+1 this. Extend the kids, don't sign any big-money free agents and look for effective relief pitchers in the bargain bin.
Beyond 2016 - future needs
- Thread starter grimshaw
- Start date
As long as the Sox review through their own bargain bin first, this is the answer.
Even if you don't convert all of them, there's at least a half-dozen arms in AAA who don't have any place in a competitive MLB rotation.
You may be right ... $6.5 being the prorated rate amount ... the $12 may have been this years total
Vazquez' career wRC+ of 61?
That's a pretty tough abyss to jump back into when you have had 150 at bats like Sandy has.
He's had about 400 MLB plate appearances, not 150. Ignoring his previous results is done at risk. History is filled with players who had one great year, or one great 300 at-bat stretch
I'm arguing that catching isn't that big of a concern to me and that he'll outhit Vazquez, not that he's going to be anywhere near the hitter he is. I'd be thrilled if he is even league average. The position is thin outside of Ramos anyhow so finding a definitive upgrade would cost substantial resources that I'd rather spend in the pen.
This is absurd. You are talking about the same Sandy Leon who had an RC+ last season of 14? In 134 at bats last season, Leon hit .184/.238/.202
Leon's being a competent 700 OPS catcher was not that far fetched even before his recent explosion suggests higher potential.
As a 23 year old he had a very solid half season of 260 PA with an OPS in excess of 800 across AA, AAA, and the majors (not clear why it was a half season, must've been injured for part of it)
He also held his own at 21 in low A and at 22 in high.A, with OPS around 680 and a a decent walk rate, not terrible for a young catcher.
So, contrary to CW, this isn't the first time in his career he's shown promise in terms of offensive ability. He was beyond terrible in AA In 2013 and it would be nice to know what caused the collapse. Then he was only used as a part timer in 2014 and 2015, so can't really draw conclusions there.
And the reason I'm totally unconcerned about catcher next year is that Swihart will be fine and should never have been removed from the starting job this year in the first place.
As a 23 year old he had a very solid half season of 260 PA with an OPS in excess of 800 across AA, AAA, and the majors (not clear why it was a half season, must've been injured for part of it)
He also held his own at 21 in low A and at 22 in high.A, with OPS around 680 and a a decent walk rate, not terrible for a young catcher.
So, contrary to CW, this isn't the first time in his career he's shown promise in terms of offensive ability. He was beyond terrible in AA In 2013 and it would be nice to know what caused the collapse. Then he was only used as a part timer in 2014 and 2015, so can't really draw conclusions there.
And the reason I'm totally unconcerned about catcher next year is that Swihart will be fine and should never have been removed from the starting job this year in the first place.
I want two or three bullpen arms, depending on Workman's status. Target Jansen and Zeigler. Take Buchholz's option for 6th starter/long relief. Past that, start extending the kids, and anyone that gets shipped out (Hanigan, Holaday, Panda, maybe Shaw after Devers and Moncada are installed at 1st and 3rd next fall) in the next couple years needs to bring returns with the mass pitching exodus of the 2018 postseason in mind.
Vazquez has 8 fewer career plate appearances than Leon and is 30 points below him
They are both small samples, but yours is a small sample of a small sample.
What are you arguing exactly? What is a compelling reason that Vazquez will outhit him?
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For fuck's sake, if Leon doesn't work out, we already have Vazquez and Swihart. That's three chances to come up with one decent starting catcher.
We've got maybe two or three reliable arms, and that's only if we add up all the reliability in every reliever we have and pretend it's all in the same bodies.
We need at least four reliable arms and I'd like to have five or six that at least resemble reliable and bullpen arms are, so far as I can tell, the single most variable position in sports. We could bring in fifty relievers, get zero good ones out of it, and nobody would be even slightly surprised.
We have the rotation and lineup under contract to kick the shit out of this league next year, but that's not going to happen if we cannot come up with a bullpen that can hold a goddamn lead. Every single goddamn resource we have should be scouring our minor league system, everyone else's minor league system, Korea, Japan, the WBC qualifiers, and every other goddamn place we can find people playing baseball until we have the goddamn relievers we need.
