Betts/Price to LA for Verdugo/Jeter Downs/TBA

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CSteinhardt

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I really liked the original trade from a baseball point of view. I understand wanting to watch Mookie play the remainder of his career in Boston, but it's precisely this sort of thinking which has led to the contracts which put us in this situation. The likelihood of Mookie significantly outproducing the contract he will get as a free agent is very, very low. The likelihood that he does so in the first few years is small but not quite zero; the last few years are likely to be crippling.

Moreover, paying fair value for free agents is actually a loss for a contending team. If one pays, say, $9M per WAR for every WAR on the roster, then even a $225M budget produces a sub-.500 team. The extra 15-20 wins to be a playoff team, or perhaps even 25 wins to win this division, need to come from players who are underpaid. And because of limited playing time, that really isn't spread over 26 players, but rather primarily over more like 15. After all, a reliever throwing 70 innings is very unlikely to produce 5 WAR, let alone 5 additional on top of their salary.

From that point of view, turning one additional year of Mookie into Verdugo and the prospect we expected Graterol to be would have been a massive win for us in terms of our ability to build a team going forward. In truth, turning one year of Mookie plus Price into Verdugo is probably a good team-building decision, so getting a high-end prospect in addition would have been excellent. And this is true independent of the luxury tax; the prospect of paying Mookie an extra 50% on top simply makes the numbers that much more difficult. I have absolutely no hesitation in believing that this ownership group will spend money to win in Boston; everything they have done in the past suggests that budget cuts are for the purpose of long-term team building, not to put extra cash in their pockets this year.

OK, so what next? Given that there was an agreement, I'd certainly want to push for value equivalent to a healthy Graterol. But IMO, the original deal was too good to be true, so if the end result is that LA gives up a prospect but of lesser value than Graterol, I think we will still have done quite well.
 

Cellar-Door

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Verdugo is still the centerpiece... if he pans out he will outproduce Mookie & Price easily over his controllable years vs. Mookie's 2020 and Price's 20-22

people are undervaluing Verdugo heavily (but admittedly his makeup makes him more likely to bust in Boston which is petrifying)
Easily?
I mean, he put up around what Price does in WAR last year, that's abut 1/3rd of what Mookie gets in a season (about 1/5th of his best seasons).
Not sure there's any real reason to think he easily outproduces 3 years of Price and 1 year of Mookie.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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While a very different set of circumstances, this seems eerily reminiscent of the failed A-Rod trade. So I kind of expect the Yankees to get involved now.

Mookie has said since the news broke that he wanted to stay, so maybe they can test that theory now. The question to me is how they deal with Price? They can't keep him and he's even less likely to want to stay now.

The most disappointing aspect to this is we'll never have a thread about Graterol's contract called "Brusdar's Millions."
 

Cokes311

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Easily?
I mean, he put up around what Price does in WAR last year, that's abut 1/3rd of what Mookie gets in a season (about 1/5th of his best seasons).
Not sure there's any real reason to think he easily outproduces 3 years of Price and 1 year of Mookie.
He's projecting what, 4 WAR x 4 vs 8 WAR x 1 + 2 WAR x 3?

feels like a real stretch
 

Tyrone Biggums

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While a very different set of circumstances, this seems eerily reminiscent of the failed A-Rod trade. So I kind of expect the Yankees to get involved now.

Mookie has said since the news broke that he wanted to stay, so maybe they can test that theory now. The question to me is how they deal with Price? They can't keep him and he's even less likely to want to stay now.
Well I mean technically they can do whatever the hell they want with Price. He's under contract for another 3 years. I still think it's going to get done but Friedman is going to have to suck it up and trade prospects.
 

nighthob

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Why would the Twins back out? Do they just not want it known their prized arm has shoulder issues?
Because LA is refusing to make up the difference in trade and the Twins have no intentions of paying even more for Maeda, so now they need to move on and find another starter.
 

joyofsox

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Wait: Neal's article says the Twins might walk away. The headline said Graterol might stay with Minnesota. (Also, a big FU to Neal for 1999.)

It's a little odd that Neal's editor is saying it's a done deal (so to speak).
 

amRadio

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People defending the Verdugo as the potential centerpiece seem to be in denial about his back problems and his maturity problems. As well as exaggerating his offensive potential. The Red Sox should hold out for a viable SP prospect. If they don't get it, they still have probably a top 5 team talent-wise. If Sale is healthy, they could make a serious run and reset next offseason. I think the penalties for doing so have been greatly exaggerated by SOSH. I also think a playoff opportunity is greatly discounted by many around here.
 

amfox1

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Because you can probably still trade him for two injured players at the deadline? Lots of teams have injured players to trade. Including Boston.
Witty, but it doesn't accomplish much to trade Betts at the deadline. The team needs to cut $25mm. By the deadline 2/3 of the season is over.
 

ookami7m

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San Deigo Padres - come on down! Right? The Padres have to jump back in on this now I'd imagine, or does Bloom roll with the wait for July card?
 

