Are the Pats the worst team in the NFL?

[NextBigThing8184]

Why is this?

I was just thinking the other day that if you believe in a “wisdom of the crowd” approach he’s the least risky guy to draft because everyone agrees he’s great.

The advanced stats people love him; the more traditional “tools and skills” people love him; there may be criticisms that I haven’t see , but from what I have he’s the only guy in the top 5-10 that everyone agrees should be top 3

And it’s not like we couldn’t use a great corner

What are you seeing different here?

I don’t think he’s the best CB nor the best WR in the draft. He might end up being the best one of those, once he spends a year or two honing his craft at one position. But any team trying to make a 2 way player out of him is making a mistake.

he’s a tremendous collfootball player. But there’s a lot of projection with him - he might be the best CB if he focuses on that full time and gets a lot of good coaching. He might end up a great WR if he gives up defense and ends up in the right scheme etc

A lot comes down to what Hunter wants to do. Is he adamant that he’s a 2 way guy? Does he stick with his better position (CB) or does he stick with the higher paying position (WR)?

lastly, I don’t trust the Pats current coaches to be able to develop a unique talent. If they want an elite defender, just take Graham or Johnson or even one of the top edge guys. If they want to fix their offense, McMillan or reaching a bit for Banks makes more sense.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

…but wouldn’t a two way player be FUN?

I’ve watched my six Super Bowl wins, I’m ok with just bread and circuses for a bit.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

…but wouldn’t a two way player be FUN?

I’ve watched my six Super Bowl wins, I’m ok with just bread and circuses for a bit.

Mayo can't even find a way to use Marcus Jones on offense and defense, I wouldn't give him the chance to use a better player the same way.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Mayo can't even find a way to use Marcus Jones on offense and defense, I wouldn't give him the chance to use a better player the same way.

LOL-- dude, I'm sympathetic to your frustration. The team sucks. Unless I've missed something there's nobody on this board who is defending the coaching staff or the front office.

At the same time it cracks me up how you post factually inaccurate things as if it makes your case stronger. It's safe to assume that we watched the games and can look up the box score. Marcus Jones got both offensive and defensive snaps against Indy, as he has pretty regularly for the last month+

Again, I'm sympathetic to your frustration. And some of your posts can come across like a crazed guy on the street corner yelling that the sun rises in the south, black is white, Mayo never plays Marcus Jones on offense, the moon is made of green cheese, and so on

You don't need to overdo it to make your point, is all I'm sayin'

No hate, all love. Happy Tuesday

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

I don’t think he’s the best CB nor the best WR in the draft. He might end up being the best one of those, once he spends a year or two honing his craft at one position. But any team trying to make a 2 way player out of him is making a mistake.

So, take this as coming from a place of curiosity, since I'm neither buying nor selling on Hunter at this point

The draft profiles that are available online that we skim seem to be projecting him as a full time CB and (seem to me to be) assuming he's not a two-way player in the NFL. And as a full time CB (who might moonlight a little on offense a la Marcus Jones) most of them are saying he's clearly the best player in the draft, across all positions.

I don't mean this in an obnoxious/provocative way, but as someone who watches only a little college football: what are you seeing when you watch the guy that makes you think they're all wrong in this assessment?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

LOL-- dude, I'm sympathetic to your frustration. The team sucks. Unless I've missed something there's nobody on this board who is defending the coaching staff or the front office.

At the same time it cracks me up how you post factually inaccurate things as if it makes your case stronger. It's safe to assume that we watched the games and can look up the box score. Marcus Jones got both offensive and defensive snaps against Indy, as he has pretty regularly for the last month+

Again, I'm sympathetic to your frustration. And some of your posts can come across like a crazed guy on the street corner yelling that the sun rises in the south, black is white, Mayo never plays Marcus Jones on offense, the moon is made of green cheese, and so on

You don't need to overdo it to make your point, is all I'm sayin'

No hate, all love. Happy Tuesday

No I know Jones got snaps on both sides this week. I am referring to the topic that AVP wasn't aware that Jones had played both ways earlier in his career and Mayo didn't seem aware of it either until reminded by....the press? Only afterwards did Jones start seeing offensive snaps.

