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Anthony Ranaudo
- Thread starter jippaman
- Start date
I think it's chicken shit that he left the Cape. I understand he's playing for a contract and wants simply to prove healthy and able to pitch, but really, he should be out there throwing. I could make the opposite argument much more easily, as it's clear that he's show the Sox enough to pay him; but my gut says, "get out there and do your job", whatever that means.
Meh, the Sox had to figure this was going to be the case. They should be used to Boras by now. If he gets injured in the Cape league even by a fluke he could screw up his senior season and his bonus. So far, he's been able to go out and pitch and I basically agree with Boras. Now the Sox have to decide how much they want to pay to take on his risk/reward potential, and he has to decide how much he wants to gamble both on his health and the chance that his senior season looks too much like his junior for whatever reason.
There are good reasons on both sides for him to sign.
There are good reasons on both sides for him to sign.
With Boras, it's all part of a game strategy - Papa Angelo chiming in from his motor home, Sonny leaving the Cape early to go back to pick out his apartment for the Fall semester, a desire to lead LSU to a national championship, disinformation everywhere. It's negotiating Jiu Jitsu.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but no one picks out their apartment for Fall semester in July. You have that place lined up before you leave the spring prior.
By pitching 30 innings in their back yard he already did the Sox a huge favor. He could have been been down playing in the oil spill or fist pumping on a Jersey boardwalk if he wanted. He's healthy, he dominated. It's time for Henry to pay him.
I'm not sure what this even means - Is he employed by the Sox? Who is he working for?
The answer is "No", and "Himself". Like Sox Scout said - he's proven he's dominant and healthy. He has nothing more to prove, and has no real reason to put himself at risk for a fluke injury. If the Sox don't think he is that kind of pitcher after that performance, they don't have to pay him big money.
Second. The other people who are happy he left are the Boston Red Sox. You do actually want to draft and sign a guy who's going to help you win. Having him do any more than prove he can be that guy is putting him at risk, and the organization too. Get him out of there, keep him healthy, sign him, and then get him into your program to keep him healthy.
I agree with you completely. As I said above, I could argue the opposite point, namely that he should pitch only enough to prove healthy and effective, more easily than the opposite. I think the problem I'm having is that I don't have millions of dollars on the line and am thinking about this in terms of going out and playing because that's what I'd love to do. I view it as a "job" because if I were attempting to play pro ball for a large sum of money, I'd view it exactly like that - a job. So yeah, he should probably just pack it in and go home, await the offer, and see what happens.
So did you do the same when you were a potential first round pick after your Junior year?
I know people who have lined up apartments months in advance and others who have done it mere weeks in advance. The latter end up with the crappy apartments, but nonetheless it's not implausable.
when you don't know if you are going back to school because you were just taken in the MLB draft and are hoping to sign an over slot contract you don't get yoru apartment in the spring
When you're hoping for an overslot bonus you aren't going to sign until the deadline anyways. IMO nothing has changed and this is just another way to make everyone think he is for real about going to college (which I don't think he is).
This is a case where his agent being Boras is informative. If he had another agent, I think most of us would be far more likely to read his going apartment shopping as a sign he is returning to college. With Boras as his agent, we will tend to look at this as a negotiating ploy. The most logical explanation might be that it is a little bit of both.
What is it going to take to sign Anthony? Are we talking $2 million bonus or somewhere in the range of $4-$5?
Someone guessed $2.5M to $3M, pretty sure it was Callis in a chat or on Twitter.
It would be a surprise, but he still doesn't have as much leverage as some people think. Yes, he looked great in the CCL. But, his elbow concerns (remember this is a recurring issue), as well as the fact that he'll be a senior next year in a loaded 2011 draft class -- especially college pitching-wise, don't give him a ton of negotiating leverage. I don't care who his agent is, this will be his best opportunity to cash in.
In the end, I don't really care what he signs for as long as he signs. We're talking about a guy that was the consensus #2 pick behind Coverboy coming into the spring season, that the Sox pegged in the supplemental round. You don't get an opportunity like that very often.
In the end, I don't really care what he signs for as long as he signs. We're talking about a guy that was the consensus #2 pick behind Coverboy coming into the spring season, that the Sox pegged in the supplemental round. You don't get an opportunity like that very often.
This is exactly how I feel.
Ranaudo was the best pitcher in the draft. The Sox system is pretty.... well, not bad, but it's not full of top-flight power-pitching prospects. I think Ranaudo immediately becomes a top 10 prospect in the system and that's hard to turn down. If his elbow issues don't continue, he's likely on the fast-track to the majors. I would be incredibly disappointed if the Sox didn't sign him.
