Anthony Davis: No Loyalty

PedroKsBambino

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It's wise to look at Ingram, Ball, and Kuzma as different kinds of assets.

1. Ingram was basically a bust until this year, but he showed something in the weird point-forward role he was playing wtih Lebron out. So, on-court, he looks like a guy with some upside left but a lot of good stats/bad team projection to him. Not much of a defensive player, may need the ball more than his efficiency merits, etc. Plus, of course, he is near end of his cost-controlled deal and oh yeah---he has a scary, unpredictable medical condition. If he were a FA right now what would he get? Something like MLE money on a one-plus-one right? If his medical stuff checks out then he's perhaps $10 mil a year? Is it clear he's a better player than Randle (2/$18 incl. player option). I think he isn't today, and so you're betting on upside there.

2. Ball is higher floor and higher ceiling. You can still imagine him as a starter on a contender; however, his shooting remains a major gap and he looks a lot more like Ricky Rubio right now than a star. His stats last year shooting-wise are an improvement, but the motion and overall numbers remain worrisome. The family stuff is a non-zero factor and while he certainly still has value teams are going to hvae very different valuations of him---some are going to say the shooting problem makes him a borderline starter and thus not a big asset on his current deal'; others will see Jason Kidd-lite potential and feel it's a great buy-low opportunity especially at his age and the improvement in shooting last year.

3. Kuzma is a useful player for a good team right now, unlike the two guys above. But there's reason to doubt he's ever going to be more htan that, he can't defend and is really just a good shooter with questionable skills beyond that (and worth noting his 3pt shooting last year was actually really bad). While he has a sixth-man level floor I think his chances of being more than the fourth guy on a good team aren't all that great, are they? I guess you can project some physical development that helps the defense and perhaps he becomes a better passer as well, but his value is to a good degree the shooting...and that wasn't really there last year. He's a guy who fits best on a good team, not a NOLA or a team with a lottery pick to deal. Or maybe he's a good stats-bad team guy (which is in fact what he was last year).
 

RedOctober3829

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Lots of NOP twitter thinks the hold up is that NOP wants Tatum and Brown or Tatum and the Memphis pick.
Anyone working in sports media in New Orleans seems to have sources indicating that the Pelicans like what the Celtics are offering them more than anybody. Anyone outside of NOLA like Marc Stein and others are pushing the Lakers angle. I would tend to believe that the people in NOLA would have better access to Pelicans sources. Put two and two together and I'm leaning more and more towards AD going to Boston.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's wise to look at Ingram, Ball, and Kuzma as different kinds of assets.

1. Ingram was basically a bust until this year, but he showed something in the weird point-forward role he was playing wtih Lebron out. So, on-court, he looks like a guy with some upside left but a lot of good stats/bad team projection to him. Not much of a defensive player, may need the ball more than his efficiency merits, etc. Plus, of course, he is near end of his cost-controlled deal and oh yeah---he has a scary, unpredictable medical condition. If he were a FA right now what would he get? Something like MLE money on a one-plus-one right? If his medical stuff checks out then he's perhaps $10 mil a year? Is it clear he's a better player than Randle (2/$18 incl. player option). I think he isn't today, and so you're betting on upside there.

2. Ball is higher floor and higher ceiling. You can still imagine him as a starter on a contender; however, his shooting remains a major gap and he looks a lot more like Ricky Rubio right now than a star. His stats last year shooting-wise are an improvement, but the motion and overall numbers remain worrisome. The family stuff is a non-zero factor and while he certainly still has value teams are going to hvae very different valuations of him---some are going to say the shooting problem makes him a borderline starter and thus not a big asset on his current deal'; others will see Jason Kidd-lite potential and feel it's a great buy-low opportunity especially at his age and the improvement in shooting last year.

