Anthony Davis: No Loyalty

lovegtm

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yeah, I think the league as a whole is much lower on their pieces than Magic is.
Ball= Poor Man's Rubio and not even handsome
Ingram= Skinny Jeff Green
Kuzma= Rodney Rodgers 2.0

Honestly, I've seen people (Notably Matt Moore) argue that Hart is the best of the young core because at least he can be a 3 and D option who doesn't need the ball on a contender.
Skinny Jeff Green is perfect: stealing that.
 

lovegtm

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Where would a Murray, Beasley, Morris, Hernangomez and picks for AD rank among potential offers?

Throw in Plumlee for salary purposes and the NO Pelicans have a brand new starting lineup.

edit: Amazing.
Murray 3.5m
Hernangomez 2.2m
Beasley 1.75m
Morris 1.35m

The benefits of drafting well with late first and 2nd rounders. Outside of Murray, anyway.
That's a really strong package imo, and Denver has the depth for it to not cripple them. The 1st rounder would have to be a couple years from now, because of the obligation to Brooklyn.
 

Gunfighter 09

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yeah, I think the league as a whole is much lower on their pieces than Magic is.
Ball= Poor Man's Rubio and not even handsome
Ingram= Skinny Jeff Green
Kuzma= Rodney Rodgers 2.0

Honestly, I've seen people (Notably Matt Moore) argue that Hart is the best of the young core because at least he can be a 3 and D option who doesn't need the ball on a contender.
Come on, I get the rivalry but the race to the bottom of senselessness is silly.


Tell me more about Rubio’s defense and rebounding, which are Lonzo’s strengths. You’re making a comparison off of a 20 month old scouting projection and ignoring 75+ games.

Worst case Kuzma is Hayward 2.0, though he is much better than Gordon was so far in their first three years which were their 21-23 year old seasons.

Skinny Jeff Green is good for BI, and even makes sense half the time. Seeing how Ingram goes from looking like a multiple All Star to Skinny Jeff Green from game to game, that could make sense, if you decided to ignore the fact that Ingram is 21.


I don’t think the Lakers are going much higher than what they have offered. I think they look at themselves more like the team that went 21-5 from November 1 to the LeBron injury in the Christmas day game where they shellacked the Warriors than the team that has been playing .400 ball with LeBron and Lonzo out and Kuzma playing hurt.

They can get Davis in 17 months, they could get Kawahi, Klay, Kyrie or KD this summer. Why would they empty the cupboard now? Magic doesn’t do desperate and they have 50 years of history telling them they will get a huge FA with ownership that believes in that history more than anything. I think the cap on the Lakers offer is 2 of the young 5, 2 picks & veteran filler.
 

tbrown_01923

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Tell me more about Rubio’s defense and rebounding, which are Lonzo’s strengths. You’re making a comparison off of a 20 month old scouting projection and ignoring 75+ games.
Rubio is known for his defense and rebounding. Rebounds and Steals per games are inline with each other as is average DWS. I think it is a fair comparison... at least at this point.
 

Cesar Crespo

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That's a really strong package imo, and Denver has the depth for it to not cripple them. The 1st rounder would have to be a couple years from now, because of the obligation to Brooklyn.
Unless I'm missing something, they could let Millsap and Lyles walk at the end of the year and make a max offer to Kyrie too. Or Butler or anyone. Kyrie would make the most sense.
 

Jimbodandy

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Rubio is known for his defense and rebounding. Rebounds and Steals per games are inline with each other as is average DWS. I think it is a fair comparison... at least at this point.
Agreed. Was shocked that anyone would think differently. Lonzo does exceed the predraft reports there, but to call him "in Rubio's ballpark" is a compliment.

Let's talk about Kuzma's floor as Hayward when he can't pass and doesn't defend.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Worst case Kuzma is Hayward 2.0, though he is much better than Gordon was so far in their first three years which were their 21-23 year old seasons.

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Nice fudging of numbers. Gordon Hayward was younger in his first 2 full seasons than Kuzma was in his rookie year. But yeah, ok. He started his 3rd season in the NBA 3 months older than Kuzma started his rookie season.

I don't even disagree with your overall point that BI, Ball and Kuzma have more value around the league than the Celtics message board but come on.
 

