I didn't mean to come across as doubting/disputing your overall point. More of a "state of the OL". Like the 3rd and 1 last week where MO missed the check at the line, leading to a 4 yard loss on a handoff.
Are the Pats the worst team in the NFL?
- Thread starter ShaneTrot
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Sure, but again, I want to see Mayo aggressively pursue wins. He simply does not.
Right. The point is that a "losing culture" is solved by.....getting good players (and coaches).
It's literally the opposite. By going for it, you're telling the offense you're playing to win and you trust them. And you're simultaneously telling your defense you trust them, too, in case going for it fails and the other team has a short field.
Teams that play to lose lose.
I'd say you can make arguments both ways and the binary stuff is pretty silly. If you are in a close game and you punt you are trusting your defense to keep the offense pinned and win the field position battle even on a day where the offense isn't moving the ball with chunks. Then you can get the ball back around where you had it and get into scoring range with a play or two, or get a shot at a big PR. If you go for it and fail and give them a short field, yeah you are showing confidence in them but it's likely somewhat discouraging for the defense to allow like one first down and have the offense in FG range. Similarly if you are aggressive and fail because you're offensive line sucks and the playcall you had gets blown up or your rookie WR drops a pass, I don't think the offense would be full of morale the next series when the same linemen and WRs are out there.
Teams that have bad players lose.
Defensive coaches always believe they can stop the other team but hate to have to defend a short field. So they punt, play the clock, and dare the offense to make enough plays to beat them. If you play out the last 5 minutes of the Indy game, I bet the Pats win 6-7 times out of 10. Richardson is too unreliable as a passer. Give Indy credit, they got it done.
Lazar said the Pats are dead last in defensive DVOA since Drake became the starter. Is that true?
Lazar said the Pats are dead last in defensive DVOA since Drake became the starter. Is that true?
Surely the point isn't less about being aggressive because of whatever signals you think it sends, and more about being aggressive because that's simply the mathematically better play?
If an average team wins 8.5 games per year and a good (very good?) team wins 10.5 games per year, and you can gain a win a year by making optimally aggressive calls, you're halfway to being good without having done any of those pesky other things like trying to find good players.
If an average team wins 8.5 games per year and a good (very good?) team wins 10.5 games per year, and you can gain a win a year by making optimally aggressive calls, you're halfway to being good without having done any of those pesky other things like trying to find good players.
"Optimally aggressive" is a lot different than aggressive. I'm sure no one is doubting that going for it when the odds say you should is a problem. A bad team should play to win using same odds as a good team. The constant taunt at losing teams -- "what do they have to lose:...go for it and show some confidence" -- has always struck me as the stupidest thing. Being aggressive just to be aggressive is just as dumb as being afraid to be aggressive.
2% the former and 98% the latter.
Bad teams need to add variance because on average they’re going to lose (that’s why they’re “bad teams”).
A reminder that we had the greatest coach of all time and won four games last year. It's about players, first, and then good coaches directly then sagaciously.
Remind me of when Homer Simpson got those vocabulary tapes instead of weight loss tapes.
Lamentably, no. My gastronomic rapacity knows no satiety.
Let's take a different view of this question.
As of now (Week 14) there are 8 teams with either 2 or 3 wins on the year:
In my view, it has to be the Pats (Maye) or Jaguars (Lawrence), because they have a QB they can build around - none of the other teams do.
One or two of them might draft a QB they can build around, but no guarantees and it won't be possible to say which one.
This is going to be a factor in the Pats rebuild that could affect free agent signings, coaching hires, etc.
As of now (Week 14) there are 8 teams with either 2 or 3 wins on the year:
- 2 wins: Raiders, Giants
- 3 wins: Pats, Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Panthers
In my view, it has to be the Pats (Maye) or Jaguars (Lawrence), because they have a QB they can build around - none of the other teams do.
One or two of them might draft a QB they can build around, but no guarantees and it won't be possible to say which one.
This is going to be a factor in the Pats rebuild that could affect free agent signings, coaching hires, etc.
I would take the Pats, but I would flip Jax and Carolina. I honestly would rather have Bryce Young at this point than Trevor Lawrence.
