Beyond 2016 - future needs

Lowrielicious

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For me I'd love to get votto as his skillset and hitting intelligence lends itself to age very well. Although i can't see the Reds doing it for the price the sox would be willing to pay.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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For me I'd love to get votto as his skillset and hitting intelligence lends itself to age very well. Although i can't see the Reds doing it for the price the sox would be willing to pay.
Agree... think it would start at Benintendi/EdRo. If Reds are willing to put Votto on the table, I'd expect they'd require young/controlled MLB-ready talent or complete uber-prospects (e.g. Moncada/Devers, not Travis).
 

Devizier

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Given the lack of pressing needs on the roster, I'd rather the Sox make small/speculative moves rather than any splashy trades. Their outfield is set, and they can probably pull from organizational depth to fill in the bullpen (assuming Uehara is retiring). I would like to see Tazawa and Ziegler retained -- the mid-level market isn't going to produce much better. Maybe they could make a run at one of the Cubs' relievers (Chapman excepted) but I hope they don't go over market to sign those guys. Keep the powder dry until an obvious need arises.
 

johnnywayback

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Joey Votto has 10/5 rights, so while I think that's an interesting option (and I don't think it would cost a top prospect), it's an unlikely one.

I loved the idea of getting Prado to be Shaw-and-then-Moncada's platoon partner at 3B, as well as insurance in LF, but he re-signed with the Marlins. I'll be interested to see what Justin Turner costs on the free market -- he has a little bit of experience at 1B along with, obviously, plenty at 3B -- but if the Dodgers give him a QO, I'd probably rather not give up the draft pick.

Really, I think standing mostly pat is the right move. If you can't find league-average corner infield production out of Shaw, Sandoval, and whoever you find to replace/upgrade Hill, and Travis doesn't come fully back from the knee injury, and Moncada doesn't blossom, that's still a top-tier offense overall. And you can always find someone to rent in July to give Moncada (and, by then, Devers) until 2018.
 

NoXInNixon

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You think Votto would reject a trade from the Reds to the Red Sox? Why? The deal is far more likely to break down over the Reds asking for more than the Sox want to pay.
 

Broda

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Sep 12, 2016
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So MLB suspended him for shits and giggles? That wasn't even the first incident that police had to respond to at that house with Chapman and his girlfriend. If you think that the fact that there were conflicting stories or that the police couldn't get enough cooperation to press charges means there was "no evidence" of the physical stuff, I don't think we're going to find common ground on this. I think it's incredibly naive to just assume the physical violence was made up.

And again, you're not addressing the fact that he got angry enough to shoot the wall in his garage. That alone is enough to steer clear, but I don't think you can just assume the domestic violence accusations were made up.
Much like the Dalvin Cook situation, Chapman is a monstrous human being.

The chances of there being no physical marks if he did what was being reported is incredibly low.
 

Broda

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Sep 12, 2016
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Given the lack of pressing needs on the roster, I'd rather the Sox make small/speculative moves rather than any splashy trades. Their outfield is set, and they can probably pull from organizational depth to fill in the bullpen (assuming Uehara is retiring). I would like to see Tazawa and Ziegler retained -- the mid-level market isn't going to produce much better. Maybe they could make a run at one of the Cubs' relievers (Chapman excepted) but I hope they don't go over market to sign those guys. Keep the powder dry until an obvious need arises.
I think Taz is toast.

I'd like to keep Ziegler though.

There are some interesting guys out there.

Brett Cecil is a guy i'd like to get

Luke Hochevar is another.

Again I'll throw Greg Holland out there.

Unfortunately I think Petit's option is picked up, even though I wanted him last offseason.

Mike Dunn is another interesting lefty.

As is Boone Logan

There are some interesting mid tier RPs out there.

The question is what will they cost. I don't think there's O'Day money out there with any of the guys I've mentioned though.
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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Agreed on Taz and Zeigler. There was talk of Ziegler wanting to return to Arizona after this year; maybe if we put a ring on it he'll stay?

If Koji plows through October like he did in September, do you chance another year or two? How long does he even want to play?

I'd like to see Kelly and Scott be regular members of the bullpen.

