Betts/Price to LA for Verdugo/Jeter Downs/TBA

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OCD SS

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That's not reasonable if you're the Dodgers
Why not? It seems the deal hinges on Bloom looking to combine 2 lower their prospects from LA into a single, better player in Graterdol; that his medicals completely devalued him shouldn’t vhsnge that initial outline.

If its the Dodgers straight up the Sox already know the price and its not going to change. Alex Verdugo and they'll probably take more than half of Prices deal for Betts and Price. Friedman isn't adding a damn thing.
That would be a significant downgrade for the Sox. Removing Graterdol’s perceived value (pre-medicals) from the deal would probably just make it easier to deal with the Padres. I also doubt Bloom/ ownership want a straight salary dump in paying Price less, and they certainly don’t want it to look that way.
 

OCD SS

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Really, the biggest concern I have is that teams in the future wont deal with them if they back out, but that seems like an overstated concern to me.
This seems totally overblown. Teams will go after the talent they need first. Did the league stop dealing with the Padres when it got out that they were falsifying their medicals? Besides, if the only way teams want to deal with us is because they think the Sox will swallow poor trades, then there’s no point in dealing with those teams anyway.
 

BigJimEd

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If its the Dodgers straight up the Sox already know the price and its not going to change. Alex Verdugo and they'll probably take more than half of Prices deal for Betts and Price. Friedman isn't adding a damn thing.
It was Verdugo and Maeda from the Dodgers end.
 

amfox1

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As much as I get the logic of the Mookie trade,

- Giving away Price and subsidizing the contract is ugly; I don't like the guy but when your starters include two pitchers who were injured a lot last season, one who had an ERA in the 5s, and Mr. X, it's not as if Price is a luxury item;

- I hate that Verdugo seems like a piece of crap;

- Mookie is one of the best players in the game and is a joy to root for; and

- Given the crappy return, I'd rather roll with Mookie and take the risk that they can't sign him and get less when he leaves.

I understand that keeping him and Price risks a terrible tax situation and that this team is not likely a WS contender with them. But all things considered, I hope the Sox just back out of the deal.
David Price pitched 107.1 innings last year and 358 innings (119.1 avg) in the last three years. He's part of the problem, not the solution. If he's not traded this year, they are stuck with his last two years as he becomes a 10/5 guy at the end of the year. There's a significant risk Price gets hurt and he becomes untradeable before the deadline. The time to trade him is right now, even if they have to eat half his salary.

The team won't re-sign Mookie if they don't get under the luxury tax this year, which means they will get a 2021 comp pick after the 4th round draft (approx pick #130-140). If they don't get under the luxury tax, the overage is taxed at 50% and if the payroll remains where it is right now ($27mm over), the last $7mm is subject to an additional 12% surtax. That means that, if the payroll remains the same and Mookie isn't traded, the Red Sox pay $41.34mm for Betts ($27mm to him, $14.34mm to MLB as a penalty). Ironically, the best way to have Mookie for the long term is to trade him now, reset the luxury tax penalty and sign him next offseason.

You are correct, the team is in a terrible tax situation of their own making and, realistically, the team is not a 2020 World Series contender. As currently constituted, they are battling for a wild card spot, if the pitchers remain healthy. Even if they are better than expected, they will not have the payroll flexibility to add significant payroll at the trade deadline.

If there are other offers for Betts, I would pursue them ASAP. Trading Betts, especially if they can staple Price to the deal, is their best chance to fix this mess. I'm not as concerned about what we get back in the trade, although of course I'd like to get low-cost major-league or high-minors pieces. The farm system remains in the bottom third of the MLB and has very few potential stars coming in the next 1-2 years.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Why not? It seems the deal hinges on Bloom looking to combine 2 lower their prospects from LA into a single, better player in Graterdol; that his medicals completely devalued him shouldn’t vhsnge that initial outline.
Because Graterol isn't worth as much (even before the arm questions) as that deal implies. Downs by himself is at least as valuable as Graterol, probably more so. Gonsolin isn't coming as a throw-in.