We are in the midst of seeing a team fumble away a tremendous opportunity to recover. Getting a franchise QB at 3 is an incredible gift (a gift the Jets never seem to get despite picking high all the time) and yet the coach and GM are so incompetent at their jobs that they are about to throw away the best chance they'll ever have of being good. It's infuriating.

I didn't expect them to be a playoff team this year. But I sure as fuck didn't think they'd be worse than last year. Nearly every single in-game decision Mayo makes is wrong. The defense is infinitely worse than last year. AVP has done a good job as OC, for sure, but keeps getting hamstrung by Mayo's insanely conservative and frankly stupid decisions.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

It's infuriating.

I hear ya

Just keep breathing. You're doing yeoman's work around here. I don't want you to stroke out on us or anything.

 

[Red Averages]

No I know Jones got snaps on both sides this week. I am referring to the topic that AVP wasn't aware that Jones had played both ways earlier in his career and Mayo didn't seem aware of it either until reminded by....the press? Only afterwards did Jones start seeing offensive snaps.

We are in the midst of seeing a team fumble away a tremendous opportunity to recover. Getting a franchise QB at 3 is an incredible gift (a gift the Jets never seem to get despite picking high all the time) and yet the coach and GM are so incompetent at their jobs that they are about to throw away the best chance they'll ever have of being good. It's infuriating.

I didn't expect them to be a playoff team this year. But I sure as fuck didn't think they'd be worse than last year. Nearly every single in-game decision Mayo makes is wrong. The defense is infinitely worse than last year. AVP has done a good job as OC, for sure, but keeps getting hamstrung by Mayo's insanely conservative and frankly stupid decisions.

The absolute best case scenario for this team in 2024 was:

- Determine Maye is the QB of the future and set him on the right path.
- Get a top 5 pick in 2025, ideally as close to #1 as you can get.
- Get conviction in some of the other draft picks from 2024 and 2023.

If they can get the top pick AND have confidence in Maye that is a home run year. Full stop. If they fought hard and won 7 games it would be a horrible year. Horrible. Or if they got the first pick because Maye was not the longer term solution that would also be a horrible year. We are not there. With a 2-3 year view the team would be worse off than the team with the top 3 pick. Look at the rest of the division. The Jets and Dolphins will be trash in 2-3 years. The Bills will have Allen entering his year 30-31 years and his contract will be up 50% (60mm vs 40mm). That's the time we are focusing on winning, not 2024.

Stay with me for a minute and assume the Pats get the first pick (I don't think they will, but they are the favorite on ESPN's weird way of doing it: https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/story/_/id/41195230/2025-nfl-draft-order-projections-first-round-picks ). That's tremendous value to the franchise. They could trade back to 4th or 5th and take whichever non QB/Hunter player they want, while likely picking up another 1st ('26) and 2nd round pick (25), if not more. That leaves the Pats with a franchise QB on year 2 of his contract, and likely a stud WR or OL to pair him with, plus 2 top 2nd round picks and 2 3rd round picks..... and then 2 first round picks in 26. That's "fumbling" away a tremendous opportunity? No. That's leaning into it. Even if it's not the top pick, but they end up 4th and draft a stud WR or stud OL to pair with Maye this will be a success. Look at Burrow and Chase and what a huge advantage that is. That team made the super bowl with both on rookie contracts.

IMO, you are way, way, way too focused on the micro this season and missing the macro that is the real opportunity.

 

[jk333]

I am referring to the topic that AVP wasn't aware that Jones had played both ways earlier in his career and Mayo didn't seem aware of it either until reminded by....the press? Only afterwards did Jones start seeing offensive snaps.

Of course Mayo knew about Jones background on offense. It’s not believable that Mayo does not know (all) basic information about all of his core 20-30 players.

This is why Belichik did not speak to the press. And why Mayo may want to head closer to Belichik’s model than his own.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

To the thread topic... Pats maybe not uniquely awful?