3. Kuzma is a useful player for a good team right now, unlike the two guys above. But there's reason to doubt he's ever going to be more htan that, he can't defend and is really just a good shooter with questionable skills beyond that (and worth noting his 3pt shooting last year was actually really bad). While he has a sixth-man level floor I think his chances of being more than the fourth guy on a good team aren't all that great, are they? I guess you can project some physical development that helps the defense and perhaps he becomes a better passer as well, but his value is to a good degree the shooting...and that wasn't really there last year. He's a guy who fits best on a good team, not a NOLA or a team with a lottery pick to deal. Or maybe he's a good stats-bad team guy (which is in fact what he was last year).
With regards to Ingram, I think the better question is if he would get a rookie contract extension if he were eligble this year and how much would he get. Here's the list of who got one last year and who is eligible for one next year: https://hoopshype.com/2019/05/23/nba-rookie-scale-extension-list-players-summer-offseason-2019/. It's hard to say what would happen right now, but LAL would try to extend him and there's no way Ingram would sign a 4/$40MM. He'd want way more than that - maybe even what Myles Turner got.

As for his defense, he definitely can play it in spots. After all, remember what he did when he was guarding KI. So he has some ability on that end (although maybe not enough focus).

As for Ball, do you really mean "higher ceiling"? I guess he could have a really high ceiling if he could learn how to shoot but he'd have to completely re-work his mechanics and I don't know if he's shown any willingness to do that. Until that point, I would definitely say that he has a much lower ceiling than Ingram.
 

BigSoxFan

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Anyone working in sports media in New Orleans seems to have sources indicating that the Pelicans like what the Celtics are offering them more than anybody. Anyone outside of NOLA like Marc Stein and others are pushing the Lakers angle. I would tend to believe that the people in NOLA would have better access to Pelicans sources. Put two and two together and I'm leaning more and more towards AD going to Boston.
Lots can change quickly but I feel like Danny is going to get his guy. I think AD goes to LA only if Ainge bows out.
 

Average Game James

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Anyone working in sports media in New Orleans seems to have sources indicating that the Pelicans like what the Celtics are offering them more than anybody. Anyone outside of NOLA like Marc Stein and others are pushing the Lakers angle. I would tend to believe that the people in NOLA would have better access to Pelicans sources. Put two and two together and I'm leaning more and more towards AD going to Boston.
Or New Orleans is trying to get more out of LA by floating that they like Boston’s assets better.
 

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Fwiw, I keep looking at the thread title and I think it would be supremely funny if it was changed to Anthony Davis: Celtic for Life if he signs with us.
 

PedroKsBambino

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With regards to Ingram, I think the better question is if he would get a rookie contract extension if he were eligble this year and how much would he get. Here's the list of who got one last year and who is eligible for one next year: https://hoopshype.com/2019/05/23/nba-rookie-scale-extension-list-players-summer-offseason-2019/. It's hard to say what would happen right now, but LAL would try to extend him and there's no way Ingram would sign a 4/$40MM. He'd want way more than that - maybe even what Myles Turner got.

As for his defense, he definitely can play it in spots. After all, remember what he did when he was guarding KI. So he has some ability on that end (although maybe not enough focus).

As for Ball, do you really mean "higher ceiling"? I guess he could have a really high ceiling if he could learn how to shoot but he'd have to completely re-work his mechanics and I don't know if he's shown any willingness to do that. Until that point, I would definitely say that he has a much lower ceiling than Ingram.
I agree the issue with Ingram is intensity not capability---but I think the question there is pretty significant.

On Ball, I do believe there is still a really high ceiling---which is different than saying I think he'll get there. His TS% last year wasn't totally horrible, his 3pt % demonstrates some hope, and he's an elite passer and defender already. if you imagine his shooting ticks up again to 35% from threes (a material step, I acknowledge) and the rest stays in place that's a very, very valuable guy. But I share your concerns on the shooting and I worry that the rest of it (family, health, etc.) will erode the good stuff we've seen outside of the shooting.

I can imagine the case Ingram has the highest ceiling, and that's fair...if he had Marcus Smart's intensity he could be a top-10 player in the league. But there's no evidence he does and I really don't want to bet on guys with questionable drive so to me his ceiling is pretty much gated by his head.
 

tbb345

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Lots of NOP twitter thinks the hold up is that NOP wants Tatum and Brown or Tatum and the Memphis pick.
It seems like if the Celtics want Davis, he's there's.
I don't know how the Lakers can improve their offer. Reading the tea leaves (Rich Paul pressuring the team, not wanting to waste another year of LeBron) the Lakers have emptied their powder and made their best offers already. If the Pelicans were really interested in what the Lakers had to offer I think he would be wearing the Purple and Gold already
 

tbb345

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Anyone working in sports media in New Orleans seems to have sources indicating that the Pelicans like what the Celtics are offering them more than anybody. Anyone outside of NOLA like Marc Stein and others are pushing the Lakers angle. I would tend to believe that the people in NOLA would have better access to Pelicans sources. Put two and two together and I'm leaning more and more towards AD going to Boston.
I'm not sure that Stein's reporting is even worth discussing or mentioning.