One way to get more prospect value out of the deal would be to downgrade the major-league outfielder coming back, which would also dodge the Verdugo PR bullet. What about Chris Taylor? Yeah, he's basically Brock Holt Plus, but he's an above-average hitter (albeit just barely in 2019), a good baserunner, and a versatile defender who could probably cover Fenway's RF without trouble. And the fact that he's paid $6.7M/yr for the next two years is not a problem, because if the Sox are subsidizing Price on the originally announced scale, there's plenty of room to add that salary, and it will increase the prospect haul.

With Taylor instead of Verdugo in the deal, the Sox could add Ruiz or Downs plus one of Gray or Gonsolin, and maybe even a lottery ticket (or a slight reduction of the Price subsidy) to boot.
 
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amfox1

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New story by the same reporter who reported yesterday that the Twins were out and then had to backtrack.


According to two sources with knowledge of the talks, the Twins were very pessimistic Saturday about their end of a proposed three-way deal with the Red Sox and Dodgers, a deal in which the Twins were to receive righthander Kenta Maeda from Los Angeles while sending righthander Brusdar Graterol to Boston.

Depsite losing faith that a deal could be struck, the Twins on Saturday made one last attempt to satisfy the Red Sox by offering a second minor leaguer — one outside their top 10 prospects — in addition to Graterol. With spring training set to begin this week, the Twins pushed Saturday for a resolution to the five-day saga.

The Twins hoped to resolve the situation by Saturday night, but did not set a hard deadline.
 

JimD

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The team won't re-sign Mookie if they don't get under the luxury tax this year, which means they will get a 2021 comp pick after the 4th round draft (approx pick #130-140). If they don't get under the luxury tax, the overage is taxed at 50% and if the payroll remains where it is right now ($27mm over), the last $7mm is subject to an additional 12% surtax. That means that, if the payroll remains the same and Mookie isn't traded, the Red Sox pay $41.34mm for Betts ($27mm to him, $14.34mm to MLB as a penalty). Ironically, the best way to have Mookie for the long term is to trade him now, reset the luxury tax penalty and sign him next offseason.
This. As much as everyone points to the Sale and Eovaldi contracts as the reason we ended up here, keeping Betts long-term is also predicated on resetting the luxury tax ASAP. Even if they had managed to get Mookie to agree to an extension, they still would have been well over the cap, which then would have necessitated making other moves to drop below it like nontendering JBJ, shopping in the bargain bin to replace Eovaldi (may have worked, may not have) and letting Sale walk (which may have been the right move - time will tell - but it also would have left the team without a top-of-the-rotation ace, even if all they have is the hope of one now). What's the point of inking Mookie long-term and wasting one of his prime years? It's hard to picture an alternate scenario where they could have extended Mookie at the market rate while still maintaining realistic hopes of serious contention for a title.
 

amRadio

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If we're accepting a lesser prospect from the Twins in addition to the original package, that's awful. They shouldn't be taking Graterol if he's damaged. We're getting two medical cases and a lottery ticket for Mookie Betts. Talk about rental this, 400MM that but this shouldn't happen. There were paths we could have taken this offseason to avoid this mess.
 

JimD

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'Non-Boston docs'. The one who seems to be burning bridges in this saga is Heyman with the Boston front office.
 

RedOctober3829

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If we're accepting a lesser prospect from the Twins in addition to the original package, that's awful. They shouldn't be taking Graterol if he's damaged. We're getting two medical cases and a lottery ticket for Mookie Betts. Talk about rental this, 400MM that but this shouldn't happen. There were paths we could have taken this offseason to avoid this mess.
That's not what the rumors are at all. If Graterol is staying with LA, that means that the Dodgers would be sending of their prospects to Boston.
 

Mystic Merlin

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'Non-Boston docs'. The one who seems to be burning bridges in this saga is Heyman with the Boston front office.
Non-Boston docs would be....Dodgers docs and maybe (?) the Twins docs, who are employed by the team that has an interest in boosting Graterol’s value.