We've got maybe two or three reliable arms, and that's only if we add up all the reliability in every reliever we have and pretend it's all in the same bodies.
We need at least four reliable arms and I'd like to have five or six that at least resemble reliable and bullpen arms are, so far as I can tell, the single most variable position in sports. We could bring in fifty relievers, get zero good ones out of it, and nobody would be even slightly surprised.
We have the rotation and lineup under contract to kick the shit out of this league next year, but that's not going to happen if we cannot come up with a bullpen that can hold a goddamn lead. Every single goddamn resource we have should be scouring our minor league system, everyone else's minor league system, Korea, Japan, the WBC qualifiers, and every other goddamn place we can find people playing baseball until we have the goddamn relievers we need.
At the start of this season Buster Olney said many around the league expect EE or Joey Bats to end up with the sox. And those rumors have persisted throughout this season (go check the replacing Ortiz thread for the links) And as we saw in the All star game Ortiz has already started the recruiting. And almost got fined by MLB for it.
You know, before 2004, I might have agreed with you, but now I get to be whatever the baseball equivalent of a privileged straight white guy is and say that I would rather lose than have Chapman on my team.
We can find someone else, and we should.
Rumors and Papi recruiting aside, this team doesn't need a costly free-agent bat to replace Ortiz at DH next year. It already has two in Hanley and Panda.
I just think he is saying that Leon is still a SSS situation and hasn't proven that his floor has risen. He has had a hell of a stretch and will likely get first crack to prove it is real next year but nothing is certain.
Could he have made his point less aggressively, sure but then he wouldn't be SF121.
Ras is correct the Sox have three options at catcher and they should be able to patch together an acceptable situation there without making any changes.
Problem is, they will get comparable offers from other teams and the Red Sox already have a closer. Jansen and Chapman are much more likely to sign with a team that doesn't have a closer. Most guys aren't like Andrew Miller, who doesn't care if he is the closer or not.
It is also worth noting that the Dodgers and Cubs might not let their closers go without a fight and they aren't small market teams. I seriously doubt Theo traded away Torres without the intention of signing Chapman long term.
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And I'm open to there being a chance it hasn't changed, but it isn't "absurd" the other way when both players haven't even had 400 career at bats and neither tore up the minors. P91 makes a good case about minor league tracker record as well. He was a solid on base guy, but there just wasn't any evidence of power whatsoever.
Two more point and I'll let it go.
1) Vazquez had over 700 at bats at the high A level where he did his best hitting and which is skewing his .713 career minor league OPS
Leon, in 2012 played at 4 different levels from Low A to the majors, so it's entirely possible his offensive development was stunted whereas in comparison Vazquez' had a chance to marinate a bit.
And 2) Though this is more weird than anything else. He is having the greatest offensive season in the history of baseball for catchers with 150 plate appearances wRC+ 188. That includes over 4900+ different seasons and hundreds of other freakishly great back up catcher seasons.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=150&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d
This is after having the 22nd worst season of all time among 5500+ catchers with 120 at bats. It's just absolutely unfathomable this has happened.
If he goes 0-100 his .ops drops to .637, well above his career average.
Ditto. It's so feel good and peaceful on the team now.
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I agree.
What about a guy like P.Alvarez for DH, would you keep away from him too? Let's say he doesn't cost a draft pick.
The more I look into Jansen the more I like him. Beyond wanting nothing to do with Chapman and his domestic abuse record (and thank you to all here who have been vocal about that), I think he's a great candidate for regression if his velocity starts to slip. Kenley on the other hand is looking like Mariano with an added sinker. He's a total control guy who should age really well; I'd be just fine with them offering him 7 years at 12-15 per if the length would get him to Boston. Sounds like he's pretty low key too; he might not have a problem taking the Andrew Miller role for the remainder of the Kimbrel contract.
One concern about Janson, considering DD's record in acquiring bullpen arms. He was twice on the DL a few seasons back due to this.
