To add onto this: Aaron today was tweeting about how good Justin Tucker is. If I knew how to link a tweet I'd do it - sorry! Apparently he is so far ahead of the kicking field that Aaron argued he should get MVP voting. I don't buy that but it illustrates how good Tucker has been so far.
Are the Baltimore Ravens good?
- Thread starter Kenny F'ing Powers
- Start date
Bisciotti sure sounds like a guy who has begun the process of putting people on notice
Jamison Hensley ESPN Staff Writer
Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti: "I think John (Harbaugh) can coach better. I think Ozzie (Newsome) and Eric (DeCosta) can draft better. I think Joe (Flacco) can play better. I believe they can collectively bring us back to prominence."
Jamison Hensley ESPN Staff Writer
Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti: "I think John (Harbaugh) can coach better. I think Ozzie (Newsome) and Eric (DeCosta) can draft better. I think Joe (Flacco) can play better. I believe they can collectively bring us back to prominence."
Holy shit that Flacco contract.
Dead cap hits of $47.3M(!!!)/$28.75/$16/$8 left.
Ozzie and Eric should sign better.
Dead cap hits of $47.3M(!!!)/$28.75/$16/$8 left.
Ozzie and Eric should sign better.
Nah, bro, all he needed was to have done some stupid dances when emerging from the tunnel and give idiotic-but-passionate sideline speeches. That guarantees immunity and a job as an ESPN contributor after retirement.
Was Flacco ever any better than somewhat above average? Looking at his career, it's not very impressive. He gets a bit of Eli Manning treatment for his playoff success.
Agree. He would be hired as a GM immediately if he was fired and there were openings.
The guy on the hot seat is Harbaugh, who now has been Ravens HC 9 years. Ozzie has been here 21 years -- 26 years if you count his days with the franchise in Cleveland with BB.
Bisciotti does not knee jerk. Ozzie will some day retire to his native Alabama, almost certainly to be replaced by Eric Decosta (native of Taunton), who like Nick Caserio has passed on opportunities elsewhere.
Bisciotti does not knee jerk. Ozzie will some day retire to his native Alabama, almost certainly to be replaced by Eric Decosta (native of Taunton), who like Nick Caserio has passed on opportunities elsewhere.
The mistake happened a year or two before he signed his contract. Once he reached the end of his deal, he was 28 and had just won the Super Bowl MVP. The decision they had to make was to let him walk or sign him at a top of the market contract. At that point, both options stink for a team that wasn't looking to do a total rebuild. If they had committed to him earlier, they likely sign him at a number that reflects his production.
I thought he was really good in 2014. His play has slipped since they lost at New England in the AFCCG.
I agree with DC that Harbaugh, despite his success, is (And has been) under the microscope of the owner. If I had to guess, it's tied to the collapse of the offense. A lot of wasted money tied to Flacco and fired offensive coaches.
And that run was dead in the water until the Broncos decided to let Jacoby Jones slip behind the entire defense.
Flacco absolutely should be taking more heat. Since winning the SB and signing the big contract they've missed the playoffs 3 out of 4 years, and he's gone 29-29 with 80 TDs and 61 INTs with an 82.5 QB rating. That sucks. And for the money he's getting, that really sucks.
Flacco's never been a top QB and never should have been paid like one, and he deserves immense criticism for not living up to his contract. And the Ravens deserve immense criticism for signing him to that idiotic deal in the first place.
Flacco's never been a top QB and never should have been paid like one, and he deserves immense criticism for not living up to his contract. And the Ravens deserve immense criticism for signing him to that idiotic deal in the first place.
Since they won the SB, 2014 has been his only decent year, and even then he had a 27/12 TD/INT ratio, which isn't elite.
The other 3 years have been terrible: 19/22, 14/12, 20/15. He sucks. Those numbers are late-career Bledsoe. His only weapon has been the infuriating "throw it long and get the PI on the DB" play to guys like Torrey Smith.
Winning that SB might've been the worst thing for the next ten years of that Franchise. If a penalty is called on San Francisco's last offensive attempt, they probably jettison Flacco like I believe they'd been planning to that season and are much better situated today and going forward.
Agreed. They won the SB and naturally didn't want to break up the band, but it was a poor decision to guarantee that much money and mess up their cap that much and those chickens have come home to roost with a vengeance.
(And I'll have to go look again, but that was defensive holding on that last play, right? I can't remember clearly, but I seem to remember thinking when I saw it live it was a penalty that should have been called.)
(And I'll have to go look again, but that was defensive holding on that last play, right? I can't remember clearly, but I seem to remember thinking when I saw it live it was a penalty that should have been called.)
