Anthony Davis: No Loyalty

lovegtm

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You're assuming he won't have another bad stretch and that Ingram won't have a good one. At any given time, you can look up Eric Gordon and he's either shooting .311 or .375 from 3. Variance is a real thing.
This is why JakeRae referred to regression to his career norms. Of course variance could go either way, but it's most likely to regress to the mean. (Or to a slightly higher mean, given the benefits of experience for young players.)
 

Cesar Crespo

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Either way, everyone who has been named besides Tatum falls into the same tier of "I don't want to pay them after their rookie deals expire."
 

Imbricus

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If I'm Ainge, there's no way in hell Tatum gets on that plane to New Orleans if Davis doesn't agree that he'll extend. I sure hope that's Ainge's position. I'm not confident it is though.
 

Jimbodandy

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Either way, everyone who has been named besides Tatum falls into the same tier of "I don't want to pay them after their rookie deals expire."
Yet oddly enough, in a league that prioritizes elite, max players and productive rookie deal guys only (very much like the layup-or-3pt mantra), Danny signed Bradley, Crowder, and Smart to non-rookie, non-max deals that all turned out to be awesome for us (jury not fully in on Smart obviously, but so far so good). There are many ways to win. Plus if Brown or Ball/Ingram/Kuzma, for that matter, takes a huge leap, then that max or near-max deal isn't a hard pill to swallow. If they don't, then sure, I think that we're all in agreement that a max deal for what Jaylen is today is not a great contract. But I don't see anyone arguing in favor of that.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Do you think Ingram and Brown won't get the max or close to it? I do. I think there's a very good chance Rozier ends up being the better contract of the 3, and possibly the worst player at the same time.
 

Jimbodandy

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Do you think Ingram and Brown won't get the max or close to it? I do. I think there's a very good chance Rozier ends up being the better contract of the 3, and possibly the worst player at the same time.
Yes, probably. But we don't know what those guys will be in another year plus. I agree that there's a certain amount of speculation on most 24/25yo guys approaching their second deal, and some of those guys have been way overpaid. I also have faith in Ainge not to do something too stupid, especially since we might by in luxury tax hell already.
 

mcpickl

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You keep saying there are multiple bidders. At this point, we know of one. We know that one other team is going to bid but there aren't multiple bidders that we know about. At this point.
Well, your point is the Celtics have the leverage in a Pelicans trade, right? So, at a minimum we know of two bidders in that scenario, correct? The Celtics and the Lakers. That's multiple bidders.

And just because you don't know of any for sure right now, what's your thinking? Think maybe there will be more? I know, you can't know for sure, but what do you think?

Just because the Lakers leak their offers to anyone who'll listen, doesn't mean every team operates the same way. I promise, multiple teams are interested in AD.
 

Eddie Jurak

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This is the best post I’ve read all day describing the Pelicans situation. The idea that AD is a depreciating asset isn’t the case at all considering his value actually increases after the season once the Celtics enter the fracas.

As long as the Celtics are involved the Pelicans have a ton of leverage. Since they presumably will be in it to the end there will be at least some semblance of a bidding war.
Yes. It's not as if the Lakers are willing to fork over a big package now but 4 months from now they would be out.
 

NomarsFool

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Well, if I'm the Lakers, and I don't believe I can outbid the Celtics, and I believe the Pelicans are being unreasonable in their demands for AD, I would absolutely look at what other options are out there and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them use some of their assets to acquire another player, taking them out of the AD bidding process entirely. Because if AD is traded somewhere else, it makes it look like the Lakers are desperate, the price for their Plan B options go up.

In the same vein, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Celtics made a move on somebody else if they felt that the price was more reasonable and/or they were unlikely to win AD's services. If that's what you believe, better to do it before AD is traded than afterwards.
 

amfox1

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Marc Stein @TheSteinLine 6m6 minutes ago
Anthony Davis has the Knicks on equal footing with the Lakers in terms of teams he is interested in signing with long-term, @NYTSports has learned. The Clippers and Bucks also remain preferred destinations on his list

Marc Stein‏ @TheSteinLine 5m5 minutes ago
And whether he is traded before Thursday's 3 PM trade deadline or in the offseason, league sources say, Davis intends to play out the remainder of his current contract and become a free agent in 2020 no matter where he lands.

