Arsenal 2015-2016: The One That Got Away

blueguitar322

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
1,104
Wilshere had two wondergoals yesterday in England's come from behind win against Slovenia. I don't think there's any real question that he's been England's best player (or at least best midfielder) in Euro qualification. 
 
http://streamable.com/oxbw
http://streamable.com/3w7m
 
https://twitter.com/HectorBellerin/status/610158600615497728
 
It'd be great to see him get a long, injury-free stretch at Arsenal in the form he's clearly capable of. To fight for the spot next to Coquelin - which is his natural position - he will have to beat out Cazorla and Ramsey for playing time. Difficult, but not impossible; he has a higher ceiling imho than either player. He still has some growing up to do, but then again he's only 23. In a perfect world, he continues to improve his defensive game (4 tackles and 4 interceptions vs Slovenia compared to an average of about 1.2 each per game in his Arsenal career) and improves his decision making vis-a-vis defensive positioning. If he can do that, I think he's a starter.
 
I think one of the biggest decisions Wenger will have to make at the beginning of the year is whether he benches 30-year-old Cazorla - who was maybe the team's second or third best player during the last half of the year - to give either Ramsey or Wilshere another chance to start centrally. Right now, Cazorla is better than either of them, so I think he starts until proven otherwise, but if his form dips I wouldn't be surprised to see him pushed to the bench and then graciously returned to native Spain next summer for his swan song.
 

blueguitar322

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
1,104
[tablegrid= Arsenal Fixtures 2015-16 ] Premier League Cup Competitions August     8 West Ham United (h)   15 Crystal Palace (a)   22 Liverpool (h)   29 Newcastle United (a)         September     12 Stoke City (h)   15/16   Champions League (TBD) 19 Chelsea (a)   23   League Cup 3rd Round (TBD) 26 Leicester City (a)   29/30   Champions League (TBD)       October     3 Manchester United (h)   17 Watford (a)   20/21   Champions League (TBD) 24 Everton (h)   28   League Cup 4th Round (if qualified) 31 Swansea City (a)         November     3/4   Champions League (TBD) 7 Tottenham (h)   21 West Brom (a)   25/26   Champions League (TBD) 28 Norwich City (a)         December     2   League Cup 5th Round (if qualified) 5 Sunderland (h)   8/9   Champions League (TBD) 12 Aston Villa (a)   19 Manchester City (h)   26 Southampton (a)   28 Bournemouth (h)         January     2 Newcastle United (h)   9/10   FA Cup 3rd Round (TBD) 12 Liverpool (a)   16 Stoke City (a)   23 Chelsea (h)   30   FA Cup 4th Round (if qualified)       February     2 2 Southampton (h)   6 6 Bournemouth (a)   13 13 Leicester City (h)   16/17   Champions League Knockout Leg 1 (option 1 of 2) (if qualified) 20   FA Cup 5th Round (if qualified) 23/24   Champions League Knockout Leg 1 (option 2 of 2) (if qualified) 27 Manchester United (a)         March     1 Swansea City (h)   5 Tottenham Hotspur (a)   8/9   Champions League Knockout Leg 2 (option 1 of 2) (if qualified) 12 West Brom (h)   15/16   Champions League Knockout Leg 2 (option 2 of 2) (if qualified) 19 Everton (a)         April     2 Watford (h)   9 West Ham United (a)   16 Crystal Palace (h)   23 Sunderland (a)   30 Norwich City (h)         May     7 Manchester City (a)   15 Aston Villa (h)   [/tablegrid]
 

blueguitar322

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
1,104
I don't mind the CL fixture against United coming immediately after CL, as (1) they will have a CL game as well, and (2) it's at the Emirates. But other than that, yeah, it's a bit tricky to navigate. Thankfully the league schedule itself is mostly smooth, no overly tough runs. The season end of WBA-Everton-Watford-Hammers-Palace-Sunderland-Norwich-City-Villa is pretty nice; could set up well for a sprint to the finish line. 
 

sachmoney

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2008
9,513
Tim Thomas' Bunker
I think that the away fixtures in coordination with away fixtures last year was more difficult. I see having big games near Champions League games as a good thing as those games should be ones that the players get up for. You don't want them to turn off mentally against a lower table side. Furthermore, the big league games are a bit more spread out, so there shouldn't be any stretch where you're playing City, Chelsea, Spurs on top of Champions League knockout games.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
Most of our games against the top teams are home in the first half of the year and away in the second half (Chelsea is the exception) so I think for us to contend for the league we'll need to be at the top of the table when the Festive period comes around.  The beginning of the year looks favorable.  If we can come out strong and get 12-13 points in those first five fixtures, we can go into Stamford Bridge in good position.
 
The toughest stretch will likely be in February and early March, as seems to often be the case, with the fixture congestion of the UCL Knockout stage, FA Cup, and league fixtures at WHL and Old Trafford.  But its not a murderous stretch by any means.
 
