope. He's currently slashing .144/.258/.367 in AA with 21bb/59k in 163 PA. 36.2% K%. He also has a .151 BAbip so he's been incredibly unlucky but hard to have much success striking out so much. He has 20 hits in AA, 9 are HR. He's 11/73 when he puts the ball in play.

 

[LoLsapien]

That's probably part of it but a lot if it is their performance to date. Hamilton is slashing .226/.305/.373 in AA and turns 25 in September. He's fast anyway (51 sb, 4cs).
Binelas just turned 22 and is in AA so there's some hope. He's currently slashing .144/.258/.367 in AA with 21bb/59k in 163 PA. 36.2% K%. He also has a .151 BAbip so he's been incredibly unlucky but hard to have much success striking out so much. He has 20 hits in AA, 9 are HR. He's 11/73 when he puts the ball in play.

Binelas is popping up an absolutely absurd amount in AA, over 20%, per FG. Is that indicative of anything specific? Line drives at an ok rate (14%). FB/GB about even (around 45%/40%). Is there any other way to evaluate luck using minor league data besides BABIP? Maybe the new batting approach is indicative of him realizing he doesn't need to swing out of his shoes and jack dongers in order to get hits.

Edit: Maybe IFFB% of 20% isn't absurd. Valdez also consistently has an IFFB rate in the 20s and it hasn't impacted his effectiveness at upper levels of the minors. I just looked at a couple ML dudes seemingly at random, Judge and Ohtani, and those guys have IFFB rate of 3%(!!) and 5% So I assumed that was normal.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I just did a review of the prospects below AA as those seasons have ended. In doing so, I noticed just how young Greenville will be next year. Only one step away from AA. Obviously, to reach AA in your age 20 season, you have to be talented. The list of players who have done so for the sox in the last 20 years is pretty phenomenal.

Cross posting this from the minor league forum:

4 of Greenville's every day players will be 20 years old next year. Mayer, Jordan, Bonaci, Paulino. The last Red Sox player (positional anyway) to make Portland in their age 20 season is Rafael Devers in 2017. Then Margot in 2015, Bogaerts (20) in 2013, Bogaerts (19) in 2012,Heiker Meneses (known filler even at 20) in 2012, Heiker (filler at 19, too) in 2011, Jose Iglesias in 2010, Anthony Rizzo in 2010, Lars Anderson in 2008, Josh Reddick in 2007 (barely, 1 PA), Hanley Ramirez 2004.

Over the last 20 years, the Red Sox have had 9 players reach Portland by age 20 or younger. One was known to be organizational filler in Heiker. Lars flamed out before making the majors. Devers, Bogaerts, Rizzo and Hanley were smashing successes. Iglesias and Reddick had/are having solid careers. Margot is on his way to having a good career. That's an insanely good list and the Sox have a chance to have 4 players make AA next year by age 20. 7 of 9 went on to be (maybe even above) average players or better.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

also pitchers drafted in 2021, with the round before their name.

4th Elmer Rodriguez Cruz: Great season, still sitting 90-93.
7th Wyatt Olds: Still sitting 93-96, topping out around 98.
8th Hunter Dobbins: Was sitting 91-94 and topping out at 96 when drafted. Now sitting around 94-96 and topping out at 98. Well, Speier says 97 but yeah. Not sure why sox prospects hasn't updated.
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1545405257487978498

10th Matt Litwicki: still sitting 93-95 and topping out in the high 90s.
12th Christopher Troye: still in mid 90s and topping out around 98-99.
14th Jacob Webb: Was around 92-93 and topping out at 95 when drafted. He's now back to 95-96 and topping out at 98.
18th Luis Guerrero: Was around 90-92 mph and topping out at 94 when drafted. He's now at 96-98 and topping out at 100.

7 pitchers drafted, 3 have seem a significant bump in velocity, 3 were already high velocity arms and the other is 18 year old Elmer RC who is projected to add some velocity as well.

