Atletico de Madrid, 2016-2017: Five Years of Simeone

bosox4283

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After the devastating loss in the Champions League final, Cholo Simeone said that he needs to reflect on what comes next for him. There was a subtle hint that he may leave Atletico, saying that it was a failure that he lost two Champions League finals in a row. Quedate, Cholo.

It's hard to believe it, but Atletico is supposed to start its preseason on July 7th. I sometimes think there is too much football.

Atletico, as a result of both developing and buying talent, has 12 players in international tournaments this summer:

Argentina (5): Copa America - Augusto Fernandez, Matias Kranevitter, and Nicolas Gaitan (to join the club this summer from Benfica). Olympics - Angel Correa and Luciano Vietto.

Brazil (1): Filipe Luis.

Uruguay (2): Diego Godin, Jose Gimenez.

Belgium (1): Carrasco.

France (1): Antoine Griezmann.

Spain (2): Juanfran and Koke.
*Note: It should be three -- it's absurd that Saul is not there with Spain.
 
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Zososoxfan

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Griezmann signs a contract extension thru 2021. The extension only amounts to one year, but there's almost definitely a substantial pay bump involved as well. I'm very happy to see Atleti keep one of their best players.
 

bosox4283

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Atletico's squad is basically set for this year, except for the big-name striker that Simeone is coveting. More on this topic later.

Players per position with ages, in order of player ranking. The asterisk denotes a new signing.

GK: Jan Oblak (23), Miguel Moya (32)

RB: Juanfran (31), *Sime Vrsaljko (24)
LB: Filipe Luis (30), Lucas Hernandez (20)
CB: Diego Godin (30), Stefan Savic (25), Jose Gimenez (21), Lucas Hernandez (20)

DM: Gabi (33), Augusto Fernandez (30), Tiago Mendes (35), Thomas Partey (23)
MF: Koke (24), Saul Niguez (21), Carrasco (21), *Nicolas Gaitan (28)

F: Griezmann (25), Torres (32), Angel Correa (21), *Signing

Atletico made a wise move by loaning Kranevitter, the 23-year-old Argentine DM, to Sevilla. I actually thought Kranevitter was younger. He has a bright future but needs a season to grow into La Liga by playing. At Atletico, he doesn't forecast to get much playing time behind Gabi, Augusto Fernandez, and Tiago.

The team needs to make a decision with Luciano Vietto and Oliver Torres. I like both players, but I'm not sure it's best for them or Atletico to have them on the bench for long stretches during the season. It's highly likely that Vietto goes elsewhere since Atletico seem determined to sign a top-notch striker.

Simeone apparently wants a squad of 22-23 players, and I'm counting 21 after Atletico picks up another striker. I'm going to guess Luciano Vietto leaves but that the team tries to retain Oliver Torres. It's possible that Oliver doesn't want to sit on the bench and asks for a transfer, though.

The problem with moving Vietto and Oliver is that the team needs to add one or two more players if they depart. Simeone might want to keep Diogo Jota of Portugal and Rafael Santos Borre of Colombia, two young players who recently signed, around so that they can spend a year learning from Simeone and training with him. I'm actually going to guess this solution will be the solution: in my listing above, there are 12 midfielders and forwards for 6 game-day players (9 players including substitutes). In other words, Vietto/Oliver or Jota/Borre will be players #13-14, far enough down the ladder that they won't be essential to Atletico's success but can spend a year developing the fitness and skills to thrive under Simeone.
 
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bosox4283

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About a month later, we have a few updates:

1. Atletico has signed Kevin Gameiro from Sevilla for 35M euros or so. Gameiro was the team's fifth option, but he's a solid player who should provide veteran depth and score goals.

2. Atletico has loaned Luciano Vietto to Sevilla. This move occurred before Atleti signed Gameiro. The move makes sense--Vietto was going to see little time on the pitch this year--but Atletico gave Sevilla an option to buy for 20M euros, which means that if Vietto has a monster season (a) Sevilla can profit and (b) Atleti might not be able to get him back.