The cost of Ranaudo will be a pittance when you look at how much money the team gives to someone like Wakefield because he allegedly provides good value for league average performance, etc. and then compare the potential upside. Sometimes these prospects will be busts, but such expenditures are unlikely to cripple the franchise, especially since these bona fide bonus babies may fall to the Sox only once every few years. Just don't give him a ML contract and a roster spot like the Yankees did for Brackman (Boras isn't demanding this for Ranaudo, is he?)
What is his projected path should he sign? High A then to AA in his first season, and AA to AAA in his second season?
What is his projected path should he sign? High A then to AA in his first season, and AA to AAA in his second season?
Interesting that Ranaudo could have set the Cape Cod League record for ERA if he three 5 2/3 more innings. Not saying he should have, but it's one of the best known summer leagues and maybe it would have been nice to get his name in the books with one more dominant start. Sure, in the long run it means nothing, but these are small things that as a player, I know I'd want a shot at if given the chance.
I think he starts out at Salem then to Portland as you say. Then, I think if he is dominating there he comes straight to the majors if needed.
[font="Arial][quote]According to multiple industry sources, the Red Sox and supplemental first-round draftee [b]Anthony Ranaudo[/b] have yet to begin contract negotiations.[/quote][/font]
[url="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2010/07/27/sources-sox-ranaudo-have-yet-to-start-talks/"]WEEI[/url]
[url="http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2010/07/27/sources-sox-ranaudo-have-yet-to-start-talks/"]WEEI[/url]
Amiel Sawdaye on pregame tonight said that they were camped out on the Cape for Ranaudo's starts and are, "excited to spend some time negotiating with him in the next few weeks and hopefully get him in a Red Sox uniform."
also:
also:
I still think he ends up signing. Boras and the Sox have a history and it just makes too much sense.
Kendall said the same thing back to me in an e-mail. I think he ultimately signs, but it will be at the last minute.
If that's true, it's bye bye Renaudo. He shouldn't even be signing for $3MM, let alone have an offer that's $3MM above what the Sox are offering, which itself is likely above slot.
I don't know. It sounds like standard operating procedure for a tough sign Boras client. At this time last year the Nats and Strasburg were probably 20 million apart. Boras is going to do his best to give the impression that if we don't meet a crazy asking price then Ranaudo is going back to school. The Red Sox are going to do their best to sign him at a reasonable number. The Sox will make their best offer 5 minutes before the deadline and Boras/Ranaudo will probably accept.
If the Sox are offering Top 10 money, Renaudo would be a fool not to sign in light of the fact that he will be a senior next year (with commensurately lower leverage) and b/c next year's draft class is so much stronger than this year's. He may not even be a Top 10 pick next year even if he remains perfectly healthy.
Agreed, but they're still going to wait until minutes before the deadline to sign to make sure they have the Sox best offer.
Their offers could easily be $3 million apart while their price points overlap. Say the Red Sox, knowing they are negotiating with Boras, lowballed their initial offer and came in at $1.5 million or $2 million and will go as high as $3 million. Ranaudo will sign for $2.5 million but, obviously, wants more. So, they counter at $4.5 or $5 million, probably with an MLB contract. They then negotiate for a while, and when all is said and done, Ranaudo signs for $2.8 million without the MLB contract. Or, something like that. It is very probably that they are just starting the financial discussions now given that Ranaudo is a Boras client and Boras doesn't like to negotiate without the pressure of being up against a deadline.
I had the following brief QnA with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus in the comments section of one of his recent articles:
Me: Kevin, do you think Ranaudo signs with Boston?
Kevin Goldstein: I actually think that one has been done (but not allowed to be announced) for a bit.
If so that's very good news indeed.
Me: Kevin, do you think Ranaudo signs with Boston?
Kevin Goldstein: I actually think that one has been done (but not allowed to be announced) for a bit.
If so that's very good news indeed.
I agree with this. I can't imagine a scenario where Theo burns an early pick like this -- especially on a player who except for health/Boras wouldn't have fallen that far to beign with -- and doesn't get this done. Surely Theo understood Ranaudo would command way over-slot money (especially if he turned in a strong and healthy Cape performance, which Ranaudo did). This isn't like drafting and ultimately not signing Matt LaPorta in the 14th round in 2006 (although I'm sure Theo would like another shot at that). In this case, Ranaudo is the 39th pick overall. If there had been some obvious health issues arise in the Cape, that's one thing. Absent that, there's no way Theo lets this slip. Ranaudo gets done.
Not only will he be a senior, but he's already had one injury that has messed with his timeline somewhat. Even with Boras, I'd have to think that the player himself is a little leery of going to lsu, getting worked over by an eager staff trying to win baseball games right now, and getting hurt again or not be as effective as he was on the Cape.
I have it on a pretty good authority (someone from CC league who managed him) that Anthony Ranaudo will sign with the Sox tonight for somewhere in the neighborhood of 4M. Lets hope so, he said he's a fantastic kid.
