Best Rookie QB today

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Daniels is playing with a lot of confidence. The game is already slowing down for him. Hopefully Maye stays upright long enough for us to see him experience the same! I already think Maye has the most talent in the class from what we've seen. He's the total package. Runs and throws at an elite level.
Daniels has also enjoyed by far the best situation in terms of coaching and surrounding personnel. Four of five Commanders OL have played 97% or more of snaps, the other spot has been a rotation between two guys. The five OL they've relied on the most are all seasoned pros with a lot of time in the league. He's handing off to two very good RB, has a #1 WR to target, and a bunch of veteran secondary targets.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Daniels has also enjoyed by far the best situation in terms of coaching and surrounding personnel. Four of five Commanders OL have played 97% or more of snaps, the other spot has been a rotation between two guys. The five OL they've relied on the most are all seasoned pros with a lot of time in the league. He's handing off to two very good RB, has a #1 WR to target, and a bunch of veteran secondary targets.
This might help too, defenses he's played and their current ranks in scoring/yards given up:

Giants: 15th/18th
Bears: 5th/12th
Panthers: 32nd/32nd
Ravens: 23rd/21st
Browns: 18th/15th
Cardinals: 19th/25th
Bengals: 25th/19th
Giants: 15th/18th
Bucs: 27th/30th

And of note, the "good" defenses he's faced, if you can call them that, the Giants, Bears and Browns are literally 3 of the worst offenses in the NFL as far as scoring and yards gained, (Bears are 19th in scoring, but 28th in yards on offense, Giants are 32/26 and the Browns are 28/31), so their offenses aren't on the field much, giving the Commanders and Daniels good field position and opportunities.

I love what Daniels has shown so far, but the stars have aligned, with opponents, health, cohesion on his offensive line, etc. for him in a way that hasn't happened for any of the other rookie QB's.
 

DJnVa

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Updated numbers:

Caleb Williams: 178/294, 60.5%, 1785 yards, 9/5 TD/INT, 81.0 rating, 236 rushing yards, 4.2 sacks/game
Jayden Daniels: 180/262, 68.7%, 2147 yards, 9/2 TD/INT, 101.7 rating, 464 rushing yards, 4 TDs, 2.0 sacks/game
Drake Maye: 97/150, 64.7%, 954 yards, 7/5 TD/INT, 84.1 rating, 233 rushing yards, 1 TD, 2.3 sacks/game
Bo Nix: 206/324, 63.6%, 1968 yards, 10/6 TD/INT, 82.9 rating, 290 yards, 4 TDs, 1.7 sacks/game


Caleb now has the worst numbers, despite all the talk about the situation he was dropped into. I wish we could see what he could do with Drake's weapons.
 

BaseballJones

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Daniels clearly has had the best rookie season, but I'll happily claim that - despite playing a lot fewer games - Maye has been the second-best QB in this year's class so far. Nix has some better numbers in some ways of course.
 

Cellar-Door

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Caleb now has the worst numbers, despite all the talk about the situation he was dropped into. I wish we could see what he could do with Drake's weapons.
One thing I've noticed... it seems like way too many people who should know better (even some of the better national people) got suckered into the "WEAPONZ" discussion. There are probably 3 keys to a rookie QB being put in position to succeed...
1. O-line
2. Coaching
3. Weapons.

And really you can rank the top 2 however you want, but weapons is a distant third. Now some of those people thought the Bears O-line was going to be good, but.... terrible OC behind a defensive HC who doesn't touch the offense, a line that has cratered (yes injuries, but they were bad to start and their bench Ts are terrible).
 

Van Everyman

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There are probably 3 keys to a rookie QB being put in position to succeed...
1. O-line
2. Coaching
3. Weapons.
2021 Mac Jones says hi.

I actually think there’s at least a case to be made that you don’t really know what you have in a QB until at least 2 of those go to shit. As 2021 showed us, there’s some danger in drawing too many conclusions a little too early. You might argue the same with a guy like Daniel Jones, tho I’m not 100% certain what went wrong with the Giants starting in year 2.

That said, Maye has shown that he can carry a bad squad to a semblance of competitiveness. It’s hard to believe his situation could be that much worse than it has been, so you’d hope this would be his floor.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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One thing I've noticed... it seems like way too many people who should know better (even some of the better national people) got suckered into the "WEAPONZ" discussion. There are probably 3 keys to a rookie QB being put in position to succeed...
1. O-line
2. Coaching
3. Weapons.