And my heart's still set on picking up Jansen.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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You think Votto would reject a trade from the Reds to the Red Sox? Why? The deal is far more likely to break down over the Reds asking for more than the Sox want to pay.
He might reject it simply because he likes playing in Cincinnati and would rather not leave. Brandon Phillips vetoed a trade to Washington last winter, so the notion of wanting to stay in Cincinnati isn't exactly a wild one. Maybe they find it to be a nice place to live and work despite the fortunes of the team of late.
 

Broda

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Sep 12, 2016
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He might reject it simply because he likes playing in Cincinnati and would rather not leave. Brandon Phillips vetoed a trade to Washington last winter, so the notion of wanting to stay in Cincinnati isn't exactly a wild one. Maybe they find it to be a nice place to live and work despite the fortunes of the team of late.
A big part of that veto was because no one would pick up his option.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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We were talking about a potential Votto acquisition in the Wild Card game thread.

Votto is 32. He is owed $22 for 2017, and then $25 through 2023, with a $20m club option and a $7m buyout for 2024. So either 7/179 or 8/192, pending the option. That's a ton. I think the option gives it an AAV around 22. He'll be 40 in 2024.

Votto's left handed. He hits for considerable but not elite power (24 HR/600 PA), but hits for average very well and gets on base like very few other players this side of Barry Bonds. He's an amazingly disciplined hitter, who has had two seasons with more walks than Ks, and two more within three. He's popped up on the infield fifteen times in his career.

Career line: .313/.425/.536. OPS+ since age 23: 127, 125, 156, 171, 155, 177, 156, 125, 174, 160.

(Take a second and contemplate the possibilities: Betts, Bogaerts, Votto, Ramirez, Sandoval, Pedroia, Bradley, Catcher, Benintendi)

The Reds are bad. They probably won't be much good for a few years, and the Cubs look to hold onto that division for a few more years. By the time he could be the difference maker for the Reds, he'll likely be an older player. If they have any interest in getting out from under Votto's deal — and I'm not sure they do, but I see why they might — now's the time to do it. He's a sixth of their payroll.

I think a moderate prospect package (built around Sam Travis?), with the Reds eating $20-40m, is pretty reasonable.
Given the state of baseball profits these days even the Reds should not have a problem carrying Votto's salary. The contract should not be a problem for them going forward. In a vacuum he's overpaid going forward - especially as he ages. But the contract only becomes a problem if they need to pay their own homegrown future talent and add some quality FAs. So there's no immediate urgency to get rid of him.

On the other hand their IS an urgency to upgrade the farm system - so the most attractive incoming offers will be prospect heavy as opposed to a salary dump.

Sure - it would be nice to absorb 80% of the contract (which is probably his value) for a minimum prospect outlay - but I think its unlikely. If I'm the Reds I want multiple top 100 prospects even if it means eating 75% of the contract.
 

NoXInNixon

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He might reject it simply because he likes playing in Cincinnati and would rather not leave. Brandon Phillips vetoed a trade to Washington last winter, so the notion of wanting to stay in Cincinnati isn't exactly a wild one. Maybe they find it to be a nice place to live and work despite the fortunes of the team of late.
No one likes Cincinatti. People who live in Cincinatti dream of one day living in Cleveland.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Much like the Dalvin Cook situation, Chapman is a monstrous human being.

The chances of there being no physical marks if he did what was being reported is incredibly low.
Based on what? You're making a shitload of assumptions about that situation in order to dismiss a very real concern about him. You'll need to do more than wave your hand at it.

The reports I've read say he got angry and grabbed her by the throat up against the wall, but didn't cut off her ability to breathe, before her brother separated them. He then went to the garage and shot the wall 8 times. Why should the absence of marks mean the incident didn't happen?

You keep dismissing the domestic abuse accusation as though it's not a factor. You're going to need to bring something stronger than tossing in the name of another athlete from another sport who was exonerated to be convincing.

I maintain that he's not someone I want around Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Benintendi, Eduardo, etc. I don't care if it ends up costing them a draft pick to go in another direction.
 
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BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Much like the Dalvin Cook situation, Chapman is a monstrous human being.

The chances of there being no physical marks if he did what was being reported is incredibly low.
I'd encourage you to reconsider the phrase "monstrous human being". You don't know the man at all, really. What you think you know *about* him is certainly not good. But we all know that people are much more complex than that.

