https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/560218623114248192
"Red Sox acquire Robbie Ross for Anthony Ranaudo" -- @bradfo
"Red Sox acquire Robbie Ross for Anthony Ranaudo" -- @bradfo
Anthony Ranaudo dealt to Texas for LHP Robbie Ross
- Thread starter Laser Show
- Start date
Ross is coming off a really down year, but was a solid bullpen arm in 2012-2013. Hopefully he regains form.
https://twitter.com/TimBritton/status/560218646207668224
"Ross had two nice seasons as a reliever before struggling mightily as a starter last season for the Rangers." - @TimBritton
"Ross had two nice seasons as a reliever before struggling mightily as a starter last season for the Rangers." - @TimBritton
That's all you could get for Ranaudo? You should've been able to get more for him, and if not then keep at Pawtucket for depth.
Ross and Breslow seem interchangeable and you already have Breslow. And you still have Britton too if Breslow fails. I don't get it.
Ross and Breslow seem interchangeable and you already have Breslow. And you still have Britton too if Breslow fails. I don't get it.
Ross was 5th in the majors (min 60 IP) with a 62.4% GB% in 2012.
This number plummeted to 45.4% in 2013 and rebounded slightly to 53.5% in 2014.
This number plummeted to 45.4% in 2013 and rebounded slightly to 53.5% in 2014.
Ross:
Basic description of 2014 pitches compared to other LHP:
His fourseam fastball has heavy sinking action, is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has less armside movement than typical and has essentially average velo. His slider is much harder than usual and has less than expected depth. His sinker is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sinkers, has slightly above average velo and has some natural sinking action. His curve has little depth and has primarily 12-6 movement. His change generates a high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' changeups, is much firmer than usual, results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' changeups and has some natural sink to it.
Basic description of 2014 pitches compared to other LHP:
His fourseam fastball has heavy sinking action, is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers, has less armside movement than typical and has essentially average velo. His slider is much harder than usual and has less than expected depth. His sinker is a real worm killer that generates an extreme number of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sinkers, has slightly above average velo and has some natural sinking action. His curve has little depth and has primarily 12-6 movement. His change generates a high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers' changeups, is much firmer than usual, results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' changeups and has some natural sink to it.
vadertime said:
By Breslow you mean Craig Breslow? The guy who was awful last season and got by with smoke and mirrors in 2013? Also, nothing I've seen from Anthony Ranaudo indicates he'll ever be anything other than an adequate bottom of the rotation pitcher. A flat fastball with inconsistent command can only get one so far. I see this as trading for a guy with a similar upside who has had some success as a reliever in the past, so at worst it's a lateral move to me.
Ross wasn't quite as bad last year as his ERA indicates (awful BABIP and strand rate) and both his fastball and slider ticked down 2 MPH after moving from the bullpen to the rotation. As long as he checks out medically, I see no reason why he can't resume being a fastball pumping ground ball machine LHP out of the pen producing slightly above average results, which is more than Ranaudo is likely to turn into.
He's a two pitch guy who lives up in the zone. His upside is back end starter or decent reliever if his stuff plays up in the pen. Even with Webster and RDLR out the door he was still behind at least Owens, Rodriguez and Barnes, and probably Johnson too.vadertime said:
TomRicardo said:
Tim Britton @TimBritton 3m3 minutes ago
Ross, like Drake Britton, is out of options. Only see one of them in the Opening Day bullpen.
Corsi said:
I think Britton's got it wrong. Ross was added to the Ranger 40-man roster Opening Day 2012, and spent zero days in the minors in 2012 or 2013. He should have at least two options left.
Edit: Ranger Rundown shows 2 options left.
I don't think Ranaudo was all that valuable, but trading him for another LH makes you (or me, anyways) think another shoe is dropping soon.
Corsi said:
Robbie Ross used an option 2014. I don't see where he used his other two options. He didn't play in the minors 2012 or 2013.
bosockboy said:
Probably Workman as the long man right? I doubt they carry three lefties so I guess that's it for Tommy Layne.
Ross career OPS v lefties: .771RIrooter09 said:
Breslow career OPS v lefties: .671
Layne career OPS v lefties: .487
Edit: Breslow is historically pretty R/L neutral. OPS of .680 v righties. His handedness doesn't particularly matter. You keep him if he is one of your six best RPs. Layne is the guy you keep if you want a specialist against LHH.
Whatever team with a top end overpriced starter will be in the selling position come end of July, I really doubt they would want Ross over AR.
AR is 25 too. Isn't there an unwritten rule of thumb you don't trade a starter for a non-lights-out reliever. Especially when you don't have an ace.
I'm not upset over it, but don't really see the potential of the trade.
AR is 25 too. Isn't there an unwritten rule of thumb you don't trade a starter for a non-lights-out reliever. Especially when you don't have an ace.
I'm not upset over it, but don't really see the potential of the trade.
