Beyond 2016 - future needs

grimshaw

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Looking at the current roster and looking at next year, there aren't a whole lot of spots to fill, and ditto for 2018, with Chris Young the only free agent that year.

Catching had been a question mark as early as a month ago - until Sandy Leon.
DH - is one spot
Bullpen help is a definite other with Koji, Tazawa and Ziegler hitting free agency and no guarantee Smith is an effective contributor for 2017.

There is still a dearth of upper level minor league pitching in the system, so solidifying that area is a need, even if it's moving 40 man guys for prospects.

Below is a list of 2017 free agents. Obvious positions are set, but figured having the (near) complete list couldn't harm anything. It's a thin class to be sure, so they picked a great time to have up and coming cheap stars. Cots has $148,671,000 listed as 2017 commitments. Any other areas of concern? Me, I'm all in on Jansen and would like Romo as Ziegler's substitute. I would punt DH and go with cheap platoons.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016-17-mlb-free-agents.html

[List linked rather than inlined, for readability and to ensure that people see the latest list of players--Sumner]
 
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AB in DC

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Thanks for the list. I think the big question is what to do with the money freed up by Papi's retirement. They could make a big splash with someone like Encarnacion, pick up a bunch of mid-level players, or lock up some of the team's youngsters on a long-term contract.

I lean toward the latter, but there's something to be said for a Go-For-It-Now approach to 2017-2019 while all the young talent is still inexpensive.
 

OptimusPapi

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Not a lot of money is coming off the books after 2017. Due to arb/extensions the payroll is going to increase. I am wondering if it makes sense to sign a reliever or two and sit this off season out. That way there is money in the bank for either Harvey or Fernandez.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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... I think the big question is what to do with the money freed up by Papi's retirement....
It's not just Papi's $16M. Also Clay's $12.5-13M (depending on if they buy out the option or trade him rather than keep him), Koji's $9M, Taz's $3.375M, plus the salary of the FA rentals brought in this year (Hill, Ziegler).

Some of that will be offset by Arb raises for a handful of guys, including first-year arb guys X, JBJ, and Brockstar. Maybe they deal away some arb guys (Kelly?) or cut them (Abad?). But they could keep payroll flat and still have over $30M to play with - enough for a big bat, or for big extensions and a couple of expensive bullpen FAs.
 

bradmahn

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I wouldn't mind re-signing Ziegler. He's a good weapon to have in the late innings when you've got a man on first and can back up Kimbrel in the 9th. At his age, I doubt the commitment will be long or large.

If they don't go with an Encarnacion-type, how does Brandon Moss sound as a DH primarily and a backup 1B/LF and left hander off the bench?
 

Rasputin

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I'd rather lock up the kids than bring in anyone big. We need some bullpen free agents/trades but I don't think the lineup and rotation need more than tweaking and/or depth.
 

grimshaw

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Just realized that COTS was updated in April, so it's not quite accurate. Pomeranz, Abad, Hill, and a few other minor pieces are missing, and Layne, Light and Edwin Escobar are gone.
 

johnnywayback

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One big question will be whether they think Moncada is likely to be the everyday 3B, at least by mid-season. If so, they could move Shaw to 1B and Hanley to DH. Or they could trade Shaw for a reliever and sign Encarnacion to DH and leave Hanley at 1B.

But what if Shaw and some combination of Swihart, Devers, Chavis, etc. could bring back a real upgrade at 1B? Maybe the Diamondbacks go into rebuilding mode and start shopping Goldschmidt, or maybe the Royals decide they aren't going to be able to re-sign Hosmer after the season, or maybe the Reds finally give up the ghost and trade Joey Votto. Any of those guys would fill a gap in the development timeline between emerging superstars like Betts and Bogaerts and slightly-past-their-prime veterans like Ramirez and even (ducking) Pedroia.

Seems worth considering, anyway. Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, and Wright are all going to be here at least until the mega-FA offseason of 2018 -- I don't think it makes sense to spend whatever excess prospect capital we may have on another starter.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Locking up Xander for 5+ years has to be the first priority. That would buy out 2+ years of free agency, and would probably cost a ton with Boras factored in, but the team's got nothing in the pipeline at SS.