Yeah, I didn't think he was elite then, but he was good. They were still running that 1970s Raiders offense with Torrey Smith collecting PIs from deep balls. Ever since he threw that back breaking INT to Duron Harmon he has either been injured or terrible.
I don't understand why they have him running a dink and dunk offense now.
He doesnt even do that anymore, he's captain checkdown. The bull case for the Ravens is that the ACL still hurt him this year and he'll be better next year. Otherwise, he's fucked.
Doesnt help that his GM has put together a terrible offense and burnt draft picks on stiffs like Perriman.
Also, just cut "Joe Flacco" and put in "Kirk Cousins' and you can move this to the Redskins thread circa 2020. Its a no win situation when you have an average to above average QB who needs a big contract. Either the team pays it and probably sucks because they are getting mediocrity out of the most important position and dont have cap space to build a supporting case around that mediocrity or they dont pay it and probably end up with a terrible quarterback.
Bingo. And the Redskins made the same mistake last offseason playing hardball with Cousins.
QBs always win in these circumstances, always, because there are perhaps 20 legit starters in the League, maybe 25.
Same with the Jets and Fitzmagic after last year. Of course the Jets held their ground on him (as they should have) and still made an utter hash of things.
This is what makes the Colts squandering Andrew Luck's rookie contract years so delicious. Yes Andrew Luck is a better player then Flacco and Cousins, but we are five years in and he hasn't lived up to the hype. Yes he is still young and likely could still move closer to his ceiling but right now he is a toolsy above average QB that throws a lot of picks and hasn't proven to be capable yet of carrying an inferior team to any meaningful success. His team also now pays a lot of money for his contract that further weakens their ability to give him a supporting cast that does not suck.
And it's the Colts so it's fun to watch.
I will always remember that Luck had a much worse rookie season than RG3, turning the ball over many more times. He still hasn't fixed the issue.
There was a potential defensive PI on Jimmy Smith on the throw to Crabtree.
In 2012, Flacco was insisting on getting paid top dollar and he walked away from a six-year offer that would have paid Flacco in the neighborhood of $35 million in guarantees. Granted, the Ravens could have signed him probably for $40M in guarantees but I'm not sure that really would have helped their salary cap situation immensely.
The issue wasn't really the money. The contract was structured to be "cap friendly" so it artificially lowered the cap hit over the first three seasons, which then mean they had to do a restructuring after 3 years. Given that Ozzie had said that he wasn't going to try to win the SB after 2012-13 (like he did in 2000), it always befuddled me why the contract was structured that way.
Ozzie had a drafting run unlike many others from 1996 to say 2005-ish. It's my understanding that the Ravens do not believe that there is a repeatable skill in drafting, so naturally, the less productive drafts over the last few years wouldn't be surprising. What is surprising to me is that Ozzie is best at finding players in the middle of the field (line; ILBs; QB; RB - which reflects a philosophy he has stated in the past) but I wonder if that can hold up in today's NFL.
In Flacco's defense, he had a helluva run in that postseason. Some big time, deep bombs that connected. He had the arm strength and pedigree to be a top QB, and some people thought he would go into the next season and fulfill that promise.
Yes, but, it's the most important position in the game. Flacco, and I've posted this over the years and others have too, is one of the more inconsistent QBs. Good Flacco can shred a defense with or without PI penalties. This was a risky contract just because of the sheer dollar amount involved let alone the player. Since his SB run his skilled position players are not the same caliber. His offensive line has gotten worse. His running backs haven't been as good either. His receivers/tight-end are much worse. He doesn't have a Torrey Smith type. Pitta is always banged up. It's not just Flacco.
Baltimore's year by year offensive DVOA/Rank/Pass-DVOA/Rank/Offensive-Variance/Rank
I am using offensive variance as a proxy for Flacco's inconsistency.
2012: 3.0%/13th 9.6%/15th 10.9%/30th
2013: -21.7%/30th -9.0%/24th 2.4%/1st (so the offense had the least variance but were consistently bad)
2014: 9.4%/9th 31.9%/6th 12.2%/31st
2015: (only played 10 games) -5.2%/20th 4.1%/21st 2.7% 1st
2016: -7.8%/20th -0.6%/26th 9.5%/27th
Look at those variance stats.
The offensive line - here I am just looking at rankings for run and pass blocking. Big caveats with these stats as they are even iffier than DVOA given the noise around them. For example if an offensive line is genuinely crap but the QB releases the ball in under 2.1 seconds and therefore avoids a lot of sacks the offensive line gets credit for that. So take these with an even larger grain of salt than the regular FO metrics.
