Only way we’re beating Jacksonville is if Mac Jones plays the whole game at QB for Jacksonville (possible but not probable)
Are the Pats the worst team in the NFL?
- Thread starter ShaneTrot
- Start date
The defense was legitimately good last year with horrible field position. Judon played 3+ games. I don’t think he’s a huge loss. Barmore is another story but most of the personnel and coaching is the same.
Projecting two or three wins for the Patriots seems reactionary from my seat even with Barmore out for an unspecified amount of time. They played 75% of last season without Judon and the defense was still great despite the offense putting them in putrid positions the whole year. They're getting Gonzo and Marcus Jones back, Mac Jones is gone, JJSS is gone, I think they hit on Polk and Baker.
Also opposing teams are going to have injuries, draft picks bust, FA signings not work, you name it. There are teams which look good on paper right now which won't turn out to be such by week four let alone the end of the season.
Also opposing teams are going to have injuries, draft picks bust, FA signings not work, you name it. There are teams which look good on paper right now which won't turn out to be such by week four let alone the end of the season.
They’re also much worse/shallower on S without Philips, Mills and Davis and also lost Guy and Mack Truck
It was fine without Judon and it's #1 corner last year, we don't know how long Barmore will be out, or what impact the coaching will have (they kept a lot of the previous staff, I know everyone thinks Bill is magic, but I think those guys probably know some things). If they had Judon and Barmore we'd be talking top 10, as it is.... better than a lot of teams is a nice place to start from.
It doesn't matter. Teams beat better teams all year. Even last year, Patriots beat two playoff teams, lost to 2 bottom 6 teams,
We'll probably get between 1 and 4 teams without their starting QB as well. We also have an excellent net rest schedule, which has been a positive for teams in the past.
Also... outside of the very top, way more variance than people like to admit... LAC were supposed to be a playoff contender, finished bottom 5. Jets were getting SB talk, went 7-10, lost to 2 of the bottom 5 teams.
IMO the burden of proof is on the poster to claim that the current organizational contains dysfunction on par with the Kiam, late Sullivan leadership eras. I'm not sure if people forget what an abject joke the Patriots were locally and nationally, and it wasn't just about 1 and 2-win seasons. This is not that. Clean coaching and player pro transition, decisions since then that are on par with what professional organizations do, etc.
They lost Bill but Mayo played and coached for him for years. Covington was here last year. With the exception of Barmore the starters are all returning from a year ago. There is continuity on that side of the ball.
Onwenu playing competent Tackle and the inside figuring things out I think actually could be 3-5 wins better than trotting out Vederian Lowe at Tackle every week. Vederian Lowe can literally break an entire offense.
Most of the coaching except the two most important guys are gone, a guy who has never called plays is calling plays and the other guy (Mayo) is stretched thin by virtue of being a first year head coach.
Jon Jones is a year older and there’s nobody worth much behind him (Marcus or Marco Jones I guess)
And they’re likely not going to be playing a whole slate of trash tier QB’s. Somehow i think Aaron Rodgers is going to fare a bit better than Wilson/Siemian (among others)
In all of the talk in here the focus seems to be almost entirely on the offense and the defense, but they lost 5 games last season by 6 points or less. Ryland was 16/25 on FGs and also missed 2 XP in close games. There's also no way to easily count how many times they just didn't even attempt a FG because of how bad they were nor the impact on field position of all of those misses. With a solid kicking game, they likely would have won a couple/few more games last year. Whether Slye is an improvement or not is yet to be seen, but he really couldn't possibly be worse.
Why is it an either/or? Lowe is at LT. Onwenu, if he goes back to tackle, is RT.
If Lowe can break an entire offense, then it might be broken even with Onwenu at RT.
The Pats have to hope either Wallace or Okorafor can lock down LT and it’s not looking good so far
From all reports Ryland has been better than Slye in camp though
And this team could have prime Justin Tucker and still potentially be much worse than last year’s team. Tougher schedule, new coaches, loss of talent on D, loss of talent at LT (half a season of Trent Brown is still worth something)
Good point. Special teams were a catastrophe the last couple of years. Not just the kicker, but coverage as well.