Then you try to get a reasonable 5-year deal done with JBJ. If he doesn't bite on a mid-money deal, you move on and let him go year-to-year with arbitration raises. If he prefers to hit free agency before his age-31 season, and no guarantees, so be it.

That takes care of both Boras guys, after which the Sox need to make the big decision...what to do with Mookie. I personally think the Sox should wait until after 2018 and then put on a full-court press to extend him under the new realities of the next CBA on a good fair-money deal and keeps him in Boston for a long time.
 

O Captain! My Captain!

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One big question will be whether they think Moncada is likely to be the everyday 3B, at least by mid-season. If so, they could move Shaw to 1B and Hanley to DH. Or they could trade Shaw for a reliever and sign Encarnacion to DH and leave Hanley at 1B.

But what if Shaw and some combination of Swihart, Devers, Chavis, etc. could bring back a real upgrade at 1B? Maybe the Diamondbacks go into rebuilding mode and start shopping Goldschmidt, or maybe the Royals decide they aren't going to be able to re-sign Hosmer after the season, or maybe the Reds finally give up the ghost and trade Joey Votto. Any of those guys would fill a gap in the development timeline between emerging superstars like Betts and Bogaerts and slightly-past-their-prime veterans like Ramirez and even (ducking) Pedroia.
Goldschmidt is a monster hitter with an extremely team-friendly contract, and would probably require the whole prospect truck. Votto is also a monster hitter with an enormous contract who the Reds might be more amenable to moving, but I'm not sure how much you really want to trade for the right to pay him 25 million a year into his 40s. Hosmer ranges from a good player (~3 WAR) to a below average regular (1ish WAR) depending on how his BABIP runs and how the metrics like his first base defense, and he's getting to the age where he really doesn't have a ton more upside. Not sure there's a real reason to trade much of any prospect for him, when he's only a marginal upgrade from Hanley at first.
 

DanoooME

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The problem with the potential FA bullpen options is they are going to get expensive, especially at the top of the market. I would guess Jansen's agent (and Chapman's for that matter) is going to be shooting for better than Robertson or Kimbrel money and it's extremely likely he's going for biggest closer total money ever (over the 4 years, $50M Paps got years ago). I could see Ziegler getting Miller money in this market ($9M per year for 2 or 3 years). After that, what does that leave? Melancon will likely get $10M per year and the Sox have already been there, done that. Romo is going to want a raise from $7.5M. Casilla, this will be his first shot at a big deal, so he's probably not taking less than 3 years, $30M. So that leaves what's left of Tazawa's arm, Wade Davis' arm (if he even hits FA - if he doesn't need surgery, the Royals are probably picking up the option), and a metric fuckton of the kinds of retreads that haven't really worked out for the Sox.

I can't see the Sox spending big money in this area given the fact that they already have a closer that's being paid big closer money. And Kimbrel likely isn't moving out of the closer role without kicking and screaming, so that really eliminates the top of the market. I see them not necessarily bottom feeding, but looking for bargains, particularly early in the free agency period, and hoping to get some steals before the market really heats up. I'd throw some smaller deals at guys like Neftali Feliz, Daniel Hudson and Travis Wood that are a little younger and have some upside and hope they bite.
 

grimshaw

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Goldschmidt is a monster hitter with an extremely team-friendly contract, and would probably require the whole prospect truck. Votto is also a monster hitter with an enormous contract who the Reds might be more amenable to moving, but I'm not sure how much you really want to trade for the right to pay him 25 million a year into his 40s. Hosmer ranges from a good player (~3 WAR) to a below average regular (1ish WAR) depending on how his BABIP runs and how the metrics like his first base defense, and he's getting to the age where he really doesn't have a ton more upside. Not sure there's a real reason to trade much of any prospect for him, when he's only a marginal upgrade from Hanley at first.
Agree about Goldschmidt. It would take a fortune but I'm guessing management is all gone after this season, so you never know. Though the Sox farm system is no longer top 5, so other teams could probably trump any offer for the best player on the market.