It never made any sense on it's face (Lakers are willing to throw in 3 higher valued pieces but REFUSE to put in Kuzma). Also, someone posted earlier in this thread that Ramona Shelburne (who is obviously very plugged in with the Lakers) said on LA radio that the reporting is incorrect and missing things.
 

boca

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If the Celtics land Davis then that's got to influence Kyrie's decision surely?
 

PedroKsBambino

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I have no idea what NOLA prefers or where the trade talks are and I'm pretty sure none of the twitterati or writers do either.

That acknowledged, the "we won't put Kuzma in" angle seems inconceivable to me and I have to think that is posturing for some (hard to discern) purpose.
 

ehaz

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Does the Klay injury combined with seeing Toronto go all-in on Kawhi and win now push another team to be more aggressive going after AD even as a 1 year rental? All of a sudden, the league looks wide open. If not the favorites, Denver or Portland would certainly be very strong contenders adding AD into the mix...
Why not Milwaukee? Couldn’t they negotiate a sign and trade with Middleton? Also Brogdon would be a nice get.
 

lovegtm

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Why not Milwaukee? Couldn’t they negotiate a sign and trade with Middleton? Also Brogdon would be a nice get.
Brogdon and Middleton simply aren’t in Tatum’s league as assets, due to age, upside, and timeline with Zion.

A Siakam package would be fascinating, but I could easily see Griffin still preferring Tatum.
 

DJnVa

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If the Celtics land Davis then that's got to influence Kyrie's decision surely?
It doesn't seem so with the word that came out yesterday.

I would guess that Kyrie and AD have talked and AD has told him that's he's one and done in Boston. We may be able to get him to change his mind, but I've no doubt that's what he's saying.
 

lovegtm

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I have no idea what NOLA prefers or where the trade talks are and I'm pretty sure none of the twitterati or writers do either.

That acknowledged, the "we won't put Kuzma in" angle seems inconceivable to me and I have to think that is posturing for some (hard to discern) purpose.
We can infer, from the fact that AD isn’t a Laker yet, that they’re not super-high on Ball/Ingram/Kuzma/this year’s draft class. Agree that beyond that we really don’t know.
 

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I would offer Brown, Memphis and Time Lord as our best option (along with whatever voodoo cap money we need....BUT NO MORE TALENT). Hell I might even throw in an unprotected 2022 or something.

I think that Trumps LA right now.

Smart (who I would not include if Cap voodoo can in any way be done) is a MUCH better NBA player then Ball. Mix in his crazy ass family and potential unwillingness to play/commit to NO and yea.

I think a Brown and Zion (along with TL as a rim protector) and a future lottery pick is a pretty interesting team.
 

DJnVa

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https://twitter.com/NOLAJake/status/1139262770636083206
"All of this just screams the Pelicans are asking for both Tatum and Brown, the Celtics will not do it. The Pels keep trying, and eventually settle on Tatum, Smart, Williams, 14, and the Memphis pick"


They're acting like the Memphis pick is an easy get. I would be 100% shocked if that's in there with Tatum outside of a commitment from AD, which isn't coming.
 

lovegtm

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https://twitter.com/NOLAJake/status/1139262770636083206
"All of this just screams the Pelicans are asking for both Tatum and Brown, the Celtics will not do it. The Pels keep trying, and eventually settle on Tatum, Smart, Williams, 14, and the Memphis pick"


They're acting like the Memphis pick is an easy get. I would be 100% shocked if that's in there with Tatum outside of a commitment from AD, which isn't coming.
It is a truth universally acknowledged that a fanbase in possession of a departing superstar must be in want of a trade package it will never get.
 

lexrageorge

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https://twitter.com/NOLAJake/status/1139262770636083206
"All of this just screams the Pelicans are asking for both Tatum and Brown, the Celtics will not do it. The Pels keep trying, and eventually settle on Tatum, Smart, Williams, 14, and the Memphis pick"


They're acting like the Memphis pick is an easy get. I would be 100% shocked if that's in there with Tatum outside of a commitment from AD, which isn't coming.
I'm not convinced that NO will even get the bolded given Davis' reluctance to commit to Boston.
 