Source: https://bsky.app/profile/rbsdm.com/post/3lcfsxaltlk2n

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Of course Mayo knew about Jones background on offense. It’s not believable that Mayo does not know (all) basic information about all of his core 20-30 players.

This is why Belichik did not speak to the press. And why Mayo may want to head closer to Belichik’s model than his own.

Honestly, I am fine with Mayo being his own man and handling the PR responsibilities differently than BB did. I don't want or expect every guy to pretend to be BB.

The issue is that Mayo continually sticks his foot in his mouth, and pawns off responsibility and accountability to others.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Of course Mayo knew about Jones background on offense. It’s not believable that Mayo does not know (all) basic information about all of his core 20-30 players.

This is why Belichik did not speak to the press. And why Mayo may want to head closer to Belichik’s model than his own.

Yeah, my takeaway from the whole thing is.... they wanted Jones to focus on defense and returning, he was coming off a major injury and they really wanted to know if he was the slot corner of the future as they pivot away from Jon in that spot. So he was NOT expected to be an option on that side, especially with all the additions at WR. So he was not addressed as an option at any point with AVP, on the idea of "why waste time, we want him full time in the D room". Then the season was a mess, the WRs were bad, Marcus got his feet under him and thought "yeah maybe I could do some defense" and reached out.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

IMO, you are way, way, way too focused on the micro this season and missing the macro that is the real opportunity.

No I'm not, I simply do not believe that tanking (or sucking assuming they are actually trying to win) has any tangible benefits. I am aware others feel differently, but to me, players have to learn what it takes to win in the league, and by losing multiple years in a row, you set that process back, or perhaps permanently sabotage it.

The real opportunity was getting a franchise QB at 3. That's what they needed, and Maye fell into their laps. Wolf didn't even have to make a hard choice once WAS took Daniels. We've already had the real opportunity. They're doing nothing with it.

And as this season goes on, it's become crystal clear that neither Wolf (as the guy picking the groceries) and Mayo (as the guy making the dinner) are competent at their appointed tasks, and should not be the ones trusted with a franchise rebuild.

 

[tims4wins]

The absolute best case scenario for this team in 2024 was:

- Determine Maye is the QB of the future and set him on the right path.
- Get a top 5 pick in 2025, ideally as close to #1 as you can get.
- Get conviction in some of the other draft picks from 2024 and 2023.

If they can get the top pick AND have confidence in Maye that is a home run year. Full stop. If they fought hard and won 7 games it would be a horrible year. Horrible. Or if they got the first pick because Maye was not the longer term solution that would also be a horrible year. We are not there. With a 2-3 year view the team would be worse off than the team with the top 3 pick. Look at the rest of the division. The Jets and Dolphins will be trash in 2-3 years. The Bills will have Allen entering his year 30-31 years and his contract will be up 50% (60mm vs 40mm). That's the time we are focusing on winning, not 2024.

Stay with me for a minute and assume the Pats get the first pick (I don't think they will, but they are the favorite on ESPN's weird way of doing it: https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2025/story/_/id/41195230/2025-nfl-draft-order-projections-first-round-picks ). That's tremendous value to the franchise. They could trade back to 4th or 5th and take whichever non QB/Hunter player they want, while likely picking up another 1st ('26) and 2nd round pick (25), if not more. That leaves the Pats with a franchise QB on year 2 of his contract, and likely a stud WR or OL to pair him with, plus 2 top 2nd round picks and 2 3rd round picks..... and then 2 first round picks in 26. That's "fumbling" away a tremendous opportunity? No. That's leaning into it. Even if it's not the top pick, but they end up 4th and draft a stud WR or stud OL to pair with Maye this will be a success. Look at Burrow and Chase and what a huge advantage that is. That team made the super bowl with both on rookie contracts.

IMO, you are way, way, way too focused on the micro this season and missing the macro that is the real opportunity.

