Are the Pats the worst team in the NFL?

Petagine in a Bottle

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We’ve been so damaged by Mac that we think JB is a good QB; 18-30 with a career 85.3 rtg, compared to Mac’s 18-24 with an 85.8. The obvious difference is that JB holds on to the ball- career INT rate of 1.4% is half that of Mac. But I don’t really see how this team is going to put points on the board.
 

Salem's Lot

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I think the question I would ask the OP is – “If the Pats are the worst team in 2024, would that embarrass you?”

I’ve watched a lot of Red Sox fans over the years start foaming at the mouth at the idea of the team finishing in *last place* – as if it’s some great shame and humiliation to be avoided at all costs.

We’ve been hearing people complain for YEARS about the supposed lack of talent anywhere on this roster. I sort of disagree and think dysfunction was as much to blame but regardless, losing for a few years gives Wolf multiple bites at the apple to replenish the talent base of the team and doesn’t mean every pick in 2024 has to pan out.

Given the brutal schedule, I actually think it takes the pressure off – if they do well, people will credit the first year coach and GM for beating the odds. If not, no one should’ve expected much during a rebuilding year anyway. Win win.

Regardless, like the Red Sox these past few years, I will be happy to see the new direction they go in and who emerges.
Finishing last for 2/3 years is much better for you’re organization than finishing with 9/10 wins and being on the playoff miss/ wild card round fodder line. There’s a much better chance of acquiring the talent to build a contender in the former situation.
 

Old Fart Tree

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I think the question I would ask the OP is – “If the Pats are the worst team in 2024, would that embarrass you?”

Couldn't possibly give a shit. If they're not playing competitive games in December, sign me up for dead fucking last. Reload in the draft, take another swing next year. I give no shits if they are last in the division, conference, or league.
 

mauf

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We’ve been so damaged by Mac that we think JB is a good QB; 18-30 with a career 85.3 rtg, compared to Mac’s 18-24 with an 85.8. The obvious difference is that JB holds on to the ball- career INT rate of 1.4% is half that of Mac. But I don’t really see how this team is going to put points on the board.
Now look at their numbers the past two seasons. Unless you think Mac’s rookie year or Brissett’s early-career struggles are still predictive, Brissett is the better QB and it’s not close. That doesn’t mean this year’s Pats are going anywhere or that Brissett is more than a stopgap, but they’ll be significantly better at QB, assuming Maye doesn’t see the field unless he’s within shouting distance of Brissett.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Many thought the Bs were going to have a down (or middling) year this year and they were one of the tops few teams (in the regular season). Maybe the Pats will surprise us.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think it’s hard to say how good Brissett is, he didn’t really play last year, was below average the year prior - an 88.9 rating is in between Mac’s rookie and second seasons. Look, he can be moderately better than Mac but still mediocre. He’s a guy who won’t make the mistakes Mac makes but I think this team is going to really struggle to put the ball in the end zone. At least we have a good kicker….
 

Curt S Loew

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Many thought the Bs were going to have a down (or middling) year this year and they were one of the tops few teams (in the regular season). Maybe the Pats will surprise us.
Yeah. Down from the greatest NHL team (in the regular season) ever. And they lost two legendary players. I think that view was expected.

Kind of an opposite situation in Foxboro, but yes they could surprise us for sure.
 

rodderick

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I have a feeling Jacoby Brissett won't be playing a big part in the destiny of the 2024 Patriots. Just show some semblance of life on offense and I'm good. Not really concerned with the win total, hard to have a baseline with this new coaching staff.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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I think that Jacoby will be a fairly significant upgrade on Mac Jones, despite being an average-at-best type NFL QB. I also think the WR room will look very different — week 10 last year had JuJu, Demario, and Kayshon Boutte starting. They should be more competitive this year with Bourne / Douglas / Polk / Baker / Osborne / ???

