Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
I mentioned somewhere, here or in other thread, that the extra Jimmy touches in the playoffs have come at the expense of Bam who is not a very good shot creator/scorer. Bam is def a scoring fade this series.
Love posts like these!!
Yes, Butler had the quietest 29 points you’ll ever see last night. He got some bunnies on loose balls, garbage buckets, etc. I’d be looking at some Jimmy Unders in these next two games on the road bc his points is going to really be inflated.
I played Dallas +6 for normal size as well as the Over 214. I’m really looking forward to a big play on Dallas in G3 or G4, depending on the lead up (ex: Warriors win would likely lead to a a big Mavs play in G3).
Mavs bounce back really well off losses and G1 was an adjustment game going from the slow Phoenix pace to the Warriors motion, ball movement and pace. I attribute a lot of their poor shooting to this change in style and expect them to shoot better tonight. I also have my Mavs series bet pending which I still like.
I'm seeing +260 now on Heat to win the series. If I wasn't already loaded up on both sides of this I'd probably have to add some more on the Heat here.
I think Boston wins it but +260 is a crazy price for the #1 seed in a 1-1 series.
Edit: also something to look out for in GS/Dal is GS winning 3rd quarters. Forgot to come here and post last night but it has been a very profitable trend.
I think Boston wins it but +260 is a crazy price for the #1 seed in a 1-1 series.
Edit: also something to look out for in GS/Dal is GS winning 3rd quarters. Forgot to come here and post last night but it has been a very profitable trend.
I’m confused. What does loaded up on both sides mean? Are you trying to arb like 10% by betting each at + levels?
That was how I read it. If you put $100 on Celtics at like +150 after Game 1 and then another $100 at Heat +260 now.
If Celtics win, you’re up $50. If Heat win, you’re up $160.
Right, but he said he was already maxed out before we got to this point. So I was curious how much he was capturing vs the 40% odds on the Celtics winning the series after game 1
I had max bet at one book Heat +150 before the series started, then max at a different book Celtics +120 after game 1.
I also tried getting on Celtics -1.5 when they were down 1-0 but it was at one of the same books where I already had maxed on series bets.
I didn’t even know there were max bets on series lines. I’m pretty sure DraftKings doesn’t have one, but perhaps you’re going a different route. Obviously good if you can guarantee yourself a payout, but it seems like this book you’re giving up some opportunity cost.
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I am in MA where it's still not legal so I can only use offshore books.
They tend to have fairly low limits on futures bets and series lines and things like that.
As an example I was maxed at $500 on each side of the series line at 2 different books.
I am eagerly awaiting MA legalizing so I can use the domestic books.
Edit: just noticed BetOnline has a $10000 max on these bets, but then I'd have to find a 4th book with similar limits for something like this anyway. I am not normally doing arb stuff like this very often and my standard unit size is $100 so it's not something that's been a huge issue for me anyway.
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When I say “max” I’m referring to the limits that my locals put on my Pay Per Head account/site per game. I’m in FL where legalization is being battled in the courts between the state and Seminole Indians on one side vs local parimutuel wagering facilities such as horse stats and former dog tracks. I use locals and some BetOnline and Bookmaker.com.
I’m not touching the Total. I expect pace to begin slowing in the Boston games. I am playing some Butler Unders shortly.
Much to my surprise I found some Kyle Lowry props. Took Under 8.5 Pts where I could. I’m waiting to do my stuff in-game. I hate laying 6 so I’ll try and get -2.5 once Miami comes out to an early 1Q lead. If it never happens I’ll ride my series and championship tickets. LFG!!!
As soon as Ime ditches 2BIGZ against Miami we’ll be ok. He’s digging outselves a hole each game with this.
If you want to bet this I'd take the 1st half line.
Golden State plays really well 3rd quarter, and in general the trend of home teams down 0-2 having a rebound is even stronger if you just play them 1st half.
What @Joe Sixpack said.
I’ve got Dallas 1H pretty good at -2 and some ML too. I’m going to likely fade some Warrior role player props here. If you’re looking for some big prices I’d suggest the Double Result of Dallas/Golden St if your site offers it (they all should in playoffs). I got it at +500 small.
As far as tomorrow goes I already played some -7 in this great set up. I may look at some Double Result Bos/Bos too. The props fading Butler and Lowry pretty much split even. I’ll be looking to do same with Butler presuming Smart plays which I expect. Two games in a row with Butler being unable to do what he did in G1 yet the market keeps expecting it. I may go nuts and max fade (each gave small limits) anything that has to do with Butler points…..so Pts, Pts/Reb, Pts/Ast and P/R/A.
Edit: Oooops forgot to mention. I’ll also be looking at Under Miami’s Team Total. They can’t create offense against us and unless we lay another egg we won’t be starting their fastbreak with turnovers. I like this a lot assuming it is 99.5 which I expect. Even 98.5 I’m playing it hard.
Yes and the +500 double result was golden too. It’s a make or miss league. Dallas had all the wide open 3’s they could handle in the 1H and most rattled out. Not much you can do from there.
It’s also a “Golden State is a much better team than Dallas” league.
Haven’t paid too close attention to this thread, but for your sake, I hope you hedged after the beatdown in Game One?
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Even the GOATs miss some open threes.
Seems weird to come into this thread (especially when adding you haven’t been following it), defending your team when you’re euphoric, when people are sharing their views to help others and willingly sharing specific views that will frequently be wrong - particularly when they are betting underdogs. As opposed to other threads, where people mainly type to hear themselves speak, which it seems like you’ve carried over to this thread.
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Bringing this here from another thread. I expect the Celtics to win tonight but I don’t see a reason to pay money for the right to be required for us to win by 7+ to cash.
