Barmore stays a Patriot: 4 years/up to $92 million extension

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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“Maximum value” implies incentives. We should know in the next few days.

This is turning out to be a silent but significant shift in how the Patriots are doing business. They have a very significant amount of incentives floating out there. I wonder how they are accounting for them? Maybe they have some kind of rudimentary algorithm. Bill didn’t do too much of this. He probably preferred cap certainty. The Patriots are doing deals that allow players to bet on themselves.

Incentives make me a little leery, because they can threaten to pit coaches against players at the end of the year. But by and large this seems to be the new normal for the club.

It is also something to take into account when looking at cap space — it may be misleading since so many of these incentives have been NLTBE.
Just following up a bit even though it’s only indirectly related to Barmore, but Miguel reported today that almost all of the $1 million plus incentives for Hooper are NLTBE. This is definitely a thing the Patriots are doing.
 

Pat Spillane

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Feb 12, 2021
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They have retained the core players from a lousy team, which I think makes sense, but are they much improved? This still looks like a 6-7 win team, to me.

They probably are but thats progress. We were in dire need of a total rebuild. This draft is the start of that. If we get a top 10 pick thats possibly a no1 receiver or a building block OL player. The Cam Newton/Mac Joes era was always middle of the pack at best. Happy with the direction the franchise is taking. Will be patient and watch it build.We have become used to unprecedented success that Tom Brady brought to the club. Its not possible to hit lightning twice there but we are starting the foundations of the next playoff team. Who knows where that will go but it is better than bringing in Tannehill/Calvin Ridley and hoping to squeeze in and get knocked out first round
 

SuperManny

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They have retained the core players from a lousy team, which I think makes sense, but are they much improved? This still looks like a 6-7 win team, to me.
I like the Maye pick and I agree with most of the roster moves, outside of not putting more resources into LT, but most of the money has been spent signing players they already had on the roster. Hopefully the improved QB play will make a large impact but I'm skeptical this team finishes with more than 6 wins.

Betting sites have the Pats win total this season between 4.5 - 5.5 depending on the site so there's money to be made if you think they are even a 6 win team.
 

astrozombie

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Sep 12, 2022
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I doubt the team finishes with more than 6 wins, but I am honestly okay with that because at least there is a plan going forward (build around Maye). If they get 6 wins and use next year's draft to invest in some more key pieces, at least they are moving forward. The idea that every team can go worst to first like the Texans or Bengals happens but is rare. I would rather take a couple of years and build up a contending team than have a terrible year and hope to win the lottery.
The issue with the Mac Jones era is that they kept going backwards; the team got worse as they went on. I am not going to bother re-hashing whose fault that is, but the record is what it is. I am willing to give the team the benefit of the doubt that they can go from 3 wins to 6 to hopefully more as they continue to rebuild.
 

lexrageorge

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I doubt the team finishes with more than 6 wins, but I am honestly okay with that because at least there is a plan going forward (build around Maye). If they get 6 wins and use next year's draft to invest in some more key pieces, at least they are moving forward. The idea that every team can go worst to first like the Texans or Bengals happens but is rare. I would rather take a couple of years and build up a contending team than have a terrible year and hope to win the lottery.
The issue with the Mac Jones era is that they kept going backwards; the team got worse as they went on. I am not going to bother re-hashing whose fault that is, but the record is what it is. I am willing to give the team the benefit of the doubt that they can go from 3 wins to 6 to hopefully more as they continue to rebuild.
They won 4 games last season, so they're already 33% of the way to 6.

Realistically, it would take any 4-win team in the NFL a couple of drafts and offseason signings to become a true playoff contender. And I think that will be the case here as well, although obviously such improvement is by no means guaranteed. So may as well enjoy the ride and see how the team's draftees over the past couple of seasons progress.
 

BigSoxFan

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They won 4 games last season, so they're already 33% of the way to 6.

Realistically, it would take any 4-win team in the NFL a couple of drafts and offseason signings to become a true playoff contender. And I think that will be the case here as well, although obviously such improvement is by no means guaranteed. So may as well enjoy the ride and see how the team's draftees over the past couple of seasons progress.
True but last year’s coach was Bill Belichick and this year’s is a guy who’s never coached an NFL game. On the bright side, I think the talent has been upgraded, certainly at the most important position, and we should hopefully get much better injury luck on defense with key guys like Judon, Gonzo, and Marcus Jones.

Agree that this year is all about the process and they might surprise some people if Maye can hang sooner than expected.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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They have retained the core players from a lousy team, which I think makes sense, but are they much improved? This still looks like a 6-7 win team, to me.
Eh. The value might not be all that in terms of the near future, but they kept the best of the lousy team and don't have to worry about filling those spots a year or two from now with players who might not be as good.
 