Panda is a piece of shit. OK, an eating disorder probably can be as difficult a condition to deal with as ADD or alcohol or drug addiction, but he's had, what, 8 years in the majors to try to deal with it? Pretty bad when one of the Giants announcers says it this year during a game telecast (Mike Krukow, early in the season), "I think he has an eating disorder." Outside of reports that Bochy and maybe Posey said to him he could be in better shape, I never heard of any stronger arm twisting. But yeah, what do the Red Sox do with him?
I would explore someone like Bats or EE but Mookie Xander and JBJ are your priority this offseason. Also, Smith will be returning you hope that takes care of the 8th inning. So assuming Taz and Ziegler both leave via FA and Koji retires then you're left with Barnes Abad to go with Kimbrel and Smith. Maybe Workman who is also someone that could really help if healthy this season. Who knows? The main priority needs to be Xander and Mookie.
I simply don't think a full-time DH is a priority, or even a need, for the Red Sox. Hanley's the obvious DH next year, with Shaw moving to 1B. Even if you don't like Shaw (and Sam Travis isn't ready to play first next year) it'd be better to sign a good-glove first baseman than a pure DH.
Even though the Sox have had the greatest DH-only player ever in their lineup, it'd be better if the DH slot were used to provide some flexibility. For example, could save some wear-and-tear on Pedroia by DHing him now and again.If Sandy Leon's hitting transformation is real, he could DH occasionally and you still have SwiVaz behind the plate.
The positional needs for this team are something like:
RP
RP
RP
SP
1B
3B
DH
Workman currently has a 6.94 ERA over 11.2 IP in his various rehab stints, has only reached AA, and has all of 18 PawSox games remaining to prove he can get minor league hitters out.
He shouldn't be included in any plans at all except in the way that Sean O'Sullivan should be included in the Red Sox plans for their 2017 rotation.
He'll have two options remaining, though, so it's certainly in the Sox interests to pencil him in as Pawtucket's closer or 8th inning guy. Maybe that means he can be 2018's Heath Hembree.
In fact, though, it actually may help the Sox most to give Workman starts in the minors, so that Elias and Johnson can both be converted to relief in Spring Training without losing too much starting depth. All things being equal, I absolutely think Elias could have beat out Layne for the LOOGY role this past March, and that he'll probably prove better than Abad next season, too.
Kelly, for sure, should either be given the Barnes treatment or perhaps traded. Maybe Dave Stewart still thinks he can start and wants to reunite him with his old roomie.
I don't think you can assume Smith will be back before the All-Star break and even in the modern era, not all TJ surgeries come back good as new. So, I'd view Smith as a potential trade deadline acquisition, for which a need always arises, and plan the offseason as if he doesn't exist.
With Workman having options left, planning on him being AAA depth also makes sense.
If they can get one elite 8th inning guy like Kenley or through a trade (Herrera from KC), I think Cecil and Storen are good bounce back candidates for the 6th and 7th inning roles. If you less performance risk but more injury risk you could go Madsen. That adds to Kimbrell, Barnes/Kelly, Ross, and Abad/Elias
I don't know that there is room for a straight DH on the roster next season, unless you dump Sandoval somehow.
Position players who are definitely on the roster:
2 catchers from: Leon, Vazquez, Swihart
Sandoval
Hanley
Shaw
Pedroia
Bogaerts
Betts
Bradley
Young
Benintendi (unless he completely collapses down the stretch)
Holt
So that's 12 players. And you'd like to have a guy who can fill in at SS, so Henandez or someone like him will probably be on the roster. If they can trade one of Shaw, Hanley, or Sandoval, then you have room to add a pure DH, I just think that wouldn't be likely. You could move Shaw I suppose, but I'd think you'd want to keep him in case Sandoval still stinks, which has a decent chance of happening. Moncada may not be ready right away to replace Sandoval either, if you'd like to throw out that option.
The starting pitching seems pretty locked down 1-5, with some options still in AAA to fill out the 6-8 slots.