Cellar-Door

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Come on, I get the rivalry but the race to the bottom of senselessness is silly.


Tell me more about Rubio’s defense and rebounding, which are Lonzo’s strengths. You’re making a comparison off of a 20 month old scouting projection and ignoring 75+ games.

Worst case Kuzma is Hayward 2.0, though he is much better than Gordon was so far in their first three years which were their 21-23 year old seasons.

Skinny Jeff Green is good for BI, and even makes sense half the time. Seeing how Ingram goes from looking like a multiple All Star to Skinny Jeff Green from game to game, that could make sense, if you decided to ignore the fact that Ingram is 21.
Ricky Rubio is and has been a very good defender, in fact I'd say comparing either career to career or first 2 years to first 2 years he was a better defender than Ball, he was a better and more efficient passer, not quite the rebounder, but it was closer than you'd expect. He was also a better shooter, a MUCH better FT shooter, and drew FTs at a high rate.
There is no comparison of current Lonzo to young Rubio that could come to any conclusion except that Rubio was the much better player.

Ingram to Green is my favorite, wildly inconsistent, not great at driving and it cripples their abilites. Now Ingram could break out, he's young, but there are a lot of warning signs for a 3rd year guy who hasn't really developed.

Kuzma was probably a mean comparison, but Hayward is not a good comp at all to me. they play different positions for one, Hayward was a wing, Kuzma is mostly a 4. Hayward was much younger coming into the league and through two years a borderline elite 3pt shooter, and showed the starts of being very good at drawing fouls, he was also a better defender and passer, but worse rebounder.


I'll admit, my Kuzma take was hyperbole because I think he's an offense only accumulator, but the other 2 are comps I'd stand by
 

Devizier

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The downside of waiting for Demps...
All that is well and good but only Ball and Ingram are really worth anything. I would rate Ball >> than Ingram but many NBA GMs don't rate Ball at all. I'm guessing Lavar is part of that valuation, but I can't speak to what happens behind the scenes.
 

Cellar-Door

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All that is well and good but only Ball and Ingram are really worth anything. I would rate Ball >> than Ingram but many NBA GMs don't rate Ball at all. I'm guessing Lavar is part of that valuation, because I can't speak to what happens behind the scenes.
I think Kuzma and Hart have value, and probably some GMs like one or both more than either Ball or Ingram. I think the problem is that the guys with the highest floors have the lowest ceilings, and the guy with the highest ceiling has a really low floor, has performed the worst so far and is the closest to a decision on his next deal.
 

queenb

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I personally think the league values the Ball-Ingram-Kuzma-Hart group about as highly as this board does, which is not highly at all. And that the Pelicans especially are not interested. But if there are teams around the league that actually like one or several of these players, won't we know by the deadline? That is: aren't the Lakers probably trying to flip their assets for assets the Pelicans actually want? If Ingram and Ball, and to a lesser extent Kuzma, still have big fans in other front offices, now is the time for Magic to take advantage of that. If they don't, I think it suggests that these guys are indeed seen as middling young players who will soon be overpaid. Though I could see Josh Hart as a guy destined for a bargain deal who becomes Danny Green.
 

lovegtm

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I don't even disagree with your overall point that BI, Ball and Kuzma have more value around the league than the Celtics message board but come on.
Interesting...I listen to/read a lot of national stuff, and I'd say that the average poster here has a higher opinion of Ball/Ingram than does the NBA world as a whole.

Doesn't mean there isn't a GM somewhere in love with Lonzo, but those two are not viewed as tier 1 (Simmone, Luka, Tatum, Mitchell) prospects, and probably don't make many tier 2s (Murray, Booker, JJJ, Fox, Jaylen post-playoffs).
 

lovegtm

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Interesting...I listen to/read a lot of national stuff, and I'd say that the average poster here has a higher opinion of Ball/Ingram than does the NBA world as a whole.

Doesn't mean there isn't a GM somewhere in love with Lonzo, but those two are not viewed as tier 1 (Simmone, Luka, Tatum, Mitchell) prospects, and probably don't make many tier 2s (Murray, Booker, JJJ, Fox, Jaylen post-playoffs).
"Simmone" is a typo, but I've also found my new nickname for him.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Nice fudging of numbers. Gordon Hayward was younger in his first 2 full seasons than Kuzma was in his rookie year. But yeah, ok. He started his 3rd season in the NBA 3 months older than Kuzma started his rookie season.