Heyman is on a pretty naked anti-Red Sox hit parade.
 

amRadio

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That's not what the rumors are at all. If Graterol is staying with LA, that means that the Dodgers would be sending of their prospects to Boston.
From the Star Tribune:

Depsite losing faith that a deal could be struck, the Twins on Saturday made one last attempt to satisfy the Red Sox by offering a second minor leaguer — one outside their top 10 prospects — in addition to Graterol. With spring training set to begin this week, the Twins pushed Saturday for a resolution to the five-day saga.

The Twins hoped to resolve the situation by Saturday night, but did not set a hard deadline.
That's up thread a little. Hard to know what rumors are true. Graterol was part of no rumors I saw until he was in the original package.
 

RedOctober3829

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From the Star Tribune:



That's up thread a little. Hard to know what rumors are true. Graterol was part of no rumors I saw until he was in the original package.
And that attempt fell to the wayside or it would have gotten done yesterday. It's going to be 2 separate deals because it's apparent that Boston isn't comfortable enough with Graterol's scans to accept him as the top prospect in this deal.
 

Steve Dillard

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Non-Boston docs would be....Dodgers docs and maybe (?) the Twins docs, who are employed by the team that has an interest in boosting Graterol’s value.

Heyman is on a pretty naked anti-Red Sox hit parade.
Heyman is, as allways, on a pretty naked pro-Boras client parade. Boras is selling that Grateral is not injured, ergo, Heyman is selling that Grateral is not injured (except for bogus Sox view).
 

SouthernBoSox

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If this trade happens and Graterol isn’t in Boston I think it really gives some validity the concerns with his medicals are very real on Boston’s side.
 

amfox1

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Non-Boston docs would be....Dodgers docs and maybe (?) the Twins docs, who are employed by the team that has an interest in boosting Graterol’s value.

Heyman is on a pretty naked anti-Red Sox hit parade.
Heyman is a shill for Boras. This is clearly Boras trying to hit back at the Red Sox for besmirching his client.

Edit: What Steve Dillard said.
 

The Gray Eagle

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David Price pitched 107.1 innings last year and 358 innings (119.1 avg) in the last three years. He's part of the problem, not the solution. If he's not traded this year, they are stuck with his last two years as he becomes a 10/5 guy at the end of the year. There's a significant risk Price gets hurt and he becomes untradeable before the deadline. The time to trade him is right now, even if they have to eat half his salary.
If you include the postseason, the most taxing innings he pitched, he's thrown 390 innings over the past 3 seasons. He was shut down early last year, but Cora said at the time that part of the reason he was shut down was that the team was out of the playoff race:


“We’re going to shut him down. We’re going to take care to see what’s going on with the cyst and actually check his wrist. If there’s something else we’ll take care of that if there’s something going on,” said manager Alex Cora. “I think it’s a head start to next year. It’s the smart thing to do. . . . If we were one game up or in the hunt he’d probably be pitching out of the bullpen like in ’17. But where we’re at and obviously how important he is it’s better off moving forward and getting right.”
Cora noted that Price’s typical pinpoint command of his two-seamer has been affected by his wrist issues, and in recent bullpen outings he had been unable to throw his cutter or changeup without discomfort. Given those limitations and where the Sox are in the standings, the decision to end the 34-year-old’s season became straightforward.

“When you can’t perform the way you want to it’s obviously frustrating,” said Cora. “If it’s up to him he’ll be throwing fastballs out there and trying to compete. But we took it away because we feel that it’s not conducive to something positive to the player. But he’s all in. He knows this is the best way to start off the offseason and get him ready and he’ll be ready.”
The Dodgers presumably looked at Price's medical reports and were willing to take him in the trade, so I don't get the fear of him being unlikely to pitch a lot this year.

His whole career, he's had 2 seasons that were greatly limited by injury: 2017, when he only threw 74 innings, came after he threw a ridiculous 230 innings in the regular season as Farrell drove him like a rented mule.