Personally I disagree with the losing as much as possible angle. In a best case scenario world (from a wins perspective), the Pats could have beaten Seattle, Miami (first game), Tennessee, and Indy. You're telling me that you wouldn't feel better about their future sitting at 7-6 than where we are today at 3-10?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Personally I disagree with the losing as much as possible angle. In a best case scenario world (from a wins perspective), the Pats could have beaten Seattle, Miami (first game), Tennessee, and Indy. You're telling me that you wouldn't feel better about their future sitting at 7-6 than where we are today at 3-10?

Right. From these marco perspectives I'm hearing about, it would have been considered a bad thing that the 1993 Pats won their last 4 games to finish at 5-11. "THEY'RE RUINING THEIR DRAFT POSITION!" But it was the opposite; we saw that the rebuild was already working, and they carried that confidence into the next season.

The Process has totally warped the POV of rebuilding. Thanks Hinkie.

 

[tims4wins]

Right. From these marco perspectives I'm hearing about, it would have been considered a bad thing that the 1993 Pats won their last 4 games to finish at 5-11. "THEY'RE RUINING THEIR DRAFT POSITION!" But it was the opposite; we saw that the rebuild was already working, and they carried that confidence into the next season.

The Process has totally warped the POV of rebuilding. Thanks Hinkie.

Or the 2000 Patriots, who started 0-4 under BB but then were a respectable 5-7 in their final 12, "only" getting to pick 6th.

Edit: similarity being that ultimately you just have to pick the right guy - Willie in 1994, Seymour in 2001

 

[Cellar-Door]

No I'm not, I simply do not believe that tanking (or sucking assuming they are actually trying to win) has any tangible benefits. I am aware others feel differently, but to me, players have to learn what it takes to win in the league, and by losing multiple years in a row, you set that process back, or perhaps permanently sabotage it.

The real opportunity was getting a franchise QB at 3. That's what they needed, and Maye fell into their laps. Wolf didn't even have to make a hard choice once WAS took Daniels. We've already had the real opportunity. They're doing nothing with it.

And as this season goes on, it's become crystal clear that neither Wolf (as the guy picking the groceries) and Mayo (as the guy making the dinner) are competent at their appointed tasks, and should not be the ones trusted with a franchise rebuild.

I'm not where you are (particularly on Wolf), but I do think one part of this that people are too quick to dismiss.... Coaches set culture, but also guys need to learn what their coach is.
If you came to the Belichick Patriots... you knew he was gonna roast everybody in meetings, you were gonna work hard, do your job.... but also he was gonna be there when you got there, and there when you left, he was going to be prepared for everything and he was going to do a great job in on-field decision making.
You go to any place with a long-term good coach you know what they are and that they are going to give you a chance to win, they are going to make you look good, etc.

I thought of this because of a discussion about the Bears under Eberflus.....

He'd been there a few years, and consistently there seemed to be a lack of attention to detail and preparedness, and it showed late in games over and over. And that team started expecting to be let down... you had DJ Moore (who has been on some truly terrible teams) just looking like he wanted to quit based on Eberflus and Waldron's shortcomings. You had reportedly basically a mutiny on Thanksgiving when Eberflus was telling them to stay the course....

That would be my concern with Mayo... he keeps fucking up in ways that imply a lack of preparation, and then he makes comments to the press that he constantly walks back, and that several times this year have ruffled player feathers. My concern is... unless he improves a lot this year or over the summer.... this team could be a mess mid-season 2025 regardless of talent upgrades. THAT I think is what losing cultures actually are, not organizational, but coaches setting expectations of failure.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

To the thread topic... Pats maybe not uniquely awful?

Source: https://bsky.app/profile/rbsdm.com/post/3lcfsxaltlk2n

Assuming this is based on robust inputs, its hard to argue that the 2024 Patriots are underperforming their talent. Those arguments are made here, each and every day and manufacturing seems to be ramping up. But they hard to buy when you look at the data.

This roster is terrible and most of these players won't be here in a few seasons.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

That would be my concern with Mayo... he keeps fucking up in ways that imply a lack of preparation, and then he makes comments to the press that he constantly walks back, and that several times this year have ruffled player feathers. My concern is... unless he improves a lot this year or over the summer.... this team could be a mess mid-season 2025 regardless of talent upgrades. THAT I think is what losing cultures actually are, not organizational, but coaches setting expectations of failure.

