Are you worried about the Red Sox?

Well, are you

  • 1. Not at All worried

  • 2. Just a tiny bit

  • 3. Getting there

  • 4. It's appropriate to be concerned

  • 5. Depends on the last bit of news I got

  • 6. Yeah, I'm worried

  • 7. Who needs fingernails?

  • 8. I am staying away from chicken and beer

  • 9. Fuck Bucky Dent and Aaron Boone

  • 10. Kill me now.


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shepard50

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Nov 18, 2006
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FiveThirtyEight has the Red Sox at 91% to win the division. Fangraphs has them at 88%. Barring a complete disaster the Sox will win the division and finish with the best record in baseball. However, a couple things I am concerned about:

1) How Chris Sale will look/hold up going forward
2) The bullpen in a tight game in the playoffs

Have to take care of business this week. 5-1 minimum. 4-2 would be disappointing, 3-3 or worse and things are really going to get tight. Also need Mookie Betts to get going.
I feel OK. and I am also worried. I was confident in 2011. I remember arguing with Frisbeterian in Chat (dumb idea) at the end of August that there was no way we would blow a 9 game WC lead. Fangraphs had us that night at about 96% to go to the postseason. Being not as clever as Fris, this was the basis of my argument that there was no need to worry.

Boy was I wrong. 2011:



This team is better than that team.

But I am a Red Sox fan since 1974 so I will always worry until the last out, just like I will always believe we have a chance until the last out.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
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Jul 15, 2005
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I feel OK. and I am also worried. I was confident in 2011. I remember arguing with Frisbeterian in Chat (dumb idea) at the end of August that there was no way we would blow a 9 game WC lead. Fangraphs had us that night at about 96% to go to the postseason. Being not as clever as Fris, this was the basis of my argument that there was no need to worry.

Boy was I wrong. 2011:



This team is better than that team.

But I am a Red Sox fan since 1974 so I will always worry until the last out, just like I will always believe we have a chance until the last out.
Crazy thing is, under today’s rules, the only thing that would’ve changed as a result of that collapse was the location of the wild card game.
 

geoduck no quahog

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It took 16 days for the Red Sox to gain 5.5 games (and their biggest lead) on the Yankees. There's a little over twice that many days remaining with a 6 game lead. Anything that comes around can go around.

It's simple. The Red Sox have to play well and win so that whatever the Yankees do is meaningless. That means the bullpen has to not walk people and stop giving up runs. That means everyone stays or gets healthy and these surprising mini-slumps end (which they will). It means that Rodriguez and maybe Wright contribute since the corpse of Pomeranz seems buried.

No more help is coming through that door. The rotation needs to step up because the bullpen is what it is (stats seem to lie). Nunez, Bradley and Kinsler need to play (or keep playing) to their ability. Swihart should hopefully demonstrate why he's considered a stud and Devers has to stop booting the ball and striking out.

Since not all of that needs to happen at the same time - I'm still comfortable with holding the lead. It's the playoff bullpen that scares the living daylights out of me.
 

strek1

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Jun 13, 2006
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1

Team is too good. Pitching is too good. They ran into a hot team and the Sox weren't hitting - It happens. Lead will go back up.
 

Byrdbrain

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Jul 18, 2005
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I'll put it at a 2.
I generally don't worry about baseball teams because I'm an adult and I have actual real things to worry about but sure there is a tiny bit of concern over the last few days about what we've seen on the field.
If it keeps going over the next week or so then it will ratchet up a smidge but lets be real even the best teams have issues over a week or two during a long season. We've just been so spoiled this year to not have anything like that happen until now.
 
Jul 5, 2018
430
I was around in 1978 and this isn't the same thing. The Sox lost everything in the division playoff. Everything.

If the Yankees run them down, and although it would kind of suck, they still would have a shot at the playoffs.
 

sean1562

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Nothing like a MFY loss to change my 4 to a 3
This. It sucks when we get swept and the Yankees beat up on shitty teams. But they just lost to the White Sox, who we play soon, and they are not going to win every single game they play. Andujar will cool down and Sale/ERod will return to anchor our rotation. Betts will heat up again and we will be the team we have been all year long.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Red Sox have 30 games left. Yankees have 31 games left.