Cellar-Door

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They have retained the core players from a lousy team, which I think makes sense, but are they much improved? This still looks like a 6-7 win team, to me.
I don't know how improved they'll be, but many of the guys retained were also key players in a season they went 8-9 and/or the season they went 10-7.
The big driver this year on wins will likely be how much they improved QB (hard to say), and how healthy they are, especially on the O-line. The two largest factors in last year's collapse from mediocre to really bad were QB play and health (which effected O-line play particularly hard)
 
Oct 12, 2023
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True but last year’s coach was Bill Belichick and this year’s is a guy who’s never coached an NFL game. On the bright side, I think the talent has been upgraded, certainly at the most important position, and we should hopefully get much better injury luck on defense with key guys like Judon, Gonzo, and Marcus Jones.

Agree that this year is all about the process and they might surprise some people if Maye can hang sooner than expected.
Other than QB, where they went from horrific to below average (assuming Brissett is the starter), I don’t know that the veteran FA moves were a net upgrade so any improvement is going to come from better health, young veteran guys developing (offset by old veterans declining though) and whatever they get out of the rookie class.

The injury luck stuff doesn’t really move the needle I don’t think. Yes getting Judon and Gonzalez back is big but other teams will get their key players back too and how many extra wins does having Judon/Gonzalez actually get them last year? It’s not like defense was the issue outside of two games.

The Pats winning more than 6 games will really come down to avoiding decline on defense from age (Judon, J.Jones), avoiding “Belichick guys” like Tavai and Peppers regressing back to their pre-Patriots level, continuing to get excellent coaching on defense and having the offense take a big step forward with AVP and rookie contributors. That’s a lot of things that need to break right for them, especially with a glaring hole at LT and a potential problem at C.
 
Oct 12, 2023
752
I don't know how improved they'll be, but many of the guys retained were also key players in a season they went 8-9 and/or the season they went 10-7.
The big driver this year on wins will likely be how much they improved QB (hard to say), and how healthy they are, especially on the O-line. The two largest factors in last year's collapse from mediocre to really bad were QB play and health (which effected O-line play particularly hard)
Coaching will be perhaps the biggest driver barring Maye being a rookie sensation. The offense will likely be bad, so the defensive coaching is going to need to steal a few wins in 10-6 or 17-10 type games.
 

Cellar-Door

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Other than QB, where they went from horrific to below average (assuming Brissett is the starter), I don’t know that the veteran FA moves were a net upgrade so any improvement is going to come from better health, young veteran guys developing (offset by old veterans declining though) and whatever they get out of the rookie class.

The injury luck stuff doesn’t really move the needle I don’t think. Yes getting Judon and Gonzalez back is big but other teams will get their key players back too and how many extra wins does having Judon/Gonzalez actually get them last year? It’s not like defense was the issue outside of two games.

The Pats winning more than 6 games will really come down to avoiding decline on defense from age (Judon, J.Jones), avoiding “Belichick guys” like Tavai and Peppers regressing back to their pre-Patriots level, continuing to get excellent coaching on defense and having the offense take a big step forward with AVP and rookie contributors. That’s a lot of things that need to break right for them, especially with a glaring hole at LT and a potential problem at C.
I think if they have injury luck it moves the needle a lot. They went through like 9 starting O-linemen between injury and illness, missed basically all of pre-season being able to work as a unit and never really had a set group there. Other than QB, O-line health is usually the biggest health impact on team success across the league.
 

ShaneTrot

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The Pats lost 8 one score games last year. The offense and their kicker were atrocious, the defense was good but didn't force a lot of turnovers and they were put in a lot of bad situations by the offense. They had 29 TOs and forced 18. I am not saying they are going to be awesome this year but we forget how putrid this team was last year. I am hoping for this 2024 team not to be tied with Carolina as the lowest scoring team in the NFL.
 

Pandemonium67

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It doesn't make sense to look at moves like the Barmore extension and complain that they still look like a 5-win team.

The question is whether they're better with Barmore or without him. The answer is obvious.

You've gotta try to improve by getting better players. At the same time, you try not to get any worse by retaining the good ones you've already got.
 

johnmd20

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It doesn't make sense to look at moves like the Barmore extension and complain that they still look like a 5-win team.

The question is whether they're better with Barmore or without him. The answer is obvious.

You've gotta try to improve by getting better players. At the same time, you try not to get any worse by retaining the good ones you've already got.
Seriously. Having less good players is a recipe for another 4 win season.

Teams need good players. If you have a chance to keep a good player, you do it. Because teams need good players, not scrubs.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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PFT has the details. Looks like $84 million in new money, with incentives.

Miguel has the cap numbers as: 2024 $6.5m, 2025 $15.1m, 2026 17.1m (potential out with $12.8m dead money), 2027 $23.6m, 2028 $23.6m. His 2024 salary does not go up, and the signing bonus ($18m) gets spread over the full 5 years, so that's why his 2024 cap number stays relatively low.

So, an increase to the 2024 cap of about $3.5 million and then the big hits come in 2027 and 2028, but the Patriots have an out after 3 years that probably will result in a restructure if he's still playing well. The incentives start in 2025, and are pretty high -- $2m a year, including pro bowl, playing more than 55 percent of the snaps, and 10 sacks.

This looks really team friendly to me. Barmore gets a $40 million guaranteed pay day and much of the cash now (though some of the guarantee is spread out). But he really gave us a lot in exchange for buying out his last rookie year.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/inside-the-christian-barmore-deal