I don't even disagree with your overall point that BI, Ball and Kuzma have more value around the league than the Celtics message board but come on.

You're right, I mistakenly thought Kuzma was in his third season, not his second. So Kuzma's first two seasons ended with him being 22 & 23, Haywards first three seasons ended with him being 21, 22 & 23. Kuzma's second season features better scoring and rebounding with near identical assists compared to Hayward's third thus far. The hip injury certainly seems to have taken quite a bit away from Kuzma's game over the last 2-3 weeks. They should put him on ice for a couple weeks but the trade talks are probably prohibiting that course of action.


I personally think the league values the Ball-Ingram-Kuzma-Hart group about as highly as this board does, which is not highly at all. And that the Pelicans especially are not interested. But if there are teams around the league that actually like one or several of these players, won't we know by the deadline? That is: aren't the Lakers probably trying to flip their assets for assets the Pelicans actually want? If Ingram and Ball, and to a lesser extent Kuzma, still have big fans in other front offices, now is the time for Magic to take advantage of that. If they don't, I think it suggests that these guys are indeed seen as middling young players who will soon be overpaid. Though I could see Josh Hart as a guy destined for a bargain deal who becomes Danny Green.
Or, it suggests that Magic doesn't feel like he needs to go all in right now. There are plenty of reasons why patience is the better course of action for Magic to take:

- He has evidence from this season that this team, if healthy (big if), can compete in the Western conference as much as any team can with the Warriors sitting in the 1 seed. They have beaten Houston, Denver, OKC, Portland and the Warriors when those teams were relatively healthy. They beat all of those teams except for Denver on the road.

-The Warriors might be so good this season that there is no reason to rush to try and win a title when he can just wait until next year for KD to move to NY.

- He has the cap room for a max contract this off season to afford one of the many available max players this offseason and has the best player in the NBA and the traditionally most attractive franchise / city combo in the league to sell free agents. I guess this point really depends on what you think of the Bill Simmons conspiracy theory on Paul George.

-The player in question wants to come to LA anyway, and worst case will be there in 17 months.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Interesting...I listen to/read a lot of national stuff, and I'd say that the average poster here has a higher opinion of Ball/Ingram than does the NBA world as a whole.

Doesn't mean there isn't a GM somewhere in love with Lonzo, but those two are not viewed as tier 1 (Simmone, Luka, Tatum, Mitchell) prospects, and probably don't make many tier 2s (Murray, Booker, JJJ, Fox, Jaylen post-playoffs).
I don't think anyone anywhere views them as tier 1. Quite a few would lump them in with Jaylen Brown.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I guess it's not really an issue of people underrating the Lakers so much as overrating Jaylen Brown. I prefer Brown too but it's not a slam dunk.
 

lovegtm

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I guess it's not really an issue of people underrating the Lakers so much as overrating Jaylen Brown. I prefer Brown too but it's not a slam dunk.
Sure, but it was a slam dunk in May, and Jaylen has been getting closer to that level the past 2 months. I'd argue he'd probably be perceived as back at that level already, if he had the minutes/opportunity he deserves. Of course, that's hypothetical, so I agree it's closer currently.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Ricky Rubio is and has been a very good defender, in fact I'd say comparing either career to career or first 2 years to first 2 years he was a better defender than Ball, he was a better and more efficient passer, not quite the rebounder, but it was closer than you'd expect. He was also a better shooter, a MUCH better FT shooter, and drew FTs at a high rate.
There is no comparison of current Lonzo to young Rubio that could come to any conclusion except that Rubio was the much better player.

Ingram to Green is my favorite, wildly inconsistent, not great at driving and it cripples their abilites. Now Ingram could break out, he's young, but there are a lot of warning signs for a 3rd year guy who hasn't really developed.

Kuzma was probably a mean comparison, but Hayward is not a good comp at all to me. they play different positions for one, Hayward was a wing, Kuzma is mostly a 4. Hayward was much younger coming into the league and through two years a borderline elite 3pt shooter, and showed the starts of being very good at drawing fouls, he was also a better defender and passer, but worse rebounder.