3. I predicted, albeit meekly, that Atletico would retain Borre, the Colombian striker, so that he could learn from and work with Simeone the entire season. Well, when Soldado of Villarreal went down with a torn ACL, Villarreal came knocking and made a deal with Alteti to take Borre on loan.

4. Oliver Torres is most linked with Porto. It's not yet known if it will be a sale or loan.
 

tmracht

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I like the Gameiro signing he may be further down the list of options but he's got goals in him.
 

bosox4283

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After last year's stinging Champions League Final defeat, I was really hoping Atleti would start with a win. A win, a sign the team had returned with renewed energy, would help push aside the heart-wrenching defeat to Real Madrid.

Alas, it wasn't as bad as it could be, but Atletico gave up a game-tying goal to the recently promoted Alaves in the 95th minute. Yuck.

While only one game, I'm curious to see how Simeone reacts. He could:

(a) continue to play a defensive-minded game, with two DMs anchoring the team. Against Alaves, Simeone played Gabi, who was heroic in the CL Final, and Tiago, who played well in his first game back from a broken leg suffered last year. They did well: Alaves only had two shots on goal. But there was a sense that these two failed to create opportunities.

(b) switch to a more offensive team. Barcelona plays with one anchor, Busquets, and Real Madrid plays in a similar fashion with Casemiro linking the offense and defense. Atletico, conversely, opts for four midfielders instead of three.

Atletico came alive when Simeone switched to a more offensive style. For a while, I've been hoping Atletico would transition to a more attacking style, and this team, more so than last year, has the talent to do so. I'm hoping this game gives Simeone the impetus to transition to this style.
 

Zososoxfan

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Simeone should be technically astute enough to employ both schemes. He really runs a classic 4-4-2 with a double pivot in the middle, but as you said, it would be to the team's benefit to add a single pivot formation for weaker opposition. A 4-1-3-2 shouldn't be a huge departure since in defense it can become a 4-3-1-2, or a straight christmas tree (4-3-2-1) if he wants to stay more compact. It will likely look pretty similar either way and will shift more based on who the players are (e.g. Are Torres and Griezmann up top or is Gameiro in there? Can all 3 be on at the same time?).
 

bosox4283

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Good points, and thanks for this analysis.

I don't think Atletico can play Torres-Griezmann-Gameiro at the same time.

A 4-1-3-2 could be:

Gabi
Gaitan-Koke-Carrasco
Griezmann-Gameiro
 

bosox4283

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Atletico played my dream line-up today: Koke-Saul in the middle, with Gaitan and Carrasco on the wings. Sporting de Gijon was not good, so it's hard to say how effective this system was, but because Atletico won 5-0 it proved to be good today.

Atletico plays Barcelona on Wednesday, which is a huge match for Atletico if they want to compete for La Liga. Atletico must win one of the two matches to stay in the title hunt, but winning both or winning-drawing is a huge boost for the title run.

I'm guessing Simeone inserts Gabi back into the line-up, which means one of Gaitan or Carrasco will sit. I'm guessing Carrasco gets the start, with Koke-Gabi-Saul in the other spots. Griezmann and Gameiro will start up front.
 

bosox4283

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The reports from today's training were as I speculacted: Gabi will take Gaitan's place in the line-up.

Oblak
Juanfran-Savic-Godin-Luis
Carrasco-Gabi-Koke-Saul
Griezmann-Gameiro

For the first time in a long time, Simeone can trust his bench and has some interesting options. Tiago is out for a week or two with an injury, but Simeone has Augusto Fernandez who can solidify the defense while adding someone with sharp passing and who is strong with the ball. Correa offers an interesting offensive spark and Torres is a reliable and wise striker at this point. Gaitan offers creativity as an attack midfielder.
 

bosox4283

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Atletico ties Barcelona 1-1. A point at Camp Nou is a not a bad result, but I'm not excited, either. This Atletico team is talented, and Simeone has created a culture of success.