And really you can rank the top 2 however you want, but weapons is a distant third. Now some of those people thought the Bears O-line was going to be good, but.... terrible OC behind a defensive HC who doesn't touch the offense, a line that has cratered (yes injuries, but they were bad to start and their bench Ts are terrible).
Yeah, the Bears OL is almost entirely broken at the moment. Williams holds the ball too long at times, but he had no chance yesterday.
 

Cellar-Door

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2021 Mac Jones says hi.

I actually think there’s at least a case to be made that you don’t really know what you have in a QB until at least 2 of those go to shit. As 2021 showed us, there’s some danger in drawing too many conclusions a little too early. You might argue the same with a guy like Daniel Jones, tho I’m not 100% certain what went wrong with the Giants starting in year 2.

That said, Maye has shown that he can carry a bad squad to a semblance of competitiveness. It’s hard to believe his situation could be that much worse than it has been, so you’d hope this would be his floor.
Yeah, I think MAye has pretty good coaching, no real weapons and a bad O-line, which is why his performance is so encouraging.
 

BaseballJones

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By the numbers, its Daniels by a mile.

But I don't think I would trade Maye for him right now.
It sure feels like, unlike was the case with Mac, that we are pretty united in the opinion that the Pats have a very talented young QB in Drake Maye, who the team can really build around, and that with him in place and growing on the job, there is legit hope for the future for the Pats.
 

NortheasternPJ

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It sure feels like, unlike was the case with Mac, that we are pretty united in the opinion that the Pats have a very talented young QB in Drake Maye, who the team can really build around, and that with him in place and growing on the job, there is legit hope for the future for the Pats.
Put Drake Maye with Josh McDaniels on that team and I think he‘d be amazing.

I love what I’ve seen from Maye so far on that, it was discussed a lot in the game thread, but wow does Caleb Williams look awful. Everything about him from pocket awareness (none), to mechanics (sloppy at best) to his overall attitude. Seems like a disaster in the making.
 

rodderick

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By the numbers, its Daniels by a mile.

But I don't think I would trade Maye for him right now.
Yeah, Kliff Kingsbury offenses have a history of being figured out in the second half of seasons. Feels like Kyler Murray was a first half contender for MVP at least twice under him before fading down the stretch. I wonde how much Daniels has been propped up by scheme, even if he's been very impressive as a thrower.
 

FL4WL3SS

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Daniels clearly has had the best rookie season, but I'll happily claim that - despite playing a lot fewer games - Maye has been the second-best QB in this year's class so far. Nix has some better numbers in some ways of course.
The only differentiation is the interceptions honestly. If Drake can figure that out, he'll be right there with Daniels
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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It sure feels like, unlike was the case with Mac, that we are pretty united in the opinion that the Pats have a very talented young QB in Drake Maye, who the team can really build around, and that with him in place and growing on the job, there is legit hope for the future for the Pats.
Yup, and that feels pretty fucking good.

Yeah, Kliff Kingsbury offenses have a history of being figured out in the second half of seasons. Feels like Kyler Murray was a first half contender for MVP at least twice under him before fading down the stretch. I wonde how much Daniels has been propped up by scheme, even if he's been very impressive as a thrower.
Good point. It'll be interesting to see how Daniels does as the season wears on.

I've only watched a few of these games but statistically there's already been some pretty notable changes within the season for him. The first four games they played it very safe, having him rarely look anywhere downfield, a lot of stuff behind the LOS or within five yards, and a lot of QB runs. He was pretty immaculate in this stretch when they kept things very easy, completing 82% of his throws. Starting week 5 he has been throwing downfield more often, whether by design or because defenses adapted to the short stuff, and is completing a shade under 60% (although to his credit he has been very careful with the ball in terms of turning it over). He also ran a ton in the first five weeks, including four rushing TDs, and they've dialed that way back, whether by design after getting hit too often or defenses just taking it away.
 

benhogan

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Put me down on being unimpressed with Caleb Williams the half dozen times I've watched him play.

He loved the broken play, scramble around, hit a streaking WR at USC. Not really a classic NFL pocket passer

I must have it wrong, the experts love him
9 weeks later, still unimpressed with Caleb. The guy wants to scramble even when he gets protection.

FREE DJ Moore (sitting on my kids' fantasy bench after being a 5th-round pick)
 

Cellar-Door

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9 weeks later, still unimpressed with Caleb. The guy wants to scramble even when he gets protection.