They definitely could use a few more relievers, like others have said, and I think the free agents they have will be let go, and some fresh blood will be brought in. They have money to spend, and relievers don't require big cash or long terms, so it's the right timeline for them considering what it will take to lock up the young talent they have later.
Position players who are definitely on the roster:
2 catchers from: Leon, Vazquez, Swihart
Sandoval
Hanley
Shaw
Pedroia
Bogaerts
Betts
Bradley
Young
Benintendi (unless he completely collapses down the stretch)
Holt
So that's 12 players. And you'd like to have a guy who can fill in at SS, so Henandez or someone like him will probably be on the roster. If they can trade one of Shaw, Hanley, or Sandoval, then you have room to add a pure DH, I just think that wouldn't be likely. You could move Shaw I suppose, but I'd think you'd want to keep him in case Sandoval still stinks, which has a decent chance of happening. Moncada may not be ready right away to replace Sandoval either, if you'd like to throw out that option.
The starting pitching seems pretty locked down 1-5, with some options still in AAA to fill out the 6-8 slots.
They definitely could use a few more relievers, like others have said, and I think the free agents they have will be let go, and some fresh blood will be brought in. They have money to spend, and relievers don't require big cash or long terms, so it's the right timeline for them considering what it will take to lock up the young talent they have later.
Chapman was initially rumored to want to come back to the Yankees anyway, where we can properly hate on him. One more vote here for "no thanks" on Chapman.
Both I believe. He went on the DL in 2011 with irregular heartbeat, diagnosed with A-Fib. Went on the DL again late in the 2012 season and had offseason surgery to correct. Seems to have been a non issue since.
You definitely don't have room for a DH like EE if you keep Panda. Which should really be factored into the opportunity cost if of signing EE - you either dump Panda and pay full freight on his salary, or you go into the season with a woefully thin IF and hope for the best.
You basically have 11 hitters ticketed for the roster next year: Mookie, JBJ, AB, Young in the OF, Hanley, Pedey, X, Shaw and Holt on the IF, Leon and one of Vaz/Swihart catching.
You also have to consider that Moncada may come knocking at some point in 2017.
In the interest of summarizing some of the thinking, here are a couple options under discussion:
1. Stand pat (last two spots go to Panda and a UTIL).
Upside: no acquisition costs. Gives Panda a chance to recoup some value before a potential trade (or, I guess, maybe even play well enough to be an asset?). If Moncada is ready ahead of schedule, you can just plug him in for Panda.
Downside: If you think Shaw's 2016 split vs. LHP (.634) is more predictive than his career ML split vs LHP (.793), then you're not going to love choosing between him and Holt (.718 career vs. LHP) as your weak side of a 3B platoon. Or you could hope Panda rebounds to his career .673 split vs. RHP. The major downsides of this are 1) Panda might still suck ass, 2) the roster is weaker than it should be against LHP, and 3) the defense is likely worse than some of the other options below.
2. Add EE, drop Panda (last two spots are EE and a UTIL).
Upside: Better than option 1 vs. RHP both offensively and defensively, assuming EE continues to hit for another year or two. Adds an "elite middle of the order bat" to replace Papi, if that's your thing.
Downside: Costs a lot of money to sign EE and likely eat 100% of Panda's deal. Still has Shaw or Holt playing 3B against LHP. Not much positional flexibility.
3. Add EE, KEEP Panda, trade Shaw, sign Prado (or similar RHH 3B/IF type)
Upside: Don't have to eat Panda's deal. Lineup is death against LHP. Improve pitching or minor league depth by dealing Shaw.
Downside: Keeps Hanley playing 1B every day, unless Panda can do it a little bit. Infield defense is worse off. Panda might still suck. Prado (or whoever) might need a multi-year deal which could make it harder to bring up Moncada.
4. Sign Prado and Moss, dump Panda (or, generally, sign a RHH 3B and a LHH CI/DH/5OF)
Upside: Maximizes platoon advantages without a huge FA commitment to an aging DH. Lineup should play very well against both RHP and LHP with lots of good PH options to counter LOOGYs/ROOGYs. Basically gets you similar production to adding EE but with more versatility / less money, if guys are utilized correctly and perform.