And last year, when he only threw 107 (but could have thrown more if needed) came after a season where he threw 201 innings (including 25 in the postseason).

Even with his age and previous injuries, the projections systems shown on Fangraphs project him to throw 148, 164 or 164 innings this coming season.

Price has never had a season with an ERA+ under 108 since his rookie year in 2009 (98).
Again, the Dodgers just got a look at his medical records and are still trying to go ahead with this deal.
 

bankshot1

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If the Sox accept Graterol + another less desirable Twins prospect, they will look disingenuous on their claims about Grat's medical data and future value. If he's damaged good another Twins prospect outside their top-10 doesn't make him healthier or the trade yield much better. They can't take him as the 2nd piece behind Verdugo.

It seems its going to have to be the LADs that improve the Sox yield by kicking in another real prospect..
 

amfox1

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If you include the postseason, the most taxing innings he pitched, he's thrown 390 innings over the past 3 seasons. He was shut down early last year, but Cora said at the time that part of the reason he was shut down was that the team was out of the playoff race:


The Dodgers presumably looked at Price's medical reports and were willing to take him in the trade, so I don't get the fear of him being unlikely to pitch a lot this year.

His whole career, he's had 2 seasons that were greatly limited by injury: 2017, when he only threw 74 innings, came after he threw a ridiculous 230 innings in the regular season as Farrell drove him like a rented mule.

And last year, when he only threw 107 (but could have thrown more if needed) came after a season where he threw 201 innings (including 25 in the postseason).

Even with his age and previous injuries, the projections systems shown on Fangraphs project him to throw 148, 164 or 164 innings this coming season.

Price has never had a season with an ERA+ under 108 since his rookie year in 2009 (98).
Again, the Dodgers just got a look at his medical records and are still trying to go ahead with this deal.
There are two differences between LA and BOS with respect to Price.

1. LA is taking Price at 50% of his salary, hence less risk.
2. If BOS doesn't trade Price by the trade deadline, they cannot trade him without his consent. LA doesn't have the same issue because he will never be a 10/5 guy with LA.
 

Green Monster

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Boston has some of the Best Doctors in the World! Eighteen years ago, my wife had a serious illness. Local doctors gave her 8-months to live. We went to Boston. She is still alive today and doing great! .......I am more than fine with Boston Doctors!!
 

SoxFanInPdx

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Boston has some of the Best Doctors in the World! Eighteen years ago, my wife had a serious illness. Local doctors gave her 8-months to live. We went to Boston. She is still alive today and doing great! .......I am more than fine with Boston Doctors!!
This a movie quote or metaphor that I'm not getting?
 

amfox1

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Just curious what these are? I know I'm the thread idiot but I can't find what else they could have done
Don't want to speak for the OP, but non-tendering JBJ and trading a subsidized Price for a C+ prospect would have gone a long way toward fixing the immediate payroll problem and would have helped the team's bargaining position in trading Betts.
 

Jimbodandy

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If the Sox accept Graterol + another less desirable Twins prospect, they will look disingenuous on their claims about Grat's medical data and future value. If he's damaged good another Twins prospect outside their top-10 doesn't make him healthier or the trade yield much better. They can't take him as the 2nd piece behind Verdugo.

It seems its going to have to be the LADs that improve the Sox yield by kicking in another real prospect..
I'm not predicting what happens with Graterol, but what you're saying simply doesn't follow.

The reports are that the medicals convinced the Sox that he has no future AS A STARTER, not that he has no future. A hypothetical where something gets added to Graterol to close the deal only would reinforce that position, were it to happen.
 

SoxFanInPdx

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Don't want to speak for the OP, but non-tendering JBJ and trading a subsidized Price for a C+ prospect would have gone a long way toward fixing the immediate payroll problem.
Exactly. This was avoidable, but the FO stood by and let it happen. Flat out negligence! And because of it we have to staple Price with the best player we've developed not named Teddy Ballgame and Yaz for a shitty return.