Ranaudo would probably be no better than the third choice (behind Workman and Wright) to join the rotation in case of injury - and that's in a scenario in which the team still doesn't add another starter. And I think a lot of people are at the point of expecting one of the Owens/Johnson/Rodriguez group to pass him on the depth chart before the season is through. This doesn't really touch their depth at this point, and while surplus value is nice, they need some of that theoretical value to translate into actual on-field results at a certain point. Ross makes more sense for the roster as currently constructed.
If the argument is that Ranaudo should have had more trade value, I think if they could have moved him in, say, a Hamels package (just using Hamels as an example! I don't mean to turn this into yet another discussion of the relative merits of such a trade!) they would have, but it's not like Ranaudo would have been a centerpiece of such a deal, and I doubt the exclusion of Ranaudo specifically would have been a dealbreaker for a GM - ie, they could replace him with Barnes or Escobar in a trade package.
If the argument is that Ranaudo should have had more trade value, I think if they could have moved him in, say, a Hamels package (just using Hamels as an example! I don't mean to turn this into yet another discussion of the relative merits of such a trade!) they would have, but it's not like Ranaudo would have been a centerpiece of such a deal, and I doubt the exclusion of Ranaudo specifically would have been a dealbreaker for a GM - ie, they could replace him with Barnes or Escobar in a trade package.
Dan to Theo to Ben said:
And that's where I'm coming from. Even if you view AR as a #4, 6 years of cost controlled young starter should get you more than a reliever coming off a bad season (even if it was as a starter).
Jnai said:
Another groundball specialist: Pedroia and Bogaerts will get plenty of action.
Jed Zeppelin said:
Yes, Ranaudo looks like a low-ceiling starter who can't miss bats or keep the ball down. His HR rates in Arlington could be outrageously high, so I'm surprised that the Rangers are the team that took a flyer on Anthony.
Escobar might rank ahead of Ranaudo too -- the Red Sox starting depth still looks strong.
snowmanny said:
Ross' stuff didn't play up well the third time through the order. Both Layne and Britton could be in trouble.
Getting a still-young left hander with a track record of major league success for Ranaudo is an excellent use of a resource that might be at peak value. In addition to his apparently low ceiling, Ranaudo has also showed a lot of difficulty staying healthy. And, he's already had TJ once, in college. I love the trade.
He had decent success out of the pen throwing mostly his four-seam fastball with an occasional slider mixed in. (This is taking pitchFX's pitch recognition as correct, which isn't always safe.) Toward the end of 2013, and as a starter in 2014, he went away from his 4-seam and mixed in a 2-seam, more, and in 2014 also experimented a little with a curve and a couple other pitches.
His results in 2014 were much worse than 2013. His 2014 strike zone map shows pretty much all his major pitches as worse than average (red):
But in 2013, especially to RHB, he was pretty decent, and even to LHB his slider (though not heavily used) had decent results, though his fastball, not so much:
Animations of all his fastballs and sliders from 2013, when they were reasonably effective:
2013, 4-seam fastball:
Slider, 2013:
The same pitches as a starter in 2014, when they weren't so effective:
4-seam, 2014 - average velocity down a couple ticks, and a little lower in the zone (right down the center, actually):
Slider, 2014 - also down a couple MPH, and the average location is also lower, closer to the bottom of the zone:
If going back to the pen bumps his velocity up a little and lets him avoid that third trip through the lineup, he seems like a decent addition to the pen.
His results in 2014 were much worse than 2013. His 2014 strike zone map shows pretty much all his major pitches as worse than average (red):
But in 2013, especially to RHB, he was pretty decent, and even to LHB his slider (though not heavily used) had decent results, though his fastball, not so much:
Animations of all his fastballs and sliders from 2013, when they were reasonably effective:
2013, 4-seam fastball:
The same pitches as a starter in 2014, when they weren't so effective:
4-seam, 2014 - average velocity down a couple ticks, and a little lower in the zone (right down the center, actually):
Slider, 2014 - also down a couple MPH, and the average location is also lower, closer to the bottom of the zone:
If going back to the pen bumps his velocity up a little and lets him avoid that third trip through the lineup, he seems like a decent addition to the pen.
Occam's razor: the Sox brain trust, along with scouts from other teams, have concluded that AR isn't likely to develop into that starter you're referring to.Dan to Theo to Ben said:
No, but if any other teams out there thought AR was going to be much better, Ben presumably could have acquired more talent for him.Dan to Theo to Ben said:
Britton now reporting that Ross does have options. That makes him more valuable. http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20150127-red-sox-acquire-robbie-ross-for-anthony-ranaudo.ece
Since most good relievers are failed starters, I would have liked to see the Sox try him in the pen but not a huge deal. Unless, of course, he becomes a shutdown reliever. . . .
Hey Ross spent like 2 or 3 weeks on my fantasy team last year, he must be awesome!