Votto, on the other hand, I would take on, because that window is wide open.

25 mill seems like a lot, but that's a 3WAR player in this market before factoring inflation in 5+ years from now. It wouldn't end well, but he is a DH in waiting anyhow.

Can you imagine adding a guy with the 14th best .obp in history to this lineup? He is 21 points higher than the next highest active hitter.

Pedey
Votto
Betts
JBJ
Bogaerts
Moncada/Shaw
Ramirez
Leon/Swihart
Nintendo/Young
 

FanSinceBoggs

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2017 starting staff:
Price
Wright
Pomeranz
Porcello
Rodriguez
(with Johnson and Owens in AAA)

2017 bullpen:
Kimbrell
Barnes
Ross
Abad
Kelly (will have one option remaining)
Hembree (will be out of options)
OTHER: C.Smith, B.Workman

Goodbye: Tazawa, Uehara, Buchholz

It would make sense to add one quality (and proven) relief pitcher. They aren't going to pick up Buchholz's 13.5 million option, the guy is pretty much useless (Negative WAR, according to Fangraphs). The idea of trading T.Shaw for a relief pitcher is interesting. The Red Sox could play Sandoval at 3b, backed up by Moncada in the minor leagues. You give Sandoval around 200 at bats to prove he should start at 3b. If he sucks you promote Moncada at the end of May. Hanley at DH. That would create an opening at 1b, assuming the Red Sox trade Shaw for a relief pitcher. They could also play Hanley at 1b and look to free agency for a DH. But I'm not giving up my first round draft pick for a DH, and I would prefer using Hanley at DH since the guy gets hurt walking to the bathroom at night. Votto is interesting, but I would want the Reds to kick in some money.
 
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nothumb

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One big question will be whether they think Moncada is likely to be the everyday 3B, at least by mid-season. If so, they could move Shaw to 1B and Hanley to DH. Or they could trade Shaw for a reliever and sign Encarnacion to DH and leave Hanley at 1B.

But what if Shaw and some combination of Swihart, Devers, Chavis, etc. could bring back a real upgrade at 1B? Maybe the Diamondbacks go into rebuilding mode and start shopping Goldschmidt, or maybe the Royals decide they aren't going to be able to re-sign Hosmer after the season, or maybe the Reds finally give up the ghost and trade Joey Votto. Any of those guys would fill a gap in the development timeline between emerging superstars like Betts and Bogaerts and slightly-past-their-prime veterans like Ramirez and even (ducking) Pedroia.

Seems worth considering, anyway. Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, and Wright are all going to be here at least until the mega-FA offseason of 2018 -- I don't think it makes sense to spend whatever excess prospect capital we may have on another starter.
If Moncada is ready and you add a guy like Moss (basically replace Hill and Marrero with those two), you have great platoon options around the corners and at DH, but not a lot of MI depth. It would also hinge a lot on whether Moncada and 10D could produce enough vs LHP to push Young to DH and sit Shaw. Would be interesting to see if they would consider doing that with Holt as a supersub.

I feel like the FO perspective is going to lean more towards elite middle of the order hitting rather than maximizing platoon advantages and positional flexibility, and that we probably add a big bat to replace Papi on the premise that in crunch time you'd rather have a quarter than two dimes and a nickel.
 

johnnywayback

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If Moncada is ready and you add a guy like Moss (basically replace Hill and Marrero with those two), you have great platoon options around the corners and at DH, but not a lot of MI depth. It would also hinge a lot on whether Moncada and 10D could produce enough vs LHP to push Young to DH and sit Shaw. Would be interesting to see if they would consider doing that with Holt as a supersub.

I feel like the FO perspective is going to lean more towards elite middle of the order hitting rather than maximizing platoon advantages and positional flexibility, and that we probably add a big bat to replace Papi on the premise that in crunch time you'd rather have a quarter than two dimes and a nickel.
You know who would be a pretty good hedge there, is Martin Prado. Could be a platoon player or even a starter at 3B or LF, can play 2B in a pinch...basically, Brock Holt but right-handed and, you know, better.
 