PedroKsBambino

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We can infer, from the fact that AD isn’t a Laker yet, that they’re not super-high on Ball/Ingram/Kuzma/this year’s draft class. Agree that beyond that we really don’t know.
I think we knew that was the case at the trade deadline. NOLA has since changed management teams (and at some level so have the Lakers) so I don't think we even know that has been offered. Even if it has, NOLA could like it well enough to do a deal and could be seeing if they can do better than that with other teams---not like the Lakers are going to lose interest.

I tend to suspect you're right, just noting that even what we knew in Feb is not necessarily true anymore.
 

BigSoxFan

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I feel like writers always undersell the Celtics’ assets during these discussions.

Group 1
Tatum
Memphis

Group 2
Brown
#14

I would be shocked if New Orleans got more than 1 from each group.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Yeah, what major NBA trade for an established star, much less one on an expiring deal that’s told the world he won’t re-sign, fetched a haul like that?
 

tbb345

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I think we knew that was the case at the trade deadline. NOLA has since changed management teams (and at some level so have the Lakers) so I don't think we even know that has been offered. Even if it has, NOLA could like it well enough to do a deal and could be seeing if they can do better than that with other teams---not like the Lakers are going to lose interest.

I tend to suspect you're right, just noting that even what we knew in Feb is not necessarily true anymore.
I am going to caveat this by saying that none of us really know anything about these conversations and the best we have to go by is the reporting of people that have high credibility.

With that out of the way, I posted something about this earlier but even though both teams have new management, when trades involve superstars of AD's level ownership is heavily involved.

I find it incredibly hard to believe that the Benson family would OK a trade anything less than Kuzma, Ball, Hart, Ingram, 4. The reason being that it would be perceived as less than the offer that was made at the trade deadline (which was already deemed not acceptable then). Combined that with the fact that the Bensons aren't as well organized as your typical NBA team and seem to harbor legitimate resentment against Klutch and LAL and I don't think the Lakers have a prayer of getting AD without offering literally every worthwhile asset they have.
And honestly even then it may not be enough if the Celtics want to pony up
 

tbb345

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I feel like writers always undersell the Celtics’ assets during these discussions.

Group 1
Tatum
Memphis

Group 2
Brown
#14

I would be shocked if New Orleans got more than 1 from each group.
100% agree with this.

If I were a betting man, I would bet that the final package ends up being Tatum, 14, 20, 22, and salary filler. (If Rozier is willing to do a sign and trade there, he gets included and either 20 or 22 gets taken out)
 

BigMike

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It's wise to look at Ingram, Ball, and Kuzma as different kinds of assets.

1. Ingram was basically a bust until this year, but he showed something in the weird point-forward role he was playing wtih Lebron out. So, on-court, he looks like a guy with some upside left but a lot of good stats/bad team projection to him. Not much of a defensive player, may need the ball more than his efficiency merits, etc. Plus, of course, he is near end of his cost-controlled deal and oh yeah---he has a scary, unpredictable medical condition. If he were a FA right now what would he get? Something like MLE money on a one-plus-one right? If his medical stuff checks out then he's perhaps $10 mil a year? Is it clear he's a better player than Randle (2/$18 incl. player option). I think he isn't today, and so you're betting on upside there.

2. Ball is higher floor and higher ceiling. You can still imagine him as a starter on a contender; however, his shooting remains a major gap and he looks a lot more like Ricky Rubio right now than a star. His stats last year shooting-wise are an improvement, but the motion and overall numbers remain worrisome. The family stuff is a non-zero factor and while he certainly still has value teams are going to hvae very different valuations of him---some are going to say the shooting problem makes him a borderline starter and thus not a big asset on his current deal'; others will see Jason Kidd-lite potential and feel it's a great buy-low opportunity especially at his age and the improvement in shooting last year.