FREE DJ Moore (sitting on my kids' fantasy bench after being a 5th-round pick)
My hot take.... he's not scrambling enough. He's moving in the pocket, but he's staying forever, seems pretty clear he's being coached to stay and wait for someone to get open. He should be taking off after 2 reads like Maye often does.
 

benhogan

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My hot take.... he's not scrambling enough. He's moving in the pocket, but he's staying forever, seems pretty clear he's being coached to stay and wait for someone to get open. He should be taking off after 2 reads like Maye often does.
Ha, you're probably right. I just feel for my kid and anyone who has rostered Allen and Odunze.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It’s a pretty clear Daniels 1 and Maye 2. That is the order I’d prefer them in NE too as Daniels still seems to have the higher ceiling. Having said that, since Daniels wasn’t an option we all have to be happy with what Maye has shown in rising about the turmoil and leading his team despite the obstacles.

I’m not pro-Mayo or anti-Mayo as a rookie coach taking over a program devoid of talent at multiple key positions so looking forward to seeing what we do in the spring and how we grow together next year. Let’s not forgot Browns fans booing Belichick as a rookie head coach too. There are growing pains with this.
 

NortheasternPJ

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It’s a pretty clear Daniels 1 and Maye 2. That is the order I’d prefer them in NE too as Daniels still seems to have the higher ceiling. Having said that, since Daniels wasn’t an option we all have to be happy with what Maye has shown in rising about the turmoil and leading his team despite the obstacles.

I’m not pro-Mayo or anti-Mayo as a rookie coach taking over a program devoid of talent at multiple key positions so looking forward to seeing what we do in the spring and how we grow together next year. Let’s not forgot Browns fans booing Belichick as a rookie head coach too. There are growing pains with this.
Daniels is also 2 years older with nearly 2 more full seasons under his belt in college. I wouldn't expect Maye to be where Daniels is at. I'm fine with Daniels at #1 right now, he's playing out of his mind and is awesome to watch. Maye comes out after 4 years of college, he's a clear #1 pick .
 

DJnVa

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Updated numbers

Caleb Williams: 201/325, 61.8%, 2016 yards, 9/5 TD/INT, 82.3 rating, 306 rushing yards
Jayden Daniels: 202/294, 68.7%, 2338 yards, 10/3 TD/INT, 99.6 rating, 482 rushing yards, 4 TDs
Drake Maye: 127/190, 66.8%, 1236 yards, 9/6 TD/INT, 87.5 rating, 260 rushing yards, 1 TD
Bo Nix: 234/357, 65.5%, 2275 yards, 14/6 TD/INT, 89.3 rating, 295 rushing yards, 4 TDs
 

johnmd20

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Nix right now is who everyone hoped Mac would be.

Keep in mind, he does have the highest paid OL and some good skill players around him.
He does not have good skill players around him. Williams is not good and Estime is a rookie who hasn't done anything. The best WR is Courtland Sutton. And they don't really have a TE.

OL might be good but their skill players are not exciting in any way.
 

Devizier

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Will say it’s been a great draft for quarterbacks, it would be something if Williams is the bust in that group (Penix and McCarthy obviously an incomplete).
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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He does not have good skill players around him. Williams is not good and Estime is a rookie who hasn't done anything. The best WR is Courtland Sutton. And they don't really have a TE.

OL might be good but their skill players are not exciting in any way.
True on skill players but "might be good" is underselling the point.

Its worth clicking through on the top graph to see just how highly the Broncos OL ranks on pass pro.

The rest of the thread also has some funny examples of Drake Maye making the Patriots OL look better than they seem by conventional stats like sacks allowed.

 
Last edited:

Ed Hillel

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He does not have good skill players around him. Williams is not good and Estime is a rookie who hasn't done anything. The best WR is Courtland Sutton. And they don't really have a TE.

OL might be good but their skill players are not exciting in any way.
I honestly forgot they traded Jeudy.

Either way, Payton and that OL count for a lot, though I was a huge fan of Nix. I think my official last hope pre-draft was drafting MHJ and trading down for Nix, but not only would that not have been possible without a second trade (Nix went too high), Maye is looking so good I’m not gonna complain. But Nix looks like another good one in a potentially generational QB draft class.
 

DJnVa

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Updated numbers

Caleb Williams: 201/325, 61.8%, 2016 yards, 9/5 TD/INT, 82.3 rating, 306 rushing yards
Jayden Daniels: 202/294, 68.7%, 2338 yards, 10/3 TD/INT, 99.6 rating, 482 rushing yards, 4 TDs
Drake Maye: 127/190, 66.8%, 1236 yards, 9/6 TD/INT, 87.5 rating, 260 rushing yards, 1 TD
Bo Nix: 234/357, 65.5%, 2275 yards, 14/6 TD/INT, 89.3 rating, 295 rushing yards, 4 TDs
Drake Maye pro-rated out to 325 attempts (the average of the other 3): 217/325, 66.8%, 2114 yards, 15/10 TD/INT, 87.5 rating, 444 rushing yards, 2 TDs
 

Marciano490

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I honestly forgot they traded Jeudy.