The blow back in Fenway and NESN viewership is going to be huge. I then fear they'll panic and bid against themselves and sign some overrated player that'll be a bust and we'll be right back in this scenario.

Speaking of busts, can't wait to see Verdugo be out in 2-3 years time.
 
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DisgruntledSoxFan77

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Don't want to speak for the OP, but non-tendering JBJ and trading a subsidized Price for a C+ prospect would have gone a long way toward fixing the immediate payroll problem and would have helped the team's bargaining position in trading Betts.
But if reports are to be believed Bloom has been trying to trade subsidized Price all offseason and hasn't had any luck. I agree non-tendering Bradley should have been done and I'm still stunned he's still here
 

joe dokes

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Don't want to speak for the OP, but non-tendering JBJ and trading a subsidized Price for a C+ prospect would have gone a long way toward fixing the immediate payroll problem and would have helped the team's bargaining position in trading Betts.
But then they are down Betts, Price AND JBJ.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
But if reports are to be believed Bloom has been trying to trade subsidized Price all offseason and hasn't had any luck. I agree non-tendering Bradley should have been done and I'm still stunned he's still here
The fact that he's still here strongly suggests that the Sox had reached the conclusion -- presumably after considerable testing of the waters -- that it would not be possible to trade Price without stapling him to Betts. They didn't want to have to replace two-thirds of their outfield in one winter while trying to get under the limit.
 

SoxFanForsyth

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I’m not sure why Graterol was ever going to the Red Sox in the first place. And frankly, why the Twins were part of this deal in the first place. The Dodgers need a strong back end guy in their bullpen and that’s precisely what Graterol projects to be. Sox were going to get Graterol (#53 overall prospect), so just sub Gonsolin (unranked) and Jeter Downs (future 2B) to go with Verdugo and call it good.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Would be hysterical if the return to Boston almost mirrored what Gammons wrote last week.
 

nvalvo

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I’m not sure why Graterol was ever going to the Red Sox in the first place. And frankly, why the Twins were part of this deal in the first place. The Dodgers need a strong back end guy in their bullpen and that’s precisely what Graterol projects to be. Sox were going to get Graterol (#53 overall prospect), so just sub Gonsolin (unranked) and Jeter Downs (future 2B) to go with Verdugo and call it good.
Because Boston understandably wanted upside in a deal sending out an MVP candidate. If Graterol was fully healthy, he had a relief ace floor and a 1/2 starter ceiling.

Gonsolin doesn't have that kind of upside; but then again, neither does Graterol (if the Boston medical people are to be believed).

edit: Downs does have real upside! But Verdugo and Downs and Gonsolin might be more than LA wants to spend.
 

Plympton91

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But if reports are to be believed Bloom has been trying to trade subsidized Price all offseason and hasn't had any luck. I agree non-tendering Bradley should have been done and I'm still stunned he's still here
Part of the reason Bloom is having so much trouble getting value in trades is the the ownership decided to publicly announce their desire to get under the $208 threshold. That was a critical error in judgement by Kennedy on the radio, that Henry subsequently tried to walk back but has been unsuccessful. Now that Bloom has accepted two question marks for Betts and kicked in half Price’s salary their pants are around their ankles going forward regardless of what they say.

Furthermore, if they’re trading Betts and Price, they’re more likely than not going to finish 4th in the Division and about 10th in the AL. Once Betts and Price are gone, every other player who has less than 3 years of control should also be traded. Pay their entire salaries in deals and get the best prospects you can for Barnes, Workman, Bradley, Vazquez, Perez, Moreland. Any of those players at the major league minimum would have significant excess value. If you are very unlikely to be a wild card then your goal should be to finish last. There is no reason at all to finish 6th.

Finally, I’m still calling BS on this suddenly accepted number of $20+ million for 40 man and benefits. Even if the extra 40 man spots get $200,000 on average, which means all 14 players spend 1/3 of the year in the majors, mathematically impossible, that’s just $3 million. If all players get $40,000 a year gold plated family health and life insurance policies, even the minor leaguers, that’s just $1.6 million. I found a Forbes article that says pension contributions are about $7 million per team. Those total about $12 million. So what else is there to get to $22-24 million?
 