Sox 90-42
Yanks 83-48 6.5 GB, 6 in loss column

if we keep being flat and go 15-15, we go 105-57. the Yanks would have to go 22-9 to tie us.

so really, just don't have an extended below .500 streak and the Yanks would have to have a torrid stretch (which they are capable of doing). Get closer to 108-110 and it's more impossible for them.
 

Idabomb333

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Feb 5, 2007
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Voted 3 because I meant 2 and I love the number 3.

The talk about the Yankees also being very good in a year when the Sox are this good got me wondering whether I would prefer this over the Yankees ending in 3rd or 4th place in the East while the Sox are this good. I'm not sure. I don't like the fact that even though the Sox have the best record in baseball by a significant margin, they still have a reasonable shot at losing the division to the Yankees. On the other hand, I'm very glad the Sox are keeping the Yankees from having the best record in baseball, and are good enough to sweep that good Yankees team for 4 games.

I decided I like this better, in part because we have the amazingly bad Orioles to laugh at, and some exciting competition. If the Yankees end up losing the wild card game while the Sox win rings, this season is basically ideal. If instead the wild card Yankees beat the Sox in the ALDS, I'll change my overall take on this very quickly.
 

BoSoxLady

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1. They’ll be fine. First slump. See how they handle pressure.
 

rhswanzey

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I feel like one thing that hasn't been mentioned yet, that both Tim and Joe were astute about on the radio, was the recent schedule the Sox played prior to this mini-swoon (sic: we're bitching about a 4-6 stretch during a historically great season?? Nice luxury. Second opponent sweep all season, in late August, with the best record in baseball. My violin!)

So, keep in mind, as recently as three weeks ago, the Sox were winning stupid games they shouldn't have. The portion of the schedule I want to highlight is what happened immediately after the 19-12 grind-it-out slugfest win over Baltimore August 10th. Yeah, of course, it's the Orioles post trade deadline, and the pitching staff is especially weak, but nonetheless, what kind of win expectancy do teams have when their starting pitcher gets eight outs while giving up eight runs, or down five with eighteen outs left to use?

They used six relievers, and five threw 14+ pitches, three threw 20+.

Then, they played a day-night road doubleheader. And, surprisingly (at least to me), they didn't farm out for a second fresh reliever, opting to only add Cuevas as the 26th player. They won both those games. They used three relievers in the first game and six in the second. They used Cuevas in the nightcap, up three in the 8th.

Then, they played a day game after this, again without making roster moves - this was the last Sale start, and they still had to get 12 outs from the bullpen despite all the K's and apparent dominance. Makes you wonder if they saw this as the only super important part of the schedule across the remainder of August after how they started the month (explains the return to the DL right after, doesn't it?)

So I'm not specifically pointing out the bullpen as a culprit, I'm just saying imagine what that was like for the position players, if not the pitching staff itself. Also, note we didn't get Swihart back until the Philly 2-game set, so Sandy was ridden very hard. And the pitch counts for these days were kind of high stress.

Pitcher - TU 8/7 - W 8/8 - TH 8/9 -F 8/10 - SA 8/11 (DH) - SU 8/12 (day)
Workman - 16 - x - 10 - 24 - 21 - x
Pomeranz - 84 - x - x - 20 - 30 - x
Hembree - 3 - x - x - 27 - 20 - x
Brasier - x - 17 - x - 8 - 13 - 9
Barnes - 19 - x - x - 14 - 13 - 20
Kelly - 16 - 16 - x - 16 - 22 - x
Thornburg - 17 - x - 24 - x - 13 - 24
Kimbrel - 22 - x - x - x - 21 - 25
B. Johnson - x - 98 - x - x - x - 16
Velazquez - x - x - 25 - x - 41 - x
Cuevas - avail. 8/11 only, got eighth inning of 6-3 lead - that alone tells you something

Some things stand out here:

* Workman, Brasier and Kelly all got used on four of five days in a row.
* Workman, Brasier and Barnes all pitched three days in a row.
* Thornburg was used three of four days in a row (so was Kimbrel, used to lock down 2-1 win G1 in Philly the following TU).
* Pomeranz threw 50 pitches on back-to-back days, beginning the stretch on two days rest from an 84 pitch start.
* Velazquez starting the second game of DH was aggressive, as he threw 41 pitches on 1 day rest after throwing 25 in relief on Thursday.
* Perhaps less egregiously, Johnson was used on three days rest after throwing 98 in his Wednesday start.

