This is why JakeRae referred to regression to his career norms. Of course variance could go either way, but it's most likely to regress to the mean. (Or to a slightly higher mean, given the benefits of experience for young players.)You're assuming he won't have another bad stretch and that Ingram won't have a good one. At any given time, you can look up Eric Gordon and he's either shooting .311 or .375 from 3. Variance is a real thing.