Marc Stein‏ @TheSteinLine 4m4 minutes ago
Davis, I'm told, prefers becoming a free agent in July 2020 to signing an extension with any team that acquires him

Marc Stein @TheSteinLine 4m4 minutes ago
The Knicks could still try to trade for Davis before the deadline or wait until after the draft lottery in May, when the world will know how strong their top pick in June is. Either way, New York has ample encouragement to pursue a Davis trade before its big free-agent summer

Marc Stein‏ @TheSteinLine 3m3 minutes ago
Sources say Davis, meanwhile, remains adamant that he will not sign a long-term deal with Boston if the Celtics trade for him in July and that he would like to play out the rest of the season for the Pelicans if there's no trade by tomorrow's deadline

Marc Stein‏ @TheSteinLine 55s56 seconds ago
The Pelicans have not yet disclosed their intentions regarding Davis should they elect to keep him past Thursday's 3 PM deadline. Davis wanted to play in both of New Orleans' games this week but was understandably held out by the Pelicans

**

Looks like AD's agent is raising the white flag to getting him traded by tomorrow.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Looks like AD's agent is raising the white flag to getting him traded by tomorrow.
In a complete coincidence, Davis' agent is playing in Boston tomorrow as well. There will be chants and, perhaps, extra space next to the top Klutch agent on his team's bench too.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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How many voice modulators does Rich Paul use in order to become his alter ego Sources?
You are asking the wrong question. The right one is what sort of range LeBron gets out of Rich Paul when he is "speaking". I mean, can LeBron control him from across town, in the same time zone or even across the country?
 

DJnVa

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FWIW, Woj was on ESPN radio this morning and said Tatum is the most valuable chip available, including a potential #1 pick.
 

BaseballJones

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FWIW, Woj was on ESPN radio this morning and said Tatum is the most valuable chip available, including a potential #1 pick.
Interesting question....is Tatum more valuable than, say, Zion Williamson? Zion is an absolutely electric, and totally intriguing, talent, and may end up being a megastar in the NBA. But right now, he's still just a prospect. Tatum is already essentially a shade below NBA all-star level, and is just two years older than Zion, so it's not like Tatum is some grizzled veteran.

If you're the Celtics, who would you rather have: Tatum or Zion? If you're New Orleans, who would you rather have? Gotta be Tatum, right? But man, Zion....what an intriguing player.
 

DJnVa

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Tatum is considered, by the league, to have All-NBA potential. They don’t know what Zion has. Again, this is Woj, so he’s plugged in.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think both players are future all-stars so it’s a matter of preference. Tatum definitely has more value to a team like the Celtics that is capable of winning now. Zion probably has more value to a franchise like New Orleans that prefers to have more years of control. However, I also think it’s reasonable for them to value Tatum more since we know what Tatum is at the NBA level and Zion is an unknown.
 

DJnVa

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I think both players are future all-stars so it’s a matter of preference. Tatum definitely has more value to a team like the Celtics that is capable of winning now. Zion probably has more value to a franchise like New Orleans that prefers to have more years of control. However, I also think it’s reasonable for them to value Tatum more since we know what Tatum is at the NBA level and Zion is an unknown.
Actually, what Woj is saying is that Tatum has more value to them. The Pelicans #1 priority is getting back a potential All-NBA player. Not a potential all-star. They feel Tatum is more likely to be that because Zion is such a unique prospect.

Now, he could be wrong, and they could eventually jump at a potential #1, but he said the league talk now is that the Pelicans want Tatum.

And either way, I don't think anyone in the Lakers offer gets there. And it would be AMAZING if he doesn't package the Memphis pick.
 

BigSoxFan

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Actually, what Woj is saying is that Tatum has more value to them. The Pelicans #1 priority is getting back a potential All-NBA player. Not a potential all-star. They feel Tatum is more likely to be that because Zion is such a unique prospect.

Now, he could be wrong, and they could eventually jump at a potential #1, but he said the league talk now is that the Pelicans want Tatum.

And either way, I don't think anyone in the Lakers offer gets there. And it would be AMAZING if he doesn't package the Memphis pick.
Gotcha and very interesting. I can see some variation in opinion on Zion's potential. Tatum is going to be an absolute force in a few years once his body fills out and skills continue to develop. Pelicans must be salivating over him.

I agree that it would be great if Pelicans valued Tatum so highly that they didn't require the Memphis pick to be included. You figure this pretty much rules out any deal not involving Tatum. If we want AD, Tatum is a goner. Just have to hope this deadline comes and goes without a trade but if a surprise AD trade happens, having to keep Jayson Tatum is a pretty solid fallback option.
 