We cheated with the 5th starters to get through that stretch. We also went 6-1 across that 7 game / 6 day stretch, which is just very, very good, regardless of opponent.

Then you go right into a funky day off/2 game road series (which OF/DH do you sit?)/day off and the 4-6 we just had, against two above .500 teams. I think we're doing just fine. Guys are just either pretty tired or out of rhythm from a weird schedule setup. We would've weathered this fine if we had randoms like Travis, Wright, Poyner, Lin, etc. up here right now. They'll be fine, cool ya jets.
 

Wake49

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Tell you what, if the MFY keep dropping games to teams like the White Sox, that’ll make me feel more confident.
 

JimD

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It was a bummer watching the lead shrink so quickly (after staying at 9.5 in the first two weeks after the sweep of NY), but I felt a little better after reading this from Sean McAdam:

No team — none — goes through an entire season without encountering a few speed bumps. The wonder is that it took this long for a stretch like this to arrive.

It’s interesting that the Sox’ skid has happened at almost exactly the same time as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ cooldown took place last year — in the final 10 days of August. The Dodgers saw the bottom fall out for a period of a few weeks late last August and into September, rebounded to clinch the division with ease and got all the way to Game 7 of the World Series before their season ended.

Same thing with the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who won a record 116 regular season games. They dropped seven of 11 in June and five of nine in the waning days of the season. And the vaunted 1998 Yankees, winners of 114 games? They dropped six-of-eight in the second half of August, too.
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2018/08/26/mcadam-three-thoughts-worst-week-2018-red-sox-season/

What will matter to me is how the Sox look this week - if the pitching stabilizes and the offense gets out of its recent funk, we should see a return of the machine that can win four or five games without too much fuss. I voted '2' but my level of concern will increase if they need some ridiculous heroics to win games against mediocre opponents.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
5.5 game lead on 7/28;
6.5 game lead on 8/28.
Yes, but that's not how Sox fan brain works.

Put it in the microcosm. Let's say the Sox are leading by a run in the 6th.

Then, in the 7th, they score 7 runs to go up by 8.

Then, in the 8th, the opponent scores 6 runs to cut the lead to 2 heading into the 9th.

Logically, you should feel better now than you did at the end of the 6th. Your lead is larger, and your opponent has less time to make it up. Do you in fact feel better?

If the answer is "yes", you do not have Sox fan brain.
 

dcmissle

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It was a bummer watching the lead shrink so quickly (after staying at 9.5 in the first two weeks after the sweep of NY), but I felt a little better after reading this from Sean McAdam:



https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2018/08/26/mcadam-three-thoughts-worst-week-2018-red-sox-season/

What will matter to me is how the Sox look this week - if the pitching stabilizes and the offense gets out of its recent funk, we should see a return of the machine that can win four or five games without too much fuss. I voted '2' but my level of concern will increase if they need some ridiculous heroics to win games against mediocre opponents.
Sean is smart. I might put it a little differently — you don’t want your first brush with significant adversity to occur in the postseason. The 1990 As took a punch in the gut from the Reds, and before you knew it the Series was over. Just one of more than a few examples.

I’ve thought the hallmark of this team was squishing bugs. What the NYY’s did to the Orioles, the Red Sox did first. And good thing. Handling prosperity well for a drastic change. That needs to continue this week.
 

BaseballJones

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This past weekend should serve as a very big reminder that in a short span of time, even the best teams in the world can get their asses handed to them by inferior (even far inferior) teams. I get that if this was a playoff series against TB, Sale is pitching, and they manage things differently. But still, the point remains. You play this Sox team against this Tampa team 162 games head-to-head, and Boston may win 2/3 of them. You play them in three games, and Tampa absolutely can win all three, even if Sale pitches. None of would doubt that if they played a series and Sale vs Snell was the opening matchup, that the Rays could win that game 1-0 or 2-1 or something like that.