I'll admit, my Kuzma take was hyperbole because I think he's an offense only accumulator, but the other 2 are comps I'd stand by

Fair enough. Sounds like my perception of Rubio rates some further examination, it looks like I’m wrong.

It is really interesting to me how non Laker fans think of Kuzma as more of a big and Laker fans seem to view him as more of a wing. The conversations about Kuzma (positive and negative) among Lakers fans and sites is very different than the talk here or on NBA reddit etc. That conversation is different not just in terms of his quality and projection but where he actually fits as a player.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The complicating factor in any Pelicans deal is what, exactly, Demps thinks he needs in return. If its young, cost-controlled but not established pieces with upside plus picks that is one thing. However if he firmly believes the only way to save his job is to get some sort of star power to sell to the fanbase, that is an entirely different animal. The former return package potentially allows him to deal with more trade partners while the latter really limits his options.

For example, the Denver package proposed upthread is very interesting and I agree Denver could make that work. But I am not sure that it or even the Toronto packages satisfy the goal of bringing in a young "star". I mean, we all know and like/love guys such as Murray and Hernangomez or someone like Siakam (I love him and think he would be a great centerpiece for the Pelicans to bring in). However, I suspect many casual fans and corporate box-holders have no clue who those players are and what they are doing. Murray and Siakam are players who have each made a leap but they aren't stars, yet, and may never get there.

If star power is a key part of the expected return, Demps is probably going to wait until the offseason. And by the way, deserved or not, I think Tatum ticks the "star power" box more than Murray or Siakam do at present - even considering that you can argue that Siakam is the best of the three and that Murray and Tatum are roughly equal.
 

queenb

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Or, it suggests that Magic doesn't feel like he needs to go all in right now. There are plenty of reasons why patience is the better course of action for Magic to take:

- He has evidence from this season that this team, if healthy (big if), can compete in the Western conference as much as any team can with the Warriors sitting in the 1 seed. They have beaten Houston, Denver, OKC, Portland and the Warriors when those teams were relatively healthy. They beat all of those teams except for Denver on the road.

-The Warriors might be so good this season that there is no reason to rush to try and win a title when he can just wait until next year for KD to move to NY.

- He has the cap room for a max contract this off season to afford one of the many available max players this offseason and has the best player in the NBA and the traditionally most attractive franchise / city combo in the league to sell free agents. I guess this point really depends on what you think of the Bill Simmons conspiracy theory on Paul George.

-The player in question wants to come to LA anyway, and worst case will be there in 17 months.
I think it's possible that Magic will indeed come to this conclusion...now that the Pelicans are ignoring his calls and apparently leaking his initial offer to the press. But I think it just makes the Lakers (pretending not to be desperate) and LeBron (via Klutch, extremely desperate) look out of sync and now they have to do damage control with their young players, not because they think they can win with them and wanted to be patient, but because they need to keep up appearances now to sustain their value for possible future trades.

I think if they offer up 3-4 of the 5 young guys and picks, the Pelicans still refuse. Which is why I'd hesitate to engage further, try to salvage the young guys' confidence so they don't think LeBron has completely lost faith in them, and then just hope that the path in your 3rd and 4th bullets pans out.
 

lovegtm

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If star power is a key part of the expected return, Demps is probably going to wait until the offseason. And by the way, deserved or not, I think Tatum ticks the "star power" box more than Murray or Siakam do at present - even considering that you can argue that Siakam is the best of the three and that Murray and Tatum are roughly equal.
Yup, Demps' need for good optics is one area where Tatum's Kobe shit (plus his playoff run) helps us, imo. Tatum is perceived around the league as an A-list young guy; that is very apparent in all national discussion that I've heard. If Demps wants to save his job, Tatum + picks + NO's own high lottery pick is a good place to start.

Edit: thinking about it more, Tatum, S&T Rozier, and some picks matches salary, and gives the Pels a really clear path forward, building around Holiday and the young core. That team could actually be decent sooner than later: think Indy with Oladipo. The question, of course is what "some picks" ends up meaning. I have to imagine Danny really wants to hold onto MEM if he's going to deal Tatum.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yup, Demps' need for good optics is one area where Tatum's Kobe shit (plus his playoff run) helps us, imo. Tatum is perceived around the league as an A-list young guy; that is very apparent in all national discussion that I've heard. If Demps wants to save his job, Tatum + picks + NO's own high lottery pick is a good place to start.