3. Kuzma is a useful player for a good team right now, unlike the two guys above. But there's reason to doubt he's ever going to be more htan that, he can't defend and is really just a good shooter with questionable skills beyond that (and worth noting his 3pt shooting last year was actually really bad). While he has a sixth-man level floor I think his chances of being more than the fourth guy on a good team aren't all that great, are they? I guess you can project some physical development that helps the defense and perhaps he becomes a better passer as well, but his value is to a good degree the shooting...and that wasn't really there last year. He's a guy who fits best on a good team, not a NOLA or a team with a lottery pick to deal. Or maybe he's a good stats-bad team guy (which is in fact what he was last year).
OK, So Ingram 2nd season not this year, was a Bust. Lets compare 20 year old seasons)

Ingram 16.1 pts, 5.3 re, 3.7 assists (47% 2, 39% 3) (0.7 blk, 0.8 st, 2.8 TO)
Tatum 15.7 pts, , 6 Reb, 2.1 assist (45% 2, 27% 3) (1.1 stl , 0.7 blk 1.5 TO)

So in their 20 year old season. Tatum and Ingram had shockingly similar numbers, Tatum a bit better on the boards, Ingram being a more aggressive passer

And they are only 6 months apart in age.

I'm not saying Ingram is better. I just have a very hard time calling Ingram a bust for year 2, while Tatum year 2 indicates some star player. Obviously the team dynamics were different, but that is a double edged sword (much easier to play with good teammates). Obviously the medical condition downgrades Ingram some, but I don't be the least bit surprised if he has 7 years during his career where he averages 20+ pts, 5+ reb, and 3.5+ assists. Honestly I think if he were a FA this summer with the money out in the market someone would make a huge investment in him, assuming the medicals check out

Also not sure why Kuzma would be a useful player for a good team and Ingram wouldn't
 

lovegtm

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OK, So Ingram 2nd season not this year, was a Bust. Lets compare 20 year old seasons)

Ingram 16.1 pts, 5.3 re, 3.7 assists (47% 2, 39% 3) (0.7 blk, 0.8 st, 2.8 TO)
Tatum 15.7 pts, , 6 Reb, 2.1 assist (45% 2, 27% 3) (1.1 stl , 0.7 blk 1.5 TO)

So in their 20 year old season. Tatum and Ingram had shockingly similar numbers, Tatum a bit better on the boards, Ingram being a more aggressive passer

And they are only 6 months apart in age.

I'm not saying Ingram is better. I just have a very hard time calling Ingram a bust for year 2, while Tatum year 2 indicates some star player. Obviously the team dynamics were different, but that is a double edged sword (much easier to play with good teammates). Obviously the medical condition downgrades Ingram some, but I don't be the least bit surprised if he has 7 years during his career where he averages 20+ pts, 5+ reb, and 3.5+ assists. Honestly I think if he were a FA this summer with the money out in the market someone would make a huge investment in him, assuming the medicals check out

Also not sure why Kuzma would be a useful player for a good team and Ingram wouldn't
If you don’t understand why you can’t use rate stats to evaluate players, especially young ones, your input may not have as much value as you assume.

Put another, nicer way: NBA GMs currently treat Tatum as several tiers more valuable than Ingram. What do you know that they don’t?
 

BigMike

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I feel like writers always undersell the Celtics’ assets during these discussions.

Group 1
Tatum
Memphis

Group 2
Brown
#14

I would be shocked if New Orleans got more than 1 from each group.
I think you oversell the Memphis pick . To me the value is somewhere below the #3 pick this year. Yes there is a10% chance it is the #1 pick in 2021, but around 60% chance it is not a top 5 pick. the pick is certainly more valuable than #14 this year, but nowhere close to Tatum value
 

PedroKsBambino

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OK, So Ingram 2nd season not this year, was a Bust. Lets compare 20 year old seasons)

Ingram 16.1 pts, 5.3 re, 3.7 assists (47% 2, 39% 3) (0.7 blk, 0.8 st, 2.8 TO)
Tatum 15.7 pts, , 6 Reb, 2.1 assist (45% 2, 27% 3) (1.1 stl , 0.7 blk 1.5 TO)

So in their 20 year old season. Tatum and Ingram had shockingly similar numbers, Tatum a bit better on the boards, Ingram being a more aggressive passer

And they are only 6 months apart in age.