All excellent points.

BB was going to roast you in private, but in public and to the press he always had your back. "We just have to play, coach better." That's it. There was ALWAYS a joint yet generalized accountability at work. He wasn't going to tell the press "Brady played like shit, Johnny Foxboro could have played better today." On the flip side, what's the first thing he always said after every Super Bowl win? "We have great players, all credit to the players, I'm hard on 'em but they played great and they're winners."

Mayo literally does the opposite. He pushes off responsibility for his decisions, and then implies player mistakes ("I can't do anything once they're between the white lines.") THIS is the real danger of letting Mayo continue to mess up this rebuild.

 

[BigSoxFan]

All excellent points.

BB was going to roast you in private, but in public and to the press he always had your back. "We just have to play, coach better." That's it. There was ALWAYS a joint yet generalized accountability at work. He wasn't going to tell the press "Brady played like shit, Johnny Foxboro could have played better today." On the flip side, what's the first thing he always said after every Super Bowl win? "We have great players, all credit to the players, I'm hard on 'em but they played great and they're winners."

Mayo literally does the opposite. He pushes off responsibility for his decisions, and then implies player mistakes ("I can't do anything once they're between the white lines.") THIS is the real danger of letting Mayo continue to mess up this rebuild.

Since Day 1, he has given the impression that he is wholly unqualified for the position he is now in. Most people in this situation succeed when they demonstrate the humility and accountability needed to figure out what they don’t know or need to improve on.

Mayo’s general defensiveness and finger pointing leads me to believe that he is buckling under the pressure.

I am in no position to judge his football acumen but his behavior and lack of composure is there for all to see. He really sucks at most of his job.

 

[Red Averages]

Personally I disagree with the losing as much as possible angle. In a best case scenario world (from a wins perspective), the Pats could have beaten Seattle, Miami (first game), Tennessee, and Indy. You're telling me that you wouldn't feel better about their future sitting at 7-6 than where we are today at 3-10?

It would not. If the Pats finished the season 7-10 and picked 14th that is far worse than finishing 3-14 and picking 1st. Josh Allen won 5 games his first year. Joe Burrow won 2, then drafted Chase and went to a Super Bowl in year 2. I don't need to feel "better" about their future based on their win-loss record in 2024. I don't care about the players "learning to win" whatever that means. You can see countless teams that have gone from very low win totals to legit contenders due to acquiring talent and maximizing their rookie QB contract years. Show me evidence of players "learning to win". The Jags went 3-14 with Lawrence, then 9-8. I suppose they "learned to win" after that 2nd season? They are 10-18 since then. Hell a majority of these players won't even be here in 2-3 years after all that learning to win (or lose).

 

[NextBigThing8184]

It would not. If the Pats finished the season 7-10 and picked 14th that is far worse than finishing 3-14 and picking 1st. Josh Allen won 5 games his first year. Joe Burrow won 2, then drafted Chase and went to a Super Bowl in year 2. I don't need to feel "better" about their future based on their win-loss record in 2024. I don't care about the players "learning to win" whatever that means. You can see countless teams that have gone from very low win totals to legit contenders due to acquiring talent and maximizing their rookie QB contract years. Show me evidence of players "learning to win". The Jags went 3-14 with Lawrence, then 9-8. I suppose they "learned to win" after that 2nd season? They are 10-18 since then. Hell a majority of these players won't even be here in 2-3 years after all that learning to win (or lose).

this is exactly right. The only proven way to get your franchise out of the toilet is to improve the talent on the roster and find the right group (coaches and front office) to run the team. Best way to improve talent is to draft as high as possible

Of course, as the Lions showed us, simply drafting high every year doesn’t matter if you have the wrong guys making the picks and developing the players - which is the big problem the Pats have currently.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

DVOA, as of this morning, has the Pats dead fucking last in the NFL.

There has been no progress made from last year, even with the new franchise QB.