Edit: thinking about it more, Tatum, S&T Rozier, and some picks matches salary, and gives the Pels a really clear path forward, building around Holiday and the young core. That team could actually be decent sooner than later: think Indy with Oladipo. The question, of course is what "some picks" ends up meaning. I have to imagine Danny really wants to hold onto MEM if he's going to deal Tatum.
This is where I am at. As much as I love watching Tatum, I am firmly in the camp that he will have to go if the C's trade for Davis. I know folks keep saying that Brown plus picks beats a lot of other potential offers but even if that is true, the Pelicans wisely will not budge off of Tatum.

On the flip side, if the cost is Tatum and Brown plus, say, a pick, I think Ainge would consider it but its not as clear. If Ainge walks away from that sort of ask, I can't say I would blame him.
 

lovegtm

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This is where I am at. As much as I love watching Tatum, I am firmly in the camp that he will have to go if the C's trade for Davis. I know folks keep saying that Brown plus picks beats a lot of other potential offers but even if that is true, the Pelicans wisely will not budge off of Tatum.

On the flip side, if the cost is Tatum and Brown plus, say, a pick, I think Ainge would consider it but its not as clear. If Ainge walks away from that sort of ask, I can't say I would blame him.
Tatum's stock is high enough currently that the Celtics might be selling high if they can keep Brown and MEM pick out of the package. Tatum has more expected value than Brown, but the gap in their league perceptions might be bigger than the expected value delta.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Tatum's stock is high enough currently that the Celtics might be selling high if they can keep Brown and MEM pick out of the package. Tatum has more expected value than Brown, but the gap in their league perceptions might be bigger than the expected value delta.
I agree with this.

The issue is that Ainge's love of Davis is well known and Demps should absolutely be asking for the sun, the moon and the stars in return should the opportunity to do a deal arise. I would do Tatum or Brown plus other assets (I am completely irrational on this but I don't want Marcus Smart going anywhere for any deal that brings in another star - but I may be Smart's biggest fan here or...anywhere) but not both. The thing is, I think Ainge would probably deal both in the right package.

Hopefully we will, at least, get to see what sort of deal the C's can put together.
 

lovegtm

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I agree with this.

The issue is that Ainge's love of Davis is well known and Demps should absolutely be asking for the sun, the moon and the stars in return should the opportunity to do a deal arise. I would do Tatum or Brown plus other assets (I am completely irrational on this but I don't want Marcus Smart going anywhere for any deal that brings in another star - but I may be Smart's biggest fan here or...anywhere) but not both. The thing is, I think Ainge would probably deal both in the right package.

Hopefully we will, at least, get to see what sort of deal the C's can put together.
If that package had them keeping Smart, MEM, and SAC picks, I can kind of maybe get behind it. They're both about to get expensive, the Cs have a recovering Hayward, and Smart is going to be great value, which is critical as they approach the tax.

I'm definitely getting worried that AD will become Justise Winslow #2 though.
 

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If that package had them keeping Smart, MEM, and SAC picks, I can kind of maybe get behind it. They're both about to get expensive, the Cs have a recovering Hayward, and Smart is going to be great value, which is critical as they approach the tax.

I'm definitely getting worried that AD will become Justise Winslow #2 though.
The difference is that you’d be getting an MVP caliber player and not some 7th man like Winslow. The only way for the Celtics to “lose” an AD trade is for him to leave after a year.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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The difference is that you’d be getting an MVP caliber player and not some 7th man like Winslow. The only way for the Celtics to “lose” an AD trade is for him to leave after a year.
Yeah there’s almost not an offer too big for a top five player like AD.
 

JCizzle

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Yeah there’s almost not an offer too big for a top five player like AD.
It all hinges on the playoffs this year to me. I feel like this team matches up as well as you can with GSW due to all the switchy parts. Getting there will be a challenge though.
 

bosockboy

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Today’s Jay King piece in The Athletic basically outlines a strategy by Ainge that LAL won’t wait until 2020 on AD due to LBJ wasting another prime year, and will spend this summer. That it’s by this Thursday or never for them. Basically calling AD’s bluff that he will sign there in 2020.
 