I'm just talking about the time, man. Even when the team was half decent, there was weird shit going on. Embarrassing shit. Unprofessional organizational culture stuff, terrible management. You remember, right?
It sucks that we're a bad team now. This basically happens to every org, periods of low single digit wins while team-building. That's not dysfunction. It's cyclical. The BFB Pats were an aberration.
If the team only wins 2 or 3 do the Krafts consider throwing Mayo under the bus. There's absolutely no way they'll take any responsibility.
Sure if continuity means the guy designing the game plan (BB) and calling plays (Steve) and the top DL (Barmore) and arguably best player, other key pieces in terms of snaps played (Guy, basically all of the reserve DB’s including Jackson, Mills, Bryant, Phillips)
Getting Gonzalez back is useful. Maybe it could be argued that Keion White and Marte Mapu are going to break out. Maybe Marcus Jones will too. Maybe Covington will be a great DC and play caller. Maybe maybe maybe
But I don’t actually see a lot of continuity. It’s a ton of leadership out the door and the two most influential coaches gone.
Jon Jones, Peppers, Dugger, Godchaux and Jennings are the key continuous pieces and that’s not wildly impressive
No, they’re tied to Wolf and Mayo for at least 2 years and I’m guessing Mayo will get 3
You don’t fire Bill, do no real search for a replacement, anoint in house guys as replacements and then fire them a year later.
They sink or swim with Maye and he will get 3 seasons probably
I will pencil them in for 6 wins: SEA, JAX, IND, @ARZ and LAR, and a home division win against whichever division foe has worse injury luck. I am hopeful that the London game vs. JAX will be a matchup with Old Friend Mac Jones after yet another injury to TrevLaw. Otherwise, it's 5 wins.
I mean, if you’re just going to assume the worst case scenario across the board then, yeah, whatever. They were 9th in defensive DVOA last year (accounts for the quality of opponent). They are returning 8/11 starters and the majority of the coaching staff. Subtracting the Belichick’s and Barmore isn’t going to lead them to suddenly crater down to 25th. Even accounting for a regression, they’ll still probably be an above average unit.
Unless they come out kicking ass, several teams will likely play down to them. That won't hurt.
See this part is silly.... they will be playing some trash QBs, some will happen because guys get hurt. Pre-season last year everyone said... well 6 losses in the division QBs are too good.
The Patriots played 4 games against QBs who weren't the season opening starter.... that's about average. I would expect at least 2-3 this year. I mean 2 guys on the schedule are already missing time in camp with injuries.
At Draftkings, taking the Patriots under 5.5 is -200. Carolina is -105 and Denver is -120. The Patriots are also the favorites for fewest wins, at +320. So the odds makers think they're the worst team right now.
They are probably an average to above average defense but defense fluctuates a ton year to year. It's also hard to have a good defense year to year without much of a pass rush. You can scheme stuff up but you're pretty capped at like 50-55% for twists/stunts, blitzes, sim pressures, etc. At some point your guys have to win in the traditional 1:1 fashion.
No Judon or Barmore already reduces any more margin for injuries. An average defense with a bottom 3 offense put the team in contention for worst team in the NFL. It is not looking good 8-15-2024. Things can change but right now the outlook is grimmer than it was 2 weeks ago.
No Judon or Barmore already reduces any more margin for injuries. An average defense with a bottom 3 offense put the team in contention for worst team in the NFL. It is not looking good 8-15-2024. Things can change but right now the outlook is grimmer than it was 2 weeks ago.
Its year 1 of a new regime that is starting a rebuild so i am not expecting much
I cant really fault any of the moves so far and obviously success hinges on Maye and how he develops.
Ideally if you are not one of the best teams you might as well be one of the worst teams and get the best pick possible.
Given the schedule they can hopefully achieve this and still show signs of promise such as Pop shining and Polk and or Baker making NFL plays. Maye getting to start and flashing upside. Defence remaining solid with Gonzo standing out.