So when we talk about the postseason, this needs to be kept in mind - that no matter how good these Sox are (and they're damned good), it wouldn't be a surprise at ALL if they got knocked out early. That's baseball.
 

brandonchristensen

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The holes in their roster are finally starting to show up. We had guys like Steve Pearce come out of nowhere and bolster the team for a bit, we had Eovaldi come in and throw shutouts, now things are going to where they probably should - when 3/5ths of your starting rotation is injured and/or ineffective and your star RFer is slumping.

Hopefully they get closed fast because the Yankees are good enough to take advantage of a weaker schedule.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

Red-headed Skrub child
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Jul 21, 2005
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My level was around a 3 or 4 until this tweet. Now it's at minus eleventy billion. Pedro makes everything better.


Bradford: Cora said Pedro called to say he saw something with Eovaldi and is now in town lending a hand
 

InsideTheParker

persists in error
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Jul 15, 2005
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My level was around a 3 or 4 until this tweet. Now it's at minus eleventy billion. Pedro makes everything better.


Bradford: Cora said Pedro called to say he saw something with Eovaldi and is now in town lending a hand
Oh, me too. Egggsellent! I have been wondering if Porcello needs to get in touch with Derek Lowe again, since during ST he remarked how much he had helped him.
 

Al Zarilla

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My level was around a 3 or 4 until this tweet. Now it's at minus eleventy billion. Pedro makes everything better.


Bradford: Cora said Pedro called to say he saw something with Eovaldi and is now in town lending a hand
Keep that stuff private, guys. Imagine if Drew Bledsoe or someone called Belichick about something he saw with Brady and BB immediately went public about it. Not implying here that Brady isn't perfect. He is. Still, Cora is full of himself sometimes.
 

trekfan55

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Yes, but that's not how Sox fan brain works.

Put it in the microcosm. Let's say the Sox are leading by a run in the 6th.

Then, in the 7th, they score 7 runs to go up by 8.

Then, in the 8th, the opponent scores 6 runs to cut the lead to 2 heading into the 9th.

Logically, you should feel better now than you did at the end of the 6th. Your lead is larger, and your opponent has less time to make it up. Do you in fact feel better?

If the answer is "yes", you do not have Sox fan brain.
This is absolutely correct. My brother is going on about 2011 and 1978 and that was before the Rays finished the sweep.

My level was around a 3 or 4 until this tweet. Now it's at minus eleventy billion. Pedro makes everything better.


Bradford: Cora said Pedro called to say he saw something with Eovaldi and is now in town lending a hand
What would it take for Pedro to be full time pitching coach of the Red Sox (or something similar?) He has an incredible eye for these things, from what I've seen him on MLB Network.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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I doubt Pedro wants that type of commitment. He’s got a pretty good life, working on his terms to some extent (no idea what his deal is with his announcing gigs). He seems like he’ll be a baseball lifer but not be tied down to a real MLB type grind.
 

ToeKneeArmAss

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This team is killing me right now. I know I objectively I should be less worried but I lived through 1978 (barely). Games like tonight could swing either way but good teams generally don't make these kinds of games that close.

I'm looking forward to the hot streak that will set my mind at ease. Ymmv
 

Soxfan in Fla

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After that wretched performance by the pen I’m more concerned about their performance in the playoffs.
 

lapa

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Apr 20, 2018
544
For historical perspective in the recent 2 wild card era which admittedly is only 6 seasons old

Ranking teams only by amount of wins


The number 1 team
2 World Series wins
1 league championship
3 losses in divisional series

Number 2 team
1 World Series
1 league championship
4 losses in divisional series

That's right the top two teams while winning 3 (only half) of the WS are most likely to lose the divisional series 7 out of 12 chances

Adding the number 3 team and noting that 2013 had two teams tied in wins for third

1 World Series
2 lost champ series
4 lost divisional series

Again the most likely outcome is YOU LOSE FIRST TIME UP


So all the panic here seems rather perplexing to me


Put it another way

Let's say the four teams who contest the LCS are equally likely to win at 25% - just the league championship series mind you

Ok let's now say the awesome version of the Red Sox are 'real'. Let's knock Cleveland down to 15, and Houston and Yankees to 20 leaving Red Sox at 55%, let's even say 60%. THEN they play WS and let's again say the Sox are 60 no let's say 75% chance to win

Ok 60% times 75% that's 45% chance

Since I don't believe that the Red Sox are really so much better than Houston NY and Cleveland and then the NL winner I have to classify 45% as an absolute upper limit and the reality is the 'Super Sox' are more than likely about a 1/3 chance to win it all. Certainly less than 50% and thus MORE LIKELY NOT TO WIN THE WS THAN WIN IT

In other words it's HARD to win the WS, and it's hard to relate a 162 regular season sum to the sprint of 3 series in do or die games


Right (pause for breath)

Given that anything less than WS is a let down given the state of the season right now it's better to realize that winning the division and winning 100 games and winning 116 games is not the goal and not worth panicking about.