A lot of people think Belichick, for example, is a colossally arrogant ass, mainly because of how he treats the media in interviews and press conferences. But when you read stories from people who actually spend time with him, he's way way more humble and generous and caring and personable than he ever appears when a microphone is in front of his face.

Generally good people can do some awful things. Generally bad people can do some good things. You - like the rest of us - have this one image of Chapman now, and it's a pretty bad one. But any of us could lose it in a moment. I'm not defending his actions in any way. I'm just saying that when we read a story like this, we should be a little more careful about throwing out the phrase "he's a monstrous human being", when frankly, we don't really know the guy at all.

You use the phrase as you want. I'm just saying that even though he did a very bad thing, he's probably more complex than a simple "he's a monstrous human being" label would imply. He's probably not a "monstrous human being". He's probably a fairly normal guy that has some issues.

EDIT: Re-reading your post...maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying. Not sure now.
 

johnnywayback

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You think Votto would reject a trade from the Reds to the Red Sox? Why? The deal is far more likely to break down over the Reds asking for more than the Sox want to pay.
I mean, who knows, but he sure seems to not want to be traded:

"I absolutely love playing here," Votto said during Redsfest on Friday. "When all this trade stuff gets going, it's natural for a player to have that thought process and what would you consider? I just absolutely love playing here. I really like where I live. I like my team and my job. I like the location of the ballpark and the fans and the clubhouse and the uniform and the number on my back -- all the littlest things that people take for granted are very comfortable to me and something I look forward to. I don't think of myself as anything other than a Cincinnati Red. It's one of the really cool things about having a no-trade clause. I'm one of the rare players who has that. I get to stay a Cincinnati Red."​

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/158877538/joey-votto-wont-waive-trade-clause-with-reds/
 

nothumb

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Since when does being against domestic violence and reckless use of s firearm make one a "SJW"? We're not talking about a guy who made an insensitive remark or invaded somebody's safe space. There are plenty of examples of why you don't want to make an eight figure investment in a guy who is one loose waistband or bad ricochet away from maiming himself or going to jail (or both).
 

nvalvo

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I think we may need to pick up the option for his age-40 season to buy Votto's compliance, but I wouldn't read too much into comments made to the press at RedsFest. That's what the hometown fans want to hear from their star player, and rightly so.

I'm not so much advocating Votto, pending a sense of the price, than proposing him as another possibility for our 1B/DH picture alongside EE (33) and JB (35), especially as floated price tags for the slightly older Jays sluggers approach what Votto is himself owed.
 

Reverend

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Since when does being against domestic violence and reckless use of s firearm make one a "SJW"? We're not talking about a guy who made an insensitive remark or invaded somebody's safe space. There are plenty of examples of why you don't want to make an eight figure investment in a guy who is one loose waistband or bad ricochet away from maiming himself or going to jail (or both).
Yeah, anyone who wants to drag that kinda bs--by which I mean the broad dismissiveness towards other posters wondering if criminal history which we know is a factor in Boston sports team decision making anyway--is, well...

There are other message boards for people who want to drag discussion into that kind of crap. Anyone who needs to get their rocks off by acting like such concerns are beneath them is not gonna be long for this board.


Edit: Dismissiveness towards people for legitimate baseball reasons such as strong invocations of the fielding component of WAR, while not optimal, are granted more leniency, of course.
 

Clears Cleaver

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DD should be looking for pitching prospects in AAA. The franchise has little depth beyond the six guys named in this thread. Upgrades toOwens and Noe etc
 

Broda

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Sep 12, 2016
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I'd encourage you to reconsider the phrase "monstrous human being". You don't know the man at all, really. What you think you know *about* him is certainly not good. But we all know that people are much more complex than that.

A lot of people think Belichick, for example, is a colossally arrogant ass, mainly because of how he treats the media in interviews and press conferences. But when you read stories from people who actually spend time with him, he's way way more humble and generous and caring and personable than he ever appears when a microphone is in front of his face.

Generally good people can do some awful things. Generally bad people can do some good things. You - like the rest of us - have this one image of Chapman now, and it's a pretty bad one. But any of us could lose it in a moment. I'm not defending his actions in any way. I'm just saying that when we read a story like this, we should be a little more careful about throwing out the phrase "he's a monstrous human being", when frankly, we don't really know the guy at all.