Either way, Payton and that OL count for a lot, though I was a huge fan of Nix. I think my official last hope pre-draft was drafting MHJ and trading down for Nix, but not only would that not have been possible without a second trade (Nix went too high), Maye is looking so good I’m not gonna complain. But Nix looks like another good one in a potentially generational QB draft class.
Promise I’m not trying to play gotcha, but during the Chargers game last night they flashed the 2020 draft class - Tua, Hurts, Herbert, Burrow - and I think that’ll be very hard to beat out for the best of this generation.
 

johnmd20

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Promise I’m not trying to play gotcha, but during the Chargers game last night they flashed the 2020 draft class - Tua, Hurts, Herbert, Burrow - and I think that’ll be very hard to beat out for the best of this generation.
2020 > 2021 that's for sure.

2021. What hath God wrought?
 

streeter88

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Promise I’m not trying to play gotcha, but during the Chargers game last night they flashed the 2020 draft class - Tua, Hurts, Herbert, Burrow - and I think that’ll be very hard to beat out for the best of this generation.
Hmm. I was surprised at that list. Just don’t think of Tua in the same class because the other three have really become the established faces of their teams whereas Tua is still a hold your breath kind of experience.
 

DanoooME

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I didn't get to see the whole game yesterday, but what I saw of Caleb Williams looked good. I think dumping Waldron and putting just about anyone else (Jones) in place really helped him right now. Caleb was making some good decisions and just looked more confident overall. The game plan seemed better too, although it's obvious there's still a lot of work needed. I really wasn't high on Williams like just about everyone else coming out of college, but if they get a good OC, they could make something out of him.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I'm going to take a victory lap. My first post about Drake Maye here was in January, 2023 where I was advocating for teams to blow it up, tank in 2023 to get into the Williams/Maye sweepstakes. One year ago, here's what I wrote about him:

I'm firmly in the Drake Maye camp at the current moment. I don't think any team is passing on Caleb at the #1 unless some truly fucked up shit, or injuries happens between now and draft day.

But when I watch Maye, I see a more polished version of Josh Allen than what Allen was at this stage. He's got that kind of arm, he moves around extremely well at his size, he can make throws on the move, etc.

This tape alone makes me salivate, and yes, I know it's highlights, but there is some special, special stuff in there:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E79mq3JHiW8


I like Daniels, but to me, his floor is much, much lower than Maye's. Now, if we can get Daniels and his buddy, Malik Nabers, and start with a college teammate relationship a la Tua/Waddle, or Hurts/Smith type, bring that on as well, but for now, I'm still firmly on Maye.
I fucking love this kid, and think he will easily surpass all of these guys when it's all said and done.

I just hope it all happens here and they give him what he needs around him to reach that potential.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I'm going to take a victory lap. My first post about Drake Maye here was in January, 2023 where I was advocating for teams to blow it up, tank in 2023 to get into the Williams/Maye sweepstakes. One year ago, here's what I wrote about him:

I fucking love this kid, and think he will easily surpass all of these guys when it's all said and done.

I just hope it all happens here and they give him what he needs around him to reach that potential.
That's a well deserved victory lap. Great call.

On the "hope it all happens here" point, we are fortunate that the NFL is designed to virtually ensure that any team drafting a franchise QB gets to keep them for 10+ years so long as they are willing to pay top dollar. As much as I'm down on Robert Kraft right now, I don't see his club being the first team to ever lose one of these guys unwillingly in free agency. And I also don't see Drake Maye being the kind of kid who is going to throw a huge stink and try to force his way out of town rather than signing a megadeal after year three like so many other QBs, even if the team continues to struggle for the next couple seasons.
 

j-man

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He does not have good skill players around him. Williams is not good and Estime is a rookie who hasn't done anything. The best WR is Courtland Sutton. And they don't really have a TE.

OL might be good but their skill players are not exciting in any way.
facts the only player he has is suttion who is a num 2 wr
 

Tony C

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Yep. I plead guilty to underrating Nix. He's impressive. And as a certified Sean Payton hater, also have to hand it to him for handling Nix just right.