It will come down to how the OL shapes up — and that is probably going to be a challenge, but I just can’t see how this team can be worse on offense than they were last year with Mac and Bailey at QB.
Bourne is coming off an ACL injury though and for a guy of his skills and age, along with when he tore it, I don’t know that I’d expect him to be particularly useful for a lot of the year. He might not even start the season on the active roster (PUP perhaps?). Even then, he’s pretty mediocre on his best days

Baker/Polk who knows. Rookie WR are doing a bit better the past few years league wide but I wouldn’t count on either of them for much beyond standard #3 type protection. Will one of them be better than last year’s guys? Probably but that’s a low bar to clear. Enough to make a real difference in the quality of offense? Who knows, I’m skeptical.

Osborn had among the league highest drop % last year. Not counting on him for much. Perhaps Thornton emerges or JJSS can regain form.

There’s enough question marks to think one or two guys will exceed expectations and be pretty good (mid-low end #2) But, other than Douglas, it’s an entire group of question marks with IMO limited upside and really low floors.

And yeah whoever the Pats trot out at QB can’t be worse than what we saw last year. But if the WR don’t emerge and the OL is as bad as it looks on paper, it’s not going to matter too much - it will still be a bottom 5 passing attack. The OL needs to get some surprise break out performances and good luck with health for this offense to have anything resembling a mediocre offense.

Unless, of course, Maye is a star from day 1.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Now look at their numbers the past two seasons. Unless you think Mac’s rookie year or Brissett’s early-career struggles are still predictive, Brissett is the better QB and it’s not close. That doesn’t mean this year’s Pats are going anywhere or that Brissett is more than a stopgap, but they’ll be significantly better at QB, assuming Maye doesn’t see the field unless he’s within shouting distance of Brissett.
Brissett had 23 passing attempts last year

The two years prior he had ratings of 88.9 and 78.1 (27 games played, 16 starts)

He didn’t just have “early career struggles”

He’s not a good starting QB. The only guys he’s better than are absolute trash (Zach Wilson, last years Mac Jones) or 3rd stringers who are forced into being starters because of injuries.

I like Brissett. He’s a good stop gap and ideal backup and mentor.

But the guy isn’t a good NFL QB. He’s not even an average NFL starting QB. He’s a below average starter who is consistently below average but not horrendous because he’s pretty safe with the ball
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Couldn't possibly give a shit. If they're not playing competitive games in December, sign me up for dead fucking last. Reload in the draft, take another swing next year. I give no shits if they are last in the division, conference, or league.
In theory I agree. Would much prefer a terrible season (record wise) with a team that can hang in most games but can’t quite win (i.e. a lot of 20-13 or 17-14 losses).

But Wolf’s strategy is curious and I’d be concerned about his ability as a talent evaluator if they were terrible again this year. He took a bottom 3 team, so apparently devoid of talent that it cost BB his job and added scrap heap veterans on short deals and locked up BB guys for the next few years. If they don’t improve this year, I question what his actual roster building strategy is.

The entire off-season comes off as his philosophy was “the roster is mostly fine, just need a different QB and swap out a couple of depth players”

Other than Maye, I don’t see much of a rebuild in progress. Keeping Barmore and Onwenu was great. But retaining/extending all the other guys (Stevenson, Henry, Bourne, Dugger, Jennings, Tavai) gives the impression that he thinks most of the core guys for 2025 are currently on the roster. If 2024 is an abject failure, then I think it speaks to a miscalculation on his part.
 

Van Everyman

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Other than Maye, I don’t see much of a rebuild in progress. Keeping Barmore and Onwenu was great. But retaining/extending all the other guys (Stevenson, Henry, Bourne, Dugger, Jennings, Tavai) gives the impression that he thinks most of the core guys for 2025 are currently on the roster. If 2024 is an abject failure, then I think it speaks to a miscalculation on his part.
We’ve discussed this before but Wolf and Mayo clearly felt re-signing guys was—if not as much at least also—about preserving and transitioning the culture from Bill to Mayo as it was locking in talent. So most likely that will mean they have guys signed whose impact will be more in the locker room and on the practice field as it is during games. Given the seismic move moving on from Bill, I am ok with that.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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In theory I agree. Would much prefer a terrible season (record wise) with a team that can hang in most games but can’t quite win (i.e. a lot of 20-13 or 17-14 losses).