I'm not saying Ingram is better. I just have a very hard time calling Ingram a bust for year 2, while Tatum year 2 indicates some star player. Obviously the team dynamics were different, but that is a double edged sword (much easier to play with good teammates). Obviously the medical condition downgrades Ingram some, but I don't be the least bit surprised if he has 7 years during his career where he averages 20+ pts, 5+ reb, and 3.5+ assists. Honestly I think if he were a FA this summer with the money out in the market someone would make a huge investment in him, assuming the medicals check out

Also not sure why Kuzma would be a useful player for a good team and Ingram wouldn't
Serious question: did you watch many Lakers games? I ask that because this is a case where the box scores are not really the whole story...and let's face it, no one in the NBA is looking at those few box score stats and making decisions.

If you look at RPM, which is certainly imperfect but is a lot closer to how the NBA values guys than the above, Ingram was -1.77 last year. That's next to guys like De'Andre Bembry, Miles Bridges, Trevor Ariza who are minimum guys. Tatum is at 1.42, which is just ahead of Luka Doncic (which, of course, is preposterous).

One of the reasons for that is Tatum is a decent defensive player and Ingram is not, which matters a lot. Another is that Tatum more or less operates wtihin a team construct and Ingram largely has not. That is also why Ingram and Kuzma are pretty different.

You could be right, but I supect that the NBA decision makers see it pretty differently than the quick box-score look and all the rumors in February (and still today, though Ingram had perhaps his best stretch of his career before his illness hit) seem to align with that as well.
 

BigMike

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If you don’t understand why you can’t use rate stats to evaluate players, especially young ones, your input may not have as much value as you assume.

Put another, nicer way: NBA GMs currently treat Tatum as several tiers more valuable than Ingram. What do you know that they don’t?

Nice
I'd love to be educated p!ease show me the advanced stat metric that shows Ingram was a bust in the 17/18 season when compared against other 20 year olds
 

BigSoxFan

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I think you oversell the Memphis pick . To me the value is somewhere below the #3 pick this year. Yes there is a10% chance it is the #1 pick in 2021, but around 60% chance it is not a top 5 pick. the pick is certainly more valuable than #14 this year, but nowhere close to Tatum value
Memphis definitely doesn’t equal Tatum and i wasn’t trying to suggest that but I think it’s definitely a Tier 1 asset for a rebuilding team. The supply of minimally protected picks of expected bad teams is incredibly small.
 

nighthob

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We can infer, from the fact that AD isn’t a Laker yet, that they’re not super-high on Ball/Ingram/Kuzma/this year’s draft class. Agree that beyond that we really don’t know.
I think Devizier had it right, the Lakers are going to have to include a Billy King like pick package in the post-LeBron range (say two picks and two swap rights in the 23-26 timeframe) in order to seal the deal. And I suspect that Klutch is pressuring them to do just that.
 

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100% agree with this.

If I were a betting man, I would bet that the final package ends up being Tatum, 14, 20, 22, and salary filler. (If Rozier is willing to do a sign and trade there, he gets included and either 20 or 22 gets taken out)
I thought Smart had to be included to make the money work. Is there any way that Tatum + "salary filler" can not include Smart?

It seems to me that if you could go to Kyrie after such a trade and say "here's what 2019-2020 looks like if you re-sign: You, Brown, Hayward, Horford, Davis, with Smart coming off the bench." Seems like as strong a first 6 as any team will be putting out there, especially considering Durant's and Thompson's injury statuses.
 

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The national media is favoring the Lakers angle because they have been pushing the Lakers story since LeBron got there. They're wish casting for the story. That's always a part of their "reporting."
 

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I feel like writers always undersell the Celtics’ assets during these discussions.