Big John

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I believe he Pelicans' evaluation of Tatum is correct, which is why he should be off limits, especially in a trade for a player who insists that he will only be a one year rental. I'm biased of course because I love to watch Tatum play. He has an unbelievably polished game for a 20 year-old.

Tatum, Smart (great contract) and Irving (if he resigns) should be untouchable.
 

bosockboy

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Barring a last minute cave from Demps, there’s a really strong likelihood AD is going to be a Celtic this summer if Tatum is the prize for NO. Ainge handled the Klutch Psyops campaign like a fiddle.
 

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That brings an interesting question: For the sake of debate, if the offer is Brown, Rozier, Smart, SAC #1, MEM #1 or Tatum, SAC #1, filler which is preferred?

A big part of that answer is also how likely is Hayward to improve...
 

BigSoxFan

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That brings an interesting question: For the sake of debate, if the offer is Brown, Rozier, Smart, SAC #1, MEM #1 or Tatum, SAC #1, filler which is preferred?

A big part of that answer is also how likely is Hayward to improve...
I prefer any deal that doesn't involve Tatum but am resigned to the fact that he's a goner.
 

lexrageorge

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No, you're only allowed one Rose rule player per roster. It's why Minnesota ultimately had to trade Kevin Love. They declined to give him the Rose contract because they wanted to save it for Ricky Rubio and as a result Love was slated to hit free agency two years earlier than he needed to.
Not correct. From the CBA FAQ:

There is a limit to the number of designated players a team can have on its roster at a time. A team can have up to two designated rookies (who received a longer rookie scale extension) and up to two designated veterans (who received higher than the 30% maximum salary) at any time. However, only one designated rookie and one designated veteran may have been acquired from another team in a trade.
Both Kyrie and AD are considered "designated rookies", a designation that will disappear for Kyrie come July 1st.

The bolded means that the Celtics could, theoretically, have both Tatum and Brown on designated rookie deals once their rookie deals expire. Not saying that will happen, and certainly won't happen if Ainge is able to acquire Fitzgerald.
 

Ed Hillel

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I prefer any deal that doesn't involve Tatum but am resigned to the fact that he's a goner.
I have to be honest, there is a part of me that hopes Kyrie leaves and we extend the window out around Tatum and maybe Brown. Next year would be fun if Kyrie stays, but I still think Davis would jet if Kyrie stayed and I don’t like giving up 15 years of Tatum for that. Not one bit.
 

lexrageorge

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I have to be honest, there is a part of me that hopes Kyrie leaves and we extend the window out around Tatum and maybe Brown. Next year would be fun if Kyrie stays, but I still think Davis would jet if Kyrie stayed and I don’t like giving up 15 years of Tatum for that. Not one bit.
I'm with you. I really would hope that Ainge doesn't move Tatum unless and until he has some reassurance that Davis would be willing to stay. While I do believe the dynamics will be very different in June than they are today, I'm not at all convinced that Boston is high on Davis' list, nor do I believe Milwaukee or Toronto are for that matter. But that is admittedly 100% speculation.
 

Big John

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When Curry, Thompson and Green started to develop, Golden State didn't trade one of them away for the latest shiny toy who demanded a trade.
 

Red Averages

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When Curry, Thompson and Green started to develop, Golden State didn't trade one of them away for the latest shiny toy who demanded a trade.
Neither did OKC.... or any other team that hasn't won anything despite holding on to their draft picks. If you can constantly acquire better assets you should.
 

joe dokes

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I believe that on July 1st you will see Kyrie re-sign for the 5-year max and AD traded to the Celtics for a package headlined by Jayson Tatum.
Does Davis's announced intent to play out the contract lower the trade cost beyond the headline?
 

bakahump

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I believe that on July 1st you will see Kyrie re-sign for the 5-year max and AD traded to the Celtics for a package headlined by Jayson Tatum.
I can see this.

So lets take it a step further. So assuming that Tatum is gone, as well as Bob Williams and a few picks, that leaves a Kyrie, Davis, Brown, Hayward and smart as your 5. You also lose Al, Rozier, Morris and Baynes (right?).
You draft at most a deep bench guy with your left over picks and you probably pick up a Ring Chasing vet or 2. So seemingly a pretty thing bench. But an excellent starting 5.

1.Does that team win the east?
2. Does that team win the NBA Championship?
3. Is that a "Good team" from a chemistry stand point?
4. If #1 and the Supermax does Davis turn down a LT extension?
5. If #2 and the Supermax does Davis turn down a LT extension?
6. Will #3 influence him staying if we assume #1 or #2?
 

