Arizona Fall League Rosters for 2022.

Cesar Crespo

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https://www.mlb.com/news/arizona-fall-league-rosters-2022

Red Sox (Scottsdale): Nick Yorke, 2B (No. 5); Thad Ward, RHP (No. 16); Niko Kavadas, 1B (No. 22); Wilyer Abreu, OF (No. 24); Aaron Perry, RHP; Steven Scott, C; Jacob Webb, RHP; Ryan Zeferjahn, RHP
After a spectacular .325/.412/.516 pro debut between two Class A stops in 2021, Yorke slumped to .231/.303/.365 in High-A this year while dealing with toe and wrist injuries. Ward regained his plus slider and reached Double-A this summer while coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2021 and could factor into Boston's pitching plans next season. Kavadas is a slugger who ranks fifth in the Minors with 101 walks and has hit .286/.450/.562 with 26 homers while advancing to Double-A in his first full year as a pro.
Interesting list. I didn't even remember who Aaron Perry was. Abreu prior to today's game had 113bb/151k in 571 PA. .249/.401/.438 for the year. Lotta walks, lotta strike outs. Last year in A+, he had 38 bb in 331 PA. This year, for just Portland, he has 35bb in 160 PA. Webb is an interesting bullpen arm. Zeferjahn throws hards. Scott is organizational filler.
 

RoDaddy

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AFL is roungly eqiivalent to AA, correct? So it will be very interesting to see how the first 3 guys do at this level. If Yorke does well here, it would help salvage a bad season struggling at a lower level (high A). And Kavadas is slowly coming around in Portland so can he contintue that uptrend? As part of his excellent offensive year, I really like his OBP, even while struggling in AA. It might make the difference in his eventually making the bigs.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yorke: 20 PA, .357/.500/.500, 5bb/2k.
Kavadas: 9 PA, .200/.556/.200, 4bb/3k. Wow. Out of 9 PA, he's put the ball in play twice.
Abreu: 16 PA, .091/.250/.091, 3bb/3k.
Scott (Stephen, not Steven): 8 PA, .250/.250/.500, 0bb/1k.
Perry: 2.0 ip, 1 hit, 5 runs/5er, 7bb/0k. 5 wild pitches. Yowzers. I would not want to be facing him right now. He hasn't hit anyone yet, anyway.
Webb: 2.0 ip, 2bb/2k. He's possibly a fast riser in the system. I guess he already is, considering he got 2 promotions this year. MR, so he'll never be ranked that highly. While not likely, there's a non zero chance we see him in Boston in 2023. He'll be starting the year in Portland so most likely it's mid 2024 or start of 2025 (the most likely scenario is we never see him, but he has a legit chance).
Zeferjahn: 1.1 ip, 4 hits, 3 runs/3er, 1 HRA, 1bb/2k.
Ward: 4.2 ip, 4 hits, 2r/2er, 1 HRA, 1bb/7k.

Personally, I don't see Zeferjahn, Perry or Scott as legit prospects. A legit prospect being someone who's actually worth watching/following if you really enjoy player development. I think the Sox probably have 50-60 such players, which is in line with what other publications say. It's considerably more than they've had in recent years. I'm not super hard to please. I like cheering for guys but there's only so much homer. Of course, I don't see either of the 3 on Soxprospects.com either.

While the other 5, I think are legit. Soxprospects does too, or at least 4 of them. They have Yorke at 5, Kavadas at 22, Abreu at 26 and Ward at 18. The don't have Webb ranked and his profile is a mixed bag. Pretty accurate. Still legit, not a hard bar to clear.

Yorke's year was really bad. I know there are some reasons for it, but it was bad. Just like there were reasons for Jeter Downs being bad last year. I'm not comparing the 2 but it has to be noted how bad Yorke was. Him getting off to a hot start in the AFL is nice. Him rebounding would go a long way. He hit well the last 6 games of the year too. Maybe something to build off if he has a good outing in the AFL.

Kavadas struggled a bit in his call up to Portland. While it was only 100 PA, 16bb/40k is awful. His extremely SSS of 9 PA isn't too encouraging, though it comes with 4bb. You have to put the ball in play sometimes. If he wants a career, he'll have to really cut down on the strike outs. It'll be interesting to see what he does next year with a bigger sample size against pitchers who are throwing more strikes.