Simeone had a strange match. In one way, he learned from his Champions League defeat to Real Madrid. Losing 0-1, Simeone put both Correa (who should have played in the CL Final) and Torres on the pitch around the 60th minute. The team had four strikers for a spell: Torres, Correa, Griezmann, and Carrasco, with Gabi and Koke behind then.

The strange part is that Simeone opted for a 4-4-2 formation, moving Griezmann into the midfield. Even stranger, Simeone put on Thomas for Carrasco, rather than using Gaitan, a more creative player than Thomas.

In the end, Simeone almost played a 4-5-1, looking to stifle Barcelona and win the match on the contact.

I get it: Barcelona is immensely talented. But Barcelona was without Messi (off injured), Busquets (off injured), and Umiti (injured). Go for it, Cholo! Go for the win. Play aggressively. Use the talent. Por favor.
 

bosox4283

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Cholo took my advice and went with a more offensive set this game against Deportivo. Augusto-Koke-Gaitan-Carrasco started in the middle, with Correa-Griezmann up front.

It didn't work, though, in part because I think Gaitan is not yet playing to his potential, and because Carrasco can be on-and-off in the same match.

Atletico loses Augusto Fernandez, though, for most likely the rest of the season with an ACL injury.

I hope Tiago can be the important player he was before his injury last year. Alternatively, Koke or Saul can play closer to Gabi, which frees up a space in the midfield for Gaitan and/or Carrasco.
 

bosox4283

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Simeone said that Atletico's one-nil win over Bayern was his one of his team's best performances. He was right: it was fantastic. Atletico has had two shots off the post: a Torres header that he inexplicably didn't put it, and Griezmann's penalty off the crossbar. The team stayed back, per usual, but also mixed in a fair amount of pressing.

At one point, with the substitution of Gameiro for Carrasco, Atleti had three strikers on the pitch: Griezmann, Torres, and Gameiro. I'm not sure how Simeone arranged his team, but it's amazing to think Atletico played the game with this line-up.
 

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I always wonder, how can Atletico play like that vs. teams like Barca, Real, Bayern, in the deep CL rounds (or now in the group stage) and go full berserk for 100mins against them and then draw those mid- or lower league teams from LaLiga. I don´t see those league matches, so I have no idea about how they play. It´s obvious they can´t sit back vs. teams like Leganes(@) and Alaves(h), but they played many of the guys they played yesterday, too. Of course it was the start of the season, many guys coming late from national teams etc., but if they want to win the league, they have to win those matches, too.
You can´t play with a knife in your mouth for 60matches per season. But it´s great (sometimes annoying :) ) to see, that they can do it and switch to that style of grinding. Yes, I will hate it in the semifinals for the timewasting :)
 

bosox4283

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Atletico is now, for the time being, at the top of the table. Those two early-season ties against recently-promoted clubs Alaves and Leganes seem a lot time ago, especially after a stretch of games that included a one-one draw at Camp Nou and a victory over Bayern.

To respond to Schnerres: I think you're right -- Atletico cannot play with that intensity for 60 games even if Simeone will single-handily try to achieve this style of play.

Beyond effort, I think Atletico was adjusting in the first two matches. This year's squad has more offensive talent than Simeone has ever had. In addition, Simeone seems to have recognized that Tiago and Gabi, two of the team's linchpins for so long, are getting older and perhaps not able to gel with the fluid nature the young talent brings.

Augusto Fernandez's injury may be good for Atletico: it will force Simeone to use Saul and Koke next to Gabi in the middle, which opens up a spot for Gaitan and/or Carrasco.
 

bosox4283

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Atletico announced today the extension of Carrasco's contract until 2022 that includes a $100M buy-out clause. Good for Atleti, and good for him: the two seem to be a great match. The team is now really well positioned for the future.