Young's redemption so far has been great to see. Everyone thought he was done.
Lawrence is headed in the other direction.
If Leggette held onto that ball, Young would be the top story today. As much as they may have found their QB in him, it looks like they found their HC in Canales. So I would flip Jax and Carolina as well.
I’ll admit to not seeing Carolina yesterday. I’ll also acknowledge that Young has been better of late.
With those qualifiers out of the way-
Young’s stats are pretty poor even lately. He’s consistently below 7 y/a, his qbr and rating are both low. If you compare him to Maye or Lawrence, he’s worse than both even with this latest play.
Young, 1 of his past 5 starts had an average of more than 7 yards per attempt with a 82 rating. He has a 74 rating and 26 QBR on the year, so better but still bad.
Lawrence (minus his last start due to duration), 3 of his past 5 starts he averaged more than 7 yards per attempt with a 95 rating. He has a 85 rating and 60 QBR on the year.
Maye, 3 out of 5 with more than 7 yards per attempt and an 84 rating. 87 rating and 53 QBR on the year.
Edit- for Reference
Rating league average is 92 in 2024
QBR is (about) 55 in 2024.
With those qualifiers out of the way-
Young’s stats are pretty poor even lately. He’s consistently below 7 y/a, his qbr and rating are both low. If you compare him to Maye or Lawrence, he’s worse than both even with this latest play.
Young, 1 of his past 5 starts had an average of more than 7 yards per attempt with a 82 rating. He has a 74 rating and 26 QBR on the year, so better but still bad.
Lawrence (minus his last start due to duration), 3 of his past 5 starts he averaged more than 7 yards per attempt with a 95 rating. He has a 85 rating and 60 QBR on the year.
Maye, 3 out of 5 with more than 7 yards per attempt and an 84 rating. 87 rating and 53 QBR on the year.
Edit- for Reference
Rating league average is 92 in 2024
QBR is (about) 55 in 2024.
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There's zero question that they're the worst team in the league and much, much worse than last year.
The DVOA after this game will be very, very ugly.
The DVOA after this game will be very, very ugly.
Vrabel is not a good coach.
edit; he’s better than Mayo but his offenses and defense are basically always bottom 3rd of the league
edit; he’s better than Mayo but his offenses and defense are basically always bottom 3rd of the league
He took a team with Ryan fucking Tannehill to the AFC Championship game. Jerod Mayo won’t ever sniff the playoffs. He’s way fucking better than Mayo and actually runs a disciplined program.
No way. This was a 4-win team going into the year, and they probably will end up with 3 wins.
Teams with offensive lines (and wide receivers) like this don't win games. Maybe with Vrabel the defense doesn't suck as bad, but that just means they lose close games. This team is what we thought they were.
C'mon, the Tim Boyle Giants are worse than us. Maybe the Desmond Ridder at QB/Maxx Crosby out for the year Raiders are worse, but it's close. But I think that's it.
DVOA says differently. They were DFL last week and this week will lower the number even more.
I guess I missed when that became the gospel. Didn't DVOA say the Ravens were unbeatable last year? Like historically great.
In general it is. It's a damn good indicator of the overall quality of a team.
The Pats got destroyed today by a thoroughly mediocre 6-7 club.
The Giants got destroyed by an, at the time, 5-6 Bucs teams missing some of its best players a few weeks ago. Don't underestimate how bad they are. And they do not have their QB of the future on their roster.
Vrabel may be good but there was chatter that he lost the lockerroom as well as ownership in Tenn.
And I don't see any coach getting six or seven wins out of this team. Aside from Maye, Gonzo and a few others, most of these guys are, at best backups or third stringers.
Perhaps there are a lot of skill players there who haven't been allowed to show their skills. But we would have seen at least some flashes.
This roster is putrid.
DVOA is such a good indicator that the website folded...
I don't think it matters much if they are worst or third worst, really. When teams are this bad it is very hard to tell since the players and coaches aren't necessarily putting their best out there every week (yeah they're trying but they're not necessarily going to push injuries or bring out their best plays, and might give depth on the roster more pt to see what they have, etc).