OnWisc

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Even if New Orleans is open to the Laker's offer, they'd be better off waiting until this summer to accept it anyway, as both their own and the Laker's 2019 first rounders will be favorably impacted by not doing the trade now. By not acquiring Davis now, the value of the Lakers offer can actually appreciate by the summertime.

I don't think there's much of a chance the Lakers walk back their offer either as 1) with the restrictions removed on the Celtics ability to deal and the uncertainties surrounding the lottery resolved, there'll be more competition for AD's services, not less, and 2) it's not like what the Laker's have on the table is an overpay, or anything close to it. The reason their offer isn't competitive is that they just flat out don't possess assets of sufficient value. Should their 2019 pick land favorably, their offer doesn't become overwhelming, it just becomes less shitty. If they then try compensate for the enhanced value of the 2019 pick by taking other elements off the table, I think they'll be getting the same response they are getting now.

Either way, I wouldn't be shocked to see AD dealt today. I would be shocked to see him go to the Lakers.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Barring a last minute cave from Demps, there’s a really strong likelihood AD is going to be a Celtic this summer if Tatum is the prize for NO. Ainge handled the Klutch Psyops campaign like a fiddle.
I'm sure offshore books have numbers on this but I'd imagine the AD/Tatum swap has to be the favorite.

Does Davis's announced intent to play out the contract lower the trade cost beyond the headline?
Nobody is buying this fictitious list that Paul created to try and scare Ainge away for the purpose of closing a deal with LA by this afternoon.
 

Jimbodandy

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Are we sure that Al is gone if Kyrie signs and Davis can be brought in with Tatum, TL, filler, and some sign and trade magic with Rozier and/or Morris occurs? I get that lux limitations exist, but I'm not informed enough to understand if it's onerous enough or aproned to prevent Al staying.

AD, KI, GH, MS, JB, and AH is a damn fine top six, presuming GH takes steps this summer and JB continues to develop. Ainge has proven to be able to find middling guys that fit before.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Harden was traded (they failed to sign him to an extension, but that's on OKC)
I'm not sure there isn't more to the story. If you're Harden at that stage of your career and know how good you are.....why would you sign a contract to play 3rd fiddle to RWB and Durant? This never passed the smell test to me which is why I never put any of the blame on OKC in regards to the Harden trade.
 

RoyHobbs

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Pg. 35 of "Win it For"
Can someone with a better insight into today's Xs and Os than I have (which is probably 98% of people in this forum) explain how Ainge/Stevens might envision an "Celtics with AD" to be different and, presumably, better than a "Celtics with JT"? Genuine question, not looking for any snark, etc.

Yes, I know AD is one of the superstars and the goal nowadays is to try and land one of those dudes. But simply put, I find watching Tatum (and envisioning what he might become) on my team to be enjoyable & am curious what the C's look like on the floor if he goes.
 

lexrageorge

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I can see this.

So lets take it a step further. So assuming that Tatum is gone, as well as Bob Williams and a few picks, that leaves a Kyrie, Davis, Brown, Hayward and smart as your 5. You also lose Al, Rozier, Morris and Baynes (right?).
You draft at most a deep bench guy with your left over picks and you probably pick up a Ring Chasing vet or 2. So seemingly a pretty thing bench. But an excellent starting 5.

1.Does that team win the east?
2. Does that team win the NBA Championship?
3. Is that a "Good team" from a chemistry stand point?
4. If #1 and the Supermax does Davis turn down a LT extension?
5. If #2 and the Supermax does Davis turn down a LT extension?
6. Will #3 influence him staying if we assume #1 or #2?
Horford could come back at less than the max; at the very least I wouldn't count him out totally, as he probably wants a ring just as badly as those ring chasing vets.

Biggest issue I see from a chemistry point would be Brown, who will be angling to get a max contract of his own.

It's definitely, IMO, a championship contender, especially if Hayward returns to 90-95% of his pre-injury form (I still think he's at 70-75% right now).

AD would no longer be eligible for the supermax, as he will changed teams after his first 4 seasons.

If Davis is truly ambivalent about being in Boston, or slightly down on the idea, I think getting to the Finals could sway him to stay. OTOH, winning the Championship could have the opposite effect; he may decide he's got the one ring, and that he would really like to be either in the bright lights of LA or NY, or closer to home while teaming up with Giannis, while still assuming he'll get at least one more shot at a ring with his new team.