A team losing their first 62 games and then winning 100 straight is probably going to be in better shape than winning 100 then losing 62 and that's obviously where the 'panic' comes from. Understandable - at one point they looked close to unbeatable and now that's not the case, but that's to be expected - the schedule indicated that the Yankees could catch up a bit. Pythag records showed even when we were unbeatable that we'd stolen some wins. Call it luck or magic but sweeping the Yankees in the way they did was pretty unlikely.

All bets are off playoff time. Sale could be back - or not. Price and Porcello could rock - or not. Edro could be back with Wright - or not. Kimbrel could rock - or not. Mookie could heat up - or not. JD could hit - or not.

They might and probably win the division or they might not. They might be forced into a one game WC which sale might or might not pitch. They could win or lose who knows. And that's regardless of sale giving up 1 run in 8 IP or Brian Johnson 5 runs in 3.

It's a long way to go. What we did in the first 130 games is only an indication of some true talent and a lot of variance and luck

Enjoy it! That's the way to do it. No guarantees and no locks in baseball. Overwhelmingly likely we get in the playoffs and win the division. Let's see how it goes. Losing a handful of games in August shouldn't be given the spotlight over the previous 3 or 4 months

Don't chicken out by pre registering narratives - oo I told you kimbrel couldn't be trusted, I told you mookie wasn't quite that good, I told you the bullpen sucked, I told you the starters were overrated, I told you the lower order sucked

The likelihood is the Red Sox won't win the WS this or any other year. And the same is true for all other teams

Enjoy the ride, they've put up a hell of a show so far, appreciate that for what it is - who knows when we might be the Orioles for a few years again. We've certainly a decent shot at the jewels this year and I don't think any other team is sat at home thinking I really hope we get to face the Red Sox in the playoffs

Panic ? What about ? They had a bad week in a potentially historic season ?


Hardly.
 

dcmissle

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I don’t think many, if any, were ordering rings, and I think everyone understands that the post-season is a crap shoot. I think most agree with you that the RS are not that much better than Cle, Hou, NY.

This isn’t about a bad week. It’s about a fatal flaw that, if not somehow remedied, could cost them the division and have them one-and-done. In a potentially historic season, that would be a damn shame.
 

lapa

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Apr 20, 2018
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I don’t think many, if any, were ordering rings, and I think everyone understands that the post-season is a crap shoot. I think most agree with you that the RS are not that much better than Cle, Hou, NY.

This isn’t about a bad week. It’s about a fatal flaw that, if not somehow remedied, could cost them the division and have them one-and-done. I a potentially historic season, that would be a damn shame.
Oh I don't doubt it.
Being in Europe and only able to see the early games routinely gives me the chance to enjoy the game threads 'after the fact' mostly having seen the Red Sox ultimately win. The speed at which some people throw the towel in and write off the entire season based on one or two innings is amazing and a dish best served in the cold of retrospect

What fatal flaw are people looking for ? The team is what it is, certainly better than the last week showed and probably not as good as the first 3 months. Losing in the playoffs only stings in the what if game. They're not perfect but show me the team that is, again I don't see a fatal flaw or understand what that means

They'll win or they won't but that goes to 8 or 10 other teams. You can write narratives as to why or why not for all of them

The whole concept of discussing what might happen in a crapshoot is kind of nonsense, I guess enjoyable for some. The shame is when it sounds like people want to almost fast forward every game just to file it away as evidence or not for win or bust in October

As far as 'flaws' I mean sale is injured that's not ideal but what you gonna do, maybe he's fresher in October

Kimbrel has been unconvincing for a while he's still racked up lots of saves as we won lots. It's not a flaw it's a feature let's hope he can find the zone more in October

Mookie cooled off but maybe he overperformed for a while. Is chasing out of the zone a 'flaw' or just what happens when you slump a bit ?