If they can do that and get a top 3 pick next year that can be flipped for a QB needy team they can potentially end up with 5/6 top 100 picks next year and one of the highest cap budgets.
That is what a rebuild truely needs.
I cant really fault any of the moves so far and obviously success hinges on Maye and how he develops.
Ideally if you are not one of the best teams you might as well be one of the worst teams and get the best pick possible.
Given the schedule they can hopefully achieve this and still show signs of promise such as Pop shining and Polk and or Baker making NFL plays. Maye getting to start and flashing upside. Defence remaining solid with Gonzo standing out.
If they can do that and get a top 3 pick next year that can be flipped for a QB needy team they can potentially end up with 5/6 top 100 picks next year and one of the highest cap budgets.
That is what a rebuild truely needs.
I think most people are underestimating the downgrade from in game tactics, adjustments, and situational football we are likely going to experience with Bill gone and a rookie coach who has never head coached in the NFL or college.
This seems about right to me. Tackle is such a shithole right now that upgrading (not with any of Anderson, Okorafor etc.) there can make a huge difference. Interior line is good, receivers, TE's and RB's are good, QB is a great unknown. Defense should be solid although Barmore is a big loss. Not so worried about Judon being gone.
They are going to be really, really bad.
Really, really bad as in early 1970's Jim Plunkett running for his life/the 1990-1992/Rod "I'm proud of my men" Rust/the two year Dick Macpherson era bad.
If I squint, I can see 3 wins, maybe 4.
The biggest problem they are going to have is a revolving door at QB; someone might literally get killed behind that shitshow of an offensive line.
Really, really bad as in early 1970's Jim Plunkett running for his life/the 1990-1992/Rod "I'm proud of my men" Rust/the two year Dick Macpherson era bad.
If I squint, I can see 3 wins, maybe 4.
The biggest problem they are going to have is a revolving door at QB; someone might literally get killed behind that shitshow of an offensive line.
A team has to be epically bad to win 3 games or less. Carolina last year, for example, was epically bad in every way. And they even won 2 games.
Last year, the Pats were a mess from the top down to the 53rd man. This includes Belichick. Ergo, 4 wins. This season will be a little better. The Pats needed a refresh and they have a QB (two, actually) who won't play like they bet on the other team. I think they win 5-6 just because a couple of bounces will go their way.
I think there is a chance the Patriots have the worst record in football this year.... I don't think it's likely they'll actually be the worst team though..... perils of playing in the AFC East instead of the NFC South.
I don’t think Mayo/Covington represent a downgrade on defense. We have no idea what we have on offense. Mayo has been “coaching” since he played.
To be clear - you think Aaron Rodgers is worse or similar to Siemian/Wilson? You think they will get another stretch of Howell, Minshew, Trubisky, DeVito?
I get that guys get injured but that 6 pack of bad QB + Jimmy G and Carr is a lot worse on paper than anything they will face this year
It’s possible, sure. Unlikely they face that many outright bad QB’s
And almost none of those guys was who they were going to face on paper pre-season which is the exact point. Who knows if Rodgers is healthy for one or either game, who knows if Richardson gets hurt again, who gets hurt, who gets benched, etc. etc.
Ideally getting the #1 pick and having one of these college QB’s actually look like they’re worth a massive haul would be ideal. But both those things are unlikely as of now.
If you think it’s “silly” to think it’s likely they will face better QB in 2024 than in 2023, we’ll agree to disagree and have to see how it plays out.
He has never been the head man in charge and thus has never made the kind of calls that head coaches regularly due. It is just a fact - timeout management, challenges, deciding to go for it on 4th or not, whether to go for a FG etc.
I think it's silly to look at the NFL season and make sweeping generalizations about the performance and health of opponents (assuming health when history tells us otherwise) over 18 weeks of the season we had this exact same thing last year preseason where people said "they'll face better QBs this year they were so lucky last year".