Deathofthebambino

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The difference is that you’d be getting an MVP caliber player and not some 7th man like Winslow. The only way for the Celtics to “lose” an AD trade is for him to leave after a year.
And I think that's the biggest part in all of this.

If I'm Ainge, and AD is definitely leaving after a year, then I'm not giving up Tatum and/or Brown. Shit, if I'm only getting one year of AD, and I'm giving up Tatum, that's literally the only thing I'm giving up. I'd tell Demps it's Tatum straight up for AD. If the Lakers want to offer their entire roster, so be it, because they know AD wants to be there for the long haul. I'm not interested in blowing up our young core to take one goddamned run at the playoffs next year with AD. And this is presuming Kyrie even re-signs, right?

Isn't there a possibility we trade Tatum and/or Brown and a bunch of our future for AD in June, and then Kyrie decides to leave in July? Or does Kyrie turn around and only sign a 1 or 2 year deal and we're doing this with him again in short order.

If AD isn't going to commit long term, Danny needs to be really, really careful here. I don't want anything to do with an LA Rams style, go for it now approach to next season. I just don't. Danny has spent 6 years accumulating pieces, building a young base and for the most part, he's done everything right. I don't want to give all that up for one 50/50 shot at winning a title, only to have to start all over again.

So, I guess my question to everyone is:

Assuming you know AD is a one year rental, what are you willing to give up? Now, what do you give up for AD if you know he's a one year rental, and at the time of that trade, you still don't have a commitment from Kyrie to sign long term?
 

BigSoxFan

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And I think that's the biggest part in all of this.

If I'm Ainge, and AD is definitely leaving after a year, then I'm not giving up Tatum and/or Brown. Shit, if I'm only getting one year of AD, and I'm giving up Tatum, that's literally the only thing I'm giving up. I'd tell Demps it's Tatum straight up for AD. If the Lakers want to offer their entire roster, so be it, because they know AD wants to be there for the long haul. I'm not interested in blowing up our young core to take one goddamned run at the playoffs next year with AD. And this is presuming Kyrie even re-signs, right?

Isn't there a possibility we trade Tatum and/or Brown and a bunch of our future for AD in June, and then Kyrie decides to leave in July? Or does Kyrie turn around and only sign a 1 or 2 year deal and we're doing this with him again in short order.

If AD isn't going to commit long term, Danny needs to be really, really careful here. I don't want anything to do with an LA Rams style, go for it now approach to next season. I just don't. Danny has spent 6 years accumulating pieces, building a young base and for the most part, he's done everything right. I don't want to give all that up for one 50/50 shot at winning a title, only to have to start all over again.

So, I guess my question to everyone is:

Assuming you know AD is a one year rental, what are you willing to give up? Now, what do you give up for AD if you know he's a one year rental, and at the time of that trade, you still don't have a commitment from Kyrie to sign long term?
Only way I trade Tatum is if I have assurances from Kyrie that he’ll sign a LT contract and AD will at least consider signing LT. Without either, I keep Tatum.

I would, however, do Brown/Rozier S+T/Mem/filler for an AD rental. Doubt that gets it done though.

This is going to be fascinating. Really comes down to Kyrie. If he’s willing to sign LT without any AD guarantee, that helps this franchise so much.
 

lovegtm

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Only way I trade Tatum is if I have assurances from Kyrie that he’ll sign a LT contract and AD will at least consider signing LT. Without either, I keep Tatum.

I would, however, do Brown/Rozier S+T/Mem/filler for an AD rental. Doubt that gets it done though.

This is going to be fascinating. Really comes down to Kyrie. If he’s willing to sign LT without any AD guarantee, that helps this franchise so much.
Kyrie's willingness to sign without an AD guarantee is going to come down to Hayward's progress, and the progress of the young core in the postseason.

Kyrie, understandably, doesn't want to get trapped on a team without a clear path to a championship. I agree with the posters who think he's probably been pushing Ainge to trade Brown and Rozier for vets.
 

BigSoxFan

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Kyrie's willingness to sign without an AD guarantee is going to come down to Hayward's progress, and the progress of the young core in the postseason.