Webb and Guerrero are looking especially interesting as relief prospects and Dobbins is still a bit rusty from TJS. Their total combined price: $447,500.

The price of the 3 velocity arms: $406,500. The price of Elmer: $497,500.

The international signings are still too young to really judge from 20 and 21 and will be for awhile.

In the 20 draft
Yeiland: TJS, was sitting 93-93 and topping out at 96 when drafted and prior to injury.
Drohan: still at 88-92 and topping out at 94. Lefty.

Anyway, I wonder if Bloom maybe knows how to target pitchers who will have their velocity bounce back and or just improve. The 3 in 2021 weren't HS kids. Dobbins was a month away from 22, Webb was 22. Guerrero was a month away from 21.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

I just did a review of the prospects below AA as those seasons have ended. In doing so, I noticed just how young Greenville will be next year. Only one step away from AA. Obviously, to reach AA in your age 20 season, you have to be talented. The list of players who have done so for the sox in the last 20 years is pretty phenomenal.

Cross posting this from the minor league forum:

4 of Greenville's every day players will be 20 years old next year. Mayer, Jordan, Bonaci, Paulino. The last Red Sox player (positional anyway) to make Portland in their age 20 season is Rafael Devers in 2017. Then Margot in 2015, Bogaerts (20) in 2013, Bogaerts (19) in 2012,Heiker Meneses (known filler even at 20) in 2012, Heiker (filler at 19, too) in 2011, Jose Iglesias in 2010, Anthony Rizzo in 2010, Lars Anderson in 2008, Josh Reddick in 2007 (barely, 1 PA), Hanley Ramirez 2004.

Over the last 20 years, the Red Sox have had 9 players reach Portland by age 20 or younger. One was known to be organizational filler in Heiker. Lars flamed out before making the majors. Devers, Bogaerts, Rizzo and Hanley were smashing successes. Iglesias and Reddick had/are having solid careers. Margot is on his way to having a good career. That's an insanely good list and the Sox have a chance to have 4 players make AA next year by age 20. 7 of 9 went on to be (maybe even above) average players or better.

Thanks for this post. As somebody who has disliked many of Bloom's moves with the major league roster, but who doesn't really follow the minor leagues closely, this is really useful information highlighting the real progress in developing talent is actually occurring right now under his watch.

 

[chawson]

I just did a review of the prospects below AA as those seasons have ended. In doing so, I noticed just how young Greenville will be next year. Only one step away from AA. Obviously, to reach AA in your age 20 season, you have to be talented. The list of players who have done so for the sox in the last 20 years is pretty phenomenal.

Cross posting this from the minor league forum:

4 of Greenville's every day players will be 20 years old next year. Mayer, Jordan, Bonaci, Paulino. The last Red Sox player (positional anyway) to make Portland in their age 20 season is Rafael Devers in 2017. Then Margot in 2015, Bogaerts (20) in 2013, Bogaerts (19) in 2012,Heiker Meneses (known filler even at 20) in 2012, Heiker (filler at 19, too) in 2011, Jose Iglesias in 2010, Anthony Rizzo in 2010, Lars Anderson in 2008, Josh Reddick in 2007 (barely, 1 PA), Hanley Ramirez 2004.

Over the last 20 years, the Red Sox have had 9 players reach Portland by age 20 or younger. One was known to be organizational filler in Heiker. Lars flamed out before making the majors. Devers, Bogaerts, Rizzo and Hanley were smashing successes. Iglesias and Reddick had/are having solid careers. Margot is on his way to having a good career. That's an insanely good list and the Sox have a chance to have 4 players make AA next year by age 20. 7 of 9 went on to be (maybe even above) average players or better.

Interesting look at it, thanks.

I wonder if the pandemic has had any effect on minor-leaguer ages at the upper levels. I’m no expert but I understand there’s a huge gap between A+ and AA right now, and my sense is that that’s still got something to do with the missed 2020 season. Regardless, good analysis. Looking forward to what these fellas eventually do.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Interesting look at it, thanks.