 

[BaseballJones]

DVOA, as of this morning, has the Pats dead fucking last in the NFL.

There has been no progress made from last year, even with the new franchise QB.

Using PFR's SRS score...

2023:
SRS: -7.9 (#29)
OSRS: -8.5 (#32)
DSRS: +0.6 (#14)

2024:
SRS: -8.8 (#31)
OSRS: -6.7 (#31)
DSRS: -2.1 (#25)

So a slight improvement by the offense (much more so in just the Maye games) but a drastic cratering by the defense.

 

[Cellar-Door]

DVOA, as of this morning, has the Pats dead fucking last in the NFL.

There has been no progress made from last year, even with the new franchise QB.

Hey hey... the ST is up to 13th from 28th...

Of course the offense went from 29th to 31st and the defense went from 9th to 31st.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Hey hey... the ST is up to 13th from 28th...

Of course the offense went from 29th to 31st and the defense went from 9th to 31st.

The defensive collapse under a defensive-minded head coach is galling as hell.

 

[BaseballJones]

The defensive collapse under a defensive-minded head coach is galling as hell.

To me, this is by FAR the worst aspect of this season. Nothing else is even close. If the D was playing even close to how they performed last year, we'd be looking at a pretty decent team right now.

 

[tims4wins]

The defensive collapse under a defensive-minded head coach is galling as hell.

He's certainly defensive.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

To me, this is by FAR the worst aspect of this season. Nothing else is even close. If the D was playing even close to how they performed last year, we'd be looking at a pretty decent team right now.

I think that was the hope, that the D would remain very good, they'd get a real QB in there and the results would follow.

But they didn't take into account gross coaching incompetence by Mayo and Covington.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think that was the hope, that the D would remain very good, they'd get a real QB in there and the results would follow.

But they didn't take into account gross coaching incompetence by Mayo and Covington.

Or maybe it was that BB really was an incredible coach and actually got the most out of his players.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Or maybe it was that BB really was an incredible coach and actually got the most out of his players.

The defense was playing its collective ass off last season in the face of incredible adversity because the offense was led by Mac and Zappe. That alone should have been reason enough to keep BB here. But I digress.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

The defense was playing its collective ass off last season in the face of incredible adversity because the offense was led by Mac and Zappe. That alone should have been reason enough to keep BB here. But I digress.

Honest question: we pretty much know BB would not have drafted Maye, and BB the GM is much more responsible at this point for the glaring lack of talent all over the roster than Wolfe. There was no real way of keeping the coach without the GM. Seeing what we've seen from Maye so far, and the fact that he's 22 and BB is 72 and unlikely to be coaching more than a couple of more years, would you really make that trade?

Mayo sucks but if getting rid of Bill was the price of getting Maye I'm totally fine with BB being gone in exchange for Maye. The mistake was hiring Mayo.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Honest question: we pretty much know BB would not have drafted Maye, and BB the GM is much more responsible at this point for the glaring lack of talent all over the roster than Wolfe. There was no real way of keeping the coach without the GM. Seeing what we've seen from Maye so far, and the fact that he's 22 and BB is 72 and unlikely to be coaching more than a couple of more years, would you really make that trade?

Mayo sucks but if getting rid of Bill was the price of getting Maye I'm totally fine with BB being gone in exchange for Maye. The mistake was hiring Mayo.

I think if BB were here he takes Alt at 3 and signs a FA QB and takes another QB later in the draft.

 

[NomarsFool]

I forget when Gonzo went down last year, but I think it was pretty early in the season. Judon was out for a lot of last year, and of course he was traded this season. Barmore out for much of this year. The defense has had other issues this year with injuries and suspensions - but probably, overall, the available defensive talent this season is probably fairly similar to last year, just with poorer production. As some of the better players would be hopefully growing and getting better, it's a very disappointing regression this season.

 

[NomarsFool]

Honest question: we pretty much know BB would not have drafted Maye,

I don't think we know that. I know he has made some comments about him - but that is not the same thing.

 

[cshea]

I think if BB were here he takes Alt at 3 and signs a FA QB and takes another QB later in the draft.