The bullpen has been up and down but how did they do so well when we won 90 games ? Again flaw ? More like feature. Who the hell knows which bullpen shows in October

I guess this flaws thing just sounds a bit like tautological retrofitting of narratives to me

The Red Sox are good. So are some other teams. There's a list of things which you'd hope increase our chances just like other teams have their lists. You can still win or lose games even if you don't follow a script.
I really don't see the need to panic.

If they lose every game for the rest of the season I guess it wasn't meant to be it doesn't erase how they played to 90 wins. Of course it would suck but bottom line no difference to losing in the divisional series as is the most likely outcome based on the current playoff format:

Having played .700 for 4 months unfortunately does not guarantee the last month will be more of the same does it

Long story short: is there any actual interesting fact based discussion to he had here? I can think of

- Betts expanding his strike zone ( just as likely a normal reaction to a mini slump)

- Kimbrels plate control or rather the opposition seem to be laying off pitches more now having sussed that out (probably the only real 'flaw' in terms of something has deteriorated clearly that I can identify)

- Sale status unknown ( not really a flaw)

Anything else specifically and noticeably different to the .700 run????
 
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lapa

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Any point discussing putting mookie down in the lineup so he's more likely to see strikes with men on base ?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Any point discussing putting mookie down in the lineup so he's more likely to see strikes with men on base ?
How would moving him down lead to more strikes? Benintendi and Moreland/Pearce aren't enough protection? Who leads off in this scenario?
 

joe dokes

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Kelly has looked better lately. Its been a month since his last really shitty game. I would guess that he and (hopefully two-footed) Brasier will get more of Barnes's leverage over the next little bit.
 

Max Power

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1. Health of Chris Sale
2. The Bullpen
3. October David Price

They likely can survive one, but not any more.
The first one is likely leading to the second. The bullpen is overused because the starters are only going 4 or 5 innings. Now they're struggling. If they could run off a string of three or four games in a row with the starters going 7 or 8 innings, it would help a lot.

Also, Kimbrel needs to throw strikes. If he doesn't, they'll have to pull a 2017 Astros and figure something else out during the playoffs.
 

lexrageorge

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Some of my response does actually depend upon how you define "worried".

Worried about the division race? Personally, I'm of the opinion that the division race is not over until the magic number is zero. What 1978 and 2011 showed was not that the Sox are prone to collapse, but that poorly timed slumps that coincide with well timed surges by the 2nd place team can make what appears to be a large lead look a lot smaller. The good news is that there is still a fair margin, and the return of a healthy Sale and EdRod would both go a long way to stopping any extended losing streaks. Still, there will be reason to be worried if the loss column margin is 4 when the first of the 6 matchups against the Yankees gets underway. Much rather they clinch early and have time to get their pitching lined up the way they want.

Worried about the playoffs? Absolutely. They'll be playing the best teams no matter what. The bullpen could very well be the Achilles heel of this team. But that worry exists even if the Sox go on a 20 game tear and close out the division race when the other New York team is in town.

And every team has a game like last night's that appears harder than it should be, even against the weaker teams. That's just the nature of baseball. Still, one has the right to be concerned about Barnes and what that means for the bullpen.
 

glennhoffmania

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I'm now worried. This team has looked like garbage and they had no business winning last night. Without Sale the rotation is unimpressive, the pen is terrible, and the bats have collectively quieted down. And they seem to be playing tight after this recent string of losing 7 out of 10 or whatever.

It also makes me wonder if Sale is really hurt. Maybe two weeks ago they thought the lead was big enough, but it certainly isn't now and he is just starting to throw. That's a bigger concern than the recent shitty play.
 

lapa

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Apr 20, 2018
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How would moving him down lead to more strikes? Benintendi and Moreland/Pearce aren't enough protection? Who leads off in this scenario?
Leading off bases empty
Other situations with 7,8,9 hitter in front of him and thus likely to be bases empty
Hence no need to groove plate -pitchers can nibble thus chasing pitches more a problem

Bat him 3/4 means more plate appearances with base runners hence more important for pitcher to throw strikes thus more likely for bets to see pitches in the zone

Isn't it self explanatory ?
 
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