Downside: Replaces a quarter with two dimes and a nickel on offense. IF depth is pretty thin, though that's mitigated by the fact that Holt almost never needs to start and Prado can play a little 2B. Same issue with potentially blocking Moncada or needing to move somebody if he's banging the door down.
I kind of like option 4, if it's doable, but suspect we will get something like option 1.
You basically have 11 hitters ticketed for the roster next year: Mookie, JBJ, AB, Young in the OF, Hanley, Pedey, X, Shaw and Holt on the IF, Leon and one of Vaz/Swihart catching.
You also have to consider that Moncada may come knocking at some point in 2017.
In the interest of summarizing some of the thinking, here are a couple options under discussion:
1. Stand pat (last two spots go to Panda and a UTIL).
Upside: no acquisition costs. Gives Panda a chance to recoup some value before a potential trade (or, I guess, maybe even play well enough to be an asset?). If Moncada is ready ahead of schedule, you can just plug him in for Panda.
Downside: If you think Shaw's 2016 split vs. LHP (.634) is more predictive than his career ML split vs LHP (.793), then you're not going to love choosing between him and Holt (.718 career vs. LHP) as your weak side of a 3B platoon. Or you could hope Panda rebounds to his career .673 split vs. RHP. The major downsides of this are 1) Panda might still suck ass, 2) the roster is weaker than it should be against LHP, and 3) the defense is likely worse than some of the other options below.
2. Add EE, drop Panda (last two spots are EE and a UTIL).
Upside: Better than option 1 vs. RHP both offensively and defensively, assuming EE continues to hit for another year or two. Adds an "elite middle of the order bat" to replace Papi, if that's your thing.
Downside: Costs a lot of money to sign EE and likely eat 100% of Panda's deal. Still has Shaw or Holt playing 3B against LHP. Not much positional flexibility.
3. Add EE, KEEP Panda, trade Shaw, sign Prado (or similar RHH 3B/IF type)
Upside: Don't have to eat Panda's deal. Lineup is death against LHP. Improve pitching or minor league depth by dealing Shaw.
Downside: Keeps Hanley playing 1B every day, unless Panda can do it a little bit. Infield defense is worse off. Panda might still suck. Prado (or whoever) might need a multi-year deal which could make it harder to bring up Moncada.
4. Sign Prado and Moss, dump Panda (or, generally, sign a RHH 3B and a LHH CI/DH/5OF)
Upside: Maximizes platoon advantages without a huge FA commitment to an aging DH. Lineup should play very well against both RHP and LHP with lots of good PH options to counter LOOGYs/ROOGYs. Basically gets you similar production to adding EE but with more versatility / less money, if guys are utilized correctly and perform.
Downside: Replaces a quarter with two dimes and a nickel on offense. IF depth is pretty thin, though that's mitigated by the fact that Holt almost never needs to start and Prado can play a little 2B. Same issue with potentially blocking Moncada or needing to move somebody if he's banging the door down.
I kind of like option 4, if it's doable, but suspect we will get something like option 1.
It's truly insane all right. You are talking about Corey Kluber, 2014 Cy Young winner. Corey Kluber who is signed to a very team friendly deal for the next five years. That Corey Kluber?
Why are the Indians saying yes to this deal, exactly?
File this under wild thoughts that are better left unspoken.
I have seen several people post something like this and I don't see why signing a full time DH and keeping Panda at least to start the year couldn't work.
The DH joins Beni, JBJ, Betts, Sandoval/Shaw, X, Pedey, Hanley and say Leon at catcher to make up the starting 9. That leaves 4 bench spots, 3 of which would be locked down by Sandoval/Shaw (CI), the backup catcher, and Young as the 4th OF. That leaves a spot for a middle infielder which could be Brock Holt (he is backing up SS right now) or Marco Hernandez if you don't think Holt can cover SS. But if you do go with Marco, then Holt doesn't really have a place on the roster, being basically a 5th OF only. IMO Brock is fine as an emergency/couple day only SS with Hernandez in AAA if there is DL required.