 

bosox4283

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For the fourth consecutive year, Atletico moves onto the Round of 16 in the Champions League. An amazing time to be a fan. It's incredible what Simeone's done for the club.
 

bosox4283

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Simeone needs to give a few of his players a little more rest. Gabi, fortunately, gets about two weeks off with the upcoming international break. Filipe Luis could use a game off here or there, too.

When Augusto Fernandez when down with (basically) a season-ending knee injury, I thought his absence might force Simeone to play Koke and Saul more. So far, Simeone has moved in this direction, but I'm now seeing that Fernandez's injury prevents the team from moving into a more defensive-minded strategy when needed.

Tiago could still be that guy, but Simeone hasn't tried him much this year. Perhaps Tiago will start to get more minutes in Gabi's place.
 

bosox4283

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There has been a lot of ink spent on trying to pinpoint the reason for Altetico's inconsistency this season. For some fans and pundits, the solution is for Atletico to play the way they've played the last several years: two defensive midfielders anchoring the defensive and serving as the link to the wingers and strikers up front.

I don't agree. I think the team can use this formation here and there, but should not shy away from the more offensive-minded system Simeone has employed this year.

Goals/game in wins: 2.7 (30 goals in 11 matches)
Goals/game in losses and ties: .3 (2 goals in 6 matches)

The offensive structure has worked really well. I hope Simeone does not abandon his effort to stick with a stronger offense.
 

bosox4283

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When it rains, it pours. The rain: Atletico played a decent match against Villarreal, but two costly errors and poor finishing cost them the match. Well, those two factors, plus Villarreal is solid team.

The pouring: Oblak injured his shoulder, an injury that will require surgery and keep him out of action for three or four months. Ouch. He's a world-class keeper. It's a big burden for Moya to pick up. Here's hoping for the best.

The keeper doesn't matter that much if Simeone can't figure out what's wrong with the team. To date, Atletico has 1 point of 15 against the top five: tied Barcelona, losses to Real Madrid, Real Sociedad, Sevilla, and Villarreal. That's a shit first-half of the season.
 

bosox4283

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Simeone, to his credit, is trying to get creative with the team after an up-and-down first few months of the season.

Juanfran, the steady RB, seems to be showing his age a bit, but also Sime Vrsaljko, the 24-year-old Croatian RB from Sassuolo, has shown promise this year. As a result, Simeone is trying Sime at RB over Juanfran while moving Juanfran to the midfield.

What's interesting about the move is that this shows Simeone is not pleased with Gaitan, one of the year's top signings. Furthermore, this move also suggests that Simeone likes Carrasco but may not be getting everything he wants from the talented young player.
 

bosox4283

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Atletico's inconsistent season continues. It's hard to pinpoint what's wrong with this team. On same days, they've looked spectacular and better than last season. On other days, they've looked lost and played without their trademark defensive toughness and intensity.

It's possible that Godin has regressed a bit this year, maybe because of age, maybe simply because it's hard to be other-worldly for more than four (or five) years in a row. Savic and Gimenez have been a bit below peak form, too.

The team often plays as well as Koke and Gabi (and, sometimes, Saul) who have had a somewhat up-and-down season. I don't have any statistics to demonstrate their dip in form. I wish I could see more.

The offense goes in spurts. Griezmann can be on fire, like with his brilliant goal yesterday against Deportivo, and Gameiro can be playing well next to his countryman. But, some day, the offense just isn't firing. Correa and Carrasco, in particular, can have moments when they are electric but often struggle to help the flow of the team.
 

bosox4283

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All is well for Atletico. The team has made up a nine-point gap for third place in La Liga, and actually now stands three points up on Sevilla. Sevilla has certainly regressed a bit, but Atletico has improved its play in 2017.

In 22 matches in 2017, Atletico has only lost three times: to Barcelona in La Liga, to Barcelona in La Copa, and to Las Palmas in La Copa in the second leg when Atletico handily won the first.