SouthernBoSox

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I’m not sure why Graterol was ever going to the Red Sox in the first place. And frankly, why the Twins were part of this deal in the first place. The Dodgers need a strong back end guy in their bullpen and that’s precisely what Graterol projects to be. Sox were going to get Graterol (#53 overall prospect), so just sub Gonsolin (unranked) and Jeter Downs (future 2B) to go with Verdugo and call it good.
Downs has always been the most natural fit in this trade given the make up of the Dodgers and Red Sox major league roster and minor league systems.
 

bankshot1

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I'm not predicting what happens with Graterol, but what you're saying simply doesn't follow.

The reports are that the medicals convinced the Sox that he has no future AS A STARTER, not that he has no future. A hypothetical where something gets added to Graterol to close the deal only would reinforce that position, were it to happen.
It follows perfectly.

Graterol was viewed by the Sox as a potential #3 starter pre-trade med-swaps. After the meds review he was now seen as a sore-armed reliever. His value was severely diminished. Adding a low Twins prospect (outside their top-10) will not make Graterol any healthier or really help the Sox.

And I agree accepting additional compensation (from LAD or the Twins) to make the Sox feel they received adequate trade value is probably required. However adding a low Twins prospect to a diminished in value Graterol in this trade does not make sense to me. This is unlikley to happen but Graterol as a 3rd piece (Verdugu, PTBNL, Grat) given his medical records, lower perceived value, and the Sox stance, would be rational.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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NO....personal experience. Not trying to sidetrack the thread, just throw my support to the Boston doctors after Heyman's underhanded dig.
Glad to hear this worked out for you, but why do all those athletes, even from Boston, go to Alabama to see Dr. James Andrews? Having a mass of great doctors is a great reason to live in Boston, but if Graterol can’t be fixed then the best Boston doctors won’t be able to fix him.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Glad to hear this worked out for you, but why do all those athletes, even from Boston, go to Alabama to see Dr. James Andrews? Having a mass of great doctors is a great reason to live in Boston, but if Graterol can’t be fixed then the best Boston doctors won’t be able to fix him.
I mean consider the source too. Heyman lives in a dog house in the back of Scott Boras' mansion.
 

Rich Garces Belly

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Don't want to speak for the OP, but non-tendering JBJ and trading a subsidized Price for a C+ prospect would have gone a long way toward fixing the immediate payroll problem and would have helped the team's bargaining position in trading Betts.
Not to hijack the thread but I still do not understand why JBJ wasn’t non-tendered.
 

Jimbodandy

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It follows perfectly.

Graterol was viewed by the Sox as a potential #3 starter pre-trade med-swaps. After the meds review he was now seen as a sore-armed reliever. His value was severely diminished. Adding a low Twins prospect (outside their top-10) will not make Graterol any healthier or really help the Sox.

And I agree accepting additional compensation (from LAD or the Twins) to make the Sox feel they received adequate trade value is probably required. However adding a low Twins prospect to a diminished in value Graterol in this trade does not make sense to me. This is unlikley to happen but Graterol as a 3rd piece (Verdugu, PTBNL, Grat) given his medical records, lower perceived value, and the Sox stance, would be rational.
I agree with most of what you wrote here, but you're still conflating health and profile. Yes, they're related. But the Sox reported projection of Graterol as "definitely not a starter" doesn't mean that they aren't projecting him as a future major leaguer with value. It just doesn't.
 

E5 Yaz

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Not to hijack the thread but I still do not understand why JBJ wasn’t non-tendered.
It could be that they knew they were going to trade Mookie and a year of JBJ, even at that price, gives them a little more stability in the outfield
 

nattysez

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I'm curious who is leaking like a sieve on this deal. At this point the Dodgers want to get this done so they can make all their ancillary moves, so they seem like the likeliest candidate.
 
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