Kyrie, understandably, doesn't want to get trapped on a team without a clear path to a championship. I agree with the posters who think he's probably been pushing Ainge to trade Brown and Rozier for vets.
Totally agree. Hayward is key. If he’s close to what he once was by next season, Ainge can sell Kyrie on bringing Horford back and the continued development of Tatum/Brown. The best case scenario is getting Kyrie to buy in and then trading Jaylen/Rozier S+T/Time Lord and most of our picks for AD.

Then you’ve got:

Horford
Davis
Tatum
Smart
Kyrie

Hayward as 6th man

That is Ainge’s wet dream. Probably very unlikely but sure this is what he’s going for.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory
And I think that's the biggest part in all of this.

If I'm Ainge, and AD is definitely leaving after a year, then I'm not giving up Tatum and/or Brown. Shit, if I'm only getting one year of AD, and I'm giving up Tatum, that's literally the only thing I'm giving up. I'd tell Demps it's Tatum straight up for AD. If the Lakers want to offer their entire roster, so be it, because they know AD wants to be there for the long haul. I'm not interested in blowing up our young core to take one goddamned run at the playoffs next year with AD. And this is presuming Kyrie even re-signs, right?

Isn't there a possibility we trade Tatum and/or Brown and a bunch of our future for AD in June, and then Kyrie decides to leave in July? Or does Kyrie turn around and only sign a 1 or 2 year deal and we're doing this with him again in short order.

If AD isn't going to commit long term, Danny needs to be really, really careful here. I don't want anything to do with an LA Rams style, go for it now approach to next season. I just don't. Danny has spent 6 years accumulating pieces, building a young base and for the most part, he's done everything right. I don't want to give all that up for one 50/50 shot at winning a title, only to have to start all over again.

So, I guess my question to everyone is:

Assuming you know AD is a one year rental, what are you willing to give up? Now, what do you give up for AD if you know he's a one year rental, and at the time of that trade, you still don't have a commitment from Kyrie to sign long term?
Still worth it to give up whatever it takes for AD.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,457
Mark Jackson on TV very adamant that Pelicans should trade Davis before the deadline.....

Oh course, Jackson is a Klutch client.
And Jackson is allegedly who LeBron wants to coach the Lakers once he gets Walton fired.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Mark Jackson on TV very adamant that Pelicans should trade Davis before the deadline.....

Oh course, Jackson is a Klutch client.
And Jackson is allegedly who LeBron wants to coach the Lakers once he gets Walton fired.
I came here to post similar. Listening Jackson say that this Laker package, "guarantees their future" was chilling. Hearing Van Gundy put together the phrase, "No....it guarantees.....them....mediocrity!" put a warm smile on my face like when I watch a WWE match.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,713
Jackson is allegedly who LeBron wants to coach the Lakers once he gets Walton fired.
Hahahaha, really? Maybe a coach doesn't matter much for a LBJ team, but wow, Jackson is a bozo, good luck with that.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,996
Hahahaha, really? Maybe a coach doesn't matter much for a LBJ team, but wow, Jackson is a bozo, good luck with that.
Magic as GM, Jackson as coach, and wait for AD to sign in 2020! The plan is foolproof!
 

HowBoutDemSox

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2009
10,103
Hahahaha, really? Maybe a coach doesn't matter much for a LBJ team, but wow, Jackson is a bozo, good luck with that.
And Jackson is also a big personality, not quite someone like Lue who will do as LeBron wants. I have trouble seeing them working well together, even if Jackson was a better coach talent.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,996
LeBron and the Lakers feel like a Boomer who can't understand that no one cares about The Sixties and that 70 isn't the new 30.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
41,946
Still worth it to give up whatever it takes for AD.
Really? For one year of AD? When you say whatever it takes, does that mean you'd move Tatum and Brown?

Where's that leave you in 2021, when AD heads off to LA? Kyrie ain't signing no long term deal in July, if AD isn't committed long term. Maybe Kyrie gives us 2 years, so he can make a run with AD for a year, but I think that's best case scenario.

I truly believe if we trade for AD, and he says he's not signing a contract, Kyrie is either going to bolt, or he's signing a 1 and done, or maybe 2 year deal.

So you're going to give up Tatum and/or Brown (plus whatever else we toss in) for a year of AD, maybe Kyrie, Horford, Gordon, Smart? And then in 2020, we've got a 35 year old Horford, no AD, maybe no Kyrie, no Tatum and/or no Brown. It's basically Smart/Gordon/TimeLord.