You use the phrase as you want. I'm just saying that even though he did a very bad thing, he's probably more complex than a simple "he's a monstrous human being" label would imply. He's probably not a "monstrous human being". He's probably a fairly normal guy that has some issues.

EDIT: Re-reading your post...maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying. Not sure now.
I was referring to his SIZE. The dude is 6'4.
 

Broda

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Sep 12, 2016
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Heh. Well, like I said... It's possible that I misunderstood what you were saying. My apologies.

(though my larger point stands as a general principle)
Yeah that's fine.

Frankly I care far more about baseball stuff than anything else. If society says he's free to seek employment, that's enough for me. It would be very hypocritical of me to pretend I'm better than the justice system.
 

grimshaw

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We were talking about a potential Votto acquisition in the Wild Card game thread.

Votto is 32. He is owed $22 for 2017, and then $25 through 2023, with a $20m club option and a $7m buyout for 2024. So either 7/179 or 8/192, pending the option. That's a ton. I think the option gives it an AAV around 22. He'll be 40 in 2024.
That contract actually isn't all that bad if you assume a free agent win cost is at 8 mill and will go up 5% each year with inflation (not a guarantee, but considering it was 7 mill in 2013, it is on pace). By the time he hits 38 in 2022, the cost of a win will be closer to 10.5 mill, he won't have to do a whole lot to earn that, and shedding a 22 AAV contract will be really easy in 6 or 7 years.

Admittedly by the time he starts declining significantly, you would much rather go with a young cheap guy, but I actually think the contract is a little below market value right now. He'd probably make closer to 30 mill over 5 or 6 years if he were a free agent.

Here's a chart for cost of win over time. http://cdn2.sbnation.com/assets/3387523/YtY_Graph.jpg?_ga=1.38463459.1525825480.1475696962
I think it was stagnant for those 4 years before those tv contracts kicked in, but the money is still freely flowing and you don't hear teams crying poverty any more.
 
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nvalvo

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That contract actually isn't all that bad if you assume a free agent win cost is at 8 mill and will go up 5% each year with inflation (not a guarantee, but considering it was 7 mill in 2013, it is on pace). By the time he hits 38 in 2022, the cost of a win will be closer to 10.5 mill, he won't have to do a whole lot to earn that, and shedding a 22 AAV contract will be really easy in 6 or 7 years.
(snip)
These are all good points Grimshaw. I've also been thinking about the new CBA, which Manfred was just talking about as a fait accompli. It's hard to say from the outside, but no one would be surprised if the CBT thresholds went up pretty sharply in response to all of this new TV money, right?

That could increase the $/WAR ratio in a hurry in a way that might make contracts signed under the old CBA look affordable.
 

grimshaw

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These are all good points Grimshaw. I've also been thinking about the new CBA, which Manfred was just talking about as a fait accompli. It's hard to say from the outside, but no one would be surprised if the CBT thresholds went up pretty sharply in response to all of this new TV money, right?

That could increase the $/WAR ratio in a hurry in a way that might make contracts signed under the old CBA look affordable.
Agree. And even the smaller market teams like the A's and Rays who are pushing to move to more favorable venues, will likely have moved by then and thrown some cash around. The Yankees haven't set the market in a while either, so you have to think that's also coming.

Anyhow, yes on Votto.
 

TomRicardo

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I wouldn't worry about the DH unless there is someone out there that would be a bargain.

You have SS, 2B, LF, CF, RF all set. C is easily handled internally. That leaves you 1B and 3B.

Hanley especially towards the end of the year did not suck at 1B. I don't know if you really need to move him to full time DH. He was slightly below average defensive 1B this season.

That leaves 3B. You know Moncada is right there. Personally I would look to sell Pablo for a wad of used up chewing gum (paying most if not pretty much all of his contract) but you can roll the dice and let him compete for a spot against Shaw.

As for your bench, you have Chris Young as 4th OF and Holt as Super Utility. Backup catcher is easily an internal resource.

You have one (or two if you don't get a full time DH) spots left. Shaw eats one if Pablo wins 3B. The second should be SS / MIF so Marco Hernandez or Rutledge. If Pablo gets dumped, Brentz is out of options or you could have three catchers and move Swihart around though you might want him or Vasquez to play AAA. It also could be a taxi spot until Moncada is ready.