Alas...but this is counterbalanced by the joy Aaron Rodgers has given this season.
 

j-man

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my 02

before the season
1 williams
2 daniels
3 maye
4 JJ
5 Pinex
6 nix

now
1 daniels
2 nix
3 maye
4 c williams

daniels has the most talent but thin frame plus his oc is likely gone as well means 25 is a ? mark dream comp Daniels = l jackson
nix is he mac jones 2021 or more like a teddy bridewater type dream ser is drew bress with speed which IF peyton is the broncos coach for the next 7-10 years couild happen nix = brees i really think payton has a mancrush on this guy
maye remind me of herbert LAC his q is can woif build up ne to where they are a 9-10 win team by 26 maye =herbert
c williams needs a new coaching staff right now he is baby mahomes but will not relies c williams = mahomes without the year on bench
JJ= remind me of a alex smith type qb
penix = b leftwcith
 

Justthetippett

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my 02

before the season
1 williams
2 daniels
3 maye
4 JJ
5 Pinex
6 nix

now
1 daniels
2 nix
3 maye
4 c williams

daniels has the most talent but thin frame plus his oc is likely gone as well means 25 is a ? mark dream comp Daniels = l jackson
nix is he mac jones 2021 or more like a teddy bridewater type dream ser is drew bress with speed which IF peyton is the broncos coach for the next 7-10 years couild happen nix = brees i really think payton has a mancrush on this guy
maye remind me of herbert LAC his q is can woif build up ne to where they are a 9-10 win team by 26 maye =herbert
c williams needs a new coaching staff right now he is baby mahomes but will not relies c williams = mahomes without the year on bench
JJ= remind me of a alex smith type qb
penix = b leftwcith
Can't say I agree but I like your optimism on Nix as a Broncos fan. He's on a bit of a heater but I still think will be overmatched when it matters and the league catches up on tape a bit. But both he and Peyton deserve credit so far.
 

DJnVa

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I'm going to take a victory lap. My first post about Drake Maye here was in January, 2023 where I was advocating for teams to blow it up, tank in 2023 to get into the Williams/Maye sweepstakes. One year ago, here's what I wrote about him:



I fucking love this kid, and think he will easily surpass all of these guys when it's all said and done.

I just hope it all happens here and they give him what he needs around him to reach that potential.
I have a text I sent to a fellow Pats fan last October lamenting a Pats loss and said "But Drake Maye looked good yesterday!"

Literally all I care about this season is Maye finishing healthy and, for lack of a better phrase, trying some shit. Make mistakes, take chances, try weird game plans. Just see what works. Then in offseason they get him some protection and some weapons.
 

j-man

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Can't say I agree but I like your optimism on Nix as a Broncos fan. He's on a bit of a heater but I still think will be overmatched when it matters and the league catches up on tape a bit. But both he and Peyton deserve credit so far.
he has had 11 starts been really good in the last 2 games he has done amazing when u consider only suttion would start for most Good AFC teams at WR/TE and WR is the easyest spot to draft and delovping for most teams ie u can find a star wr in the middle rounds like vele this year for ex
as long as denver def does not nosedive next season next season starts a 4 year window where denver can start to be a yearly playoff team see New Orl 2016-2018
 

Ed Hillel

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Promise I’m not trying to play gotcha, but during the Chargers game last night they flashed the 2020 draft class - Tua, Hurts, Herbert, Burrow - and I think that’ll be very hard to beat out for the best of this generation.
Dang, that is a really good class. But I do think this one has the talent to compete and possibly surpass. Williams would be the big question at the moment.
 

Steve Dillard

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My only metric for judging is that I don't feel jealous of the other teams. Whether that means Maye>Daniels>Williams, I don't know. But I'll take ours and feel equally equipped to beat yours.
 

Marciano490

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Dang, that is a really good class. But I do think this one has the talent to compete and possibly surpass. Williams would be the big question at the moment.
Penix and JJ could make this year’s 6 deep. Someone pointed out correctly I forgot Love, but even with him that gives 2020 just 5 guys.
 

BaseballJones

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By far the number one goal for this season was to develop Drake Maye. Everything else is totally secondary or even tertiary. Next in line was the development of Jerod Mayo as head coach.

The jury is out on the latter, but the former is obviously going on swimmingly. That makes this a majorly successful season.
 

DJnVa

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This article is being discussed a bit in the Maye thread: NFL rookie quarterback grades, plus Daniel Jones' future - ESPN

Grades:

Williams: C+. He's getting sacked on more than 30% of this pressured dropbacks. The list of QBs that happens too is not inspiring, but does include Bailey Zappe!
Daniels: A. His numbers have even out a little after his injury. So, he should bounce back, but his potentially being injury prone due to body type is a worry.
Maye: A. Super accurate, no help. Ball security is an issue, but correctable.
Nix: B-. He's a counting stats stud. While his play has improved, he's still doing much better in blowout situations, and they're unsure if his recent uptick is just some great playcalling mixed with bad defenses. 300 yards on 4 air yards per attempt is framed as a play caller win, not QB win.