Ask Draft Experts Your Questions

[SMU_Sox]

I have been asking around on draft twitter and I want to bring over some draft experts to SoSH for an informal Q&A. @mascho agreed to join.

I will update this post with author's bio's and where you can find his/her work here shortly before or right after they post depending on timing. I also want to point your questions to the right expert. For example, if you have a question on QB, Mascho, or Ben Solak would be the people I would look to. If you wanted to talk D-Line I'd point you to Jon Ledyard or whichever expert I could get on that. I would like to have a few questions posted though so I can start recruiting people to come here and post. So post away. Let's start with some QB questions though for Mascho since he kindly agreed to do this.


Mark Schofield:
Mark writes for Inside the Pylon, he has a weekly Check With Me column as well as many pieces throughout the entire year on QBs. Here is a link to his page on ITP. Mark is a thoughtful and detail oriented author. He can diagnose and discuss the mechanics of the position, the mental processes, and the schemes in which the QB will execute the offense.
Mark is also the host of LockedonPatriots which is a must listen to. The past year I have felt like I have learned a lot about schemes, X's, O's, and how the game is played. So much of that comes from LockenonPatriots and Mark's thorough breakdowns of opponents and what the Patriots will do to counter.
Mark sometimes writes in the style of his old profession, a lawyer. Take a look at one of my favorite pieces by him recent, a Defendant's Reply Brief: Big Draft vs Lamar Jackson.
Mark also writes for Pro Football Weekly doing mostly QB work including this piece on his top landing spots for the top 5 QBs.
You can find Mark's work on the 2018 NFL QBs in the ITP 2018 Draft Guide.
His twitter: @MarkSchofield

Now it is time for questions!

 

[SMU_Sox]

Mark,

First of all, thank you for your incredible work. What an exciting time to be a Patriots fan. There is a lot of smoke with the Patriots and their interest in QBs this year. While we have it via your podcast, how do you feel about the Lamar Jackson - Patriots fit and do you think they would trade up, perhaps in front of Arizona, to take him?

In case no one else asks... how far do you think Rosen would have to slide for them to have a realistic chance to trade up for him?

Thank you again!

 

[pappymojo]

Independent of players in this draft, I have some questions about the value of draft picks.

Recently Belichick made reference to how the change that allows teams to trade comp picks has impacted the Patriots' draft value chart.

Question) Has anyone in the media attempted to build a new trade chart reflecting the change?
Question) Do you think the change will have a big impact on the draft going forward?

 

[pappymojo]

In reviewing a GM's career draft performance, a lot of media types seem to judge performance based on how well the GM has done with first round picks, second round picks, etc. even though it is obvious the third overall pick does not compare to 30th pick in either value or in the team's ability to 'hit' on a draft pick.

Question) Has anyone performed an analysis of draft pick success where it may be possible to isolate smaller groups of picks based on the probability for landing a starter-level player?

In my mind, I always thought it made more sense to consider picks 1 through 5 (5 picks total), 6 through 10 (5 picks total), 11 through 34 (24 picks total), 35 through 58 (24 picks total) and onward in groups of 24 until you get to the 154th pick.

Missing with the fourth overall pick is much worse than missing with the 24th pick and drafting a Pro Bowl level player with the 132nd pick is much more impressive than drafting a Pro Bowl player with the 3rd overall pick.

 

[pappymojo]

Question) Do teams release how much they spend on their draft process (including salaries, travel expenses and resources (such as BLESTO))?

Question) If so, has anyone performed an analysis comparing how much a team spends on scouting versus how successful their draft performance is (perhaps in comparison to the salary cap as a way to normalize spending across multiple years)?

 

[SMU_Sox]

I have a question about defensive tackles.
Spoiling context for question:

Spoiler

In 2019 the Patriots have the following defensive tackles on their roster not counting Malcom Brown's 5th year option which has not yet been exercised: Adam Butler, Lawrence Guy, and Vincent Valentine. Valentine is coming off an injury and is probably only going to be effective against the run, Guy is about average, Butler is a developing UDFA, and Brown is, I think, above average to good but not a star. Only Guy is on the roster in 2020.

It looks like the Patriots could consider upgrading their talent in the trenches and have room for 3-down prospects who can rush the passer and be effective against the run, pass rushing specialists, and reliable run stuffers.

If you put on your GM's hat, donned the hoody, embraced the dark of the force, etc., of any of the three types of defensive tackle prospects, who do you think fits best with the Patriots who might be available in day 1 (23/31), day 2 (43/63/95), or day 3 198/210/219?

Thank you!

 

[Super Nomario]

Some of these are great questions for the ITP gang, and as it turns out we are doing a YouTube live tonight at 10:30:

 

[SMU_Sox]

Some of these are great questions for the ITP gang, and as it turns out we are doing a YouTube live tonight at 10:30:

I asked - looking forward to it tonight. Never experienced a YouTube live before.

 

[koufax32]

Thanks for doing this.

Are you aware of any way that teams attempt to quantify or measure pocket presence? What value do teams generally put on this in their valuation of QB prospects? To expand on this, what would a typical team’s priority set look like in order of importance? For instance, maybe 1. arm strength 2. anticipation 3. rush awareness, etc.