Unless there is a deal out there I think the positional spots are set from your internal pool of talent.

As for pitching:

Price
Porcello
Wright
Pomeranz
ERod

Buchholz (I would pick up his option)

You have Owens and Johnson so I would probably try to pick up some veteran SP as AAA RHP.

For relievers:

Kimbrel
Joe Kelly (who has been amazing in relief)
Robbie Ross

Then? Barnes has been all right. Maybe go after Ziegler again. You can give Elias and Buchholz spots.

Clearly the bullpen is what the Red Sox will need to work on.
 
Jun 27, 2006
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I think that Koji should be a thought as well. If they don't bring him back, I fear that he returns to Baltimore, since he still lives there. It would suck being shut down next year in the 8th by Koji before facing Britton.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think that Koji should be a thought as well. If they don't bring him back, I fear that he returns to Baltimore, since he still lives there. It would suck being shut down next year in the 8th by Koji before facing Britton.
If Koji still wants to pitch next year, I expect they'll sign him. My expectation is he retires as a Red Sox, which may be as soon as the post-season ends.
 

Plympton91

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Much like the Dalvin Cook situation, Chapman is a monstrous human being.

The chances of there being no physical marks if he did what was being reported is incredibly low.
The woman's brother happened to be at the house and got between them. You should have stopped at Aroldis Chapman is a monstrous human being. That is true in several meanings of the word monstrous. No thank you.

The Red Sox do need a left handed flame throwing set up man, however. Probably more than anything else. Then I'd probably look for a catcher who wouldn't suck if he had to catch 80 games, as Leon turned into a pumpkin, Vazquez can't hit, and Swihart's development was screwed up by stupidity and injury. Then maybe a similar move at 3B, but I think that persons name is Brock Holt, with Marco Hernandez taking the utility role if necessary.

They also appear to need a #1 starter, because they decided Newly minted #2 starter was worth $72 million more than John Lester.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think the rotation is set... Grab a capable 6th starter AAAA guy to a mL contract.

Offense could use someone other than Shaw to be a 1st baseman/3rd baseman/DH. I don't know who.... I wonder what it would take to pry Goldschmidt from Arizona since that team is a mess. They could use another middle of the lineup slugger but if... IF.... Panda can recover and stay healthy and trim he could at least make the lineup strong without a weakness top to bottom and then look to bring up Moncada after some growing and maturation in AAA.

Pedroia
X
Betts
Manny
?
Panda
Benintendi
Swihart
JBJ

The bullpen will be a dominant force. I think Taz is gone but Koji will be back for one more season. Carson Smith back... Barnes a little more mature and Kelley in a bullpen ace role.

I think the rotation is set and I think ERod is going to have a breakout dominant season. Price will be a little better. I think Pomeranz will also crank it up a notch and Porcello will continue. Next season will be a 97 win team and will make it to the World Series. Boom
 

grimshaw

the new rudy
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This is going to be a great team the next few years and possibly longer, barring injuries of course. It would be pretty devastating for this team if one or more starting pitchers was out for any length, moreso than any playoff team barring maybe Baltimore. This was a very healthy rotation this year for the most part and it's asking a lot to think it will continue.

Because of this, the priority should be finding a better way to identify and develop young pitchers into capable major leaguers, even if they are back end guys to keep things coming through the pipeline. Buchholz' option is now a no-brainer with zilch in the FA market in helping to bridge to Kopech. E-Rod is a definite step in the right direction but the whiff rate is still pretty high.

I hope they just stack drafting starters in the 2017 draft since they can afford to punt a year with positional players.

One of the blessings in disguise is that with the perma-DH spot unoccupied (pending Votto or EE) they can do a better job of keeping guys like Bogaerts and Betts off their feet a lot more often. SS in particular is such a demanding every day position, it's not really a surprise that X was so tired towards the end.

If Sandoval is somewhere between his disastrous 2015 and past performance, and Marco Hernandez and potentially Dubon are your utility guys by mid-season, along with Holt this could be a fantastic bench. And that's not even counting what Moncada could contribute if he can take the next step in 2017.
 
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