Group 1
Tatum
Memphis

Group 2
Brown
#14

I would be shocked if New Orleans got more than 1 from each group.
I agree with the overall thought that it is either Tatum or Brown but not both. However it is also not a Chinese menu choice. First of all, salaries have to match as previously pointed out by many. If Smart has to be included because a sign and trade doesn't work, then that significantly changes the calculus. In addition, your menu option equates Memphis +14 with Tatum and Brown, and that is very far off from the actual value of those 2 groups.
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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100% agree with this.

If I were a betting man, I would bet that the final package ends up being Tatum, 14, 20, 22, and salary filler. (If Rozier is willing to do a sign and trade there, he gets included and either 20 or 22 gets taken out)
If Rozier agrees to a S&T, I have to think it's as part of a three-team deal. Rozier wants to start, and he'll be behind Jrue there. Whatever we get in a 3-team for Rozier will just be salary filler (an expiring), so I don't think including Rozier allows us to take out any picks.
 

cheech13

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Jan 5, 2006
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If you're going to call the Memphis pick a tier one asset then you better include LA's #4 pick in that group as well. Maybe it's a down year for the draft, but the certainty of knowing when and what you'll get makes it more valuable than a future pick. Just look at the Brooklyn or Sacramento picks for an example of how counting on a team to be very bad can go wrong.
 

bakahump

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Jan 8, 2001
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@BigMike

Are you not underselling the Medicals? You did say "if they check out" so you did acknowledge them.

But you also said
but I don't be the least bit surprised if he has 7 years during his career where he averages...
Those Clots could easily cost him 1-7, or yes, none of those years. Thats a pretty significant risk. So you might also not be the least bit surprised if he never reaches that production.

So assuming that based on the Stats you mentioned (which smarter people then I have taken offense to) you still have the possibility of a significant impact on Ingrams career due to these injuries.

While Tatum at this point looks like a solid Lock for the production you mention.

Now is Ball/Kuzma and #4 a great enough upgrade over the guys the Celts offer included with Tatum to offset those concerns?
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
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OK, So Ingram 2nd season not this year, was a Bust. Lets compare 20 year old seasons)

Ingram 16.1 pts, 5.3 re, 3.7 assists (47% 2, 39% 3) (0.7 blk, 0.8 st, 2.8 TO)
Tatum 15.7 pts, , 6 Reb, 2.1 assist (45% 2, 27% 3) (1.1 stl , 0.7 blk 1.5 TO)
They really didn’t. You’ve shaved Tatum’s 3FG% by a third, he shot .373 last year at volume while facing defensive pressure on a playoff team. Ingram, by contrast, shot .390 from three on 105 attempts. Which is sort of the definition of small sample size. He did have a higher assist% than Tatum, but even his biggest detractors admit that he has some utility as a point forward. Albeit not a very good one as his scoring efficiency doesn’t merit his usage rate.

But, for sure, if you squint hard you can see some potential there. He’d probably have more utility to a team like Cleveland than New Orleans, though. Maybe there’s a package out there that makes Ingram for #5 make sense for the Cavs?
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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Sep 11, 2008
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Would anyone prefer to send Hayward over Smart as the salary match? (Assuming that neither a S&T, nor the machinations we've discussed way upthread - requiring us to sign our picks and wait 30 days - are feasible).

My thoughts: Smart loves Boston, he's a great fit on a star-laden team with AD and (assuming for a second he stays) Kyrie, Kyrie loves him, and if it blows up and Kyrie / AD leave, you still have Smart/Brown to build around instead of Hayward (whose timeline isn't aligned with a rebuild). A Kyrie / Smart / Jaylen / Horford / AD lineup could be deadly, and Smart, Jaylen and Horford are all the kinds of players who don't need the ball in their hands to contribute, making them good fits with Kyrie and AD.

On the other hand, it leaves us with only Brown / Semi at the wing next year, with only Morris's rights and the t-MLE to find depth. Also, the optics of shipping out Hayward might be icky. I'd love some takes on this.
 

tbb345

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Apr 23, 2010
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I thought Smart had to be included to make the money work. Is there any way that Tatum + "salary filler" can not include Smart?