Rank Run/Rank Pass
2012: 6th/13th
2013: 32nd/16th
2014: 3rd/4th (this is the best year for Flacco's offense)
2015: 14th/2nd
2016: 20th/8th
This analysis makes me wonder how much Flacco relies on the run game for him to be successful. All QBs will have it harder in a system when they are more or less one-dimensional (pass heavy) but some can bear it easier than others.
Baltimore's year by year offensive DVOA/Rank/Pass-DVOA/Rank/Offensive-Variance/Rank
I am using offensive variance as a proxy for Flacco's inconsistency.
2012: 3.0%/13th 9.6%/15th 10.9%/30th
2013: -21.7%/30th -9.0%/24th 2.4%/1st (so the offense had the least variance but were consistently bad)
2014: 9.4%/9th 31.9%/6th 12.2%/31st
2015: (only played 10 games) -5.2%/20th 4.1%/21st 2.7% 1st
2016: -7.8%/20th -0.6%/26th 9.5%/27th
Look at those variance stats.
The offensive line - here I am just looking at rankings for run and pass blocking. Big caveats with these stats as they are even iffier than DVOA given the noise around them. For example if an offensive line is genuinely crap but the QB releases the ball in under 2.1 seconds and therefore avoids a lot of sacks the offensive line gets credit for that. So take these with an even larger grain of salt than the regular FO metrics.
Rank Run/Rank Pass
2012: 6th/13th
2013: 32nd/16th
2014: 3rd/4th (this is the best year for Flacco's offense)
2015: 14th/2nd
2016: 20th/8th
This analysis makes me wonder how much Flacco relies on the run game for him to be successful. All QBs will have it harder in a system when they are more or less one-dimensional (pass heavy) but some can bear it easier than others.
Aaron's twitter account is nonsense - twitter seems to bring that out in people.
FO has BAL's FG unit as +25 points, and their kickoff unit as +6, for a total of +31 points - there are several teams in the +17 range (And Ghost is +12), so you could definitely argue that Tucker is worth 15 points more than the next best kicker, and 30 than (not sure if average or replacement, they're not real clear). The first problem is that LA's punter is +29.5, which is well within the margin of error.
The second problem is that Matt Ryan is at about +140, and a bunch of other QBs are +100
So yeah, Tucker is having a fantastic season for a kicker, but no, deserving MVP votes is nonsense.
It was absolutely PI. No question. But as SB42 shows, they swallow their whistles at the end of SBs. It's just how it is.
Did we ever get any info on the power outage? It was just a weird game all around.
According to Wikipedia there was no foul play. Hard to tell if there was even incompetence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XLVII#Power_outage
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XLVII#Power_outage
Yeah it was a bit click-baity but he mentioned it in various channels: twitter, writing on FO, and in podcasts. It's, and he admits this, twisted logic but I think he said if he voted for MVP like the baseball MVP votes he would put Tucker on as 5th to make a point/give-kudos. He argues that Matt Ryan is the MVP.
QB Rating is a meh stat. Fine. Whatever. I think it is useful to show variance though.
Flacco QB Rating Average/Std Dev/% of QB Rating is Std Dev
2016: 83.85/ 15.6/ 18.7%
2015: 81.85/ 19.38/ 23.7%
2014: 94.33/ 29.84/ 31.6%
2013: 74.84/ 20.27/ 26.7%
2012: 88.25/ 26.46/ 30.0%
Without comparisons these are just numbers out of context. I was thinking about doing this for two-three other QBs. Brady or Discount Double-Check as the gold standard and then maybe 1-2 other guys who aren't top 5 but aren't bottom 10 either. Ideas?
Flacco QB Rating Average/Std Dev/% of QB Rating is Std Dev
2016: 83.85/ 15.6/ 18.7%
2015: 81.85/ 19.38/ 23.7%
2014: 94.33/ 29.84/ 31.6%
2013: 74.84/ 20.27/ 26.7%
2012: 88.25/ 26.46/ 30.0%
Without comparisons these are just numbers out of context. I was thinking about doing this for two-three other QBs. Brady or Discount Double-Check as the gold standard and then maybe 1-2 other guys who aren't top 5 but aren't bottom 10 either. Ideas?
Ravens LB Zach Orr retiring due to shoulder injury:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000776842/article/ravens-linebacker-zach-orr-retiring
Sucks for them, he was one of their best young players IMO.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000776842/article/ravens-linebacker-zach-orr-retiring
Sucks for them, he was one of their best young players IMO.
The ESPN article I read said he suffered a stinger in his neck in December. That's a lot scarier than a shoulder injury.
Edit: actually, the article you linked does too. Congenital neck condition.