But Wolf’s strategy is curious and I’d be concerned about his ability as a talent evaluator if they were terrible again this year. He took a bottom 3 team, so apparently devoid of talent that it cost BB his job and added scrap heap veterans on short deals and locked up BB guys for the next few years. If they don’t improve this year, I question what his actual roster building strategy is.

The entire off-season comes off as his philosophy was “the roster is mostly fine, just need a different QB and swap out a couple of depth players”

Other than Maye, I don’t see much of a rebuild in progress. Keeping Barmore and Onwenu was great. But retaining/extending all the other guys (Stevenson, Henry, Bourne, Dugger, Jennings, Tavai) gives the impression that he thinks most of the core guys for 2025 are currently on the roster. If 2024 is an abject failure, then I think it speaks to a miscalculation on his part.
So who would you be acquiring to replace Stevenson, Henry, Bourne, Dugger, Jennings, and Tavai, how did you get them, and how much did they cost?
 

Hendoo

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What is the over under on how many times during the season this thread will be reanimated with a one word post stating “yes” post game?
 

j-man

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In theory I agree. Would much prefer a terrible season (record wise) with a team that can hang in most games but can’t quite win (i.e. a lot of 20-13 or 17-14 losses).

But Wolf’s strategy is curious and I’d be concerned about his ability as a talent evaluator if they were terrible again this year. He took a bottom 3 team, so apparently devoid of talent that it cost BB his job and added scrap heap veterans on short deals and locked up BB guys for the next few years. If they don’t improve this year, I question what his actual roster building strategy is.

The entire off-season comes off as his philosophy was “the roster is mostly fine, just need a different QB and swap out a couple of depth players”

Other than Maye, I don’t see much of a rebuild in progress. Keeping Barmore and Onwenu was great. But retaining/extending all the other guys (Stevenson, Henry, Bourne, Dugger, Jennings, Tavai) gives the impression that he thinks most of the core guys for 2025 are currently on the roster. If 2024 is an abject failure, then I think it speaks to a miscalculation on his part.
100% u had a great opp to start over 100% other than re-sign onwenu i would had let everyone else u re-signed go as of today u guys still have 43 mil in space but with my moves u guys would have 75 mil to roll over for 25
 

ifmanis5

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Before the Judon trade I was thinking best outcome would be maybe 5-6 wins. Now I'm thinking 3-4 is most likely. Maybe it's just vibes but seems like it's an admittance that we're already in semi-tank mode. Which may be the right course of action given the roster and division but this went from maybe a sneaky frisky to a full bridge situation for my expectations.
View: https://twitter.com/BillSimmons/status/1824059602125664707

This 2024 Pats season is starting to take on 1990/Rod Rust/Victor Kiam vibes. I can’t find four wins. It’s gonna be one of the 5-6 worst Pats teams ever. We’re headed for this group.
 

Ed Hillel

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I think this could be a 2-win team if Vederian Lowe is starting. If they solve the OL and become competent, I could see as many as 7-8.
 

cshea

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FWIW, the national media types seem to be a bit higher on them than the local guys.

Barnwell and Solak did a bit of a preview pod last week and both had then with 7+ wins. The Ringer did a summer “draft the worst teams” pod and the Pats went 7th or 8th. Basically the reasoning is defense is good, with some hedging on the Belichick brain drain annd Barmore, and the offense can’t be as bad as it was last year, almost anything is an improvement.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Barring a miraculous development along the OL and Maye not only playing but playing at a high level, this is going to be an awful football team

Little talent on offense, defense not looking as good without Barmore/Judon and there’s basically no depth anywhere on D except off the ball LB.

Your top backups are who? Pharms, Ximines, Marco Jones and Jaylinn Hawkins?
 
Oct 12, 2023
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I think this could be a 2-win team if Vederian Lowe is starting. If they solve the OL and become competent, I could see as many as 7-8.
Lowe is awful but let’s not kid ourselves than Okorafor, Wallace or Anderson is 5 wins better. Maybe Wallace can develop into something but Okorafor and Anderson are marginally better than Lowe (apparently not at all better at LT given Lowe seems to be getting most of the reps there).
 