Plympton91

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Needs for 2017:

Bullpen,
Bullpen,
Left-handed power
Bullpen

Replacing Shaw with Votto is intriguing, but I'm not sure it is enough of an upgrade to go from $550k to $150 million over 6 years to age 40.

They've got so much offensive depth and starting pitching depth with Johnson and Owens, I think they could basically just get two relief aces and stop there.
 

Rasputin

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It's not just Papi's $16M. Also Clay's $12.5-13M (depending on if they buy out the option or trade him rather than keep him), Koji's $9M, Taz's $3.375M, plus the salary of the FA rentals brought in this year (Hill, Ziegler).
I wouldn't be so quick to assume Clay isn't coming back.

As things are now, the Sox have Price, Wright, Porcello, Pomeranz, and Rodriguez for the rotation with Elias, Johnson, and Owens for AAA depth. I suspect the Sox aren't thrilled with just those guys as depth options. The best one, right now, feels like the guy who spent much of the year not pitching.

Point being, the $13M for Buchholz is way too much for a reliever, but it's relative chump change for a starter and it's entirely possible that they bring him back as a potential starter. Considering that the option decision has to be made early in the season and that the amount of money involved is relatively trivial, it might be worth it to lock Clay up before chasing all the other options.
 

grimshaw

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Please cite your sources, and when it's a large list like this just provide a link--the originals are often updated intermittently (e.g. Coco Crisp is missing from your list, despite the fact that he's looking increasingly likely not to vest his option).

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016-17-mlb-free-agents.html
My bad - that was the source. I took out quite a few of them who were going to retire or were extremely unlikely to return to Boston..
 

YTF

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Needs for 2017:

Bullpen,
Bullpen,
Left-handed power
Bullpen

Replacing Shaw with Votto is intriguing, but I'm not sure it is enough of an upgrade to go from $550k to $150 million over 6 years to age 40.

They've got so much offensive depth and starting pitching depth with Johnson and Owens, I think they could basically just get two relief aces and stop there.
This is pretty much where I'm at. The major concern is the bullpen. If Leon finishes the season at a steady pace I say let him be the lead guy going into ST and see which of Swihart/Vasquez develops into the second catcher. Most of the position players seem set unless Hanley becomes your DH. Perhaps a Lefty 3B to fill Plympton's request and then rotate Hanley and the new lefty with Shaw between1st, 3rd and DH. Without Ortiz the DH slot can also be used to give guys a break in season while not taking their bats out of the lineup.
 

moondog80

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With all of the contracts on the books and hopefully the extensions of the young guys to come, I'd be very surprised if they invested long term in a hitter on the wrong side of the age curve like Encarnacion/Bautista/Votto. I Give Ortiz' spot in the lineup to Moncada and use his (and Shaw's) flexibility to do things like DH Pedroia a couple of times a month.
 

AB in DC

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This is pretty much where I'm at. The major concern is the bullpen. If Leon finishes the season at a steady pace I say let him be the lead guy going into ST and see which of Swihart/Vasquez develops into the second catcher. Most of the position players seem set unless Hanley becomes your DH. Perhaps a Lefty 3B to fill Plympton's request and then rotate Hanley and the new lefty with Shaw between1st, 3rd and DH. Without Ortiz the DH slot can also be used to give guys a break in season while not taking their bats out of the lineup.
I think you have to assume Sandoval plays the "lefty 3B" role in this scenario, with Sandoval/Shaw/Hanley covering 3B/1B/DH in some order. Then hope Moncada will be ready to come up mid-season to replace whoever is producing the least.
 