I wonder if the pandemic has had any effect on minor-leaguer ages at the upper levels. I’m no expert but I understand there’s a huge gap between A+ and AA right now, and my sense is that that’s still got something to do with the missed 2020 season. Regardless, good analysis. Looking forward to what these fellas eventually do.

There's always been a huge gap. I haven't heard about it being any worse, I'll have to look into it. I know the gap from AAA to MLB is much bigger than in the past.

I think Salem and Greenville might be younger (and maybe leagues in general) than they usually are because also in 2020, the MiLB went from 160 teams to 120 teams. So players who might have started for the Lowell Spinners are now starting for the Salem Red Sox. Hard to argue with the success of the last 9 positional players to make Portland in their age 20 season though.

This year, in the Carolina League, the average age was 20.7 for hitters. In 2021, it was 21.3. In 2019, the Sally League was low A. The average age of hitters was 21.3. In 2018, it was 21.4. So it looks like the answer is yes to my question. At least this year. Almost half a year younger. Eastern League is trending younger too, but not by as much. Though since 2019, it is.

AA average age of hitter (eastern league)
22: 23.8
21: 23.9
19: 24.1
18: 24.3

A+ (Greenville, Salem)
22: 22.5
21: 22.9
19: 22.7
18: 22.5

Huh. A+ is all over the place. At least as far as Sally League and Carolina league go. Looks like the minors are trending younger though, outside of AAA. AAA is actually older than MLB.

edit: Plus any impact Covid would have on age, would make it less likely players would reach AA by age 20.

 

[teddywingman]

Sounds like cutting Plawecki is an extremely unpopular move in the clubhouse. Maybe you don't make such a pointless move with 17 games left?

I'm only going off an EEI article and some quotes from Cora, but this seems bad.

But hey, we get the humor of watching Almonte for a couple weeks!

 

[YTF]

Sounds like cutting Plawecki is an extremely unpopular move in the clubhouse. Maybe you don't make such a pointless move with 17 games left?

I'm only going off an EEI article and some quotes from Cora, but this seems bad.

But hey, we get the humor of watching Almonte for a couple weeks!

Some might debate the timing, but I can't call it pointless. Plawecki seemed very unlikely to be returning and there's no need to carry three catchers.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Bloom continues to just kill it with his roster moves. Sounds like Eovaldi is pissed (not shocking since that was his personal catcher), which could impact negotiations for a new deal if want to bring him back.

I said this before, and I'll say it again: I don't think Bloom takes clubhouse chemistry or character into consideration when he makes his moves, just the numbers. And that may have worked out perfectly in Tampa, where everybody has a short tenure almost by default, but it's not a good idea here, where people legitimately fall in love with the team and players.

Hopefully someone brings the chemistry thing to his attention a little more this off-season.

I was an advocate of cutting Plawecki three weeks ago, when he might have caught on somewhere else, but to do it now is just a weird move.

 

[teddywingman]

But hey now we get the entertainment of watching Abraham Almonte! Cause surely that needs to happen.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Cutting Plawecki a few weeks ago made more sense than dumping him with 17 games left, in order to see Frank German 4-5 times? There’s a lot of guys on the roster who won’t be here next year, why dump just Plawecki? Then again, the team and player has been lousy so they should expect changes. It certainly doesn’t appear as if these moves are being communicated well; I wonder if there’s a disconnect between the front office and Cora. If these moves have been a surprise, I think that’s the problem.

 

[teddywingman]

Cutting Plawecki a few weeks ago made more sense than dumping him with 17 games left, in order to see Frank German 4-5 times? There’s a lot of guys on the roster who won’t be here next year, why dump just Plawecki? Then again, the team and player has been lousy so they should expect changes. It certainly doesn’t appear as if these moves are being communicated well; I wonder if there’s a disconnect between the front office and Cora. If these moves have been a surprise, I think that’s the problem.

Cora's quote about the team hanging out with Plawecki at his locker and drinking beers definitely indicates to me that Bloom doesn't know his team very well.