Sandoval/Shaw/Hanley rotate through 1B and 3B to minimize their bad splits. Sandoval gets half a season to show he still has some value while Moncada finishes polishing his skills in the minors. At mid-season, make a call and either trade him with some money attached (if he shows any bounce back) or DFA if he still sucks. As far as the money goes, he is getting it either way. The only way to recoup anything is to give him an audition for other teams. I think it would be very short sighted to waste the talent on this team by replacing Papi's production with a bad hitting Sandoval because he is too expensive to get out of town.
My main objection is that I would rather spend the twenty plus million it would take on the kids or a pitcher in the following off season. I also have concerns about giving that kind of money to a thirty four year old.
I specifically addressed this in my post. Who is playing 3B against LHP in this scenario? You've certainly improved at the DH slot but you're likely giving it all back by having a sub-.700 OPS hitter against LHP at one of the corners.
I agree, it would be very short sighted to "waste" this team by replacing Papi with Panda straight up. It would also be stupid to sink 120M or whatever it takes into an aging DH and still end up with a sub-replacement level 3B against LHP. There's no guarantee Moncada is ready to go in 2017 to bail you out.
Here is what the potential 25 man roster could look like:
David Price
Rick Porcello
Drew Pomeranz
Steven Wright
Eduardo Rodriguez
Clay Buchholz (swingman) - assumes they pick up his option, which will likely be determined by performance in the next 5 weeks
Bullpen
Craig Kimbrel
Reliable 8th inning set up (missing, but would require dropping one of those listed)
Matt Barnes
Robbie Ross Jr.
Joe Kelly
Junichi Tazawa
Fernando Abad
CATCHERS
Sandy Leon
Blake Swihart
Christian Vazquez
INFIELDERS
Hanley Ramirez
Dustin Pedroia
Xander Bogaerts
Travis Shaw
Pablo Sandoval
OUTFIELDERS
Andrew Benintendi
Mookie Betts
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Chris Young
Brock Holt - Utility
DISABLED LIST
Carson Smith
MINORS
Yoan Moncada
Deven Marrero
Josh Rutledge
Marco Hernandez
Bryce Brentz
Brian Johnson
Henry Owens
Heath Hembree
Noe Ramirez
Brandon Workman
Roenis Elias
So the obvious need is a reliable 8th inning set up man. Kelly or Barnes may end up being this pitcher, but certainly at this point it is a stretch to project Kelly to be reliable. Swihart or Vazquez would likely be off the 25 man roster to make room.
RS are set at starting pitcher (not that any team is really set)
BP - need a reliable 8th inning/semi-closer arm
IF - Need to figure that Shaw/Panda can be a 1 year bridge to Moncada
OF - should be set for years
DH - rotate to give player's rest especially Ramirez
I really don't see the RS need to sign an expensive DH, unless they package a couple of major leaguers in a trade to clear a roster spot (trading 3 nickels for a dime perhaps?). Instead Ramirez, Shaw, Panda will hold down 1B/3B with the DH being filled on a rotating basis to give rest to a starter. Then in late 2016 or in 2017, Moncada becomes the starting 3B, with Ramirez and Shaw covering 1B/DH. And by 2017, it will be extremely apparent if Panda has anything left or has eaten himself out of the league.
The roster is strong even without making a move. The roster does illustrate the benefit in trading 4 nickels for a dime if possible. Likely players to move in a trade - Shaw, Swihart or Vazquez (problem there is now that would be selling awfully low), 2 relievers, Buchholz I think picking up the option and trading is a good possibility). Of course, Panda is dead space and may end up eating 90% of contract just to move him.
It would be ideal to move Shaw, 1 catcher, 1-2 relievers, Buchholz, Panda (significant negative trade value), and a few mid tier prospects and replace them with the money saved/trade with Moncada (farm), an outstanding reliever(trade/free agent), a big hitting DH (free agent), a reliable #2/3 starter(trade).