I don't think it matters much if they are worst or third worst, really. When teams are this bad it is very hard to tell since the players and coaches aren't necessarily putting their best out there every week (yeah they're trying but they're not necessarily going to push injuries or bring out their best plays, and might give depth on the roster more pt to see what they have, etc).
DVOA is still in use and published elsewhere. FO folded because they got bought by a venture capital group, like Deadspin did.
Vrabel is an excellent in game strategist/manager. Can you imagine Mayo in a million years pulling off the stuff Vrabel did against Bill in the 2019 playoffs? I would swap out Mayo for Vrabel in a heartbeat.
I'll agree he needs talent and good coordinators, particularly on offense, to truly succeed, but I also think he knows that and will make sure he does when he takes his next job.
Vrabel is a good coach who needs someone to run offense for him, and is gonna fight with the front office... He's going to end up with the Jets with Robinson as his GM again is my guess
I would take that duo here over the incumbents. I could also see them in NY. Wasn't his beef with the front office primarily over the AJ Brown trade? If so, maybe not so bad he got into a fight.
I’d hate to see Vrabel with the Jets if he had a good OC. They have the pieces in place for that to work pretty well
After this season, the Pats should cut everybody except Maye, Gonzalez, and Stevenson. Nobody else has any value.
Everyone else is replaceable as a FA. On to 2025.
Everyone else is replaceable as a FA. On to 2025.
No that was under Robinson and he was unhappy, his beef with the owner was he wanted to pick the replacement when she fired Robinson... She said no then he was basically an asshole until he got fired because he didn't get his way.
I don't think we can say the team is better than last year. The fact that you're winning less and in more embarrassing fashion with a good QB is all the more embarrassing.
It's basically the same team but with a worse head coach and a better quarterback.
I think it’s just as embarrassing which still sucks.
I also think this is a worse collection of talent.
The Wolf is at the door…coaches better rent.
That post you quoted was from July 1st!
The team ended up much worse than last year. The records and point differentials won't be that different but by DVOA they had a huge drop from a poor-but-not-awful -15.8% to a current absolutely terrible -36.1%. DVOA isn't the be all and end all but it arguably gives a better aggregate assessment of overall performance than record or point differential.
Just to put that number in context:
-While there are currently two teams (CLE, CAR) a bit worse than the Patriots in DVOA this season, all three are worse than any other team in the NFL in the last five years.
-Its hard to access historical DVOA numbers after Football Reference fell apart but they did an article a few years back on the 20 worst DVOA teams of all time (going back to 1990) and the 20th worst was around -38%. The Patriots are not far off that list.
They're not having a run-of-the-mill bad season, this is truly terrible football we're witnessing.
This season has been horrible in all three phases of running a football team-
Coaching- managing the gameday decisions
GMing- managing the team’s roster
Ownership- choosing the right GM or Coach to maximize your team’s performance
The Patriots used to get good coaching but their player development system has been broken for literally years now.
Back on topic with *data*, they may not be the worst but they are absolutely putrid by any measure. Maybe there is a five or six win team here but someone is going to need to show significant evidence that they have left a lot of wins on the table.
As a side note, I know the Bears are perceived to be the better situation than NE given the structure around the team but I am not so sure. That front office has some hair. Also, Williams isn't exactly having an easy time adapting to the NFL. I know the Pats are doomed but if a HC was choosing between open roles in Chicago or NE, I don't think the Bears would be the layup some here are suggesting.
As a side note, I know the Bears are perceived to be the better situation than NE given the structure around the team but I am not so sure. That front office has some hair. Also, Williams isn't exactly having an easy time adapting to the NFL. I know the Pats are doomed but if a HC was choosing between open roles in Chicago or NE, I don't think the Bears would be the layup some here are suggesting.
DVOA has them 30th this week, with CAR and CLE ranked lower, but the Pats have the same DVOA as CLE. (-36.1%, with CAR at -37.2%).
But as DeJesus pointed out, they don't do anything well.
But as DeJesus pointed out, they don't do anything well.
But but but Caleb went ANOTHER week without throwing an INT! He's going to be a stud!