We could basically go from a team that was one game from the NBA finals in 2017, then added GH and Kyrie in 2018, and by 2021, we're a lottery team again?

That's what scares me about this whole AD situation. I don't want anything to do with him if he's not signing long term and/or we don't already have a commitment from Kyrie, but the timing is the problem. We can't re-sign Kyrie until July 1st, but the NBA draft is June 20th, so any real trades involving AD, etc. will have already happened. If at that moment, Kyrie is still waffling, uggh....

Danny has to be so careful here or he could undo everything he built in about a 3 week period. I almost want AD to get traded before the deadline now, so we don't have to worry about this come summer. Let this group of guys focus on this season, go and make a deep run in the playoffs and convince Kyrie that the decision he made in October was the right one, and he commits to sticking around.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
And Jackson is also a big personality, not quite someone like Lue who will do as LeBron wants. I have trouble seeing them working well together, even if Jackson was a better coach talent.
I thought Mark Jackson was a mediocre coach. Steve Kerr coached what was pretty much the same team with a much steadier hand, with incredible results.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,996
Really? For one year of AD? When you say whatever it takes, does that mean you'd move Tatum and Brown?

Where's that leave you in 2021, when AD heads off to LA? Kyrie ain't signing no long term deal in July, if AD isn't committed long term. Maybe Kyrie gives us 2 years, so he can make a run with AD for a year, but I think that's best case scenario.

I truly believe if we trade for AD, and he says he's not signing a contract, Kyrie is either going to bolt, or he's signing a 1 and done, or maybe 2 year deal.

So you're going to give up Tatum and/or Brown (plus whatever else we toss in) for a year of AD, maybe Kyrie, Horford, Gordon, Smart? And then in 2020, we've got a 35 year old Horford, no AD, maybe no Kyrie, no Tatum and/or no Brown. It's basically Smart/Gordon/TimeLord.

We could basically go from a team that was one game from the NBA finals in 2017, then added GH and Kyrie in 2018, and by 2021, we're a lottery team again?

That's what scares me about this whole AD situation. I don't want anything to do with him if he's not signing long term and/or we don't already have a commitment from Kyrie, but the timing is the problem. We can't re-sign Kyrie until July 1st, but the NBA draft is June 20th, so any real trades involving AD, etc. will have already happened. If at that moment, Kyrie is still waffling, uggh....

Danny has to be so careful here or he could undo everything he built in about a 3 week period. I almost want AD to get traded before the deadline now, so we don't have to worry about this come summer. Let this group of guys focus on this season, go and make a deep run in the playoffs and convince Kyrie that the decision he made in October was the right one, and he commits to sticking around.
One helpful thing is that we're not allowed to actually do the deal until Jul 1, when Kyrie becomes a FA. Danny could easily have talks with Kyrie around the time of the draft, tell him the proposed deal, and ask "if this deal gets done, will you sign a 4-5 year deal?" You then tell the Pels that Kyrie is on board, and you're doing the deal contingent on his putting pen to paper immediately on July 1. NO is expecting that--they've always known the Celtics only do this if Kyrie is back.

It sounds complex, but this is a pretty normal amount of moving parts for one of these transactions.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,111
Santa Monica
Mark Jackson on TV very adamant that Pelicans should trade Davis before the deadline.....

Oh course, Jackson is a Klutch client.
And Jackson is allegedly who LeBron wants to coach the Lakers once he gets Walton fired.
UGH. This is disgusting.

Jackson relentlessly shilling Ingram and Kuzma, comparing Ingram to Durant.

As crazy as this sounds I'd rather see AD on the Raptors than on the Lakers (yes, I'm being completely irrational here and I'm wrong)
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,996
UGH. This is disgusting.

Jackson relentlessly shilling Ingram and Kuzma, comparing Ingram to Durant.

As crazy as this sounds I'd rather see AD on the Raptors than on the Lakers (yes, I'm being completely irrational here and I'm wrong)
I'd enjoy it more if the Lakers traded away all future assets for AD, and then LeBron had a career-ending injury or declined massively. AD is stuck right back in an NO-type situation. I don't normally root for injuries or bad fortune, but LeBron and AD have shown themselves to be massive tools this past week, and karma is a bitch.