David Price
Rick Porcello
Drew Pomeranz
Steven Wright
Eduardo Rodriguez
Clay Buchholz (swingman) - assumes they pick up his option, which will likely be determined by performance in the next 5 weeks
Bullpen
Craig Kimbrel
Reliable 8th inning set up (missing, but would require dropping one of those listed)
Matt Barnes
Robbie Ross Jr.
Joe Kelly
Junichi Tazawa
Fernando Abad
CATCHERS
Sandy Leon
Blake Swihart
Christian Vazquez
INFIELDERS
Hanley Ramirez
Dustin Pedroia
Xander Bogaerts
Travis Shaw
Pablo Sandoval
OUTFIELDERS
Andrew Benintendi
Mookie Betts
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Chris Young
Brock Holt - Utility
DISABLED LIST
Carson Smith
MINORS
Yoan Moncada
Deven Marrero
Josh Rutledge
Marco Hernandez
Bryce Brentz
Brian Johnson
Henry Owens
Heath Hembree
Noe Ramirez
Brandon Workman
Roenis Elias
So the obvious need is a reliable 8th inning set up man. Kelly or Barnes may end up being this pitcher, but certainly at this point it is a stretch to project Kelly to be reliable. Swihart or Vazquez would likely be off the 25 man roster to make room.
RS are set at starting pitcher (not that any team is really set)
BP - need a reliable 8th inning/semi-closer arm
IF - Need to figure that Shaw/Panda can be a 1 year bridge to Moncada
OF - should be set for years
DH - rotate to give player's rest especially Ramirez
I really don't see the RS need to sign an expensive DH, unless they package a couple of major leaguers in a trade to clear a roster spot (trading 3 nickels for a dime perhaps?). Instead Ramirez, Shaw, Panda will hold down 1B/3B with the DH being filled on a rotating basis to give rest to a starter. Then in late 2016 or in 2017, Moncada becomes the starting 3B, with Ramirez and Shaw covering 1B/DH. And by 2017, it will be extremely apparent if Panda has anything left or has eaten himself out of the league.
The roster is strong even without making a move. The roster does illustrate the benefit in trading 4 nickels for a dime if possible. Likely players to move in a trade - Shaw, Swihart or Vazquez (problem there is now that would be selling awfully low), 2 relievers, Buchholz I think picking up the option and trading is a good possibility). Of course, Panda is dead space and may end up eating 90% of contract just to move him.
It would be ideal to move Shaw, 1 catcher, 1-2 relievers, Buchholz, Panda (significant negative trade value), and a few mid tier prospects and replace them with the money saved/trade with Moncada (farm), an outstanding reliever(trade/free agent), a big hitting DH (free agent), a reliable #2/3 starter(trade).
We will have to spend a lot of money very soon to keep the kids, even if they all go year to year and go to arbitration. Having some room there would be safer, IMO. The team won't be worse next season, and if Moncada comes up and Benintendi sticks, it might even be better too. We still have a huge hole in the bullpen so we should be earmarking $30m to give three pitchers on 3-5 year contracts, which will perfectly overlap with the time we'll need to pay the kids big money.
The more I look at Jansen, the better he is. Low walk rate, high strikeout rate, high and consistent velocity, under 30. Kimbrel would be a good 8th inning guy, he's too unreliable to be the closer. Maybe Smith comes back strong and is a good 7th inning guy, but spending more money for someone for this spot would give us depth.
I agree. I prefer Hanley in the DH spot and I don't want the Red Sox to spend big money in free agency. However, I don't like Shaw at 1b--he has more value as a third base trade chip. I would like to find a good glove first baseman for next year, probably through a trade.
Sam Travis' injury was such bad timing. It is hard to know what the Red Sox have there. To be sure, he will need more time in the minors.
Going out on a limb: R.Castillo is having a strong August: 58 at bats with a .397 average thus far. Sure, probably BABIP luck, but what is interesting is that he has walked 8 times, with 9 ks. Has he learned the value of the walk and transformed himself as a hitter? If so, he may play a role on the 2017 team.