Kliq

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I think they will win 7 games. The major question is just how big of an impact losing Belichick is, and I think there will be some positives with BB gone and some negatives.

The entire team had zero confidence in the QB situation last year and that attitude permeated across all three phases. Moving on from Mac/Zappe into Brissett/Maye is a big upgrade. I also think WR room will be greatly improved--still not great, but we won't be relying on the corpses of Juju and Devante Parker on third down.

Its hard if you look at the schedule right now and see which games the Pats would be favored in, but that is a pretty bad way to evaluate the potential win total for a team. Games that look hard in August might be a cakewalk in December.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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FWIW, the national media types seem to be a bit higher on them than the local guys.

Barnwell and Solak did a bit of a preview pod last week and both had then with 7+ wins. The Ringer did a summer “draft the worst teams” pod and the Pats went 7th or 8th. Basically the reasoning is defense is good, with some hedging on the Belichick brain drain annd Barmore, and the offense can’t be as bad as it was last year, almost anything is an improvement.
I can't get past four myself. I think if the defense is good, the record will look like the Rod Rust era, but with somewhat less hideous point differentials.
 

Traut

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Football games are won and lost at the line of scrimmage. And the Patriots offensive line is awful.

I don’t know the ins and outs of the other bad teams. But my vote here is - yes. They are the worst team in the league.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think the upgrade at QB is overstated. Mac and Zappe were awful but Brissett is likely to be one of the worst starters in the league, and who knows with Maye. This team won’t turn the ball over as much but i think they are going to have real trouble scoring TD’s. At least we have a good kick…oh, right. Defense was good last year and team was still terrible. I’d guess 3-4 wins.
 

Ale Xander

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They will upset to go 1-3 against Jets/Fins and win one of the two v Titans or Cardinals, maybe both

So that’s 2-3 wins

Don’t see where else they pick up a win
 

IdiotKicker

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There is a reasonable case for anywhere from 1-8 wins at this point. I think the distribution is probably skewed towards 2-3, but we have so many new coaches in roles they’ve never served in before, coupled with a dearth of OL talent and a defense that has now seen its front seven thinned tremendously, and I have no idea where they’re going to end up other than they won’t be good. It’s just unclear if they can make it to mediocre or if they’ll be bad.
 

lexrageorge

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Who might follow Judon out of town via trade?
  • Jon Jones. $9M savings if traded. Still a very good CB. Maybe worth a 5th or 6th?
  • Wise. $5M savings if cut or traded. Maybe worth a 7th or a swap?
  • Zappe.
They don’t need to save $5M or even $9M just to get a couple of 7’s. At the very least, they should at least wait until the trade deadline.
 

Jimbodandy

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Good to get everyone on the record in this thread.

I think 6 wins.

This is not the chaos organization of the past. There's a talent problem, no doubt. But lot of experienced, quality players and coaches. Not enough to even challenge for a playoff spot imo, but "worst"? This reminds me more of the 5-11 BFB first year than the aluminum-bleachers/hope-the-groundskeeper-checks-clear-this-month days of yore.
 

BigSoxFan

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Going with 3-14. I think they’re going to alternate between getting blown out and losing semi-close games when the defense shows up. Zero confidence in anything on the offensive side until proven otherwise.
 

Bigdogx

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I said 4 wins at the beginning of this year, i will stick with that even though i think that this team is fully capable of not getting a single win this season as the team stands today. Between the difficult schedule this season and the line being a pile of junk, i can very much see us beating that 1 win 1990 season right now....
 