Five wins in a row in La Liga has been incredibly important, both in terms of building confidence and getting back to third. In the middle, Koke, Gabi, and Saul have been on great form, which really anchors the team.
 

Zososoxfan

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All is well for Atletico. The team has made up a nine-point gap for third place in La Liga, and actually now stands three points up on Sevilla. Sevilla has certainly regressed a bit, but Atletico has improved its play in 2017.

In 22 matches in 2017, Atletico has only lost three times: to Barcelona in La Liga, to Barcelona in La Copa, and to Las Palmas in La Copa in the second leg when Atletico handily won the first.

Five wins in a row in La Liga has been incredibly important, both in terms of building confidence and getting back to third. In the middle, Koke, Gabi, and Saul have been on great form, which really anchors the team.
Hasn't Gameiro pairing with the Griezmann up top also helped immensely? It felt like over the past 1.5 seasons there were band aids, but now the most attacking part of the squad has been settled a bit.
 

bosox4283

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Hasn't Gameiro pairing with the Griezmann up top also helped immensely? It felt like over the past 1.5 seasons there were band aids, but now the most attacking part of the squad has been settled a bit.
In 2014-15, Atletico had Mandzukic (20 goals), Raul Garcia (10 goals), and Torres (6 goals).

In 2015-2016, the team had Torres (12 goals), Jackson Martinez (3 goals and sold to China mid-season), and Vietto (3 goals and loaned out this year to Sevilla).

So, clearly Gameiro is an improvement over last year's shitshow--this lack of production both shows how good Griezmann is and how impressive the team's run to the Champions League Final was relying on Torres--and about on pace to match Mandzukic's performance from two years ago.

Gameiro has 14 goals and 7 assists through 39 matches. Gameiro has been particularly effective alongside Griezmann; they play well togethe, and Gameiro frees up space for him.
 

bosox4283

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Atletico with an easy win over Osasuna this Saturday. Most importantly, five likely starters for the huge match against Leicester took the day off: Koke, Saul, Gabi, Griezmann, and Savic.

The only real decision Simeone has is to who to play alongside Griezmann: Gameiro, Torres, or Correa.

I think Simeone will start Torres since Correa can be really erractic and Gameiro is coming off an injury.
 

bosox4283

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Simeone will have to cobble together a team against Real Madrid for the first leg on Tuesday. Yikes.

Juanfran and Sime Vrsaljko, the two right backs, are out. They could make it back for the second leg, but the challenge is being in game-day condition since Juanfran has a three-week injury and Vrsaljko has been out for almost six weeks. As a result, Simeone is likely to play Gimenez, the CB, at right back.

Carrasco seems most likely to miss the first match, which forces Simeone to make some interesting choices.

The best thing that can happen is that Gameiro plays a great match this weekend against Las Palmas, and that he shows he's ready to start against Real Madrid.

Gimenez-Savid-Godin-Filipe
Koke-Gabi-Saul-XXX
Griezmann-Gameiro

The "XXX" would be Carrasco. If Juanfran/Vrsaljko were healthy, Simeone might put Gimenez in the middle next to Gabi -- can't do that. Gaitan might be chosen, but he's been, frankly, bad this year. Thomas, the 23-year-old Ghana midfielder, could be the surprise choice if Simeone is feeling really brave.

The nearly season-long injuries to Augusto Fernandez and Tiago are frustrating, but really frustrating as their injuries really limit Atletico's options against Real Madrid. Fernandez is still out while Tiago has played all of 20-30 minutes since December.

I'm going to guess Gaitan gets the start since he's the most natural fit and has the highest upside.

From the bench, Correa and Torres are the offensive weapons, with Tiago and Thomas as the two to stabilize the match.
 

Zososoxfan

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Simeone will have to cobble together a team against Real Madrid for the first leg on Tuesday. Yikes.