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Minor - but Tazawa will be a free agent, and hopefully someone else's gamble next year.
Sandoval and Shaw split time against LHP. Not every player can have a platoon partner. Most if not every team has players that have bad platoon splits and still start. The production out of 3B against LHSP (about 1/3 of games) would not negate having EE as full-time DH instead of Sandoval (or some one else who you would have to expend resources for).
There are 2 issues here: the roster and the payroll. I don't think it makes any sense to limit the offense's potential because they aren't sure what to do with Pablo. However, if the FO decides they can't spend money on a full time DH AND still extend the young guys/ upgrade the pen, then no I don't think they should sign EE or whoever. IMO with significant money coming off the books and a good chance that the luxury tax limit is raised with the new CBA, these are not mutually exclusive tactics. And if EE gets $120M, then I hope it is not from the Sox. I know that FA market has exploded, but guys who can exclusively DH (nevermind 34 year olds) just don't get paid that much. My guess is 4 yrs/$18-20 per and he can replace 90% of Papi's production.
Did this wild thought include slipping roofies to the entire Cleveland front office before attempting to pork them?
I think you're putting too much emphasis on Shaw and Sandoval as the only options necessitating a need for outside help.
1. Brock Holt has a slight reverse split for his career, though this year he has a pretty massive normal split in a very small sample. If his numbers revert to normal he's a .700 OPS 3B option that will already be on the roster.
2. In the Hanley to DH, Sandoval to 3B, Shaw to 1B alignment there is still room for an extra bench guy along with Holt to take time in the mix. Josh Rutledge for example will likely be back and over rather small samples the past three seasons he's posted LHP lines of:
2014 - 90 PA, .840 OPS
2015 - 26 PA, .748 OPS
2016 - 19 PA, .859 OPS
Very small samples to be sure and he's lost most of 2016 due to injury, but his across all levels LHP splits for the previous two seasons?
2015 - 139 PA, .874 OPS
2014 - 110 PA, .929 OPS
3. Beyond Rutledge the club also has Jantzen Witte, a 26 year old (will be 27 next year) 24th rounder from the 2013 class who, in part due to his age, has been pushed through the minors quickly but has hit well along the way, especially against LHP. His LHP splits:
2016 (AAA) - 83 PAs, .847 OPS
2015 (AA) - 72 PAs, .970 OPS
2014 (A) - 64 PAs, 1.121 OPS
2014 (LoA) - 62 PAs, 1.049 OPS
I'm not arguing that Witte is a real prospect, but he's going to be entering his physical prime, has hit throughout the minors while being on a fast track, and has especially hit LH pitching. I mean, using him as one of the options for a small side platoon role is exactly what you hope to get when drafting someone like Witte and all signs point to him being on track for deployment in such a role come the start of next season.
4. While Sam Travis was derailed with the ACL he was on an extreme fast track last season and is a highly advanced RH bat. He might not be ready for opening day but I would expect him to start in AAA and if he rebounds well he could be pushing for time at 1B very soon.
5. Blake Swihart is still out there as a recent top 25 prospect in all of baseball and prior to his trial in LF the consensus move off of C for him was to 3B where his strong arm could still give value. The club could re-visit that and enter next season with a Leon/Vazquez catching duo and Swihart working at 3B, able to move back behind the dish in a pinch, giving some PH/PR flexibility in close and late situations. This is more of a stretch than the other two, as you wouldn't want to move Swihart only to then move him again to make room for Moncada shortly thereafter, but if the vision for Swihart is as a utility guy he could find some real value by being able to run up both foul lines defensively (C, 3B, LF, 1B, RF) and likely has the athletic tools to do exactly that with a bat that makes him very intriguing in such a role (switch hitter who is naturally RH and has his best splits against LHP).
The in-house options are actually pretty expansive without even getting into when Moncada would be ready, though I doubt it'll be too far into 2017 before Yoan is making it hard to keep him in the minors any longer. He's as rare a talent as we've seen come through the farm and we've all watched Bogaerts, Betts, and now Benintendi burst onto the scene.