The run-in is pretty favorable.  If we can make it to April at or near the top of the table, we'll have a good chance.
 

sachmoney

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2008
9,513
Tim Thomas' Bunker
He got fined 40k for saying Tottenham are shit (which they are). I realize that it's less than a week's salary for these guys, but that's freakin' ridiculous. He should appeal, though I would imagine, since he got warned last year, that it is unlikely to be reduced drastically. I hope he signs his check with "Tottenham are shit" as the Memo.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
Don't count your chickens and all but Cech seems very, very likely to happen.  Gazidis has confirmed that talks are occurring.  Our GK coach Tony Roberts has left for Swansea (everybody assumes that Cech will bring longtime coach Christophe Lollichon with him).  And rumors are circulating that we sell Ospina to Fenerbahce for 4m.
 
If we buy Cech in the 10-11m range that has been rumored, sell Ospina for 4m, and also sell Podolski to Galatasary or elsewhere for the nominal get-his-wages-off-our-books fee that has been rumored, we'll come out about 4-5m behind in transfer fees and roughly even in wages, assuming Cech receives wages somewhere in the low-to-mid 100s.
 
First and foremost, I hope we just lock this transfer down sometime soon.  But its a nice bonus that the proverbial "war chest" is still full if other opportunities arise this summer, like the Benzema dream.
 

blueguitar322

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
1,104

mikeford

woolwich!
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2006
29,539
St John's, NL
JayMags71 said:
Forgive the stupid question, but he automatically becomes first choice for you over Szczesny, right?
Woj wasn't the first choice to begin with, Ospina is(was)
 
Assuming that sale of Ospina to Fenerbahce actually happens, yes Cech is the #1 shirt. 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
And Arsenal have made their first signing of the summer...the fantastically named 16-year-old midfielder Vladimir Dragomir, pictured here with the also fantastically named Dick Law.  We have signed a bunch of foreign kids in this age range over the last year.  Its good to see that we're investing in the academy and buying these scratch tickets.
 
 

AgentOrange

Member
SoSH Member
May 15, 2007
476
https://twitter.com/davidamoyal/status/615490195782242304

That tweet is from about an hour ago. That's the guy who runs Di Marzio's English language transfer site.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
Massive signing.  With all respect to Mooney, Fabianski, Don Vito, Woj, and Ospina, this position has been a huge weakness since Lehman left. 
 
I don't think there is much between Cech and guys like De Gea or Courtois.  Any club would rather have the latter two simply because they're younger but Cech is still an elite player at the GK position and I think he'll continue to be one for 3-4 more years.  For the third summer in a row, Wenger has added one of the best players in the world at his position to the squad.
 
For a younger team with big ambitions, I think its also huge to add a veteran player like Cech who has won everything and is known for being a consummate professional. 
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,193
San Francisco
Are footballing statistics at a point where shots and saves can be broken down by distance, headers, spots on the pitch etc? Anyone know of a reference?
 

soxfan121

JAG
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
23,043
It will be interesting to see Cech's results in front of a defense without a world-class centerback commanding the backline. Hate Terry all you'd like but Arsenal doesn't have anyone nearly that good, even now, and for most of Cech's tenure (where he racked up those gaudy stats). 
 
I'm sure Arsenal got a great player; I'm not so sure that great player will look as great without a defensive stalwart and a team philosophy emphasizing defense in front of him.
 

rguilmar

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
1,611
soxfan121 said:
It will be interesting to see Cech's results in front of a defense without a world-class centerback commanding the backline. Hate Terry all you'd like but Arsenal doesn't have anyone nearly that good, even now, and for most of Cech's tenure (where he racked up those gaudy stats). 
 
I'm sure Arsenal got a great player; I'm not so sure that great player will look as great without a defensive stalwart and a team philosophy emphasizing defense in front of him.
Arsenal gave up 36 goals last year in the EPL, third best behind Chelsea (32) and Southampton (33). Not saying that Arsenal have a Terry-level defensive leader but it's not like they ignored that part of the game.
 
Invoking save percentage as a stat to measure goalkeepers is like using RBIs to evaluate hitters or wins to measure pitchers. I mean, this list doesn't give anyone cause for pause?
 

 
Gomes? Kuszczak? Hahnemann? Manonne? Really?
 
Goalkeeping is such a difficult skill to judge - I don't think advanced stats are anywhere near being sufficient in this area. So much of a keeper's success is context-dependent: positioning and reflexes are obviously important, but where do draw the line between the keeper's contributions and those (or the lack thereof) from his defense and his opposition? For example, take a look at Ospina's double-save the other night against Argentina in the Copa America:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7q-uPhu92U
 
On the first save, Ospina is well positioned, but a) the finish was fairly tame, and b) slightly better defending could have blocked the shot in the first place. The rebound was both unavoidable and unlucky from Ospina's perspective, but as good as Ospina's recovery powers were in getting up and into position to make the save, a) Messi had literally the entire net to aim at and still hit him, and b) who's to say a different keeper might have sprung back to his feet even more quickly and blocked the shot less spectacularly?
 