Juanfran and Sime Vrsaljko, the two right backs, are out. They could make it back for the second leg, but the challenge is being in game-day condition since Juanfran has a three-week injury and Vrsaljko has been out for almost six weeks. As a result, Simeone is likely to play Gimenez, the CB, at right back.

Carrasco seems most likely to miss the first match, which forces Simeone to make some interesting choices.

The best thing that can happen is that Gameiro plays a great match this weekend against Las Palmas, and that he shows he's ready to start against Real Madrid.

Gimenez-Savid-Godin-Filipe
Koke-Gabi-Saul-XXX
Griezmann-Gameiro

The "XXX" would be Carrasco. If Juanfran/Vrsaljko were healthy, Simeone might put Gimenez in the middle next to Gabi -- can't do that. Gaitan might be chosen, but he's been, frankly, bad this year. Thomas, the 23-year-old Ghana midfielder, could be the surprise choice if Simeone is feeling really brave.

The nearly season-long injuries to Augusto Fernandez and Tiago are frustrating, but really frustrating as their injuries really limit Atletico's options against Real Madrid. Fernandez is still out while Tiago has played all of 20-30 minutes since December.

I'm going to guess Gaitan gets the start since he's the most natural fit and has the highest upside.

From the bench, Correa and Torres are the offensive weapons, with Tiago and Thomas as the two to stabilize the match.
With how much Luis gets forward, Gimenez on the other side isn't the worst thing. With CRon slowing down, the RB doesn't need to be a speed demon. The bigger concern will be marking Marcelo, but I'm sure Simeone will have a plan to have the MF help on him.
 

bosox4283

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With how much Luis gets forward, Gimenez on the other side isn't the worst thing. With CRon slowing down, the RB doesn't need to be a speed demon. The bigger concern will be marking Marcelo, but I'm sure Simeone will have a plan to have the MF help on him.
Good point about Filipe Luis being the one to push forward with Gimenez staying back.
 

bosox4283

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Good news: Gameiro looked sharp against Las Palmas, so he'll start versus Real Madrid. It was essential that Gameiro recover his form since he's a better option than Torres and Correa.

Good news: Carrasco looks like his shoulder is well enough that he'll be included in the matchday squad.

Good news: Gaitan played a good match against Las Palmas. Gaitan, when playing well, gives Simeone another tactical variation in the midfield, one is that is more about offensive creativity and ball control.

Bad news: Gimenez went down with a muscle injury. He was the emergency third RB option. So Simeone has to go to his fourth option.

We're now likely to see: Savic-Godin-Lucas-Filipe in the back. My guess is that these four have never played together.
 

Zososoxfan

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Good news: Gameiro looked sharp against Las Palmas, so he'll start versus Real Madrid. It was essential that Gameiro recover his form since he's a better option than Torres and Correa.

Good news: Carrasco looks like his shoulder is well enough that he'll be included in the matchday squad.

Good news: Gaitan played a good match against Las Palmas. Gaitan, when playing well, gives Simeone another tactical variation in the midfield, one is that is more about offensive creativity and ball control.

Bad news: Gimenez went down with a muscle injury. He was the emergency third RB option. So Simeone has to go to his fourth option.

We're now likely to see: Savic-Godin-Lucas-Filipe in the back. My guess is that these four have never played together.
Good lord that's crazy. One reason I like Atleti's chances against RM is because Godin is such a good organizer and a force in the air. More than any other team (certainly non-EPL division) in my recent memory, RM is just fierce attacking crosses in the air. With so many teams now attacking through the middle at all costs, it almost seems like a throwback.
 

bosox4283

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Whatever happens next week against Real Madrid, this season will be a success for Atletico:

1. Finish 3/4 in La Liga, with a strong chance to finish third.
2. Go far in Champions League. In semifinals again for third time in four years.
3. Go far in La Copa del Rey. Lost to Barcelona in the semifinals but played an impressive two legs against them.

I still wish Atletico had played this year with a healthy Tiago and a healthy Augusto. The two would have given the team more depth to rest players and more options to structure the team.