What is the advantage gained by dumping Plawecki now?

 

[YTF]

Bloom continues to just kill it with his roster moves. Sounds like Eovaldi is pissed (not shocking since that was his personal catcher), which could impact negotiations for a new deal if want to bring him back.

I said this before, and I'll say it again: I don't think Bloom takes clubhouse chemistry or character into consideration when he makes his moves, just the numbers. And that may have worked out perfectly in Tampa, where everybody has a short tenure almost by default, but it's not a good idea here, where people legitimately fall in love with the team and players.

Hopefully someone brings the chemistry thing to his attention a little more this off-season.

I was an advocate of cutting Plawecki three weeks ago, when he might have caught on somewhere else, but to do it now is just a weird move.

If this impacts negotiations with Eovaldi for next season after he's been a part of a World series winner here here and a part in last year's team then I don't know what to tell you. Let's also consider that cutting Plawecki loose three weeks ago when the Sox weren't yet out of the running may have struck a bigger blow to team chemistry than releasing him now after seeing that Wong may indeed have a future with the team. Collectively the team is in a shitty mood because of the overall performance of the team and Bloom owns part of that, but to say that this move at this time has upset the chemistry of the ball club is is a huge over reaction. It's part of the business and if you're a player it's a shitty part of the business. If they can't see any one of a couple of reasons for this happening (especially those who will still be here next year) then I seriously question their focus on the big picture.

 

[YTF]

Cutting Plawecki a few weeks ago made more sense than dumping him with 17 games left, in order to see Frank German 4-5 times? There’s a lot of guys on the roster who won’t be here next year, why dump just Plawecki? Then again, the team and player has been lousy so they should expect changes. It certainly doesn’t appear as if these moves are being communicated well; I wonder if there’s a disconnect between the front office and Cora. If these moves have been a surprise, I think that’s the problem.

Did I miss something? Has Plawecki been the only player "dumped" here recently? Diekman was traded. Robles, Sawamura, Familia, Davis (Austin and Jaylen) all DFAed and Duran and Dalbec were sent to WOOstah.

 

[sean1562]

The guy has -1.1 bWAR for the year, a .574 OPS, and a 9% caught stealing percentage. What contender is gonna sign that guy to their postseason roster? Out of 57 catchers with at least 150 PAs, he is 51st in fWAR at -0.4. They cut him because he is bad and they want to give Wong and/or McGuire his playing time.

 

[YTF]

Cora's quote about the team hanging out with Plawecki at his locker and drinking beers definitely indicates to me that Bloom doesn't know his team very well.

What is the advantage gained by dumping Plawecki now?

What's the advantage of having three catchers on your team at this point in the season when the best you can dream of is a fourth place finish in your division?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The guy has -1.1 bWAR for the year, a .574 OPS, and a 9% caught stealing percentage. What contender is gonna sign that guy to their postseason roster? Out of 57 catchers with at least 150 PAs, he is 51st in fWAR at -0.4. They cut him because he is bad and they want to give Wong and/or McGuire his playing time.

Yeah, I'm baffled by the argument that they somehow did him wrong by not cutting him before September 1. He's a good clubhouse guy, that much is clear, but that's about all he brings to the table and how much clubhouse influence could he bring to an already playoff-bound team with a month left in the season? If there was a team with a catcher injury that Plawecki could have hooked on with three weeks ago, I may have missed it. But absent that, cutting him now versus three weeks ago probably changes nothing about the remainder of his 2022 season.

As for concerns about the impact on Eovaldi, really? If the linchpin of re-signing Eovaldi this winter is having Plawecki around to catch his one or two remaining starts this year (should he even come of the IL at all), then maybe Eovaldi shouldn't be coming back. His arsenal of pitches isn't so specialized that no one else can possibly do the job.