Cokes311

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Some sources are saying the Twins are out, some are saying the Twins are still in

Who benefits from making each of those statements if they're true, who benefits from making each of those statements if they're false? Because one has to be true and one has to be false.
 

EvilEmpire

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Why? They are one prospect away from adding the 2nd best player in baseball, and have a very deep farm. They'd also add a a quality starter to their rotation, (and he'll be the #3 not the Ace) and doing so at a pretty decent price.

Why did A 103 win Ys team add Cole, To win the ALCS?

OK I buy that.

The Dodgers haven't won a WS in 30 years, have lost 2 of the last 3 WS, But the odds of winning increases significantly with Betts and Price for 2 prospects.

Lose the trade, but win the war.
I don't think the Dodgers odds of winning the World Series increases significantly with Betts and Price next year. I'm not sure the Dodgers really want Price, even subsidized. That seems like the cost of doing business to get one year of Mookie. Roll with Verdugo and see what happens. If they fall short again, any anger from fans will be mollified by going hard after Mookie next off season.

I mean, you even say "lose the trade, but win the war". Why do the Dodgers need to add more and lose the trade when they already have a great team and there are no guarantees in the post season anyway?
 

jon abbey

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I don't think the Dodgers odds of winning the World Series increases significantly with Betts and Price next year. I'm not sure the Dodgers really want Price, even subsidized. That seems like the cost of doing business to get one year of Mookie. Roll with Verdugo and see what happens. If they fall short again, any anger from fans will be mollified by going hard after Mookie next off season.

I mean, you even say "lose the trade, but win the war". Why do the Dodgers need to add more and lose the trade when they already have a great team and there are no guarantees in the post season anyway?
They don't need to but they, like NY, really could use a good consolidation trade or two because they have too many assets to fully utilize themselves. Neither Friedman nor Cashman has been good at making this kind of deal, though, as both seem to find it hard to switch out of stockpiling assets mode.
 

sean1562

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I dont understand why the Ddogers dont just throw in Jeter Downs? Isnt he blocked by Lux and the guy they got form the Angels?
 

nighthob

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Tangential, but I honestly feel like Dominguez going to NY and all the hype that followed was the straw that got DD fired.
I think what got him caned was Boston’s inability to patch from the minors. Their international signing philosophy in the post-Flores environment was to prioritize quantity over quality in hopes that some of the lottery tickets would pan out, but those guys progress more slowly through the system.

This year they tried to split the difference a little, and were more careful about keeping dry powder for some mid-range signings. So it looks like another shift in international signing philosophy is coming, but it was too little too late for Dombrowski.
 

redsoxedmunds24

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The part I don’t understand is at what point does the luxury tax cost the Sox when it comes to the draft and international spending?
 

The Gray Eagle

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FWIW, everyone's favorite trade toy:

Says that Betts and a completely unsubsidized Price for Pollock, Gonsolin and Edwin Uceta "works."
If LA wanted to pay less for Price they could throw in some lottery tickets.
 

nighthob

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Sure they can, then they'll be out of the FA market next offseason, too.
They’re going to be out of the free agent market for a few years anyway until they shed the Sale and Eovaldi deals even if they give away Betts and Price today. They’re going into remain a winning team while rebuilding the system mode.
 

NomarsFool

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Some reports seem to be suggesting the Sox are asking for another prospect, in addition to Graterol. If that's the case, I can certainly see why the Twins would be annoyed and walk away.

What I don't understand is, how the Twins wouldn't have another prospect of similar caliber to Graterol they could send instead. As has been reported, these deals very often have a component of "Pick 1 of these 3 players and 1 of these 3 players". If Graterol was the #10 prospect for the Twins (just throwing out a number), I'm surprised they can't just offer the #8, #9, #11, or #12 and ask them to pick one. It hardly seems like the difference in the prospects would be that huge.
 

Cokes311

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do you think that the people involved in the talks who think the "negative media reaction" was about Verdugo and Graterol have even considered that the problem wasn't who was being received in the trade?
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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At this point if I'm Sox I would insist on one of LA's top prospects; if not just hold until deadline even though that does mess up getting under the threshold
 

EvilEmpire

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They don't need to but they, like NY, really could use a good consolidation trade or two because they have too many assets to fully utilize themselves. Neither Friedman nor Cashman has been good at making this kind of deal, though, as both seem to find it hard to switch out of stockpiling assets mode.
I absolutely agree. I think Friedman would rather try to use his substantial prospect depth to add pieces that extend the Dodgers window of competition out as far as possible. Mookie doesn't do that. The Dodgers are already competitive next year, even without Mookie.