Not much to say about Webb. It's 2 unremarkable innings.

Ward continues to strike out batters at a high rate. While he had pretty good season all around considering he came back from TJS
His last 3 starts
5.0 ip, 3 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/10k
5.0 ip, 5 hits, 2r/1er, 1bb/10k, 1 HRA
5.0 ip, 4 hits, 1r/0er, 2bb/5k.

Adding in his start in the AFL: last 4 games, 1.83 era, 19.2 ip, 16 hits, 5bb/32k. 40.5% K%/6.3% BB%.

Thing about Thad Ward? He was a top 10 prospect in the system before his TJS. I think he peaked out around 5. Granted that was after his 2019 system in a weaker system, but his success isn't new to this year.

Abreu has struggled in his 19 PA but has show decent plate discipline with 3bb/3k. This guy walks... a lot. I wonder if some of it holds up. That huge increase in BB% also came with a huge increase in K% and power. Plays passable D in CF but is average in RF with a good arm. I'm usually weary of guys who alter their swings and sell out to the K but he's a unique one, at least statistically. Maybe this year is just noise but wow.

2017: 10.1% BB%, 21.0% K%, .059 ISO
2018: 11.3% BB%, 20.0% K%, .079 ISO
2019: 8.8% BB%, 20.9% K%, .110 ISO
2021: 11.5% BB%, 29.9% K%, .226 ISO
2022: 19.7% BB%, 26.4% K%, .192 ISO

2022 totals: 579 PA, 114bb/153k.

I'm not really sure when the last time a Red Sox player walked 100 times in the minor leagues (and Abreu wasn't on the team all year), but Kevin Youkilis did it in 2003. He had 104bb/61k in 549 PA, 417 of them in AA. So same level as Abreu but a year older. Obviously far better strike zone judgement too, strike out less than half the time Abreu does. Some of that is era, but most of it isn't. Still a fun player to follow given all the changes in his rates the last few years.
 

Cesar Crespo

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AFL is roungly eqiivalent to AA, correct? So it will be very interesting to see how the first 3 guys do at this level. If Yorke does well here, it would help salvage a bad season struggling at a lower level (high A). And Kavadas is slowly coming around in Portland so can he contintue that uptrend? As part of his excellent offensive year, I really like his OBP, even while struggling in AA. It might make the difference in his eventually making the bigs.
Kind of? I'd say it's between AA and AAA but that may be semantics. But yeah, I think a strong outing in the AFL can help Ward, Yorke, Kavadas and Abreu. Abreu should be in AAA to start next season and Ward might be, so they aren't too far away. I think Ward would have to dominate in his AFL outings to be placed in AAA though. Not nearly enough innings but if he continues to be lights out, maybe the quality gets him there.
 

amfox1

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I think Ward would have to dominate in his AFL outings to be placed in AAA though. Not nearly enough innings but if he continues to be lights out, maybe the quality gets him there.
With Mata, Seabold, Walter, Murphy, Santos and perhaps Bello starting in Worcester, I think it is likely that Ward starts in Portland next season.
 

jmcc5400

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Kind of? I'd say it's between AA and AAA but that may be semantics. But yeah, I think a strong outing in the AFL can help Ward, Yorke, Kavadas and Abreu. Abreu should be in AAA to start next season and Ward might be, so they aren't too far away. I think Ward would have to dominate in his AFL outings to be placed in AAA though. Not nearly enough innings but if he continues to be lights out, maybe the quality gets him there.
It’s a struggle (at least for me) to find AFL stats, but in an extreme hitters environment (Scottsdale has the lowest team OPS at .807), Kavadas (.976) and Yorke (.897) seem to be doing fine, while Abreu (.440) has been awful. Ward’s 4.70 ERA isn’t terrible in that environment (lowest team ERA is above 5.00).
 

The Gray Eagle

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Ward left his last start with an oblique injury.
https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/red_sox_pitching_prospect_thad_ward_diagnosed_with_left_oblique_strain/s1_16445_37987666

On Monday night, Red Sox pitching prospect Thad Ward was forced to exit his Arizona Fall League start in the fourth inning after being escorted off the mound by a team trainer.

Ward, making his second start for the Scottsdale Scorpions, had allowed two runs on four hits, five walks, and two strikeouts over three-plus innings of work in a 7-1 loss to the Surprise Saguaros.