Ale Xander

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i have confidence in Rham but not in the line opening holes for him

I have confidence in Henry but not in the QB getting him the ball
 

astrozombie

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Put me down for 3-4 wins. Any given Sunday and all, plus random stuff happens all the time. But for me this is a development year; I don't care if they go 0-17 as long as they are competitive/show progressive improvement/don't get injured/are better next year.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Here's their implied win percentage each game via DraftKings lines after removing the vig:

CIN: 20
SEA: 42
at NYJ: 24
SF: 15
vs. MIA: 35
HOU: 32
JAC: 27
vs. NYJ: 33
TEN: 42
CHI: 32
LAR: 36
at MIA: 23
IND: 41
ARI: 37
at BUF: 21
LAC: 42
vs. BUF: 38

That's a total of about 5.4. It's really hard to be 2-3 win bad.
 

Mooch

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I think this team is going to be dreadful. 2-15 is not out of the question. The offense could be historically bad and Barmore’s absence will be catastrophic.
 

Bigdogx

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Here's their implied win percentage each game via DraftKings lines after removing the vig:

CIN: 20
SEA: 42
at NYJ: 24
SF: 15
vs. MIA: 35
HOU: 32
JAC: 27
vs. NYJ: 33
TEN: 42
CHI: 32
LAR: 36
at MIA: 23
IND: 41
ARI: 37
at BUF: 21
LAC: 42
vs. BUF: 38

That's a total of about 5.4. It's really hard to be 2-3 win bad.
Kind of really paints the picture of how bad things are currently... I just dont see any team on that list that are at the basement level the Patriots currently reside at.
 

BaseballJones

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I think they will be pretty bad and am thinking like 4 wins or so. The good news is that they’ll once again have a great draft slot and that’s how they’ll rebuild. They should be able to get good OL help they desperately need.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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The Rod Rust team was far worse than this one. Total hyperbole to compare them.
Different era and all that, but the offense of the 1990’s Pats had Irving Fryer, Marv Cook and Bruce Armstrong. On D they had Tippett, Hurst, Vince Brown and some solid “B tier” talent

It was a terribly coached team with no QB and a D that wildly underperformed (probably due to the inept offense)

Worse? Sure. But “far worse”, I don’t think so. This D without Barmore and Judon isn’t anything special and they’re one injury away from having practice squad guys start at key spots on D.
 

Cellar-Door

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Patriots are in a group of 6-7 teams that are bad. I don't think they'll be the worst, the defense is good, they have improved QB situation and WR room.
Schedule could be tough (but we thought that last year, and injuries dropped it down a lot).

I don't think the talent is any worse overall than: Car, NYG, DEN, TEN, WAS, OAK. And there are a number of other teams that are a QB injury away from collapse
 

Ale Xander

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The Rod Rust team was far worse than this one. Total hyperbole to compare them.
In the locker room (Fryar, Mowatt etc) and in the coaching staff but not in talent.

That team also had no home advantage whatsoever

they went 0-14 after the Mowatt Olson incident iirc
 

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Its hard to look at their schedule and find more than four wins - with no disrespect to these teams maybe vs Seattle, Jacksonville, Tennessee and AZ but they may easily lose those matchups too.

That said, even with expectations of a rough season I plan to watch as much as possible. You never know how things play out and we are likely to get a new batch of people to dream on.

Its probably not going to be pretty whatever happens.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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Patriots are in a group of 6-7 teams that are bad. I don't think they'll be the worst, the defense is good, they have improved QB situation and WR room.
Schedule could be tough (but we thought that last year, and injuries dropped it down a lot).

I don't think the talent is any worse overall than: Car, NYG, DEN, TEN, WAS, OAK. And there are a number of other teams that are a QB injury away from collapse
Problem is we're only playing one of those teams.
 

Silverdude2167

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2 wins, before the preseason I thought the defense would be passable, but now with injuries and trades they are going to be below average to go with an offense that can't block.

It is going to be ugly.
 

Ale Xander

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Patriots are in a group of 6-7 teams that are bad. I don't think they'll be the worst, the defense is good, they have improved QB situation and WR room.
Schedule could be tough (but we thought that last year, and injuries dropped it down a lot).

I don't think the talent is any worse overall than: Car, NYG, DEN, TEN, WAS, OAK. And there are a number of other teams that are a QB injury away from collapse
Defense is a lot worse without Barmore and Judon and doesn’t have BB coaching them up