E5 Yaz

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Catching had been a question mark as early as a month ago - until Sandy Leon.
As much as we'd all love this to be true ... I'd suggest catcher is a question mark until it's proven that the Season of Sandy isn't just a one-year wonder
 

gammoseditor

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As much as we'd all love this to be true ... I'd suggest catcher is a question mark until it's proven that the Season of Sandy isn't just a one-year wonder
Sandy and Vazquez are out of options so if you bring someone in you have to move one of them. It may be a question mark but I doubt they bring in anyone except AAA depth.
 

nothumb

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I think you have to assume Sandoval plays the "lefty 3B" role in this scenario, with Sandoval/Shaw/Hanley covering 3B/1B/DH in some order. Then hope Moncada will be ready to come up mid-season to replace whoever is producing the least.
I don't think this is good enough. Not only are you basically replacing Ortiz with Pablo, by not having a RHH option for 3b you also lose the chance to sit Shaw against tough lefties, unless Panda magically regains the ability to hit them. You can sit one of Shaw or Panda and let Young DH, but only if 10D is showing he can play everyday.

Ideally in a perfect world you add a LH DH/1B type who can mash and a RHB who can play 3b. Moncada may be one or both of those, and so, in a pipe dream, might Panda I suppose, but I don't think you can fully count on either.

Unfortunately I suspect Panda will at least get a crack at it.
 

InsideTheParker

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Bullpen help is a definite other with Koji, Tazawa and Ziegler hitting free agency and no guarantee Smith is an effective contributor for 2017.
I would hope that from here on out, DDski doesn't ignore factors like an unconventional delivery like Smith's. The Mariners have been quoted as expecting an injury, which is why they were willing to let him go.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Unfortunately I suspect Panda will at least get a crack at it.
If they're not going to give Panda some run to start the year - even in a platoon - they might as well release him. The only way you're going to get anything at all for him is by giving him a chance to establish some value. And then who knows, maybe he returns to being the guy he used to be and the Sox have a nice problem on their hands.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I would hope that from here on out, DDski doesn't ignore factors like an unconventional delivery like Smith's. The Mariners have been quoted as expecting an injury, which is why they were willing to let him go.
There's plenty of unconventional deliveries that don't lead to arm injuries. And plenty of conventional ones that do. There's no way to predict it. Mark Prior is the perfect example of this. Human arms aren't meant to throw a baseball. I'd prefer DD acquires the best players he can at the best price he can. Injury risk is real for everyone.

I don't know what quotes you're talking about, but could you link to one? Was it explicit that their concern was over his delivery or was it ambiguous and they could have been worried because of his medicals they were privy to?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I would hope that from here on out, DDski doesn't ignore factors like an unconventional delivery like Smith's. The Mariners have been quoted as expecting an injury, which is why they were willing to let him go.
Wasn't their concern about injury more related to his struggles last September? Turns out they were probably right, but I don't see how the unconventional delivery is any more of an indicator than his results. Guys with supposedly perfect mechanics have encountered arm trouble too. Mark Prior was proclaimed as a prototype for perfect mechanics...look where that got him.
 

InsideTheParker

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There's plenty of unconventional deliveries that don't lead to arm injuries. And plenty of conventional ones that do. There's no way to predict it. Mark Prior is the perfect example of this. Human arms aren't meant to throw a baseball. I'd prefer DD acquires the best players he can at the best price he can. Injury risk is real for everyone.

I don't know what quotes you're talking about, but could you link to one? Was it explicit that their concern was over his delivery or was it ambiguous and they could have been worried because of his medicals they were privy to?
Top story in Google search:
While Dombrowski indicated the Red Sox had no medical concerns when Smith was acquired from the Mariners, they appeared to have ignored the red flags about his unusual delivery. Mariners’ officials warned in off-the-record comments after the deal was made, that in their opinion Smith had a good chance of suffering an elbow injury because of his unorthodox delivery. Their concerns were like clockwork. In March, Smith complained of forearm tightness, which is often the forerunner of Tommy John surgery. Sure enough, that’s what happened. Smith had a torn ulnar collateral ligament and will be out 9-12 months. “I think when we look at his delivery we say it’s an unusual delivery, it’s probably more apt to have injury,” Dombrowski said Tuesday. “He pitched a lot of games last year, we had medical information, we thought he’d be fine.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/05/24/red-sox-brass-guessed-wrong-carson-smith/ANVJDarEUeZuSzwbd1vHCK/story.html
 

JohntheBaptist

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Well those "concerns" were why you were able to get him for Wade Miley. It was a calculated risk, but Smith has years of control which means the value of the trade was not solely for 2016.
 