As has been the strategy I’ll be passing pregame and wait for Miami to get out to an early lead to get Boston -2.5. If I never see it I never see it…..I’ll be in other markets once I see the lineups later today.
Hey my handicap had the Mavs getting open threes all series but I’d never call Reggie “0-10” Bullock the GOAT.
If you told me Bullock and Kleber, the likely recipients of open threes all night, would shoot 0-15 I can assure you I would not have been on Dallas. I make same play in a G3 like this again.
Are there any bets that anyone has seen for tonight that they love?
It’s kind of tough to fall in love with anything with how the injury report is and potentially in flux the lineups could be..
however, I am seeing Bam at a 16.5 over/under for points. The only time this playoffs he’s been over that number 2 games in a row was against the Embiid-less Sixers…I’m pretty tempted to smash the under here even if TL is out
It’s kind of tough to fall in love with anything with how the injury report is and potentially in flux the lineups could be..
however, I am seeing Bam at a 16.5 over/under for points. The only time this playoffs he’s been over that number 2 games in a row was against the Embiid-less Sixers…I’m pretty tempted to smash the under here even if TL is out
I’ll be betting on Tatum and Brown point parlays. They should have very high volume.
That’s fair — normally I’d save the euphoric trashtalk for the game thread, but it seemed relevant here, since it was here where it was written “Dallas is the better team.” Fading the Warriors as the betting favorites is one thing — my sense is that’s generally good betting practice, since due to proximity to Vega$ and general glamour, the Warriors typically get more love from bettors than cold statistical analysis would indicate they should
But “Dallas is the better team” was never a good take; and my sense is the constant references in this thread to the Mavs’ bad luck with three point shooting gloss over the fact that the Warriors are also better at every position, much deeper, much more experienced and battle-tested, and much better defensively; and that they’ve been dominating the Mavs on the glass and in the paint.
Anyway, in the spirit of giving betting advice: I think it’s probably wise to keep fading the Warriors, for the reasons noted above, plus now the added recency bias from the way they’re beating down Dallas. Momentum often fails to carry over series to series (as Dallas has just demonstrated); and the Celtics in particular (if they get there) present a ton of matchup issues for GS that Dallas does not. GS at -180 is not a line I think anyone should touch.
At the same time, even in pure betting terms, I think it’s wise not to “underestimate the heart the heart of a champion.” And even in a betting thread, I think it’s a bit disrespectful to said champion to keep chalking their success up to three point variance. Like, how much of the Mavs’ clanging from 3 is variance, and how much is (1) young team with no players with much experience taking big shots on the biggest stage; and maybe more importantly (2) exhausted legs from chasing Steph, Klay, JP and co. around all game, while running a 7-man rotation? Daryl Morey whined a lot about the Rockets’ “bad luck” from 3 against the Warriors back in the day, too.
Anyway, I’ll move on now, and in the future will save the euphoria for the game thread and limit my contributions in this thread to helping you all get rich.
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Bam scored 15 second half points while Butler was out injured. All indication are that Butler will play, but if he’s limited, Bam gets far more usage with Butler on the bench.
Bam’s touches and scoring opportunities are closely related to Butler’s availability opposed to TL. If Butler is out you can probably get value on the Over but it will likely be adjusted for this. The best chance would be if Butler goes but comes out again but of course we won’t know this pregame. Personally I would never play Bam Under here bc there is a good chance he will be one of the Heat’s top two scoring options tonight but we won’t know (due to Butlers uncertainty to finish game).
Edit: What Senator Donut said. Hadn’t seen it when replying.
Great point and thank you for the reply.
As @BigSoxFan said, as of now, I think that the Tatum overs are pretty money…the rest are dependent on who plays.
As a side note, I really hate these Heat injury reports. Seems like they put the whole roster as “questionable”
Too many uncertainties with injury status to take much of a pregame position on Celtics/Heat tonight.
If Theis starts I will be looking at Miami race to 10/race to 20 and possibly look for in-game betting opportunities on the Celtics at a better number.
If Theis starts I will be looking at Miami race to 10/race to 20 and possibly look for in-game betting opportunities on the Celtics at a better number.
* Under 99.5 Miami Team Total
That’s is so far. Too many uncertainties at this point but Boston should come out defending like their season depends on it……because it does. Tonight is essentially the season on the line. I may add some other stuff such as 1H Under Miami but that’s the jist of my pregame action.
Will be on lookout to get Boston at better price early but low low low is the way to go here. I may even look at those adjusted totals to see how good a price I can get on Under 195.5 or even lower.
That’s is so far. Too many uncertainties at this point but Boston should come out defending like their season depends on it……because it does. Tonight is essentially the season on the line. I may add some other stuff such as 1H Under Miami but that’s the jist of my pregame action.
Will be on lookout to get Boston at better price early but low low low is the way to go here. I may even look at those adjusted totals to see how good a price I can get on Under 195.5 or even lower.
Big difference with Time Lord vs Theis though. I am gonna stay away from that bet tonight but will probably be live betting Celtics if Miami does take an early lead.
Pregame I am on Celtics over 106. I think the logic was sound last game although it didn't work out. And despite the loss if they had managed 1 or 2 fewer turnovers they would have likely had it.
If I had to name a dream score with 6:44 to go in the 1Q it very well could have been 12-1 Boston.
Played some small Miami +14.5 a couple min ago. I don’t like what I’m seeing here with our offense and Miami is eventually going to get settled in offensively.
Live bet over 192.5 after the 1st quarter. Think we will see some regression on the scoring.
Even if it's a defensive battle, that's a low total to clear.
Even if it's a defensive battle, that's a low total to clear.
Their should be an automatic payout booster when a team misses the line by 30 points.