And then what, they go 9-8 and get bounced in the Wild Card? The FA QB's last year were basically Russel Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields and Sam Darnold.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

And then what, they go 9-8 and get bounced in the Wild Card? The FA QB's last year were basically Russel Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields and Sam Darnold.

Since I think tanking is stupid and pointless, that's a far better outcome than what we're seeing this year.

I would guess BB would pursue Wilson of that list. Not sure, of course, just a guess.

 

[cshea]

That's fair but then you're in a never ending cycle of winning between 7 and 10 games. Playoff conender, not really a super bowl contender.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Honest question: we pretty much know BB would not have drafted Maye, and BB the GM is much more responsible at this point for the glaring lack of talent all over the roster than Wolfe. There was no real way of keeping the coach without the GM. Seeing what we've seen from Maye so far, and the fact that he's 22 and BB is 72 and unlikely to be coaching more than a couple of more years, would you really make that trade?

Mayo sucks but if getting rid of Bill was the price of getting Maye I'm totally fine with BB being gone in exchange for Maye. The mistake was hiring Mayo.

So I would not at all say that we know that. People have interpreted some of his comments about Maye to mean that, but others have said they think he would have taken him (Saban notably who said it BEFORE Maye started and played well).

Personally I think Bill would have traded down to stock up on picks, but we'll never know.

Overall though... Bill likely had to go because he was struggling with personnel decisions which he papered over for a while by being the best defensive coach the league has seen, but you can only ride that rail so long.

 

[BaseballJones]

At least there's this from one ESPN writer:

"Christian Gonzalez, CB, New England Patriots: I think Gonzalez has been the second-best corner in the NFL this season behind only Pat Surtain IIand should be an All-Pro. If you made me choose one corner with whom to start a team between Gonzalez, Derek Stingley Jr. and Sauce Gardner, I really think I'd take Gonzo. He's amazing."


Here's his 2024 stats:

74 targets, 42 completions (56.8%), 439 yds, 10.5 yds/comp, 2 td, 2 int, 71.8 rating

Contrast that to others:

Gonzalez: 74 targets, 42 completions (56.8%), 439 yds, 5.9 yds/tgt, 2 td, 2 int, 71.8 rating
Surtain: 39 targets, 23 completions (59.0%), 184 yds, 4.7 yds/tgt, 1 td, 3 int, 47.4 rating
Gardner: 42 targets, 27 completions (64.3%), 468 yds, 11.1 yds/tgt, 1 td, 0 int, 110.0 rating
Stingley: 65 targets, 31 completions (47.7%), 323 yds, 5.0 yds/tgt, 2 td, 3 int, 53.6 rating
Diggs: 45 targets, 26 completions (57.8%), 324 yds, 7.2 yds/tgt, 3 td, 2 int, 83.9 rating
Ramsey: 47 targets, 30 completions (63.8%), 272 yds, 5.9 yds/tgt, 2 td, 2 int, 75.8 rating

 

[FL4WL3SS]

The defense was playing its collective ass off last season in the face of incredible adversity because the offense was led by Mac and Zappe. That alone should have been reason enough to keep BB here. But I digress.

Amen

 

[rodderick]

Since I think tanking is stupid and pointless, that's a far better outcome than what we're seeing this year.

I would guess BB would pursue Wilson of that list. Not sure, of course, just a guess.

No way in hell. Having Drake Maye and finding out he's pretty much already good out of the gate is way more valuable than being mediocre for 2-3 years with a veteran QB. Not even close. Either way they wouldn't have the talent to truly contend.

 

[BaseballJones]

The absolute most important thing this year for this franchise was to find out if Drake Maye can be the MAN. Everything else - winning, learning about Mayo, fixing the OL, you name it - is a distant second or third (or lower).

And it sure appears that they found out that he is, in fact, that guy. So this season is a rousing success. It really is.

 

[tims4wins]

The absolute most important thing this year for this franchise was to find out if Drake Maye can be the MAN. Everything else - winning, learning about Mayo, fixing the OL, you name it - is a distant second or third (or lower).