 

[teddywingman]

Well, the Plaw horse does kinda suck. I won't argue that.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

The guy has -1.1 bWAR for the year, a .574 OPS, and a 9% caught stealing percentage. What contender is gonna sign that guy to their postseason roster? Out of 57 catchers with at least 150 PAs, he is 51st in fWAR at -0.4. They cut him because he is bad and they want to give Wong and/or McGuire his playing time.

Thank you. He wasn’t helping the team on the field and they want to see the 2023 options. It’s rare that a release is applauded by the rest of the team, so expecting it here is surprising.

Playing him the game before releasing him seems to be a thing (he got Familia’d) this team does that I don’t understand, though.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I don’t think anyone is arguing the actual move; just questioning the timing of it and expressing concern that the coaching staff and on field personnel seem so shocked and taken aback by it. The players don’t seem to be aware of, and certainly haven’t bought into, “the plan”. I mean, didn’t Kike have to be convinced that the team would be attempting to win next year? Maybe it doesn’t matter, but maybe it does?

If a leader on the team had said something to the effect “It’s sad to lose Plawy but that’s what happens when a team has a disappointing season, we know they want to get a look at some younger guys, etc etc” it would have been over .

 

[moondog80]

Yeah, I'm baffled by the argument that they somehow did him wrong by not cutting him before September 1. He's a good clubhouse guy, that much is clear, but that's about all he brings to the table and how much clubhouse influence could he bring to an already playoff-bound team with a month left in the season? If there was a team with a catcher injury that Plawecki could have hooked on with three weeks ago, I may have missed it. But absent that, cutting him now versus three weeks ago probably changes nothing about the remainder of his 2022 season.

As for concerns about the impact on Eovaldi, really? If the linchpin of re-signing Eovaldi this winter is having Plawecki around to catch his one or two remaining starts this year (should he even come of the IL at all), then maybe Eovaldi shouldn't be coming back. His arsenal of pitches isn't so specialized that no one else can possibly do the job.

Agree. McGruire and/or Wong might have roles with the team next year, there's no reason to give Plawecki any time at this point. And given McGuire's platoon splits (pretty decent vs RHP, awful vs LHP), I'd like to see them break away a bit from the model of tying pitchers to catchers to a more traditional platoon behind the plate. Is there evidence that the "personal catcher" model works beyond outliers like Wakefield? Maybe if Gerrit Cole is a FA and wants to throw to the same guy all the time you placate him if that's the difference in him coming or not, but Nathan Eovaldi is in no position to dictate roster moves.

 

[LoLsapien]

Didn't the A's famously win the world series with 26 guys, 26 cabs? These are adult professionals. I'm glad they love their jobs and love their team mates. Chemistry definitely makes a team fun when the team is winning, but these guys are competing for their next contracts. If a player's performance suffers because a guy who shouldn't be playing is punted from the team, we may want to consider if that's really a competitor we want to re-sign. This is, as they say, a business. And all the brouhaha we hear in the press about it is noise from writers who lack the creativity to find something more substantive to write about.

 

[BaseballJones]

Maybe the guys in the clubhouse love Plawecki. Totally could be the case. And it always sucks seeing a favorite teammate let go. No way around that. But there's also no way around the fact that he was a well, well, well below average player, who wasn't coming back next year, and given where the Sox are at this point, it's 1000% the right move to take the opportunity to look at some younger guys.

If losing Plawecki is going to have huge negative repercussions on the team, then the team has MAJOR problems that have nothing to do with Bloom.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Didn't the A's famously win the world series with 26 guys, 26 cabs? These are adult professionals. I'm glad they love their jobs and love their team mates. Chemistry definitely makes a team fun when the team is winning, but these guys are competing for their next contracts. If a player's performance suffers because a guy who shouldn't be playing is punted from the team, we may want to consider if that's really a competitor we want to re-sign. This is, as they say, a business. And all the brouhaha we hear in the press about it is noise from writers who lack the creativity to find something more substantive to write about.

25 man rosters in those days. And I think it was the Sox who were known for 25 Cabs. The A's did have internecine battles, though.