According to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, Ward was removed from Monday’s contest with a left oblique strain. It remains to be seen if the right-hander will pitch again before the Arizona Fall League season comes to a close next month.

EDIT: Looks like 91 to 94 on the fastball is about his usual velocity.

In his first start for Scottsdale last Tuesday, Ward sat at 91-94 mph with his two-seam fastball while also mixing in an 81-85 mph slider (his best pitch) and an 87-89 mph changeup.
 
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Heating up in the bullpen

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Keith Law take on Nick Yorke, from The Athletic.
"• Boston second baseman Nick Yorke had a huge breakout season in 2021, the 2020 first-rounder’s pro debut, but wasn’t as good in High A this year at age 20, hitting .232/.303/.365 with a 25 percent strikeout rate. He has a great, simple swing that should lead to lots of line-drive contact. But all I saw from him last week was pop-ups and short flyouts, with just one base hit in 11 plate appearances and otherwise moderate to weak contact. That hit came on a 98 mph right-on-right fastball, so it’s not that he can’t hit or turn on velocity (he pulled it to left), just that he’s getting under the ball too much. He’s not going to be a power hitter, but it looked like he was trying to lift the ball too much whenever I saw him. He’s a fringy defender at second so he is going to have to hit to have value."
https://theathletic.com/3703139/2022/10/18/mlb-prospects-arizona-fall-league/
 

simplicio

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I hope so too, though I wouldn't read too much into it; klaw noted that the pitching in the AFL this year is generally pretty bad.
 

Ganthem

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Keith Law take on Nick Yorke, from The Athletic.
"• Boston second baseman Nick Yorke had a huge breakout season in 2021, the 2020 first-rounder’s pro debut, but wasn’t as good in High A this year at age 20, hitting .232/.303/.365 with a 25 percent strikeout rate. He has a great, simple swing that should lead to lots of line-drive contact. But all I saw from him last week was pop-ups and short flyouts, with just one base hit in 11 plate appearances and otherwise moderate to weak contact. That hit came on a 98 mph right-on-right fastball, so it’s not that he can’t hit or turn on velocity (he pulled it to left), just that he’s getting under the ball too much. He’s not going to be a power hitter, but it looked like he was trying to lift the ball too much whenever I saw him. He’s a fringy defender at second so he is going to have to hit to have value."
https://theathletic.com/3703139/2022/10/18/mlb-prospects-arizona-fall-league/
Are the Sox desperately clinging to the three true outcomes and are trying to get Yorke to hit for more power? It seems if that is not part of his game then his struggles could be explained by a flawed organizational strategy
 

Jimbodandy

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Are the Sox desperately clinging to the three true outcomes and are trying to get Yorke to hit for more power? It seems if that is not part of his game then his struggles could be explained by a flawed organizational strategy
His spotty results this year can be explained by injuries. Power output was similar to last year and walks.

Good to see him smashing there. He was trending up in each of July, August, and September after cratering in June.
 

RoDaddy

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I hope so too, though I wouldn't read too much into it; klaw noted that the pitching in the AFL this year is generally pretty bad.
He's also got some good hitters behind him. That said though, I would read this as him back on track if he can keep it up the last few weeks. Enough to get him back on top 100 lists imo... especially considering he's only 20 and starring in this league
 

billy ashley

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It's encouraging. I think most analysts were pretty kind to Yorke over the course of this season, for reason's outlined in that Law snippet. There's nothing glaringly wrong with him. His timing was off at various points, and he missed a bunch of time to injuries. He's also been given aggressive placements throughout his time with the Sox.

The AFL is a nice reminder that he is talented. Reports (other than Law's above) have been that he's looked better, more fluid at 2B this year. But the bat will need to carry him. There aren't many paths to success for Yorke... he's got to hit. The good news is there are more reasons to believe he will than he won't to this point. If he repeats his performance in 22 next year that'll change, but for the moment, he's still an exciting prospect.
 

RoDaddy

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AFL winding down with Kavadas (39 ABs) and Yorke (71 ABs) ranking 12th and 15th in OPS at .929 and .921, respectively, and with a couple dingers each. So all good so far!

Also, a heads up that the home run derby is tomorrow night at 6:35 and the Fall Stars is Sunday at 2. This link has been excellent for real time game streams: https://www.mlb.com/arizona-fall-league