And it sure appears that they found out that he is, in fact, that guy. So this season is a rousing success. It really is.

Correct.

However... we still exit the season not knowing if we have a competent coaching staff and/or GM, which is problematic (early returns on both are poor, although I think we have to give positive returns to the offensive staff given Maye's development/performance).

 

[BaseballJones]

Correct.

However... we still exit the season not knowing if we have a competent coaching staff and/or GM, which is problematic (early returns on both are poor, although I think we have to give positive returns to the offensive staff given Maye's development/performance).

Agree that this is problematic. But theoretically they'll keep Maye for the next 15 years. Little chance, even if Mayo turns out to be good, that he'd stick around that long. So Maye is by far the more important piece here.

In order to achieve massive levels of success, they'll need both. But they could go three years and switch to a better coach and still be ok. Maye would just be 25 at that point and still on his rookie deal.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

So I would not at all say that we know that. People have interpreted some of his comments about Maye to mean that, but others have said they think he would have taken him (Saban notably who said it BEFORE Maye started and played well).

Personally I think Bill would have traded down to stock up on picks, but we'll never know.

Overall though... Bill likely had to go because he was struggling with personnel decisions which he papered over for a while by being the best defensive coach the league has seen, but you can only ride that rail so long.

Yes of course we don't know for absolute sure he wouldn't have taken him. But (a) the comments weren't the kind of comments that one would make about a guy who you would be willing to invest the 3rd overall pick into, and (b) I agree with you that based on his past history and the many positions of need on the roster (which is of course his own fault) he would have traded down and stocked up on picks. I think it is reasonable to believe that they don't have Maye right now if BB stayed.

Regardless I agree with the bolded.

 

[BigJimEd]

I don't think we know that. I know he has made some comments about him - but that is not the same thing.

This. It is massive leap to make any definitive statement of what Belichick might have done. People want to fit a narrative I guess.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Assuming this is based on robust inputs, its hard to argue that the 2024 Patriots are underperforming their talent. Those arguments are made here, each and every day and manufacturing seems to be ramping up. But they hard to buy when you look at the data.

This roster is terrible and most of these players won't be here in a few seasons.

I honestly don't have a great sense for the input to that chart. I'm an advanced stat learner, not a master. So I find them interesting, but am cautious about over-interpreting.

The chart below, for example, showing just the last four weeks made me go "Hmmmmm..."

(My guess is that the defensive number benefits from the beat-down of the Bears, Gonzo's pick 6, and maybe a few other things)

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I honestly don't have a great sense for the input to that chart. I'm an advanced stat learner, not a master. So I find them interesting, but am cautious about over-interpreting.

The chart below, for example, showing just the last four weeks made me go "Hmmmmm..."

(My guess is that the defensive number benefits from the beat-down of the Bears, Gonzo's pick 6, and maybe a few other things)

I am looking at a range of stats and not relying on just stuff like this. And they tell me this team is objectively pretty bad overall.

I just don't know how you can evaluate coaching when the roster is filled with players who struggle to execute their roles. They lack talent at just about every key position save for QB and CB. It feels like an impossible ask to win consistently n the NFL like that, even if your coach is the love child of BB, Lombardi, Walsh and Mike Vrabel.

In short, the roster is bereft of talent and while their coaching room may be too, I don't know how anyone can argue that definitively given what we have seen.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

I am looking at a range of stats and not relying on just stuff like this. And they tell me this team is objectively pretty bad overall.

I just don't know how you can evaluate coaching when the roster is filled with players who struggle to execute their roles. They lack talent at just about every key position save for QB and CB. It feels like an impossible ask to win consistently n the NFL like that, even if your coach is the love child of BB, Lombardi, Walsh and Mike Vrabel.

In short, the roster is bereft of talent and while their coaching room may be too, I don't know how anyone can argue that definitively given what we have seen.

That makes me shudder, thinking of having Tavai or Elliss having to cover people 25-30 yards down field. The players aren't being put in good positions, and they aren't good enough to overcome that.