If they stay mostly healthy, I wouldn't be shocked to see an 8 or 9 win season. It would take a bit of injury luck and the OT's to step up but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. I'll say they start out 5-8 through the bye, then go 3-1 when they turn things over to Maye during the bye week.
edit: I might as well add my predicted wins so that I can come back in January and revel in my stupidity: vsSEA vsMIA vsJAX vsNYJ @TEN @ARI vsLAC vsBUF
edit: I might as well add my predicted wins so that I can come back in January and revel in my stupidity: vsSEA vsMIA vsJAX vsNYJ @TEN @ARI vsLAC vsBUF
This is where I’m at. And to be clear, I’m not even mad about it.
I’m sure we’ll win a few games, because it’s the NFL and that’s what happens. But this team looks Gawd Awful to me. Not only is the OL going to be awful, but I don’t see how we have enough skill position talent to overcome that either. Maybe one of the rookie wideouts breaks through. And I like Pop. But aside from that it’s likely to be baaaad.
I had hope for the D, but that’s fading. I think the D could be OK, but they’re likely to be on the field a lot. I could see them keeping us close in games hen fading down the stretch.
Anyway, all I’m looking for are signs that the new staff is competent. If that happens then hopefully we make many more moves to upgrade the talent in the offseason and we start improving in 2025.
There is a big difference between being a first year head coach and an experienced hall of fame level coach lol. Mayo could be very good, but to think there wont be a lot of growing pains does not make sense to me. I made it clear I was talking about aspects of a job specifically tied to the role of head coach.
In my mind:
Bill overseeing everything on the field versus year 1 of Mayo stepping into the role for the first time in career - good chance of downgrade this year
Steve B and Mayo running D versus Covington running D - I would likely think Steve B and Mayo would have a lower risk of failing with this D since Covington is new to the role
This is not to say Mayo will be bad or that Covington will not be a good DC, but to pretend there is not a greater risk of the D falling off or of shaky head coaching this year is bizarro world to me.
Predicting wins based on upcoming schedule is fraught with pitfalls, as there are always teams that disappoint, sometimes badly so. Either due to injuries, regression, locker room or coaching issues, but there's always a slew of expected playoff teams that are watching TV come January.
OTOH, I don't expect this Patriots edition to be the one that surprises the pundits and catches some teams off guard. Yeah, there will be at least 1 unexpected victory, but I don't see them getting to 8 wins.
So, I still say the answer to the thread title is "no", but I also don't seeing them with more than 4-5 wins. A top 5 pick in the 2025 draft is likely.
OTOH, I don't expect this Patriots edition to be the one that surprises the pundits and catches some teams off guard. Yeah, there will be at least 1 unexpected victory, but I don't see them getting to 8 wins.
So, I still say the answer to the thread title is "no", but I also don't seeing them with more than 4-5 wins. A top 5 pick in the 2025 draft is likely.
I had hope for the D as well, but with their best edge rusher gone and their best interior lineman out due to blood clots, my hope is fading as well.
I'm not mad about it either, nothing lasts forever, we were witness to a historic 19 year run, considering where this franchise came from, it was a blessing for me and thousands of other life long Patriots fans who suffered from the mid to late 1960's through 2000.
They whiffed on the QB with Jones and have to start all over again, this in the end will be a 5 to 7 year rebuild which started in truth in 2020.
I thought maybe they could do it on the fly up until the bye week in 2021, but the wheels came off and never came back on.
From everything I am hearing, they will have a shit ton of cap room in 2025, we'll see how they use it and how they draft if they land at the top or so in each round.
This year is going to be painful, but it is what it is.
Flags fly forever.
I understood your initial post. I don’t see in game situations being over Mayos head. I don’t think he’s unprepared for whatever he needs to be in control of. By all accounts he’s as big of a student of the game as Bill. The defense will be coached as well as it has for the last few years. If you’ve been happy with how milquetoast the overall decision making was with recent Bill than I guess you’re free to question the unknown. I’m excited to see something different and with the people Mayo has around him I don’t see there being a drop off. He has input coming from a lot of smart people and I honestly think he’ll be more open to taking others advice than Bill was.