Even the strongest AR supporters peg his ceiling at what, a #4 starter? He wouldn't make any major impact for at least another 1-3 years. The pen needs help this year, and the RS got an above average addition under the team's control for a few years. You can find #4 starters via FA. And now everyone screams "cost controlled starter!!!!!!" but its not like it would cost a ton for that kind of pitcher
Even the strongest AR supporters peg his ceiling at what, a #4 starter? He wouldn't make any major impact for at least another 1-3 years. The pen needs help this year, and the RS got an above average addition under the team's control for a few years. You can find #4 starters via FA. And now everyone screams "cost controlled starter!!!!!!" but its not like it would cost a ton for that kind of pitcher
Not that I am a prospect expert, but if you asked me after last season which pitching prospects I had the least faith in being useful down the line, my top 3 would be RDLR, Webster, and Ranaudo (perhaps I'm too biased by uninspiring early MLB results…. I admit the others could struggle too)
But overall, Miley and Ross seem like a pretty good use of those resources. That glut had to be trimmed somehow, and I like keeping Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, Johnson, and Workman out of that initial group. Still plenty of depth.
But overall, Miley and Ross seem like a pretty good use of those resources. That glut had to be trimmed somehow, and I like keeping Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, Johnson, and Workman out of that initial group. Still plenty of depth.
Perfect --- 3rd different Ross on the team in last 5 years. I can still wear my Cody Ross jersey, and just change the number again.
value, with any asset, is determined in the actual marketplace, with actual completed transactions, not with presumptions.P'tucket said:
We only know 3 things:
1) Red Sox at this time value Ross more than Ranaudo
2) Rangers at this time value Ranaudo more than Ross
3) Ben has a fetish for gb pitchers.
I generally get nervous when Ben trades prospects for relievers. Hasn't had the best track record in these kind of deals. Ross has a GB rate that fits in and I guess that's the new requirement in Boston.
The fact that Ross has options essentially makes him Breslow insurance. We still haven't come up with a Layne upgrade. Of course it's possible the Sox decide they don't need to go into the season with a reliever who can shut down LHH--which seems plausible because the AL East is not exactly deep in dominant LHH at the moment.
Right. But I'm not the one who assumed we traded a "starter" for a "non-lights-out reliever," with the implication being it wasn't such a great idea. Renaudo fetched a good deal less than one might expect for a "starter," which led me to suggest that he's not viewed as such by the Sox or any other team. As you say, the market is the market.Dan to Theo to Ben said:
Good to have a GB reliever, no matter the handness. Need to get those DP opportunities at critical points with men on.
I think both teams did ok in this trade. The way it's supposed to happen.
I think both teams did ok in this trade. The way it's supposed to happen.
Dan to Theo to Ben said:
I think it's fairly simple. Cherington took a 25-year-old RH pitcher with a low ceiling as a starter (and no useful data as a reliever), limited MLB experience, and two options remaining, and flipped him for a 25-year-old LH pitcher with a low ceiling as a starter, 2+ years of MLB experience as a reasonably effective reliever, and two options remaining. Basically he took a redundant resource and turned it into a slightly different but, given the state of the roster, more useful resource.
I think this take is dead on correct.Red(s)HawksFan said:
That said, I also think that because we tend to overrate our own prospects, that the loss of Ranaudo -- who at one point was touted as a future star -- will sting for some. And with Texas apparently giving him a real shot at being in the rotation, he will at least have the chance to make us wish that he was starting over a seemingly inevitably injured Buck or Masterson. Not that Ranaudo was necessarily next up in the depth chart, but perceptions are what they are.
Again, I think your analysis is on the money.
On first take, I'm not a big fan of this move. I think Ben may have sold on the cheap side. But, the team does have an excess of young starting pitching .......the majority of this is left-handed while most of the current major league starters are righties , so AR does not offer something the team does not already have. They do need to build the bullpen, so this guy may be the missing piece on paper in January. I'm really too busy studying PSI and atmospheric variability to deep dive into this item anyway. Really a rounding error in the grand scheme of things --- until AR wins the CYA of course.
Robbie Ross is a good bullpen piece that was overexposed as a starter. I'm not really optimistic that Ranaudo will ever be anything more than a spot-starter, 5th SP type, so its pretty fortuitous that they dealt him while he still had value. He's gonna get lit up in Arlington without a significant change to his command/arsenal.
Another factor may have been a desire to thin a crowded Pawtucket starting rotation. Even with Anthony gone, Sox Prospects projects a AAA rotation of Matt Barnes, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Eduardo Rodriquez, and Edwin Escobar. And that assumes Workman in the Boston pen and Wright in the Pawtucket pen. I'm not sure the Sox are giving up on either of those guys as starters just yet.
I agree with RHFan. I don't think the Sox saw Ranaudo as likely to begin the season in, or be especially useful later in, the MLB bullpen. They likely don't see him as a better starting option than the 5 currently slated to start for Pawtucket. So they dealt him for a more useful, more established LH pitcher.
And there's this:
Seems like Ben found the one team in MLB with the highest regard for Renaudo. Ross is probably the max value he's worth, and given some of the above analysis, the Sox did quite well.
http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/12239101/boston-red-sox-send-anthony-ranaudo-texas-rangers-robbie-ross
Seems like Ben found the one team in MLB with the highest regard for Renaudo. Ross is probably the max value he's worth, and given some of the above analysis, the Sox did quite well.