InsideTheParker

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As much as we'd all love this to be true ... I'd suggest catcher is a question mark until it's proven that the Season of Sandy isn't just a one-year wonder
I was looking at Cot's and it appears that Sandy isn't signed beyond this season. They won't find out if he's a one-year wonder until they sign him for next year. Isn't it possible there will be competition for his services, or is there something I don't understand about his status---i.e., that the Sox have first dibs.
 

plucy

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a rock and a hard place
If they're not going to give Panda some run to start the year - even in a platoon - they might as well release him. The only way you're going to get anything at all for him is by giving him a chance to establish some value. And then who knows, maybe he returns to being the guy he used to be and the Sox have a nice problem on their hands.
Sandoval is a career 128 wRC+ as a LHH. Even in the horrific 15 season he put up a 99 from the left side. Unless he has lost his baseball abilities or has refused to improve his conditioning, he should be able to put up a115-120 as a LHH at age 30.
OTOH I am concerned about Hanley's decline. Big platoon split this year (87 vs RH, 184 vs. LH) as well as an increase in swinging strikes, especially o-zone. It may be wise to start treating him like Chris Young, and keep him on the bench against hard throwing RHP.
There are corner replacements in the system in Moncada, Shaw and Travis, but two are unproven and will need to adjust while Shaw is adequate but prone to long droughts.
So the answer to the DH-corner alignments may not be known until mid 2017 if the internal route is taken.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I was looking at Cot's and it appears that Sandy isn't signed beyond this season. They won't find out if he's a one-year wonder until they sign him for next year. Isn't it possible there will be competition for his services, or is there something I don't understand about his status---i.e., that the Sox have first dibs.
He's a pre-arbitration guy. They have control of his rights through 2019.
 

nothumb

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Well those "concerns" were why you were able to get him for Wade Miley. It was a calculated risk, but Smith has years of control which means the value of the trade was not solely for 2016.
Yep. When he went down I was of the opinion that even if we lose a year to TJ, if he can come back strong it was more than worth it. Miley was expendable.
 

PapaSox

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There is a lot of dead weight in the organization:
Pablo 17.6
Castillo 11.271
Allen Craig 11.0 ... 39.871
 

PapaSox

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There is roughly $47 coming off the books - excluding Clay's $13.5
Abad 1.250 - replaced UNK
Light .500 Est
Escobar 550 Est
Koji 9
Hill 12
Ortiz 16
Tazawa 3.375
Ziegler 5.5
 
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PapaSox

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I see the pitching being
2017 starting staff:
Price
Porcello
Wright
Pomeranz
Rodriguez
(with Buchholz (Spot starts) and Johnson and Owens in AAA)

2017 bullpen:
Kimbrell
Ziegler (Resign)
Barnes
Ross
Tazawa (Resign)
Hembree
Long: Buchholz (Option)
Others: C.Smith, B.Workman, Kelly & Layne

Looks like another starter will be needed. My confidence in Owens is not at all strong. Maybe add someone like Hellickson and have him Long & Clay do MR.
 

Byrdbrain

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I found it pretty hard to believe that Aaron Hill made $12M and he doesn't, his actual salary is $6.5M.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I find it pretty hard to believe that the Sox will not have better options than re-signing Ziegler and Tazawa.

Or than picking up Buchholz's extension without a clear plan in place to trade him for a true need.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Z is a useful piece, we're just overextending his role due to injuries right now and paying for it.

Taz, thank you for 2013, but you are toasty.
 

Byrdbrain

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Odd I did a quick search and it came up at $6.5M, that may be the Sox prorated portion. Carry on.

Edit:I still find it hard to believe even though I know it is true.
 

grimshaw

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As much as we'd all love this to be true ... I'd suggest catcher is a question mark until it's proven that the Season of Sandy isn't just a one-year wonder
Sure - but I'm at least ready to rule out that his offensive floor isn't worse than Vazquez' now. And offense for catching around the league is total suck.