Bigger window = more opportunities to win it all. Counting on Mookie and Price to put them over the top for one year seems unwise. Lots can happen in one season, even if Mookie and Price perform well. Bad injury luck with their rotation could easily doom them early.

But yeah, he obviously wants to get Mookie for next year if the price makes sense for him. I think he values Verdugo more than the Sox do. And that's fine. Friedman's been very successful in LA. I think he trusts his valuations.
 

nighthob

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Some reports seem to be suggesting the Sox are asking for another prospect, in addition to Graterol. If that's the case, I can certainly see why the Twins would be annoyed and walk away.

What I don't understand is, how the Twins wouldn't have another prospect of similar caliber to Graterol they could send instead. As has been reported, these deals very often have a component of "Pick 1 of these 3 players and 1 of these 3 players". If Graterol was the #10 prospect for the Twins (just throwing out a number), I'm surprised they can't just offer the #8, #9, #11, or #12 and ask them to pick one. It hardly seems like the difference in the prospects would be that huge.
They do, but they’re not acquiring an ace in this trade, they’re acquiring a 32 year old pitcher that they hope can make 30 starts without getting the tar slapped out of him. They feel that Graterol is sufficient value for that, and don’t want to give up a better player.
 

PseuFighter

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i for one find it strange that "negative media reaction" is to blame (and not, say, fan reaction and a complete likely halt to ticket sales) especially when the team literally owns the boston globe.
 

amRadio

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Kyle Wright should at no point be considered part of a return that would make the Red Sox whole. Verdugo plus Wright would be an awful return. In 21 starts at AAA last year he was average. He has inconsistent command and often gets hit hard in between stellar starts in the minors. He's a 24 year old college prospect who was not stellar in college to the level where I would expect many pro scouts to project serious improvement at the upper levels. What do I know though? This would be very disappointing compared to what Graterol had the potential to be.
 

bankshot1

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I don't think the Dodgers odds of winning the World Series increases significantly with Betts and Price next year. I'm not sure the Dodgers really want Price, even subsidized. That seems like the cost of doing business to get one year of Mookie. Roll with Verdugo and see what happens. If they fall short again, any anger from fans will be mollified by going hard after Mookie next off season.

I mean, you even say "lose the trade, but win the war". Why do the Dodgers need to add more and lose the trade when they already have a great team and there are no guarantees in the post season anyway?
If your argument is the Dodgers will not be a signiicantly better team with Mookie Betts, arguably the 2nd player in baseball, we totaly disagree.

And if the Dodgers didn't think they would be a much better team with this trade, they probably would not have negotiated it.

They knew a 2nd quality prospect was needed for them to do the deal, and it now appears up to them to provide that 2nd prospect.

And they may pass, but IMO it would be very short-sighted.

Again I'll ask you the question, that you did not answer, but rather posed about the LADS.

Why did a 103 win Yankee team add Cole?

You were already projected to be the best team in the AL?

I would suggest they wanted to add some margin and win a WS.

I suggest the LADs might answer in the same manner.
 

jon abbey

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Kyle Wright should at no point be considered part of a return that would make the Red Sox whole. Verdugo plus Wright would be an awful return. In 21 starts at AAA last year he was average. He has inconsistent command and often gets hit hard in between stellar starts in the minors. He's a 24 year old college prospect who was not stellar in college to the level where I would expect many pro scouts to project serious improvement at the upper levels. What do I know though? This would be very disappointing compared to what Graterol had the potential to be.
That was a fake tweet, ATL has nothing to do with this.
 

amfox1

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They’re going to be out of the free agent market for a few years anyway until they shed the Sale and Eovaldi deals even if they give away Betts and Price today. They’re going into remain a winning team while rebuilding the system mode.
That's simply not true. If Price and Betts are traded, the Red Sox will be at $140-145mm AAV going into the offseason (less if JDM opts out), before dealing with arb-eligible players. Ownership has been clear that resetting the luxury tax penalty would be key in, once again, going over the threshold.
 

RedOctober3829

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Kyle Wright should at no point be considered part of a return that would make the Red Sox whole. Verdugo plus Wright would be an awful return. In 21 starts at AAA last year he was average. He has inconsistent command and often gets hit hard in between stellar starts in the minors. He's a 24 year old college prospect who was not stellar in college to the level where I would expect many pro scouts to project serious improvement at the upper levels. What do I know though? This would be very disappointing compared to what Graterol had the potential to be.
Why bother commenting on this? It came from a fake Twitter account.
 
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