It seems to me that if you could go to Kyrie after such a trade and say "here's what 2019-2020 looks like if you re-sign: You, Brown, Hayward, Horford, Davis, with Smart coming off the bench." Seems like as strong a first 6 as any team will be putting out there, especially considering Durant's and Thompson's injury statuses.
Apparently Ainge told Baynes there was no guarantee he’d be back here before he opted in. That’s $5.8 mil right there. I believe they could potentially do some sort of bloated one year contract with Daniel Theis to make up the remaining amount?
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
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I thought Smart had to be included to make the money work. Is there any way that Tatum + "salary filler" can not include Smart?
If Irving is 100% gone, I suppose Boston could try to convince him to leave via sign & trade, that would make the necessary filler. But given the relationship between his new agents and the Nets I expect the boat’s sailed on that. The other option is Horford (and as he won’t want to be here Browexit it might be a logical choice) and including Houston as the Rockets want to find a better fit for Harden/Paul.

That theoretically leaves New Orleans with Tatum/Capela for Davis and gives Boston the ability to rebuild after Davis leaves.
 

BigMike

Dope
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Sep 26, 2000
22,165
@BigMike

Are you not underselling the Medicals? You did say "if they check out" so you did acknowledge them.

But you also said

Those Clots could easily cost him 1-7, or yes, none of those years. Thats a pretty significant risk. So you might also not be the least bit surprised if he never reaches that production.

So assuming that based on the Stats you mentioned (which smarter people then I have taken offense to) you still have the possibility of a significant impact on Ingrams career due to these injuries.

While Tatum at this point looks like a solid Lock for the production you mention.

Now is Ball/Kuzma and #4 a great enough upgrade over the guys the Celts offer included with Tatum to offset those concerns?
if my post was implied to mean I think they have equal value. They don't and in no way did I mean to imply that. I responded to a lost that said prior to his his 3rd year Ingram was basically a bust, and made the argument that comparing Tatum and Ingram production the it second year, especially given how young Ingram was, I think calling him a bust in year 2 is odd.

and maybe I'm wrong by given his age and potential and given there are more teams with a lot of money to spend this off-season than p layers worth investing in, I do believe someone would give him More than the male if he were a free agent

and yes if the medical end his career early then he will never hit what I believe his peak numbers can be
 
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BigMike

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Sep 26, 2000
22,165
If you're going to call the Memphis pick a tier one asset then you better include LA's #4 pick in that group as well. Maybe it's a down year for the draft, but the certainty of knowing when and what you'll get makes it more valuable than a future pick. Just look at the Brooklyn or Sacramento picks for an example of how counting on a team to be very bad can go wrong.
True my 10% #1 and 50% outside top 5 was built on a model using Memphis 80% chance of pick not conveying this yeat, and then 80% chance of them being bottom 3 the next
 

InstaFace

MDLzera
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Sep 27, 2016
15,012
Pittsburgh, PA
I thought Smart had to be included to make the money work. Is there any way that Tatum + "salary filler" can not include Smart?

It seems to me that if you could go to Kyrie after such a trade and say "here's what 2019-2020 looks like if you re-sign: You, Brown, Hayward, Horford, Davis, with Smart coming off the bench." Seems like as strong a first 6 as any team will be putting out there, especially considering Durant's and Thompson's injury statuses.
As someone said a few pages ago, Danny could probably come up with ten ways to do so that don't include Marcus Smart. Starting with an S&T of Rozier and/or Morris. There was an extended discussion of the value that either of them would bring to that roster, even at prices slightly above their market rates.

The real question is over how much value is going to NO. Once you're agreed on that, making the money work is a mechanical problem with lots of solutions, for which Danny is among the better people in creative solutions.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
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Here's an interesting article: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2840879-the-anthony-davis-trade-that-would-terrify-the-nba/

The article talks about a theoretical DEN trade. That's not why I'm posting it. It has some interesting numbers re: AD's ability to score without assistance.

Davis is an offensive wrecking ball who needs more help than many in the NBA recognize or acknowledge. He received assists on 61.8 percent of his two-point shots in 2018-19 and 100 percent of his three-point shots, converting just 34.7 percent of unassisted shots.
In 2017-18 (42 of 75 games with Cousins), inarguably Davis' most successful season, he was assisted on 70.1 percent of his two-point field goals, converting just 29.9 percent of those shots when unassisted.

More in the article.