I was a goalkeeper myself back in the day (career highlight = saving a penalty on the hallowed turf at Highbury), so perhaps I look at keepers with a slightly jaundiced eye, but very rarely do I see a save which makes me unhesitatingly credit the goalkeeper. Commentators are usually the worst at exaggerating a keeper's merits and performance; if the ball hits him in the chest, chances are it's not an "incredible point-blank save". Keepers like Shay Given are the equivalent of shortstops like Derek Jeter who can fill highlight reels with spectacular saves which would have looked much simpler with better defensive positioning to begin with. And while it's relatively easy to judge when a keeper is at fault for a goal, you still have to rely upon the eye test to make that determination, not advanced metrics.
 
Anyway, there's a substantial body of evidence which suggests that Cech is an outstanding keeper and a great buy for Arsenal, and I'm super excited to have him at the club. But I don't think it's a slam dunk that he'll be *that* much better than Sczespina were last year. And if he is as good as advertised, that'll probably be reflected as much in the performance of the defenders in front of him as in the apparent quality of the saves he makes.
 

Spacemans Bong

chapeau rose
SoSH Member
Mind you, it's not impossible the confidence of the defenders goes way up and they can do more adventurous things knowing an all-time great is behind than rather than a loose cannon like Szcz or a good but not great keeper like Ospina.
 
But good post by CP. Save percentage for goalkeepers is a pretty bad start, it reads like somebody at Opta follows the NHL and decided to use the same stat without thinking of how it's not perfect in the NHL and that's a league where there's much, much, much more similarity in how goalies play, what style of play teams use, and what type of shots and the frequency of shots they face. 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
This is the squad for the trip to Singapore.  It will be interesting to get a look at Crowley, Willock, and Reine-Adelaide, three of our more promising youth players, although obviously these games aren't very competitive and can make players look more developed than they really are (as with Zelalem a few years ago).  Another interesting note is that neither Campbell nor Sanogo are on that list.  I think that's pretty strong evidence that both have played their last games in Arsenal shirts, a good thing in my view.
 
Chuba Akpom
Mikel Arteta
Hector Bellerin
Santi Cazorla
Petr Cech
Calum Chambers
Francis Coquelin
Dan Crowley
Mathieu Debuchy
Mathieu Flamini
Gabriel
Kieran Gibbs
Olivier Giroud
Alex Iwobi
Laurent Koscielny
Emiliano Martinez
Per Mertesacker
Nacho Monreal
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Mesut Ozil
Aaron Ramsey
Jeff Reine-Adelaide
Wojciech Szczesny
Theo Walcott
Chris Willock
Jack Wilshere
Gedion Zelalem
 
 
Also, here is the tweet that set the Arsenal-related internet abuzz yesterday.  In all likelihood, this guy is just trolling.  On the other hand, he is an actual big time football agent (not some random wannabe ITK like Geoff_Arsenal or whoever) with a big time client list and his previous tweets this summer have actually been fairly accurate with respect to players like Alderweireld, RVP, Payet, etc....
 
https://twitter.com/Muzziozcan/status/618765029517729792
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
Scattered tidbits:
 
-Jenkinson has officially gone on loan back to West Ham.  That seems like a good situation for all involved as he has done well there but would be buried here behind Bellerin and Debuchy.
 
-There is a lot of noise about Sanogo going on loan to Ajax, which would be fantastic for him as he needs to play, will get great coaching, and there is no place like the Eredivisie for a striker who has otherwise struggled to find the net.  At the same time, pretty sad days for Ajax when they're looking to loan the likes of Sanogoals...
 
-Arsenal kick off their pre-season with a match tomorrow against a "Singapore Select XI," whatever that means.  I believe that it will be on NBC Live Extra at 9:30 EST.
 

sachmoney

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2008
9,513
Tim Thomas' Bunker
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Scattered tidbits:
 
-Jenkinson has officially gone on loan back to West Ham.  That seems like a good situation for all involved as he has done well there but would be buried here behind Bellerin and Debuchy.
 
-There is a lot of noise about Sanogo going on loan to Ajax, which would be fantastic for him as he needs to play, will get great coaching, and there is no place like the Eredivisie for a striker who has otherwise struggled to find the net.  At the same time, pretty sad days for Ajax when they're looking to loan the likes of Sanogoals...
 
-Arsenal kick off their pre-season with a match tomorrow against a "Singapore Select XI," whatever that means.  I believe that it will be on NBC Live Extra at 9:30 EST.
I think it's supposed to be 8:30.
 
soxfan121 said:
Eleven gents from Singapore would be my guess.
From wikipedia, "made up of Singapore internationals and selected players from the S.League." So basically, but not quite 100% true.
 
Line up: Martinez, Debuchy, Mertesacker, Gabriel, Monreal, Flamini, Coquelin, Wilshere, Ox, Iwobi, Akpom
Subs: Szczesny, Bellerin, Zelalem, Crowley, Toral, Willock
 
Super young. Looking forward to seeing Z in the second half.