 

[ZMart100]

In reviewing a GM's career draft performance, a lot of media types seem to judge performance based on how well the GM has done with first round picks, second round picks, etc. even though it is obvious the third overall pick does not compare to 30th pick in either value or in the team's ability to 'hit' on a draft pick.

Question) Has anyone performed an analysis of draft pick success where it may be possible to isolate smaller groups of picks based on the probability for landing a starter-level player?

In my mind, I always thought it made more sense to consider picks 1 through 5 (5 picks total), 6 through 10 (5 picks total), 11 through 34 (24 picks total), 35 through 58 (24 picks total) and onward in groups of 24 until you get to the 154th pick.

Missing with the fourth overall pick is much worse than missing with the 24th pick and drafting a Pro Bowl level player with the 132nd pick is much more impressive than drafting a Pro Bowl player with the 3rd overall pick.

I've done a bit of that. Basically, I don't believe that there is provably such a thing as a good or bad drafting GM. They all have such short track records with so much variance in player performance. Some GMs had more success some had more failure, but they were within what one would expect by random chance.

I took draft positions by on field position and looked at games played and games started then fit them locally. I tried to write the whole thing up for ITP a few years ago, but it was just a series of pictures that weren't all that informative collectively. When I looked at GM performance, I took actual performance of draft picks vs. expected performance of a player at their on field position and draft position. Then I looked at surplus/deficit games played and started for all of a GM's picks. Determining GM drafting talent by measuring games and starts is also difficult because somebody has to play, even for bad teams. I never wrote up the GM stuff.

Here's an example of the images for WRs (note the data is a couple years out of date, but I doubt much has changed)

Spoiler

 

[Super Nomario]

I've done a bit of that. Basically, I don't believe that there is provably such a thing as a good or bad drafting GM. They all have such short track records with so much variance in player performance. Some GMs had more success some had more failure, but they were within what one would expect by random chance.

I took draft positions by on field position and looked at games played and games started then fit them locally. I tried to write the whole thing up for ITP a few years ago, but it was just a series of pictures that weren't all that informative collectively. When I looked at GM performance, I took actual performance of draft picks vs. expected performance of a player at their on field position and draft position. Then I looked at surplus/deficit games played and started for all of a GM's picks. Determining GM drafting talent by measuring games and starts is also difficult because somebody has to play, even for bad teams. I never wrote up the GM stuff.

Here's an example of the images for WRs (note the data is a couple years out of date, but I doubt much has changed)

We had a couple essays on the subject in the ITP Draft Guide this year. My opinion is that essentially you are correct. I think you do sometimes see teams do dumb things; I don't think the best-drafting teams are really much/any better than average, but I don't think there's any floor to how bad stupid teams might be. I also think sometimes you do see real advantages, but they are short-lived. Seattle was ahead of the curve a few years ago with long CBs and SPARQ athletes, but it's a copycat league and the rest of the NFL has caught up to those advantages, and the Seahawks have been a below-average drafting team over the past five years or so. Their track record as a whole is probably not distinguishable from random variance but I really do think they "beat the system" from '10-'12; the problem is it's almost impossible to sustain that advantage.

 

[mascho]

Mark,

First of all, thank you for your incredible work. What an exciting time to be a Patriots fan. There is a lot of smoke with the Patriots and their interest in QBs this year. While we have it via your podcast, how do you feel about the Lamar Jackson - Patriots fit and do you think they would trade up, perhaps in front of Arizona, to take him?

In case no one else asks... how far do you think Rosen would have to slide for them to have a realistic chance to trade up for him?

Thank you again!

Hello friends.

Schematially I think the fit could work with Lamar in New England. He's running a watered-down version of New England's offense right now. Bobby Petrino's offense is rooted in Erhardt-Perkins concepts, and the playbook is filled with lots of route combinations that are similar to what the Patriots are doing on Sundays. Jackson is tasked with making full-field reads, the plays all have conversion options built into them, and there are some route concepts and designs that are very similar. You can check out a Petrino playbook here and a Patriots playbook here to see what I mean. Now, that being said I think there are better schematic fits for him. Despite his experience, I think his traits (atheticism, fairly quick processing on particular route concepts) translate best to a hybrid West Coast/Air Raid system. Think what the Jets looked like last year.

I think they'd have to get into the early teens to get him. Would be surprised sitting here right now if Jackson fell past the mid teens with teams like Arizona and the Chargers. Baltimore a wild card as well for Jackson's services.

As for Rosen, everything I'm hearing and reading is that he's the guy that will fall out of this group. Which I find surprising, but the NFL draft is filled with surprises. I think if he falls to 9, NE has a shot to get up and to draft him. The handy-dandy draft pick value chart (FWIW) puts 9 on par with 23 and 31. Imagine that. New England might have to throw something in to sweeten the deal, but perhaps that first pick in the second round would do it. So...yeah. Start writing the conspiracy theory stories now.

I'll have more on these two guys on Monday or so when the final part of my QB rankings at ITP drop, and I'll have the final 2018 First Sound video dropping on Monday as well, when I break down why Rosen is my QB1. You can find the videos done to date at the ITP YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/insidethepylon